Australia's One Nation Victory

While we were all studying the astounding victories of Reform and the Greens in the UK, Australia was having its own moment, leaving the plantation and voting in its first One Nation member to the federal House of Representatives. One Nation, under the leadership of its mercurial leader, Pauline Hanson, these days polls highly, often in second place. They're fast displacing the right-of-centre Liberal Party.

Pauline Hanson is an interesting figure. Personally, I cannot stand her voice, so I rarely listen to her. But she has stuck at it, never giving up. Finally, off the back of her own decades-long efforts, the party she created is getting traction. They're now a real force. They could become the government of Australia.

https://newsreel.com.au/article/government/one-nation-surge-is-now-being-taken-seriously/

One Nation’s surge can no longer be seen as a blip or an aberration.

As the results in the Farrer byelection showed, the right-wing populist party – which has been hovering on the fringes of Australian politics for 30 years – is now a serious electoral force.

While the byelection was considered likely to be a close contest between One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe, in the end voters delivered an easy win to Farley. His is the first One Nation victory in a federal House of Representatives seat.

UK Greens Crush Labour

Left-wing activist, Owen Jones, covers the extent of the Greens victory in the local elections just held in the UK. 

Owen Jones is accurate but maybe he doesn't quite understand the full extent of what happened. Labour finds itself isolated, with nowhere to call home. They've been attacked from two ends. Take voters in the North, many of whom ordinarily vote Labour. They voted Reform en masse. Then down South, the trendy champagne socialists who compost their kitchen waste and protest against Israel on the weekends, voted Greens. The breadth of the defeat is what is transformational. The new parties, no doubt, will have their struggles, but they now have a platform from which to grow. 

New Rugby 2026

Many may be aware that rugby union has many challenges currently, notably the drop off in audience. The problem as I see it is that the game has become boring, with frequent and unnecessary stoppages in play, and referees becoming too involved in the game. These referees are manipulating the outcome of matches. The spectators and wider audience can see this and turn off.

Here are some ideas to turn things around.

1. Play the game as four quarters of 20 minutes each, with slowdowns and other unnecessary stoppages penalised.

2. Allow unlimited substitutions and players may return so long as they haven't been sent off for foul play. Substitutions could be made during any pause in play.

3. The game is 15 vs 15 at all times. No yellow or red card. Players sent from the field for foul play are immediately excluded for the rest of the game, but may be replaced from the reserves. Teams only drop to fewer than 15 players on the field when they run out of reserves.

4. Scrums have to be set within 90 seconds, and failure to set the scrum results in a free kick (currently, the time frame is 30 seconds from when the referee sets the mark, but the referee may also call time off. My rule has no time off, just 90 seconds, as players can be replaced and return later at any time anyway, meaning time off is not necessary). 

5. Lineouts only occur when the ball goes out in general play and must be performed within 90 seconds. The 50:22 rule is scrapped.

6. Penalty restarts may be via a tap restart, scrum, kick for goal, or the ball is kicked out on the full. If the ball is kicked out on the full, then, as with rugby league, a tap kick restarts the game for the attacking team from where the ball went out (no lineouts off penalty kicks).

7. Phases of play cannot go beyond twelve consecutive rucks or mauls. On the twelfth phase the attacking team must do something with the ball or hand over possession.

8. Scoring; 5 points for a try, 1 point for a conversion, 2 points for a penalty kick or drop goal. The idea being it takes four kicks to better a converted try (currently, only three goals are worth more than a converted try). Conversions and penalty kicks must be taken within 90 seconds of the ball being placed.

9. Kicks from the 22 are replaced with a tap kick from the 22. Goal line drop-outs remain.

10. Kick-offs at the start and at half time are place kicks, not drop kicks (but cannot score points if the ball goes through the goal). Quarter time restarts occur at the place where play ceased, and restart via scrum, lineout, or tap kick.

11. Introduce synthetic turf. Modern synthetic turf is hard wearing and equalises teams, meaning home advantage isn't so pronounced. Modern turf is padded and cushions players from hard landings and friction burns are minimised by lightly spraying with water prior to games (mist rather than solid wetting). All the old criticisms of 'AstroTurf ' no longer apply.

12. Two referees should be used at the elite level, one leading, one trailing. No video referees, touch judges as now, immediate decisions.

13. Bonus point scrapped and 3 for the win, 1 for a draw after 10 minutes of extra time. If any team scores a try during extra time they win the game immediately, no further play. However, if either team kicks only a goal of any kind then play continues, giving the other side a chance to win the game with a try, or to kick for a draw. During extra time, any try trumps all kicks, so even if a team has three goals (6 points), one five point try results in victory. 

14. In knock-out playoffs; if the match remains a draw after extra time, then another 10 minutes is played with the first team to make any score being the victor.

My thinking here is to maximise spectator investment. They pay to see a contest, not see the game ruined by referees sending players off, or teams playing negatively to eke out a win. 

Reform UK and Greens Tsunami

A tidal wave has swept over the UK, with Reform and the Greens being the big winners. Reform gained control of 14 councils and had more than 1,400 councillors elected. The Greens now control five councils and they won two mayoral races. Both, prior to this election, were practically nowhere. Now, they'll both be part of the news cycle at the national and local level. 

I hope this kind of change will lead to something positive, such as rebuilding and replacing what is a broken country. The roads are rubbish, everything is falling apart, get on and reinstate services, get the job done. Then, when Labour are swept from office at the national level, get on and take control of the whole country. 

This sort of change is what is required Downunder in Australia and New Zealand. Both countries are mired in old thinking, with the right and left of both countries beholden to corporate interests. Hopefully, people will see what's happening in the UK and react. There are firm links with 'back home' and this message can get through.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2026/england/results

Election Storm in the UK

Nigel Farage's party, Reform UK, has pulled off a series of stunning victories in the recent local elections held in England, Scotland and Wales. The two big losers are the Conservatives and Labour. The Greens are on the rise, and the Liberal Democrats improved. The electoral landscape is now multi-polar, and the old left-right divide has been swept aside. 

For Reform and the Greens, they now have a firm launch pad for any General Election. 

Watch for panic from Labour. Their ineffective and rather loathsome leader, Keir Starmer, will be permanently looking over his shoulder from now on. 

Nigel Farage has proven to be very resilient.

The Kids Can't Read

This is America, but the English-speaking world is experiencing widespread illiteracy. The Latin world is fine; they still read. But we need to get children reading, and we need to worry less about feelings. Just read, anything.

Smuggling Diesel from Iran to Pakistan

The Iranians and Pakistanis are very resourceful and seem to love their Toyotas as much as Kiwi farmers do. As everyone must know by now, you cannot destroy a Toyota pickup truck.

More May Follow Spirit Airlines

Following the bankruptcy and immediate shutdown of Spirit Airlines in the US, Gary Leff has published the risk related to other US airlines that could follow. It is astonishing to see American Airlines on the list as they're one of the world's biggest airlines, with over 1,000 Airbus and Boeing aircraft.

https://viewfromthewing.com/more-airline-bankruptcies-may-be-coming-jetblue-and-frontier-face-the-highest-risk/

• JetBlue: greater than 75%
  
• Frontier: 45% – 50%
  
• Allegiant: 36.7%
  
• American: 2.9% – 15%
  
• Alaska: Less than 3%

Who Is Winning the US-Iran War?

A quick scorecard, winners and losers:

Winners

Iran - their oil revenues have increased since the outbreak of the war. According to the Wall Street Journal, they're now selling 985,000 barrels of oil per day to China via the rail corridor that runs through the Stans between Iran and China. The marshalling yards for this traffic sit within Turkmenistan, and that's where loads are taken off standard gauge and placed upon the old Soviet wide gauge track. The trains are about 50 wagons long, 66 tons each wagon, and each oil tank holds about 400-500 barrels. Iran charge China's 'teapot' refiners Brent + $1.50. This compares with volumes of about 1.38m bpd via the Strait of Hormuz before the war. Thus, Iran in revenue terms is raking in about the equivalent of 1.5m bpd levels from before the war. They knew they were going to be attacked. Leading up they were shipping a lot of crude and simply parking it out there on the water. The US then lifted sanctions on this oil and Iran profited. They must have laughed. Iran also has rail links with Russia, Pakistan, and via the Caspian Sea and into Russia's Volga-Don canal system and ultimately the Black Sea. Iran now has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, and it remains shut to those it considers its enemies. 

Israel - they are now the US's only remaining ally in the region. They would have noticed the rise of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and in particular, Saudi Arabia. These states have been selling their soft power, with Saudi Arabia using sports promotions like LIV Golf to sell themselves. Israel won't have been happy with this overall, and now they can sit back and watch these states distance themselves from the US.

Russia - they're happy with the high oil prices. They've shut down the pipeline from Kazakhstan to Germany, likely motivated by the incentive of lifting prices.

Losers

USA - their attack has resulted in a massive strategic defeat. They've compromised food security and the world economy generally. American farmers will be livid as the attack on Iran came just before planting - not good timing.

Gulf States - they were mistaken in thinking the US could protect them. Dubai may come back to an extent, but people will never forget, and zero tax doesn't help one bit when a bomb may land on your bonce.

Asia (apart from China) - all Asian countries have been compromised and they'll likely move toward greater independence and away from the US.

China - they'd prefer the Strait of Hormuz to open, for conflict to end. They won't be greatly adversely affected but given their merchant outlook, they'd profit from less conflict, not more.

Oceania - they stand to go out of existence if they don't quickly get their act together. 

Africa - famine is possible, and their oil fields and refineries are only just now being built. This war came at a bad time for them.

Europe - deindustrialisation has proven to be a fool's errand. They're badly exposed with high cost structures and with few allies.

North, South and Central America (apart from the US) - they've been compromised, but countries like Canada have gained from their own oil sales to Asia. The picture is patchy, but overall a loss.

The war has benefited very few interests, and harmed most. End the war now.

US Imposes 25% Tariffs on EU Cars and Trucks

If this kind of random imposition of tariffs continues, European manufacturers may simply decide to pack up and leave the US. It'd be a sensible move as they could write off the cost and avoid tax in their own countries.

Reliance on Fossil Fuels

Big Green capital interests will tell you fossil fuels have had their day, that solar, wind and tides will replace them as a source of energy.

What are the facts? Fossil fuels play a greater part in daily lives now than at any stage previously. Production is increasing with new oil and gas fields coming onstream, and new coal mines being opened up. 

With the Strait of Hormuz currently blockaded, with the US also blockading the blockade, this has resulted in a crisis of truly global proportions. And no amount of wind and solar can address the problem. That's because the world population has doubled over the last 50 years, and they require food. Farmers need urea fertiliser to grow crops efficiently, and that's fossil fuels. Those calling for a move away from fossil fuels are actually calling for depopulation. They prefer to talk about the environment, but opponents of fossil fuels are really against humanity.

See the graph below, fossil fuel consumption has increased eight-fold since 1950. This trend cannot and will not be reversed. 

Fossil Fuel Consumption

How a Ballerina Looks After Her Feet

Ever wondered how a ballerina looks after her feet? This video shows the amount of care one dancer gives them. Her dedication is commendable.

Oil Scarcity

Some appear to be getting it, finally. With the current oil crisis, we are not talking pricing, we are talking about the complete lack of something. 

World Weeks Away From Major Crisis

Is oil moving? No. The politicians do not seem to realise that in situations such as this, where there is a complete lack of something, markets don't really work. Nothing is still nothing. 

Look at it like this; if you're dying of thirst in the desert, what the futures market is saying about what a glass of water is worth will do nothing of real value, you will still die of thirst as you have no water.

UAE Leaving OPEC

Apart from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the next biggest thing to happen as a result of the US-Iran war is the sudden announcement of the United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC.

When the Strait opens up again, and the oil is flowing freely, this move will have two effects; the first being to lower oil prices as the UAE will start pumping oil well beyond its current OPEC quota limits. They'll do this to help pay for damage caused by the war. A consequential effect may then be to challenge the viability of two industries, fracking and electric vehicles. The latter will only happen if the price of oil comes down by a lot, which it can do, but it is a wait and see.

Right now though, with the Strait still closed, we have an immediate supply crisis, that remains unchanged.

Looming Food Crisis

Make no mistake, this is serious.

But rejoice, the New Zealand government has secured nine days of diesel. Yeah, they really think that will make a difference. 

The World as a Globe, Not Flat Map

Have you ever looked at the planet from the perspective of the globe, rather than a flat map? As you may be aware, depending on the way a flat map is presented, we get a skewed presentation. It can be useful to see things as you'd see them from space.

Here's a link to exactly that, a 3D interactive globe: https://earth3dmap.com/3d-globe/

I often say that Western Australia and New Zealand should merge as they're the only sane people in the Southern Hemisphere. Looking at this map, a journey by sea from Bluff, NZ is almost a straight run to Perth, Western Australia. 

Action Required Now, Don't Wait

It is obvious the conflict in the Persian Gulf is not going to end anytime soon. Even if it does end today, oil flows will be down for the next year or two. That's because oil shore facilities have been damaged and will take time to repair, thus, the volume of oil that can be loaded will be well down. Additionally, oil storage facilities are nearing capacity and when these are maxed out, oil wells will start shutting down. Starting things up again is always a problem, often taking months, even years.

Both Australia and New Zealand need to take action now. Start building capacity of its own. Australia can build more refineries, and NZ should begin its stalled lignite to diesel project in Southland. Additionally, both should be looking to contract alternative supplies. Australia could try buying output from Uganda through the Tanzanian port of Tanga. This oil will become available later this year. New Zealand should see if it can buy finished fuels from the new giant Dangote refinery in Nigeria. Whatever options are available, both countries should be working at fever pitch, night and day to solve the problem.

What's particularly weird is that NZ still exports its high grade, light and sweet crude, while its own diesel tanks are about to run out. NZ has no plans underway to distill this easily processed crude into diesel. The NZ government is that stupid.

Both Australia and New Zealand are like possums caught in the headlights, they appear bereft of ideas.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/3/4/producers-face-storage-crunch-as-hormuz-shutdown-traps-middle-east-crude/#:~:text=In%20theory,%20the%20Arab%20producers,be%20extended%20by%20a%20week.

“If oil producers reach ‘tank tops’ for lack of export outlets, then they have to curtail output,” Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst of geospatial analytics company Kayrros, said in a post on LinkedIn.

Trump to Hand Falklands to Milei?

Upset that the United Kingdom has not joined the US war with Iran, it is being reported that Donald Trump may withdraw his support for the UK holding the Falkland Islands, effectively handing the islands to Argentina. Readers may remember that back in the early 1980's, Argentina invaded the Falklands and the UK went to war over it, and won the islands back. 

A bit of history; the Falklands are part of Britain, and Argentina has no rightful claim over the islands. The islands have also played a pivotal role in the Royal Navy's control of the South Atlantic. The British Empire, at one point, controlled all of the main pinch points, the North and South Atlantic, the Mediterranean via Gibraltar, Malta and Cyprus, the Strait of Malacca at Singapore, Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden and access to the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, Cape of Good Hope, and the Tasman Sea through to the Southern Ocean. There was nowhere for an enemy to go, literally nowhere. 

So, the British have some serious soul searching to do. Are they going to grow a spine or shrink to nothingness?

Emergency Planning for New Zealand

Forget raindrops, diesel is running low. New Zealand has 21 days onshore, in tanks, right now. Three weeks and if any of the ships inbound don't arrive, the country runs out and the economy fails.

I looked things up and found the country can survive, kind of. NZ has about 100 steam locomotives, 20 of which are in regular use and ready to go. These operate on heritage lines and do tourist excursions. They may have to go back to work. Likewise, traction engine operators may be called upon.

The central section of the North Island main trunk railway line is electrified, thanks to Rob Muldoon's Think Big scheme, and another Think Big was NZ's conversion of LPG to urea fertiliser, which supplies a third of urea required by farmers. 

So, NZ will not come to a complete standstill, and farms will still be able to operate, but farmers may need to get back on the horse. Coal is still plentiful, it may come in handy.

NZ has a lot of wood waste, and this can be converted to biodiesel. However, the problem with biodiesel is it has a higher freezing point, so cannot be used in colder areas; think central North Island and the South Island's alpine areas and Otago and Southland. 

When food arrives in cities, electric vehicles will be needed to pick goods up and move them to warehouses and shops. Some electric buses could have their seats removed and be used as vans.

Given how stretched things will be, the country will need to work 24/7. To move around within cities, people will have to ride bicycles and electric vehicles. Many buses are now electric and they will still be working. However, as diesel vehicles are needed to maintain the electrical infrastructure, there will be more frequent outages, and people will die as back-up generators in hospitals will have nothing in the tank, or only 3 hours with refueling delayed beyond that. Fire engines may be unavailable if the country runs out of diesel. There are countless ways NZ will be adversely affected by the loss of diesel, these are just a few examples.

NZ needs to start taking this seriously. I have a plan and this should have been done already: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Update: The NZ government is incompetent. To think they're the party of the farmers! And yet they've kicked farmers in the teeth. Will farmers realise they're in an abusive relationship, or will they, as always, go back to their abuser, believing this time will be different?

Update: Reuters is reporting that Russia, from the 1st of May, is going to stop the transfer of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via a pipeline that runs through their territory. This will put more pressure on existing fuel supplies as Germany looks to replace this lost supply with other sources of crude being imported by ship. NZ is at the end of the supply chain and has no leverage due to the small quantities required, thus, it is likely to be further squeezed. The NZ government appears oblivious.

Steve Keen Explains Just How Much of a Problem the World Has

This is a must watch. The world will experience a global famine if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened up.

Luxon Destroying National and New Zealand

New Zealand's prime minister, the man who looks like a timeshare salesman from the 1990's, shiny suit, shaved head and all, has survived a confidence vote within his caucus. It was a vote called by himself. 

The bad news is diesel is still running out, but the good news is that if National go into the election in November with Luxon at the helm, they stand to be wiped out. That's because, with diesel now double the price of six weeks ago, the party of the farmer has kicked the farmer in the teeth. 

The farmers of NZ must soon realise that Luxon and his cohort represent the ruling corporate elites from overseas. They view NZ farmers as hayseeds, there to be exploited.

People may say I'm being too drastic, that National has always been around. Certainly, they've been around a long time, since 1936 in fact. They were formed out of the rubble of the rural Reform, and urban United parties. Labour had swept to its first election victory in 1935 and thus, effectively, gutted both Reform and United, as well as what remained of the once great Liberal party. Since 1936, National has been a kind of schizophrenic beast, with its urban and rural wings in constant turmoil. Now, the farmers can see just who is in charge, and it isn't them, that's for sure.

Back in 2020, there was almost an uprising with a group calling themselves Groundswell. But this was really only National supporters trying to defuse unrest. But, this time is different because in 2020 it was Labour in power, but now it is their own, National, who are the tyrants.

National deserves to be destroyed, and now that the piss-weak Luxon is hanging around longer, that outcome looks increasingly likely. 

  

Dangote Too Cheap

The World Bank is putting pressure on Nigeria to get Dangote to lift its prices, they're selling refined oil too cheap. You cannot make this up!

What About Crew Stuck in the Persian Gulf?

What has been happening to the crew stuck on ships caught in the Persian Gulf? I've been wondering if some crew may simply abandon ship, and then row to shore while leaving the vessel anchored.

Jet Fuel Running Out

The opening of the Strait of Hormuz didn't last long, and now we are looking at airlines shutting down or going out of business. This is not a pricing issue, it is an absolute scarcity of the key resource - kerosene. Only a small proportion of each barrel of oil turns into kerosene, otherwise known as jet fuel.

Iran Opens Strait, For Now

Good news, Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz so long as the ceasefire in Lebanon holds. Ships must still go through their tollgate though, which limits the speed with which ships can exit the Gulf. I checked on Marine Traffic's website and there isn't a flood of vessels underway, but expect this number to increase significantly. 

Now, Australia and NZ governments, don't sit back and claim credit for everything while doing precisely nothing. Now is the window of opportunity to come up with distillation solutions for your own oil. How long do you need just sitting around on your hands, you clowns!

Here's what to do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Massive Oil Downunder

The corrupt politicians will tell everyone there is no oil in Australia or New Zealand. Quite the contrary, both contain massive resources of oil that are almost diesel coming up out of the ground.

LIV Golf Could End Soon

Reports are coming in that the Saudi backed golf tour, LIV Golf, could have the plug pulled on it. It makes sense as Saudi Arabia has suffered a severe hit to its revenues. They can still ship oil out through their Red Sea port, but the capacity there is limited, so the double-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz must end soon.

Saudi Arabia spend a lot on sports in an attempt to soften their image worldwide. They invest in major soccer teams, boxing, motor sports, sailing, the list is endless. 

What will happen to the golfers now playing on the LIV tour? My guess is most of them will find a way back into the PGA. That's because the PGA really does need them for their talent. If they try to ban them, then that leaves a player pool wandering around the place who may form into another tour and, perhaps, outdo the PGA. It's an old quandary any business faces; don't leave assets out there that someone else may operate better.

Professional sport across the world is about to have a serious haircut if this conflict goes on much longer. That's because it isn't just Saudi Arabia sports washing, add the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain to the list as well. Take away that money and the value of many pro sports franchises starts to plummet.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/apr/16/liv-and-let-die-golf-rebels-count-cost-saudi-cutbacks

A slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s lavish spending on sport, which is conservatively estimated to have cost the kingdom more than $10bn in the past five years, had been expected, but its Public Investment Fund’s withdrawal of financial support for the rebel tour – which was first mooted to LIV execs on Monday – has caused shockwaves throughout the wider industry.

Significantly, the possibility of PIF’s withdrawal was not even addressed in an email sent by the LIV chief executive, Scott O’Neil, to his staff on Wednesday evening, which has left many of them more fearful for their jobs. Such concerns are not limited to golf, with other sports administrators fearful that similar cuts in Saudi’s budget could be coming their way.

Food Shortages Possible Australia

Things are getting really bad Downunder.

Refinery Fire in Australia

What are the chances of this randomly happening when it did? 

Blockade of a Blockade Restricts Supply

The United States has now put into effect its blockade of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; a blockade of a blockade. For any country importing its oil from the Persian Gulf, this makes things much worse. That's because, with Iran's single blockade, some oil did get through. Take China as an example, they obtain about 40% of their total energy imports from the Gulf. Now, that supply appears shut off, which forces China to start buying from other suppliers, driving up the price of oil generally, but also denying smaller nations like Australia and New Zealand. China's volume demand is so great, they could now soak up everything. 

What is astonishing to me is how lightly the Australian and New Zealand governments are taking this. They are like sheep being led into the abattoir. Immediate action is required - this is what the NZ government must do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Oil - Lots of It

What does a barrel of oil contain, what products are derived from it, and what are the different types of crude oil?

1. Types of Crude

2. Refining Process - Like Making Moonshine

 

3. Refining Output - Various Products

Why the Strait of Hormuz Is So Important to Australia and New Zealand

A bit of simple arithmetic is needed to explain why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz could destroy the economies of Australia and New Zealand.

Both countries rely on imported refined product from Asia. New Zealand is wholly dependent while Australia is about 90% dependent. China has ceased exporting product, so cross them off the list. That leaves, for the most part; South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia as suppliers.

South Korea processes up to 3.4m bpd (million barrels per day), 2.5m of which is consumed domestically. 70% of their supply comes from the Middle East.

Singapore processes about 1.5m bpd, and they import 70% of their oil from the Middle East.

Malaysia processes about 900,000 bpb, and they import about 40% of that oil from the Middle East as they have their own oil wells. Domestically, they consume about 77% of the total and export the rest.

I trust you may begin to see the problem. With a huge amount of Middle Eastern oil coming through the Strait, but now shut off, these Asian economies will need to prioritise their own market first, and even then they'll come up short.

South Korea has begun buying oil from Canada, about 800,000 barrels per day. That's well short of the 2.4m bpd needed. They can only just supply themselves, leaving nothing to export. 

Singapore looks set to lose 1.0m bpd, and that equates to the daily consumption of Australia. Forget NZ, they'll just be left to fail.

Malaysia, just to supply its own needs, will have to import from other sources, just as South Korea is doing.

All of this adds up to a very serious predicament Downunder. I see the Philippines has declared a state of emergency, and that is a wise thing to do. Australia and New Zealand need to follow suit as this war in the Middle East could drag on for a long time, that much is obvious. 

Another link - what to do NOW https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Weather Bomb Bust in New Zealand

New Zealand's National Party are now so desperate to appear relevant, they've manufactured an imminent tropical cyclone to scare everyone with. They had people sandbagging for days, and issued mandatory evacuation orders. Well, what happened? A bit of wind and rain is what happened. Study the weather map from Accuweather to see what the weather over the North Island looked like as Cyclone Vaianu was about to hit:

Of course the government will be saying, better to be prepared, but accuracy with forecasting is really important. Over-hyping a bit of rain means that eventually, people stop listening, and that may lead to people ignoring valid warnings.

This was, yet again, a pathetic attempt by National to appear relevant. They've kicked farmers and contractors in the teeth by doing nothing to mitigate high diesel prices caused by the fuel crisis. Now they're playing disaster politics. Can we please just get rid of these numpties.

Meanwhile, I'm sure the tame NZ media will have pictures of a couple of downed trees to scare everyone with. 

Weather North Island, NZ April 12th

Iran's Victory Changes Everything

The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until all of Iran's demands are met. Iran is calling the shots, and no-one can challenge them.

Useful Map from JP Morgan

Study the map to find out where and when fuel gets to critical levels in each region. Each area circled shows where fuel supply starts to become critical. The east coast of Africa is first, they're already feeling it. Then the Far East from the 1st of April. Europe follows on April 10th, and the US April 15th. Lastly, Australia and NZ feel the pinch from April 20th.

Why haven't governments hit the panic button yet? The reason: they're living in a false spring, either hoping supplies will resume, or refusing to see the bigger picture. What consumers are putting in their vehicles now are refined fuels from crude shipped back from before the war started. As those stocks from earlier gradually run out, the pinch will be felt, and fast. 

JP Morgan Map of Critical Oil Supplies

Food Rationing Coming Soon

Diesel could soon run out, and if that happens, food shortages will become very real. Australia is openly talking about it, and New Zealand must wake up.

The governments of Australia and New Zealand are inept, we need to get started with securing diesel supplies NOW.

Australia's VC Hero Arrested and Charged

Ben Roberts-Smith is a living legend, the winner of the military's highest honour, the Victoria Cross. Now, he sits in a jail cell. Australia is plumbing the depths. This is a complete disgrace and out of control stupidity:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/08/ben-roberts-smith-brs-gina-rinehart-alleged-war-crimes-arrest-ntwnfb

“As the recently passed, Brigadier George Mansford succinctly stated, ‘The oath to serve your country did not include a contract for the normal luxuries and comforts enjoyed within our society. On the contrary, it implied hardship, loyalty and devotion to duty’.

“Have we lost sight of the fact that in our inadequately defended country, facing uncertain times, the morale of our defence force has already been brought to its lowest ebb since inception, our defence personnel numbers are inadequate, and recruitment is suffering.

“Like many Australians, I hope that compassion and the Aussie spirit is extended to Ben and his family and his duty to our country in the hardship of war is never forgotten.”

Iran Wins, US Defeated

If reports are to believed, big IF, then Iran is now one of the big four, and the big three of US, China and Russia have a new member. Iran has defeated the United States.

For a ceasefire to be called, Iran had ten key demands, and Donald Trump announced he's accepted all of them. This leaves Iran in complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf is now its lake.

The US defeat in Afghanistan was the biggest defeat of a western country in history, ancient or modern. Now, this surpasses that. But then, the ceasefire may end within 24 hours, who knows? One thing is for certain, countries are going to find it hard still as the oil isn't flowing yet, and it may take a year or two for flows to resume even if the will exists to make it so.

Update: thinking about this some more, this appears to be Iran's Battle of Britain moment. I'll explain, the BoB was a defensive action, with Britain's goal of avoiding outright defeat. The way the Germans saw it, they were simply trying to knock Britain out, then when they'd done that they turned around to deal with the bigger threat, Russia (then known as the USSR). Thus, Britain claims victory as they were still standing when the attacker quit. Germany, however, say they did not lose, they just changed priorities.

The reality was that Germany was losing aircraft at a rate where they could not replace them. Most losses were on the ground in takeoff and landing, in fact, not fighting in the air. If Germany had continued, they'd have simply run out of planes, while Britain's industry could replace theirs. The Germans badly underestimated the industrial output of the British Midlands.

This appears to be a similar situation in the Gulf. The US lost 11 or so aircraft just rescuing one downed airman, and their bases have all been destroyed in the region. Their carrier strike group has had to retreat well into the Arabian Sea, well away from cruise missiles. Scuttlebutt says that Trump did launch an attack on Iran, in line with his ultimatum, but that every Tomahawk cruise missile was taken out by Iran. He buckled after that, and I'm speculating he was told that the US was fast depleting its ordnance and that it couldn't be easily replaced. 

Israel has announced they do not consider their offensive in Lebanon as being covered by the ceasefire, and the Gulf states will be unhappy ending up effectively satraps of the new Iranian empire. Therefore, this ceasefire is unlikely to last any more than a few hours or days - we'll see.

And think, we have a Soccer World Cup coming up, that will be interesting. 

Theo Von Nails It

It was never Republicans vs Democrats, it was the war machine vs everyone:

What's Going On in Australia?

 Is a full fuel lockdown coming?

National Want to Lose the Election in 2026

The cockwomble National government of New Zealand, led by Christopher Luxon, a man who looks like a timeshare salesman from the 1990s, seems to have given up. No doubt they're all brushing up their CVs as they've now dropped to 26% in the latest poll. For any government, that's catastrophic. 

Luxon has dropped to 17% as the preferred prime minister. Coalition partner Winston Peters, may soon pass him. Luxon is a man who can never find his spine.

The fuel crisis has exposed National's Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, who can only say she understands the issues, will talk to all stakeholders, have reports done, and reports on those reports, but who never actually does anything. She's a classic duck-shoving middle manager. 

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10181-nz-national-voting-intention-march-2026

Reaction to Trump's Speech

 A quality rant this:

Update: Strait of Hormuz

The amount of oil and gas being carried through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, from an average of over a hundred tankers daily during February, down to an average of six tankers daily in March. However, there is a trend of some tankers running the strait by sticking close to the Omani shore, while others are paying the toll to Iran and going through the toll gate they've set up between Larak Island and Qeshm Island (not a literal toll gate, but a passage through which ships must travel).

Russian oil is back in the mix, too, and Southeast Asian refineries appear to be using this oil as additional feedstock.

What may happen is that the world gets to a point where the price of fuel is simply high all the time, with a new normal being that Iran has control of a huge chunk of global supply. 

Countries like Australia and New Zealand will have to suck this up, for now, but then move swiftly to self-sufficiency, as they both have the resources. They both lack the ability to process these resources, and so they must move to fully industrialise.

Australia's Military Compromised

I wondered how long it would take for the penny to drop. Without fuel, Australia won't be able to defend itself.

Reaction to Trump's Speech

Interesting initial reaction, I'll check over the next few hours whether the markets react positively or negatively.

Trump Addresses the Nation

I watched it live, but I have to confess I'm none the wiser. President Trump said what he'd already posted on social media, and left a lot up in the air. What, exactly, was that all about? 

Australia Allows Heavier Loads

It makes sense to allow trucks to carry more each load, it will save fuel, although roads will get knocked about more.

Australia Fuel Crisis, Food Shortages Loom?

With 25 million mouths to feed, how will Australia feed its people affordably if the diesel and fertiliser costs soar?

Australia and New Zealand Get Roasted

Deserved shellacking this:

For New Zealand, a whole series of decisions amounted to sabotage.

Fuel Crisis Needs Urgent Action

Both Australia's and New Zealand's governments refuse to take action. It is as if they want the countries to fail.

Can you ride a horse? I can.

Australia to Underwrite Extra Fuel Imports

Getting the idea New Zealand? Do something. 

No idea if this measure will help, but at least it's an attempt.

Australia's Fuel Crisis Is Real

Australia and New Zealand are so cooked. The people running things are morons on an epic scale. 

US Defeat?

The suggestion is that the US has used up its ordnance, especially its anti-missile defenses. That explains the sudden shift, from 'unconditional surrender' to now asking for diplomacy. Iran, for its part, seems to have more missiles and drones still. The drones are simple and cheap to make, and being made of balsa wood are very hard to detect with radar. 

Israel is vulnerable. They are small and present an easy target. Iran is not so vulnerable as they present a much larger target. I note that Iran's order of aerial attack is quite clever; to begin with they fired drones without warheads. Nevertheless, they had to be taken down at great expense. Then, gradually Iran ramped up, adding warheads to their drones, then increasing the size of warheads fired by missile. Thus, as Israel's defenses depleted, the weight delivered by Iran grew exponentially.

The uprising within Iran did not eventuate. There appears no groundswell of support for a revolution. 

The risk now is that the Persian Gulf may end up being Iran's lake. I read somewhere that the leaders of Kuwait and Bahrain have left their small principalities, with no immediate intention to return. It looks as if they know Iran has emerged the winner.

46 Days Left

New Zealand has 46 days of diesel left and has not taken the oil crisis seriously enough - yet. Meanwhile, the Philippines has declared a state of emergency with 45 days left.

Collapse of Australia Looms

Founder and CEO of Clime Investment Management, John Abernethy, explains where Australia is headed, given the course they're on. You might as well add New Zealand to the list, everything he says applies to that country as well.

How Some Countries Are Responding

Some countries are taking action, while others like New Zealand and Australia, have their heads in the sand:

Energy Lockdowns Coming?

This will be bigger than 2020. We are swiftly heading into energy lockdowns, as promoted by the likes of the WEF.

One possibility is they'll corral people into sectors. Initially, they'll call this a temporary measure to minimise fuel use. But, it'll become compulsory, and to access services your digital ID will be required.

Market Manipulation?

It does have the appearance of market manipulation. Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline, and the markets fell significantly. Then, with the deadline looming, he came up with a potential deal, and the markets rose significantly. Anyone who knew of these announcements could have made a fortune. What do you think?

Size Comparison: Iran vs Europe

People wondering why it is very hard to subjugate Iran need to consider its size. Iran is quite large and mountainous. No doubt they've dispersed their ordnance. It'd be almost impossible to find it, and their missiles and drones are launched from mobile units.

Iran v Europe

Asian Countries Introduce Fuel Restrictions

Here's a quick outline of what some Asian countries are doing to ration fuel. 

New Zealand Fuel Crisis - Action Required NOW

Here's my plan for sorting this:

1. Emergency declared under existing legislation, wartime economy. Government puts the entire liquid fuels infrastructure under direct government control.

2. Get the University of Canterbury and University of Auckland mechanical and chemical engineers on board, together with the NZ Army engineers (Sappers);

3. They've got 60 days to come up with a distillation solution producing enough diesel to keep the wheels and machinery moving;

4. The government enters the spot market for diesel, anywhere, any quality;

5. Get all farmers and transport operators to disable or remove their emissions systems, and get ready to run regular high sulphur fuel;

6. Bring the fuel in through existing shore facilities, price controlled and distributed according to direct state orders;

7. Arrest anyone who gets in the way, and prosecute any price gouging.

8. In the medium term, once this framework is established within 48 hours, begin feasibility studies on immediate production of biodisesel and lignite to diesel;

9. With immediate effect, ban the export of NZ crude oil and LPG;

10. Import LPG conversion kits for cars and vans.

11. With all this underway and framework stabilised, then worry about fertiliser (this prioritises tractors, machinery and trucks over chemicals in the ground - it is what it is).

Now, get on with it. Why is the government not taking action? Reports are that even if the conflict is resolved tomorrow, it will take 6 months to get the flow normal again. But, the likelihood is this conflict will be all year at least. We must act NOW.

Lignite to Diesel - NZ's Shelved Project

New Zealand should start making lignite to diesel and urea (fertilizer). The feasibility studies have been done, and the resource exists in limitless quantities. 

The following report is available on a NZ government department website. Make it happen NZ.

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/8fb7b2c240/liquid-fuels-from-lignite.pdf

Internationally, the demand for crude oil is increasing, at a time when many experts are predicting that the peak in oil production will occur sometime over the next 20 years. This combined with concerns about the security of oil supply, particularly with the current political instability in several oil producing regions, means that the price of oil has the potential to rise to unprecedented levels over the next two decades. New Zealand depends on imported oil for 99% [MED 2006] of its transportation fuels. If the cost of crude oil rises as predicted and the possibility of serious supply interruptions becomes more pressing, then alternatives need to be sought now to avoid serious transportation fuel shortages in the future. 

Who to Blame?

I always say that given long enough to think about it, the US, all of Europe and Israel will come to the conclusion that it is China's fault. Convince me I'm wrong.

WWIII Now Probable

It looks like WWIII is about to start. Military strikes on Iran's oil and gas facilities may force China and India to join the conflict on the side of Iran. They need to do this, especially India, as they're already experiencing shortages and India, in particular, has a large population that needs gas to cook their food with.

Russia and North Korea could then follow. South Korea are now in dire peril. North Korean artillery can easily bombard Seoul, the capital of South Korea. I don't see how South Korea could hold out.

With China and India involved, they'll be able to get their supplies out of the Gulf, and they'd take effective control of all oil and gas coming out of the Gulf. 

Targeting oil and gas complexes is a massive escalation and an act of utter stupidity.

Australia's Fuel Crisis

Australia are looking at rationing food as their supply of diesel starts to dry up.

What Now for Iran?

It appears Iran is settling in for a long war of attrition. Their drone and missile strikes have fallen away, but they're still continuing, albeit at a lower tempo. What I think they're now doing is setting out to cause enough disruption to effectively destroy the Gulf states, and humble Israel.

The Strait of Hormuz appears to be operating like a toll road. Iran are allowing through only those they approve of. Then, they have overland routes from China and Russia for resupplying its arms industry.

No uprising occurred amongst the people of Iran. This looks to have been a minority protesting, such as students, with no widespread support. That's disappointing and there appears no viable strategy for going in on the ground. 

Another angle relates to Iraq. Various militias aligned with Iran may now rise up. Thus, the US and Israel may have made a rod for their own backs.

All said, oil prices are likely to stay high for the foreseeable future.

Netanyahu's Disappearing Ring

OK, something is definitely up with Netanyahu:

Where is Netanyahu?

I've been ignoring the whole Netanyahu is dead or injured thing, but this video got my attention. I'm prepared to now accept that something is off when it comes to the leader of Israel. Proof of life is required.

Tax-Free Downunder

Here's an idea, New Zealand should move to mop up all the money that will be fleeing the United Arab Emirates right now. All those seeking the tax-free life, don't like receiving messages on their phone telling them their friendly neighbourhood missile will be arriving shortly.

A few years ago I suggested NZ set up a tax-free zone in the East Cape. Let's do this now. For people from overseas, we could take part of the coast and designate it tax-free so long as they stay resident for 120+ days of the year (or something). 

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/07/make-east-cape-monaco.html

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2018/06/making-east-cape-monaco.html

Australia on Edge of Cliff

 Australia is in a bad position at the onset of the oil crisis.

Ground Troops to the Middle East?

Oh no, going in on the ground in Iran? Iran is mountainous and contains 90 million people. This won't end well. And Afghanistan will be itching to get involved.

Make Your Own Diesel

This video shows how an American bloke has his diesel engine running on any oil, check it out. I'm placing this here to motivate my fellow Kiwis to get in touch with their elected representatives, insisting they stop messing about, and treat the current fuel situation as the real crisis that it is.

Here's how the government can do this:

1. Get the mechanical and chemical engineering departments of New Zealand universities together to sort out what works best, quickest, ignoring environmental, health and safety, just how to get enough diesel to power emergency response, trains, ferries, farms, hospitals and key transport and agriculture;
2. Mobilise the NZ Army engineers;
3. Using existing emergency legislation, grab all those elements needed to feed NZ's own set-up; 
4. Cease exporting oil in the immediate sense.
5. As a side project look at all wood waste and how much of it can be quickly turned to ethanol;
6. Treat LPG as like 4 and 5 above;
7. Then roll this out; what is created is a system of liquid fuels which can all run engines of differing types whether it be fuel oil, diesel, petrol etc.,
8. You've got 60 days.

Oil Crisis

Iran has clearly prepared for this and are setting about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. They're being successful at it, and are now attacking tankers and oil transfer facilities in the region.

For Australia and New Zealand, this is becoming an existential crisis. Already, farms in remote rural locations in Australia are finding they cannot obtain diesel. Hardware stores have sold out of jerry cans as people stock up. 

New Zealand is steadfastly blundering onward, their heads firmly in the sand. The country's leaders are woefully incompetent, it's like leaving a bunch of ten year-olds in charge. Here are some things to think about, diesel is essential to the nation, thus:

• Fuel oil is required for ships and all of NZ's fuel oil comes out of the Persian Gulf. If fuel oil runs out, there will be no Cook Strait ferries running, and no coastal shipping either. Forget imports and exports, as ships will not visit if they cannot fill up when they arrive.
• People will die as hospital back-up generators will have no fuel to run.
• Trains will not run, apart from electric commuter rail (the main trunk line in the North Island is partly electric).
• Farms will stop working.
• Mines will stop working and so no coal as a substitute.
• No trucks delivering goods to supermarkets.
• No factories processing food as parts of all operations require something diesel powered - we all start to starve in a country containing enough food to feed 50 million people. Crops will rot in the field.
• Natural disasters, how are we going to clear roads blocked by landslips?

Can you ride a horse? I can, but I guess they'll be in strong demand, so will be hard to find.

What is worse is that NZ does have oil, gas and coal, but it threw its refining capacity away - literally. EV's are not the answer either as the Gulf is the source of 90%+ of the industrial supplies of sulphur required to produce batteries - oh dear - rainbow hugs and moonbeams won't do it.

Instead of talking about it, get on with powering up some ability to produce diesel, bio-diesel, anything. 

Coal to the Rescue

As a result of the disruption to LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf, Asia, in particular, is moving to energy security through coal.

Coal is the giant on the block, and always has been.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal/news/531727

Coal prices climbed above $140 per ton, hitting their highest levels since November 2024 as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and resulting disruptions significantly heightened global energy supply risks.

Oil also surged above $100 for the first time since 2022 after major Middle Eastern producers curtailed output as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut.

In addition, the shutdown of Qatar’s massive liquefied natural gas production has boosted demand for fuel switching in the power sector.

Australia and New Zealand Fertiliser and Hormuz

New Zealand and Australia rely on fertiliser coming out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict goes on much longer, their respective economies will be severely impacted.

Australia Joins War

Is this a wise move? China obtains most of its imported crude from Iran, while Australia relies on China to buy its output from its mines. Won't this aggressive act by Australia result in backlash from China?

Message - Don't Panic

Here's a rational explanation as to why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is NOT an apocalyptic crisis. Although I'd add that some regions will be far more seriously impacted than others. The Far East, South-east Asia and Oceania being top of that list. China has stopped exporting fuels, which further restricts supply to the region.

Fuel Oil Supply Strangled

Something I overlooked is that fuel oil supplies for ships are being affected by the war in the Persian Gulf. The Middle East is a major supplier of the fuel oil required for ships, and Singapore is a major refueling point which imports its fuel oil from the Middle East. Fuel oil prices have therefore surged 30-40%, and supplies will run out toward the end of March.

The cost of goods will rise worldwide as shipping costs adjust upward, and some countries that rely on exports for their income may simply be unable to ship to their customers. Likewise, energy imports will be choked off.

Australia and New Zealand are two countries impacted, and the rest of the Far East as well.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/HSFO-Prices-Jump-40-as-War-Chokes-Key-Singapore-Bunkering-Hub.html

The price of fuel oil has surged this week as the stalled tanker traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is tightening supplies of the fuel in Asia, the key bunkering hub for fuel oil used in ships. 

The Middle East is a major global supplier of fuel oil, especially of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO). But the Iran war has all but halted traffic via the Strait of Hormuz, stranding supplies for Asia and its key bunkering hub of Singapore. 

As a result, prices have soared and are set to continue rising, traders and analysts told Reuters on Friday.  

Strait of Hormuz

Commentators predicting an oil crisis following Iran's closing of the Strait of Hormuz are well wide of the mark. That is because Saudi Aramco has started shipping more oil out of its Red Sea facilities (see link). Furthermore, Egypt is offering its pipeline to move Saudi oil to the Med.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/egypt-offers-sumed-pipeline-to-facilitate-saudi-oil-exports-amid-hormuz-closure/

I've also seen predictions that some of the people in the Gulf states will starve. But anyone looking at a map will see that there is a land corridor to these states, and so food can get in to feed stranded tourists. The same land corridor could be used to evacuate people from Dubai, Doha and the like. Buses are starting to look mighty useful.

However, there are some serious issues regarding the viability of the United Arab Emirates long term. Dubai as an airport hub could be lost. Ethiopia has been promoting Addis Ababa as a useful mid-point stopover, and they've commenced building a new international airport there. 

Dubai's status as a tax haven sanctuary may be over, too. The rich don't like adding bombs to the risk assessment. It'll also be interesting to see how the large sovereign wealth funds based in the Persian Gulf fare now that their economies are toast. This will massively impact the United Kingdom. Interesting times ahead indeed.

Iran appears to have lost its navy and air force, and this war will end when it runs out of ordnance. I give it another three weeks at this rate. Will China and Russia come to their aid? I doubt it, as Russia has its own issues, plus it'll be selling more oil right now. China tends to be all talk; they've never won a war, and if they enter the fray, they too will lose their entire navy.

South Korea, Japan, South-East Asia and Oceania may experience the rapid onset of an energy crisis, and in Australia and New Zealand, there seems to be little urgency. The latter two really do have useless leaders. 

How Much in the Tank?

Australia has less than a month of fuel in reserve. Watch as it implodes as the conflict in the Middle East worsens. I made only one prediction for this year and that was - Australia will collapse in 2026.

Fuel Prices Set to Spike

The utter stupidity of the New Zealand government is now on full display as the price of fuel is set to rise following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

New Zealand has its own oil, but no ability to refine it. That's because the NZ government allowed its one refinery to close down. 

Get working now you cockwomble NZ government. Get that refinery up and running again, pronto.

US Strikes Iran

The Winter Olympics have wrapped up, the US carriers are in place; time to end the Iranian regime. I hope this can be a swift victory and that Iran can go back to being a civilised country.

 

 Goldie Ghamari has started a live feed