About time a leader in New Zealand called out Australia on their despicable practise of exporting its criminals to NZ.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119916746/jacinda-arderns-confrontation-of-scomo-is-a-turning-point-in-transtasman-relations
February 28, 2020
February 27, 2020
Olympics 2020
Spare a thought for those athletes preparing for the Olympics in Tokyo. At this stage it looks like the Olympics may need to be postponed due to COVID-19, or perhaps a decentralised model introduced. I hope it doesn't come to that, but it is a watch and wait at this stage. Previously, the Olympics has only been called off due to war.
February 24, 2020
COVID-19 could be Election Decider
New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is allowing students from China into the country to start their studies for 2020. This is a big mistake in my opinion, as the virus is just beginning to spread uncontrollably. It looks as if the NZ government has buckled under pressure from China. Letting in so many students all at once is almost a guarantee someone will bring the virus with them.
With a general election due in a few months; if NZ gets the virus as a result of the PM's decision, that'll be it, she'll be the former prime minister of New Zealand, of that I have no doubt.
With a general election due in a few months; if NZ gets the virus as a result of the PM's decision, that'll be it, she'll be the former prime minister of New Zealand, of that I have no doubt.
February 23, 2020
Harry and Meghan - Who Do They Think They Are?
The latest statement from the Sussex Royals can be found here: https://sussexroyal.com/spring-2020-transition/
This has the hand of Meghan Markle all over it, I don't believe for a minute that Harry would agree to put out such a statement. It sounds slightly argumentative or adversarial. If you want to get yourself offside with the Queen, then this is the way to go about it.
Where will this end? Who knows, but it can't end well. This isn't Hollywood, the Queen is above the law, and we're talking sovereignty here, not who gets to play the starring role in a movie. This is certainly going to heat up, watch this space.
This has the hand of Meghan Markle all over it, I don't believe for a minute that Harry would agree to put out such a statement. It sounds slightly argumentative or adversarial. If you want to get yourself offside with the Queen, then this is the way to go about it.
Where will this end? Who knows, but it can't end well. This isn't Hollywood, the Queen is above the law, and we're talking sovereignty here, not who gets to play the starring role in a movie. This is certainly going to heat up, watch this space.
February 16, 2020
Harry and Meghan - The Odds
Here we go, my odds quoted on how long it will take for Harry Mountbatten-Windsor (known or styled as the Duke of Sussex) to break up with the actress known as Meghan Markle (styled these days as the Duchess of Sussex):
The above returns are based on $1.00 dollar going in, (eg) if the couple stay together more than 4 years but less than 5, the return on $1 would be $100. I haven't quoted a figure on the 3-4 year range as I figure if they get that far from the date of this post then they'll likely make the 4 year mark. And yes the clock starts ticking from the date of this post. See how right I am. And my readers will have noticed I've got this wrong before.
- Less than 5 years but more than 4: $100.00
- Less than 3 years but more than 2: $ 5.00
- Less than 2 years but more than 1: $ 1.10
- Less than 1 year $ 1.50
The above returns are based on $1.00 dollar going in, (eg) if the couple stay together more than 4 years but less than 5, the return on $1 would be $100. I haven't quoted a figure on the 3-4 year range as I figure if they get that far from the date of this post then they'll likely make the 4 year mark. And yes the clock starts ticking from the date of this post. See how right I am. And my readers will have noticed I've got this wrong before.
February 14, 2020
Coronavirus COVID-19
A surprising number of people around town are saying this new virus is the result of a mistake or leak at a Chinese biological weapons lab. It kind of resonates, strange that this thing just popped up. What do you think?
February 12, 2020
Complete Failure of NZ's Electoral System
Back in 1996 New Zealand ditched its traditional first-past-the-post electoral system, and put in its place mixed-member proportional (MMP). There can be no doubt; in a year when NZ has its eighth MMP general election, the system has been proven an outstanding failure.
How did this happen? Why did this happen? The answer to that can be found in the way MMP is structured. MMP is based on the system they have in Germany. It was used there to prevent one party coming to power. You may recall Germany's troubled past, and the rise there of a genocidal regime which resulted in the holocaust and WWII. But NZ doesn't have that kind of background, it didn't need a system to prevent what happened in Germany happening in Aotearoa.
It gets worse, given NZ's small size, the type of electoral and regional diversity Germany has, doesn't exist in NZ. Oh, I hear you say, yes it does. Err, I reply, no it doesn't, one region doesn't go to war with another and NZ doesn't have principalities. You get the idea.
So NZ embraces MMP and things...don't change that much. NZ was assured the advantage of MMP was it would deliver majority governments (where the government commands 50% or more of the popular vote). It didn't happen, what happened is NZ still received minority governments, except many of its representatives had never, could never win an electorate seat. That's the reality. And politicians who lose their electorate seat, come back in off the party list, they get to keep their jobs. It's like the cat came back, it wouldn't stay away.
Not only that, but voters never get what they voted for. The election is more like a beauty contest, you vote for whoever takes your fancy and trust them to deliver something in coalition negotiations. And what you do receive is likely to be nothing.
Then in 2017 things turned worse. The coalition between Labour and NZ First actually had fewer votes than the Opposition. Incredible but true, the coalition is propped up by the Greens, who get a pay-off in the form of ministerial positions, but avoid accountability by actually being in the government with their feet under the Cabinet table (putting a bob each way in effect).
Now the latest polling has the Greens on the precipice, just 20,000 votes away from failing to make the 5% threshold as they cannot win an electorate seat. NZ First are polling well under the 5% and they may fail to get a seat (they also have none at present). NZ has in a very short space of time, found itself right back where it was with first-past-the-post, in a close head-to-head contest, Labour vs National.
What may result, and is quite likely in fact, is one of the two will govern NZ alone, no need for a coalition agreement, and after receiving far fewer than 50% support. Where to after that? Over time I predict a splintering of political support after this period of consolidation.
To understand what I'm banging on about, consider the supermarket aisle and the soft drink selection (soda or pop for those in North America). In the early days selection may have been simple and purely price driven. That's where NZ is right now with MMP. Then as tastes change and competition heats up, new brands emerge to compete for shelf space. Now when you head down that aisle the consumer is barraged with choices. This is what I believe will happen under MMP in NZ after the price or value driven phase.
That final stage presents real dangers as we're not really talking about consumer choice. We're talking democracy, freedom Westminster-style and it could be lost. Here's how this could happen, admittedly this is more speculative, there are far too many permutations to be accurate, but read on:
1. Phase one; multiple brands with at least a seat or 5% support are far more valuable. It makes sense to segment the market, by region and political belief; town vs country, christian vs atheist, environmentalists vs industrialists - ripping the country apart - you get the idea.
2. Phase two; fifth columnists are more valuable than consensus builders. Wreckers trump builders. Reverse mergers can occur whereby party faithful from one party join the enemy and wreck the other party from within. (There is no law in NZ saying an individual cannot belong to more than one party, although most parties have their own rules preventing it. It's hard to stop spies, and in time will become impossible).
3. Phase three; secret coalition deals end up with the elite running everything. Voters will not know if a secret deal exists or not. Voters will choose a brand to their taste, but later find that party is loyal to another party altogether. Imagine buying cherry Coke only to find it turned into classic Coke. This is a distinct possibility in this MMP environment.
It's all very undemocratic and I predict it will spell the end of NZ. It will pull itself apart, critical infrastructure will be ignored in order to chase the latest fad, defence will be ignored as it offers no immediate pay-off. In the end NZ will be annexed by Australia as it can't afford to have such a weak southern neighbour.
And how soon will this happen. Originally I thought this would be in the lifetime of my grandchildren. But things are happening so fast now, I think it may be in my lifetime. Not that long then.
How did this happen? Why did this happen? The answer to that can be found in the way MMP is structured. MMP is based on the system they have in Germany. It was used there to prevent one party coming to power. You may recall Germany's troubled past, and the rise there of a genocidal regime which resulted in the holocaust and WWII. But NZ doesn't have that kind of background, it didn't need a system to prevent what happened in Germany happening in Aotearoa.
It gets worse, given NZ's small size, the type of electoral and regional diversity Germany has, doesn't exist in NZ. Oh, I hear you say, yes it does. Err, I reply, no it doesn't, one region doesn't go to war with another and NZ doesn't have principalities. You get the idea.
So NZ embraces MMP and things...don't change that much. NZ was assured the advantage of MMP was it would deliver majority governments (where the government commands 50% or more of the popular vote). It didn't happen, what happened is NZ still received minority governments, except many of its representatives had never, could never win an electorate seat. That's the reality. And politicians who lose their electorate seat, come back in off the party list, they get to keep their jobs. It's like the cat came back, it wouldn't stay away.
Not only that, but voters never get what they voted for. The election is more like a beauty contest, you vote for whoever takes your fancy and trust them to deliver something in coalition negotiations. And what you do receive is likely to be nothing.
Then in 2017 things turned worse. The coalition between Labour and NZ First actually had fewer votes than the Opposition. Incredible but true, the coalition is propped up by the Greens, who get a pay-off in the form of ministerial positions, but avoid accountability by actually being in the government with their feet under the Cabinet table (putting a bob each way in effect).
Now the latest polling has the Greens on the precipice, just 20,000 votes away from failing to make the 5% threshold as they cannot win an electorate seat. NZ First are polling well under the 5% and they may fail to get a seat (they also have none at present). NZ has in a very short space of time, found itself right back where it was with first-past-the-post, in a close head-to-head contest, Labour vs National.
What may result, and is quite likely in fact, is one of the two will govern NZ alone, no need for a coalition agreement, and after receiving far fewer than 50% support. Where to after that? Over time I predict a splintering of political support after this period of consolidation.
To understand what I'm banging on about, consider the supermarket aisle and the soft drink selection (soda or pop for those in North America). In the early days selection may have been simple and purely price driven. That's where NZ is right now with MMP. Then as tastes change and competition heats up, new brands emerge to compete for shelf space. Now when you head down that aisle the consumer is barraged with choices. This is what I believe will happen under MMP in NZ after the price or value driven phase.
That final stage presents real dangers as we're not really talking about consumer choice. We're talking democracy, freedom Westminster-style and it could be lost. Here's how this could happen, admittedly this is more speculative, there are far too many permutations to be accurate, but read on:
1. Phase one; multiple brands with at least a seat or 5% support are far more valuable. It makes sense to segment the market, by region and political belief; town vs country, christian vs atheist, environmentalists vs industrialists - ripping the country apart - you get the idea.
2. Phase two; fifth columnists are more valuable than consensus builders. Wreckers trump builders. Reverse mergers can occur whereby party faithful from one party join the enemy and wreck the other party from within. (There is no law in NZ saying an individual cannot belong to more than one party, although most parties have their own rules preventing it. It's hard to stop spies, and in time will become impossible).
3. Phase three; secret coalition deals end up with the elite running everything. Voters will not know if a secret deal exists or not. Voters will choose a brand to their taste, but later find that party is loyal to another party altogether. Imagine buying cherry Coke only to find it turned into classic Coke. This is a distinct possibility in this MMP environment.
It's all very undemocratic and I predict it will spell the end of NZ. It will pull itself apart, critical infrastructure will be ignored in order to chase the latest fad, defence will be ignored as it offers no immediate pay-off. In the end NZ will be annexed by Australia as it can't afford to have such a weak southern neighbour.
And how soon will this happen. Originally I thought this would be in the lifetime of my grandchildren. But things are happening so fast now, I think it may be in my lifetime. Not that long then.
Low-scoring NBA Game
Finally, we have seen a regular season NBA game where the result seems to reflect a genuine basketball score. Charlotte Hornets beat the Detroit Pistons 87-76. I'm assuming that defense took precedence, as it should. These type of games are rare these days, with shooters, and the referees that protect them, holding sway.
February 05, 2020
More Gloom
Adding to my previous post, New Zealand is now impacted in the education sector. Up to a half of all international full fees paying students in the country come from China. For now that has all stopped with many students stranded, having paid for courses and accommodation but unable to travel. I think we can safely say that NZ will be experiencing a recession very soon, as well as the rest of the world.
February 04, 2020
Doom
I've been a prophet of doom for some time now, mainly because the world economy has just been bumping along the bottom. Now the real slowdown has started, kicked off by this new virus from China, called the Coronavirus.
In NZ this has had the immediate effect of shutting down tourism, but also log exports. That's because there's no-one in China at work ready to handle the shipments. Expect this situation to worsen across a whole range of goods.
Maybe people will wake up and stop relying on China for everything. If we had our own industry, such as milling our own timber, then this kind of event would have a minimal effect.
In NZ this has had the immediate effect of shutting down tourism, but also log exports. That's because there's no-one in China at work ready to handle the shipments. Expect this situation to worsen across a whole range of goods.
Maybe people will wake up and stop relying on China for everything. If we had our own industry, such as milling our own timber, then this kind of event would have a minimal effect.
February 02, 2020
Australia Bushfire Sun
The sun setting tonight in Christchurch, NZ is tinged with the colour orange, the result of the smoke from the Australia bushfires. I've never seen this before and thought to take a pic:
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| Sun Setting in Christchurch NZ, coloured orange by smoke from Australia bushfires |