Australia's One Nation Victory

While we were all studying the astounding victories of Reform and the Greens in the UK, Australia was having its own moment, leaving the plantation and voting in its first One Nation member to the federal House of Representatives. One Nation, under the leadership of its mercurial leader, Pauline Hanson, these days polls highly, often in second place. They're fast displacing the right-of-centre Liberal Party.

Pauline Hanson is an interesting figure. Personally, I cannot stand her voice, so I rarely listen to her. But she has stuck at it, never giving up. Finally, off the back of her own decades-long efforts, the party she created is getting traction. They're now a real force. They could become the government of Australia.

https://newsreel.com.au/article/government/one-nation-surge-is-now-being-taken-seriously/

One Nation’s surge can no longer be seen as a blip or an aberration.

As the results in the Farrer byelection showed, the right-wing populist party – which has been hovering on the fringes of Australian politics for 30 years – is now a serious electoral force.

While the byelection was considered likely to be a close contest between One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe, in the end voters delivered an easy win to Farley. His is the first One Nation victory in a federal House of Representatives seat.

UK Greens Crush Labour

Left-wing activist, Owen Jones, covers the extent of the Greens victory in the local elections just held in the UK. 

Owen Jones is accurate but maybe he doesn't quite understand the full extent of what happened. Labour finds itself isolated, with nowhere to call home. They've been attacked from two ends. Take voters in the North, many of whom ordinarily vote Labour. They voted Reform en masse. Then down South, the trendy champagne socialists who compost their kitchen waste and protest against Israel on the weekends, voted Greens. The breadth of the defeat is what is transformational. The new parties, no doubt, will have their struggles, but they now have a platform from which to grow. 

New Rugby 2026

Many may be aware that rugby union has many challenges currently, notably the drop off in audience. The problem as I see it is that the game has become boring, with frequent and unnecessary stoppages in play, and referees becoming too involved in the game. These referees are manipulating the outcome of matches. The spectators and wider audience can see this and turn off.

Here are some ideas to turn things around.

1. Play the game as four quarters of 20 minutes each, with slowdowns and other unnecessary stoppages penalised.

2. Allow unlimited substitutions and players may return so long as they haven't been sent off for foul play. Substitutions could be made during any pause in play.

3. The game is 15 vs 15 at all times. No yellow or red card. Players sent from the field for foul play are immediately excluded for the rest of the game, but may be replaced from the reserves. Teams only drop to fewer than 15 players on the field when they run out of reserves.

4. Scrums have to be set within 90 seconds, and failure to set the scrum results in a free kick (currently, the time frame is 30 seconds from when the referee sets the mark, but the referee may also call time off. My rule has no time off, just 90 seconds, as players can be replaced and return later at any time anyway, meaning time off is not necessary). 

5. Lineouts only occur when the ball goes out in general play and must be performed within 90 seconds. The 50:22 rule is scrapped.

6. Penalty restarts may be via a tap restart, scrum, kick for goal, or the ball is kicked out on the full. If the ball is kicked out on the full, then, as with rugby league, a tap kick restarts the game for the attacking team from where the ball went out (no lineouts off penalty kicks).

7. Phases of play cannot go beyond twelve consecutive rucks or mauls. On the twelfth phase the attacking team must do something with the ball or hand over possession.

8. Scoring; 5 points for a try, 1 point for a conversion, 2 points for a penalty kick or drop goal. The idea being it takes four kicks to better a converted try (currently, only three goals are worth more than a converted try). Conversions and penalty kicks must be taken within 90 seconds of the ball being placed.

9. Kicks from the 22 are replaced with a tap kick from the 22. Goal line drop-outs remain.

10. Kick-offs at the start and at half time are place kicks, not drop kicks (but cannot score points if the ball goes through the goal). Quarter time restarts occur at the place where play ceased, and restart via scrum, lineout, or tap kick.

11. Introduce synthetic turf. Modern synthetic turf is hard wearing and equalises teams, meaning home advantage isn't so pronounced. Modern turf is padded and cushions players from hard landings and friction burns are minimised by lightly spraying with water prior to games (mist rather than solid wetting). All the old criticisms of 'AstroTurf ' no longer apply.

12. Two referees should be used at the elite level, one leading, one trailing. No video referees, touch judges as now, immediate decisions.

13. Bonus point scrapped and 3 for the win, 1 for a draw after 10 minutes of extra time. If any team scores a try during extra time they win the game immediately, no further play. However, if either team kicks only a goal of any kind then play continues, giving the other side a chance to win the game with a try, or to kick for a draw. During extra time, any try trumps all kicks, so even if a team has three goals (6 points), one five point try results in victory. 

14. In knock-out playoffs; if the match remains a draw after extra time, then another 10 minutes is played with the first team to make any score being the victor.

My thinking here is to maximise spectator investment. They pay to see a contest, not see the game ruined by referees sending players off, or teams playing negatively to eke out a win. 

Reform UK and Greens Tsunami

A tidal wave has swept over the UK, with Reform and the Greens being the big winners. Reform gained control of 14 councils and had more than 1,400 councillors elected. The Greens now control five councils and they won two mayoral races. Both, prior to this election, were practically nowhere. Now, they'll both be part of the news cycle at the national and local level. 

I hope this kind of change will lead to something positive, such as rebuilding and replacing what is a broken country. The roads are rubbish, everything is falling apart, get on and reinstate services, get the job done. Then, when Labour are swept from office at the national level, get on and take control of the whole country. 

This sort of change is what is required Downunder in Australia and New Zealand. Both countries are mired in old thinking, with the right and left of both countries beholden to corporate interests. Hopefully, people will see what's happening in the UK and react. There are firm links with 'back home' and this message can get through.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2026/england/results

Election Storm in the UK

Nigel Farage's party, Reform UK, has pulled off a series of stunning victories in the recent local elections held in England, Scotland and Wales. The two big losers are the Conservatives and Labour. The Greens are on the rise, and the Liberal Democrats improved. The electoral landscape is now multi-polar, and the old left-right divide has been swept aside. 

For Reform and the Greens, they now have a firm launch pad for any General Election. 

Watch for panic from Labour. Their ineffective and rather loathsome leader, Keir Starmer, will be permanently looking over his shoulder from now on. 

Nigel Farage has proven to be very resilient.

The Kids Can't Read

This is America, but the English-speaking world is experiencing widespread illiteracy. The Latin world is fine; they still read. But we need to get children reading, and we need to worry less about feelings. Just read, anything.

Smuggling Diesel from Iran to Pakistan

The Iranians and Pakistanis are very resourceful and seem to love their Toyotas as much as Kiwi farmers do. As everyone must know by now, you cannot destroy a Toyota pickup truck.

More May Follow Spirit Airlines

Following the bankruptcy and immediate shutdown of Spirit Airlines in the US, Gary Leff has published the risk related to other US airlines that could follow. It is astonishing to see American Airlines on the list as they're one of the world's biggest airlines, with over 1,000 Airbus and Boeing aircraft.

https://viewfromthewing.com/more-airline-bankruptcies-may-be-coming-jetblue-and-frontier-face-the-highest-risk/

• JetBlue: greater than 75%
  
• Frontier: 45% – 50%
  
• Allegiant: 36.7%
  
• American: 2.9% – 15%
  
• Alaska: Less than 3%

Who Is Winning the US-Iran War?

A quick scorecard, winners and losers:

Winners

Iran - their oil revenues have increased since the outbreak of the war. According to the Wall Street Journal, they're now selling 985,000 barrels of oil per day to China via the rail corridor that runs through the Stans between Iran and China. The marshalling yards for this traffic sit within Turkmenistan, and that's where loads are taken off standard gauge and placed upon the old Soviet wide gauge track. The trains are about 50 wagons long, 66 tons each wagon, and each oil tank holds about 400-500 barrels. Iran charge China's 'teapot' refiners Brent + $1.50. This compares with volumes of about 1.38m bpd via the Strait of Hormuz before the war. Thus, Iran in revenue terms is raking in about the equivalent of 1.5m bpd levels from before the war. They knew they were going to be attacked. Leading up they were shipping a lot of crude and simply parking it out there on the water. The US then lifted sanctions on this oil and Iran profited. They must have laughed. Iran also has rail links with Russia, Pakistan, and via the Caspian Sea and into Russia's Volga-Don canal system and ultimately the Black Sea. Iran now has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, and it remains shut to those it considers its enemies. 

Israel - they are now the US's only remaining ally in the region. They would have noticed the rise of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and in particular, Saudi Arabia. These states have been selling their soft power, with Saudi Arabia using sports promotions like LIV Golf to sell themselves. Israel won't have been happy with this overall, and now they can sit back and watch these states distance themselves from the US.

Russia - they're happy with the high oil prices. They've shut down the pipeline from Kazakhstan to Germany, likely motivated by the incentive of lifting prices.

Losers

USA - their attack has resulted in a massive strategic defeat. They've compromised food security and the world economy generally. American farmers will be livid as the attack on Iran came just before planting - not good timing.

Gulf States - they were mistaken in thinking the US could protect them. Dubai may come back to an extent, but people will never forget, and zero tax doesn't help one bit when a bomb may land on your bonce.

Asia (apart from China) - all Asian countries have been compromised and they'll likely move toward greater independence and away from the US.

China - they'd prefer the Strait of Hormuz to open, for conflict to end. They won't be greatly adversely affected but given their merchant outlook, they'd profit from less conflict, not more.

Oceania - they stand to go out of existence if they don't quickly get their act together. 

Africa - famine is possible, and their oil fields and refineries are only just now being built. This war came at a bad time for them.

Europe - deindustrialisation has proven to be a fool's errand. They're badly exposed with high cost structures and with few allies.

North, South and Central America (apart from the US) - they've been compromised, but countries like Canada have gained from their own oil sales to Asia. The picture is patchy, but overall a loss.

The war has benefited very few interests, and harmed most. End the war now.

US Imposes 25% Tariffs on EU Cars and Trucks

If this kind of random imposition of tariffs continues, European manufacturers may simply decide to pack up and leave the US. It'd be a sensible move as they could write off the cost and avoid tax in their own countries.

Reliance on Fossil Fuels

Big Green capital interests will tell you fossil fuels have had their day, that solar, wind and tides will replace them as a source of energy.

What are the facts? Fossil fuels play a greater part in daily lives now than at any stage previously. Production is increasing with new oil and gas fields coming onstream, and new coal mines being opened up. 

With the Strait of Hormuz currently blockaded, with the US also blockading the blockade, this has resulted in a crisis of truly global proportions. And no amount of wind and solar can address the problem. That's because the world population has doubled over the last 50 years, and they require food. Farmers need urea fertiliser to grow crops efficiently, and that's fossil fuels. Those calling for a move away from fossil fuels are actually calling for depopulation. They prefer to talk about the environment, but opponents of fossil fuels are really against humanity.

See the graph below, fossil fuel consumption has increased eight-fold since 1950. This trend cannot and will not be reversed. 

Fossil Fuel Consumption

How a Ballerina Looks After Her Feet

Ever wondered how a ballerina looks after her feet? This video shows the amount of care one dancer gives them. Her dedication is commendable.

Oil Scarcity

Some appear to be getting it, finally. With the current oil crisis, we are not talking pricing, we are talking about the complete lack of something. 

World Weeks Away From Major Crisis

Is oil moving? No. The politicians do not seem to realise that in situations such as this, where there is a complete lack of something, markets don't really work. Nothing is still nothing. 

Look at it like this; if you're dying of thirst in the desert, what the futures market is saying about what a glass of water is worth will do nothing of real value, you will still die of thirst as you have no water.

UAE Leaving OPEC

Apart from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the next biggest thing to happen as a result of the US-Iran war is the sudden announcement of the United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC.

When the Strait opens up again, and the oil is flowing freely, this move will have two effects; the first being to lower oil prices as the UAE will start pumping oil well beyond its current OPEC quota limits. They'll do this to help pay for damage caused by the war. A consequential effect may then be to challenge the viability of two industries, fracking and electric vehicles. The latter will only happen if the price of oil comes down by a lot, which it can do, but it is a wait and see.

Right now though, with the Strait still closed, we have an immediate supply crisis, that remains unchanged.

Looming Food Crisis

Make no mistake, this is serious.

But rejoice, the New Zealand government has secured nine days of diesel. Yeah, they really think that will make a difference. 

The World as a Globe, Not Flat Map

Have you ever looked at the planet from the perspective of the globe, rather than a flat map? As you may be aware, depending on the way a flat map is presented, we get a skewed presentation. It can be useful to see things as you'd see them from space.

Here's a link to exactly that, a 3D interactive globe: https://earth3dmap.com/3d-globe/

I often say that Western Australia and New Zealand should merge as they're the only sane people in the Southern Hemisphere. Looking at this map, a journey by sea from Bluff, NZ is almost a straight run to Perth, Western Australia. 

Action Required Now, Don't Wait

It is obvious the conflict in the Persian Gulf is not going to end anytime soon. Even if it does end today, oil flows will be down for the next year or two. That's because oil shore facilities have been damaged and will take time to repair, thus, the volume of oil that can be loaded will be well down. Additionally, oil storage facilities are nearing capacity and when these are maxed out, oil wells will start shutting down. Starting things up again is always a problem, often taking months, even years.

Both Australia and New Zealand need to take action now. Start building capacity of its own. Australia can build more refineries, and NZ should begin its stalled lignite to diesel project in Southland. Additionally, both should be looking to contract alternative supplies. Australia could try buying output from Uganda through the Tanzanian port of Tanga. This oil will become available later this year. New Zealand should see if it can buy finished fuels from the new giant Dangote refinery in Nigeria. Whatever options are available, both countries should be working at fever pitch, night and day to solve the problem.

What's particularly weird is that NZ still exports its high grade, light and sweet crude, while its own diesel tanks are about to run out. NZ has no plans underway to distill this easily processed crude into diesel. The NZ government is that stupid.

Both Australia and New Zealand are like possums caught in the headlights, they appear bereft of ideas.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/3/4/producers-face-storage-crunch-as-hormuz-shutdown-traps-middle-east-crude/#:~:text=In%20theory,%20the%20Arab%20producers,be%20extended%20by%20a%20week.

“If oil producers reach ‘tank tops’ for lack of export outlets, then they have to curtail output,” Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst of geospatial analytics company Kayrros, said in a post on LinkedIn.

Trump to Hand Falklands to Milei?

Upset that the United Kingdom has not joined the US war with Iran, it is being reported that Donald Trump may withdraw his support for the UK holding the Falkland Islands, effectively handing the islands to Argentina. Readers may remember that back in the early 1980's, Argentina invaded the Falklands and the UK went to war over it, and won the islands back. 

A bit of history; the Falklands are part of Britain, and Argentina has no rightful claim over the islands. The islands have also played a pivotal role in the Royal Navy's control of the South Atlantic. The British Empire, at one point, controlled all of the main pinch points, the North and South Atlantic, the Mediterranean via Gibraltar, Malta and Cyprus, the Strait of Malacca at Singapore, Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden and access to the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, Cape of Good Hope, and the Tasman Sea through to the Southern Ocean. There was nowhere for an enemy to go, literally nowhere. 

So, the British have some serious soul searching to do. Are they going to grow a spine or shrink to nothingness?

Emergency Planning for New Zealand

Forget raindrops, diesel is running low. New Zealand has 21 days onshore, in tanks, right now. Three weeks and if any of the ships inbound don't arrive, the country runs out and the economy fails.

I looked things up and found the country can survive, kind of. NZ has about 100 steam locomotives, 20 of which are in regular use and ready to go. These operate on heritage lines and do tourist excursions. They may have to go back to work. Likewise, traction engine operators may be called upon.

The central section of the North Island main trunk railway line is electrified, thanks to Rob Muldoon's Think Big scheme, and another Think Big was NZ's conversion of LPG to urea fertiliser, which supplies a third of urea required by farmers. 

So, NZ will not come to a complete standstill, and farms will still be able to operate, but farmers may need to get back on the horse. Coal is still plentiful, it may come in handy.

NZ has a lot of wood waste, and this can be converted to biodiesel. However, the problem with biodiesel is it has a higher freezing point, so cannot be used in colder areas; think central North Island and the South Island's alpine areas and Otago and Southland. 

When food arrives in cities, electric vehicles will be needed to pick goods up and move them to warehouses and shops. Some electric buses could have their seats removed and be used as vans.

Given how stretched things will be, the country will need to work 24/7. To move around within cities, people will have to ride bicycles and electric vehicles. Many buses are now electric and they will still be working. However, as diesel vehicles are needed to maintain the electrical infrastructure, there will be more frequent outages, and people will die as back-up generators in hospitals will have nothing in the tank, or only 3 hours with refueling delayed beyond that. Fire engines may be unavailable if the country runs out of diesel. There are countless ways NZ will be adversely affected by the loss of diesel, these are just a few examples.

NZ needs to start taking this seriously. I have a plan and this should have been done already: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Update: The NZ government is incompetent. To think they're the party of the farmers! And yet they've kicked farmers in the teeth. Will farmers realise they're in an abusive relationship, or will they, as always, go back to their abuser, believing this time will be different?

Update: Reuters is reporting that Russia, from the 1st of May, is going to stop the transfer of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via a pipeline that runs through their territory. This will put more pressure on existing fuel supplies as Germany looks to replace this lost supply with other sources of crude being imported by ship. NZ is at the end of the supply chain and has no leverage due to the small quantities required, thus, it is likely to be further squeezed. The NZ government appears oblivious.