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October 11, 2017

NZ General Election 2017: The Numbers

This is how things stack up in the House of Representatives in New Zealand following the final count of the General Election 2017.

National: 56 seats, Labour 46, NZ First 9, Greens 8, ACT 1.

Possible coalitions therefore, in order of likelihood (need 61 seats to form a government). Note that ACT has become irrelevant:

National 56 + NZ First 9 = 65
Labour + Greens + NZ First = 63
Labour + NZ First 55 + Greens on Confidence and Supply = 63
National 56 + NZ First on Confidence and Supply = 65
National + Labour = 102
National + Greens = 64

If we take the top three options as being far more likely than the bottom three, then we can see that National are left stranded. Labour are in the box seat with more options for how they form a government. It is worth mentioning that only Labour increased its share of the vote this time round. Everyone else slipped and this must play on the minds of the leaders during negotiations.

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