Iran Wins, US Defeated

If reports are to believed, big IF, then Iran is now one of the big four, and the big three of US, China and Russia have a new member. Iran has defeated the United States.

For a ceasefire to be called, Iran had ten key demands, and Donald Trump announced he's accepted all of them. This leaves Iran in complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf is now its lake.

The US defeat in Afghanistan was the biggest defeat of a western country in history, ancient or modern. Now, this surpasses that. But then, the ceasefire may end within 24 hours, who knows? One thing is for certain, countries are going to find it hard still as the oil isn't flowing yet, and it may take a year or two for flows to resume even if the will exists to make it so.

Update: thinking about this some more, this appears to be Iran's Battle of Britain moment. I'll explain, the BoB was a defensive action, with Britain's goal of avoiding outright defeat. The way the Germans saw it, they were simply trying to knock Britain out, then when they'd done that they turned around to deal with the bigger threat, Russia (then known as the USSR). Thus, Britain claims victory as they were still standing when the attacker quit. Germany, however, say they did not lose, they just changed priorities.

The reality was that Germany was losing aircraft at a rate where they could not replace them. Most losses were on the ground in takeoff and landing, in fact, not fighting in the air. If Germany had continued, they'd have simply run out of planes, while Britain's industry could replace theirs. The Germans badly underestimated the output of the British Midlands.

This appears to be a similar situation in the Gulf. The US lost 11 or so aircraft just rescuing one downed airman, and their bases have all been destroyed in the region. Their carrier strike group has had to retreat well into the Arabian Sea, well away from cruise missiles. Scuttlebutt says that Trump did launch an attack on Iran, in line with his ultimatum, but that every tomahawk cruise missile was taken out by Iran. He buckled after that, and I'm speculating he was told that the US was fast depleting its ordnance and that it couldn't be easily replaced. 

Israel has announced they do not consider their offensive in Lebanon as being covered by the ceasefire, and the Gulf states will be unhappy ending up effectively satraps of the new Iranian empire. Therefore, this ceasefire is unlikely to last any more than a few hours or days - we'll see.

And think, we have a Soccer World Cup coming up, that will be interesting. 

Theo Von Nails It

It was never Republicans vs Democrats, it was the war machine vs everyone:

What's Going On in Australia?

 Is a full fuel lockdown coming?

National Want to Lose the Election in 2026

The cockwomble National government of New Zealand, led by Christopher Luxon, a man who looks like a timeshare salesman from the 1990s, seems to have given up. No doubt they're all brushing up their CVs as they've now dropped to 26% in the latest poll. For any government, that's catastrophic. 

Luxon has dropped to 17% as the preferred prime minister. Coalition partner Winston Peters, may soon pass him. Luxon is a man who can never find his spine.

The fuel crisis has exposed National's Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, who can only say she understands the issues, will talk to all stakeholders, have reports done, and reports on those reports, but who never actually does anything. She's a classic duck-shoving middle manager. 

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10181-nz-national-voting-intention-march-2026

Reaction to Trump's Speech

 A quality rant this:

Update: Strait of Hormuz

The amount of oil and gas being carried through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, from an average of over a hundred tankers daily during February, down to an average of six tankers daily in March. However, there is a trend of some tankers running the strait by sticking close to the Omani shore, while others are paying the toll to Iran and going through the toll gate they've set up between Larak Island and Qeshm Island (not a literal toll gate, but a passage through which ships must travel).

Russian oil is back in the mix, too, and Southeast Asian refineries appear to be using this oil as additional feedstock.

What may happen is that the world gets to a point where the price of fuel is simply high all the time, with a new normal being that Iran has control of a huge chunk of global supply. 

Countries like Australia and New Zealand will have to suck this up, for now, but then move swiftly to self-sufficiency, as they both have the resources. They both lack the ability to process these resources, and so they must move to fully industrialise.

Australia's Military Compromised

I wondered how long it would take for the penny to drop. Without fuel, Australia won't be able to defend itself.

Reaction to Trump's Speech

Interesting initial reaction, I'll check over the next few hours whether the markets react positively or negatively.

Trump Addresses the Nation

I watched it live, but I have to confess I'm none the wiser. President Trump said what he'd already posted on social media, and left a lot up in the air. What, exactly, was that all about? 

Australia Allows Heavier Loads

It makes sense to allow trucks to carry more each load, it will save fuel, although roads will get knocked about more.

Australia Fuel Crisis, Food Shortages Loom?

With 25 million mouths to feed, how will Australia feed its people affordably if the diesel and fertiliser costs soar?

Australia and New Zealand Get Roasted

Deserved shellacking this:

For New Zealand, a whole series of decisions amounted to sabotage.

Fuel Crisis Needs Urgent Action

Both Australia's and New Zealand's governments refuse to take action. It is as if they want the countries to fail.

Can you ride a horse? I can.

Australia to Underwrite Extra Fuel Imports

Getting the idea New Zealand? Do something. 

No idea if this measure will help, but at least it's an attempt.

Australia's Fuel Crisis Is Real

Australia and New Zealand are so cooked. The people running things are morons on an epic scale. 

US Defeat?

The suggestion is that the US has used up its ordnance, especially its anti-missile defenses. That explains the sudden shift, from 'unconditional surrender' to now asking for diplomacy. Iran, for its part, seems to have more missiles and drones still. The drones are simple and cheap to make, and being made of balsa wood are very hard to detect with radar. 

Israel is vulnerable. They are small and present an easy target. Iran is not so vulnerable as they present a much larger target. I note that Iran's order of aerial attack is quite clever; to begin with they fired drones without warheads. Nevertheless, they had to be taken down at great expense. Then, gradually Iran ramped up, adding warheads to their drones, then increasing the size of warheads fired by missile. Thus, as Israel's defenses depleted, the weight delivered by Iran grew exponentially.

The uprising within Iran did not eventuate. There appears no groundswell of support for a revolution. 

The risk now is that the Persian Gulf may end up being Iran's lake. I read somewhere that the leaders of Kuwait and Bahrain have left their small principalities, with no immediate intention to return. It looks as if they know Iran has emerged the winner.

46 Days Left

New Zealand has 46 days of diesel left and has not taken the oil crisis seriously enough - yet. Meanwhile, the Philippines has declared a state of emergency with 45 days left.

Collapse of Australia Looms

Founder and CEO of Clime Investment Management, John Abernethy, explains where Australia is headed, given the course they're on. You might as well add New Zealand to the list, everything he says applies to that country as well.

How Some Countries Are Responding

Some countries are taking action, while others like New Zealand and Australia, have their heads in the sand:

Energy Lockdowns Coming?

This will be bigger than 2020. We are swiftly heading into energy lockdowns, as promoted by the likes of the WEF.

One possibility is they'll corral people into sectors. Initially, they'll call this a temporary measure to minimise fuel use. But, it'll become compulsory, and to access services your digital ID will be required.