Australia and New Zealand Get Roasted

Deserved shellacking this:

For New Zealand, a whole series of decisions amounted to sabotage.

Fuel Crisis Needs Urgent Action

Both Australia's and New Zealand's governments refuse to take action. It is as if they want the countries to fail.

Can you ride a horse? I can.

Australia to Underwrite Extra Fuel Imports

Getting the idea New Zealand? Do something. 

No idea if this measure will help, but at least it's an attempt.

Australia's Fuel Crisis Is Real

Australia and New Zealand are so cooked. The people running things are morons on an epic scale. 

US Defeat?

The suggestion is that the US has used up its ordnance, especially its anti-missile defenses. That explains the sudden shift, from 'unconditional surrender' to now asking for diplomacy. Iran, for its part, seems to have more missiles and drones still. The drones are simple and cheap to make, and being made of balsa wood are very hard to detect with radar. 

Israel is vulnerable. They are small and present an easy target. Iran is not so vulnerable as they present a much larger target. I note that Iran's order of aerial attack is quite clever; to begin with they fired drones without warheads. Nevertheless, they had to be taken down at great expense. Then, gradually Iran ramped up, adding warheads to their drones, then increasing the size of warheads fired by missile. Thus, as Israel's defenses depleted, the weight delivered by Iran grew exponentially.

The uprising within Iran did not eventuate. There appears no groundswell of support for a revolution. 

The risk now is that the Persian Gulf may end up being Iran's lake. I read somewhere that the leaders of Kuwait and Bahrain have left their small principalities, with no immediate intention to return. It looks as if they know Iran has emerged the winner.

46 Days Left

New Zealand has 46 days of diesel left and has not taken the oil crisis seriously enough - yet. Meanwhile, the Philippines has declared a state of emergency with 45 days left.

Collapse of Australia Looms

Founder and CEO of Clime Investment Management, John Abernethy, explains where Australia is headed, given the course they're on. You might as well add New Zealand to the list, everything he says applies to that country as well.

How Some Countries Are Responding

Some countries are taking action, while others like New Zealand and Australia, have their heads in the sand:

Energy Lockdowns Coming?

This will be bigger than 2020. We are swiftly heading into energy lockdowns, as promoted by the likes of the WEF.

One possibility is they'll corral people into sectors. Initially, they'll call this a temporary measure to minimise fuel use. But, it'll become compulsory, and to access services your digital ID will be required.

Market Manipulation?

It does have the appearance of market manipulation. Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline, and the markets fell significantly. Then, with the deadline looming, he came up with a potential deal, and the markets rose significantly. Anyone who knew of these announcements could have made a fortune. What do you think?

Size Comparison: Iran vs Europe

People wondering why it is very hard to subjugate Iran need to consider its size. Iran is quite large and mountainous. No doubt they've dispersed their ordnance. It'd be almost impossible to find it, and their missiles and drones are launched from mobile units.

Iran v Europe

Asian Countries Introduce Fuel Restrictions

Here's a quick outline of what some Asian countries are doing to ration fuel. 

New Zealand Fuel Crisis - Action Required NOW

Here's my plan for sorting this:

1. Emergency declared under existing legislation, wartime economy. Government puts the entire liquid fuels infrastructure under direct government control.

2. Get the University of Canterbury and University of Auckland mechanical and chemical engineers on board, together with the NZ Army engineers (Sappers);

3. They've got 60 days to come up with a distillation solution producing enough diesel to keep the wheels and machinery moving;

4. The government enters the spot market for diesel, anywhere, any quality;

5. Get all farmers and transport operators to disable or remove their emissions systems, and get ready to run regular high sulphur fuel;

6. Bring the fuel in through existing shore facilities, price controlled and distributed according to direct state orders;

7. Arrest anyone who gets in the way, and prosecute any price gouging.

8. In the medium term, once this framework is established within 48 hours, begin feasibility studies on immediate production of biodisesel and lignite to diesel;

9. With immediate effect, ban the export of NZ crude oil and LPG;

10. Import LPG conversion kits for cars and vans.

11. With all this underway and framework stabilised, then worry about fertiliser (this prioritises tractors, machinery and trucks over chemicals in the ground - it is what it is).

Now, get on with it. Why is the government not taking action? Reports are that even if the conflict is resolved tomorrow, it will take 6 months to get the flow normal again. But, the likelihood is this conflict will be all year at least. We must act NOW.

Lignite to Diesel - NZ's Shelved Project

New Zealand should start making lignite to diesel and urea (fertilizer). The feasibility studies have been done, and the resource exists in limitless quantities. 

The following report is available on a NZ government department website. Make it happen NZ.

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/8fb7b2c240/liquid-fuels-from-lignite.pdf

Internationally, the demand for crude oil is increasing, at a time when many experts are predicting that the peak in oil production will occur sometime over the next 20 years. This combined with concerns about the security of oil supply, particularly with the current political instability in several oil producing regions, means that the price of oil has the potential to rise to unprecedented levels over the next two decades. New Zealand depends on imported oil for 99% [MED 2006] of its transportation fuels. If the cost of crude oil rises as predicted and the possibility of serious supply interruptions becomes more pressing, then alternatives need to be sought now to avoid serious transportation fuel shortages in the future. 

Who to Blame?

I always say that given long enough to think about it, the US, all of Europe and Israel will come to the conclusion that it is China's fault. Convince me I'm wrong.

WWIII Now Probable

It looks like WWIII is about to start. Military strikes on Iran's oil and gas facilities may force China and India to join the conflict on the side of Iran. They need to do this, especially India, as they're already experiencing shortages and India, in particular, has a large population that needs gas to cook their food with.

Russia and North Korea could then follow. South Korea are now in dire peril. North Korean artillery can easily bombard Seoul, the capital of South Korea. I don't see how South Korea could hold out.

With China and India involved, they'll be able to get their supplies out of the Gulf, and they'd take effective control of all oil and gas coming out of the Gulf. 

Targeting oil and gas complexes is a massive escalation and an act of utter stupidity.

Australia's Fuel Crisis

Australia are looking at rationing food as their supply of diesel starts to dry up.

What Now for Iran?

It appears Iran is settling in for a long war of attrition. Their drone and missile strikes have fallen away, but they're still continuing, albeit at a lower tempo. What I think they're now doing is setting out to cause enough disruption to effectively destroy the Gulf states, and humble Israel.

The Strait of Hormuz appears to be operating like a toll road. Iran are allowing through only those they approve of. Then, they have overland routes from China and Russia for resupplying its arms industry.

No uprising occurred amongst the people of Iran. This looks to have been a minority protesting, such as students, with no widespread support. That's disappointing and there appears no viable strategy for going in on the ground. 

Another angle relates to Iraq. Various militias aligned with Iran may now rise up. Thus, the US and Israel may have made a rod for their own backs.

All said, oil prices are likely to stay high for the foreseeable future.

Netanyahu's Disappearing Ring

OK, something is definitely up with Netanyahu:

Where is Netanyahu?

I've been ignoring the whole Netanyahu is dead or injured thing, but this video got my attention. I'm prepared to now accept that something is off when it comes to the leader of Israel. Proof of life is required.