It appears Iran is settling in for a long war of attrition. Their drone and missile strikes have fallen away, but they're still continuing, albeit at a lower tempo. What I think they're now doing is setting out to cause enough disruption to effectively destroy the Gulf states, and humble Israel.
The Strait of Hormuz appears to be operating like a toll road. Iran are allowing through only those they approve of. Then, they have overland routes from China and Russia for resupplying its arms industry.
No uprising occurred amongst the people of Iran. This looks to have been a minority protesting, such as students, with no widespread support. That's disappointing and there appears no viable strategy for going in on the ground.
Another angle relates to Iraq. Various militias aligned with Iran may now rise up. Thus, the US and Israel may have made a rod for their own backs.
All said, oil prices are likely to stay high for the foreseeable future.
It makes sense that Jeffrey Epstein had deep Russian links. A lot of Soviet Jews emigrated to Israel after its creation in the late 1940's, thus, there are established relationships between Israel and Russia, at least at the business level.
Lawrence Wilkerson points out that what the US and Europe have done is essentially battle harden Russia. This was an incredibly stupid thing to do. I point out that the last time Russia really got on a roll, they took Paris in 1814.
They do reveal themselves in the end, don't they! Former New Zealand Prime Ministers, John Key and Helen Clark are in Beijing at the moment, partying with all the other bad-boy leaders. Now we know who these two were really working for.
Study the photograph, John Key is on the left, while Helen Clark is on the right, both I've marked with an arrow.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard called for several Obama administration officials to face criminal prosecution for participating in a “treasonous conspiracy” surrounding the 2016 election on Friday afternoon, the latest example of the Trump administration targeting critics of the president.
In a newly declassified report, Gabbard on Friday alleged the officials “manipulated and withheld” key intelligence from the public related to the possibility of Russian interference in the election.
Before you dismiss this too quickly, here's an American lawyer outlining exactly how, years on people can still be charged:
A bit of prejudice here and huge generalisations, but today I was explaining to someone the situation with Iran. In the last 25 years they've developed a lot. Everyone remembers the 1980's, but that's not Iran today. All those old warmongers are retired or long since passed away.
I explained it like this: Iran looks at its neighbours, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan can be an exercise in trying to get along at the best of times. Pakistan are OK but a bit of a problem too. Armenia shares very little in common, and Azerbaijan relations are frosty as Iran competes for the Caspian Sea against them. Turkey is distrusted, but Iran has grudging respect and needs them for stuff. Iraq is a cousin, maybe even a half-brother, the border is a colonial invention.
Of the major powers, China is a long way away and a source of nice food and cheap stuff, especially electronics. But they're too far away and too different to be fully trusted. Russians are not liked at all and deeply distrusted. Even more hated are the British, they are despised. How so? Look back at the Great Game played out throughout the 1800's. The two Great Powers competed for the region. Britain came out of it controlling Persia, now known as Iran (Afghanistan was found to be uncontrollable). In the early 20th Century, Britain formed the Anglo-Persian Oil Company and began stealing their oil. That company is today branded as BP - you may have heard of it.
But Americans, Iranians quite like them. They hate their government but they like their people. That's why Iranians when moving overseas head to Los Angeles. See Shahs of Sunset as a reality TV show looking at the phenomenon. It was hilarious, almost as good as the Kardashians.
Basically, Iran would like to be left alone, and then they'd start buying American stuff. That's because Americans tend to make stuff that works and it almost always turns up on time. Think Boeing and Caterpillar tractors.
Long term, how do Iranians see themselves living? Deep down I believe they desire to be Italy, just not the religion. So, they'd end up living like Istanbul instead.
Anyway, the better approach for the US is to bring Israel to heel and the US start doing business with Iran.
Looking at the two belligerents, many don't seem to understand the size disparity between the two, Israel has a population of 10 million, while Iran a population of 91 million.
In terms of geographic size, here's a few images to convey scale:
Firstly, Israel if it was an island west of France, and north of Spain in the Bay of Biscay:
Then Iran if it was overlaid Western Europe, it would stretch from Croatia and Slovenia, across Western Europe, taking in most of Germany, northern France, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, England, Wales and Ireland:
And if Iran was overlaid the 48 contiguous states of the US:
It becomes obvious that defeating Iran is not a minor exercise, and probably not possible. A war with Iran could also close the Straits of Hormuz, shutting down the supply of oil to much of Southeast Asia and the Far East, but not China. That's because the Iran-China overland corridor is now fully operational and oil from Iran can go via rail to China, arriving much sooner than by sea, and without the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca as pinch points.
The way I see this; a strike on Iran is an act of self-harm. The cost to the western world and its allies would be major, possibly introducing a Depression, while China and Iran would just continue on. Russia appears to be sitting there watching things evolve and rubbing their hands together.
The thinking now is the US will strike Iran this weekend. Don't do it.
The US is romancing Russia in its supposed rare earth resource deal with Ukraine. That's because, the US, Canada and Australia already have proven reserves waiting to go ahead (and which don't need discovering), while it is Russia that needs mining technology and capital from the US:
It is economically counterproductive in the extreme to propose wasting American public capital on Ukrainian mineral riches’ discovery and development when American, Canadian, and Australian deposits simply await government approval to go ahead.
The sole area of advantage to the U.S. that the Ukrainian mineral story supports is a political one, and the target isn’t Ukraine. It’s Russia, which has a bad case of the resource curse. Its economy is dependent on oil produced in fields developed by guess-which-country, but has vast known mineral wealth undeveloped due to Russia’s long history of not allowing the free market to operate, and so discouraging private development.
US Vice President, JD Vance has called out the European elites for their rank hypocrisy while speaking at the Munich Security Conference. I particularly enjoyed his mention of these elites - people I call the princes of Europe - fearing their own people. He nailed it. He also nailed it when mentioning that face of corporate Green interests, Greta Thunberg.
I believe we are witnessing a new Yalta Agreement moment. In 1945, three powers met at Yalta and divided up post-war Europe. Attendees present were Winston Churchill, FDR and Stalin. Now, in 2025 Britain is no longer invited. Europe's fate is for the US and Russia to decide.
The move to shut down the US aid programme does look dictatorial. My question is related to Elon Musk: who elected him? Elon Musk is not the entrepreneur he's touted as being. He's an invention of the US federal government and its spending, without which he'd be penniless. Not only that, he makes the world's worst car, Tesla, and rockets that are unreliable. For the latter, and an example of best practise he needs to take a trip to Russia, and for the former a trip to Japan.
I find myself agreeing with about 50% of what Donald Trump is doing. However, don't his recent moves look like Russia collusion? If you look back to just before last year's election, who stood isolated in the world? That would be Russia, with only a few close allies; namely, China, Iran, North Korea and Belarus.
Now, Donald Trump is trying to upset all of America's closest allies; Mexico, Canada, and the EU. If you were Vladimir Putin, wouldn't you be dancing a jig right now? I think so. Then, Elon Musk has close links to China and het sets out to destroy US federal government institutions. Uhm...hellooo.
The best explanation I've seen of recent events in Syria, is it was about the natural gas resources of the Persian Gulf. There were two proposals for pipelines to Europe; one was to take gas from Iran, through Iraq, then Syria, and then under the sea to Greece. The other was to establish a pipeline from Qatar, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and then to Bulgaria.
Assad favoured the Iranian pipeline, while his adversaries backed that from Qatar. Clearly, Assad chose the wrong option. From a business standpoint, both proposals lower the cost of gas in Europe as they avoid using tankers, and cut out Russia as a source of supply.
Meanwhile, Russia has won in Ukraine, so they give up Syria and take a large chunk of the former. Zelensky will be fuming. Russia has been working on building up in Libya, and so they'll presumably move their presence in the Med to that country, and gain a better location, being able to effectively cut the sea in half, rather the way Britain did when it controlled Malta.
I have noticed the propaganda news pieces coming out of Syria, they are laughable; al Jazeera are particularly bad, anyone would think the new regime in Syria were choir boys and everything is sweetness and light.
It does look as if the Assad regime has come to an end. Russia, Iran and Turkiye are having talks and this does have the appearance of organising a change of government. Assad visited Moscow recently, and it may be at that meeting he was told his reign was over.
I also note the columns of rebels and the swift approaches to relatively undefended cities. They are sitting ducks while moving and yet Russia has not touched them.
This is interesting, change of government in the region is chaotic, unlike the West which uses rigged elections (see what I did there?).
The timing does appear rather interesting - to say the least. With only a few weeks to go until Donald Trump is sworn in, suddenly the rebels in Syria rise up. Is this just coincidence, or is the Biden regime backing these groups? The main goal would probably be to avoid defense spending cuts.
This is very dangerous, because Russia has its naval base on the Mediterranean coast of Syria at Tartus. There is no way Russia will give this up, they'll go all-in to keep this presence in the Med.
Russian president, Vladimir Putin has arrived in Vietnam for a state visit, after visiting and signing a defence arrangement with North Korea earlier. All this does have an ominous look to it as Putin is visiting those countries Russia has supported militarily during previous wars.
Dominic Cummings puts the reality of where the West is at right now, facing a stronger Russia as a result of the war, and in a closer relationship with China. I've said this all along, and here we are:
I'm convinced that Washington DC and NATO have no idea of what, exactly, Russia is capable of. The people now in charge have no understanding of what an out of control Russian army is like. Keep poking the bear, and you'll find out.
Someone seems to have sat down France's President with the Napoleon complex, Emmanuel Macron and explained to him that NATO is not going to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Word is that Ukraine is now at 30% of nominal strength and could implode any day. As I said before, watch for Zelensky and the Ukrainian cabal making a run for it. When this happens, Ukraine will fall in less than a week.
