NBA: 2018 Warriors vs Cavaliers

It's going to be another big showdown; the Warriors against LeBron James - again. LeBron James, the best basketball player to have played the game.

2017 NBA Finals

I'm picking the Cavaliers to take the series 4-2. I like their talent and hunger. The Cavs coasted for part of the season, hence their poorer regular season but they're much better than that. Meanwhile the Warriors only have Kevin Durant as an extra and in the past he's proven to be Mr Absent when it matters. What do you think?

This is how I think the finals will go (famous last words I know):

Game 1 Cavs [Wrong: Warriors 113 - Cavs 91]
Game 2 Warriors [Right]
Game 3 Cavs [Uh oh, Cavs at risk of going out]
Game 4 Cavs [Only the second time I've been right]
Game 5 Warriors [And congrats to the Warriors]



Cavs 4 Warriors 2 [Got this completely wrong]

NBA Regular Season

Following on from what I said earlier, that NBA players are given too many easy looks, watching games as the regular season moves into the critical stage, I notice play is now much more competitive. Not so many easy looks, teams that are trying to make the playoffs are definitely contesting and getting up on shooters to put them off.

The pattern I observed earlier I put down to professionalism. In order to survive so many regular season games, teams do not play so competitively. Now the season is at the do or die stage, the intensity has lifted.

I've always admired the play of Matt Barnes. He looks the complete player to me, but he's been something of a Nomad. But he finally got lucky and is now with the Golden State Warriors after being waived by the Sacramento Kings. The Kings must have pulled off one of the worst trade deals of all time in trading away DeMarcus Cousins, and then getting rid of Barnes to make room for the three players they acquired. Barnes may have the last laugh if the Warriors win the title. This is possible now Andrew Bogut has broken his leg and the Cavaliers don't have his muscle on the inside.

NBA: LeBron James Hunting Back-to-Back Titles in Cleveland

I noticed Andrew Bogut signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers of the NBA. Cleveland are looking for a big man to rough up the Golden State Warriors on the inside, and what better player to do that than the big Aussie who won a title with the Warriors.

Also note the Cavs added Kyle Korver for his three point accuracy, and Derrick Williams for more thuggery (I mean that politely of course, I admire such things, bring back the biff I say).

It's yet to be seen if this strategy will work. I'm watching carefully, there are aspects to their formula I agree with. What's my formula?

Three things needed to win titles:

1. An intense hatred of losing. Not a joy of winning, or just don't like losing. The type of players needed hate losing so much they throw up after the game. How to find these players is more interesting, I look for players that are an attitude problem. This has only backfired once when one player I recruited needed to be waived as he was going to be killed by his teammates.

2. A heightened sense of personal accountability. Players that do it the right way and if they foul up they put it right - immediately. I call this having a turbo up their arse.

3. Luck. A certain amount of luck, Think Napoleon noting there were two types of general, good generals and lucky generals and of the two he preferred lucky generals. Lucky players have the knack of looking at the ref and getting the call their way.

Denver Nuggets v Cleveland Cavaliers - Statistics

Today's NBA game between the Nuggets and the Cavaliers produced a set of figures even more stark than the earlier Warriors v Grizzlies match-up.

I followed the Nuggets v Cavaliers game from the 8:10 mark in the third quarter, until the end of the game. This was to compare apples with apples. This time I made a note of open looks, not just when shots were taken.

From the 8:10 mark in the third quarter, until game end; the Denver Nuggets took a shot from an offensive set that involved three or fewer passes, 100% of the time. 47% of those shots were completely open looks.

The Cleveland Cavaliers took such a shot 99% of the time, 45% of those being completely open looks.

This 'open look' figure would be higher if I included lay-ups, which I decided not to include, only set or jump shots in open play.

The Nuggets started out 13 points down and ended the game 16 points adrift. This has got to be a failed strategy then, that of bombing away without considering whether the shot is truly on or not. But then, were the Nuggets trying to win? Or were they maintaining an open style of play with a lot of shots, in order to entertain, with the result being secondary.

During the monitored period of play there were no suspect calls of the type I've mentioned; that is where the referee relieves the pressure for a favoured attacking team by calling an off-the-ball foul, but then the offense generally flowed for both sides.

The only dodgy call was in the third quarter when the Cavaliers Kyrie Irving was called out of bounds. He had stepped out but then put a foot back in, the other foot being in the air, when he regained control of the ball. Someone may like to correct me if I'm wrong, but generally in basketball, if you're out of bounds, you re-establish yourself inbound by having a piece of you touching the floor, which Irving had actually done. I figured this incorrect call was designed to hand the Nuggets possession and keep the game close coming up to half time. But then I could be getting paranoid.

I'm going to stick my neck out and call this matter proven. There appears a modus operandi whereby players are left open most often on the second or third pass of an offensive set, and when behind on the scoreboard the tactics employed rarely change, the spectacle must be maintained. The teams are not playing to win.

What tactics should the Nuggets have employed? The approach that seemed to get them the best results was to slow their offense down and feed their big man, Jokic. He would either draw shooting fouls or get a close two points. They did not do this often enough, preferring to try and look good instead. Then on defense they did not foul enough. They needed to send Cavaliers players to the free throw line more often. But then my approach lacks pizazz, hmm.