Emergency Planning for New Zealand

Forget raindrops, diesel is running low. New Zealand has 21 days onshore, in tanks, right now. Three weeks and if any of the ships inbound don't arrive, the country runs out and the economy fails.

I looked things up and found the country can survive, kind of. NZ has about 100 steam locomotives, 20 of which are in regular use and ready to go. These operate on heritage lines and do tourist excursions. They may have to go back to work. Likewise, traction engine operators may be called upon.

The central section of the North Island main trunk railway line is electrified, thanks to Rob Muldoon's Think Big scheme, and another Think Big was NZ's conversion of LPG to urea fertiliser, which supplies a third of urea required by farmers. 

So, NZ will not come to a complete standstill, and farms will still be able to operate, but farmers may need to get back on the horse. Coal is still plentiful, it may come in handy.

NZ has a lot of wood waste, and this can be converted to biodiesel. However, the problem with biodiesel is it has a higher freezing point, so cannot be used in colder areas; think central North Island and the South Island's alpine areas and Otago and Southland. 

When food arrives in cities, electric vehicles will be needed to pick goods up and move them to warehouses and shops. Some electric buses could have their seats removed and be used as vans.

Given how stretched things will be, the country will need to work 24/7. To move around within cities, people will have to ride bicycles and electric vehicles. Many buses are now electric and they will still be working. However, as diesel vehicles are needed to maintain the electrical infrastructure, there will be more frequent outages, and people will die as back-up generators in hospitals will have nothing in the tank, or only 3 hours with refueling delayed beyond that. Fire engines may be unavailable if the country runs out of diesel. There are countless ways NZ will be adversely affected by the loss of diesel, these are just a few examples.

NZ needs to start taking this seriously. I have a plan and this should have been done already: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Update: The NZ government is incompetent. To think they're the party of the farmers! And yet they've kicked farmers in the teeth. Will farmers realise they're in an abusive relationship, or will they, as always, go back to their abuser, believing this time will be different?

Update: Reuters is reporting that Russia, from the 1st of May, is going to stop the transfer of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via a pipeline that runs through their territory. This will put more pressure on existing fuel supplies as Germany looks to replace this lost supply with other sources of crude being imported by ship. NZ is at the end of the supply chain and has no leverage due to the small quantities required, thus, it is likely to be further squeezed. The NZ government appears oblivious.

Luxon Destroying National and New Zealand

New Zealand's prime minister, the man who looks like a timeshare salesman from the 1990's, shiny suit, shaved head and all, has survived a confidence vote within his caucus. It was a vote called by himself. 

The bad news is diesel is still running out, but the good news is that if National go into the election in November with Luxon at the helm, they stand to be wiped out. That's because, with diesel now double the price of six weeks ago, the party of the farmer has kicked the farmer in the teeth. 

The farmers of NZ must soon realise that Luxon and his cohort represent the ruling corporate elites from overseas. They view NZ farmers as hayseeds, there to be exploited.

People may say I'm being too drastic, that National has always been around. Certainly, they've been around a long time, since 1936 in fact. They were formed out of the rubble of the rural Reform, and urban United parties. Labour had swept to its first election victory in 1935 and thus, effectively, gutted both Reform and United, as well as what remained of the once great Liberal party. Since 1936, National has been a kind of schizophrenic beast, with its urban and rural wings in constant turmoil. Now, the farmers can see just who is in charge, and it isn't them, that's for sure.

Back in 2020, there was almost an uprising with a group calling themselves Groundswell. But this was really only National supporters trying to defuse unrest. But, this time is different because in 2020 it was Labour in power, but now it is their own, National, who are the tyrants.

National deserves to be destroyed, and now that the piss-weak Luxon is hanging around longer, that outcome looks increasingly likely. 

  

Weather Bomb Bust in New Zealand

New Zealand's National Party are now so desperate to appear relevant, they've manufactured an imminent tropical cyclone to scare everyone with. They had people sandbagging for days, and issued mandatory evacuation orders. Well, what happened? A bit of wind and rain is what happened. Study the weather map from Accuweather to see what the weather over the North Island looked like as Cyclone Vaianu was about to hit:

Of course the government will be saying, better to be prepared, but accuracy with forecasting is really important. Over-hyping a bit of rain means that eventually, people stop listening, and that may lead to people ignoring valid warnings.

This was, yet again, a pathetic attempt by National to appear relevant. They've kicked farmers and contractors in the teeth by doing nothing to mitigate high diesel prices caused by the fuel crisis. Now they're playing disaster politics. Can we please just get rid of these numpties.

Meanwhile, I'm sure the tame NZ media will have pictures of a couple of downed trees to scare everyone with. 

Weather North Island, NZ April 12th

National Want to Lose the Election in 2026

The cockwomble National government of New Zealand, led by Christopher Luxon, a man who looks like a timeshare salesman from the 1990s, seems to have given up. No doubt they're all brushing up their CVs as they've now dropped to 26% in the latest poll. For any government, that's catastrophic. 

Luxon has dropped to 17% as the preferred prime minister. Coalition partner Winston Peters, may soon pass him. Luxon is a man who can never find his spine.

The fuel crisis has exposed National's Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, who can only say she understands the issues, will talk to all stakeholders, have reports done, and reports on those reports, but who never actually does anything. She's a classic duck-shoving middle manager. 

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10181-nz-national-voting-intention-march-2026

Oil Crisis

Iran has clearly prepared for this and are setting about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. They're being successful at it, and are now attacking tankers and oil transfer facilities in the region.

For Australia and New Zealand, this is becoming an existential crisis. Already, farms in remote rural locations in Australia are finding they cannot obtain diesel. Hardware stores have sold out of jerry cans as people stock up. 

New Zealand is steadfastly blundering onward, their heads firmly in the sand. The country's leaders are woefully incompetent, it's like leaving a bunch of ten year-olds in charge. Here are some things to think about, diesel is essential to the nation, thus:

• Fuel oil is required for ships and all of NZ's fuel oil comes out of the Persian Gulf. If fuel oil runs out, there will be no Cook Strait ferries running, and no coastal shipping either. Forget imports and exports, as ships will not visit if they cannot fill up when they arrive.
• People will die as hospital back-up generators will have no fuel to run.
• Trains will not run, apart from electric commuter rail (the main trunk line in the North Island is partly electric).
• Farms will stop working.
• Mines will stop working and so no coal as a substitute.
• No trucks delivering goods to supermarkets.
• No factories processing food as parts of all operations require something diesel powered - we all start to starve in a country containing enough food to feed 50 million people. Crops will rot in the field.
• Natural disasters, how are we going to clear roads blocked by landslips?

Can you ride a horse? I can, but I guess they'll be in strong demand, so will be hard to find.

What is worse is that NZ does have oil, gas and coal, but it threw its refining capacity away - literally. EV's are not the answer either as the Gulf is the source of 90%+ of the industrial supplies of sulphur required to produce batteries - oh dear - rainbow hugs and moonbeams won't do it.

Instead of talking about it, get on with powering up some ability to produce diesel, bio-diesel, anything. 

Fuel Prices Set to Spike

The utter stupidity of the New Zealand government is now on full display as the price of fuel is set to rise following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

New Zealand has its own oil, but no ability to refine it. That's because the NZ government allowed its one refinery to close down. 

Get working now you cockwomble NZ government. Get that refinery up and running again, pronto.

Wellington at Risk

New Zealand's capital city, Wellington, could be about to experience a serious depopulation event. That's because its ageing infrastructure is collapsing but its idiotic and immature council insist on prioritising cycleways over sewers. 

Currently, the main sewage processing facility is out of action, and this may go on for months. But, added to that is the underground pipes are old and giving away. Not only that, but the fresh water supply sees the streets leaking. This is a matter of urgent public health concern as sewage may get into the fresh water supply. If this gets much worse, I can see Wellington having to be evacuated, it is that bad. Birmingham type bad.

The government seems unable or unwilling to do anything about it. The New Zealand prime minister, Christopher Luxon, should sack the Wellington City Council and put in commissioners to run the city. In the last 16 years across NZ, this has occurred three times, but this disfunction in Wellington is by far the worst NZ has seen in 40 years - but nothing is done. Luxon is a craven middle manager, scared of his own shadow. He's indecisive and weak. 

Sack the Wellington City Council and put people in charge who actually know how to get things done. 

Manifesto for New Zealand

This weekend, I'm making my Manifesto for New Zealand available free on Kindle. Each problem identified, as I see it, then comes with its solution. 

There is a General Election due next year, and it will be, possibly, the most important in the country's history. NZ could go in any direction, sink or swim. Let's help it swim.

>>>Download Here<<<

Ken Horlor's Manifesto for New Zealand

New Zealand Government vs Opposition

It is good to see the New Zealand government and the Opposition coming up with ideas that reflect totally different perspectives.

Labour are NZs Opposition party and they've recently announced a capital gains tax (CGT) as a central policy leading into the General Election in 2026. This is good because it makes them unelectable. CGT's are political kryptonite in NZ.

NZ doesn't need a CGT. You cannot tax your way to prosperity. Think like Texas.

Australia is often compared to NZ. Oz has CGT, stamp duty, and a means tested retirement at age 67. Meanwhile, NZ has no CGT, no stamp duty, no inheritance taxes, no gift duty, and retirement at age 65 is not means tested. These are key points of difference between the two and what makes NZ superior to Australia. 

What NZ could do is lower taxes. Thinking like Texas means no tax and backing business. Businesses create employment and drive the economy forward. 

Don't think like Labour. Once a CGT gets hold, it'll expand and morph into a wealth tax. NZ will end up like the UK, and no-one wants to be like that hellhole.

Then, this week the Minister of Education, Erica Stanford made her stand by introducing a new school curriculum for years 0-10. It is a knowledge-based curriculum, you know, students will have to know stuff. No more rainbow hugs and unicorn kisses. This is long overdue, and of course it's being panned by all the vested interests who want to avoid doing any work.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/577108/govt-releases-full-draft-of-curriculum-for-years-0-10

Council of Trade Unions Call for More Electricity Generation

About time New Zealand heard this; the country has done very little to add electricity generation despite the population growing and demand for electricity increasing. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/574564/unions-call-for-return-of-electricity-generators-to-public-ownership

"We spent 30 years consistently underinvesting in rail in New Zealand. Then we privatised and hoped for the best. That failed. We had to bring it back into public ownership, and we're having to reinvest to get it off the ground.

"We're facing exactly the same problem with electricity in New Zealand, we spent a decade or more underinvesting in electricity generation - clean, renewable energy generation in New Zealand, the problems we face are a consequences of those under investment."

Yet Another Pointless Announcement

OK, I was scammed by this. When I heard that New Zealand Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, had announced a major data services centre by Amazon, I genuinely thought, finally, a job well done.

But it turned out to be nothing much. The building of this infrastructure by Amazon was announced back in 2021. They started construction on a site but stopped when ground conditions were found to be unfavourable. That site now sits empty. What Amazon apparently then did is they placed their services alongside others run by separate companies, and voila, Amazon was up and running. So, then up jumps Luxon and claims all of this was down to him and his government; a service that was started under a previous administration and is now not doing anything new at all.

New Zealand is the land of announcement without substance. In this case, it must be a poll is due or something.

https://www.interest.co.nz/technology/135013/cloud-giant-amazon-web-services-finally-officially-opens-its-new-zealand-data

Chris Bishop - Clown

Update: this proposal, moving from a fuel tax paid directly at the time of purchase, to an indirect payment via bank accounts has the look of China interfering in things. Sounds conspiratorial I know, but they do have a system where all users pay for all miles electronically. It is possible the NZ government have done a technology deal with China, and this will allow China to sell their technology and know everything about our vehicle use at the same time.

The New Zealand Minister of Transport, Chris Bishop has announced plans to change the way road users are taxed. He wants to move the NZ transport fleet onto a fully digital platform, with every vehicle paying according to the weight class of the vehicle, monthly direct. He likened this to paying for your Netflix account.

Currently, petrol vehicles pay fuel taxes on each litre of petrol poured, while diesel vehicles pay Road User Charges (RUC's). Light diesels pay off the odometer, while heavy diesels pay via a hubodometer fitted to a wheel hub on the truck. Diesels have to display their RUC sticker, and if they're caught not having the mileage paid for, they can receive heavy fines.

So, what's wrong with the proposal as put? For starters, for most road users it means yet another bill arriving at the end of the month. We need that like we need a hole in the head. Right now, we pay at the pump and that covers maybe 80% of all users. So, we pay the once now, what's wrong with that and why change it? Then, the car fleet is quite old and so all these cars will require a costly upgrade to add the technology to them. Many people simply do not have this kind of money. And another problem; the tax is now paid when the petrol is bought. That's simple and effective. But, under this new scheme, what happens when the road user cannot pay?

The reason Bishop wants the change is because EV's and hybrids mean less fuel is being sold, and so the tax take is down. Those batteries are heavy, and they cause more damage to the roads by adding weight to every journey. 

Here's a simple solution Bishop has not thought of: why not raise the price of annual vehicle registration for EV's and hybrids, and adjust the amount of fuel tax taken as well, to cover for any increase in road use over the year. Yes, this would mean a slight subsidy by petrol cars of hybrids but it would be a small amount and easily forgotten as there would be no extra steps required, just the amount would differ.

Bishop was on the TV talking about how easy it would be for cars to be fitted with transponders. Err...that's old tech, he's so out of touch. I was in Queensland when they went from transponders to number plate recognition. They're now so advanced, they know the vehicle and how much it has on board (truck ride height and the like is measured).

Chris Bishop is as silly as a wet hen. 

Labour are no better, their leader Chris Hipkins agrees with Bishop. Clearly, it hasn't occurred to him to simply adjust EV and hybrid registration fees and to make an adjustment to fuel taxes.

Another problem which will be felt in the poorer regions; car users will be incentivised to not bother registering or getting a Warrant of Fitness (WOF) for the car. You must have a WOF to be registered, so I'm guessing part of the WOF procedure will involve checking the car is enabled for road user charges. What will happen? Car owners will increasingly not bother getting a WOF, thereby not registering, and driving uninsured. Some regions have only 60% compliance at the moment. If the fuel at the pump is cheaper, why spend money on an old car to bring it up to speed! So, the roads will have even more unregistered vehicles out there.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/569149/road-user-charges-for-all-vehicles-move-a-step-closer

New Zealand Defence Announcement

New Zealand's government announced spending on replacement helicopters today. The announcement comes before the announcement of what will actually be bought, at some point in the future. So, let's see if I've got this right; today, an announcement was made, announcing a plan will be put in place, then that body will announce at some distant point, what it plans to purchase. Then, no doubt, it will then be announced that the purchase is going ahead, followed by an announcement that a contract has been signed. 

What New Zealand has at the moment is government by announcement. Nothing actually gets done. Instead, intentions are announced as if that means something, which of course it doesn't. 

The government today, announced a later announcement, which will announce something in the future, which will then be announced when confirmed. That's what happened today.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/559866/defence-force-maritime-helicopters-to-be-replaced-at-cost-of-over-2-billion

The government has set aside $2 billion from this year's Budget to replace the navy's Seasprite helicopters, boosting their disaster response and aid capabilities.

A further $957 million over four years will be spent on Defence Force activities, personnel and property.

A spokesperson later confirmed this largely operational spending was additional money in the coming Budget, and was separate to the $12b estimated spend over 15 years from the Defence Capability Plan.

Defence Minister Judith Collins announced the spending in a pre-Budget announcement alongside Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, Associate Defence Minister Chris Penk, and top brass from the Defence Force at Whenuapai Air Force base in Auckland.

She confirmed the government would look to purchase five new helicopters, but exactly when they would arrive would depend on a business case being developed before the end of the year.

(bold added)

Food Unaffordable in New Zealand

New Zealand produces enough food to feed a population of 60 million. But it only has 5 million. Despite that, Kiwis pay ridiculously high food prices, and that's because the food chain is controlled by a duopoly, two big supermarket chains. 

Successive governments always promise retail reform, threatening to break up these two giants. Why don't they do it? They promise, conduct inquiries, and constantly look into it. Endless looking, never any doing.

So, the government does the usual again, announcing possible changes. Maybe, in a couple of years time. Is this announcement because National are behind the opposition Labour party in recent polls? That's probably it, because National will never actually do anything. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/556597/nicola-willis-considers-structural-separation-of-retail-grocery-market

The government says all options are on the table to introduce more competition into the supermarket sector, which could include the break-up or restructuring of the two existing supermarket chains.

Currently the Woolworths and Foodstuffs chains dominate New Zealand's supermarket sector.

Cabinet has also agreed to a formal request for information (RFI) to accelerate improved competition.

<snip>

"Officials are working with the appointed advisors to consider options including a possible demerger of existing entities."

Willis said there were a range of views about what that design would look like.

"Do you separate the wholesale from the retail? Do you split the existing brands up? And if you do that, what is required in terms of their wholesaling and warehousing and logistics, how would they be broken up to match the new brands?"

The advice she is seeking asks "what actually is the ideal market structure" and how can that be achieved.

See what passes for government in New Zealand? They really are useless.

Chinese Warship Presence

Chinese warships are sailing off the east coast of Australia, near Sydney. New Zealand has gone into a panic, particularly as it lacks a navy and air force. By that I mean, NZ has no warship capable of meaningful surface combat and it completely lacks a fast, high flying air-to-air and air-to-surface strike capability. The current mess NZ finds itself in is a direct result of the Helen Clark years, when she said NZ lived in a benign security environment. Could anyone be more stupid? They couldn't, that's why NZ's prime minister at the time, moved on to the United Nations after her tenure came to an end. Since then, things have worsened, so much so that now NZ lacks a defence altogether. 

NZ, grow a pair, and employ drones capable of patrolling NZ's maritime environment and with the ability to attack. This would be enough to deter aggressors.

New Zealand Government Spending

Since 2020, New Zealand government spending as a percentage of GDP has increased markedly. Both the Labour and now National governments are drunk on spending taxpayers money. Of course, the economy is also contracting slightly, and this makes things worse. Basically, tax cuts won't address the problem, what we need right now is a reduction in government spending overall.

New Covid Inquiry for New Zealand

The old Royal Commission of Inquiry into Covid will wrap up and then another inquiry will carry on under a new Chair and Commissioners. Finally, the New Zealand Government has listened to the people.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-covid-19-inquiry-announced-nz-firsts-winston-peters-invokes-agree-to-disagree-clause-for-first-time-of-coalition-government/2CWE2Q3XXZCOPEVRE4KS3CXOUQ/

https://www.nzfirst.nz/the-new-covid19-inquiry

Newshub Bailout Looms?

I've been closely following statements by New Zealand cabinet ministers, about the plight of TV3's News operation and its planned shutdown by Warner Bros. Discovery. It's looking increasingly likely that this private company will be getting a taxpayer funded bailout. It makes my blood boil.

These were people who championed lockdowns and the jab. They're the lowest of the low. 

This latest government hasn't been in office very long, so it's about time they learnt to read the room. TV3 are loathed by the majority of the people. Bail them out at your peril as if you do, your re-election chances will plummet. Use taxpayer funds to deliver long awaited improvements to the country's infrastructure instead. 

Just watch the outrage if Newshub gets bailed out 

NZ's Luxon Next Churchill?

Brilliant cartoon from Jeff Bell...

Cook Strait Connection

With the government refusing to fund the cost blowout of the proposed upgrade to the Cook Strait ferry service run by KiwiRail, is it time to revisit the idea of a Cook Strait tunnel?

I addressed the feasibility of such a project here: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/01/cook-strait-tunnel.html

The government has turned down KiwiRail: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/504650/interislander-ferry-fleet-project-to-wind-down-after-being-denied-further-government-funding

New Zealand is a funny little country at times. It always chases the newest fad, and ditches the old quickly. Problem is, when the fad is no longer viable or is proven to be a dud, nothing is left to revert back to. This is what has happened to NZ's transport network. Rail and coastal shipping have been left to atrophy while the country got carried away with road and air transport. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost. NZ needs to think longer term, keeping all options available for a robust system. This is vital as the country has many rivers, and a long thin country made up of many islands. Keeping the country connected means juggling everything, not just relying on a few options.