SEC Settlement with Musk

In the settlement with Elon Musk, the SEC has arranged some adult supervision for the now former chairman of Tesla. Good.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-settlement-forces-tesla-to-find-elon-musk-some-adult-supervision-2018-09-29

SEC Goes After Elon Musk

Great news, the SEC is going after Elon Musk

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/09/27/sec-charges-elon-musk-tesla-over-tweets-take-company-private/1447172002/

As readers of my blog will have observed, I think Musk is something of a joke. I wouldn't trust him with a fountain pen, let alone a large company.

See also;

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2018/08/azealia-banks-busts-elon-musk.html

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/11/elon-musks-electric-truck.html

https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/01/tesla-cars-bad-customer-service.html

Labour's Oil and Gas Decision Very Naive

We are now seeing New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern's major weakness. She's good at media stuff, smiling and looking pleasant but when it gets hard and the issues are deep, she can't handle it. All she thinks about is whether the decision will be popular or not. How do I know this is how she thinks? She's got a team on Twitter constantly saying exactly that. Banning oil and gas exploration will be seen as widely popular they say. There is no evidence for this thinking mind you, but that's obviously how she thinks.

Thing is, we're talking real-world stuff here. This is playing for keeps, decisions have consequences. And with some decisions it doesn't matter whether they're popular or not, they just have to be taken.

A hard decision would be to embrace the oil and gas exploration industry and I'll tell you why: it has to do with sovereign risk. Since the Second World War, NZ has begged oil companies and their investors to come to NZ. Note I say begged. The world is a big place and these investors could go anywhere, but a few listened and they turned up. They'll now be regretting they did.

When that money departs, it will never return. Investors have memories and they won't forgive easily. In future they'll say thanks but no thanks. That is if they even answer the call. And don't think this rebuff will be limited to just oil and gas. There will be spillover into other sectors as well.

When the next financial crisis hits, NZ will be left swinging in the breeze. It is that serious, I find it hard to believe Labour would be that naive. Even if Labour reverse their decision, harm has already been done. The question also needs to be asked, why did Winston Peters and NZ First form a coalition with such fools? Was it so personal with National that Peters was prepared to sacrifice the whole economy? It seems so.

Portfolio Performance

The following portfolio provides ample evidence of the robustness of my investment approach. Sadly, I don't think many have checked it out. Why do people chase rainbows and the latest bitcoin nonsense yet ignore solid stocks like these?

Check out the portfolio here...https://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521

Companies included in this portfolio:

American Railcar
Caterpillar
Emerson Electric
Federal Signal
Oshkosh Truck
Paccar
Freightcar America
Trinity Industries and note the Arcosa spin-off distribution to stock holders https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180515006540/en/Trinity-Industries-Introduces-Spin-off-Company-Arcosa-Announces and check this analysis which sounds balanced https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180716-trinity-industries-inc-spin-entity-look-overly-promising

NZ National Party and the Housing Crisis

What a scandal, it turns out I was right and the New Zealand National party really do hate poor people. According to the Salvation Army, National were actively trying to destroy the public's faith in state housing.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/09/dodgy-meth-tests-an-excuse-to-ridicule-state-housing-tenants.html

Compensation has been promised to those affected, the amount sounds derisory if you ask me...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/107225424/housing-nz-to-compensate-800-tenants-over-bogus-meth-testing

Harvey Weinstein

I've just seen the video of Harvey Weinstein with one of his accusers. Yeah, he's being very creepy.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/harvey-weinstein-video-shows-movie-mogul-caressing-rape-accuser-melissa-thompson/

Queen Sugar

I've just started watching the second season of Queen Sugar. I like the show but I have two critical observations. The first is that the whole idea seems very similar to the Australian drama McLeod's Daughters.

McLeod's Daughters started as a TV movie in 1996. It was about two half-sisters inheriting their father's farm in outback Australia. They decide to keep it and run the place themselves. It became a television series in 2001. Doesn't this sound like Queen Sugar? In that show two daughters along with a brother (who is never able to do anything right), decide to take on their father's sugar cane farm after he suddenly dies. That's kind of the same framework isn't it?

The second criticism is the kind of farming decisions they make. It's not at all like farming. Now I guess the farm is just the backdrop but they could at least make an attempt. In the first episode of season 2, Ralph Angel is wrestling with his tractor and gets a lesson in depreciation from his well-heeled sister. Suitably put down, Ralph Angel sulks some more. Except neither are right. That's right, you would not go and shell out for a flash tractor for only 800 acres. Likewise you don't go throwing money down a hole on some old worn-out wreck.

What they'd do is set about finding a bargain, how many hours a week would the tractor do and what kind of tractor is best suited, with the hours in it to at least get through two seasons. Then go and find that tractor, scouring the state and neighbouring states as well. Never going to auctions as you'll only find junk there, only dealing with dealers of sound reputation, or buy privately from those who can produce the maintenance receipts. Do the oil checks, engine, transmission etc., then buy at the right price. Their father brought them up on a farm, right? Why do they not know how to buy the right kind of tractor?

Anyway I'm still watching it, even though they have it on near midnight. It's probably all this tractor stuff they get wrong explains why so late. I'm in New Zealand and we take tractors seriously.

Serena Williams Meltdown

Spare a thought for Naomi Osaka. Who is Naomi Osaka? The 2018 winner of the US Open tennis tournament. She beat Serena Williams in the final quite easily.

All you hear about is how Williams lost. And she lost badly by being outplayed and then throwing a hissy-fit of monumental proportions. I guess she's desperate to equal Margaret Court's record. To do that she'll have to wait until next year and the Australian Open at the earliest.

Williams only has herself to blame. She's a top professional, she must know all the umpires and how they officiate. A player of her stature must be able to adjust to whoever is in the umpires chair. She couldn't, what she expected was for the umpire to bend to her will. She scolded him, finger pointing, then questioned his honesty. The umpire acted very professionally, playing it straight down the middle. A good case could be made for Williams losing by default, that's how bad her tantrum was.

Now we're subjected to Williams hogging the headlines about how she's fighting for equality, the rights of women, you name it. It is very unbecoming and very unsportsmanlike. Now you can see why I avoid anything to do with Serena Williams. I try not to watch but seeing as Osaka had done so well, I just had to catch the highlights, and then no surprise from Williams. I wasn't even forewarned about what to expect and when the tantrum started I could only feel for Osaka having to stand there stranded while Williams tried to influence the match by causing a disruption.

Bigger picture; the game at the highest level has to be wrestled back off the elite players. They're starting to think they call the shots. One option would be to restructure the way tournaments are played. Currently tournaments really want the stars to advance. Anyone who loses is out, and thus the organisers don't like early exits. So a premium is placed on this top talent. Change the way things are done and neuter these top players. Got any ideas?

Slavery: Roman Empire

Something I feel is often overlooked about the institution of slavery during the Roman Empire, is that it worked as a social filter. More recent slavery failed as it worked the opposite way, keeping people in slavery generation after generation.

What do I mean by social filter? The institution funnelled people from the outside, into becoming civilised. Now I'm grossly exaggerating of course, see a Wikipedia article below for a more detailed description. However I think my generalisation still holds.

I use an example, the instance is Julius Caesar's Gallic Wars. When a region is conquered he takes a certain number as slaves. Wholesalers followed the army and they would take the slaves and sell them. This would have had two effects, the first being the conquered get to rid themselves of their troublemakers and underclass (that's because they had a say in who got enslaved). It also kept everyone left that wasn't enslaved behaving nicely.

Then the slaves once taken supported the Roman economy by conducting mostly menial tasks (though some were highly skilled and others were treated brutally in the mines, they are the exception not the rule) and they then had the chance to become free and a Roman citizen of low rank. This wasn't just a rare occurrence, laws had to be passed stopping the rapid freeing of slaves, it became so commonplace. And slaves were generally looked after with laws evolving to protect them from mistreatment. Some were expelled from Rome for being too dangerous, but most led productive lives after being freed, including those expelled.

The social filter remained effective for longer than the period of enslavement as freed slaves were connected to their former owners who became the freed slaves patron. They had obligations to one another. And critically, the children of freed slaves became Roman citizens without restriction. 

For a good intro to Roman slavery see the following Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_ancient_Rome

And a plug for my novel Dana Point, which has the Herculean society biochemically ranked. Status is determined by blood test at birth but individuals can rise by achievement. If they commit a crime they're busted back to the rank they were born with. It's the way I see a fully advanced Roman society evolving if it was allowed to. 

Azealia Banks Right - Elon Musk

Maybe all those people who dump on Azealia Banks owe her an apology. A few weeks ago she reported seeing Elon Musk taking drugs. Well, even though this latest episode isn't illegal, here we have Musk smoking marijuana. Now the status of SpaceX in relation to Air Force contracts is under investigation:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/air-force-is-looking-into-elon-musks-pot-smoking-source.html

Space Station Leak

I feel like I have the ability to see into the future. My novel Dana Point has a space craft which springs a leak. It was due to human error or equipment wear. The leak is pretty much the same as being reported on board the space station.

https://www.space.com/41712-space-station-leak-human-error-russia-says.html

This is real science. For those who watch movies and wonder about the realism when they see the action; when the thing in space starts leaking, it doesn't result in catastrophic failure. It is more like a sinking boat than anything else.

New Name for New Zealand

Let's face it, New Zealand as a name is quite lame. How about a new name? What are your suggestions?

Aotearoa - which means land of the long white cloud
Hercules - may favourite this one, Hercules was known for his strength and adventures.

Roman Stuff: Did Romans Reach New Zealand?

Interesting to ponder, with all their technology and know-how, did the Romans ever get as far as New Zealand?

Surely, it's possible. I explain it like this; Romans traded with the east. There were a number of trade routes, some over land, others using the Persian Gulf. But one much lesser known route was from Egypt, down the Red Sea, across the Arabian Sea, around the Indian coastline, across the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, then to the Mekong River, and then up the Mekong to the trading point. Maybe trade along the way too, you know? The Romans would pick up silk and drop off pottery and other utilitarian items.

Fine, but how has that got anything to do with NZ? Well, the winds blow west to east. The journey out is quite fast, with the wind always at your back. But what if a storm blew up and lasted for days? It could mean being blown off course, and out to the Indian Ocean, eventually bumping into Australia. With the winds the way they are, it is hard to work your way up the west coast of Australia, so any ship would bump along the bottom of southern Australia, eventually arriving at Tasmania. Then across the Tasman Sea and bumping into the west coast of New Zealand.

Knowing they had to work their way north, the Roman vessel would work its way up the west coast, possibly stopping to pick up wood (to repair the ship with) and water (to stay alive, lots of water available). Then free of the NZ coast line, they'd slowly find their way to the SE Asian islands and find the Mekong. Or they'd expire looking, who knows.

The point being, I've just outlined Abel Tasman's journey, except he began in SE Asia and went around, but the part where he bumped along Australia is very real, it's just how it works. The wind being the wind and all that.

And if the Romans could have done this, what about Persians, Egyptians, Portuguese and Spanish? Why is the only explanation that Polynesians arrived at a certain time, followed by the Dutch, English and French. I may be overreaching but how exactly did the Kumara get to NZ seeing as that's South America?

The answer will be, there is no evidence for my hypothesis. Fine, that'd be right. But still, conjecture is fun too and most discovery is made by a fair bit of dreaming and let's give it a kick in the guts to see if it works.