Dangote Too Cheap

The World Bank is putting pressure on Nigeria to get Dangote to lift its prices, they're selling refined oil too cheap. You cannot make this up!

What About Crew Stuck in the Persian Gulf?

What has been happening to the crew stuck on ships caught in the Persian Gulf? I've been wondering if some crew may simply abandon ship, and then row to shore while leaving the vessel anchored.

Jet Fuel Running Out

The opening of the Strait of Hormuz didn't last long, and now we are looking at airlines shutting down or going out of business. This is not a pricing issue, it is an absolute scarcity of the key resource - kerosene. Only a small proportion of each barrel of oil turns into kerosene, otherwise known as jet fuel.

Iran Opens Strait, For Now

Good news, Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz so long as the ceasefire in Lebanon holds. Ships must still go through their tollgate though, which limits the speed with which ships can exit the Gulf. I checked on Marine Traffic's website and there isn't a flood of vessels underway, but expect this number to increase significantly. 

Now, Australia and NZ governments, don't sit back and claim credit for everything while doing precisely nothing. Now is the window of opportunity to come up with distillation solutions for your own oil. How long do you need just sitting around on your hands, you clowns!

Here's what to do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Massive Oil Downunder

The corrupt politicians will tell everyone there is no oil in Australia or New Zealand. Quite the contrary, both contain massive resources of oil that are almost diesel coming up out of the ground.

LIV Golf Could End Soon

Reports are coming in that the Saudi backed golf tour, LIV Golf, could have the plug pulled on it. It makes sense as Saudi Arabia has suffered a severe hit to its revenues. They can still ship oil out through their Red Sea port, but the capacity there is limited, so the double-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz must end soon.

Saudi Arabia spend a lot on sports in an attempt to soften their image worldwide. They invest in major soccer teams, boxing, motor sports, sailing, the list is endless. 

What will happen to the golfers now playing on the LIV tour? My guess is most of them will find a way back into the PGA. That's because the PGA really does need them for their talent. If they try to ban them, then that leaves a player pool wandering around the place who may form into another tour and, perhaps, outdo the PGA. It's an old quandary any business faces; don't leave assets out there that someone else may operate better.

Professional sport across the world is about to have a serious haircut if this conflict goes on much longer. That's because it isn't just Saudi Arabia sports washing, add the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain to the list as well. Take away that money and the value of many pro sports franchises starts to plummet.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/apr/16/liv-and-let-die-golf-rebels-count-cost-saudi-cutbacks

A slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s lavish spending on sport, which is conservatively estimated to have cost the kingdom more than $10bn in the past five years, had been expected, but its Public Investment Fund’s withdrawal of financial support for the rebel tour – which was first mooted to LIV execs on Monday – has caused shockwaves throughout the wider industry.

Significantly, the possibility of PIF’s withdrawal was not even addressed in an email sent by the LIV chief executive, Scott O’Neil, to his staff on Wednesday evening, which has left many of them more fearful for their jobs. Such concerns are not limited to golf, with other sports administrators fearful that similar cuts in Saudi’s budget could be coming their way.

Food Shortages Possible Australia

Things are getting really bad Downunder.

Refinery Fire in Australia

What are the chances of this randomly happening when it did? 

Blockade of a Blockade Restricts Supply

The United States has now put into effect its blockade of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; a blockade of a blockade. For any country importing its oil from the Persian Gulf, this makes things much worse. That's because, with Iran's single blockade, some oil did get through. Take China as an example, they obtain about 40% of their total energy imports from the Gulf. Now, that supply appears shut off, which forces China to start buying from other suppliers, driving up the price of oil generally, but also denying smaller nations like Australia and New Zealand. China's volume demand is so great, they could now soak up everything. 

What is astonishing to me is how lightly the Australian and New Zealand governments are taking this. They are like sheep being led into the abattoir. Immediate action is required - this is what the NZ government must do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Oil - Lots of It

What does a barrel of oil contain, what products are derived from it, and what are the different types of crude oil?

1. Types of Crude

2. Refining Process - Like Making Moonshine

 

3. Refining Output - Various Products

Why the Strait of Hormuz Is So Important to Australia and New Zealand

A bit of simple arithmetic is needed to explain why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz could destroy the economies of Australia and New Zealand.

Both countries rely on imported refined product from Asia. New Zealand is wholly dependent while Australia is about 90% dependent. China has ceased exporting product, so cross them off the list. That leaves, for the most part; South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia as suppliers.

South Korea processes up to 3.4m bpd (million barrels per day), 2.5m of which is consumed domestically. 70% of their supply comes from the Middle East.

Singapore processes about 1.5m bpd, and they import 70% of their oil from the Middle East.

Malaysia processes about 900,000 bpb, and they import about 40% of that oil from the Middle East as they have their own oil wells. Domestically, they consume about 77% of the total and export the rest.

I trust you may begin to see the problem. With a huge amount of Middle Eastern oil coming through the Strait, but now shut off, these Asian economies will need to prioritise their own market first, and even then they'll come up short.

South Korea has begun buying oil from Canada, about 800,000 barrels per day. That's well short of the 2.4m bpd needed. They can only just supply themselves, leaving nothing to export. 

Singapore looks set to lose 1.0m bpd, and that equates to the daily consumption of Australia. Forget NZ, they'll just be left to fail.

Malaysia, just to supply its own needs, will have to import from other sources, just as South Korea is doing.

All of this adds up to a very serious predicament Downunder. I see the Philippines has declared a state of emergency, and that is a wise thing to do. Australia and New Zealand need to follow suit as this war in the Middle East could drag on for a long time, that much is obvious. 

Another link - what to do NOW https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Weather Bomb Bust in New Zealand

New Zealand's National Party are now so desperate to appear relevant, they've manufactured an imminent tropical cyclone to scare everyone with. They had people sandbagging for days, and issued mandatory evacuation orders. Well, what happened? A bit of wind and rain is what happened. Study the weather map from Accuweather to see what the weather over the North Island looked like as Cyclone Vaianu was about to hit:

Of course the government will be saying, better to be prepared, but accuracy with forecasting is really important. Over-hyping a bit of rain means that eventually, people stop listening, and that may lead to people ignoring valid warnings.

This was, yet again, a pathetic attempt by National to appear relevant. They've kicked farmers and contractors in the teeth by doing nothing to mitigate high diesel prices caused by the fuel crisis. Now they're playing disaster politics. Can we please just get rid of these numpties.

Meanwhile, I'm sure the tame NZ media will have pictures of a couple of downed trees to scare everyone with. 

Weather North Island, NZ April 12th

Iran's Victory Changes Everything

The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until all of Iran's demands are met. Iran is calling the shots, and no-one can challenge them.

Useful Map from JP Morgan

Study the map to find out where and when fuel gets to critical levels in each region. Each area circled shows where fuel supply starts to become critical. The east coast of Africa is first, they're already feeling it. Then the Far East from the 1st of April. Europe follows on April 10th, and the US April 15th. Lastly, Australia and NZ feel the pinch from April 20th.

Why haven't governments hit the panic button yet? The reason: they're living in a false spring, either hoping supplies will resume, or refusing to see the bigger picture. What consumers are putting in their vehicles now are refined fuels from crude shipped back from before the war started. As those stocks from earlier gradually run out, the pinch will be felt, and fast. 

JP Morgan Map of Critical Oil Supplies

Food Rationing Coming Soon

Diesel could soon run out, and if that happens, food shortages will become very real. Australia is openly talking about it, and New Zealand must wake up.

The governments of Australia and New Zealand are inept, we need to get started with securing diesel supplies NOW.

Australia's VC Hero Arrested and Charged

Ben Roberts-Smith is a living legend, the winner of the military's highest honour, the Victoria Cross. Now, he sits in a jail cell. Australia is plumbing the depths. This is a complete disgrace and out of control stupidity:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/08/ben-roberts-smith-brs-gina-rinehart-alleged-war-crimes-arrest-ntwnfb

“As the recently passed, Brigadier George Mansford succinctly stated, ‘The oath to serve your country did not include a contract for the normal luxuries and comforts enjoyed within our society. On the contrary, it implied hardship, loyalty and devotion to duty’.

“Have we lost sight of the fact that in our inadequately defended country, facing uncertain times, the morale of our defence force has already been brought to its lowest ebb since inception, our defence personnel numbers are inadequate, and recruitment is suffering.

“Like many Australians, I hope that compassion and the Aussie spirit is extended to Ben and his family and his duty to our country in the hardship of war is never forgotten.”

Iran Wins, US Defeated

If reports are to believed, big IF, then Iran is now one of the big four, and the big three of US, China and Russia have a new member. Iran has defeated the United States.

For a ceasefire to be called, Iran had ten key demands, and Donald Trump announced he's accepted all of them. This leaves Iran in complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf is now its lake.

The US defeat in Afghanistan was the biggest defeat of a western country in history, ancient or modern. Now, this surpasses that. But then, the ceasefire may end within 24 hours, who knows? One thing is for certain, countries are going to find it hard still as the oil isn't flowing yet, and it may take a year or two for flows to resume even if the will exists to make it so.

Update: thinking about this some more, this appears to be Iran's Battle of Britain moment. I'll explain, the BoB was a defensive action, with Britain's goal of avoiding outright defeat. The way the Germans saw it, they were simply trying to knock Britain out, then when they'd done that they turned around to deal with the bigger threat, Russia (then known as the USSR). Thus, Britain claims victory as they were still standing when the attacker quit. Germany, however, say they did not lose, they just changed priorities.

The reality was that Germany was losing aircraft at a rate where they could not replace them. Most losses were on the ground in takeoff and landing, in fact, not fighting in the air. If Germany had continued, they'd have simply run out of planes, while Britain's industry could replace theirs. The Germans badly underestimated the industrial output of the British Midlands.

This appears to be a similar situation in the Gulf. The US lost 11 or so aircraft just rescuing one downed airman, and their bases have all been destroyed in the region. Their carrier strike group has had to retreat well into the Arabian Sea, well away from cruise missiles. Scuttlebutt says that Trump did launch an attack on Iran, in line with his ultimatum, but that every Tomahawk cruise missile was taken out by Iran. He buckled after that, and I'm speculating he was told that the US was fast depleting its ordnance and that it couldn't be easily replaced. 

Israel has announced they do not consider their offensive in Lebanon as being covered by the ceasefire, and the Gulf states will be unhappy ending up effectively satraps of the new Iranian empire. Therefore, this ceasefire is unlikely to last any more than a few hours or days - we'll see.

And think, we have a Soccer World Cup coming up, that will be interesting. 

Theo Von Nails It

It was never Republicans vs Democrats, it was the war machine vs everyone:

What's Going On in Australia?

 Is a full fuel lockdown coming?

National Want to Lose the Election in 2026

The cockwomble National government of New Zealand, led by Christopher Luxon, a man who looks like a timeshare salesman from the 1990s, seems to have given up. No doubt they're all brushing up their CVs as they've now dropped to 26% in the latest poll. For any government, that's catastrophic. 

Luxon has dropped to 17% as the preferred prime minister. Coalition partner Winston Peters, may soon pass him. Luxon is a man who can never find his spine.

The fuel crisis has exposed National's Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, who can only say she understands the issues, will talk to all stakeholders, have reports done, and reports on those reports, but who never actually does anything. She's a classic duck-shoving middle manager. 

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10181-nz-national-voting-intention-march-2026

Reaction to Trump's Speech

 A quality rant this:

Update: Strait of Hormuz

The amount of oil and gas being carried through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, from an average of over a hundred tankers daily during February, down to an average of six tankers daily in March. However, there is a trend of some tankers running the strait by sticking close to the Omani shore, while others are paying the toll to Iran and going through the toll gate they've set up between Larak Island and Qeshm Island (not a literal toll gate, but a passage through which ships must travel).

Russian oil is back in the mix, too, and Southeast Asian refineries appear to be using this oil as additional feedstock.

What may happen is that the world gets to a point where the price of fuel is simply high all the time, with a new normal being that Iran has control of a huge chunk of global supply. 

Countries like Australia and New Zealand will have to suck this up, for now, but then move swiftly to self-sufficiency, as they both have the resources. They both lack the ability to process these resources, and so they must move to fully industrialise.

Australia's Military Compromised

I wondered how long it would take for the penny to drop. Without fuel, Australia won't be able to defend itself.

Reaction to Trump's Speech

Interesting initial reaction, I'll check over the next few hours whether the markets react positively or negatively.

Trump Addresses the Nation

I watched it live, but I have to confess I'm none the wiser. President Trump said what he'd already posted on social media, and left a lot up in the air. What, exactly, was that all about? 

Australia Allows Heavier Loads

It makes sense to allow trucks to carry more each load, it will save fuel, although roads will get knocked about more.

Australia Fuel Crisis, Food Shortages Loom?

With 25 million mouths to feed, how will Australia feed its people affordably if the diesel and fertiliser costs soar?

Australia and New Zealand Get Roasted

Deserved shellacking this:

For New Zealand, a whole series of decisions amounted to sabotage.

Fuel Crisis Needs Urgent Action

Both Australia's and New Zealand's governments refuse to take action. It is as if they want the countries to fail.

Can you ride a horse? I can.

Australia to Underwrite Extra Fuel Imports

Getting the idea New Zealand? Do something. 

No idea if this measure will help, but at least it's an attempt.

Australia's Fuel Crisis Is Real

Australia and New Zealand are so cooked. The people running things are morons on an epic scale. 

US Defeat?

The suggestion is that the US has used up its ordnance, especially its anti-missile defenses. That explains the sudden shift, from 'unconditional surrender' to now asking for diplomacy. Iran, for its part, seems to have more missiles and drones still. The drones are simple and cheap to make, and being made of balsa wood are very hard to detect with radar. 

Israel is vulnerable. They are small and present an easy target. Iran is not so vulnerable as they present a much larger target. I note that Iran's order of aerial attack is quite clever; to begin with they fired drones without warheads. Nevertheless, they had to be taken down at great expense. Then, gradually Iran ramped up, adding warheads to their drones, then increasing the size of warheads fired by missile. Thus, as Israel's defenses depleted, the weight delivered by Iran grew exponentially.

The uprising within Iran did not eventuate. There appears no groundswell of support for a revolution. 

The risk now is that the Persian Gulf may end up being Iran's lake. I read somewhere that the leaders of Kuwait and Bahrain have left their small principalities, with no immediate intention to return. It looks as if they know Iran has emerged the winner.

46 Days Left

New Zealand has 46 days of diesel left and has not taken the oil crisis seriously enough - yet. Meanwhile, the Philippines has declared a state of emergency with 45 days left.

Collapse of Australia Looms

Founder and CEO of Clime Investment Management, John Abernethy, explains where Australia is headed, given the course they're on. You might as well add New Zealand to the list, everything he says applies to that country as well.

How Some Countries Are Responding

Some countries are taking action, while others like New Zealand and Australia, have their heads in the sand:

Energy Lockdowns Coming?

This will be bigger than 2020. We are swiftly heading into energy lockdowns, as promoted by the likes of the WEF.

One possibility is they'll corral people into sectors. Initially, they'll call this a temporary measure to minimise fuel use. But, it'll become compulsory, and to access services your digital ID will be required.

Market Manipulation?

It does have the appearance of market manipulation. Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline, and the markets fell significantly. Then, with the deadline looming, he came up with a potential deal, and the markets rose significantly. Anyone who knew of these announcements could have made a fortune. What do you think?

Size Comparison: Iran vs Europe

People wondering why it is very hard to subjugate Iran need to consider its size. Iran is quite large and mountainous. No doubt they've dispersed their ordnance. It'd be almost impossible to find it, and their missiles and drones are launched from mobile units.

Iran v Europe

Asian Countries Introduce Fuel Restrictions

Here's a quick outline of what some Asian countries are doing to ration fuel. 

New Zealand Fuel Crisis - Action Required NOW

Here's my plan for sorting this:

1. Emergency declared under existing legislation, wartime economy. Government puts the entire liquid fuels infrastructure under direct government control.

2. Get the University of Canterbury and University of Auckland mechanical and chemical engineers on board, together with the NZ Army engineers (Sappers);

3. They've got 60 days to come up with a distillation solution producing enough diesel to keep the wheels and machinery moving;

4. The government enters the spot market for diesel, anywhere, any quality;

5. Get all farmers and transport operators to disable or remove their emissions systems, and get ready to run regular high sulphur fuel;

6. Bring the fuel in through existing shore facilities, price controlled and distributed according to direct state orders;

7. Arrest anyone who gets in the way, and prosecute any price gouging.

8. In the medium term, once this framework is established within 48 hours, begin feasibility studies on immediate production of biodisesel and lignite to diesel;

9. With immediate effect, ban the export of NZ crude oil and LPG;

10. Import LPG conversion kits for cars and vans.

11. With all this underway and framework stabilised, then worry about fertiliser (this prioritises tractors, machinery and trucks over chemicals in the ground - it is what it is).

Now, get on with it. Why is the government not taking action? Reports are that even if the conflict is resolved tomorrow, it will take 6 months to get the flow normal again. But, the likelihood is this conflict will be all year at least. We must act NOW.

Lignite to Diesel - NZ's Shelved Project

New Zealand should start making lignite to diesel and urea (fertilizer). The feasibility studies have been done, and the resource exists in limitless quantities. 

The following report is available on a NZ government department website. Make it happen NZ.

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/8fb7b2c240/liquid-fuels-from-lignite.pdf

Internationally, the demand for crude oil is increasing, at a time when many experts are predicting that the peak in oil production will occur sometime over the next 20 years. This combined with concerns about the security of oil supply, particularly with the current political instability in several oil producing regions, means that the price of oil has the potential to rise to unprecedented levels over the next two decades. New Zealand depends on imported oil for 99% [MED 2006] of its transportation fuels. If the cost of crude oil rises as predicted and the possibility of serious supply interruptions becomes more pressing, then alternatives need to be sought now to avoid serious transportation fuel shortages in the future. 

Who to Blame?

I always say that given long enough to think about it, the US, all of Europe and Israel will come to the conclusion that it is China's fault. Convince me I'm wrong.

WWIII Now Probable

It looks like WWIII is about to start. Military strikes on Iran's oil and gas facilities may force China and India to join the conflict on the side of Iran. They need to do this, especially India, as they're already experiencing shortages and India, in particular, has a large population that needs gas to cook their food with.

Russia and North Korea could then follow. South Korea are now in dire peril. North Korean artillery can easily bombard Seoul, the capital of South Korea. I don't see how South Korea could hold out.

With China and India involved, they'll be able to get their supplies out of the Gulf, and they'd take effective control of all oil and gas coming out of the Gulf. 

Targeting oil and gas complexes is a massive escalation and an act of utter stupidity.

Australia's Fuel Crisis

Australia are looking at rationing food as their supply of diesel starts to dry up.

What Now for Iran?

It appears Iran is settling in for a long war of attrition. Their drone and missile strikes have fallen away, but they're still continuing, albeit at a lower tempo. What I think they're now doing is setting out to cause enough disruption to effectively destroy the Gulf states, and humble Israel.

The Strait of Hormuz appears to be operating like a toll road. Iran are allowing through only those they approve of. Then, they have overland routes from China and Russia for resupplying its arms industry.

No uprising occurred amongst the people of Iran. This looks to have been a minority protesting, such as students, with no widespread support. That's disappointing and there appears no viable strategy for going in on the ground. 

Another angle relates to Iraq. Various militias aligned with Iran may now rise up. Thus, the US and Israel may have made a rod for their own backs.

All said, oil prices are likely to stay high for the foreseeable future.

Netanyahu's Disappearing Ring

OK, something is definitely up with Netanyahu:

Where is Netanyahu?

I've been ignoring the whole Netanyahu is dead or injured thing, but this video got my attention. I'm prepared to now accept that something is off when it comes to the leader of Israel. Proof of life is required.

Tax-Free Downunder

Here's an idea, New Zealand should move to mop up all the money that will be fleeing the United Arab Emirates right now. All those seeking the tax-free life, don't like receiving messages on their phone telling them their friendly neighbourhood missile will be arriving shortly.

A few years ago I suggested NZ set up a tax-free zone in the East Cape. Let's do this now. For people from overseas, we could take part of the coast and designate it tax-free so long as they stay resident for 120+ days of the year (or something). 

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/07/make-east-cape-monaco.html

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2018/06/making-east-cape-monaco.html

Australia on Edge of Cliff

 Australia is in a bad position at the onset of the oil crisis.

Ground Troops to the Middle East?

Oh no, going in on the ground in Iran? Iran is mountainous and contains 90 million people. This won't end well. And Afghanistan will be itching to get involved.

Make Your Own Diesel

This video shows how an American bloke has his diesel engine running on any oil, check it out. I'm placing this here to motivate my fellow Kiwis to get in touch with their elected representatives, insisting they stop messing about, and treat the current fuel situation as the real crisis that it is.

Here's how the government can do this:

1. Get the mechanical and chemical engineering departments of New Zealand universities together to sort out what works best, quickest, ignoring environmental, health and safety, just how to get enough diesel to power emergency response, trains, ferries, farms, hospitals and key transport and agriculture;
2. Mobilise the NZ Army engineers;
3. Using existing emergency legislation, grab all those elements needed to feed NZ's own set-up; 
4. Cease exporting oil in the immediate sense.
5. As a side project look at all wood waste and how much of it can be quickly turned to ethanol;
6. Treat LPG as like 4 and 5 above;
7. Then roll this out; what is created is a system of liquid fuels which can all run engines of differing types whether it be fuel oil, diesel, petrol etc.,
8. You've got 60 days.

Oil Crisis

Iran has clearly prepared for this and are setting about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. They're being successful at it, and are now attacking tankers and oil transfer facilities in the region.

For Australia and New Zealand, this is becoming an existential crisis. Already, farms in remote rural locations in Australia are finding they cannot obtain diesel. Hardware stores have sold out of jerry cans as people stock up. 

New Zealand is steadfastly blundering onward, their heads firmly in the sand. The country's leaders are woefully incompetent, it's like leaving a bunch of ten year-olds in charge. Here are some things to think about, diesel is essential to the nation, thus:

• Fuel oil is required for ships and all of NZ's fuel oil comes out of the Persian Gulf. If fuel oil runs out, there will be no Cook Strait ferries running, and no coastal shipping either. Forget imports and exports, as ships will not visit if they cannot fill up when they arrive.
• People will die as hospital back-up generators will have no fuel to run.
• Trains will not run, apart from electric commuter rail (the main trunk line in the North Island is partly electric).
• Farms will stop working.
• Mines will stop working and so no coal as a substitute.
• No trucks delivering goods to supermarkets.
• No factories processing food as parts of all operations require something diesel powered - we all start to starve in a country containing enough food to feed 50 million people. Crops will rot in the field.
• Natural disasters, how are we going to clear roads blocked by landslips?

Can you ride a horse? I can, but I guess they'll be in strong demand, so will be hard to find.

What is worse is that NZ does have oil, gas and coal, but it threw its refining capacity away - literally. EV's are not the answer either as the Gulf is the source of 90%+ of the industrial supplies of sulphur required to produce batteries - oh dear - rainbow hugs and moonbeams won't do it.

Instead of talking about it, get on with powering up some ability to produce diesel, bio-diesel, anything. 

Coal to the Rescue

As a result of the disruption to LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf, Asia, in particular, is moving to energy security through coal.

Coal is the giant on the block, and always has been.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal/news/531727

Coal prices climbed above $140 per ton, hitting their highest levels since November 2024 as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and resulting disruptions significantly heightened global energy supply risks.

Oil also surged above $100 for the first time since 2022 after major Middle Eastern producers curtailed output as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut.

In addition, the shutdown of Qatar’s massive liquefied natural gas production has boosted demand for fuel switching in the power sector.

Australia and New Zealand Fertiliser and Hormuz

New Zealand and Australia rely on fertiliser coming out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict goes on much longer, their respective economies will be severely impacted.

Australia Joins War

Is this a wise move? China obtains most of its imported crude from Iran, while Australia relies on China to buy its output from its mines. Won't this aggressive act by Australia result in backlash from China?

Message - Don't Panic

Here's a rational explanation as to why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is NOT an apocalyptic crisis. Although I'd add that some regions will be far more seriously impacted than others. The Far East, South-east Asia and Oceania being top of that list. China has stopped exporting fuels, which further restricts supply to the region.

Fuel Oil Supply Strangled

Something I overlooked is that fuel oil supplies for ships are being affected by the war in the Persian Gulf. The Middle East is a major supplier of the fuel oil required for ships, and Singapore is a major refueling point which imports its fuel oil from the Middle East. Fuel oil prices have therefore surged 30-40%, and supplies will run out toward the end of March.

The cost of goods will rise worldwide as shipping costs adjust upward, and some countries that rely on exports for their income may simply be unable to ship to their customers. Likewise, energy imports will be choked off.

Australia and New Zealand are two countries impacted, and the rest of the Far East as well.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/HSFO-Prices-Jump-40-as-War-Chokes-Key-Singapore-Bunkering-Hub.html

The price of fuel oil has surged this week as the stalled tanker traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is tightening supplies of the fuel in Asia, the key bunkering hub for fuel oil used in ships. 

The Middle East is a major global supplier of fuel oil, especially of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO). But the Iran war has all but halted traffic via the Strait of Hormuz, stranding supplies for Asia and its key bunkering hub of Singapore. 

As a result, prices have soared and are set to continue rising, traders and analysts told Reuters on Friday.  

Strait of Hormuz

Commentators predicting an oil crisis following Iran's closing of the Strait of Hormuz are well wide of the mark. That is because Saudi Aramco has started shipping more oil out of its Red Sea facilities (see link). Furthermore, Egypt is offering its pipeline to move Saudi oil to the Med.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/egypt-offers-sumed-pipeline-to-facilitate-saudi-oil-exports-amid-hormuz-closure/

I've also seen predictions that some of the people in the Gulf states will starve. But anyone looking at a map will see that there is a land corridor to these states, and so food can get in to feed stranded tourists. The same land corridor could be used to evacuate people from Dubai, Doha and the like. Buses are starting to look mighty useful.

However, there are some serious issues regarding the viability of the United Arab Emirates long term. Dubai as an airport hub could be lost. Ethiopia has been promoting Addis Ababa as a useful mid-point stopover, and they've commenced building a new international airport there. 

Dubai's status as a tax haven sanctuary may be over, too. The rich don't like adding bombs to the risk assessment. It'll also be interesting to see how the large sovereign wealth funds based in the Persian Gulf fare now that their economies are toast. This will massively impact the United Kingdom. Interesting times ahead indeed.

Iran appears to have lost its navy and air force, and this war will end when it runs out of ordnance. I give it another three weeks at this rate. Will China and Russia come to their aid? I doubt it, as Russia has its own issues, plus it'll be selling more oil right now. China tends to be all talk; they've never won a war, and if they enter the fray, they too will lose their entire navy.

South Korea, Japan, South-East Asia and Oceania may experience the rapid onset of an energy crisis, and in Australia and New Zealand, there seems to be little urgency. The latter two really do have useless leaders. 

How Much in the Tank?

Australia has less than a month of fuel in reserve. Watch as it implodes as the conflict in the Middle East worsens. I made only one prediction for this year and that was - Australia will collapse in 2026.

Fuel Prices Set to Spike

The utter stupidity of the New Zealand government is now on full display as the price of fuel is set to rise following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

New Zealand has its own oil, but no ability to refine it. That's because the NZ government allowed its one refinery to close down. 

Get working now you cockwomble NZ government. Get that refinery up and running again, pronto.

US Strikes Iran

The Winter Olympics have wrapped up, the US carriers are in place; time to end the Iranian regime. I hope this can be a swift victory and that Iran can go back to being a civilised country.

 

 Goldie Ghamari has started a live feed

Green Breakthrough UK

There appears to be a major political shift taking place in the United Kingdom. The Green Party has won the byelection in the Gorton and Denton electorate, a traditional Labour seat. What's more, Reform UK came second. Labour came a distance third, while the Conservatives didn't even get their deposit back.

Polling across the country has reflected this shift, with the Green Party rising and Reform UK polling the highest. This is different to the 1980's when the newly formed SDP came close to replacing Labour. Now, there are several challenges to Labour's supremacy and the Conservatives are also under pressure from Nigel Farage's Reform, and Rupert Lowe's recently established Restore.

It is about time we saw the old corrupt hegemony deposed. May this trend be repeated worldwide. I realise this comes with risk - be careful what you wish for - but since tyranny has taken hold, we need swift and sweeping change to at least punish those who tried to cancel our freedoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/27/green-party-wins-gorton-and-denton-byelection-in-blow-to-keir-starmer

The Green party has pulled off a landmark victory in the Gorton and Denton byelection in a significant blow to Keir Starmer.

Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green party councillor, was elected as the party’s first MP in northern England after overturning Labour’s 13,000-vote majority.

Labour came third in the tightly contested race, 5,616 votes behind the Greens on 14,980 votes, while Reform UK finished second with 10,578 votes. The result represents a 25.3% drop in Labour’s vote compared to 2024.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats lost their deposits as they won fewer than 5% of the votes, with both under 2%.

Cash Is King, Says Reserve Bank of New Zealand

New Zealand's Reserve Bank has issued a statement pointing out how important cash is to the economy. They are commencing moves that require banks to make cash available, quickly and easily. 

Cash is of paramount importance. NZ is regularly impacted by natural disasters and the power can be out. Cash is all that works in such times, forget credit cards. 

Remote rural communities, these days, often have no cash withdrawal or deposit machines, leading to long drives to major towns and cities to do just a little banking. This works as a major handbrake on the country as a whole. 

Credit where credit is due, it appears the Reserve Bank has listened to voices shouting loud and clear; cash is critical, we must keep cash. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/587887/banks-must-provide-cash-services-to-customers-reserve-bank-says

RBNZ director of money and cash Ian Woolford said providing and handling cash should be a basic banking service.

"We believe banks must provide cash services to customers, free-of-charge, because cash is an essential part of a customer's relationship with their bank."

He said banks had been reducing the places where customers could get cash, bank cash or get change, especially in rural areas, with about 40 percent of bank branches closed over the past decade.

"We want this to change, and we are open as to how," Woolford said.

"Cash benefits society, as it is used for economic, social and cultural reasons, and as the steward of cash we are focused on ensuring the cash system is healthy and available."

MSM Dead

Anyone wondering why exactly the mainstream media is effectively dead needs to watch this video. They're a bunch of liars, and people are sick of it. 

Prince of Darkness Arrested

The dominoes are starting to fall, but I get the feeling they're only arresting people now as a form of damage control and not due to some high-minded reason, like seeking justice and accountability. Had the Epstein Files not been released, then I don't believe anyone would have been arrested. There is a lot more to come out yet, I'm sure. What has been released in the US is only a small proportion of what they have, and they appear to be redacting the files to protect suspects, not victims.

Royal Lodge Search

Police searching Royal Lodge, the home of Andrew for the last 20 years, seem to be concentrating on a building next to the main house. I wonder what is of interest in there?

What's Up Between FIFA and Trump?

At last someone has called this out. FIFA is meant to be about sport, and sport is meant to be above politics - right? 

Well, no, it appears FIFA has crossed the line. It's about time another organisation took over world soccer - or association football for all you nerds who insist on the correct name.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2026/02/20/donald-trump-and-gianni-infantino-are-ruining-fifa-and-football/

In recent years Gianni Infantino, the most senior official at the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), and Donald Trump have been hogging international sporting, and political headlines.

The latest came on Thursday 19 February when FIFA announced an initiative to assist Mr  Trump’s Board of Peace rebuild Gaza using sport. Mr Infantino’s declaration to “foster investment into football for the purpose of helping the recovery process in post conflict areas” was made at the Trump Peace HQ.

<snip>

Mr Trump’s ethically questionable control over world football seems mild in comparison with command of violent ICE agents or his takeover of Venezuela. But as always with Mr Trump, he has managed to gatecrash and despoil much of what he touches; in this case, the world’s beautiful game.      

The Andrew, Formerly Known As Prince, Arrested

About time, this has been like watching paint dry. Looking up the last time a royal was actually arrested, you've got to go back to Charles I, who lost his head. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c70kjr9wjw0t

Everything we know about Andrew's arrest so farpublished at 23:1

In the last few minutes we have learned that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has been arrested. Here are the key details.

• Thames Valley Police arrested Andrew, who turns 66 today, earlier this morning
• The former prince was arrested on suspicion of of misconduct in public office and he is in custody
• Police are searching addresses in Berkshire and Norfolk
• Thames Valley Police said he was arrested after a "thorough assessment", with an investigation now opened

OpenStar Nuclear Fusion

New Zealand nuclear fusion company, OpenStar Technologies, has reached a critical milestone, and the NZ Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, was there to push the big green button as the process was turned on in Wellington.

OpenStar could do a better job of explaining exactly what they're doing. Imagine we are all 10 years old. I say this because I'm left wondering what exactly this milestone was?

Wellington at Risk

New Zealand's capital city, Wellington, could be about to experience a serious depopulation event. That's because its ageing infrastructure is collapsing but its idiotic and immature council insist on prioritising cycleways over sewers. 

Currently, the main sewage processing facility is out of action, and this may go on for months. But, added to that is the underground pipes are old and giving away. Not only that, but the fresh water supply sees the streets leaking. This is a matter of urgent public health concern as sewage may get into the fresh water supply. If this gets much worse, I can see Wellington having to be evacuated, it is that bad. Birmingham type bad.

The government seems unable or unwilling to do anything about it. The New Zealand prime minister, Christopher Luxon, should sack the Wellington City Council and put in commissioners to run the city. In the last 16 years across NZ, this has occurred three times, but this disfunction in Wellington is by far the worst NZ has seen in 40 years - but nothing is done. Luxon is a craven middle manager, scared of his own shadow. He's indecisive and weak. 

Sack the Wellington City Council and put people in charge who actually know how to get things done. 

How Much Do Chinese Know About the World?

Chinese people, when asked questions in the street, do not seem to know that much. They appear to be as bad as Americans, but with better humour. Rather strangely, they did know 9/11 was New York, but someone thought the capital of the US was Boston.

The person who thought China fought Vietnam in the Vietnam War was nearly right as China did invade Vietnam soon after the Vietnam War ended. But so many thinking India was in Africa was really unforgiveable. I laughed at how often England got a mention; their soft power is clearly still evident.

Climate Foolishness Out, Industry In

The Greens will be spewing, but the trend now is to rollback all the net-zero nonsense and get back to making stuff, and using clean, efficient energy derived from coal, natural gas, and nuclear. Add to that hydro and geothermal where possible. 

Something we are not going to able to do is power an industrial economy using solar and wind. That's because the energy from these sources is far too dispersed. These sources of energy are uneconomic.

Get with the programme, industrialise.

https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/13/us-president-trump-makes-most-aggressive-step-yet-to-roll-back-us-climate-rules

The Environmental Protection Agency or EPA's new rule cancels a 2009 "endangerment finding" which says that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare. The Obama-finding is the legal basis for most climate rules under the Clean Air Act covering emissions from cars, power plants and other sources that warm the planet. Court challenges are expected.

The repeal wipes out all greenhouse gas standards for cars and trucks and could open the door to rolling back on rules on power plants and oil and gas sites, according to experts.

Interesting Information

 A lot of people around Jeffrey Epstein ended up dead, how about this one, found at the bottom of a cliff - Al Seckel

Missing Minute Found

There are some clever people out there; the missing minute from the security footage from inside the prison housing Jeffrey Epstein has been restored from a pdf file. They took the pdf link from the Epstein Files and changed the suffix to .mp4. When played, the mp4 link shows the missing minute. A prison guard gets up from their desk and walks toward the staircase to Epstein's cell. Remember, we were told the guards were sleeping. Were they sleep walking?

Joe Rogan Sold Out?

Kyle Kulinski has an entertaining rant about how disappointing Joe Rogan has become.

Super Bowl LX

I watched maybe 45 minutes of Super Bowl LX, and was lucky to see many of the scoring plays. Basically, I'd never go out of my way to watch such stuff, but I was following the winter Olympics at the same time, so did change channels from time to time. 

This was some of the worst football of any football code I've seen. How can anyone watch such rubbish? This was worse than rugby union, which has gone down the same road of incentivising less play while trying to look good doing it. For examples of football sports that actually play foot-ball, try rugby league or soccer. With these, the ball is in play almost continuously.

The big problem with American football for me is players being allowed to throw the ball out. In all other football codes that's not allowed. In soccer, you throw the ball in from out of bounds, but throwing it out is hand ball and a penalty, likewise in rugby it is also a penalty. The game is foot-ball, you kick the ball with your foot, if you want the ball out, you must kick it out. 

For the first time I saw the kick-offs where no-one can move after the ball is kicked, which is counter-intuitive, and looks silly. The ball has been kicked, but everyone waits like a field of pansies. And the scoring team kicking off is also silly, they tried this in rugby league and it failed back in the 90's. There is talk of bringing back some version of this again, but it's a bad idea, the scoring team usually receives the kick off in other football codes. To explain the thinking behind this, it prevents the team scored against ending up perpetually trapped in their own half. It is counter to the spirit of the game and would be very boring to watch, which American football is actually, very boring.

Anyway, back to the Winter Olympics for me, where athletes actually compete and do not stand around comparing their tutus.