New Zealand First Plunges in Polling

A general election will be held in New Zealand on the 7th of November, 2026. Minor government coalition partner, NZ First, has campaign hoardings up around the country, the main message being: New Zealanders First. Note, not New Zealand first, but only New Zealanders first.

They've followed that up with a policy that only Kiwi citizens can receive National Superannuation (pension). Such a policy excludes all those with permanent residence, but who still rely on their overseas passport. 

This has got to be a policy that represents the biggest act of self-harm I've yet witnessed on the campaign trail. New Zealand is an inclusive country that doesn't 'other' people. Not only that, many keep with their foreign passport as often their country of origin doesn't allow dual citizenship. They choose to keep one foot in each camp for all kinds of reasons, the principal one being they can exist in a legal sense back home. Think inheritances, property transfers and the like. 

NZ First has plummeted in two of the most recent public opinion polls. What the geniuses at NZ First failed to realise is that a lot of their voters were permanent residents with the right to vote. Now, they're not going to vote NZ First, and the party may slip below the 5% threshold under MMP and be out of parliament. 

Stupid doesn't even begin to describe NZ First. 

The Opportunity Party

New Zealand voters will have noticed the rise of The Opportunity Party, TOP, in the polls. The media is pushing them hard, not a day goes by without them being mentioned.

Rumour is, they've been taken over by Labour and they're now a budget brand of Labour and the Greens. Hearing this, I tried to find things out; who exactly is the TOP leader married to? His name is Grant. That's it, Grant. Good luck getting more information on him. I heard he was related to Labour leader Chris Hipkins, I wonder if that's true?

Then another rumour has the TOP deputy leader related to James Shaw, former Greens leader.

Given the silence around the real name and career of the TOP leader's husband, and the sudden excitement of the media at everything TOP, with gushing praise that is sick inducing, I WILL NOT be voting for these tax tax tax fiends in the 2026 general election.

Thought New Zealanders ought to be forewarned. 

Fuel Crisis Real

With war going fully regional in the Middle East, we are now looking at the possibility of diesel running out. This is not a pricing exercise, it is a have nothing at all crisis. I put it like this; if you have no water you're dead two and a half days later. It doesn't matter that a bottle of water hundreds of miles away is only a dollar, you can't reach it, so you die.

When it comes to diesel, it is like that complete lack of water. No diesel, no economy. It doesn't matter that diesel in some other part of the world is cheap, or whatever.

Thing is, both the Australia and New Zealand governments have had months to solve this, but they played politics, happy feelings, sing kumbaya, hope and pray.

Les Mills - Legend

New Zealand fitness industry heavyweight, Les Mills, has died at the age of 91. Les Mills founded Les Mills World of Fitness. Their fitness programs are sold by thousands of gyms worldwide. In the US alone there are about 4,000 gyms selling a Les Mills program. If you've seen BODYPUMP, BODYPUMP HEAVY, or BODYATTACK then these are Les Mills intellectual property. I often joke that we'll soon see PUMPIDYPUMPPUMP as a brand. Maybe BOOTYPUMP. There is no limit to the number of PUMPS possible.

Les Mills was a New Zealand Commonwealth Games field athlete who won a gold medal in the discus. He also won a silver medal in the shot put. Later, he coached Beatrice Faumuina to a world championship in the discus. 

Apart from sport and fitness, Mills was mayor of Auckland for eight years. He was big man, big in character and stature. His son built the business he founded into an international success story, but back in NZ he had little understanding of how big his name was. When visiting Texas, he was surprised at people's reaction upon meeting him, they were surprised Les Mills was a real person, not some French company!

I sometimes use Les Mills as an example of NZ's soft power. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/life/people/celebrity/gym-chain-founder-and-olympian-les-mills-snr-has-died

Hegseth Calls Out New Zealand

Well, it's been a long wait, but finally the US is calling out New Zealand for its lack of defence spending. Currently, New Zealand cannot even secure its own air space and it has naval vessels tied up because it has no crew for the ships. And even if crew existed, it's doubtful NZ could even find the money to pay them, within existing budgets. 

I've often written about this parlous state of affairs. I have tracked the decline in NZ defence spending to the start of NZ's MMP method of choosing political leaders (MMP = Mixed Member Proportional). From that date, 1996, defence spending started to fall off a cliff. The reason for this is easily explained; to form a government, the various parties contesting elections must form coalitions and make deals. Defence is always the unwanted cousin, and so is quickly traded away. Thus, now NZ's military barely exists. 

The current NZ government plans may as well be filed under, believe it when you see it. They're all talk, making endless announcements of announcements, going to do this, intending to do that, conducting consultations, examinations, it is most unseemly. 

However, the only issue I have is with the way the US is going about this; it won't have the desired effect. Usually, NZ is spoken to behind the scenes, quietly. With the approach the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, is taking, don't expect NZ to spend more on American equipment.

New Zealand If It Was...

Over Europe:

NZ Over Europe

Over North America:

NZ Over USA

All areas in pink are NZ, including the little dots, being outlying islands. Not so small eh. Images have been rotated to reflect climate equivalence.

These images care of The True Size Of

Action Required Now, Don't Wait

It is obvious the conflict in the Persian Gulf is not going to end anytime soon. Even if it does end today, oil flows will be down for the next year or two. That's because oil shore facilities have been damaged and will take time to repair, thus, the volume of oil that can be loaded will be well down. Additionally, oil storage facilities are nearing capacity and when these are maxed out, oil wells will start shutting down. Starting things up again is always a problem, often taking months, even years.

Both Australia and New Zealand need to take action now. Start building capacity of its own. Australia can build more refineries, and NZ should begin its stalled lignite to diesel project in Southland. Additionally, both should be looking to contract alternative supplies. Australia could try buying output from Uganda through the Tanzanian port of Tanga. This oil will become available later this year. New Zealand should see if it can buy finished fuels from the new giant Dangote refinery in Nigeria. Whatever options are available, both countries should be working at fever pitch, night and day to solve the problem.

What's particularly weird is that NZ still exports its high grade, light and sweet crude, while its own diesel tanks are about to run out. NZ has no plans underway to distill this easily processed crude into diesel. The NZ government is that stupid.

Both Australia and New Zealand are like possums caught in the headlights, they appear bereft of ideas.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/3/4/producers-face-storage-crunch-as-hormuz-shutdown-traps-middle-east-crude/#:~:text=In%20theory,%20the%20Arab%20producers,be%20extended%20by%20a%20week.

“If oil producers reach ‘tank tops’ for lack of export outlets, then they have to curtail output,” Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst of geospatial analytics company Kayrros, said in a post on LinkedIn.

Emergency Planning for New Zealand

Forget raindrops, diesel is running low. New Zealand has 21 days onshore, in tanks, right now. Three weeks and if any of the ships inbound don't arrive, the country runs out and the economy fails.

I looked things up and found the country can survive, kind of. NZ has about 100 steam locomotives, 20 of which are in regular use and ready to go. These operate on heritage lines and do tourist excursions. They may have to go back to work. Likewise, traction engine operators may be called upon.

The central section of the North Island main trunk railway line is electrified, thanks to Rob Muldoon's Think Big scheme, and another Think Big was NZ's conversion of LPG to urea fertiliser, which supplies a third of urea required by farmers. 

So, NZ will not come to a complete standstill, and farms will still be able to operate, but farmers may need to get back on the horse. Coal is still plentiful, it may come in handy.

NZ has a lot of wood waste, and this can be converted to biodiesel. However, the problem with biodiesel is it has a higher freezing point, so cannot be used in colder areas; think central North Island and the South Island's alpine areas and Otago and Southland. 

When food arrives in cities, electric vehicles will be needed to pick goods up and move them to warehouses and shops. Some electric buses could have their seats removed and be used as vans.

Given how stretched things will be, the country will need to work 24/7. To move around within cities, people will have to ride bicycles and electric vehicles. Many buses are now electric and they will still be working. However, as diesel vehicles are needed to maintain the electrical infrastructure, there will be more frequent outages, and people will die as back-up generators in hospitals will have nothing in the tank, or only 3 hours with refueling delayed beyond that. Fire engines may be unavailable if the country runs out of diesel. There are countless ways NZ will be adversely affected by the loss of diesel, these are just a few examples.

NZ needs to start taking this seriously. I have a plan and this should have been done already: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Update: The NZ government is incompetent. To think they're the party of the farmers! And yet they've kicked farmers in the teeth. Will farmers realise they're in an abusive relationship, or will they, as always, go back to their abuser, believing this time will be different?

Update: Reuters is reporting that Russia, from the 1st of May, is going to stop the transfer of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via a pipeline that runs through their territory. This will put more pressure on existing fuel supplies as Germany looks to replace this lost supply with other sources of crude being imported by ship. NZ is at the end of the supply chain and has no leverage due to the small quantities required, thus, it is likely to be further squeezed. The NZ government appears oblivious.

Blockade of a Blockade Restricts Supply

The United States has now put into effect its blockade of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; a blockade of a blockade. For any country importing its oil from the Persian Gulf, this makes things much worse. That's because, with Iran's single blockade, some oil did get through. Take China as an example, they obtain about 40% of their total energy imports from the Gulf. Now, that supply appears shut off, which forces China to start buying from other suppliers, driving up the price of oil generally, but also denying smaller nations like Australia and New Zealand. China's volume demand is so great, they could now soak up everything. 

What is astonishing to me is how lightly the Australian and New Zealand governments are taking this. They are like sheep being led into the abattoir. Immediate action is required - this is what the NZ government must do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Weather Bomb Bust in New Zealand

New Zealand's National Party are now so desperate to appear relevant, they've manufactured an imminent tropical cyclone to scare everyone with. They had people sandbagging for days, and issued mandatory evacuation orders. Well, what happened? A bit of wind and rain is what happened. Study the weather map from Accuweather to see what the weather over the North Island looked like as Cyclone Vaianu was about to hit:

Of course the government will be saying, better to be prepared, but accuracy with forecasting is really important. Over-hyping a bit of rain means that eventually, people stop listening, and that may lead to people ignoring valid warnings.

This was, yet again, a pathetic attempt by National to appear relevant. They've kicked farmers and contractors in the teeth by doing nothing to mitigate high diesel prices caused by the fuel crisis. Now they're playing disaster politics. Can we please just get rid of these numpties.

Meanwhile, I'm sure the tame NZ media will have pictures of a couple of downed trees to scare everyone with. 

Weather North Island, NZ April 12th

Useful Map from JP Morgan

Study the map to find out where and when fuel gets to critical levels in each region. Each area circled shows where fuel supply starts to become critical. The east coast of Africa is first, they're already feeling it. Then the Far East from the 1st of April. Europe follows on April 10th, and the US April 15th. Lastly, Australia and NZ feel the pinch from April 20th.

Why haven't governments hit the panic button yet? The reason: they're living in a false spring, either hoping supplies will resume, or refusing to see the bigger picture. What consumers are putting in their vehicles now are refined fuels from crude shipped back from before the war started. As those stocks from earlier gradually run out, the pinch will be felt, and fast. 

JP Morgan Map of Critical Oil Supplies

Food Rationing Coming Soon

Diesel could soon run out, and if that happens, food shortages will become very real. Australia is openly talking about it, and New Zealand must wake up.

The governments of Australia and New Zealand are inept, we need to get started with securing diesel supplies NOW.

Australia and New Zealand Get Roasted

Deserved shellacking this:

For New Zealand, a whole series of decisions amounted to sabotage.

New Zealand Fuel Crisis - Action Required NOW

Here's my plan for sorting this:

1. Emergency declared under existing legislation, wartime economy. Government puts the entire liquid fuels infrastructure under direct government control.

2. Get the University of Canterbury and University of Auckland mechanical and chemical engineers on board, together with the NZ Army engineers (Sappers);

3. They've got 60 days to come up with a distillation solution producing enough diesel to keep the wheels and machinery moving;

4. The government enters the spot market for diesel, anywhere, any quality;

5. Get all farmers and transport operators to disable or remove their emissions systems, and get ready to run regular high sulphur fuel;

6. Bring the fuel in through existing shore facilities, price controlled and distributed according to direct state orders;

7. Arrest anyone who gets in the way, and prosecute any price gouging.

8. In the medium term, once this framework is established within 48 hours, begin feasibility studies on immediate production of biodisesel and lignite to diesel;

9. With immediate effect, ban the export of NZ crude oil and LPG;

10. Import LPG conversion kits for cars and vans.

11. With all this underway and framework stabilised, then worry about fertiliser (this prioritises tractors, machinery and trucks over chemicals in the ground - it is what it is).

Now, get on with it. Why is the government not taking action? Reports are that even if the conflict is resolved tomorrow, it will take 6 months to get the flow normal again. But, the likelihood is this conflict will be all year at least. We must act NOW.

Tax-Free Downunder

Here's an idea, New Zealand should move to mop up all the money that will be fleeing the United Arab Emirates right now. All those seeking the tax-free life, don't like receiving messages on their phone telling them their friendly neighbourhood missile will be arriving shortly.

A few years ago I suggested NZ set up a tax-free zone in the East Cape. Let's do this now. For people from overseas, we could take part of the coast and designate it tax-free so long as they stay resident for 120+ days of the year (or something). 

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/07/make-east-cape-monaco.html

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2018/06/making-east-cape-monaco.html

Message - Don't Panic

Here's a rational explanation as to why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is NOT an apocalyptic crisis. Although I'd add that some regions will be far more seriously impacted than others. The Far East, South-east Asia and Oceania being top of that list. China has stopped exporting fuels, which further restricts supply to the region.

OpenStar Nuclear Fusion

New Zealand nuclear fusion company, OpenStar Technologies, has reached a critical milestone, and the NZ Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, was there to push the big green button as the process was turned on in Wellington.

OpenStar could do a better job of explaining exactly what they're doing. Imagine we are all 10 years old. I say this because I'm left wondering what exactly this milestone was?

Lydia Ko at Millbrook

Lydia Ko is such a wonderful person. Here she is in New Zealand playing a round of golf with friends at the Millbook Resort, near Arrowtown in Otago, the South Island of New Zealand. 

USA Taking Greenland

Here's a counterproposal to the idea that the US should get Greenland. I'm putting this here for balance.

Personally, I think the US taking over Greenland makes a lot of sense, and earlier I embedded the reasoning behind that as explained on the UnHerd podcast.

With the US now looking at Greenland, it is only a matter of time, perhaps, until the US looks at the South Pacific and annexes New Zealand to gain easy access to Antarctica. The US has a base at Christchurch International Airport, from which they fly down to McMurdo Station, which is situated on Ross Island. Technically, this all sits within NZ territory, and given climate change and the resources contained there, the US may want complete control of the region.

I don't think these latest moves come exclusively from Donald Trump. What we are seeing is a shift in American thinking, from having close allies, like Five Eyes, to having branch office operations. We now see Britain, Denmark, Norway, etc being treated like a corporate branch office. Do what we say, or we shut you down type of thinking. My only surprise in witnessing this shift is that it is happening much faster than I anticipated.

New Zealand Launch

Heh, Australia, launched anything into space from your own territory yet? Nothing?