Backlash to Trump's NATO Slur

Oh no, what's Donald Trump gone and said now? He's claimed that non-American NATO troops in Afghanistan stayed back from the frontline. That is simply not true, and a slap in the face to America's NATO allies. For those not aware, Article 5 of the NATO agreement has only been invoked once, and that was by the US following 9/11. All of NATO answered the call.

Trump Gets Greenland

This is an interesting angle on why exactly, the US has a claim to Greenland.

F-35 Compromised?

I speculated about this earlier and now I see buyers of US military equipment in Europe are openly questioning whether the equipment's efficacy has been compromised.

The short answer is, yes, equipment linked to servers in the US can be modified, making it less effective by altering what targets that equipment detects.

WWIII Has Started?

I'm not convinced that WWIII has actually started yet, but I am prepared to concede that we may be in the final days before it kicks off.

Now the US is one of the bad guys, various alliances become possible: CANZUK - Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. EU adds Canada. China, which doesn't want a powerful Russia to its north, and definitely does not want Russia to occupy the Stans of Central Asia, may support Europe (a bit of a stretch but who would have seen the US joining Russia), Japan and South Korea join NATO without the US, and SE Asia is now at risk but Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand need to team up.

Europe's Crybaby Leaders

Check this out, in response to JD Vance's criticism, European leaders cry like a bunch of eight-year-olds. 

Matt Goodwin: Europe's Biggest Lie?

Personally, I think Europe's biggest lie is their saying they have the answer to everything. They do this through a myriad of systems all the time, whether it is through their rigged university rankings, or rules regarding business, insurance, or the media narrative which always has it that Europe knows it all.

But here, Matt Goodwin comments on US Vice President, JD Vance calling out Europe for suppressing free speech, and for acting against the interests or will of its own people.

The JD Vance Speech

File this under: suck it up cupcakes.

US Vice President, JD Vance has called out the European elites for their rank hypocrisy while speaking at the Munich Security Conference. I particularly enjoyed his mention of these elites - people I call the princes of Europe - fearing their own people. He nailed it. He also nailed it when mentioning that face of corporate Green interests, Greta Thunberg.

I believe we are witnessing a new Yalta Agreement moment. In 1945, three powers met at Yalta and divided up post-war Europe. Attendees present were Winston Churchill, FDR and Stalin. Now, in 2025 Britain is no longer invited. Europe's fate is for the US and Russia to decide. 

Dominic Cummings on Ukraine War

Dominic Cummings puts the reality of where the West is at right now, facing a stronger Russia as a result of the war, and in a closer relationship with China. I've said this all along, and here we are:

Russo-Ukraine War 2024

Recent reports are coming in that indicate Ukraine's forces are collapsing. Russia has made major breakthroughs, destroying Ukrainian strongholds in the process. If this is true, then expect large numbers of Russian troops being funneled through these weak points. 

If Zelensky, his mates and army officers suddenly make a bolt for the door, then I think Ukraine would have about a week beyond that.

How did we get to this point?

To begin with, the West lied to itself about this conflict. It believed such a war was winnable, when it could never be. Then the West continued lying about literally everything. I'll run through some of the lies:

• Russia is running out of armour
• Russia cannot get ammunition
• Russian forces are being decimated
• Sanctions are working
• Revolution is imminent within Russia
• Putin does not have a solid grip on power
• and on and on.

The reality is much more complicated. Sanctions had an effect in the first year, but thereafter Russia simply found ways to circumvent the restrictions or substitute with other goods. Russia has suffered significant numbers of casualties, but Ukraine has suffered similarly. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now 43, and women are being sent to the front. Meanwhile, Russia has not even fully mobilised.

Russian equipment appears suited to the task at hand. Their kit isn't flashy or overly techie, but it gets the job done. Meanwhile, NATO gear has proven to be twitchy, unreliable or unfit for the conditions. An example is with the German Leopard 2 main battle tank being withdrawn from frontline service.

The West is guilty of hubris and is being punished for it. 

Anyway, here's a video to keep you up to date:

The Military Situation in the Ukraine

Here's a very intelligent essay examining how we got to where we are now in the Ukraine.

https://labourheartlands.com/jacques-baud-the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-update/ 

Let’s try to examine the roots of the conflict. It starts with those who for the last eight years have been talking about “separatists” or “independentists” from Donbass. This is not true. The referendums conducted by the two self-proclaimed Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in May 2014, were not referendums of “independence” (независимость), as some unscrupulous journalists have claimed, but referendums of “self-determination” or “autonomy” (самостоятельность). The qualifier “pro-Russian” suggests that Russia was a party to the conflict, which was not the case, and the term “Russian speakers” would have been more honest. Moreover, these referendums were conducted against the advice of Vladimir Putin.

<snip>

Many Western commentators were surprised that the Russians continued to seek a negotiated solution while conducting military operations. The explanation lies in the Russian strategic outlook since the Soviet era. For the West, war begins when politics ends. However, the Russian approach follows a Clausewitzian inspiration: war is the continuity of politics and one can move fluidly from one to the other, even during combat. This allows one to create pressure on the adversary and push him to negotiate.

The Problem is Worldwide

Elon Musk has accurately outlined the problem. In a leaked internal email to staff, he said he had a 'super bad feeling' about the economy:

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/428840

Then, on Twitter he has previously stated:

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/428451

"It has been raining money on fools for too long. Some bankruptcies need to happen," ..... "Also, all the Covid stay-at-home stuff has tricked people into thinking that you don't actually need to work hard. Rude awakening inbound!"

I agree with Musk on both counts. I have frequently said the bailouts due to the GFC have entrenched incompetence. Businesses should not be too big to fail. If they fail, let the bargain hunters devour them, and out of the change grow stronger. Yes, this disrupts lives, but look at where we are at right now. Things are going to be worse.

We've been living in a huge government-led Ponzi scheme, created using the taxpayers money. This couldn't be sustained so they manufactured a pandemic, or scamdemic as I like to call it. The response was planned to crash the world economy. They, and by 'they' I'm talking about the 'powers-that-be' for want of a better term, didn't care about how many people were killed, all they cared about was saving their own scrawny necks and the corrupt companies underneath them.

The 'Great Reset' is an arse covering exercise. 

But it didn't work well enough as people didn't 'drink the tea'. Turns out the people are not that stupid. Well, except silly countries like Australia and New Zealand, they're very silly. What to do then? Need for war. So, NATO prods the bear - Russia. Now, famine looms in countries relying on Russian and Ukrainian food, while energy prices soar. Will profits from high oil prices be returned to the people for better healthcare and education? That was me kidding you, you can stop laughing as we know that will never happen.

Basically, what I'm outlining is a massive stitch-up. The only way to correct this is to remove those in power. We need new governments with new ideas. The current crop are trying to destroy you and ultimately kill you if they can. Don't let them.

Ukraine: Russia's Phase 2

I don't believe any of it. The other day, Russia said its phase 1 of the invasion of Ukraine was over and phase 2 would begin. Its focus would be on the Donbass region of the east.

I think this announcement was an obvious distraction. Here are my four phases of the Russia invasion of Ukraine; I may be wrong here, it's just how I see things panning out:

Phase 1: invade and encircle cities. Use special forces to secure critical areas, conscripts do the rest, the key being to bypass areas of most resistance. Get west of the Dnieper river and hold.

Phase 2: ramp up the use of more sophisticated air and sea launched missiles, targeting fuel and ammunition supplies. Wrap up encircled cities and when done, take those forces and push west. The goal here is to not leave pockets of resistance behind and to leave nothing mobile moving.

Phase 3: From Kyiv head south, and from Kherson head north. This closes the trap. From the east, punch through. Amphibious landing south of Odessa, push north-east. Supply Transnistria and they join in and push north.

Phase 4: Belarus may enter the war and cut off the border with Poland. Russian forces once fully securing the Dnieper river, push west to join Belarus. If Belarus has not entered the war, Russia just does this on its own.

Result: All of Ukraine is now under effective control. Transnistria is recognised and connected. All of the Donbass are merged into Russia. The rest of Ukraine is de-militarised and a puppet regime is installed. 

Edit to add @ 29/3/2022; I notice reports of Russia giving up ground around Kyiv and Kherson. This is consistent with my thinking. Russia appear to be pulling out some regiments and I expect they'll send them east. When Mariupol falls, that will also free up about 20,000 battle hardened troops. Russia in having this many fronts is splitting the Ukraine defenses. Ukraine must defend each attack or they lose quickly. Russia will now punch through from the east. If they do this right, almost all of the Ukraine army will be defeated in less than a month from hereon. With attacks on fuel and ammunition storage, Ukraine will simply run out of fuel and bullets. 

Rhetoric for War

I've noticed that as the Russo-Ukraine War goes into its fifth week, the level of rhetoric from NATO and the rest of the West has amplified. It seems the West is itching for a war with Russia. We need cool heads here, a war with Russia would not go the way people think, principally because it would bring in Belarus and the Stans on the side of Russia. This is a formidable lineup and it's not as though they have to go far to get involved.

Ukraine cannot win this war. What is winning exactly? In this context, for Ukraine winning is not losing. But if we look at the map it becomes easy to see why they cannot avoid losing. That's because they cannot get supply, or relieve pressure on besieged cities.

Here are my three main reasons explaining why Ukraine loses:

1. The relative losses matter NOT absolute losses of equipment

I swear watching the western MSM talk you'd think Ukraine was conquering all. You need something to compare things with and Russia starts with a much larger stock. It doesn't matter if Russia loses two pieces of equipment or even five pieces of equipment for every one Ukraine loses. Over time, what happens is Ukraine runs out and Russia is left standing. I noticed Zelensky is now asking for planes and tanks. That tells me a lot, Ukraine are running out.

2. Fuel and ammunition

Russia are targeting fuel and ammunition depots. Earlier in the conflict, they were taking vehicles out when they found them, but now by using drones they track military vehicles back to the refueling depots often hidden in forest or industrial buildings, and then take that target out. Ukraine must start running out of fuel. There is some evidence to support this view as it is not hard to find abandoned Ukrainian equipment.

3. Food

Crops need to be planted about now. This won't happen on such a wide scale and so food will become scarce. An army marches on its stomach. 

These three critical areas mean Ukraine cannot win. I'll give it six months and Russia will control Ukraine.

Rather than talk up war, diplomatic efforts must be made to bring the hostilities to an end. This should have been happening before the invasion began. Why did UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres not visit Putin? Why did NATO not visit Putin? This seems to be a massive failure of diplomacy.

Putin: NATO Badly Misjudged

Russia is reportedly going to invade the Ukraine any day now. 

The rumour is that when Vladimir Putin was in Beijing recently, someone tried to kill him through poisoning. Two of his security detail died, but Putin is fine.

If true, who would be so stupid as to try this? Clearly, Putin would not react well, invasion of Ukraine is left as the only option, if for no other reason than to show the rest of the world he's not to be messed with.

Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

It looks as if Russia is about to invade the Ukraine. The 2022 winter Olympics start on the 4th of February and this could be the time the invasion takes place. Previously, Putin has timed things to coincide with Olympics, he invaded the Crimea during the winter Olympics in Sochi in 2014, and during 2008 and the summer Olympics in Beijing, he took action in Georgia. 

Russians take the Olympics seriously, they're not happy about being singled out as drug cheats at athletic events, especially when you consider that all countries cheat. The symbolism is there for all to see and says; ban us from the Olympics, we go to war.

Then we have the US. Biden's administration will be looking for a distraction for their disastrous handling of the Covid scamdemic, and their rigging of the 2020 presidential election. Things have started to unravel, so what does the US do? They start threatening Russia. What a stupid thing to do.

Then Russia will be fully aware the US suffered the biggest defeat in recorded human history when they ran from Afghanistan. The Taleban, who are a bunch of farm boys running around in their Toyota Hiluxes, and equipped with AK47's and walkie talkies, took on the most powerful military ever, and won. The Americans left behind so much stuff, the Taleban instantly became one of the world's most powerful militaries.

Russia will be thinking, which NATO soldier will be prepared to die for Biden? Clearly, no-one. And the Ukraine isn't even part of NATO, and depending on your reading of history is really part of...Russia.

If the US does get involved in the Ukraine, things will end badly, NATO will be laughed at, and the floodgates will open. People the world over will see the emperor is wearing no clothes.

Joe Biden: Simpleton

The Biden administration is out of its depth, they've released a statement on the Armenian genocide. You can read it here. 

Why is this a stupid thing to do? The Ottoman Empire was behind the atrocities. They have long since been discarded into the dustbin of history. The sick man of Europe lost the First World War and ceased to exist. 

What rose in its place were several states, amongst them modern day Turkey. Implicit in this Biden statement is an attack on Turkey which took no part in the events described. Took no part because they didn't even exist. 

Armenia may rejoice now, but they're jammed between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia. They've just lost a war with Azerbaijan, and have tense relations with Turkey. This cannot end well for Armenia; Azerbaijan will likely intensify pressure to regain territory it lost at the end of the USSR, supported even more by Turkey. 

I wonder if Biden looks at the map. Turkey is a NATO member and effectively controls access to the Black Sea. It has its own tense relationship with Russia. Russia is clearly wanting to reclaim the Ukraine and to this end is amassing troops along its border and will close the Sea of Azov for naval vessels for the next six months. If things kick off, will Turkey care, or will they support Russia and close the Black Sea? Basically, if all that happens, the Ukraine is jiggered. 

When Biden was elected I warned he was a warmonger, and it turns out a very foolish one at that. I cannot see how the US can come out of this ahead. The Armenian community in California may be satisfied, but that's about it. Armenia itself could well be on its way to receiving a hiding and the Ukraine may well lose its fully independent status. All of these outcomes fuelled by such a stupid statement by Joe Biden.

New Zealand Defence Spending

Proof of what I've been saying is available by examining the following graph. NZ's defence spending has been steadily shrinking and has now plummeted to a deplorable level. The last time NZ was at 2% of GDP was in 1992.


source: tradingeconomics.com

Trump Tells NATO

Another one of those I never thought I'd see the day moments has occurred with President Trump telling NATO members they have to front up and pay their share. About time. The look on the assembled faces was hilarious.

It never ceases to amaze me how the US taxpayer pays to protect Europe, then Europe gets to sell their cars in the USA, which puts American auto workers out of jobs. It's true and the Europeans with only a few exceptions have developed this sense of entitlement. With any luck, no longer.