Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts

November 28, 2022

Funeral Business Looks Promising

 Hot Tip - Occupation - Become involved in the funeral business

One short course in embalming at the Wellington Polytech and you're ready. People are dying left, right and centre. What a time to be earning some real dosh.

Back when I was 15 I thought about becoming an undertaker. It was that or be a vicar. I did neither and that was my mistake. Had I become a vicar, I'd have only worked on Sundays and apart from that I'd have to go around getting little old ladies to leave the church money in their will.

I visited a funeral director at age 16, just checking things out, and looked at their range of coffins. An excellent selection and quite comfortable looking. I came home with the plan to buy my own coffin and store it in the basement. Alternatively it could become my bed, that's how good it was. Think about it, if I died in my sleep, they'd only have to close the lid and these things weren't ever going to go down in price.

My father thought this was an excellent plan. But, when I put it to my mother she fair hit the ceiling. I still have not figured out her objection to her brightest child having his very own coffin. Upon reflection, it is possible my father promoted this idea as a way to rile my mother. Hmmm.

Anyway, now with excess deaths running at 20%+ and getting worse, the funeral business looks to be the hot ticket.

Hi de hi.

October 19, 2022

Confirmed: Kanye West is a Genius

Kanye West has bought Parler. All that 'White Lives Matter' and complaining of Jews was his establishing the foundation for this move. Brilliant.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/oct/17/kanye-west-to-buy-right-wing-social-network-parler

George Farmer, the chief executive of Parler’s parent company, Parlement Technologies, said: “This deal will change the world, and change the way the world thinks about free speech. Ye is making a groundbreaking move into the free speech media space and will never have to fear being removed from social media again.”

October 14, 2020

Baker Tilly Staples Rodway Election Poll

Baker Tilly Staples Rodway (chartered accountants) election poll, key findings:

Top concerns:

Infrastructure top priority (45% of those polled had this 1st or 2nd)
Technology/Innovation
Healthcare/Medical research
Skills/Apprenticeships

What used to be important in these polls? Housing, now no longer dominant. 

Nearly 40% think things getting worse
Only 8.5% think election will have positive impact
56% of businesses have seen revenues decline

This is catastrophic.

What about Tax?

53% in favour of tax cuts
44% in favour of Labour's adjusting top tax rate
72% oppose Greens wealth tax
75% don't want extra sick days and holidays

Message: don't tax assets, income - may be prepared to pay a bit more.

Take this on board you politicians.

May 30, 2020

Kylie Jenner Rich But No Billionaire

Oh dear, busted. Turns out Kylie Jenner is not worth as much as she and her family have claimed. Kylie Cosmetics does not have the sales touted for so many years. Read Forbes on the subject:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2020/05/29/inside-kylie-jennerss-web-of-lies-and-why-shes-no-longer-a-billionaire/#2808dd6825f7

January 03, 2020

Women in Concrete

I'm talking women in the business of concrete, not women actually in concrete, that would be injurious to their health (for those who don't know; concrete mix burns and can kill you if you get too much of it on your skin). There are many good women in concrete, one I recently read about owns Tec-Crete Transit-Mix Corp of Queens, New York, NY.


Founded in 1998, owner Ms Linda Gisonda won a Women Business Enterprise (WBE) award in 2013. Yay. 

Tec-Crete have a total of 4 dry batch plants across two locations. As their name suggests, this will be an operation where the ingredients for the concrete are discharged into the truck, water is then added to the agitator on the back of the truck and the mix is completed while the truck drives to the site (alternatively, a dry batch may make its way to the job site with water and the mix completed at the destination). What dry batching allows for is longer delivery distances, however that generally comes at the expense of payload, as a heavier truck is required to do the mixing.

Another way of doing things, very popular this, is to completely mix at the plant, the mix is then discharged into the agitator on the back of the truck. This type of plant is called central mix. The advantage of this is fast batching, and the mix can be discharged into anything, even a dump truck. Another advantage is smaller trucks fitted with lighter agitators can be used to deliver the same or greater payload, however they can only do so over a much shorter distance compared to transit mix. 

So there we have the age-old quandary, tyranny of distance vs capital cost vs operating costs. Which is better? My father always preferred central mix and spoke of its advantages often. Transit mix certainly comes into its own if distance is a factor (or waiting times before discharging loads), which is often the case in Australia for instance.

Like this:

Distance or waiting times, lower cost of batching plant, heavier trucks required (less payload), higher cost of running trucks = Transit Mix.

Short distance or waiting times, higher cost of batching plant, lighter trucks (more payload), lower cost of running trucks - Central Mix.

May 24, 2019

Large Businesses For Sale Australia

Australia appears to be undergoing some changes as companies announce divestments:

  • Fulton Hogan Construction Australia is now for sale by their New Zealand parent. This takes in all of their civil engineering assets in Australia.
  • Downer Mining is said to be for sale,
  • Laing O'Rourke's Australian operations are also said to be on the market.
  • Lendlease engineering division is reported for sale,
  • BGC Contracting has been reported for sale (source: The Australian), and;
  • A while back The Australian reported Holcim Australia was up for grabs, which was denied by the company, though it should be noted that it no longer fits into the LafargeHolcim framework.

Did I miss anything? It looks to be a combination of factors in play, some companies are retreating while others are moving out of basic materials and into utilities and the like.

My pick of the above would be Downer Mining at $300mil. Then apart from the above picks, Boral at their current share price are a takeover target, as well as Macmahon Holdings.

August 22, 2018

ARM Cement

Something I learnt from Twitter; ARM Cement has gone into administration. They're Kenya's second largest cement producer, and have operations in Tanzania and Rwanda as well, on top of minority holdings in South Africa.

December 15, 2017

Sand Wars

I watched the documentary Sand Wars on al Jazeera recently, it was interesting but ultimately came up short, and that's because the documentary lacked balance and became emotive.

I know something about sand. Some may call me an expert on the subject but I wouldn't go that far, I'd call myself a specialist. That said there are several things to consider about sand and where to find it, how to process it. Sand is critical for construction, the oceans, and our coastlines. We can't have a civilisation without sand and our environment is jeopardised if we extract too much ot it. So what is the answer? That's what I'm going to deal with here:

1. Natural or Man-made?

The above documentary never once considered quarried rock being transformed into sand. They did have someone at an aggregate trade show or conference saying that all the natural deposits of sand and gravel had been taken away. That is nonsense.

There is a rule in the sand business; first find a natural deposit. This can be quite difficult as a lot of factors need to be considered when searching for a suitable extraction pit. Such things as distance to market or end-user, ease with which the resource can be extracted, the physical properties of that resource having a bearing on just how much processing is involved, water sources and so on. But increasingly regulation and the NIMBY effect come into it as well. There is a lot of natural, clean sand out there, you're just not allowed to touch it because of that last factor.

So what now then? You have to manufacture that sand at your already operationally consented rock quarry. This is not an easy exercise and involves complex machinery which can be very expensive. Even when set up the end-product can be of much lesser quality than the natural equivalent. It doesn't have to be, but man is fallible and they don't always get it right.

Is sand running out? The short answer is No.

2. Sand from the Sea or Beach.

This is generally not the answer as salt comes with the sand. Sand dredged from below the sea is not as heavy with salt as beach sand is, but this source of sand still requires further processing, or thorough washing before it can be used in construction. The documentary said that buildings in Tangiers may fall down because they're built with sand from the sea. If the sand is salt ridden then the structures would be weakened over time due to the rusting of the reinforcing steel inside the concrete. The buildings would be fine if that sand had been washed sufficiently or simply came within specification without further processing.

How much sand comes from dredging operations? Much less than you're led to believe. Ships are a pain in the arse and you can't see below the water. Even land based dredging from wet pits or lakes is thwart with difficulty. I've seen the figures on this and sand dredging is still the little bedfellow on the block in terms of the whole.

3. Recycling and Blending.

Not just glass, but concrete can be recycled also. Valuable sand and other aggregates can be re-extracted. This extends the life of existing in-ground resources. But also overlooked is blending the sand. That is, taking some man-made, some natural and maybe some recycled resource and blending them together. A pugmill or similar process can do this most effectively.

4. Concrete

There are few alternatives to this amazing stuff called Portland Cementous Concrete. Our world does not function without it and we have got to learn to manage it. People talking about straw bale houses is not the answer. Yes we can use wood and steel and such but what the Romans knew all along and the rest of the world woke up to in the nineteenth century is that Concrete is the answer. If in doubt concrete it.

If you have a sand deposit and don't know what to do with it, or need help in any way, then please contact me using the contact form on this page. I'm here to help.

May 18, 2017

Ethical Fund or Not?

What is an ethical fund and does anyone really care? An ethical fund is a pool of money taken from many individual investors, the fund then invests in so-called ethical companies. According to this model, tobacco is out but alcohol may be okay because it can be consumed safely if done so within limits.

Then weapons manufacturers are off limits too, because they make products that can kill. Also off-limits is the gaming industry. It's a vice don't you know.

But hang on, does such a fund do any good? What about all those liquor and off-licence vendors being robbed and killed, shouldn't alcohol be on the banned list? For some funds it is, but not others. Strange I'd say, alcohol should be off the list if the fund manager is being consistent.

Tobacco has become the evil of the modern age. But if we ban tobacco and its cultivation, what happens to African countries relying on income from that one crop? Malawi is an example.

And weapons, does anyone really think for one second that because you don't invest in companies that manufacture weapons,  that your neighbour who hates you, wants to kill you or take your property won't use those same weapons you eschewed against you? You're not paranoid if the gun is pointing at your head.

Gaming, it's a vice, but what about people who eat meat? They kill animals and consume them, is that any more excusable considering that to live healthy and fruitful lives (see what I did there?) we don't need any meat? And what about pest eradication businesses, don't all living things have a right to live peacefully (channelling Over The Hedge and weapons of mass destruction illegal in every state except Texas).

The point I'm making is that any business model that invents a moral compass based on poor logic, will ultimately fail. It must. I say, invest in good, legal businesses, that are boring, old-fashioned, dominant in their market, deliver quality not too expensively; and if they make nuclear weapons then it's all good, nuclear deterrent works fine by me. Get off your high horse.

According to the Ken Horlor Law of Investment Choices (patent pending), if everyone was right then they'd all be rich but they aren't so they must mostly be wrong most of the time. And given they're nearly always wrong, not doing what they do must be a good idea. So according to this logic, tobacco, hard liquor, nuclear weapons, handguns, casinos and brothels must be the way to go. I'm just pointing out you won't find many bankrupt casino owning nuclear weapons manufacturers. But you'll find a lot of investors tapped out by the latest whizz-bang fund management scheme.

April 28, 2017

Portfolio Performance

It's been a year since I posted my portfolio on this blog. As a whole the portfolio is up 54%, with Oshkosh up 107%. Two other favourites of mine, Trinity Industries and Caterpillar are also up more than 70%.  If you want more picks like these then I suggest my readers subscribe to the Stock Tip Hotline.

Check out the portfolio here http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521

Stock Tip Hotline explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/stock-tip-hotline_18.html

We are investing now as well, so if you've got a good business to sell, let me know. Even if it doesn't meet our strict requirements, we may offer the business on our blog to our very wide readership.

Investing now explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/investment.html

February 17, 2017

Cadbury Factory Closure

I've come across some staggeringly stupid business decisions in my time and Cadbury just made one of the worst kind with their announcement they'll close their Dunedin factory. The factory at Dunedin in the South Island of New Zealand can trace its roots back to the 1880's. Cadbury is a name that regularly comes first in New Zealand when measuring most trusted brand.

Read about the closure here: http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/02/dunedin-s-iconic-cadbury-factory-set-to-close.html

From this day forward, that's it for Cadbury as far as I'm concerned, I'll no longer consume anything made by them.

Why move production to Melbourne, Australia? The answer must be something silly like the management team don't like visiting Dunedin. They probably prefer Melbourne. It can't be that the factory in Dunedin is losing money, because it isn't, or that they're not up to standard, as such a claim would be patently false.

And the comments I'm hearing, that they export 70% of their output is a good thing, not a negative. Aren't businesses meant to export?

Australians don't do anything better than New Zealand. Okay, so they drink beer better and they laze around all day, that they manage to excel at. But in everything else, New Zealand is better and every Australian knows it. I can't think of a single thing that Australians make that amounts to half a tin of anything. Some bean counter wanting to close a famous factory (I chose my words carefully) is close to insanity. It is certainly incompetence.

Don't buy anything Cadbury.

Oh and check out this link from the UK illustrating just how stupid Cadbury have been of late...http://www.telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/features/the-many-ways-cadbury-is-losing-its-magic/

January 31, 2016

GFC: Why We Are Screwed

I have implied in posts on here, an opinion of where I think things are headed. However, until explaining to one of my children what I am actually on about, I realised I hadn't blogged about my views in full.

Okay, so the GFC, aka the Global Financial Crisis. This started happening straight after the dotcom bubble burst. Things were getting out of hand, banks were lending irresponsibly, blah de blah, you know the rest.

In 2008 things got very bad and the property market crashed, everything came tumbling down. Small businesses were screwed, they had their overdrafts called in, banks could no longer trust one another, the system was broken.

In stepped big mother governments the world over. They ruled that some were too big to fail and bailed those precious few out. Then they started quantitative easing to avoid further collapse. Retired folks saw their incomes plummet. The oldies and small businesses were the biggest casualties globally.

What were the alternatives? Well, a short sharp shock would have worked fine.

What happened is governments rewarded the ineffective, incompetent, stupid and weak. These governments are run by venal and malfeasant cowards who buckled and bailed out their old-school mates. What has resulted from that lame decision-making, has been eight years of bumping along the bottom.

I'll explain this another way. Imagine you break your leg and you are delivered to the hospital by an ambulance that is pedal powered. At the hospital the doctors take a look and decide to not properly knit your bones back together, instead finding it cheaper to have your leg grow back crooked and keep you on painkillers for a few years as their mates own the drug manufacturers and pharmacies.

Get the idea?

Or would it be better for the doctor to say, 'this is going to hurt,' AHHHH, fix your leg properly and have you walking again free of pain in three months?

Hmm? Well the crooked leg and painkiller example is what we got.

What does all this mean? It means we are royally screwed. Governments throughout the Western world are telling us they avoided another Great Depression (they say). How about, what they actually did was put us on a path to extinction. That's what I think.

I've had people tell me that technology cannot be lost. Oh yeah? Tell that to the people living through the Dark Ages, just after the end of the Roman empire. That's where we're headed. I won't live to see this happen, and neither will you, but I think it is inevitable. Crazed loons like ISIL are going to be running the world and they'll destroy everything. This will happen because we promoted stupid and dishonest people and gave up being vigilant and prepared to protect our hard fought freedoms.

What we have now is not capitalism. In a capitalist system you have the absolute right to go bust. No-one is too big to fail. If you promote stupid and dishonest people and entrench them in power, you end up with complete devastation.


January 09, 2016

George Soros On Current Collapse

I was waiting for the current market correction all 2015, looks like I was out by a month or so (don't worry, I don't try to predict the market, I just get on with things and have this idea in the back of my head). The current problem is just 2008 revisited, read about George Soros and what he thinks...

>>Click Here<<


Speaking at an economic forum in Sri Lanka's capital, Colombo, he told an audience that China is struggling to find a new growth model and its currency devaluation is transferring problems to the rest of the world, according to media. He added that a return to rising interest rates was proving difficult for the developing world.

The current environment reminded him of the "crisis we had in 2008," The Sunday Times in Sri Lanka reported on Thursday morning. "China has a major adjustment problem," he added, according to Bloomberg. "I would say it amounts to a crisis."

China is going to fall apart. It's a case of when not if. For the rest of the world that's a real problem as China makes so much of the shit we now consume. But the problems don't end there, government has propped up failing industries and prevented bargain hunters from picking over the spoils.

What we now have, throughout the OECD, is a form of state capitalism much like the USSR form of socialism. Yes, you heard that right. Big government decides who succeeds, some are too big to fail (General Motors) and main street small business gets screwed.

2016 is going to be the year of the stock picker. To succeed as an investor, it's going to be necessary to pick the companies that will do well, and my pick is only the most boring and old-fashioned are any good. Businesses that are relatively cheap, ignored for the most part, not considered at all 'sexy.' Anything even remotely speculative or fly-by-night will be duds.


July 06, 2015

Re-inventing Athletics - Let's Make It Interesting

Hey guys, don't you find athletics boring? I enjoyed running cross-country but attending athletic events was a pain. I remember spending a whole afternoon waiting to see Hasely Crawford run ( he won of course ) and thought even then there had to be a better way.

First off, let's get rid of most of the distances competitors run and scrap all the current field events with the exception of one. My competition looks like this;


Foot race


No starting blocks.


50 metres sprint, starting at the 60 metre mark, runners line up in two parallel lines and go head-to-head like top fuel eliminators, winner to the next round, losers to a repechage. The top two times that are also winners in each round face one another in the final ( all losers can only be second or third at best ). The race is a flying 50 metres. No false starts, just are you fast, and the event takes place across two lanes while the field events are taking place.


Middle and longer distance - scratch and handicap


If handicapped the result is first across the line wins. If an event from scratch ( all start at the start and run the same distance ) then points are awarded for race performance.


Scratch 800 metres - first across the line at 400 metres scores a point, then points at the finish.


First - 4 points, Second - 2 points, Third - 1 point, Mid-race 1 point. In a tie mid-race decides.


Like this - a runner wins the race but he was at the back at the end of the first lap = 4 points.

Then the guy who comes second was second from last mid-race = 2 points
The guy who was third won the mid-race = 2 points.

Gold - 4 points

Silver - the person third across the line with the mid-race victory.
Bronze - the guy second across the line and second from last at the end of the first lap.

This structure prevents runners from hanging around the back and sprinting at the end. It rewards those who do well and try during the race.


Scratch 1600 metres - 4 laps - mid-race points scored at lap 2 and 3. This lets the field sort itself out during the first lap; 1 point each mid-race winner, first three across the line at the finish score.


First - 5 points, Second - 3 points, Third - 2 points, Mid-race - 1 point. If a competitor won both mid-race points and came second, he'd win the race as clearly he had done the best.


Scratch 3200 metres - 8 laps - mid-race points scored at 2,3,4,5,6. First across the line at lap 8 - 10 points, Second - 5 points, Third - 3 points.


Once again it is possible for those who make an effort mid-race to achieve a high place.


Finish outside the top 5 though and points wouldn't count. For points to count, the runner must finish in the top 5.


This structure keeps the audience on the edge of their seats, with something always happening.


The event could start with middle distance handicap, then scratch races, culminating in sprint eliminator with field events at the same time as the sprints.


Field events - scrap all current field events apart from the pole vault, which would be changed to jumping through a target window, which must be penetrated without touching the sides.


Basketball shooting - points scored 1, 2, 3, 5, 6; in one minute from pre-determined points.


Soccer kick accuracy - points scored for hitting the target at pre-determined points, more points scored the harder the kick, such as bending the ball around an obstacle.


Rugby passing - hit the target, suits all forms of hand-held ball sports. Once again more points from farther away and around an obstacle.


Standing jump, good for basketball and volleyball players and lineout jumpers, hit the tag with your hand, height raised until there is a winner.


Running jump - same as for standing but allowed a run up.


In all there are 6 field events, and 4 running distances meaning 8 events both scratch and handicap.


Relays could be held, say 50 + 1600 + 20 baskets at 20 feet + 800 metres.


A field event could be added I call a bat and ball biathlon, hitting and throwing a ball like a cricket or baseball, miss and they have to run a set distance - first across the line wins.


What do you think?


Famous races from history, how would they look if my system was used? Obviously races would be run differently, so bear that in mind, but just for arguments sake;


1976 1500 metres Montreal - the result stays the same but the winner John Walker scores 6 points as he won lap 3 and the finish. But the bronze would be in play as Eamon Coughlan came fourth but won a lap, if he'd taken another one he'd displace Wellman for third based on race performance.


1980 800 metres Moscow - the bronze would go to the Brazilian Agberto Guimaraes and not the Soviet runner Kirov. Guimaraes won the mid-race and came fourth ( remember my rule you have to be top five for the points to count ). This is fairer as the Brazilian ran a good race and did better, with the Soviet runner simply cashing in at the end.

March 22, 2015

The Last Time Oil Price Collapsed

The Last Time Oil Price Collapsed

That's right, the last time we found ourselves in this position was late 2008 and the start of the Global Financial Crisis. Michael Snyder provides the following analysis, read it and weep;

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This

Now let's be careful, I'm NOT saying the oil price drop is causing anything, what I'm saying is it's indicative, a symptom of a wider malaise, a general lack of demand for anything. Why do people need more stuff ? We've got enough already.

Less demand, lower production, less employment, lower incomes; recession.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/last-time-oil-price-collapsed-ken-horlor?trk=prof-post