Emergency Planning for New Zealand

Forget raindrops, diesel is running low. New Zealand has 21 days onshore, in tanks, right now. Three weeks and if any of the ships inbound don't arrive, the country runs out and the economy fails.

I looked things up and found the country can survive, kind of. NZ has about 100 steam locomotives, 20 of which are in regular use and ready to go. These operate on heritage lines and do tourist excursions. They may have to go back to work. Likewise, traction engine operators may be called upon.

The central section of the North Island main trunk railway line is electrified, thanks to Rob Muldoon's Think Big scheme, and another Think Big was NZ's conversion of LPG to urea fertiliser, which supplies a third of urea required by farmers. 

So, NZ will not come to a complete standstill, and farms will still be able to operate, but farmers may need to get back on the horse. Coal is still plentiful, it may come in handy.

NZ has a lot of wood waste, and this can be converted to biodiesel. However, the problem with biodiesel is it has a higher freezing point, so cannot be used in colder areas; think central North Island and the South Island's alpine areas and Otago and Southland. 

When food arrives in cities, electric vehicles will be needed to pick goods up and move them to warehouses and shops.

Given how stretched things will be, the country will need to work 24/7. To move around within cities, people will have to ride bicycles and electric vehicles. Many buses are now electric and they will still be working. However, as diesel vehicles are needed to maintain the electrical infrastructure, there will be more frequent outages, and people will die as back-up generators in hospitals will have nothing in the tank, or only 3 hours with refueling delayed beyond that. Fire engines may be unavailable if the country runs out of diesel. There are countless ways NZ will be adversely affected by the loss of diesel, these are just a few examples.

NZ needs to start taking this seriously. I have a plan and this should have been done already: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Update: The NZ government is incompetent. To think they're the party of the farmers! And yet they've kicked farmers in the teeth. Will farmers realise they're in an abusive relationship, or will they, as always, go back to their abuser, believing this time will be different?

Update: Reuters is reporting that Russia, from the 1st of May, is going to stop the transfer of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via a pipeline that runs through their territory. This will put more pressure on existing fuel supplies as Germany looks to replace this lost supply with other sources of crude being imported by ship. NZ is at the end of the supply chain and has no leverage due to the small quantities required, thus is likely to be further squeezed. The NZ government appear oblivious.

Steve Keen Explains Just How Much of a Problem the World Has

This is a must watch. The world will experience a global famine if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened up.

Luxon Destroying National and New Zealand

New Zealand's prime minister, the man who looks like a timeshare salesman from the 1990's, shiny suit, shaved head and all, has survived a confidence vote within his caucus. It was a vote called by himself. 

The bad news is diesel is still running out, but the good news is that if National go into the election in November with Luxon at the helm, they stand to be wiped out. That's because, with diesel now double the price of six weeks ago, the party of the farmer has kicked the farmer in the teeth. 

The farmers of NZ must soon realise that Luxon and his cohort represent the ruling corporate elites from overseas. They view NZ farmers as hayseeds, there to be exploited.

People may say I'm being too drastic, that National has always been around. Certainly, they've been around a long time, since 1936 in fact. They were formed out of the rubble of the rural Reform, and urban United parties. Labour had swept to its first election victory in 1935 and thus, effectively, gutted both Reform and United, as well as what remained of the once great Liberal party. Since 1936, National has been a kind of schizophrenic beast, with its urban and rural wings in constant turmoil. Now, the farmers can see just who is in charge, and it isn't them, that's for sure.

Back in 2020, there was almost an uprising with a group calling themselves Groundswell. But this was really only National supporters trying to defuse unrest. But, this time is different because in 2020 it was Labour in power, but now it is their own, National, who are the tyrants.

National deserves to be destroyed, and now that the piss-weak Luxon is hanging around longer, that outcome looks increasingly likely. 

  

Dangote Too Cheap

The World Bank is putting pressure on Nigeria to get Dangote to lift its prices, they're selling refined oil too cheap. You cannot make this up!

What About Crew Stuck in the Persian Gulf?

What has been happening to the crew stuck on ships caught in the Persian Gulf? I've been wondering if some crew may simply abandon ship, and then row to shore while leaving the vessel anchored.

Jet Fuel Running Out

The opening of the Strait of Hormuz didn't last long, and now we are looking at airlines shutting down or going out of business. This is not a pricing issue, it is an absolute scarcity of the key resource - kerosene. Only a small proportion of each barrel of oil turns into kerosene, otherwise known as jet fuel.

Iran Opens Strait, For Now

Good news, Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz so long as the ceasefire in Lebanon holds. Ships must still go through their tollgate though, which limits the speed with which ships can exit the Gulf. I checked on Marine Traffic's website and there isn't a flood of vessels underway, but expect this number to increase significantly. 

Now, Australia and NZ governments, don't sit back and claim credit for everything while doing precisely nothing. Now is the window of opportunity to come up with distillation solutions for your own oil. How long do you need just sitting around on your hands, you clowns!

Here's what to do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Massive Oil Downunder

The corrupt politicians will tell everyone there is no oil in Australia or New Zealand. Quite the contrary, both contain massive resources of oil that are almost diesel coming up out of the ground.

LIV Golf Could End Soon

Reports are coming in that the Saudi backed golf tour, LIV Golf, could have the plug pulled on it. It makes sense as Saudi Arabia has suffered a severe hit to its revenues. They can still ship oil out through their Red Sea port, but the capacity there is limited, so the double-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz must end soon.

Saudi Arabia spend a lot on sports in an attempt to soften their image worldwide. They invest in major soccer teams, boxing, motor sports, sailing, the list is endless. 

What will happen to the golfers now playing on the LIV tour? My guess is most of them will find a way back into the PGA. That's because the PGA really does need them for their talent. If they try to ban them, then that leaves a player pool wandering around the place who may form into another tour and, perhaps, outdo the PGA. It's an old quandary any business faces; don't leave assets out there that someone else may operate better.

Professional sport across the world is about to have a serious haircut if this conflict goes on much longer. That's because it isn't just Saudi Arabia sports washing, add the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain to the list as well. Take away that money and the value of many pro sports franchises starts to plummet.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/apr/16/liv-and-let-die-golf-rebels-count-cost-saudi-cutbacks

A slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s lavish spending on sport, which is conservatively estimated to have cost the kingdom more than $10bn in the past five years, had been expected, but its Public Investment Fund’s withdrawal of financial support for the rebel tour – which was first mooted to LIV execs on Monday – has caused shockwaves throughout the wider industry.

Significantly, the possibility of PIF’s withdrawal was not even addressed in an email sent by the LIV chief executive, Scott O’Neil, to his staff on Wednesday evening, which has left many of them more fearful for their jobs. Such concerns are not limited to golf, with other sports administrators fearful that similar cuts in Saudi’s budget could be coming their way.

Food Shortages Possible Australia

Things are getting really bad Downunder.

Refinery Fire in Australia

What are the chances of this randomly happening when it did? 

Blockade of a Blockade Restricts Supply

The United States has now put into effect its blockade of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; a blockade of a blockade. For any country importing its oil from the Persian Gulf, this makes things much worse. That's because, with Iran's single blockade, some oil did get through. Take China as an example, they obtain about 40% of their total energy imports from the Gulf. Now, that supply appears shut off, which forces China to start buying from other suppliers, driving up the price of oil generally, but also denying smaller nations like Australia and New Zealand. China's volume demand is so great, they could now soak up everything. 

What is astonishing to me is how lightly the Australian and New Zealand governments are taking this. They are like sheep being led into the abattoir. Immediate action is required - this is what the NZ government must do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Oil - Lots of It

What does a barrel of oil contain, what products are derived from it, and what are the different types of crude oil?

1. Types of Crude

2. Refining Process - Like Making Moonshine

 

3. Refining Output - Various Products

Why the Strait of Hormuz Is So Important to Australia and New Zealand

A bit of simple arithmetic is needed to explain why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz could destroy the economies of Australia and New Zealand.

Both countries rely on imported refined product from Asia. New Zealand is wholly dependent while Australia is about 90% dependent. China has ceased exporting product, so cross them off the list. That leaves, for the most part; South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia as suppliers.

South Korea processes up to 3.4m bpd (million barrels per day), 2.5m of which is consumed domestically. 70% of their supply comes from the Middle East.

Singapore processes about 1.5m bpd, and they import 70% of their oil from the Middle East.

Malaysia processes about 900,000 bpb, and they import about 40% of that oil from the Middle East as they have their own oil wells. Domestically, they consume about 77% of the total and export the rest.

I trust you may begin to see the problem. With a huge amount of Middle Eastern oil coming through the Strait, but now shut off, these Asian economies will need to prioritise their own market first, and even then they'll come up short.

South Korea has begun buying oil from Canada, about 800,000 barrels per day. That's well short of the 2.4m bpd needed. They can only just supply themselves, leaving nothing to export. 

Singapore looks set to lose 1.0m bpd, and that equates to the daily consumption of Australia. Forget NZ, they'll just be left to fail.

Malaysia, just to supply its own needs, will have to import from other sources, just as South Korea is doing.

All of this adds up to a very serious predicament Downunder. I see the Philippines has declared a state of emergency, and that is a wise thing to do. Australia and New Zealand need to follow suit as this war in the Middle East could drag on for a long time, that much is obvious. 

Another link - what to do NOW https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Weather Bomb Bust in New Zealand

New Zealand's National Party are now so desperate to appear relevant, they've manufactured an imminent tropical cyclone to scare everyone with. They had people sandbagging for days, and issued mandatory evacuation orders. Well, what happened? A bit of wind and rain is what happened. Study the weather map from Accuweather to see what the weather over the North Island looked like as Cyclone Vaianu was about to hit:

Of course the government will be saying, better to be prepared, but accuracy with forecasting is really important. Over-hyping a bit of rain means that eventually, people stop listening, and that may lead to people ignoring valid warnings.

This was, yet again, a pathetic attempt by National to appear relevant. They've kicked farmers and contractors in the teeth by doing nothing to mitigate high diesel prices caused by the fuel crisis. Now they're playing disaster politics. Can we please just get rid of these numpties.

Meanwhile, I'm sure the tame NZ media will have pictures of a couple of downed trees to scare everyone with. 

Weather North Island, NZ April 12th

Iran's Victory Changes Everything

The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until all of Iran's demands are met. Iran is calling the shots, and no-one can challenge them.

Useful Map from JP Morgan

Study the map to find out where and when fuel gets to critical levels in each region. Each area circled shows where fuel supply starts to become critical. The east coast of Africa is first, they're already feeling it. Then the Far East from the 1st of April. Europe follows on April 10th, and the US April 15th. Lastly, Australia and NZ feel the pinch from April 20th.

Why haven't governments hit the panic button yet? The reason: they're living in a false spring, either hoping supplies will resume, or refusing to see the bigger picture. What consumers are putting in their vehicles now are refined fuels from crude shipped back from before the war started. As those stocks from earlier gradually run out, the pinch will be felt, and fast. 

JP Morgan Map of Critical Oil Supplies

Food Rationing Coming Soon

Diesel could soon run out, and if that happens, food shortages will become very real. Australia is openly talking about it, and New Zealand must wake up.

The governments of Australia and New Zealand are inept, we need to get started with securing diesel supplies NOW.

Australia's VC Hero Arrested and Charged

Ben Roberts-Smith is a living legend, the winner of the military's highest honour, the Victoria Cross. Now, he sits in a jail cell. Australia is plumbing the depths. This is a complete disgrace and out of control stupidity:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/08/ben-roberts-smith-brs-gina-rinehart-alleged-war-crimes-arrest-ntwnfb

“As the recently passed, Brigadier George Mansford succinctly stated, ‘The oath to serve your country did not include a contract for the normal luxuries and comforts enjoyed within our society. On the contrary, it implied hardship, loyalty and devotion to duty’.

“Have we lost sight of the fact that in our inadequately defended country, facing uncertain times, the morale of our defence force has already been brought to its lowest ebb since inception, our defence personnel numbers are inadequate, and recruitment is suffering.

“Like many Australians, I hope that compassion and the Aussie spirit is extended to Ben and his family and his duty to our country in the hardship of war is never forgotten.”

Iran Wins, US Defeated

If reports are to believed, big IF, then Iran is now one of the big four, and the big three of US, China and Russia have a new member. Iran has defeated the United States.

For a ceasefire to be called, Iran had ten key demands, and Donald Trump announced he's accepted all of them. This leaves Iran in complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf is now its lake.

The US defeat in Afghanistan was the biggest defeat of a western country in history, ancient or modern. Now, this surpasses that. But then, the ceasefire may end within 24 hours, who knows? One thing is for certain, countries are going to find it hard still as the oil isn't flowing yet, and it may take a year or two for flows to resume even if the will exists to make it so.

Update: thinking about this some more, this appears to be Iran's Battle of Britain moment. I'll explain, the BoB was a defensive action, with Britain's goal of avoiding outright defeat. The way the Germans saw it, they were simply trying to knock Britain out, then when they'd done that they turned around to deal with the bigger threat, Russia (then known as the USSR). Thus, Britain claims victory as they were still standing when the attacker quit. Germany, however, say they did not lose, they just changed priorities.

The reality was that Germany was losing aircraft at a rate where they could not replace them. Most losses were on the ground in takeoff and landing, in fact, not fighting in the air. If Germany had continued, they'd have simply run out of planes, while Britain's industry could replace theirs. The Germans badly underestimated the industrial output of the British Midlands.

This appears to be a similar situation in the Gulf. The US lost 11 or so aircraft just rescuing one downed airman, and their bases have all been destroyed in the region. Their carrier strike group has had to retreat well into the Arabian Sea, well away from cruise missiles. Scuttlebutt says that Trump did launch an attack on Iran, in line with his ultimatum, but that every Tomahawk cruise missile was taken out by Iran. He buckled after that, and I'm speculating he was told that the US was fast depleting its ordnance and that it couldn't be easily replaced. 

Israel has announced they do not consider their offensive in Lebanon as being covered by the ceasefire, and the Gulf states will be unhappy ending up effectively satraps of the new Iranian empire. Therefore, this ceasefire is unlikely to last any more than a few hours or days - we'll see.

And think, we have a Soccer World Cup coming up, that will be interesting.