People wondering why it is very hard to subjugate Iran need to consider its size. Iran is quite large and mountainous. No doubt they've dispersed their ordnance. It'd be almost impossible to find it, and their missiles and drones are launched from mobile units.
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| Iran v Europe |
Here's a quick outline of what some Asian countries are doing to ration fuel.
Here's my plan for sorting this:
New Zealand should start making lignite to diesel and urea (fertilizer). The feasibility studies have been done, and the resource exists in limitless quantities.
The following report is available on a NZ government department website. Make it happen NZ.
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/8fb7b2c240/liquid-fuels-from-lignite.pdf
Internationally, the demand for crude oil is increasing, at a time when many experts are predicting that the peak in oil production will occur sometime over the next 20 years. This combined with concerns about the security of oil supply, particularly with the current political instability in several oil producing regions, means that the price of oil has the potential to rise to unprecedented levels over the next two decades. New Zealand depends on imported oil for 99% [MED 2006] of its transportation fuels. If the cost of crude oil rises as predicted and the possibility of serious supply interruptions becomes more pressing, then alternatives need to be sought now to avoid serious transportation fuel shortages in the future.
I always say that given long enough to think about it, the US, all of Europe and Israel will come to the conclusion that it is China's fault. Convince me I'm wrong.
It looks like WWIII is about to start. Military strikes on Iran's oil and gas facilities may force China and India to join the conflict on the side of Iran. They need to do this, especially India, as they're already experiencing shortages and India, in particular, has a large population that needs gas to cook their food with.
Russia and North Korea could then follow. South Korea are now in dire peril. North Korean artillery can easily bombard Seoul, the capital of South Korea. I don't see how South Korea could hold out.
With China and India involved, they'll be able to get their supplies out of the Gulf, and they'd take effective control of all oil and gas coming out of the Gulf.
Targeting oil and gas complexes is a massive escalation and an act of utter stupidity.
Australia are looking at rationing food as their supply of diesel starts to dry up.
It appears Iran is settling in for a long war of attrition. Their drone and missile strikes have fallen away, but they're still continuing, albeit at a lower tempo. What I think they're now doing is setting out to cause enough disruption to effectively destroy the Gulf states, and humble Israel.
The Strait of Hormuz appears to be operating like a toll road. Iran are allowing through only those they approve of. Then, they have overland routes from China and Russia for resupplying its arms industry.
No uprising occurred amongst the people of Iran. This looks to have been a minority protesting, such as students, with no widespread support. That's disappointing and there appears no viable strategy for going in on the ground.
Another angle relates to Iraq. Various militias aligned with Iran may now rise up. Thus, the US and Israel may have made a rod for their own backs.
All said, oil prices are likely to stay high for the foreseeable future.
I've been ignoring the whole Netanyahu is dead or injured thing, but this video got my attention. I'm prepared to now accept that something is off when it comes to the leader of Israel. Proof of life is required.
Here's an idea, New Zealand should move to mop up all the money that will be fleeing the United Arab Emirates right now. All those seeking the tax-free life, don't like receiving messages on their phone telling them their friendly neighbourhood missile will be arriving shortly.
A few years ago I suggested NZ set up a tax-free zone in the East Cape. Let's do this now. For people from overseas, we could take part of the coast and designate it tax-free so long as they stay resident for 120+ days of the year (or something).
https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/07/make-east-cape-monaco.html
https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2018/06/making-east-cape-monaco.html
Oh no, going in on the ground in Iran? Iran is mountainous and contains 90 million people. This won't end well. And Afghanistan will be itching to get involved.
This video shows how an American bloke has his diesel engine running on any oil, check it out. I'm placing this here to motivate my fellow Kiwis to get in touch with their elected representatives, insisting they stop messing about, and treat the current fuel situation as the real crisis that it is.
Here's how the government can do this:
Iran has clearly prepared for this and are setting about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. They're being successful at it, and are now attacking tankers and oil transfer facilities in the region.
For Australia and New Zealand, this is becoming an existential crisis. Already, farms in remote rural locations in Australia are finding they cannot obtain diesel. Hardware stores have sold out of jerry cans as people stock up.
New Zealand is steadfastly blundering onward, their heads firmly in the sand. The country's leaders are woefully incompetent, it's like leaving a bunch of ten year-olds in charge. Here are some things to think about, diesel is essential to the nation, thus:
As a result of the disruption to LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf, Asia, in particular, is moving to energy security through coal.
Coal is the giant on the block, and always has been.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal/news/531727
Coal prices climbed above $140 per ton, hitting their highest levels since November 2024 as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and resulting disruptions significantly heightened global energy supply risks.
Oil also surged above $100 for the first time since 2022 after major Middle Eastern producers curtailed output as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut.
In addition, the shutdown of Qatar’s massive liquefied natural gas production has boosted demand for fuel switching in the power sector.
New Zealand and Australia rely on fertiliser coming out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict goes on much longer, their respective economies will be severely impacted.
Is this a wise move? China obtains most of its imported crude from Iran, while Australia relies on China to buy its output from its mines. Won't this aggressive act by Australia result in backlash from China?
Here's a rational explanation as to why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is NOT an apocalyptic crisis. Although I'd add that some regions will be far more seriously impacted than others. The Far East, South-east Asia and Oceania being top of that list. China has stopped exporting fuels, which further restricts supply to the region.
Something I overlooked is that fuel oil supplies for ships are being affected by the war in the Persian Gulf. The Middle East is a major supplier of the fuel oil required for ships, and Singapore is a major refueling point which imports its fuel oil from the Middle East. Fuel oil prices have therefore surged 30-40%, and supplies will run out toward the end of March.
The cost of goods will rise worldwide as shipping costs adjust upward, and some countries that rely on exports for their income may simply be unable to ship to their customers. Likewise, energy imports will be choked off.
Australia and New Zealand are two countries impacted, and the rest of the Far East as well.
The price of fuel oil has surged this week as the stalled tanker traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is tightening supplies of the fuel in Asia, the key bunkering hub for fuel oil used in ships.
The Middle East is a major global supplier of fuel oil, especially of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO). But the Iran war has all but halted traffic via the Strait of Hormuz, stranding supplies for Asia and its key bunkering hub of Singapore.
As a result, prices have soared and are set to continue rising, traders and analysts told Reuters on Friday.
