Emergency Planning for New Zealand

Forget raindrops, diesel is running low. New Zealand has 21 days onshore, in tanks, right now. Three weeks and if any of the ships inbound don't arrive, the country runs out and the economy fails.

I looked things up and found the country can survive, kind of. NZ has about 100 steam locomotives, 20 of which are in regular use and ready to go. These operate on heritage lines and do tourist excursions. They may have to go back to work. Likewise, traction engine operators may be called upon.

The central section of the North Island main trunk railway line is electrified, thanks to Rob Muldoon's Think Big scheme, and another Think Big was NZ's conversion of LPG to urea fertiliser, which supplies a third of urea required by farmers. 

So, NZ will not come to a complete standstill, and farms will still be able to operate, but farmers may need to get back on the horse. Coal is still plentiful, it may come in handy.

NZ has a lot of wood waste, and this can be converted to biodiesel. However, the problem with biodiesel is it has a higher freezing point, so cannot be used in colder areas; think central North Island and the South Island's alpine areas and Otago and Southland. 

When food arrives in cities, electric vehicles will be needed to pick goods up and move them to warehouses and shops. Some electric buses could have their seats removed and be used as vans.

Given how stretched things will be, the country will need to work 24/7. To move around within cities, people will have to ride bicycles and electric vehicles. Many buses are now electric and they will still be working. However, as diesel vehicles are needed to maintain the electrical infrastructure, there will be more frequent outages, and people will die as back-up generators in hospitals will have nothing in the tank, or only 3 hours with refueling delayed beyond that. Fire engines may be unavailable if the country runs out of diesel. There are countless ways NZ will be adversely affected by the loss of diesel, these are just a few examples.

NZ needs to start taking this seriously. I have a plan and this should have been done already: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Update: The NZ government is incompetent. To think they're the party of the farmers! And yet they've kicked farmers in the teeth. Will farmers realise they're in an abusive relationship, or will they, as always, go back to their abuser, believing this time will be different?

Update: Reuters is reporting that Russia, from the 1st of May, is going to stop the transfer of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via a pipeline that runs through their territory. This will put more pressure on existing fuel supplies as Germany looks to replace this lost supply with other sources of crude being imported by ship. NZ is at the end of the supply chain and has no leverage due to the small quantities required, thus, it is likely to be further squeezed. The NZ government appears oblivious.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Is So Important to Australia and New Zealand

A bit of simple arithmetic is needed to explain why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz could destroy the economies of Australia and New Zealand.

Both countries rely on imported refined product from Asia. New Zealand is wholly dependent while Australia is about 90% dependent. China has ceased exporting product, so cross them off the list. That leaves, for the most part; South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia as suppliers.

South Korea processes up to 3.4m bpd (million barrels per day), 2.5m of which is consumed domestically. 70% of their supply comes from the Middle East.

Singapore processes about 1.5m bpd, and they import 70% of their oil from the Middle East.

Malaysia processes about 900,000 bpb, and they import about 40% of that oil from the Middle East as they have their own oil wells. Domestically, they consume about 77% of the total and export the rest.

I trust you may begin to see the problem. With a huge amount of Middle Eastern oil coming through the Strait, but now shut off, these Asian economies will need to prioritise their own market first, and even then they'll come up short.

South Korea has begun buying oil from Canada, about 800,000 barrels per day. That's well short of the 2.4m bpd needed. They can only just supply themselves, leaving nothing to export. 

Singapore looks set to lose 1.0m bpd, and that equates to the daily consumption of Australia. Forget NZ, they'll just be left to fail.

Malaysia, just to supply its own needs, will have to import from other sources, just as South Korea is doing.

All of this adds up to a very serious predicament Downunder. I see the Philippines has declared a state of emergency, and that is a wise thing to do. Australia and New Zealand need to follow suit as this war in the Middle East could drag on for a long time, that much is obvious. 

Another link - what to do NOW https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Oil Crisis

Iran has clearly prepared for this and are setting about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. They're being successful at it, and are now attacking tankers and oil transfer facilities in the region.

For Australia and New Zealand, this is becoming an existential crisis. Already, farms in remote rural locations in Australia are finding they cannot obtain diesel. Hardware stores have sold out of jerry cans as people stock up. 

New Zealand is steadfastly blundering onward, their heads firmly in the sand. The country's leaders are woefully incompetent, it's like leaving a bunch of ten year-olds in charge. Here are some things to think about, diesel is essential to the nation, thus:

• Fuel oil is required for ships and all of NZ's fuel oil comes out of the Persian Gulf. If fuel oil runs out, there will be no Cook Strait ferries running, and no coastal shipping either. Forget imports and exports, as ships will not visit if they cannot fill up when they arrive.
• People will die as hospital back-up generators will have no fuel to run.
• Trains will not run, apart from electric commuter rail (the main trunk line in the North Island is partly electric).
• Farms will stop working.
• Mines will stop working and so no coal as a substitute.
• No trucks delivering goods to supermarkets.
• No factories processing food as parts of all operations require something diesel powered - we all start to starve in a country containing enough food to feed 50 million people. Crops will rot in the field.
• Natural disasters, how are we going to clear roads blocked by landslips?

Can you ride a horse? I can, but I guess they'll be in strong demand, so will be hard to find.

What is worse is that NZ does have oil, gas and coal, but it threw its refining capacity away - literally. EV's are not the answer either as the Gulf is the source of 90%+ of the industrial supplies of sulphur required to produce batteries - oh dear - rainbow hugs and moonbeams won't do it.

Instead of talking about it, get on with powering up some ability to produce diesel, bio-diesel, anything. 

Australian Banks Ripping Off Customers

In New Zealand, Westpac Bank has gone in the opposite direction in response to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowering its Official Cash Rate or OCR.

There have been a lot of excuses given by the bank and economists about why this move. That's because one would expect banks to lower mortgage interest rates when the Reserve Bank lowers the OCR. I think Westpac has raised interest rates to prop up Australia. New Zealanders are subsidising the Australians.

Here's my thinking: Australia has a major problem. China is slowing up and will not be buying the same volume of coal and iron ore, simply because it won't be making as much stuff and won't need the amount of steel it has previously. Australia needs this business as it lacks its own industry. Australia has always thought it a good idea to rip raw materials out of the ground, export, then take the money and buy flat screen TV's with the proceeds.

Australia is also faced with higher inflationary expectations. They've mismanaged their economy, and expect Kiwis to pay. It's as simple as that.

NZ should stay the course. Inflation does appear under control and confidence has returned. Kiwis should think carefully about whether moving to Australia is a good idea as there is a real risk of being stranded without a job. 

As a side note, Australia is currently heavily promoting itself to Kiwis. They're using positive and negative campaigns. The positive ones mention better quality of life and higher pay. The negative campaign says NZ is falling apart (it isn't), and that everyone is leaving (they aren't). This kind of advertising can have real consequences. I recently saw a young doctor originally from Christchurch, on YouTube describing her life on the Sunshine Coast now she's moved to Australia. She described how she'd gone from receiving free meals at Christchurch Public Hospital, and all learning materials being paid for, to Australia where she has to pay for meals and pay for everything else. Then, she described trying to get onto her speciality course, and not being able to. Well, no shit Sherlock, the Australians will always prefer their own, the immigrant is there to work, not to get ahead. And based on the Sunshine Coast, a swamp two hours from Brisbane. She gave up living in the most positive city with a wonderful buzz, to go to the Sunshine Coast to be eaten by mosquitoes. And despite the negatives, she remained positive about her move; all I can to that is a fool and her money are soon parted. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/581436/finance-minister-advises-mortgage-holders-to-shop-around-as-westpac-increases-rates

New Zealand Government Spending

Since 2020, New Zealand government spending as a percentage of GDP has increased markedly. Both the Labour and now National governments are drunk on spending taxpayers money. Of course, the economy is also contracting slightly, and this makes things worse. Basically, tax cuts won't address the problem, what we need right now is a reduction in government spending overall.

Now we have no Eggs

New Zealand is a train wreck of an economy and things are only getting worse. Since the shutdown of all local oil refining, cars cannot run on the crap fuel that is now imported, and the roads are breaking up because the imported bitumen is rubbish.

But now eggs are running out across the country. People are panic buying and supermarkets have introduced purchase restrictions. 

This is a classic example of the law of unintended consequences. Back under the National government, they gave 10 years for poultry farmers to get out of using cages. Cage produced eggs were out. Well, that day has arrived and instead of farmers complying, they've just stopped producing eggs. This affects everyone, households, restaurants, you name it.

The situation is made worse because problems with the global supply chain means grain is now much more expensive. NZ is no longer self-sufficient in grain, so these have to be imported and that cost is 60% of the cost of producing the egg. 

We are being led by donkeys.

US Diesel Stocks Running Low

Just putting this here for you to ponder. It is reported that the US is down to 25 days of diesel left in the system. If stocks become depleted, nothing moves, farming stops, diesel is that critical to everything. Places like New Zealand will really suffer as the US has huge buying power and they'll bid up the price, meaning NZ will be left with nothing.

From the US:

US is running out of diesel

CF Industries Announces Fertiliser Delays

Farmers in the US are facing delays or non-delivery of critical fertiliser supplies just as the planting season begins. This could lead to serious food shortages in a few months when harvesting begins and crop yields fall.

See this link from CF Industries: https://www.cfindustries.com/newsroom/2022/union-pacific-shipping-restrictions

Then, we have the restriction of exports from China due to the Shanghai lockdowns, and war in the Ukraine leading to no crops being planted at all.

For New Zealand, it gets worse too. The closure of its one oil refinery means: if the supply chain cannot deliver finished fuels, farmers cannot produce as they need diesel to run their tractors. We are sitting on the precipice and are about to fall off the cliff.

New Zealand Economic Collapse

New Zealand is very close to completely crashing its economy. The below video explains why.

 

The Political Virus - Genocide

The current crisis must have little to do with public health. How do I know that? New Zealand's South Island is currently on a strict lockdown when it has zero cases. It will remain on lockdown until next Wednesday Sept., 1st when it moves down to level 3, which in NZ is just level 4 with takeaways. 

This is a political lockdown. The world is being subjected to political control. It is not about a virus, it is about destroying lives, businesses, religion, sport - you name it. We are moving into a global police state and I never thought this could happen so fast. It has been so easy to do too, with little resistance from politicians or the people in general. 

The below video tries to encapsulate what is happening. This is a major crisis, the biggest crisis the planet has ever faced. More serious than World Wars. If we don't rise up and resist what is happening, most will die through hunger and disease. It is a genocide.

 

Closure of NZ's Last Oil Refinery

With the recent announcement that New Zealand Refining is closing down its oil refinery and moving to become a liquid fuels import terminal only, NZ is finished. NZ is an isolated country and needs to be self-sufficient in key strategic industries. A few years ago Holcim closed its cement manufacturing, leaving just Golden Bay Cement as the sole domestic producer. I wonder how long that will last? This is a dark day for the little country that was. It will soon go out of business and disappear completely. May I also add, there is no OECD country apart from New Zealand that would allow strategic industries holding such a large share of the market to simply close up shop. 

Labour Phasing Out Coal Boilers

Someone needs to sit the current New Zealand Labour government down and point out the facts surrounding having a developed economy. Such an economy needs coal fired boilers. All alternatives just don't measure up. In reality, not only are the alternatives a poor source of energy, but they're also not that environmentally friendly. Oh dear, NZ really is going to hell in a handcart.

Suez Canal Blockage Cleared

Phew, that was a close one for little New Zealand. The ship blocking the channel has finally been cleared and is moving again. People have no idea how close NZ came to economic meltdown. 

Rob Campbell on Q&A

TVNZ's Q&A had Rob Campbell on this morning; I thought, oh dear, New Zealand has to be in real trouble if Rob Campbell has emerged from his cave and is speaking out. 

Many NZers will only know Campbell from his current role as a professional director. But in a previous life he was a Labour party stalwart and union boss. He's a graduate in economics and seen a lot. That said, he's basically saying; New Zealand is jiggered. He talked of there being no plan, and that the government is not harnessing the resources of business sectors. One could say, that's because Labour are now trying to destroy business. 

He did suggest, if you listen carefully, that tourism may never recover. This effectively turns Queenstown into a ghost town. Add to that Wanaka, Franz Josef and Te Anau. 

Some may have missed his reference to the problem of relying on the one thing. I agree with this although he was far too polite. NZ is dangerously reliant on a very shallow base. Shallow in terms of breadth and depth. Today, NZ consists of cafes and bars (which are now endangered species) and farmers below them. Between the two, from producers to services, there is very little for the country to hang its hat on. NZ has very clever people but the government is so myopic, and I'd add functionally illiterate and innumerate when I say this, that the country has been whittled away to nothing. I equate NZ to a logging company that has made so many cuts it's now down to one chainsaw but thinks this clever. Clearly you've got serious trouble when that one chainsaw breaks down. Right now, NZ's chainsaw is spluttering. 

We are standing right at the edge of the cliff folks. One more step and that's it, NZ falls over the edge.

Global Supply Chain Stressed

This is what happens when you interfere with the supply chain - chaos. Back when the lockdowns started I predicted shortages and ultimately this will result in hunger, potentially riots (a few already, Chile being an example), and in some parts of the world, famine. 

What I'm talking about are actions that stop the conveyor. I have quite a bit of experience with logistics, raw material processing being my top skill. I can tell you this very easily: when the conveyor stops, you lose a lot. 

The global supply chain is one very large conveyor. It is slowly breaking down. The port of Los Angeles/Long Beach is one of the largest ports in the world. It is a vast contiguous port mass where they handle 20+ ships at any one time, and where they stack road trailers on top of one another over acres of staging areas, ready for attaching to the truck prime movers that haul loads out of the port to anywhere in the western United States. From there cargo also moves under bond into Mexico, through inland entry points as far away as El Paso in Texas. 

What's going on? The USA is experiencing shortages on shelves right now and things are not getting any better. With a lack of ships and COVID restrictions, ships are waiting to enter port for as long as it takes to transit the Pacific. Bear in mind this is trade of the largest economy in the world being affected. 

Little New Zealand is going to be hit really hard, you've only seen the start of this. NZ may find itself unable to export. Yes, unable to export. What you need to do is scream (yes, scream) to your local member of parliament about this. They're too stupid to realise the extent of the problem. The-global-supply-chain-is-breaking-down. 

Please study the link: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-video-shows-massive-scope-of-california-box-ship-traffic-jam?utm_source=wnd&utm_medium=wnd&utm_campaign=syndicated

New Zealand's Oil and Gas Exploration Ban - Silly

This post is to explain and bring to New Zealand's attention just how utterly fruit loop and dingbattery Jacinda Ardern's ban on oil and gas exploration is, and how the climate change commission must be the stupidest group of people ever assembled. Not unintelligent people, but very stupid people. 

Below you'll find a YouTube video. At first you'll think this has nothing to do with New Zild and on the surface you'd be right. But it is there to illustrate how the world doesn't stand still, it is developing all the time and NZ is being left behind. This video shows the progress in construction of Uganda's second international airport. It's being built in the western part of the country, near Lake Albert by a UK and Israeli joint venture. Oh really? Isn't that interesting. 

But first, some facts, Ken likes facts: Uganda has a population of 44 million and is about the size of NZ. It has varied geographic shape, from mountains in the west to lower areas in the east (its highest peak is much higher than Mt Cook, complete with glaciers). Drier areas to the north, warm wet climate to the south. You'll have heard of Lake Victoria, which drains across the country to Lake Albert and then out north to the white Nile. Lots of water, rainfall about 1,000-1,500mm a year in two wet periods, so it rains for 6 months of the year, and has rich soils, humidity 77% and average temperature throughout the year of 20 degrees Celsius. Ideal growing conditions. 

Yes, Hydro is being installed, nice and renewable with the fall from the mountains being exploited so the flow of rivers is used by being diverted in the upper reaches through steel pipes to the turbines, downstream the rivers just flow as normal. Really, cool, the UN is paying for it. No kidding, UN power programmes, nice eh, that UN, they're so climate friendly in supplying all that electricity. 

Now, consider this; the Americans are now developing oil and gas fields in western Uganda, near Lake Albert. The oilfields contain billions of barrels. Billions, not millions. That's why the airport, they need a large airport to bring in all the oil field equipment and spare parts, but on the export side, the country is better served to export time critical fresh fruit and vegetables to the UK. It already does the latter via Entebbe, but now that capacity will be doubled. 

With that oil and gas, they're building a refinery too, both supplying the local car market which is mostly Japanese secondhand imports, but VW has started building cars in neighbouring Rwanda. Then being built is an oil pipeline to east Africa, specifically to the Port of Tanga in Tanzania. 

Of course all this construction needs cement, so Chinese companies have built a cement plant producing 3 million tonnes a year, three times NZ's annual consumption for those who want to know, and that's just the one plant. Next door to the cement plant they've built an industrial park making everything you can imagine that this kind of industrial development needs, right down to flooring tiles. 

So, Uganda a country the size of NZ just blew away NZ's efforts to minimise carbon emissions. That's the message. And good for them. I hope they get a decent cricket team and thrash us one day (no, seriously, I really do). Personally, I'm amazed oil companies even bother with NZ. Why wouldn't these companies go where they'll be welcomed? So when you're told you can't have any LPG bottles, even when you've got a natural disaster and the power is off for months and you're starving, thank Saint Jacinda for saving you from climate calamity. Anyway, the video as mentioned, patience with their version of English folks, thank you. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ho17fBoBNDw

Snob's Guide to New Zealand Making Comeback

 My book on navigating around New Zealand society is undergoing a resurgence. When first released it was always top 100 on Amazon's Australian and Oceanian Politics category in both the physical and Kindle format. As a Kindle read it also rated highly within travel guides, a subject it does also address. But then it fell away, still selling but not enough to push it back into the limelight.

Recently readers have started borrowing the book from the Kindle Lending Library, which is new for me as in the past people bought the book. I know how much of the book gets read this way as I'm paid by the page through the Kindle Lending Library. My last two books get read completely when borrowed which I'm told is quite rare. Books are generally not read properly, readers skip pages, more than 20% of each book can be skipped through in fact. These readers later claim to have finished the book, when they haven't done that at all. So it's nice to know that my efforts are appreciated or at least hold the reader.

Why the comeback for Snob's Guide to New Zealand? I think the answer is twofold, people in the US are unhappy with the way things are headed there and maybe looking to escape. The other is controversy surrounding NZ's election and the possibility of electoral interference there as well. Readers are interested to know how the NZ system works, and exactly how its electoral system is flawed.

You can read my book by following this link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07J9XRCWK

It's an easy read, written in an accessible way, but it's not endless gush either, if you want to know exactly how NZ operates, this is your first port of call. You get the lowdown, need to know stuff.

New Zealand General Election 2020

It's decision time. I've made no secret of it; I think the Labour government are on the way out. Three years ago I called it in their favour. Jacinda Ardern and her Labour party were the only party to receive a swing to it, and it was a massive swing at that.

But things haven't gone well. By any measure Labour have failed. Everything is worse, child poverty, homelessness, house construction, and now they've completely destroyed the NZ economy.

The polls say otherwise, they have Labour about to serve a second three year term. I don't believe it, I think the polls are rigged. The media are bought and paid for. People out there have been kicked in the teeth. Surely they wouldn't go back for more.

I'm predicting a sane and sensible electorate will vote National or ACT. The two will form the next government. If this doesn't happen, it may be all over, NZ may cease to exist. Things are that serious.

End of Cheques a Disaster for Charities

In New Zealand banks are phasing out cheques. There are many reasons for why this is a bad idea. For starters, overseas payers often send a cheque, they still have advanced and meaningful economies where cheques are still used widely. Amazon is an example of a company that pays NZ by cheque. That's right, no direct paying into bank accounts by Amazon for tiny countries, just for big ones like the US, Canada and the UK.

But the biggest impact from the removal of cheques will be on charities. Many of them deal with older people who like to donate and they are less likely to trust online payment methods. Think also about older people's sight, hearing (for telephone banking) and other disabilities. Or people who live remotely. Charities are going to be faced with a very steep curve trying to get donations from these people. For many charities it will spell the end.

Read about it here: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/410820/charities-could-miss-out-on-millions-if-banks-scrap-cheques

For thousands of New Zealanders, sending a cheque to a charity they support may be the only time they connect with the organisation.

Record Transport Spend

Drowned out by the Coronavirus announcements, New Zealand has just announced a massive infrastructure spend; $54 billion over the next 10 years. This is much needed and will act as a stimulus for the economy post the Coronavirus shutdown.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/120386461/phil-tyford-is-promising-a-54-billion-transport-binge-over-the-next-ten-years-with-a-focus-on-safety