A return to our roots in these parts, with a nod to the old Julian calendar, I'm celebrating Saturnalia around December 25. The Romans did things the right way I'd say, so let's get back to basics. A return to making Latin compulsory in schools should soon follow. That is if we had any sense.
Io! Saturnalia
December 24, 2017
December 22, 2017
UN Vote
The numbers are in and the UN General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly against President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel. What took my attention was the Israeli Ambassador using a prop, a replica of a 2,000 year old coin from the region:
https://worldisraelnews.com/danon-presents-replica-1st-century-coin-un-stressing-ancient-jewish-ties-jerusalem/
http://www.jewishpress.com/wp-content/uploads/Danon-exhibits-ancient-coin-at-UNGA-218x150.jpg
Isn't this a rather weak argument from Israel? I think that argument must go along the lines, because there were Jews in the region 2,000 years ago, that means the modern state of Israel gets to do whatever it likes with the city today. Which of course is nonsense, there is a thing called International Law you know.
Now Israel might have a claim if they could show an unbroken chain of governance stretching back that far. But wait, they can't, as any student of history will tell you about the first and second Roman-Jewish wars which the Romans won. They sacked Jerusalem and threw out the Jews, most becoming slaves. If we follow Israel's logic the rightful owners of Jerusalem is Italy, as the legitimate descendants of Rome. But wait, there's more, the Romans lost Jerusalem in the 7th century, so that would mean Turkey gets Jerusalem, according to the Israeli logic. Do you see? The argument as put just doesn't hold water.
So what now? Unpalatable as it may sound, my suggestion is for Palestine and the other states that surround Israel to either win some wars, or give up and trade Israel into oblivion. What are Arabs good at? They're traders first and foremost and good ones. But if going to war then make sure you win it as the winner gets to write the history. Oh no? Oh yes, what we know of Carthage and Troy comes only from the victors at the end of the day. Israel for its part could see the writing on the wall, observe the UN Resolutions and stop relying on the US to back it up as the US will just as soon throw them under the bus when it suits.
https://worldisraelnews.com/danon-presents-replica-1st-century-coin-un-stressing-ancient-jewish-ties-jerusalem/
http://www.jewishpress.com/wp-content/uploads/Danon-exhibits-ancient-coin-at-UNGA-218x150.jpg
Isn't this a rather weak argument from Israel? I think that argument must go along the lines, because there were Jews in the region 2,000 years ago, that means the modern state of Israel gets to do whatever it likes with the city today. Which of course is nonsense, there is a thing called International Law you know.
Now Israel might have a claim if they could show an unbroken chain of governance stretching back that far. But wait, they can't, as any student of history will tell you about the first and second Roman-Jewish wars which the Romans won. They sacked Jerusalem and threw out the Jews, most becoming slaves. If we follow Israel's logic the rightful owners of Jerusalem is Italy, as the legitimate descendants of Rome. But wait, there's more, the Romans lost Jerusalem in the 7th century, so that would mean Turkey gets Jerusalem, according to the Israeli logic. Do you see? The argument as put just doesn't hold water.
So what now? Unpalatable as it may sound, my suggestion is for Palestine and the other states that surround Israel to either win some wars, or give up and trade Israel into oblivion. What are Arabs good at? They're traders first and foremost and good ones. But if going to war then make sure you win it as the winner gets to write the history. Oh no? Oh yes, what we know of Carthage and Troy comes only from the victors at the end of the day. Israel for its part could see the writing on the wall, observe the UN Resolutions and stop relying on the US to back it up as the US will just as soon throw them under the bus when it suits.
December 19, 2017
UFO Investigation
Now we have official recognition of UFO sightings.
http://www.dw.com/en/the-us-pentagons-secret-investigation-into-ufos/a-41830522
The way I see this kind of thing is like this:
1. The Russians must have some scary technology, or
2. There's a lot of things happening in our atmosphere we just don't understand yet, or
3. People can do some clever tricks with cameras, or
4. The USA has some scary technology that it doesn't even tell its own military about, or
5. Some private individual has invented some clever stuff and not told anyone about it, or
6. There really are some unexplained or unexplainable extraterrestrial happenings.
On that last one, how come these extraterrestrials don't make contact? And once detected and they leave Earth, why can't we track them to see which direction they head? And once these intruders are out there and they hit their warp drive (or whatever you want to call it), how come we can't observe that too?
Okay so depressing thought of the day; we need to get over it, right now, as things stand, we're alone in the observable universe. This is not to say that there has never been other intelligent life, or that there won't be after we're gone, but right now we're it. At least that's my guess. But heh, I like to speculate along with everyone else.
http://www.dw.com/en/the-us-pentagons-secret-investigation-into-ufos/a-41830522
The way I see this kind of thing is like this:
1. The Russians must have some scary technology, or
2. There's a lot of things happening in our atmosphere we just don't understand yet, or
3. People can do some clever tricks with cameras, or
4. The USA has some scary technology that it doesn't even tell its own military about, or
5. Some private individual has invented some clever stuff and not told anyone about it, or
6. There really are some unexplained or unexplainable extraterrestrial happenings.
On that last one, how come these extraterrestrials don't make contact? And once detected and they leave Earth, why can't we track them to see which direction they head? And once these intruders are out there and they hit their warp drive (or whatever you want to call it), how come we can't observe that too?
Okay so depressing thought of the day; we need to get over it, right now, as things stand, we're alone in the observable universe. This is not to say that there has never been other intelligent life, or that there won't be after we're gone, but right now we're it. At least that's my guess. But heh, I like to speculate along with everyone else.
December 15, 2017
Sand Wars
I watched the documentary Sand Wars on al Jazeera recently, it was interesting but ultimately came up short, and that's because the documentary lacked balance and became emotive.
I know something about sand. Some may call me an expert on the subject but I wouldn't go that far, I'd call myself a specialist. That said there are several things to consider about sand and where to find it, how to process it. Sand is critical for construction, the oceans, and our coastlines. We can't have a civilisation without sand and our environment is jeopardised if we extract too much ot it. So what is the answer? That's what I'm going to deal with here:
1. Natural or Man-made?
The above documentary never once considered quarried rock being transformed into sand. They did have someone at an aggregate trade show or conference saying that all the natural deposits of sand and gravel had been taken away. That is nonsense.
There is a rule in the sand business; first find a natural deposit. This can be quite difficult as a lot of factors need to be considered when searching for a suitable extraction pit. Such things as distance to market or end-user, ease with which the resource can be extracted, the physical properties of that resource having a bearing on just how much processing is involved, water sources and so on. But increasingly regulation and the NIMBY effect come into it as well. There is a lot of natural, clean sand out there, you're just not allowed to touch it because of that last factor.
So what now then? You have to manufacture that sand at your already operationally consented rock quarry. This is not an easy exercise and involves complex machinery which can be very expensive. Even when set up the end-product can be of much lesser quality than the natural equivalent. It doesn't have to be, but man is fallible and they don't always get it right.
Is sand running out? The short answer is No.
2. Sand from the Sea or Beach.
This is generally not the answer as salt comes with the sand. Sand dredged from below the sea is not as heavy with salt as beach sand is, but this source of sand still requires further processing, or thorough washing before it can be used in construction. The documentary said that buildings in Tangiers may fall down because they're built with sand from the sea. If the sand is salt ridden then the structures would be weakened over time due to the rusting of the reinforcing steel inside the concrete. The buildings would be fine if that sand had been washed sufficiently or simply came within specification without further processing.
How much sand comes from dredging operations? Much less than you're led to believe. Ships are a pain in the arse and you can't see below the water. Even land based dredging from wet pits or lakes is thwart with difficulty. I've seen the figures on this and sand dredging is still the little bedfellow on the block in terms of the whole.
3. Recycling and Blending.
Not just glass, but concrete can be recycled also. Valuable sand and other aggregates can be re-extracted. This extends the life of existing in-ground resources. But also overlooked is blending the sand. That is, taking some man-made, some natural and maybe some recycled resource and blending them together. A pugmill or similar process can do this most effectively.
4. Concrete
There are few alternatives to this amazing stuff called Portland Cementous Concrete. Our world does not function without it and we have got to learn to manage it. People talking about straw bale houses is not the answer. Yes we can use wood and steel and such but what the Romans knew all along and the rest of the world woke up to in the nineteenth century is that Concrete is the answer. If in doubt concrete it.
If you have a sand deposit and don't know what to do with it, or need help in any way, then please contact me using the contact form on this page. I'm here to help.
I know something about sand. Some may call me an expert on the subject but I wouldn't go that far, I'd call myself a specialist. That said there are several things to consider about sand and where to find it, how to process it. Sand is critical for construction, the oceans, and our coastlines. We can't have a civilisation without sand and our environment is jeopardised if we extract too much ot it. So what is the answer? That's what I'm going to deal with here:
1. Natural or Man-made?
The above documentary never once considered quarried rock being transformed into sand. They did have someone at an aggregate trade show or conference saying that all the natural deposits of sand and gravel had been taken away. That is nonsense.
There is a rule in the sand business; first find a natural deposit. This can be quite difficult as a lot of factors need to be considered when searching for a suitable extraction pit. Such things as distance to market or end-user, ease with which the resource can be extracted, the physical properties of that resource having a bearing on just how much processing is involved, water sources and so on. But increasingly regulation and the NIMBY effect come into it as well. There is a lot of natural, clean sand out there, you're just not allowed to touch it because of that last factor.
So what now then? You have to manufacture that sand at your already operationally consented rock quarry. This is not an easy exercise and involves complex machinery which can be very expensive. Even when set up the end-product can be of much lesser quality than the natural equivalent. It doesn't have to be, but man is fallible and they don't always get it right.
Is sand running out? The short answer is No.
2. Sand from the Sea or Beach.
This is generally not the answer as salt comes with the sand. Sand dredged from below the sea is not as heavy with salt as beach sand is, but this source of sand still requires further processing, or thorough washing before it can be used in construction. The documentary said that buildings in Tangiers may fall down because they're built with sand from the sea. If the sand is salt ridden then the structures would be weakened over time due to the rusting of the reinforcing steel inside the concrete. The buildings would be fine if that sand had been washed sufficiently or simply came within specification without further processing.
How much sand comes from dredging operations? Much less than you're led to believe. Ships are a pain in the arse and you can't see below the water. Even land based dredging from wet pits or lakes is thwart with difficulty. I've seen the figures on this and sand dredging is still the little bedfellow on the block in terms of the whole.
3. Recycling and Blending.
Not just glass, but concrete can be recycled also. Valuable sand and other aggregates can be re-extracted. This extends the life of existing in-ground resources. But also overlooked is blending the sand. That is, taking some man-made, some natural and maybe some recycled resource and blending them together. A pugmill or similar process can do this most effectively.
4. Concrete
There are few alternatives to this amazing stuff called Portland Cementous Concrete. Our world does not function without it and we have got to learn to manage it. People talking about straw bale houses is not the answer. Yes we can use wood and steel and such but what the Romans knew all along and the rest of the world woke up to in the nineteenth century is that Concrete is the answer. If in doubt concrete it.
If you have a sand deposit and don't know what to do with it, or need help in any way, then please contact me using the contact form on this page. I'm here to help.
December 14, 2017
Charles Barkley Saying It
Charles Barkley backing Doug Jones for the Senate seat in Alabama. He totally Rips Roy Moore and Steve Bannon, well said Mr Barkley:
December 06, 2017
Stop Banning Russia
It has to stop. Banning Russia from Olympic competition is a bad idea. Russia and all Russians take sport seriously and they're not going to just lay down. Face facts people, all countries conduct doping of their athletes, all that is being proven right now is that Russia is behind the latest technology. That's all, so bring them up to speed fast and we can all go back to enjoying their talent along with all the other pharmaceutically enhanced specimens from the rest of the industrialised world.
Of course the current ban on Russia from attending the Winter 2019 Olympics is political. It's designed to show Russia who is in charge, payback for countless perceived wrongs whether that be in Syria or the Crimea, the Ukraine, wherever. Of course Russia will retaliate in their own time and in their own way, why stir them up? It makes no sense to me.
Of course the current ban on Russia from attending the Winter 2019 Olympics is political. It's designed to show Russia who is in charge, payback for countless perceived wrongs whether that be in Syria or the Crimea, the Ukraine, wherever. Of course Russia will retaliate in their own time and in their own way, why stir them up? It makes no sense to me.
December 01, 2017
America First
I've just thought of a new conspiracy theory. Someone else may have come up with this, sorry if this has been thought of before, but this is my original. Okay? Here goes:
Donald Trump is looking to get himself fired, impeached, stood own; whatever it takes to be deposed. What he then intends doing is setting up a rival party to the GOP called America First or similar, run along far right lines. This would explain his re-tweets of the Britain First deputy leader's tweets. He'd then promote this new party through social media and Fox. A chilling prospect but not inconceivable.
What do you think?
Donald Trump is looking to get himself fired, impeached, stood own; whatever it takes to be deposed. What he then intends doing is setting up a rival party to the GOP called America First or similar, run along far right lines. This would explain his re-tweets of the Britain First deputy leader's tweets. He'd then promote this new party through social media and Fox. A chilling prospect but not inconceivable.
What do you think?
November 29, 2017
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle
Prince Harry and American actress Meghan Markle are to tie the knot. The following NY Times article outlines the facts: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/28/world/europe/uk-royal-wedding-harry-meghan-markle.html
There is no problem with Ms Markle holding dual citizenship, many often do. Later down the line can you imagine a President of the US also being the Monarch of the UK and its Commonwealth? Never say never eh. I noticed Twitter mentions on the subject. But the thing to look forward to is more diversity being brought into the royal family. Yay.
There is no problem with Ms Markle holding dual citizenship, many often do. Later down the line can you imagine a President of the US also being the Monarch of the UK and its Commonwealth? Never say never eh. I noticed Twitter mentions on the subject. But the thing to look forward to is more diversity being brought into the royal family. Yay.
November 26, 2017
NBA: OKC Look Average
The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost their last two games in the NBA. Two words explain their poor form - Carmelo Anthony.
That's it really, nothing more to say, apart from noting that they're now a team of ball hogs, everyone playing for themselves and not the team as a whole. There is no "i" in team.
That's it really, nothing more to say, apart from noting that they're now a team of ball hogs, everyone playing for themselves and not the team as a whole. There is no "i" in team.
November 22, 2017
Zimbabwe 2017
Zimbabwe's leadership squabbles are dominating the news at the moment. It seems everyone at the top is jockeying to take over from Robert Mugabe who has been Zimbabwe's leader for the last 37 years.
What I have noticed is commentators repeatedly saying Zimbabwe is wrecked, or words to that effect. Really? I'd call wrecked a city like Hamburg in 1945. Is Harare in that condition? The news footage seems to show the opposite, people appear well dressed, the streets clean and tidy, the buildings are all standing straight and the cars are relatively late model. Has no-one noticed this? How can a country with 90% unemployment have people so well nourished and apparently quite well off by African standards.
What I think is going on is that Zimbabwe functions satisfactorily. Most must be in some kind of employment. What I suspect is employers are hiring people on a purely cash basis for a few hours a day and not paying tax. The employees for their part may say the're not in full time employment which is essentially true but disguises what is really going on. Zimbabwe in these circumstances has an empty exchequer, but life goes on for everyone else.
As for political power; the army may be divided into factions while Zanu-PF may also be divided. Things could go downhill very fast, let's hope not as this country looks to have all the makings of great prosperity.
Update: Robert Mugabe has now resigned and in a move that looks dodgy, Emmerson Mnangagwa will serve out the rest of Mugabe's term. But wait, is that constitutional? The Vice-President position is held by two people appointed by the President. Mnangagwa has been dismissed and removed from office, which leaves Phelekezela Mphoko to take over from Mugabe. Correct? I think that's right, so if Mnangagwa takes over that looks illegitimate to my eyes, not a good start.
For a more objective view of what got us here check out my Fixing Zimbabwe post a while back. No-one read it at the time, but I nailed it JICYDK.
Update: Robert Mugabe has now resigned and in a move that looks dodgy, Emmerson Mnangagwa will serve out the rest of Mugabe's term. But wait, is that constitutional? The Vice-President position is held by two people appointed by the President. Mnangagwa has been dismissed and removed from office, which leaves Phelekezela Mphoko to take over from Mugabe. Correct? I think that's right, so if Mnangagwa takes over that looks illegitimate to my eyes, not a good start.
For a more objective view of what got us here check out my Fixing Zimbabwe post a while back. No-one read it at the time, but I nailed it JICYDK.
November 20, 2017
What if Ken Starr Was Right?
In light of the Harvey Weinstein revelations it occurred to me that maybe we need to rethink Bill Clinton. I found the following op-ed interesting:
The sexual misconduct was the heart of things, but everything connected to Clinton’s priapism was bad: the use of the perks of office to procure women, willing and unwilling; the frequent use of that same power to buy silence and bully victims; and yes, the brazen public lies and perjury.
November 17, 2017
Elon Musk's Electric Truck
When is Elon Musk going to go bust? Can this happen sooner please as this guy is seriously annoying. On top of making poor cars (see my earlier post about this), he's now setting out to do the same with heavy transport vehicles.
See the link >> https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/17/elon-musk-tesla-electric-truck-sports-car-surprise
But wait a minute, electric trucks are nothing new. They've always been used in transport, the following is a list of useful locations where an electric truck comes into its own:
1. Indoors and anywhere ventilation matters,
2. Where there is a lot of stop/starting, (like inner city deliveries)
3. Where noise is a consideration.
The internal combustion engine comes into its own when you're talking about long runs; diesel especially for the distance and petrol for the power it delivers. Hence, for instance, Russian military trucks like the Zil are petrol, their army needs to be able to move fast and forage for fuel and petrol allows for both. Diesel comes into its own when you're looking for cheaper horsepower while running without stopping.
So Musk's idea is what exactly? A dumb idea is the answer.
See the link >> https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/17/elon-musk-tesla-electric-truck-sports-car-surprise
But wait a minute, electric trucks are nothing new. They've always been used in transport, the following is a list of useful locations where an electric truck comes into its own:
1. Indoors and anywhere ventilation matters,
2. Where there is a lot of stop/starting, (like inner city deliveries)
3. Where noise is a consideration.
The internal combustion engine comes into its own when you're talking about long runs; diesel especially for the distance and petrol for the power it delivers. Hence, for instance, Russian military trucks like the Zil are petrol, their army needs to be able to move fast and forage for fuel and petrol allows for both. Diesel comes into its own when you're looking for cheaper horsepower while running without stopping.
So Musk's idea is what exactly? A dumb idea is the answer.
November 16, 2017
New Zealand v Peru
Today we find out which team will be the last to qualify for the World Cup in Russia next year. Can minnow New Zealand do the business against world number 10 Peru? You betcha, the Kiwis are much better than their ranking suggests. bear in mind they rarely play at full strength.
The pressure will be on Peru, who must win. A simple draw involving goals means NZ goes through on the away goals rule (the first contest was a nil-all draw).
[Update; Peru 2 - NZ 0. Peru were much the better team]
The pressure will be on Peru, who must win. A simple draw involving goals means NZ goes through on the away goals rule (the first contest was a nil-all draw).
[Update; Peru 2 - NZ 0. Peru were much the better team]
November 14, 2017
Lies About New Zealand - Feedback
It looks like the enemies of New Zealand and NZ's fair and wide ranging superannuation system are out and about. I've noticed a bump in readers and I have received some feedback. All feedback so far starts off with an insult of some kind and then takes umbrage when I insult them right back. That's right, an orchestrated campaign has started, all repeating the same talking points.
Let's make this very simple for the idiots out there who want a free lunch. You are not entitled to anything the law of New Zealand says you're not entitled to. And on the subject of national superannuation the law is very clear; you only get one state pension. That's it, get this in your thick skulls you handout mentality losers. If you or your partner are in receipt of a state pension from another jurisdiction, that may mean you lose all entitlement in Kiwiland (of course you should).
Why is this so important? The answer to that question is also very simple. If those people who want to double dip (in effect) are allowed to get away with it then the NZ superannuation system will crash. It will become defunct. Here's why - read carefully - NZ has only 4.5 million people. Outside good old Kiwiland there are - wait for it - billions upon billions of people. Many of these people are retired with state pensions they can transfer to NZ if they wish. Certainly there are tens if not hundreds of millions of this kind. Get the idea? We cannot have a situation where the hard working taxpayer in NZ subsidises the state pensions of other countries. And it's even more ludicrous to think this subsidy would be the result of this or that NZer wanting to shack up with a foreigner. There we have it in one fell swoop, the family structure of NZ undermined and a bankrupt pension system.
Conclusion: if you think you're hard done by in New Zealand, I suggest you go somewhere else and stop stinking the place up.
Let's make this very simple for the idiots out there who want a free lunch. You are not entitled to anything the law of New Zealand says you're not entitled to. And on the subject of national superannuation the law is very clear; you only get one state pension. That's it, get this in your thick skulls you handout mentality losers. If you or your partner are in receipt of a state pension from another jurisdiction, that may mean you lose all entitlement in Kiwiland (of course you should).
Why is this so important? The answer to that question is also very simple. If those people who want to double dip (in effect) are allowed to get away with it then the NZ superannuation system will crash. It will become defunct. Here's why - read carefully - NZ has only 4.5 million people. Outside good old Kiwiland there are - wait for it - billions upon billions of people. Many of these people are retired with state pensions they can transfer to NZ if they wish. Certainly there are tens if not hundreds of millions of this kind. Get the idea? We cannot have a situation where the hard working taxpayer in NZ subsidises the state pensions of other countries. And it's even more ludicrous to think this subsidy would be the result of this or that NZer wanting to shack up with a foreigner. There we have it in one fell swoop, the family structure of NZ undermined and a bankrupt pension system.
Conclusion: if you think you're hard done by in New Zealand, I suggest you go somewhere else and stop stinking the place up.
November 11, 2017
O Canada!
What the hell just happened at APEC? Canada's Justin Trudeau was a no show at the TPP meeting. It looks to me like the US is putting pressure on Canada to not do the deal. Hmm?
[edit to add: OK so now we have the CP-TPP, so named I guess to put this near the top of any alphabetical list of such agreements. This new agreement looks better all round.]
[edit to add: OK so now we have the CP-TPP, so named I guess to put this near the top of any alphabetical list of such agreements. This new agreement looks better all round.]
November 10, 2017
TPP: Just Get On With It
The most important trade meetings taking place right now are at APEC. This year the meeting is in Vietnam and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will be on the minds of all those countries signed up for it. There have been a few speed wobbles but now everyone involved should get on board and just do it. Enough talk already. Even with the US out there is a lot at stake. The Pacific is set to rocket and we all need trade.
November 08, 2017
Readers
From time to time I report the breadth of this blog in terms of readership. The top countries for the past month were (in order):
France
Russia
United States
New Zealand
Canada
Australia
UK
Ireland
Ukraine
Brazil
Good to see Brazil and Australia beginning to read my thoughts and considered opinions. Welcome aboard. The USA has been deposed from the top spot, probably because I haven't been talking about US this and that so much.
My second novel The Crushing Son has begun to sell in both the physical and digital form. Yay. It's not a bad read, give it a try. Please buy the paperback, I make more that way. Amazon has an interesting business model, they appear to still favour the physical product of bound books over their own Kindle. I don't understand why but they're probably right given they're taking over the sale of books worldwide.
For my next novel I'm considering bleeding one or two chapters onto Wattpad, what do you think?
France
Russia
United States
New Zealand
Canada
Australia
UK
Ireland
Ukraine
Brazil
Good to see Brazil and Australia beginning to read my thoughts and considered opinions. Welcome aboard. The USA has been deposed from the top spot, probably because I haven't been talking about US this and that so much.
My second novel The Crushing Son has begun to sell in both the physical and digital form. Yay. It's not a bad read, give it a try. Please buy the paperback, I make more that way. Amazon has an interesting business model, they appear to still favour the physical product of bound books over their own Kindle. I don't understand why but they're probably right given they're taking over the sale of books worldwide.
For my next novel I'm considering bleeding one or two chapters onto Wattpad, what do you think?
November 06, 2017
NatTube: Not Really
My second survey of the AM Show took place today between 7 and 8am. National didn't get a single mention so I'm going to back down and say I was wrong. The AM Show are quite fair minded.
All mentions that directly related to New Zealand politics were clearly references to Labour, or one or more of their coalition partners. The AM Show did so generally positively 11 times and negatively 7 times. Included in those 7 times was a 42 second rant against Labour from both Duncan Garner and Mark Richardson who used the old anti-left canard of the "hypocrisy of the left". Nothing surprising from Richardson, he's the ugly face of conservatism in New Zealand. I'd be surprised if he's ever read a book.
But the audience expect nothing else really and there was so many positive mentions of Labour that I'd go so far as to say that their rant makes them look balanced. It's likely to reinforce the positive mentions of Labour, not boost National.
What of National now? They're spent and you have to place the blame firmly at the feet of the staggeringly incompetent Simon "Bill" English.
[A follow up survey 13/11/17, 7-8am showed more positive about Labour than negative, despite that hour being dominated by CPTPP talk. Only the one positive mention of National. This illustrates the difficulty of being in opposition, they can't get heard at all. Well they deserve it so I won't be crying.]
All mentions that directly related to New Zealand politics were clearly references to Labour, or one or more of their coalition partners. The AM Show did so generally positively 11 times and negatively 7 times. Included in those 7 times was a 42 second rant against Labour from both Duncan Garner and Mark Richardson who used the old anti-left canard of the "hypocrisy of the left". Nothing surprising from Richardson, he's the ugly face of conservatism in New Zealand. I'd be surprised if he's ever read a book.
But the audience expect nothing else really and there was so many positive mentions of Labour that I'd go so far as to say that their rant makes them look balanced. It's likely to reinforce the positive mentions of Labour, not boost National.
What of National now? They're spent and you have to place the blame firmly at the feet of the staggeringly incompetent Simon "Bill" English.
[A follow up survey 13/11/17, 7-8am showed more positive about Labour than negative, despite that hour being dominated by CPTPP talk. Only the one positive mention of National. This illustrates the difficulty of being in opposition, they can't get heard at all. Well they deserve it so I won't be crying.]
November 03, 2017
Astros World Champions
Congratulations to the Houston Astros on winning their first World Series. Now c'mon Rockets, win the NBA playoffs. It'd be nice to think the Texans could add the Superbowl as well.
November 01, 2017
AM Show aka NatTube
I can report progress on my survey of the AM Show on New Zealand's TV3 and whether they're really National Party TV.
What I do is throw dice to determine which day and what hour I'll be surveying. The first hour drawn was today, Wednesday the first day of November. The time surveyed was one hour between 8 and 9am.
Early days I know, but so far there is no evidence of bias. If anything the bias is pro Labour. I divide up which side is being mentioned, National or Labour (Labour includes all parties in government), and whether they're treated predominantly positively or negatively.
During the one hour in question, Duncan Garner talked for 40 seconds predominantly positively about Labour. He did not mention National and nor did Mark Richardson. The news segments presented by Amanda Gillies contained initiatives announced by Labour and these were handled even-handedly.
My readers will be aware that when I surveyed NBA games I found obvious bias, proving NBA regular season games are rigged. Well, so far no obvious bias from the AM Show. I'll keep randomly sampling. Funny thing was my wife saw my survey sheet ready on the coffee table and she left a note and a hand drawn emoji warning me not to get too upset with Mark Richardson as he's known to be a Nat. I called her to thank her for being so thoughtful but she needn't have worried, Richardson didn't offend.
More on this later and a report on the overall results.
What I do is throw dice to determine which day and what hour I'll be surveying. The first hour drawn was today, Wednesday the first day of November. The time surveyed was one hour between 8 and 9am.
Early days I know, but so far there is no evidence of bias. If anything the bias is pro Labour. I divide up which side is being mentioned, National or Labour (Labour includes all parties in government), and whether they're treated predominantly positively or negatively.
During the one hour in question, Duncan Garner talked for 40 seconds predominantly positively about Labour. He did not mention National and nor did Mark Richardson. The news segments presented by Amanda Gillies contained initiatives announced by Labour and these were handled even-handedly.
My readers will be aware that when I surveyed NBA games I found obvious bias, proving NBA regular season games are rigged. Well, so far no obvious bias from the AM Show. I'll keep randomly sampling. Funny thing was my wife saw my survey sheet ready on the coffee table and she left a note and a hand drawn emoji warning me not to get too upset with Mark Richardson as he's known to be a Nat. I called her to thank her for being so thoughtful but she needn't have worried, Richardson didn't offend.
More on this later and a report on the overall results.
October 31, 2017
AM Show aka National Party TV
The AM Show is a New Zealand weekday breakfast TV show. It's a lightweight attempt at current affairs, most of the guests are conservative and the views expressed are generally right-of-centre. That said, I think in the run up to the recent General Election and in the weeks after they've crossed the line and become an organ of the National Party. To recap, National are now in opposition as they lost the General Election and are out of office.
How I think the AM Show tried and still tries to support National is in the relentlessly favourable coverage they provide. This support extends to all levels, even right down to captions, with the National party leader Simon "Bill" English being described recently as 'National Leader' instead of Leader of the Opposition. With the former title one could be confused about his actual role.
So what I'm going to do is run a survey just to check if I'm right. I'll listen to three hours of the AM Show, each separate hour chosen randomly on any given day (also chosen randomly). What I'll be listening for is either National being mentioned or the government which could be Labour, NZ First or the Greens. How many times does the AM Show mention either and in what proportion?
Then I'll be listening for generally favourable comments. How I'll determine this will be going by how the commentator leaves the viewer or listener (the show is also simulcast on radio).
For example, imagine a new road is being announced. What I think the AM Show do is boost National but detract from Labour. What they'd say is something like this:
"Labour has announced a new road, 'bout time I'd say, where's the money coming from? (Labour spokesperson comes on and makes sense in pointing out National failed to build the road). Trust Labour to have not done their sums."
Then when National have their say (remember National had planned this road but never built it):
"The very capable Steven Joyce will be all over this, over to the money man, what about this then (Steven Joyce speaks with little interruption). Well that's the final word then, trust National to sort this mess out."
Clearly in such an exchange the intention is to create a generally favourable impression of National, wouldn't you say? I don't know why New Zealand puts up with it, there could be a good argument for having TV3's licence to broadcast suspended.
And a sidebar, the presenters are white and middle class. Duncan Garner is the so-called 'star' who wrote an offensive and deeply racist opinion piece for the Sunday Star Times awhile back, while the sports guy is a former cricket player for NZ. Cricket is largely white and who you know not how good you are largely determines selection. His name is Mark Richardson (you are not expected to recognise the name and few know what he has done despite his repeatedly reminding the audience he once played for NZ's biggest sporting chokers) and he openly endorsed National prior to the election.
When TV3 next goes bust, I suggest the frequencies be allocated to Radio New Zealand and let them run a TV news channel.
How I think the AM Show tried and still tries to support National is in the relentlessly favourable coverage they provide. This support extends to all levels, even right down to captions, with the National party leader Simon "Bill" English being described recently as 'National Leader' instead of Leader of the Opposition. With the former title one could be confused about his actual role.
So what I'm going to do is run a survey just to check if I'm right. I'll listen to three hours of the AM Show, each separate hour chosen randomly on any given day (also chosen randomly). What I'll be listening for is either National being mentioned or the government which could be Labour, NZ First or the Greens. How many times does the AM Show mention either and in what proportion?
Then I'll be listening for generally favourable comments. How I'll determine this will be going by how the commentator leaves the viewer or listener (the show is also simulcast on radio).
For example, imagine a new road is being announced. What I think the AM Show do is boost National but detract from Labour. What they'd say is something like this:
"Labour has announced a new road, 'bout time I'd say, where's the money coming from? (Labour spokesperson comes on and makes sense in pointing out National failed to build the road). Trust Labour to have not done their sums."
Then when National have their say (remember National had planned this road but never built it):
"The very capable Steven Joyce will be all over this, over to the money man, what about this then (Steven Joyce speaks with little interruption). Well that's the final word then, trust National to sort this mess out."
Clearly in such an exchange the intention is to create a generally favourable impression of National, wouldn't you say? I don't know why New Zealand puts up with it, there could be a good argument for having TV3's licence to broadcast suspended.
And a sidebar, the presenters are white and middle class. Duncan Garner is the so-called 'star' who wrote an offensive and deeply racist opinion piece for the Sunday Star Times awhile back, while the sports guy is a former cricket player for NZ. Cricket is largely white and who you know not how good you are largely determines selection. His name is Mark Richardson (you are not expected to recognise the name and few know what he has done despite his repeatedly reminding the audience he once played for NZ's biggest sporting chokers) and he openly endorsed National prior to the election.
When TV3 next goes bust, I suggest the frequencies be allocated to Radio New Zealand and let them run a TV news channel.
October 30, 2017
Lies About New Zealand
From time to time I take to task those who peddle misinformation about New Zealand. Be careful I say, as the writers often have an agenda or are just plain stupid.
The latest example of this came to my attention through Twitter of all places. This is the offending website: http://www.nzpensionprotest.com/Home/the-fight/nz-pension-abuse-website
The arguments as put up by these people are confused and incomprehensible. What I was able to discern from them was they want to be able to double-dip in effect, that is, receive an overseas pension AND have their Kiwi partners also receive a single person pension in NZ as well; all the while living in the blissful harmony of Aotearoa New Zealand.
Err, but no you don't get to do that at all. For the record, NZ has one of the most broad and non-discriminatory pension schemes you'll find - anywhere. But one thing you cannot do is get paid more than others. Everyone who qualifies gets paid the same, singles get what other singles get, married the same as other married and so on. If a millionaire and single you get the same as homeless and single.
Now you may debate the sense of doing this and that would be fine, but what will never happen is a retired person getting paid while the pension income from overseas exceeds what is allowable.
[edit to add "who qualifies" after everyone, third line second to last paragraph]
A partner website of the above link with no contactable address and more of the same attacks, all apparently intended to damage New Zealand, can be found here: http://nzpensionabuse.org.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/index.html
[Essentially the above sites are fake news. The websites may sound legalistic in nature but they constitute propaganda and you have to wonder who is paying for it. Funnily enough a robust refutation of all their claims can be found hidden on their own website. This comes from a government official called Iona Holsted: >The Ministry of Social Development Does Not Raid Overseas Pensions<
Of importance in the above guidance from Holsted is the third paragraph starting with the words 'where a person's overseas pension is higher...' (ignore the underlining - the person who does that cannot comprehend what is written all that well).]
[Edit to add: All correspondence on this matter is now closed. Readers may guess that a successful and widely read blog like mine, read in literally every country of the world, receives a few dipsticks. Most of them are selling something. And they're often Asian. Nice try but they're just deleted. But this lot are the exception, they constantly contact with the same entitled bullshit, attacking New Zealand and me, all the while wanting a free lunch. Read the link you bludgers, the one from the Ministry of Social Development, Iona Holsted nails it. Stop looking for a free lunch, and stop attacking New Zealand.]
The latest example of this came to my attention through Twitter of all places. This is the offending website: http://www.nzpensionprotest.com/Home/the-fight/nz-pension-abuse-website
The arguments as put up by these people are confused and incomprehensible. What I was able to discern from them was they want to be able to double-dip in effect, that is, receive an overseas pension AND have their Kiwi partners also receive a single person pension in NZ as well; all the while living in the blissful harmony of Aotearoa New Zealand.
Err, but no you don't get to do that at all. For the record, NZ has one of the most broad and non-discriminatory pension schemes you'll find - anywhere. But one thing you cannot do is get paid more than others. Everyone who qualifies gets paid the same, singles get what other singles get, married the same as other married and so on. If a millionaire and single you get the same as homeless and single.
Now you may debate the sense of doing this and that would be fine, but what will never happen is a retired person getting paid while the pension income from overseas exceeds what is allowable.
[edit to add "who qualifies" after everyone, third line second to last paragraph]
A partner website of the above link with no contactable address and more of the same attacks, all apparently intended to damage New Zealand, can be found here: http://nzpensionabuse.org.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/index.html
[Essentially the above sites are fake news. The websites may sound legalistic in nature but they constitute propaganda and you have to wonder who is paying for it. Funnily enough a robust refutation of all their claims can be found hidden on their own website. This comes from a government official called Iona Holsted: >The Ministry of Social Development Does Not Raid Overseas Pensions<
Of importance in the above guidance from Holsted is the third paragraph starting with the words 'where a person's overseas pension is higher...' (ignore the underlining - the person who does that cannot comprehend what is written all that well).]
[Edit to add: All correspondence on this matter is now closed. Readers may guess that a successful and widely read blog like mine, read in literally every country of the world, receives a few dipsticks. Most of them are selling something. And they're often Asian. Nice try but they're just deleted. But this lot are the exception, they constantly contact with the same entitled bullshit, attacking New Zealand and me, all the while wanting a free lunch. Read the link you bludgers, the one from the Ministry of Social Development, Iona Holsted nails it. Stop looking for a free lunch, and stop attacking New Zealand.]
October 28, 2017
2017-18 NBA Season
The new NBA season is under way and the season promises to be a good one with more close games. The usual easy beats aren't so easy to beat this season. For instance, the Washington Wizards look very promising despite going down to the Golden State Warriors in their latest game. Also looking good are the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Across the league more pressure is being applied by defenses to perimeter shooters, about time I'd say. This kind of pressure was evident from the Golden State/Wizards game, with shot selection being the decider in my opinion. Questions would need to be asked of the Wizards coach too, his was a poor display, allowing his team to give up a considerable lead.
I'm going to predict the OKC Thunder will struggle and may not even make the playoffs. A big call I know but I'll explain my view in two words, Carmelo Anthony.
Across the league more pressure is being applied by defenses to perimeter shooters, about time I'd say. This kind of pressure was evident from the Golden State/Wizards game, with shot selection being the decider in my opinion. Questions would need to be asked of the Wizards coach too, his was a poor display, allowing his team to give up a considerable lead.
I'm going to predict the OKC Thunder will struggle and may not even make the playoffs. A big call I know but I'll explain my view in two words, Carmelo Anthony.
October 26, 2017
Donald Trump - Is He Unhinged?
It has occurred to me that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, may actually be unhinged and should therefore be removed from office. That's not to say he isn't sometimes right. But when he's right it appears to be more a case of a stopped clock being right twice a day rather any Trump wisdom.
Bear in mind he actually inherited his fortune and the company that bears his name employs some capable people. And if Trump had simply invested in a safe Wall Street fund he'd be a lot richer than he is now. He's actually gone backwards on where he was when he took over from his father when taking the S&P indexes into account.
This latest incident where the President took issue with the widow of a US soldier is another example of his unhinged state. I believe the widow's version and that of Congresswoman Frederica Wilson. No doubt the President had the name of the fallen soldier written down in front of him, but Donald Trump is so out of it, he can't even read. Now that is something to think about.
The precedent for taking steps to remove Trump lies in the events of 1987, when senior staff closely observed Ronald Reagan for any evidence of instability. In that case Reagan performed satisfactorily and so stayed on. Perhaps a similar watch needs to be kept of Trump.
Bear in mind he actually inherited his fortune and the company that bears his name employs some capable people. And if Trump had simply invested in a safe Wall Street fund he'd be a lot richer than he is now. He's actually gone backwards on where he was when he took over from his father when taking the S&P indexes into account.
This latest incident where the President took issue with the widow of a US soldier is another example of his unhinged state. I believe the widow's version and that of Congresswoman Frederica Wilson. No doubt the President had the name of the fallen soldier written down in front of him, but Donald Trump is so out of it, he can't even read. Now that is something to think about.
The precedent for taking steps to remove Trump lies in the events of 1987, when senior staff closely observed Ronald Reagan for any evidence of instability. In that case Reagan performed satisfactorily and so stayed on. Perhaps a similar watch needs to be kept of Trump.
October 24, 2017
Get Ready For Boom Times Ahead
The incoming Labour-NZ First government has just announced a one billion dollar regional development initiative. This comes on top of Labour's first big promise, 100,000 new homes. With a Labour government a construction boom always follows. It's as sure as any certainty you can get in business.
So everyone will have to put up with the Greens stomping on mining. We'll all just have to wait to deal with them later, hopefully in three years time at the next election when it becomes obvious even to the few who voted for them that they're just communists re-branded. And New Zealand will have to put up with all the political correctness, like low flow shower heads and long life light bulbs. But that will be a small price to pay really, when you consider how much money and jobs are going to be on offer with all the construction that will be occurring.
And don't feel sorry for National. Don't miss them for a minute. They didn't handle the economy that well, all that happened was they inherited the work done by the very capable Michael Cullen. Then they did stupid things like stopping contributions to the Cullen Fund. They hated poor people and preferred to see them living out of old cars instead of providing them affordable accommodation. The Christchurch rebuild stalled, Auckland got its own way on everything, the army shrivelled to almost nothing. The list goes on and on.
Simon "Bill" English - resign and go and get your first real job.
So everyone will have to put up with the Greens stomping on mining. We'll all just have to wait to deal with them later, hopefully in three years time at the next election when it becomes obvious even to the few who voted for them that they're just communists re-branded. And New Zealand will have to put up with all the political correctness, like low flow shower heads and long life light bulbs. But that will be a small price to pay really, when you consider how much money and jobs are going to be on offer with all the construction that will be occurring.
And don't feel sorry for National. Don't miss them for a minute. They didn't handle the economy that well, all that happened was they inherited the work done by the very capable Michael Cullen. Then they did stupid things like stopping contributions to the Cullen Fund. They hated poor people and preferred to see them living out of old cars instead of providing them affordable accommodation. The Christchurch rebuild stalled, Auckland got its own way on everything, the army shrivelled to almost nothing. The list goes on and on.
Simon "Bill" English - resign and go and get your first real job.
October 19, 2017
Labour - NZ First Coalition Government
The numbers are in and New Zealand is going to have a new government made up of Labour and NZ First in a formal coalition arrangement with the Greens supporting on confidence and supply. National will be the opposition yet be the largest single bloc of votes with 56 seats in the House of Representatives.
How did this happen? Three things to consider, and please note most pundits have got this completely wrong because, quite simply, they don't know what they're talking about.
The first thing to remember is that both Labour and NZ First campaigned on effecting change. National were seeking a fourth term in office and played an undermining of all others strategy without a support brand of their own to help get them over the line. This was doomed to failure from the start. Simon "Bill" English is a grade A loser as I've said all along. What National needed was National Lite, or Labour Right to help them out, not the largely discredited ACT party.
The second part of the equation lies within NZ First. Contrary to many widely held opinions, NZ First is made up of approximately 60% old-school Labour. At NZ First meetings they can be oft heard using terms like 'what about the workers' or some such. These people joined NZ First as they hate the modern Labour party and its membership of teachers, nurses and social workers. When listening to the modern Labour party all the old-school can hear is flub-flub-flub. So they go to NZ First to join others of like mind then after the meeting head to the Pub to play darts and drink beer. Only about 20% of NZ First are old-Nats, and they are there because the new National party is an undemocratic institution that tells its membership what to think all the time. Policy descends from the top with new-Nats. Then lastly 20% of NZ First are new to politics. They are often Asian, Indians mostly, drawn to NZ First policies of regional development and looking after small businesses.
The NZ First membership is not old either, forget that thinking as National has a much older average age of membership by comparison. Winston Peters would be mindful of his party make-up when deciding who to go with.
Then lastly we have what Labour and National are like to deal with. We have to consider past dealings. National are dishonest in their dealings, they give a lot away up front but then look to undermine and stab their partner in the back. However Labour, while hard to get concessions from, are more likely to honour any arrangement. Compare 1996 with 2005 to see my point from Mr Peters perspective.
It's a no-brainer really and I'm glad I got this right. It's going to be funny seeing Paula Bennett on the AM show with Duncan Garner, no more Princess-waiting-to-be-Queen behaviour from her. That is, if she even shows up again.
How did this happen? Three things to consider, and please note most pundits have got this completely wrong because, quite simply, they don't know what they're talking about.
The first thing to remember is that both Labour and NZ First campaigned on effecting change. National were seeking a fourth term in office and played an undermining of all others strategy without a support brand of their own to help get them over the line. This was doomed to failure from the start. Simon "Bill" English is a grade A loser as I've said all along. What National needed was National Lite, or Labour Right to help them out, not the largely discredited ACT party.
The second part of the equation lies within NZ First. Contrary to many widely held opinions, NZ First is made up of approximately 60% old-school Labour. At NZ First meetings they can be oft heard using terms like 'what about the workers' or some such. These people joined NZ First as they hate the modern Labour party and its membership of teachers, nurses and social workers. When listening to the modern Labour party all the old-school can hear is flub-flub-flub. So they go to NZ First to join others of like mind then after the meeting head to the Pub to play darts and drink beer. Only about 20% of NZ First are old-Nats, and they are there because the new National party is an undemocratic institution that tells its membership what to think all the time. Policy descends from the top with new-Nats. Then lastly 20% of NZ First are new to politics. They are often Asian, Indians mostly, drawn to NZ First policies of regional development and looking after small businesses.
The NZ First membership is not old either, forget that thinking as National has a much older average age of membership by comparison. Winston Peters would be mindful of his party make-up when deciding who to go with.
Then lastly we have what Labour and National are like to deal with. We have to consider past dealings. National are dishonest in their dealings, they give a lot away up front but then look to undermine and stab their partner in the back. However Labour, while hard to get concessions from, are more likely to honour any arrangement. Compare 1996 with 2005 to see my point from Mr Peters perspective.
It's a no-brainer really and I'm glad I got this right. It's going to be funny seeing Paula Bennett on the AM show with Duncan Garner, no more Princess-waiting-to-be-Queen behaviour from her. That is, if she even shows up again.
October 14, 2017
DIY Investing
Back in June I picked PACCAR Inc., here: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/06/paccar-inc.html
Had my readers taken heed and invested, their investment would be up 16%. Check out my portfolio: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
What I say is this: take your own counsel and buy shares directly through a broker. Do not buy into funds, or funds of funds, and eschew financial advice from so-called professionals. All that happens when following investment advisers and funds is they'll take away most of the gains in fees. Do It Yourself, be conservative and look for value.
Had my readers taken heed and invested, their investment would be up 16%. Check out my portfolio: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
What I say is this: take your own counsel and buy shares directly through a broker. Do not buy into funds, or funds of funds, and eschew financial advice from so-called professionals. All that happens when following investment advisers and funds is they'll take away most of the gains in fees. Do It Yourself, be conservative and look for value.
October 11, 2017
NZ General Election 2017: The Numbers
This is how things stack up in the House of Representatives in New Zealand following the final count of the General Election 2017.
National: 56 seats, Labour 46, NZ First 9, Greens 8, ACT 1.
Possible coalitions therefore, in order of likelihood (need 61 seats to form a government). Note that ACT has become irrelevant:
National 56 + NZ First 9 = 65
Labour + Greens + NZ First = 63
Labour + NZ First 55 + Greens on Confidence and Supply = 63
National 56 + NZ First on Confidence and Supply = 65
National + Labour = 102
National + Greens = 64
If we take the top three options as being far more likely than the bottom three, then we can see that National are left stranded. Labour are in the box seat with more options for how they form a government. It is worth mentioning that only Labour increased its share of the vote this time round. Everyone else slipped and this must play on the minds of the leaders during negotiations.
National: 56 seats, Labour 46, NZ First 9, Greens 8, ACT 1.
Possible coalitions therefore, in order of likelihood (need 61 seats to form a government). Note that ACT has become irrelevant:
National 56 + NZ First 9 = 65
Labour + Greens + NZ First = 63
Labour + NZ First 55 + Greens on Confidence and Supply = 63
National 56 + NZ First on Confidence and Supply = 65
National + Labour = 102
National + Greens = 64
If we take the top three options as being far more likely than the bottom three, then we can see that National are left stranded. Labour are in the box seat with more options for how they form a government. It is worth mentioning that only Labour increased its share of the vote this time round. Everyone else slipped and this must play on the minds of the leaders during negotiations.
October 10, 2017
Duncan Garner
Duncan Garner's recent rant in a Sunday paper in New Zealand was definitely racist. More telling is that he defended his words on the AM show the next day.
He's all façade. He's also lightweight as he goes on an on and on. Massively. (Yes I'm copying his poor style).
I have found a very good slap down here: https://discrepancie.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/im-not-racist-but-an-open-letter-to-duncan-garner/
I see parallels between Garner's snake imagery and that used by Fritz Hippler in the Nazi propaganda film The Eternal Jew (1940). Hippler depicted rats running in the sewers, a clear reference to the notion of the wandering Jew. Garner doesn't want wandering mobs of the wrong type of person in his queue at Kmart.
He's all façade. He's also lightweight as he goes on an on and on. Massively. (Yes I'm copying his poor style).
I have found a very good slap down here: https://discrepancie.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/im-not-racist-but-an-open-letter-to-duncan-garner/
I see parallels between Garner's snake imagery and that used by Fritz Hippler in the Nazi propaganda film The Eternal Jew (1940). Hippler depicted rats running in the sewers, a clear reference to the notion of the wandering Jew. Garner doesn't want wandering mobs of the wrong type of person in his queue at Kmart.
September 29, 2017
Colin Kaepernick: To Take a Knee or Not?
I've been thinking about the issue of NFL players taking a knee during the playing of the US national anthem. The trend was apparently started by Colin Kaepernick of the San Francisco 49ers. Kaepernick is now unemployed and likely to remain so, possibly due to his protests, but contributing to his lack of work must be his playing record. But I digress as the latter point is not the issue I see.
No, what gets me is the position those who do not take a knee get left in. It's a protest that is divisive amongst the team. There is no I in team. Yes, first amendment right to free speech and all that, but wait, this is a professional sport run for profit and NFL rules require players to stand during the anthem. Can these players get away with it? This is the slippery slope argument.
Is this politicising sport? Yes it is, but you could argue simply playing the anthem is political. Why not do away with the anthem altogether and just play a rousing team song? Lame I know, but does the anthem have to be played at every game?
If we accept that doing away with playing of the anthem is not workable, and accept that rules are rules, then the only conclusion must be all players must stand. If they don't, they could have their pay docked and employment terminated for repeated incidents.
When I started thinking about this, you know, I thought I'd come to the conclusion that actions such as taking a knee are fine. But there was no way I could see to justify such protest as it is not in an appropriate forum. Why don't the players leave the stadium and conduct their protest outside? As well, consider all those who have sacrificed their lives for that same anthem and flag, what of them? Standing during the anthem acknowledges all previous sacrifice, it is not an affirmation of injustice now or in the future.
My advice, Donald Trump is right if at times inelegant. Stand during the playing of your national anthem, no matter where you are in the world.
No, what gets me is the position those who do not take a knee get left in. It's a protest that is divisive amongst the team. There is no I in team. Yes, first amendment right to free speech and all that, but wait, this is a professional sport run for profit and NFL rules require players to stand during the anthem. Can these players get away with it? This is the slippery slope argument.
Is this politicising sport? Yes it is, but you could argue simply playing the anthem is political. Why not do away with the anthem altogether and just play a rousing team song? Lame I know, but does the anthem have to be played at every game?
If we accept that doing away with playing of the anthem is not workable, and accept that rules are rules, then the only conclusion must be all players must stand. If they don't, they could have their pay docked and employment terminated for repeated incidents.
When I started thinking about this, you know, I thought I'd come to the conclusion that actions such as taking a knee are fine. But there was no way I could see to justify such protest as it is not in an appropriate forum. Why don't the players leave the stadium and conduct their protest outside? As well, consider all those who have sacrificed their lives for that same anthem and flag, what of them? Standing during the anthem acknowledges all previous sacrifice, it is not an affirmation of injustice now or in the future.
My advice, Donald Trump is right if at times inelegant. Stand during the playing of your national anthem, no matter where you are in the world.
September 26, 2017
OKC Clutching at Straws
What are the Oklahoma City Thunder thinking? They've just traded to acquire Carmelo Anthony from the New York Knickerbockers. Will this be the worst trade of the year, worse even than the Sacramento Kings giving up Demarcus Cousins. Maybe.
If we look at the Thunder, they've lost a lot of talent over the years and got back little in return. First they lost James Harden to the Houston Rockets. What a gain for the Rockets that was. Then with a depleted roster Kevin Durant does a runner to Golden State and finally picks up his title. Now the Thunder have only Russell Westbrook as a true class athlete, along with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony who are not anywhere near the Hardens and Durants of this world.
Enes Kanter must pinch himself when waking up in New York. How could such an average big man now be in the world's largest media market? He's certainly landed on his feet. And feel a little sorry for Steven Adams, stranded amongst ball hogs in Oklahoma City, where people compare their tractors and it's a long way to anywhere else. But not too sorry as he's a businessman and has never pulled on the black singlet for his country as an adult, so no doubt Adams will be checking his bank balance and not worrying too much about winning (and just so you know my thoughts on the subject, it's fine that Steven Adams is NZ's top athlete but he's not a great until he plays for his country. Until that happens he's just making up the numbers).
If we look at the Thunder, they've lost a lot of talent over the years and got back little in return. First they lost James Harden to the Houston Rockets. What a gain for the Rockets that was. Then with a depleted roster Kevin Durant does a runner to Golden State and finally picks up his title. Now the Thunder have only Russell Westbrook as a true class athlete, along with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony who are not anywhere near the Hardens and Durants of this world.
Enes Kanter must pinch himself when waking up in New York. How could such an average big man now be in the world's largest media market? He's certainly landed on his feet. And feel a little sorry for Steven Adams, stranded amongst ball hogs in Oklahoma City, where people compare their tractors and it's a long way to anywhere else. But not too sorry as he's a businessman and has never pulled on the black singlet for his country as an adult, so no doubt Adams will be checking his bank balance and not worrying too much about winning (and just so you know my thoughts on the subject, it's fine that Steven Adams is NZ's top athlete but he's not a great until he plays for his country. Until that happens he's just making up the numbers).
September 25, 2017
Lesson for NZ from German Federal Election 2017
New Zealand and Germany have the same type of electoral system - mixed member proportional. Both went to the polls over the weekend and both threw up interesting results. For New Zealand it was that the centre/left has spoken and shifted the balance of power. Only Labour grew their vote while all others withered or stood still.
In Germany, the far right has gained ground, actually winning seats this time round. Significantly, Angela Merkel will be Chancellor off a vote of less than 35% for her party. Get the idea Labour? That's right, Jacinda Ardern can be Prime Minister and there is precedent. All Labour need to do is do the deal with its left-of-centre travellers.
In Germany, the far right has gained ground, actually winning seats this time round. Significantly, Angela Merkel will be Chancellor off a vote of less than 35% for her party. Get the idea Labour? That's right, Jacinda Ardern can be Prime Minister and there is precedent. All Labour need to do is do the deal with its left-of-centre travellers.
September 24, 2017
New Zealand General Election 2017
The results are in and I was both right and wrong. The public opinion polls were largely correct and the ruling National party got the single biggest share of the vote. But this is where it gets interesting as National are left like an orphan child, they have only one natural coalition partner, the lone ACT party person.
The first rule of politics - learn how to count. On the current result the centre-left has the overall majority. That is the combined total of Labour, the Greens, and New Zealand First are the majority, not National and the one ACT party person.
Labour were successful in crushing the Maori party. They also gained ground in Wellington and Christchurch but not significant ground in Auckland. Turnout was down on three years ago and this dampened the result for Labour. Labour need a big turnout to swing a result their way.
This all sets up a few scenarios:
The first is that the 'moral authority' to form a government sits with Labour and its fellow left-of-centre travellers. They need to sit down and hammer out a deal. The structure of any deal could take a number of forms, one could be a Labour/NZ First minority government supported on confidence and supply by the Greens. The Greens could be given the Speaker role to compensate.
Alternatively NZ First or the Greens could prop up a fourth term National government. That would likely prove a very unpopular move, especially when you consider people voted for change. Either of these small parties should think very carefully before committing to helping National.
Far less likely but strategically worth mentioning is a grand coalition between National and Labour. Such a large bloc would have the effect of crushing the smaller parties by crowding the airwaves. But while making strategic sense it won't happen given the enmity between the two.
The next few days will be interesting. NZ First's leader Winston Peters is effectively kingmaker. Will he prop up a tired National or go for change and vigour? My pick is he knows National will only stab him in the back, he'll look ahead and do a deal with Labour.
[Edit to add: Turnout was actually up at 79.8% of all registered voters but the young are under-represented, only about 50% of those 18-24 who were eligible to vote bothered to vote; the young were also more likely to not even register]
The first rule of politics - learn how to count. On the current result the centre-left has the overall majority. That is the combined total of Labour, the Greens, and New Zealand First are the majority, not National and the one ACT party person.
Labour were successful in crushing the Maori party. They also gained ground in Wellington and Christchurch but not significant ground in Auckland. Turnout was down on three years ago and this dampened the result for Labour. Labour need a big turnout to swing a result their way.
This all sets up a few scenarios:
The first is that the 'moral authority' to form a government sits with Labour and its fellow left-of-centre travellers. They need to sit down and hammer out a deal. The structure of any deal could take a number of forms, one could be a Labour/NZ First minority government supported on confidence and supply by the Greens. The Greens could be given the Speaker role to compensate.
Alternatively NZ First or the Greens could prop up a fourth term National government. That would likely prove a very unpopular move, especially when you consider people voted for change. Either of these small parties should think very carefully before committing to helping National.
Far less likely but strategically worth mentioning is a grand coalition between National and Labour. Such a large bloc would have the effect of crushing the smaller parties by crowding the airwaves. But while making strategic sense it won't happen given the enmity between the two.
The next few days will be interesting. NZ First's leader Winston Peters is effectively kingmaker. Will he prop up a tired National or go for change and vigour? My pick is he knows National will only stab him in the back, he'll look ahead and do a deal with Labour.
[Edit to add: Turnout was actually up at 79.8% of all registered voters but the young are under-represented, only about 50% of those 18-24 who were eligible to vote bothered to vote; the young were also more likely to not even register]
September 22, 2017
New Zealand General Election 2017
Adding to my previous post, the overall result in the General Election may come down to whether South Auckland votes, or not. A lot is being made of the youth vote and their failure to register. But that has always been the case, nothing to see there. No, what will be decisive will be how South Auckland decide. I remember 2005 and the South Auckland vote coming in late for Labour, it got Helen Clark over the line. Up to then it was looking like the Don Brash led National party were going to be forming a government.
Since then John Key rose to lead National and he won the election in 2008. He managed to successfully straddle the middle ground. But he's no longer around and National now come across as entitled, ignorant, arrogant and Mommy-knows-best. My thinking is South Auckland will return to Labour in sufficient numbers to swing it for Labour. Labour may even get the largest share of the vote.
If I'm right, then that means the public opinion polls are very wrong.
Since then John Key rose to lead National and he won the election in 2008. He managed to successfully straddle the middle ground. But he's no longer around and National now come across as entitled, ignorant, arrogant and Mommy-knows-best. My thinking is South Auckland will return to Labour in sufficient numbers to swing it for Labour. Labour may even get the largest share of the vote.
If I'm right, then that means the public opinion polls are very wrong.
September 15, 2017
Election: Prediction
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a Labour landslide in this years general election in New Zealand. I went to vote early yesterday and the booths were busy. When people can't wait to vote and good weather leads up to the polling day it usually means Labour win. And there is a buzz, people are talking politics and this hasn't been the case for 20 or so years. National win when there is no debate and everyone is bored, the blue rinse set who are National's core support put their rents up and then sneak down to the polling booth in their Lexus or Audi and don't talk to anyone. Okay, so I'm being prejudiced, but there is truth in what I'm saying. Labour would have to stone cold drop the ball to lose from here.
September 13, 2017
Polls: National or Labour in Front?
There are conflicting poll results leading up to this years general election in New Zealand. TV1 has Labour in front while TV3 say National has extended its lead in front. They can't both be right. To find what the problem is I'd suggest looking at the sample sizes and methodology behind each poll. My guess is that TV1 is biased toward the large metropolitan areas while TV3 is biased toward the regions. Considering there are far more people living in cities, I'd pay more attention to the TV1 poll results.
Something else to think about, NZ First usually does better on election day. A myriad of reasons for this, including when asked people won't admit to supporting NZ First, or they're older people and always leave the answer-phone on and so can't be polled.
My money is still on a Labour/NZ First coalition. Labour on 40% plus NZ First's 9%, = 49% and with lost or wasted votes a majority in parliament. This MMP is a stupid system foisted on us by the Greens way back in the day, it's brilliant that same system is going to dump on them. Ha ha you bunch of naysayers.
Something else to think about, NZ First usually does better on election day. A myriad of reasons for this, including when asked people won't admit to supporting NZ First, or they're older people and always leave the answer-phone on and so can't be polled.
My money is still on a Labour/NZ First coalition. Labour on 40% plus NZ First's 9%, = 49% and with lost or wasted votes a majority in parliament. This MMP is a stupid system foisted on us by the Greens way back in the day, it's brilliant that same system is going to dump on them. Ha ha you bunch of naysayers.
September 05, 2017
Turn Sunlight into Liquid Fuel
This is good news, finally a technology that really turns things on its head. Please read the following link:
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/06/bionic-leaf-turns-sunlight-into-liquid-fuel/
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/06/bionic-leaf-turns-sunlight-into-liquid-fuel/
August 24, 2017
The Rise of Labour and the NZ General Election 2017
Never underestimate NZ Prime Minister Simon "Bill" English's ability to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. I have no idea how competent the Labour leader Jacinda Ardern is, but voters can see she's at least human. By comparison Bill English you know is just lying every time he speaks. Now I realise both are lying most of the time, but English comes across as particularly disingenuous. It looks like Labour are romping to victory. A week, as they say, is a long time in politics.
August 18, 2017
The Greens Demise
It's about time the Greens got their comeuppance. These professional naysayers and avoiders of all responsibility have plunged in recent polls. On current trends they'll be out of the Nee Zealand Parliament all together. It turns out their support base was mostly Labour voters and now Labour has a viable leader, traditional Labour support is flocking back, abandoning the Greens in so doing.
August 15, 2017
Basketball Obsession and The Crushing Son
The Kindle versions of my two novels are available right now for free. For a limited time only as they say. Please download your free copy and read on your computer using Amazon's free Kindle reader software or buy a Kindle device and really cut loose.
If you like the stories then please review the books on Amazon. Despite being widely read, actually getting reviews seems more difficult than it looks, that is real reviews, I don't pay people to review my work.
You can also buy a paperback copy. I have a good conversion rate, meaning people who read the stories in Kindle format then often buy the book. I make more money this way, the royalties on the actual physical book are better than those from the electronic version.
The two books can be downloaded for free here:
August 14, 2017
Time Travel
I may have mentioned this before but here I go again, time travel and not the type for science fiction fans.
Is it possible to travel in time? Probably not physically but I think you can see the past and future and I'll tell you how. Let's deal with looking back in time first. We all travel in time when we look at the stars at night. When we do that we see the light as it was when that light left the star. That's not what you might see nearby the same star. Even light from the sun to earth takes 8 minutes and 20 seconds to reach us. That light illuminates our world and we live in 'real time' but the light is actually old and we sunbathe while enjoying the past.
Taking this idea a step further, imagine a world farther away and light from our sun takes 2,000 years to reach them. They see our world as it was under the Romans, not in the 21st Century.
See a map of the Orion arm of the Milky Way to get an idea of where the Roman world can be viewed from: http://www.atlasoftheuniverse.com/2000lys.html
The technical problem is being able to see earth from the vantage point of 2,000 light years away right here on earth. Solve that then learn how to fine tune it, like seeing earth from a spy satellite. See how Julius Caesar really died and potentially what he actually said which almost certainly was not 'Et tu Brute', as Brutus was not even there.
To see ahead in time the answer is chemical. We need to speed ourselves up (but not to the point we disintegrate or die) to see ahead in time. Call it prediction with chemical clarity. Can drug users see into the future? I don't think so as they're probably taking the wrong pharmaceutical drugs.
How could it be safe? It'd be hard to make safe or to even get permission to experiment, but I think seeing ahead in time is a chemical problem not a physical one. How far ahead? My thinking is 12 to 24 hours ahead, not much more than that. Has this ever happened naturally? The reported experience of soldiers fighting in battle suggests so. I've read accounts where they say they see the future, and I believe this could be chemical, produced by the stress of their surroundings.
Is it possible to travel in time? Probably not physically but I think you can see the past and future and I'll tell you how. Let's deal with looking back in time first. We all travel in time when we look at the stars at night. When we do that we see the light as it was when that light left the star. That's not what you might see nearby the same star. Even light from the sun to earth takes 8 minutes and 20 seconds to reach us. That light illuminates our world and we live in 'real time' but the light is actually old and we sunbathe while enjoying the past.
Taking this idea a step further, imagine a world farther away and light from our sun takes 2,000 years to reach them. They see our world as it was under the Romans, not in the 21st Century.
See a map of the Orion arm of the Milky Way to get an idea of where the Roman world can be viewed from: http://www.atlasoftheuniverse.com/2000lys.html
The technical problem is being able to see earth from the vantage point of 2,000 light years away right here on earth. Solve that then learn how to fine tune it, like seeing earth from a spy satellite. See how Julius Caesar really died and potentially what he actually said which almost certainly was not 'Et tu Brute', as Brutus was not even there.
To see ahead in time the answer is chemical. We need to speed ourselves up (but not to the point we disintegrate or die) to see ahead in time. Call it prediction with chemical clarity. Can drug users see into the future? I don't think so as they're probably taking the wrong pharmaceutical drugs.
How could it be safe? It'd be hard to make safe or to even get permission to experiment, but I think seeing ahead in time is a chemical problem not a physical one. How far ahead? My thinking is 12 to 24 hours ahead, not much more than that. Has this ever happened naturally? The reported experience of soldiers fighting in battle suggests so. I've read accounts where they say they see the future, and I believe this could be chemical, produced by the stress of their surroundings.
August 10, 2017
War Looming in the Far East
I have already posted about the massive military build up occurring in Japan right now. You'll remember the US warship that ran into a cargo ship in Tokyo Bay. That likely happened because the US are starting to fall over one another. Also extremely busy are the Kanagawa area US Naval Air Facilities.
Now with President Trump issuing stark warnings to North Korea, I'm predicting war will result. Somewhere along the line the US made the decision and pushed the 'go' button.
Now with President Trump issuing stark warnings to North Korea, I'm predicting war will result. Somewhere along the line the US made the decision and pushed the 'go' button.
This was my post in April 2017:
I've got friends living in Yokohama, Japan and they tell me the US Navy base at Yokosuka is the busiest they've ever seen it. Also extremely busy are the Kanagawa area US Naval Air Facilities. Planes are flying in 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Locals are complaining of the noise. Bear in mind all the various crises over the decades, but they say the bases have always just been ticking along despite that. Not now, now they're really ramping up. Based on this evidence I'd say the US is preparing for war and not just talking tough. Who will that war be with? North Korea is my suggestion and anyone else who takes their side.
I've got friends living in Yokohama, Japan and they tell me the US Navy base at Yokosuka is the busiest they've ever seen it. Also extremely busy are the Kanagawa area US Naval Air Facilities. Planes are flying in 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Locals are complaining of the noise. Bear in mind all the various crises over the decades, but they say the bases have always just been ticking along despite that. Not now, now they're really ramping up. Based on this evidence I'd say the US is preparing for war and not just talking tough. Who will that war be with? North Korea is my suggestion and anyone else who takes their side.
August 03, 2017
Picks from Downunder
Three companies to look for, they're financial and construction.
The first represents good value for money at the moment. Westpac is a major Australian bank, the largest in terms of branch network. They're down right now and therefore cheap. The Australian government would never let Westpac go bust. Never ever. So this is a safe bet. They're not a bad income earning investment either.
Snapshot of Westpac: https://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:WBC
For the retired folks looking at yield. consider Kiwibank capital notes, at current prices yielding 6.9%. Kiwibank are essentially New Zealand government owned and would never be allowed to fail. Any government that did let them fail would not be the government come the next election.
The capital notes here: https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX/hybrids/KCFHA
And lastly we have Fletcher Building. They're NZ's largest construction company and experiencing some speed wobbles. Fletcher own both Laminex and Formica (you know those - right?) and the only cement factory in NZ, Golden Bay Cement at Whangarei. They're everywhere and do anything including build houses. They have a lot of political clout and so I'd consider them a safe bet too.
Fletcher Building: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NZE:FBU
The first represents good value for money at the moment. Westpac is a major Australian bank, the largest in terms of branch network. They're down right now and therefore cheap. The Australian government would never let Westpac go bust. Never ever. So this is a safe bet. They're not a bad income earning investment either.
Snapshot of Westpac: https://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:WBC
For the retired folks looking at yield. consider Kiwibank capital notes, at current prices yielding 6.9%. Kiwibank are essentially New Zealand government owned and would never be allowed to fail. Any government that did let them fail would not be the government come the next election.
The capital notes here: https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX/hybrids/KCFHA
And lastly we have Fletcher Building. They're NZ's largest construction company and experiencing some speed wobbles. Fletcher own both Laminex and Formica (you know those - right?) and the only cement factory in NZ, Golden Bay Cement at Whangarei. They're everywhere and do anything including build houses. They have a lot of political clout and so I'd consider them a safe bet too.
Fletcher Building: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NZE:FBU
August 01, 2017
Labour Party Antics
Today could see a new leader for the New Zealand Labour Party just weeks out from a General Election. While that may seem amusing I wouldn't be so quick to write them off just yet. Consider all the surprising election results we've seen the last couple of years. Then we have Greens co-leader Metiria Turei admitting to benefit fraud and actually rising in the polls. Of course the thought has occurred to me that she did no such thing and is simply politicking.
July 26, 2017
Basketball Obsession
My first novel Basketball Obsession is free today and tomorrow on Kindle.
https://www.amazon.com/Basketball-Obsession-Ken-Horlor-ebook/dp/B00VIEZ51G/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8
https://www.amazon.com/Basketball-Obsession-Ken-Horlor-ebook/dp/B00VIEZ51G/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8
July 18, 2017
Automobile Innovation
Here's an idea I've had concerning electric cars. This has probably been thought of before, but my version goes like this: the problem with electric cars is range. Fine for around town stuff, but between cities the electric cars run out of juice.
What about cars that run on roads with an electrical supply reticulated into the road itself. Steam trains used to have water towers for refuelling, then a trough came along placed beside the track, a scoop picks up the water and the train never has to stop. Well, how about zones on highways where there is a live rail and the car lowers a wand to charge the batteries as the car drives along. Solar and wind could be added as a source of power as well as the surface also generating power from the wheels rolling across the surface.
Then what about nuclear cars. I currently have a car sitting in the garage with a full fuel tank. If invented today the set-up would probably be illegal. So what about a safe steam car, the heat coming from an on-board reactor. Within the useful life of the car it would never need refuelling. Think like a watch on the wrist glowing in the dark. As safe as that watch would be the design brief.
What about cars that run on roads with an electrical supply reticulated into the road itself. Steam trains used to have water towers for refuelling, then a trough came along placed beside the track, a scoop picks up the water and the train never has to stop. Well, how about zones on highways where there is a live rail and the car lowers a wand to charge the batteries as the car drives along. Solar and wind could be added as a source of power as well as the surface also generating power from the wheels rolling across the surface.
Then what about nuclear cars. I currently have a car sitting in the garage with a full fuel tank. If invented today the set-up would probably be illegal. So what about a safe steam car, the heat coming from an on-board reactor. Within the useful life of the car it would never need refuelling. Think like a watch on the wrist glowing in the dark. As safe as that watch would be the design brief.
July 12, 2017
Garbine Muguruza
Watching Wimbledon, I admire the mental toughness of Gabine Muguruza. When down or things are not working out she has the capacity to self-correct and get back on track. She did this against both Angelique Kerber and Svetlana Kuznetsova. She is clearly playing to a game plan and it's good she keeps to that plan.
[Phew, she won Wimbledon, I'm back to predicting well after my failure in picking the Cavs to win the NBA Playoffs]
[Phew, she won Wimbledon, I'm back to predicting well after my failure in picking the Cavs to win the NBA Playoffs]
July 09, 2017
All Blacks 15 Lions 15
I've said it before and this is a timely moment to repeat myself; I predict that in the not too distant future, the All Blacks will be banned for being too good. How it happens will be through the referees blowing the whistle every time an All Blacks player touches the ball. And then a new competition will evolve which excludes the world's top Rugby team altogether.
With the drawn match between the All Blacks and Lions at Eden Park I think we can see the beginning of the trend. Near the end of this game we saw the referee consult and change his mind in making an obvious political decision in not allowing an All Blacks series victory. The referee, Frenchman Romain Poite, to put it bluntly, was 100% right to award the penalty near the end for an offside by the Lions, then 100% wrong to change his mind.
Watch this space as more of this will continue. For decades the northern hemisphere have changed the rules annually in an attempt to nullify All Blacks dominance. The result has seen the All Blacks get ever better. Now a new approach will emerge and that will be to blow the whistle and in so doing, blow the All Blacks off the park.
With the drawn match between the All Blacks and Lions at Eden Park I think we can see the beginning of the trend. Near the end of this game we saw the referee consult and change his mind in making an obvious political decision in not allowing an All Blacks series victory. The referee, Frenchman Romain Poite, to put it bluntly, was 100% right to award the penalty near the end for an offside by the Lions, then 100% wrong to change his mind.
Watch this space as more of this will continue. For decades the northern hemisphere have changed the rules annually in an attempt to nullify All Blacks dominance. The result has seen the All Blacks get ever better. Now a new approach will emerge and that will be to blow the whistle and in so doing, blow the All Blacks off the park.
July 04, 2017
Make East Cape Monaco
Here's an idea for developing East Cape in the North Island of New Zealand; turn it into another Monaco.
Monaco is a principality on the Mediterranean and alongside France. It has no natural resources to speak of and occupies about 2 square kilometres. Despite this it is one of the richest countries on earth, if not the richest. What makes it so is zero taxation. It's a magnet to those wishing to minimise the amount of tax they pay.
France tolerates this but does not allow its own citizens to participate. If you're French and living in Monaco, you still pay tax at the rate that applies in France.
This is my idea - create East Cape as some form of self governing autonomous region, with no personal or company taxation. But this does not extend to New Zealanders or Australians.
As I understand it, to be a permanent resident in Monaco requires some hoops to be jumped through. There is a minimum amount of time you need to be in residence each year and it takes upwards of 12 years to gain permanent permanent status. Up to then any resident is subject to annual or three-yearly checks.
For East Cape I'm talking about all that area from Ruatoria to Hicks Bay. Turn it into Monaco.
Monaco is a principality on the Mediterranean and alongside France. It has no natural resources to speak of and occupies about 2 square kilometres. Despite this it is one of the richest countries on earth, if not the richest. What makes it so is zero taxation. It's a magnet to those wishing to minimise the amount of tax they pay.
France tolerates this but does not allow its own citizens to participate. If you're French and living in Monaco, you still pay tax at the rate that applies in France.
This is my idea - create East Cape as some form of self governing autonomous region, with no personal or company taxation. But this does not extend to New Zealanders or Australians.
As I understand it, to be a permanent resident in Monaco requires some hoops to be jumped through. There is a minimum amount of time you need to be in residence each year and it takes upwards of 12 years to gain permanent permanent status. Up to then any resident is subject to annual or three-yearly checks.
For East Cape I'm talking about all that area from Ruatoria to Hicks Bay. Turn it into Monaco.
July 02, 2017
Greenbrier Companies Inc (NYSE: GBX)
My latest stock pick is railcar and marine manufacturer Greenbrier Companies Inc., based in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Check them out here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBX?p=GBX
I make no secret if my liking for solid industrials like these. But one thing to note is many pundits are picking them to collapse. I don't see that happening and expect them to do well.
[Update @ 20/11/2019: now solidly in the buy range for bargain hunters ]
Check them out here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBX?p=GBX
I make no secret if my liking for solid industrials like these. But one thing to note is many pundits are picking them to collapse. I don't see that happening and expect them to do well.
[Update @ 20/11/2019: now solidly in the buy range for bargain hunters ]
June 29, 2017
PACCAR Inc
My latest stock tip is PACCAR Inc., (Nasdaq PCAR) They're a truck manufacturer and a pretty good one at that. Brands under their roof include Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF.
They also own Leyland and Foden. Why they retired these brands is a matter of conjecture and a mistake in my opinion. The Leyland plant in England is still producing but the trucks coming out the door are branded DAF. This seems strange as Leyland is a well respected premium truck brand right across the former British Empire. Foden also has a respected name, particularly its tippers. Maybe the Americans don't understand the depth and breadth of the brands.
But that aside, PACCAR is cheap right now. Since I adjusted my portfolio they're up 4%. By the way, for those following my tips, back in January 2016 I tipped Joy Global which was about $10 at the time. Later that year when Komatsu America bought them out, the price was just north of $28. I did say at the time that it was a pick for the not so risk averse as it could go either way. For those of you that are risk takers, you made a lot of money.
Is PACCAR in the Joy Global camp? No way. Can you imagine a world without Kenworth? I can't and that's why they won't disappear any time soon.
They also own Leyland and Foden. Why they retired these brands is a matter of conjecture and a mistake in my opinion. The Leyland plant in England is still producing but the trucks coming out the door are branded DAF. This seems strange as Leyland is a well respected premium truck brand right across the former British Empire. Foden also has a respected name, particularly its tippers. Maybe the Americans don't understand the depth and breadth of the brands.
But that aside, PACCAR is cheap right now. Since I adjusted my portfolio they're up 4%. By the way, for those following my tips, back in January 2016 I tipped Joy Global which was about $10 at the time. Later that year when Komatsu America bought them out, the price was just north of $28. I did say at the time that it was a pick for the not so risk averse as it could go either way. For those of you that are risk takers, you made a lot of money.
Is PACCAR in the Joy Global camp? No way. Can you imagine a world without Kenworth? I can't and that's why they won't disappear any time soon.
June 28, 2017
Forgotten Companies
I found this link interesting http://contractormag.co.nz/classic-machines/hough/ It tells the story of Hough, the US manufacturer of good Wheel Loaders. Depending on which story you believe. Hough invented the fully hydraulic pivot steer loader (while others say that was the Moore Scoopmobile). On my trip to the US last year I saw many Hough loaders still in their original paint.
That got me to thinking, what about those brands that are still hanging on somewhere, anywhere.
How about Gradall These telescopic boom excavators are innovative but never found widespread support.
Smalley is the inventor of the mini excavator. Made in the UK, they were, I believe, originally grave diggers. Then they put out a dredger for clearing canals, and these were exported to India. The company still exists.
One brand that doesn't appear around anymore is the Halitrax skid steer loader. Made in New Zealand they were the inventor of the rubber track skid steer loader and subsequently copied worldwide. They were sold mostly in Auckland and the upper North Island and in the Sydney and New South Wales market. In Australia an earthmover will still advertise having ' a Drott, a Tipper and a Halitrax,' the terms being industry standard.
The Bedford J5 and J6 is no longer made but they live on in Pakistan where the trucks have gained legend status. That's because they're simple, powerful and tough. Pakistan still import used J5/J6's and fit wooden bodies to the chassis. On their rough roads wooden bodies hold up better. Many will be familiar with the decorated site of these trucks: http://s3.amazonaws.com/mbc_actionha/uploads/56997/original.jpg
Why isn't the venerable Bedford J5/J6 still being made? It seems a no-brainer for certain conditions.
That got me to thinking, what about those brands that are still hanging on somewhere, anywhere.
How about Gradall These telescopic boom excavators are innovative but never found widespread support.
Smalley is the inventor of the mini excavator. Made in the UK, they were, I believe, originally grave diggers. Then they put out a dredger for clearing canals, and these were exported to India. The company still exists.
One brand that doesn't appear around anymore is the Halitrax skid steer loader. Made in New Zealand they were the inventor of the rubber track skid steer loader and subsequently copied worldwide. They were sold mostly in Auckland and the upper North Island and in the Sydney and New South Wales market. In Australia an earthmover will still advertise having ' a Drott, a Tipper and a Halitrax,' the terms being industry standard.
The Bedford J5 and J6 is no longer made but they live on in Pakistan where the trucks have gained legend status. That's because they're simple, powerful and tough. Pakistan still import used J5/J6's and fit wooden bodies to the chassis. On their rough roads wooden bodies hold up better. Many will be familiar with the decorated site of these trucks: http://s3.amazonaws.com/mbc_actionha/uploads/56997/original.jpg
Why isn't the venerable Bedford J5/J6 still being made? It seems a no-brainer for certain conditions.
June 27, 2017
Team New Zealand Win 35th America's Cup
New Zealand have won the America's cup for the second time as challenger. It's been four long years since their massive choke in San Francisco.
Listen to Peter Montgomery's iconic call of the final race http://www.radiosport.co.nz/on-demand/audio/pj-montgomery-calling-the-americas-cup-win/
Larry Ellison of Oracle got this one wrong. It may have been a mistake taking the competition to Bermuda. But stand in Ellison's shoes for a minute and see things from his perspective. He's one man and his billions up against the combined mass of the oil rich United Arab Emirates and the world's biggest milk products exporter (New Zealand). He probably sees himself as the little guy. Okay, stop feeling sorry for him now as he pretty much stole the Cup from Alinghi after the Swiss stole the cup from New Zealand. I say stole as all the aforementioned teams survive by buying Kiwis.
A relief then as the NZ government are going to have to spend money and that'll be good for the economy. It'll be good to see the Italians back in Auckland as the challenger of record. When they were last in town they made themselves almost as popular as the home team.
Afterthought: Will someone make the NZ skipper Glenn Ashby Prime Minister. Thank you. He's the type of guy NZ needs leading. Men would even follow the man into battle.
Listen to Peter Montgomery's iconic call of the final race http://www.radiosport.co.nz/on-demand/audio/pj-montgomery-calling-the-americas-cup-win/
Larry Ellison of Oracle got this one wrong. It may have been a mistake taking the competition to Bermuda. But stand in Ellison's shoes for a minute and see things from his perspective. He's one man and his billions up against the combined mass of the oil rich United Arab Emirates and the world's biggest milk products exporter (New Zealand). He probably sees himself as the little guy. Okay, stop feeling sorry for him now as he pretty much stole the Cup from Alinghi after the Swiss stole the cup from New Zealand. I say stole as all the aforementioned teams survive by buying Kiwis.
A relief then as the NZ government are going to have to spend money and that'll be good for the economy. It'll be good to see the Italians back in Auckland as the challenger of record. When they were last in town they made themselves almost as popular as the home team.
Afterthought: Will someone make the NZ skipper Glenn Ashby Prime Minister. Thank you. He's the type of guy NZ needs leading. Men would even follow the man into battle.
June 26, 2017
That Weak New Zealand Prime Minister
The events over the last few days illustrate what I've been saying for a long time, the New Zealand Prime Minister Simon "Bill" English is weak. He can't even get his story straight over the Todd Barclay matter. Who cares about what Todd Barclay did? No-one is the answer, but it does matter that the PM lacks a spine and can't stand straight. Do we have to put up with him for another three years? Please National Party caucus, overthrow him and let's move on.
June 23, 2017
I Picked Bradken, Did Anyone Else?
Just to recap, back in 2016 I mentioned Bradken three times.
I first mentioned them at 84 cents here...http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/04/risky-asx-stcoks-worth-checking-out.html
Then I followed up in June http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/06/advantages-of-investing-in-stocks.html and November http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/11/update-advantages-of-investing-in-stocks.html
Note that in October 2016 Bradken came under takeover interest by Hitachi Construction Machinery and the full sale was completed in early 2017. Any investor acting upon my initial pick at 84 cents, would have nearly quadrupled their money. The sale price was $3.25 (Australian Dollars).
My hypothetical $135,000 invested in Bradken would be $513,000 less than a year later. Sometimes I even surprise myself with this stuff.
I first mentioned them at 84 cents here...http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/04/risky-asx-stcoks-worth-checking-out.html
Then I followed up in June http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/06/advantages-of-investing-in-stocks.html and November http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/11/update-advantages-of-investing-in-stocks.html
Note that in October 2016 Bradken came under takeover interest by Hitachi Construction Machinery and the full sale was completed in early 2017. Any investor acting upon my initial pick at 84 cents, would have nearly quadrupled their money. The sale price was $3.25 (Australian Dollars).
My hypothetical $135,000 invested in Bradken would be $513,000 less than a year later. Sometimes I even surprise myself with this stuff.
June 21, 2017
Pike River Latest
The latest video footage from inside the Pike River mine is interesting to say the least. There is at least one wooden pallet still intact which means the temperatures inside the mine weren't that hot after all. It's quite likely there are bodies down the mine. There really is no reason for the continued refusals to enter the mine.
Has there been a cover up? It certainly looks that way but I don't see what exactly is being covered up.
The very weak and ineffectual New Zealand Prime Minister Simon "Bill" English should finally do something. New information and all that. But then with English's performance this past week regarding the Todd Barclay matter, I wouldn't be holding my breath.
Has there been a cover up? It certainly looks that way but I don't see what exactly is being covered up.
The very weak and ineffectual New Zealand Prime Minister Simon "Bill" English should finally do something. New information and all that. But then with English's performance this past week regarding the Todd Barclay matter, I wouldn't be holding my breath.
June 15, 2017
New Zealanders - Investing and Buying a House
This post is directed at New Zealanders and permanent residents of New Zealand. You're bombarded daily with what amounts to rubbish about what you should do with your money. My advice, ignore them and do what you're already doing. Whatever it is it's likely to be better than the advice you're receiving, that's how bad most advice is.
But if wondering how to structure your thinking, then read on. I'm assuming you make all your decisions yourself and make all your investments directly where possible. You do this right? If not then you're likely to come up short of expectations as an entire industry in New Zealand is devoted to fleecing you and everyone else.
So let's get started. Consider the young family, two children of school age with one parent working fulltime on less than $50,000 a year. Can you get ahead and buy a house? The answer is yes and here's how:
1. Live within your income at all times. Do not borrow, never use the credit card. Do not take expensive holidays and if you do go on holiday make it the neighbouring beach town and its cheapest motel (not camping, that's expensive). Only buy real food and only eat just enough. Do not buy so much you throw stuff out. Use water to clean (warm water is the world's best solvent, proven so by Chemists), do not buy cleaning chemicals. If you garden, go to auction rooms and such and buy secondhand tools, secondhand furniture, use Trade Me to buy stuff others are throwing out (it's often quite good).
For clothing visit the thrift stores such as the Salvation Army. They often sell new clothing for $1 or $2 an item. How this works is tourists throw away items that won't fit in their suitcase, the 'Sallies' collect the clothing up and then distribute them around their stores. We're talking name brands here, but you have to be patient and visit the stores regularly. In electronics for that all-important laptop computer, look for ex-lease sales or get the latest cheap deal from Warehouse Stationery online. The latter deliver very promptly and can be much cheaper than in store. Never get carried away with electronics, do not buy Sky TV, better still buy a cheap DVD player and buy cheap DVD's in the bargain bins once a month. This is entertainment, and use Trade Me to buy a cheap TV. Another source of electronics, bicycles and stuff is the local Pawn shop. They're always looking to unload their unredeemed items.
A family which lives like this can exist and even save if they follow my advice. Own only one car and make sure it's a small Toyota or Subaru. They never break down.
Furthermore, live in a small regional town, get out of Auckland.
2. Kiwisaver, that's the compulsory retirement saving taken from your income each week, just pay the minimum. Have it paid into a conservative fund, or possibly a balanced growth fund if you're under 40. For older savers just stay conservative as you will be aware markets do melt down and you want to collect this money when you're 65.
3. Register and collect Working for Families. For a family as described above the sum you receive is about $9,000 each year. This is what you save. Remember you are living within your income - right?
Think about how you will receive this money. You have two choices, either take the money in advance weekly based on an estimate of what you will earn, or in a lump sum based on the year gone past. The second option is prudent as you know how much you'll be getting and it comes as a lump sum. With the weekly in advance approach you can end up owing the Inland Revenue money if you get it wrong.
4. Invest in Bonus Bonds. That's because Bonus Bonds do not impact your Working for Families entitlement. Just about everything else does; for instance any income from bank interest or dividends from companies reduce the amount your receive. Even sizeable gifts from family reduce Working for Families. But not Bonus Bonds. And you may win a large prize, and if you do you still receive Working for Families. Let this pool of money compound, that means have your prizes from Bonus Bonds be reinvested in more bonds, and then let prizes you win win more prizes.
5. Take a proportion of the $9,000 (suggest $5,000 Bonus Bonds, $4,000 shares) and invest in companies through the New Zealand and Australian stock exchanges. In doing this, look for companies that are solid but have been on the receiving end of bad news recently. The market disproportionately penalises bad news and then gets drunk on good news. These companies won't pay too much in dividends and thus you'll still maximise your Working for Families. Hold these investments for a long time and take any capital returns (that's where the company returns money to you over and above regular dividends) and invest that in more shares. Any company that is taken over, take the money and invest in more shares. Over time your investments grow and they can grow a lot.
The capital gain from the above activity is completely tax free in New Zealand. You bought these companies because they were cheap at the time and you bought to realise income from them over time. You did not speculate and trade in buying and selling shares.
[Example: Steel and Tube It is in trouble over mislabelling of its steel but its earnings are always satisfactory.]
Remember to own these shares directly in your own name. Do not invest in managed funds. Why? With funds you have no control over how they operate and they charge fees which soak up your potential returns.
6. Now you have the stake to buy a house. This came about because you lived within your income at all times, you did not spend unnecessarily, and you claimed what you were entitled to. Then when you did invest you did so largely tax free.
When you do buy a house, up and coming areas are always good, or run down areas of large cities that are gentrifying. For instance, Tauranga or Nelson not Wanganui or Blenheim (sorry Blenheim). In Auckland, think West Auckland; in Wellington think Newtown.
Keep doing 1 through 5 above but take any gains you make and pay off the mortgage. To this end a variable rate floating type of mortgage is best. If you do fix the mortgage rate make sure you can make capital repayments up to a certain sum without penalty. Paying off the mortgage quickly is the best thing you can do, it trumps everything else. A home with an income, such as a small flat attached to the house is also good if you can find such a property (your income rises and Working for Families reduces but you take the rent and pay off the mortgage sooner with higher repayments over a shorter time period).
As the equity in your first home increases, you're now in a position to buy a rental property. You can do this by putting both your own house and the rental acquisition together and borrowing against the combined value. Timed right you can borrow the whole price paid for the rental property you're buying.
Now you're on the path to being wealthy. Your income from employment may have risen with inflation but the wealth you've created was from wise investment and not chasing your tail.
But if wondering how to structure your thinking, then read on. I'm assuming you make all your decisions yourself and make all your investments directly where possible. You do this right? If not then you're likely to come up short of expectations as an entire industry in New Zealand is devoted to fleecing you and everyone else.
So let's get started. Consider the young family, two children of school age with one parent working fulltime on less than $50,000 a year. Can you get ahead and buy a house? The answer is yes and here's how:
1. Live within your income at all times. Do not borrow, never use the credit card. Do not take expensive holidays and if you do go on holiday make it the neighbouring beach town and its cheapest motel (not camping, that's expensive). Only buy real food and only eat just enough. Do not buy so much you throw stuff out. Use water to clean (warm water is the world's best solvent, proven so by Chemists), do not buy cleaning chemicals. If you garden, go to auction rooms and such and buy secondhand tools, secondhand furniture, use Trade Me to buy stuff others are throwing out (it's often quite good).
For clothing visit the thrift stores such as the Salvation Army. They often sell new clothing for $1 or $2 an item. How this works is tourists throw away items that won't fit in their suitcase, the 'Sallies' collect the clothing up and then distribute them around their stores. We're talking name brands here, but you have to be patient and visit the stores regularly. In electronics for that all-important laptop computer, look for ex-lease sales or get the latest cheap deal from Warehouse Stationery online. The latter deliver very promptly and can be much cheaper than in store. Never get carried away with electronics, do not buy Sky TV, better still buy a cheap DVD player and buy cheap DVD's in the bargain bins once a month. This is entertainment, and use Trade Me to buy a cheap TV. Another source of electronics, bicycles and stuff is the local Pawn shop. They're always looking to unload their unredeemed items.
A family which lives like this can exist and even save if they follow my advice. Own only one car and make sure it's a small Toyota or Subaru. They never break down.
Furthermore, live in a small regional town, get out of Auckland.
2. Kiwisaver, that's the compulsory retirement saving taken from your income each week, just pay the minimum. Have it paid into a conservative fund, or possibly a balanced growth fund if you're under 40. For older savers just stay conservative as you will be aware markets do melt down and you want to collect this money when you're 65.
3. Register and collect Working for Families. For a family as described above the sum you receive is about $9,000 each year. This is what you save. Remember you are living within your income - right?
Think about how you will receive this money. You have two choices, either take the money in advance weekly based on an estimate of what you will earn, or in a lump sum based on the year gone past. The second option is prudent as you know how much you'll be getting and it comes as a lump sum. With the weekly in advance approach you can end up owing the Inland Revenue money if you get it wrong.
4. Invest in Bonus Bonds. That's because Bonus Bonds do not impact your Working for Families entitlement. Just about everything else does; for instance any income from bank interest or dividends from companies reduce the amount your receive. Even sizeable gifts from family reduce Working for Families. But not Bonus Bonds. And you may win a large prize, and if you do you still receive Working for Families. Let this pool of money compound, that means have your prizes from Bonus Bonds be reinvested in more bonds, and then let prizes you win win more prizes.
5. Take a proportion of the $9,000 (suggest $5,000 Bonus Bonds, $4,000 shares) and invest in companies through the New Zealand and Australian stock exchanges. In doing this, look for companies that are solid but have been on the receiving end of bad news recently. The market disproportionately penalises bad news and then gets drunk on good news. These companies won't pay too much in dividends and thus you'll still maximise your Working for Families. Hold these investments for a long time and take any capital returns (that's where the company returns money to you over and above regular dividends) and invest that in more shares. Any company that is taken over, take the money and invest in more shares. Over time your investments grow and they can grow a lot.
The capital gain from the above activity is completely tax free in New Zealand. You bought these companies because they were cheap at the time and you bought to realise income from them over time. You did not speculate and trade in buying and selling shares.
[Example: Steel and Tube It is in trouble over mislabelling of its steel but its earnings are always satisfactory.]
Remember to own these shares directly in your own name. Do not invest in managed funds. Why? With funds you have no control over how they operate and they charge fees which soak up your potential returns.
6. Now you have the stake to buy a house. This came about because you lived within your income at all times, you did not spend unnecessarily, and you claimed what you were entitled to. Then when you did invest you did so largely tax free.
When you do buy a house, up and coming areas are always good, or run down areas of large cities that are gentrifying. For instance, Tauranga or Nelson not Wanganui or Blenheim (sorry Blenheim). In Auckland, think West Auckland; in Wellington think Newtown.
Keep doing 1 through 5 above but take any gains you make and pay off the mortgage. To this end a variable rate floating type of mortgage is best. If you do fix the mortgage rate make sure you can make capital repayments up to a certain sum without penalty. Paying off the mortgage quickly is the best thing you can do, it trumps everything else. A home with an income, such as a small flat attached to the house is also good if you can find such a property (your income rises and Working for Families reduces but you take the rent and pay off the mortgage sooner with higher repayments over a shorter time period).
As the equity in your first home increases, you're now in a position to buy a rental property. You can do this by putting both your own house and the rental acquisition together and borrowing against the combined value. Timed right you can borrow the whole price paid for the rental property you're buying.
Now you're on the path to being wealthy. Your income from employment may have risen with inflation but the wealth you've created was from wise investment and not chasing your tail.
June 13, 2017
Matt Barnes - NBA Champion
Yay, my favourite player has just won his first NBA championship ring. Matt Barnes, often traded, never lucky, finally he gets some luck after a long career.
June 10, 2017
UK General Election 2017
Embarrassment for the British Prime Minister Theresa May as she is returned to power on the back of a confidence and supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party.
What went wrong? Two things come to mind, the first being Britain was tired of these elections, first the General Election in 2015, then the Brexit referendum, and now this General Election. Call it voter fatigue.
But then the second factor is that Labour's Jeremy Corbyn is a nice guy. Voters know he's genuine. Meanwhile Theresa May comes across as disingenuous. Younger voters flocked to Corbyn because of this factor supported by policies that favoured their interests. Key here was their pledge to scrap university tuition fees.
It looks as if May is now something of a lame duck, the vultures will be circling.
What went wrong? Two things come to mind, the first being Britain was tired of these elections, first the General Election in 2015, then the Brexit referendum, and now this General Election. Call it voter fatigue.
But then the second factor is that Labour's Jeremy Corbyn is a nice guy. Voters know he's genuine. Meanwhile Theresa May comes across as disingenuous. Younger voters flocked to Corbyn because of this factor supported by policies that favoured their interests. Key here was their pledge to scrap university tuition fees.
It looks as if May is now something of a lame duck, the vultures will be circling.
June 09, 2017
Guns in Schools
Nanny State again in New Zealand, now guns in schools are a no go.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/93425398/education-minister-to-shut-down-guns-in-schools-after-army-gave-rifles-to-children
I really enjoyed my time using guns at school. I learnt a lot about them and that comes in handy today. Having the army turn up is even better.
If you agree I suggest you write to the Minister of Education, Nikki Kaye telling her so, no stamp required if posted within New Zealand. Tell National to pull their heads in and stop being so pathetic.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/93425398/education-minister-to-shut-down-guns-in-schools-after-army-gave-rifles-to-children
I really enjoyed my time using guns at school. I learnt a lot about them and that comes in handy today. Having the army turn up is even better.
If you agree I suggest you write to the Minister of Education, Nikki Kaye telling her so, no stamp required if posted within New Zealand. Tell National to pull their heads in and stop being so pathetic.
June 07, 2017
The Future of Farming
Farming has little or no future. This is bad news for any country that relies heavily on its farmers and I'll tell you why.
To explain this story I'll start by talking about cars. Cars have changed a lot in the last few years, but if you went back to the days of the Ford Model T and took a driver in a time machine to 2008, a hundred or so years later, that driver from 1908 would easily understand how to drive a modern car, automatic transmissions and all.
But twenty years on and by 2028, the car that drives itself will be commonplace, how technology will have changed and what would our driver from 1908 think then? Would that driver from 1908 even know how to order up such a car without first going into the showroom?
What has this got to do with farming? A lot is the answer. Farmers are not like that driver from 1908, they're stuck in the Middle Ages. Even if you brought forward a farmer from thousands of years ago they'd probably still manage to figure things out.
But wait, we are about to enter an era of rapid technological change that will wipe out agriculture. It's called manufactured food. Not primary produce processed in a factory, but food manufactured (3D printed or whatever maybe in your own home, you'll have cobalt, iron and iodine delivered in sacks) from the basic elements themselves. All we are as a species is carbon based, mostly water (two of hydrogen one oxygen), with other minerals chucked in there. We are now on the threshold of manufactured food from those elements, and the quantity will be practically limitless. That's the end of farming.
This spells doom for any country like New Zealand which nearly made it. From the late 1970's to the mid 1980's its Prime Minister Rob Muldoon knew the country had to industrialise or die, but it didn't listen and turned to relying on its farmers even more than it had in the past. The dairying industry is now its top earner. But hang on, you can make milk, and have it any colour you want without involving cows, or water from the mountains, or fields of grass. Manufactured milk can even be clear like spring water itself. This means countries like New Zealand will cease to exist or become poor overnight, or both.
Who becomes rich? Industrialised countries that own the technology that's who.
To explain this story I'll start by talking about cars. Cars have changed a lot in the last few years, but if you went back to the days of the Ford Model T and took a driver in a time machine to 2008, a hundred or so years later, that driver from 1908 would easily understand how to drive a modern car, automatic transmissions and all.
But twenty years on and by 2028, the car that drives itself will be commonplace, how technology will have changed and what would our driver from 1908 think then? Would that driver from 1908 even know how to order up such a car without first going into the showroom?
What has this got to do with farming? A lot is the answer. Farmers are not like that driver from 1908, they're stuck in the Middle Ages. Even if you brought forward a farmer from thousands of years ago they'd probably still manage to figure things out.
But wait, we are about to enter an era of rapid technological change that will wipe out agriculture. It's called manufactured food. Not primary produce processed in a factory, but food manufactured (3D printed or whatever maybe in your own home, you'll have cobalt, iron and iodine delivered in sacks) from the basic elements themselves. All we are as a species is carbon based, mostly water (two of hydrogen one oxygen), with other minerals chucked in there. We are now on the threshold of manufactured food from those elements, and the quantity will be practically limitless. That's the end of farming.
This spells doom for any country like New Zealand which nearly made it. From the late 1970's to the mid 1980's its Prime Minister Rob Muldoon knew the country had to industrialise or die, but it didn't listen and turned to relying on its farmers even more than it had in the past. The dairying industry is now its top earner. But hang on, you can make milk, and have it any colour you want without involving cows, or water from the mountains, or fields of grass. Manufactured milk can even be clear like spring water itself. This means countries like New Zealand will cease to exist or become poor overnight, or both.
Who becomes rich? Industrialised countries that own the technology that's who.
June 02, 2017
President Trump and the Paris Agreement
President Trump has it right again, his base will be happy with him pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement. Why should the US make all the sacrifices? I've got no argument with climate science but I do take issue with how the science has been adopted by those who want to see the industrialised world sidelined and then neutered.
It's like this; imagine you've worked hard to own a nice house. Someone from down the road with a much poorer house proposes that you be taxed so you can no longer afford to maintain your house, instead your taxes would go to improve the upkeep of the house owned by the person proposing you be taxed. Does this make any sense? No it doesn't, not at all, but this is the sort of thing these climate agreements demand of the developed world.
We could look it another way. How about we demand that Europe fix the climate solely at their cost? They've cut down their trees over the last few thousand years, put the trees back there Europe. The US is a new country, relatively speaking, why should they bear the burden? Imagine the howls of protest from Europe at the prospect.
It's like this; imagine you've worked hard to own a nice house. Someone from down the road with a much poorer house proposes that you be taxed so you can no longer afford to maintain your house, instead your taxes would go to improve the upkeep of the house owned by the person proposing you be taxed. Does this make any sense? No it doesn't, not at all, but this is the sort of thing these climate agreements demand of the developed world.
We could look it another way. How about we demand that Europe fix the climate solely at their cost? They've cut down their trees over the last few thousand years, put the trees back there Europe. The US is a new country, relatively speaking, why should they bear the burden? Imagine the howls of protest from Europe at the prospect.
June 01, 2017
2017 NBA Finals
I'm picking the Cavaliers to take the series 4-2. I like their talent and hunger. The Cavs coasted for part of the season, hence their poorer regular season but they're much better than that. Meanwhile the Warriors only have Kevin Durant as an extra and in the past he's proven to be Mr Absent when it matters. What do you think?
This is how I think the finals will go (famous last words I know):
Game 1 Cavs [Wrong: Warriors 113 - Cavs 91]
Game 2 Warriors [Right]
Game 3 Cavs [Uh oh, Cavs at risk of going out]
Game 4 Cavs [Only the second time I've been right]
Game 5 Warriors [And congrats to the Warriors]
Cavs 4 Warriors 2 [Got this completely wrong]
This is how I think the finals will go (famous last words I know):
Game 1 Cavs [Wrong: Warriors 113 - Cavs 91]
Game 2 Warriors [Right]
Game 3 Cavs [Uh oh, Cavs at risk of going out]
Game 4 Cavs [Only the second time I've been right]
Game 5 Warriors [And congrats to the Warriors]
Cavs 4 Warriors 2 [Got this completely wrong]
May 30, 2017
Europe and President Trump
A benefit of having President Trump in office is that the USA can now clearly see what the US means to Europe. The US is there to pay for the party, that's it. Nothing more than that. Wise up America.
May 27, 2017
Trump Tells NATO
Another one of those I never thought I'd see the day moments has occurred with President Trump telling NATO members they have to front up and pay their share. About time. The look on the assembled faces was hilarious.
It never ceases to amaze me how the US taxpayer pays to protect Europe, then Europe gets to sell their cars in the USA, which puts American auto workers out of jobs. It's true and the Europeans with only a few exceptions have developed this sense of entitlement. With any luck, no longer.
It never ceases to amaze me how the US taxpayer pays to protect Europe, then Europe gets to sell their cars in the USA, which puts American auto workers out of jobs. It's true and the Europeans with only a few exceptions have developed this sense of entitlement. With any luck, no longer.
May 26, 2017
Rocket Lab Launch Successful
New Zealand has entered the space race on a shoestring budget. The NZ-USA company has successfully launched its first Electron rocket which is rated to carry a 150 kg payload when it enters service.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/54942033/Rocket_Lab_Lift_off_Mahia_Peninsula_2017.0.jpg)
http://spacenews.com/rocket-lab-reaches-space-but-not-orbit-on-first-electron-launch/
One thing the rocket failed to do was enter orbit. I put this down to the following problem - reaching an orbit speed. What is required to enter orbit is described here:
https://what-if.xkcd.com/58/
The article says reaching orbital speed takes much more fuel than reaching orbital height. By this reckoning I'm guessing they ran out of fuel before reaching orbital speed. But it's a great start, the engine and critical pump are made in Auckland and the launch pad is located on the Mahia Peninsula south of Gisborne. The location was likely chosen because the site is surrounded by sea on almost all sides and there is very little commercial flight traffic.
http://spacenews.com/rocket-lab-reaches-space-but-not-orbit-on-first-electron-launch/
One thing the rocket failed to do was enter orbit. I put this down to the following problem - reaching an orbit speed. What is required to enter orbit is described here:
https://what-if.xkcd.com/58/
The article says reaching orbital speed takes much more fuel than reaching orbital height. By this reckoning I'm guessing they ran out of fuel before reaching orbital speed. But it's a great start, the engine and critical pump are made in Auckland and the launch pad is located on the Mahia Peninsula south of Gisborne. The location was likely chosen because the site is surrounded by sea on almost all sides and there is very little commercial flight traffic.
May 25, 2017
Investing in a Container
Sensible or a scam? I've received an email from someone wanting to know, does it make sense to invest in a shipping container, managed offshore by some company with a dubious reputation.
The short answer is, it makes no sense at all. But not for the reason you may be thinking, that it's all a scam and whoever is selling you the idea is going to run off with your money (but they might, you have to be careful). Container transportation has been around for a while and these containers do have numbers and they can be insured. Large companies do own fleets of them and they do manage containers as well. If you buy one or many, this container will disappear into the fleet and become just another number, being hired out to house cargo travelling the world.
But what happens to that container when no longer needed or the management company goes bust? At worst you'll lose the container all together, but the best that may happen is you'll have to pay for it to be delivered to you and then what will you do with it? It gets worse if you own several.
There are many angles, claiming depreciation on the container, whether the container is leased long term to a shipping company, what condition it is maintained in, how it is handled and what kind of container exactly; high cube, flat rack, 20 foot, 40 foot, open sided, open topped, all these have a demand and risk factor attached and differing returns.
Why do this to yourself when you can simply invest in a container company? For the purpose of illustration, consider Royal Wolf who are listed on the Australian Securities Exchange:
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=8109809
Currently they sit on a dividend yield of 3.70%, with a market capitalisation of AUS$135 million. They're active selling and hiring out containers and with a P/E of 18.33 are not expensive by any means. I'd suggest that investing in this company would be safer and provide returns that are better than directly owning the container itself. Think capital gains. But heh, I'm not pumping this stock, just pointing out there are safer ways to go that would be more financially rewarding.
The short answer is, it makes no sense at all. But not for the reason you may be thinking, that it's all a scam and whoever is selling you the idea is going to run off with your money (but they might, you have to be careful). Container transportation has been around for a while and these containers do have numbers and they can be insured. Large companies do own fleets of them and they do manage containers as well. If you buy one or many, this container will disappear into the fleet and become just another number, being hired out to house cargo travelling the world.
But what happens to that container when no longer needed or the management company goes bust? At worst you'll lose the container all together, but the best that may happen is you'll have to pay for it to be delivered to you and then what will you do with it? It gets worse if you own several.
There are many angles, claiming depreciation on the container, whether the container is leased long term to a shipping company, what condition it is maintained in, how it is handled and what kind of container exactly; high cube, flat rack, 20 foot, 40 foot, open sided, open topped, all these have a demand and risk factor attached and differing returns.
Why do this to yourself when you can simply invest in a container company? For the purpose of illustration, consider Royal Wolf who are listed on the Australian Securities Exchange:
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=8109809
Currently they sit on a dividend yield of 3.70%, with a market capitalisation of AUS$135 million. They're active selling and hiring out containers and with a P/E of 18.33 are not expensive by any means. I'd suggest that investing in this company would be safer and provide returns that are better than directly owning the container itself. Think capital gains. But heh, I'm not pumping this stock, just pointing out there are safer ways to go that would be more financially rewarding.
May 24, 2017
Rocket Lab Launch
New Zealand is about to enter the space age with the launch of Rocket Lab's vehicle into orbit:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92884290/rocket-lab-test-launch-postponed-a-second-time
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92884290/rocket-lab-test-launch-postponed-a-second-time
May 18, 2017
Ethical Fund or Not?
What is an ethical fund and does anyone really care? An ethical fund is a pool of money taken from many individual investors, the fund then invests in so-called ethical companies. According to this model, tobacco is out but alcohol may be okay because it can be consumed safely if done so within limits.
Then weapons manufacturers are off limits too, because they make products that can kill. Also off-limits is the gaming industry. It's a vice don't you know.
But hang on, does such a fund do any good? What about all those liquor and off-licence vendors being robbed and killed, shouldn't alcohol be on the banned list? For some funds it is, but not others. Strange I'd say, alcohol should be off the list if the fund manager is being consistent.
Tobacco has become the evil of the modern age. But if we ban tobacco and its cultivation, what happens to African countries relying on income from that one crop? Malawi is an example.
And weapons, does anyone really think for one second that because you don't invest in companies that manufacture weapons, that your neighbour who hates you, wants to kill you or take your property won't use those same weapons you eschewed against you? You're not paranoid if the gun is pointing at your head.
Gaming, it's a vice, but what about people who eat meat? They kill animals and consume them, is that any more excusable considering that to live healthy and fruitful lives (see what I did there?) we don't need any meat? And what about pest eradication businesses, don't all living things have a right to live peacefully (channelling Over The Hedge and weapons of mass destruction illegal in every state except Texas).
The point I'm making is that any business model that invents a moral compass based on poor logic, will ultimately fail. It must. I say, invest in good, legal businesses, that are boring, old-fashioned, dominant in their market, deliver quality not too expensively; and if they make nuclear weapons then it's all good, nuclear deterrent works fine by me. Get off your high horse.
According to the Ken Horlor Law of Investment Choices (patent pending), if everyone was right then they'd all be rich but they aren't so they must mostly be wrong most of the time. And given they're nearly always wrong, not doing what they do must be a good idea. So according to this logic, tobacco, hard liquor, nuclear weapons, handguns, casinos and brothels must be the way to go. I'm just pointing out you won't find many bankrupt casino owning nuclear weapons manufacturers. But you'll find a lot of investors tapped out by the latest whizz-bang fund management scheme.
Then weapons manufacturers are off limits too, because they make products that can kill. Also off-limits is the gaming industry. It's a vice don't you know.
But hang on, does such a fund do any good? What about all those liquor and off-licence vendors being robbed and killed, shouldn't alcohol be on the banned list? For some funds it is, but not others. Strange I'd say, alcohol should be off the list if the fund manager is being consistent.
Tobacco has become the evil of the modern age. But if we ban tobacco and its cultivation, what happens to African countries relying on income from that one crop? Malawi is an example.
And weapons, does anyone really think for one second that because you don't invest in companies that manufacture weapons, that your neighbour who hates you, wants to kill you or take your property won't use those same weapons you eschewed against you? You're not paranoid if the gun is pointing at your head.
Gaming, it's a vice, but what about people who eat meat? They kill animals and consume them, is that any more excusable considering that to live healthy and fruitful lives (see what I did there?) we don't need any meat? And what about pest eradication businesses, don't all living things have a right to live peacefully (channelling Over The Hedge and weapons of mass destruction illegal in every state except Texas).
The point I'm making is that any business model that invents a moral compass based on poor logic, will ultimately fail. It must. I say, invest in good, legal businesses, that are boring, old-fashioned, dominant in their market, deliver quality not too expensively; and if they make nuclear weapons then it's all good, nuclear deterrent works fine by me. Get off your high horse.
According to the Ken Horlor Law of Investment Choices (patent pending), if everyone was right then they'd all be rich but they aren't so they must mostly be wrong most of the time. And given they're nearly always wrong, not doing what they do must be a good idea. So according to this logic, tobacco, hard liquor, nuclear weapons, handguns, casinos and brothels must be the way to go. I'm just pointing out you won't find many bankrupt casino owning nuclear weapons manufacturers. But you'll find a lot of investors tapped out by the latest whizz-bang fund management scheme.
May 15, 2017
Predictions
Here are my three main predictions for what will happen technologically within the next 40 or so years. Of course country borders will change, most likely in Africa, but also Europe and North America. If there is a new Dark Age then all bets are off, the Dark Ages were very real and we must guard our knowledge well, Knowledge can be destroyed and often is. Okay, so here goes:
1. We'll be able to fly anywhere very quickly. That is rapid passenger transport. How this will be done is by planes flying very high, out into space before descending to their destination. I've seen the International Space Station racing across the sky and it's an incredible sight, this speed of travel will become commonplace.
2. Communications and entertainment will advance so we can actually experience the movie or have our relatives in the room visiting without them actually being there for real. This could be an experience delivered chemically if not using telecommunications or some such (chemical rather than electronic engineering).
3. Freight will be transported rapidly using ground effects shipping. These will be very large ships that hover rather than sit in the water. Being fast, they'll displace air freight and most container cargo vessels.
What do you think?
In sport, the All Blacks will become so dominant they'll be banned and continue on as a Rugby version of the Harlem Globetrotters (just joking).
1. We'll be able to fly anywhere very quickly. That is rapid passenger transport. How this will be done is by planes flying very high, out into space before descending to their destination. I've seen the International Space Station racing across the sky and it's an incredible sight, this speed of travel will become commonplace.
2. Communications and entertainment will advance so we can actually experience the movie or have our relatives in the room visiting without them actually being there for real. This could be an experience delivered chemically if not using telecommunications or some such (chemical rather than electronic engineering).
3. Freight will be transported rapidly using ground effects shipping. These will be very large ships that hover rather than sit in the water. Being fast, they'll displace air freight and most container cargo vessels.
What do you think?
In sport, the All Blacks will become so dominant they'll be banned and continue on as a Rugby version of the Harlem Globetrotters (just joking).
May 10, 2017
New Zealand Prime Minister Simon English
Here is a photo of the weak and ineffective New Zealand Prime Minister Simon English, looking silly as always:
Maybe he should work on the housing crisis instead of living in cloud cuckoo land.
Maybe he should work on the housing crisis instead of living in cloud cuckoo land.
May 08, 2017
Fix or Float?
It's been mentioned again, should New Zealand's exchange rate be fixed or float as it does now? Comparison has been made with Singapore. There is no doubt that Singapore has done an excellent job, Lee Kuan Yew is one of the great men of the modern age. But whether New Zealand should copy Singapore is open to debate. The NZ Treasury discuss this here: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2011/11-01/10.htm
Those with a long memory will remember NZ had the crawling peg model, which sounds similar to Singapore's basket of currencies.
But what about fixing? For me the advantage of fixing the exchange rate is it provides certainty. Businesses can plan effectively. The problem NZ has, and this has been the case since it floated its currency, is the exchange rate is volatile and the Kiwi dollar is often grossly overvalued. A consistently overvalued currency hurts exporters and leads to cheap imports which hurt local manufacturers producing for the domestic market. Fixing the exchange rate and linking its value to infrastructure spend, or possibly a balance of gold and silver prices, infrastructure and the five major currencies (US, Euro, Yen, Sterling and Swiss Franc) provides certainty, industry can forecast.
Doing a rough back of the envelope calculation; the NZ Dollar should be worth about US$0.62, but today it's quoted at US$0.69; more than 10% overvalued in other words. That's my point, this pattern of overvaluing seriously undermines economic potential, stifling local production and exporters.
Doing a rough back of the envelope calculation; the NZ Dollar should be worth about US$0.62, but today it's quoted at US$0.69; more than 10% overvalued in other words. That's my point, this pattern of overvaluing seriously undermines economic potential, stifling local production and exporters.
May 04, 2017
Australia Kicks New Zealand Again
It's time to say goodbye to Australia. The latest outrage is they've stopped Kiwis at Australian universities from receiving domestic fees, the same fees Australians face.
Many don't know that New Zealanders in Australia generally earn much more than Australians. They're the go-getters, while Australians are shiftless. Think about this; Kiwis in Australia pay more tax, a lot more, but receive few if any services in return.
My answer is it's about time NZ pointed out to Australia that they're surrounded, their only ally is NZ. Why would they constantly blame Kiwis for every ill in their stagnant country?
The answer to this is very basic and may even shock. Winston Peters, leader of NZ First, has it wrong. He says that because NZ allowed a back door into Australia for decades (this is where people gained NZ citizenship solely for the purpose of getting into Australia), that Australia is paying the favour back. No, that's not it. What has happened is that Australians have got used to Kiwis beating them up all the time. In Australia, the boss is often a Kiwi. And then on the sports field, the All Blacks always beat Australia. Well not always but of the last 20 games played, NZ has won 15, Australia 4 with 2 drawn encounters. It must suck to live in a country where draws are your closest rival. And it is likely no coincidence that in the same year as the rug was pulled on these fees, that it is also a year when no Australia team has beaten a NZ rugby franchise is Super Rugby. If any Australian team does win a game against a NZ team the Australians will likely hold a street parade, that's how bad they are.
The NZ Prime Minister, the weak and ineffective Simon English, of course he will kowtow. He's such a horrible little man.
Many don't know that New Zealanders in Australia generally earn much more than Australians. They're the go-getters, while Australians are shiftless. Think about this; Kiwis in Australia pay more tax, a lot more, but receive few if any services in return.
My answer is it's about time NZ pointed out to Australia that they're surrounded, their only ally is NZ. Why would they constantly blame Kiwis for every ill in their stagnant country?
The answer to this is very basic and may even shock. Winston Peters, leader of NZ First, has it wrong. He says that because NZ allowed a back door into Australia for decades (this is where people gained NZ citizenship solely for the purpose of getting into Australia), that Australia is paying the favour back. No, that's not it. What has happened is that Australians have got used to Kiwis beating them up all the time. In Australia, the boss is often a Kiwi. And then on the sports field, the All Blacks always beat Australia. Well not always but of the last 20 games played, NZ has won 15, Australia 4 with 2 drawn encounters. It must suck to live in a country where draws are your closest rival. And it is likely no coincidence that in the same year as the rug was pulled on these fees, that it is also a year when no Australia team has beaten a NZ rugby franchise is Super Rugby. If any Australian team does win a game against a NZ team the Australians will likely hold a street parade, that's how bad they are.
The NZ Prime Minister, the weak and ineffective Simon English, of course he will kowtow. He's such a horrible little man.