The following portfolio provides ample evidence of the robustness of my investment approach. Sadly, I don't think many have checked it out. Why do people chase rainbows and the latest bitcoin nonsense yet ignore solid stocks like these?
Check out the portfolio here...https://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
Companies included in this portfolio:
American Railcar
Caterpillar
Emerson Electric
Federal Signal
Oshkosh Truck
Paccar
Freightcar America
Trinity Industries and note the Arcosa spin-off distribution to stock holders https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180515006540/en/Trinity-Industries-Introduces-Spin-off-Company-Arcosa-Announces and check this analysis which sounds balanced https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180716-trinity-industries-inc-spin-entity-look-overly-promising
Showing posts with label Value Investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Value Investing. Show all posts
September 23, 2018
February 07, 2018
Crash 2018
Only a month ago I said that I was negative for 2018 and I told you why.
>> See Here <<
Now we have a crash across all stock markets. It was to be expected. Too much uncertainty exists in the global arena, and too much wealth concentrated in a few hands. Plus we have not had structurally meaningful reforms to economies. All that happened post the GFC was bail outs and doubling down. Inefficiency and incompetence was rewarded.
For the value investor, right now is a golden opportunity. Have you been a frugal investor and kept your cash in the bank? Yes? The next few weeks is the time to venture out and begin looking for bargains. Study my portfolio from the following site;
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
My suggestion is to look for companies that everyone else thinks are too boring for words. If your neighbours have never heard of them, then maybe that's a good thing and you should check them out - the company that is, not your neighbours.
[Update @ 03/04/2019 - this portfolio is still ahead 28% despite the 2020 COVID-19 Crisis. That's testament to conservative investment strategy. The real crash wasn't 2018, but 2020, but with my strategy it doesn't matter ]
>> See Here <<
Now we have a crash across all stock markets. It was to be expected. Too much uncertainty exists in the global arena, and too much wealth concentrated in a few hands. Plus we have not had structurally meaningful reforms to economies. All that happened post the GFC was bail outs and doubling down. Inefficiency and incompetence was rewarded.
For the value investor, right now is a golden opportunity. Have you been a frugal investor and kept your cash in the bank? Yes? The next few weeks is the time to venture out and begin looking for bargains. Study my portfolio from the following site;
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
My suggestion is to look for companies that everyone else thinks are too boring for words. If your neighbours have never heard of them, then maybe that's a good thing and you should check them out - the company that is, not your neighbours.
[Update @ 03/04/2019 - this portfolio is still ahead 28% despite the 2020 COVID-19 Crisis. That's testament to conservative investment strategy. The real crash wasn't 2018, but 2020, but with my strategy it doesn't matter ]
January 06, 2018
Negative Outlook 2018
Globally I've got a negative outlook for 2018 and I'll tell you why. The way I see it, we have too much uncertainty worldwide, both in terms of national security and commerce. Generally speaking, it isn't wise to worry about this or that government when investing. The rule is find good businesses that are well managed and put your money into them. I'd agree for the most part and I'm aware the Dow Jones is performing well.
But where I go negative is looking at issues with the Middle East, Pakistan, and North Korea. Then we have an at times unhinged President Trump. Then consider that financially all the world did was double down post the Global Financial Crisis, the underlying issues have never been properly addressed.
That last point is the most serious I feel. Wealth is increasingly concentrated in fewer hands within the developed nations. This has got to result in instability, particularly within the EU.
On the plus side we have Africa emerging, and living standards there are rising along with incomes. I often say that sub-Saharan Africa needs to find a Garribaldi. The region badly needs that kind of leader.
My advice therefore is to look for value, and continue to invest in companies that are boring beyond belief. Eschew all the sexy stuff, and by that I mean the latest technology whiz-bang. Tesla cars are at the top of my hit list, who would own such a stuff of nonsense. Keep it boring, keep it simple, don't believe what you are told and never listen to hype.
But where I go negative is looking at issues with the Middle East, Pakistan, and North Korea. Then we have an at times unhinged President Trump. Then consider that financially all the world did was double down post the Global Financial Crisis, the underlying issues have never been properly addressed.
That last point is the most serious I feel. Wealth is increasingly concentrated in fewer hands within the developed nations. This has got to result in instability, particularly within the EU.
On the plus side we have Africa emerging, and living standards there are rising along with incomes. I often say that sub-Saharan Africa needs to find a Garribaldi. The region badly needs that kind of leader.
My advice therefore is to look for value, and continue to invest in companies that are boring beyond belief. Eschew all the sexy stuff, and by that I mean the latest technology whiz-bang. Tesla cars are at the top of my hit list, who would own such a stuff of nonsense. Keep it boring, keep it simple, don't believe what you are told and never listen to hype.
October 14, 2017
DIY Investing
Back in June I picked PACCAR Inc., here: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/06/paccar-inc.html
Had my readers taken heed and invested, their investment would be up 16%. Check out my portfolio: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
What I say is this: take your own counsel and buy shares directly through a broker. Do not buy into funds, or funds of funds, and eschew financial advice from so-called professionals. All that happens when following investment advisers and funds is they'll take away most of the gains in fees. Do It Yourself, be conservative and look for value.
Had my readers taken heed and invested, their investment would be up 16%. Check out my portfolio: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
What I say is this: take your own counsel and buy shares directly through a broker. Do not buy into funds, or funds of funds, and eschew financial advice from so-called professionals. All that happens when following investment advisers and funds is they'll take away most of the gains in fees. Do It Yourself, be conservative and look for value.
May 18, 2017
Ethical Fund or Not?
What is an ethical fund and does anyone really care? An ethical fund is a pool of money taken from many individual investors, the fund then invests in so-called ethical companies. According to this model, tobacco is out but alcohol may be okay because it can be consumed safely if done so within limits.
Then weapons manufacturers are off limits too, because they make products that can kill. Also off-limits is the gaming industry. It's a vice don't you know.
But hang on, does such a fund do any good? What about all those liquor and off-licence vendors being robbed and killed, shouldn't alcohol be on the banned list? For some funds it is, but not others. Strange I'd say, alcohol should be off the list if the fund manager is being consistent.
Tobacco has become the evil of the modern age. But if we ban tobacco and its cultivation, what happens to African countries relying on income from that one crop? Malawi is an example.
And weapons, does anyone really think for one second that because you don't invest in companies that manufacture weapons, that your neighbour who hates you, wants to kill you or take your property won't use those same weapons you eschewed against you? You're not paranoid if the gun is pointing at your head.
Gaming, it's a vice, but what about people who eat meat? They kill animals and consume them, is that any more excusable considering that to live healthy and fruitful lives (see what I did there?) we don't need any meat? And what about pest eradication businesses, don't all living things have a right to live peacefully (channelling Over The Hedge and weapons of mass destruction illegal in every state except Texas).
The point I'm making is that any business model that invents a moral compass based on poor logic, will ultimately fail. It must. I say, invest in good, legal businesses, that are boring, old-fashioned, dominant in their market, deliver quality not too expensively; and if they make nuclear weapons then it's all good, nuclear deterrent works fine by me. Get off your high horse.
According to the Ken Horlor Law of Investment Choices (patent pending), if everyone was right then they'd all be rich but they aren't so they must mostly be wrong most of the time. And given they're nearly always wrong, not doing what they do must be a good idea. So according to this logic, tobacco, hard liquor, nuclear weapons, handguns, casinos and brothels must be the way to go. I'm just pointing out you won't find many bankrupt casino owning nuclear weapons manufacturers. But you'll find a lot of investors tapped out by the latest whizz-bang fund management scheme.
Then weapons manufacturers are off limits too, because they make products that can kill. Also off-limits is the gaming industry. It's a vice don't you know.
But hang on, does such a fund do any good? What about all those liquor and off-licence vendors being robbed and killed, shouldn't alcohol be on the banned list? For some funds it is, but not others. Strange I'd say, alcohol should be off the list if the fund manager is being consistent.
Tobacco has become the evil of the modern age. But if we ban tobacco and its cultivation, what happens to African countries relying on income from that one crop? Malawi is an example.
And weapons, does anyone really think for one second that because you don't invest in companies that manufacture weapons, that your neighbour who hates you, wants to kill you or take your property won't use those same weapons you eschewed against you? You're not paranoid if the gun is pointing at your head.
Gaming, it's a vice, but what about people who eat meat? They kill animals and consume them, is that any more excusable considering that to live healthy and fruitful lives (see what I did there?) we don't need any meat? And what about pest eradication businesses, don't all living things have a right to live peacefully (channelling Over The Hedge and weapons of mass destruction illegal in every state except Texas).
The point I'm making is that any business model that invents a moral compass based on poor logic, will ultimately fail. It must. I say, invest in good, legal businesses, that are boring, old-fashioned, dominant in their market, deliver quality not too expensively; and if they make nuclear weapons then it's all good, nuclear deterrent works fine by me. Get off your high horse.
According to the Ken Horlor Law of Investment Choices (patent pending), if everyone was right then they'd all be rich but they aren't so they must mostly be wrong most of the time. And given they're nearly always wrong, not doing what they do must be a good idea. So according to this logic, tobacco, hard liquor, nuclear weapons, handguns, casinos and brothels must be the way to go. I'm just pointing out you won't find many bankrupt casino owning nuclear weapons manufacturers. But you'll find a lot of investors tapped out by the latest whizz-bang fund management scheme.
April 28, 2017
Portfolio Performance
It's been a year since I posted my portfolio on this blog. As a whole the portfolio is up 54%, with Oshkosh up 107%. Two other favourites of mine, Trinity Industries and Caterpillar are also up more than 70%. If you want more picks like these then I suggest my readers subscribe to the Stock Tip Hotline.
Check out the portfolio here http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
Stock Tip Hotline explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/stock-tip-hotline_18.html
We are investing now as well, so if you've got a good business to sell, let me know. Even if it doesn't meet our strict requirements, we may offer the business on our blog to our very wide readership.
Investing now explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/investment.html
Check out the portfolio here http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
Stock Tip Hotline explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/stock-tip-hotline_18.html
We are investing now as well, so if you've got a good business to sell, let me know. Even if it doesn't meet our strict requirements, we may offer the business on our blog to our very wide readership.
Investing now explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/investment.html
April 20, 2017
Update Market Report UK
Just a note pointing out Breedon are on a bit of slide, now at a P/E ratio of 26.52, down from the 31 they were on when I last mentioned them. Breedon has been a standout performer in the aggregates sector, the value of their shares having almost doubled in value in the last three years. Given their performance and market domimance with room still to grow, Breedon now represent a "buy".
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=6216709
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=6216709
March 04, 2017
Snap Inc
We've seen the hype, Snap has listed on the NYSE and the company now has a market capitalization of around 28 billion dollars. It's not a profitable business, so why the backing from investors? The only answer must be that investors are taking a punt, or gambling in other words.
By market cap, Snap is now worth more than Terex (3.51), Genesee & Wyoming (4.60), Martin Marietta Materials (14.22), Navistar (2.38) and Winnebago (1.14): they all add up to 25.89 billion. Call me old fashioned but I just ran off a list of companies that actually do something. Snap lets you do silly things with photo's and you share them. Fun yes, but is this a real thing with real value?
So by my measure Snap is not something to invest in.
By market cap, Snap is now worth more than Terex (3.51), Genesee & Wyoming (4.60), Martin Marietta Materials (14.22), Navistar (2.38) and Winnebago (1.14): they all add up to 25.89 billion. Call me old fashioned but I just ran off a list of companies that actually do something. Snap lets you do silly things with photo's and you share them. Fun yes, but is this a real thing with real value?
So by my measure Snap is not something to invest in.
February 13, 2017
Columbia University and Value Investing
Do you take ongoing executive education seriously? If you are looking for a valuable course, then look no further than Columbia University and their course on Value Investing.
This course is based on the Ben Graham and Warren Buffett approach. The following is the link for you to get started... http://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/execed/program-pages/details/61/VI
I notice the next course starts on June 20, cost $7,250. What a bargain.
Don't forget to look through the rest of their executive education programme. You earn a Certificate in Business Excellence by completing 18 days of programming within 4 years. Or you can knock that back down to 13 days for a Certificate in one field, such as Finance, or Leadership, and such, by completing 13 days of programming (8 days in one field) within 4 years.
Heh, I'm not getting paid to give this plug.
This course is based on the Ben Graham and Warren Buffett approach. The following is the link for you to get started... http://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/execed/program-pages/details/61/VI
I notice the next course starts on June 20, cost $7,250. What a bargain.
Don't forget to look through the rest of their executive education programme. You earn a Certificate in Business Excellence by completing 18 days of programming within 4 years. Or you can knock that back down to 13 days for a Certificate in one field, such as Finance, or Leadership, and such, by completing 13 days of programming (8 days in one field) within 4 years.
Heh, I'm not getting paid to give this plug.