Promotion to start 2017

Through an Amazon promotion I am making my two novels free as a Kindle read on the 1st and 2nd of January 2017. You can download and read an electronic version of these two great reads on those dates.

Physical paperback copies are available from CreateSpace. I have a high conversion rate from Kindle to the physical book, meaning many who begin reading the books on Kindle or on their computer, like the books so much they go and buy them in print.

>>Click Here for My Latest Book<<

The Crushing Son is set in the quarrying industry on the Gold Coast, Australia. The title is a play on words; the rival families work crushing rock, one of the sons crushes the father over time, and the oppressive heat crushes the spirit.

>>Click Here for my First Novel<<

Pitched at the young adult reader level, Basketball Obsession is set in the only town in New Zealand where basketball reigns instead of rugby. That town is Nelson, and we follow the fortunes of a team with obvious talent but little cohesion at the start. Pete is the team's power forward and he holds the team together as they advance to nationals and a shot at glory.

Donald Trump as President

I've been thinking that most of what Donald Trump has said he wants to achieve he won't be able to, simply because staff in the various departments and the defence establishment move very slowly. I imagine the scene, Trump wanting to shut this or that down and the reaction, silence. Then comes the stalling. Reports, endless reports.

Then at some point we'll hear a loud thud. That will be the sound of the penny dropping.

I saw a video somewhere where documentary maker Michael Moore described Trump as the last US President. I don't agree and wouldn't be surprised if Trump does not stand for re-election, or maybe even resigns. That would be consistent with my view that he didn't actually plan on getting elected, and he's as surprised as anyone that he won.

Israel recalls ambassador from New Zealand

Background to the issue:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/passes-resolution-israeli-settlements-161223192709807.html

The UN Security Council has voted in favour of a resolution demanding the halt of settlement activity by Israel on occupied Palestinian territory with the United States notably abstaining.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11772739

The Israeli Government has recalled its ambassador from New Zealand after the UN Security Council passed a resolution condemning Israel's continued settlements.
New Zealand co-sponsored the resolution, which said the settlements violate international law and undermine a two-state solution in Israel's conflict with Palestine.

My thoughts, good on you New Zealand, about time something was done. The UN, what a bunch of time serving bureaucrats, they've finally passed a resolution that amounts to something.

I wonder how NZ's Prime Minister is going to handle the fall-out? This will be his first test in international diplomacy. Not bean counting now there Bill.

KiwiRail: Beginning of the End

The latest announcement from KiwiRail puts another nail in the coffin of New Zealand's North Island rail system, and undermines the NZ economy to boot. They've announced they're replacing North Island main trunk electric locomotives with diesel ones.

Does no-one in NZ have a brain? Does no-one remember the trouble the country went through to electrify the North Island main trunk line. The only trouble with it, is the system is not connected up, there are gaps, these missing sections need to be completed. But to go backwards like this is poor thinking indeed.

Here's a map of the main trunk rail line in the North Island showing the gaps:

The Union are opposed, good on them, they're right: http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=95658 

“Our models show that reinvesting in an electric fleet is better for KiwiRail’s wallet in the long term and it’s better for the planet. The current electric fleet saves 8 million litres in fuel each year and the price of upkeep is only $1.13 per km, but the Chinese-made diesel locomotives will guzzle the gas the electric fleet saves and the likely cost of upkeep will be $2.27 per km.”

I'd add, consider the extra tonnage the electric trains can pull, this was a compelling argument back when the decision was made to upgrade. The revenue tonnage per mile is much better with electric, meaning you can transport bigger loads at less cost, with longer trains.

What this decision does is show the weakness of the current State Owned Enterprise (SOE) model. Key infrastructure decisions are left to wing-nuts. Decisions like this have to be made after lengthy consideration and I'm talking Prime Minister. Oh wait, New Zealand has a pretend Southland farmer as its PM now, well we're all jiggered.

I noticed the Greens being suitably outraged, well Greens, stop sitting on the sidelines all the time, enter government and take ownership if you think you're good enough. Your sitting in Wellington and being a permanent naysayer does not get anything done, you need to actually do shit. Stop being a spectator.

Michelle Obama: How Long Before She Leaves?

If you watched the Oprah Winfrey interview the other night, one thing that stood out for me was how unhappy Michelle Obama looks. She tells the story in her facial expressions and body language.

What's she going to do now her husband is essentially unemployed and possibly unemployable? Speaking tours? It doesn't look like she'll enjoy that.

Here are my odds for - she's outta there, bearing in mind you can easily find the divorce papers online, from back when her marriage to Barack was on the rocks:

(odds quoted are time limited from the date Donald Trump is sworn in)

Michelle Obama files divorce proceedings within 6 months 50-1
Michelle Obama files divorce proceedings within 12 months 3-1
Michelle Obama files for divorce within 24 months 500-1
Michelle Obama is still co-habiting with Barack Obama and has not filed for divorce at any time after Trump's swearing in after 25 months...1000 -1

2016 Year of Upsets

What next? Will 2017 be anything like 2016?

Whether talking sports or politics, 2016 saw one upset after another. From Leicester City winning the English Premier League through to the Cubs winning the World Series. Brexit and then Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton. Any one of these things in a normal year and we'd be surprised but they all came at once, plus more. Make up your own list, it's been an exceptional year.

But in little old New Zealand while it may wish it, the type of electoral system the country now uses will almost certainly guarantee the same old tired faces stick around. New Zealand adopted German-style MMP in the mid 1990's. It was meant to build consensus government, where parties would form coalitions and work together. NZ was told it would be a stable form of government. Out with the old, where first past the post often led to the government receiving fewer popular votes than the combined opposition.

How has it panned out for little New Zealand? Minority governments are still not uncommon and it receives the worst of all worlds. Politicians who lose their seat now get back into Parliament off their party list. You can't get rid of them. This system may have been appropriate for Germany, where extreme left and right has held sway, but middle of the road New Zealand gets stuck with aged mediocrity that seem to be wedded to the job. Voters are left trusting the parties to refresh their party lists.

Then you have parties like the Greens who are professional naysayers and cannot win a seat. They get enough party votes to have representatives in Parliament, all coming in off the party list. They offer nothing constructive.

What New Zealand ends up with is indecision or weak-kneed legislation like the anti-smacking law. NZ was promised no parent who smacked their child would be criminalised, but that's exactly what has happened. It's outrageous.

With this loose limbed, liberal, middle ground seeking, never face issues head on approach, NZ still continues to slide. Renewal at the top isn't possible, and that's because of MMP.

****

Description of MMP: http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system

Bill English: Housing Denier

It didn't take long for the incompetence to emerge after John Key resigned as Prime Minister. The new PM, Bill English, has a bee under his bonnet about housing. He wants to sell off the state housing stock to private investors, a staggeringly stupid idea. New Zealand can be proud of its past policies which have seen affordable housing built by the government. Whole suburbs such as Naenae, Wainuiomata, and Upper Hutt were built by the state (or the greater part of them) from one end of the country to the other.

The way they used to do these suburbs, was on one side of the street they'd build State Advances housing, these were houses the occupier would own, the money being lent by the government through State Advances (later becoming the Housing Corp) on favourable terms. Then the other side of the street were state rentals at a reasonable rate. They did it this way to mix the areas up with tenants and owners, they didn't want to create ghettos. 

You could always tell which houses were rentals as they never had a garage. The state helps out and houses people, it doesn't provide a place for them to park their car, if needing state assistance then they should be taking the bus or train, ride a bicycle or use Shanks's pony. 

On the side of the street that was State Advances, they could have a garage and houses could be altered at the design stage. I have a story about this, to give the reader an idea of what the pace of development was like. A few years ago the son of the state architect in charge of Wellington rang me to discuss things and in this conversation it came up that my uncle was one of the builders contracted to build the state houses in Lower Hutt. He said my uncle was building houses so fast his architect father asked him to slow down, he was building houses so fast they couldn't produce the plans quick enough. 

Now fast forward to today, few state houses are being built and we have a PM who not only wants to sell those state houses off, but in his Cabinet line-up just announced he's scrapped the title of Minister of Housing. This is nothing short of outrageous and all New Zealand should be up in arms.

Quite why English hates state houses is a mystery. Does this go back to when he was young and denied housing because someone more needy got in first? He lives in a state house himself of course, with his many kids. Yes, he's a total hypocrite.

This will just be the start, Bill English with his faux Southland accent (note he's dropping it lately) and born to rule ways must be defeated at the box office, he's nothing but a menace.

Obama: Russia Hacked

President Obama is saying that Russia influenced the outcome of the Presidential election by hacking both the Republican and Democratic party emails; the Democratic emails were then released to damage the prospects of Hillary Clinton, the presidential candidate for the Democrats.

Hands up anyone who believes this?

Let's see the evidence. It isn't too much to ask, surely. Maybe an independent hacker could look at the evidence and issue a report, and let it be known who this hacker is so we can all see they have the expertise.

Putin must be sitting there grinning from ear to ear. It's like he found a discarded lottery ticket and found he's a major winner. Imagine your competitor insists on making it very well known how clever you are. That's the barb Putin has to endure every day (irony). Someone, please tell President Obama to silence, he's meant to be managing a graceful exit and right now he's looking like a chump.

Auckland House Prices

If you've been watching the news from the US you'd have noticed statements by Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve. The US is heading into an inflationary cycle and Fed rates will be rising.

This impacts house prices in New Zealand. The NZ banks fund their lending by borrowing overseas. Currently the cost of that money is very low, with competing major economies offering deposit rates that are zero or close to zero. Therefore New Zealand is an attractive destination for that money looking for a safe haven.

But with US Fed rates rising, money will start heading to the US as the US Dollar is still the safe haven everyone prefers. That means NZ banks will be faced with the higher cost of obtaining funds, and they'll pass that on to the NZ borrower.

It is prudent therefore to avoid debt over the next few years, at least until the impact of Trump policies is fully understood. Home owners could look at fixing their home loan rates, say, for five years if the mortgage is a large one. Reduce credit card debt.

If buying a house right now, maybe look to keep saving, deferring the decision to buy. As rates rise houses will come on the market that are being sold by owners heavily indebted and unable to afford repayments. Yes, house prices could even fall in this scenario. Prices are already plateauing in most of the country and small interest rate rises have already been announced by banks. Expect this trend to continue.

Kaikoura Earthquake: Sate Highway 1 Repairs

It's been announced that the road from Christchurch to Kaikoura will be open soon, so it will be possible to drive to Kaikoura without having to go the inland route. That's fine, but why has there been no work on the massive slips north of Kaikoura?

The locals are fuming and justifiably so: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11767842

You know what I think has been going on in the background? Figuring out whether they'll even bother with it. That's right, they were thinking about closing SH1 north of Kaikoura and the rail line as well, maybe even closing all rail in the South Island.

C'mon people, this is a bunch of bean counters running the country, they've run the defence force into the ground, why would they not want to do that to the South Island as well?

I resent Gerry Brownlee resented deeply. Get off your lard arse Gerry and get diggers working. Is it that simple? Well it is actually, there are millions of tonnes to move and no time like the present to start, the job won't finish itself.

They say the job north of Kaikoura will take a year. My calculation says two years, and I've done a lot of earthmoving, so two years likely, possibly three or four if things go wrong, like major bank stabilisation being needed.

Kaikoura farmers and contractors, word of advice, scream your tits off. Demand action. They're the National party right? That's the farmers party, right? Little Bill English pretends to be a Southland farmer, they should be looking after you. Well wise up Kaikoura, they're only interested in the Auckland party vote, not the farmers, and English isn't a farmer, he'd struggle to turn a tractor on.

Blog changes in 2017

Thank you to all my readers, you've all helped contribute to making this blog highly successful. I don't want to blow my own trumpet or anything, but right now I could be the most read New Zealand based blogger worldwide. I've got tens of thousands of readers, starting with the greatest number in the USA, then New Zealand, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, Canada, Indonesia, Australia and Ireland - in that order.

Just recently I've started gaining readers in Portugal, Poland, Spain, Latvia, Iraq and Morocco.

In the early days, people read about new trucks for the New Zealand army the most, but then I reported on the Australian who claims to be the first son of Prince Charles and his current wife Camilla. It went ballistic and my blog was reported in the overseas press.

But then something happened; people also started reading my Snob's Guide on moving to New Zealand (for those Americans thinking about this since Donald Trump has been elected) and about New Zealand and my plans for making it better. Those blog posts took over from the ones about the army trucks and Prince Charles. We are talking a lot of page views each day and rising.

I'm going to continue writing in a similar vein through 2017. I'll try to keep things somewhat eclectic, not just the same old same old. I plan on writing a third book, non-fiction, a Snob's Guide to Everything New Zealand and anything else interesting, and I'll keep you all updated on when it's due for publication. It shouldn't take all that long, I'll just rant at my middle child and then write these rants down soon after.

Forum

I plan on starting a forum. Any advice about which forum provider is best is much appreciated, I don't want to make a bad choice as it'll be hard to switch and keep the data once up and running. It'll be a free forum, with a link to it at the top of the blog alongside the other links.

The other thing to consider is the structure of the forum, the categories to use, making navigation easy. If you have a preference please let me know. There is a contact form >>> to the right which sends straight to my gmail. I check it several times a day.

Prizes

As an innovation I may offer prizes to readers (guess what the prizes will be...anyone?). These prizes may not be easy to win, and could involve hard quizzes on history, politics, economics, sport and general wingnuttery.

Contributors 

At the moment only I write for this blog. But if you think you're up to it and can write a thousand words of cogent argument about something sensible (and if not sensible then it must be funny) then send it to me and if acceptable then I'll publish it with you getting credit. There will be no payment, but you do get credit. Think comment pieces, any original research or investigative work would be better placed in the forum.

To be a contributor you must use your real name, no aliases. I use my real name, and finding me is pretty easy, my details are in the NZ Yellow Pages online. So write away and submit to me, if you're hard to find I may ask to ring you up to check that you exist. If things go well and you become trusted, then you may get to register as a site user and post directly. This will not be that common as I'm a stickler for correctness, spelling and such, and try to eliminate errors. So to get the right to post directly on this site, you'd have to be very clean.

I've decided not to monetise the site at this stage, advertisements are annoying. But you can buy my books, that's always welcome: https://www.amazon.com/Ken-Horlor/e/B00VQEETJW/ref=dp_byline_cont_ebooks_1

Anyone who contributes a piece that is published can have a link to their work too, no problem at all. Whether you provide a product or service, or you're promoting your talent or selling a book, it's all good but just remember, not too much shameless self promotion.

Why contribute? I've spent years on my little blog and have just broken through, by all means start your own blog but get ready for a long lead time. If you write and publish here, you'll get noticed much faster as you're going to be read a lot right from the word go. If you're a competitor, that is another blogger, then we may co-operate, that is we provide reciprocal pieces, together with links and credit both ways.

That's all folks, have a nice Christmas and great New Year, let's hope 2017 proves to be an interesting year. I'm sure it will.

Made in New Zealand

How many global brands can you think of that are made in New Zealand? One that I didn't know about is Sistema Plastics. I saw that it has been sold to a US company for US$470 million. I have a daughter at school and she says that everyone she knows has a Sistema lunch box, while my wife informs me she buys Sistema because it is made in New Zealand. Well I never!

Read about the Sistema sale here; http://www.wsj.com/articles/newell-to-buy-sistema-woodwick-for-a-combined-570-million-1481547345

One brand made in New Zealand that I am fully aware of is the Barmac crusher. A Barmac vertical shaft impactor (VSI) can be found in 60% of the world's quarries. From Matamata to the world. The company is now owned by Metso, the Finnish giant.

How about Swazi wet weather and outdoor gear made in Levin: http://www.swazi.co.nz/about-swazi/

How about Tracgrip and Trackback, Kiwi engineering for getting your track-type tractor on the go up hills and for getting those tracks that skip off, put back on http://trackgrip.co.nz and trackback.co.nz/trackback/

How about Cavotec MoorMaster in Christchurch. They manufacture giant suction cups to hold ships in place alongside the dock, it really does work!! It's a surprise when you first see the suction cups lock on, it goes THUD: http://www.moormaster.com

Then Brightwater Engineering (yes, that's little Brightwater near Nelson in the South Island) manufacture Yarders, see their biggest machine: http://www.brightwater.co.nz/assets/Uploads/BE85-Yarder-Spec-Sheet-Web-Version3.pdf

You'd think with all this innovation and enterprise going on that the government would be a bit more supportive, eh. But NZ has a grandstanding attention seeking sound bite set of politicians who probably have never heard of any of the companies listed here, with the exception of Sistema (maybe not even then). New Zealand has to grow up and realise the rest of the world only pays lip service to free trade, they do not actually practise it and to compete NZ has to get real and tilt the playing field in its favour when it suits.

New Zealand: How Big Should It Be?

It depends how you measure it, in land area New Zealand is about the same size as Japan or the British Isles, or if you're American, the same size as the state of Colorado.

Another way of looking at it is to measure the economy. NZ's total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is about $185 billion (US Dollars).

Compare that with the largest companies; Walmart has a total revenue of about $482 billion, Volkswagen $237 billion and Berkshire Hathaway $211 billion.

How about comparing staff numbers? Walmart employs 2.3 million worldwide, Volkswagen 610,000, Berkshire Hathaway 331,000; while little old New Zealand has 4.5 million people producing that GDP, in total less than the any of the three companies mentioned.

What about management? New Zealand has approximately 45,000 public servants and another 28,000 local authority employees.  If you accept that these people are roughly equivalent to managers at some level in the corporate world, then NZ has 73,000 of them.

Walmart has fewer than that number of managers for a revenue almost three times the size of NZ's GDP. My guess is Volkswagen will have fewer managers than Walmart and Berkshire Hathaway much fewer still. At the top in Berkshire Hathaway sits an executive team that is very small operating out of the Kiewit Plaza in Omaha, Nebraska.

Am I making my point? NZ is grossly and excessively governed. NZ does not need all these people. The state of Colorado employs about 32,000 at the state level off a population of 5.3 million and a GDP 40% larger than NZ's. I'm not sure what the total head count is if you combine federal, state and local authorities; someone may like to provide the numbers.

California has 204,000 full-time employees and that state on its own would be the world's fifth largest economy with a GDP of $2.4 Trillion; it has 4.5 times the number of government employees but is more than twelve times bigger economically (and much bigger territorially as well).

This is one area where National has failed miserably, they promised to reduce the head count at government level. Where is this going to end, when everyone is working for the government?

Dunedin Study: Intervene Before Age Three

Research now being publicised backs up what I've been banging on about for a long time. Get children early enough and you save yourself a lot of money and the children who benefit the most are those most at risk.

We need to stop building more institutions, that is outdated thinking. We need to get children engaged with learning, and look after their circumstances, providing nourishment, shelter, caring, aspirations, and healthcare. By doing that we can turn things around and prevent any future crime wave.

We need to stop this ambulance at the bottom of the cliff thinking. The work is done early, certainly by the time the child starts school. Parents need support, and we need the community to get in behind this effort; not just social workers who have a dubious record themselves. I'm talking neighbours, teachers, church leaders, sport coaches, you name it.

I think this starts at birth and children need to be registered in the system, all children, no exceptions, and get them along to sports or other community events to begin with. The parents also need the jobs to fund their involvement, and this means meaningful pay, not the minimum slave type wage conditions many endure. If you want to see evidence of how this works then go to Porirua. The place is buzzing with life, and I put this down to employment and education.

Educate + Health + Employment + Community = Good things happen.


https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/dec/12/high-social-cost-adults-can-be-identified-from-as-young-as-three-says-study

The study, which followed around 1,000 children from birth, found that at 38 years of age just 22% of the group accounted for 81% of its criminal convictions, 78% of pharmaceutical prescriptions, and 66% of welfare benefits

Rap Music All Good

In late September through to early October this year I drove just over 9,000 kms (5,592 mls) around the US. A lot of that time I had the radio on in the car. So I think I can give a fairly accurate description of what I endured. Most of the music was rubbish.

Once out into the heartland and away from the densely populated areas, the spectrum was dominated by rock stations playing the same old selection, Poison, AC/DC, Poison, you get the idea. And then when out in the middle of nowhere and beyond range you can turn to Sirius, satellite radio. The amount of time you can listen to Sirius is limited because if you listen too long your head explodes.

The cultural heart of music in the US appears to be Rap music. The stations are funny, entertaining, and the music is genuinely good. Everything else you can forget. So when in range I'd just turn to any Rap music station and leave it there.

That said, I didn't hear any Azealia Banks. Maybe she needs to think more mainstream and stop trying to upset Russell Crowe, that pathetic non-Australian, actually a New Zealander practically denying being one and pretending to be Australian. It was heartening to see she quickly figured this out recently and tried to discipline him. She should have had the presence of mind to point out that musically he has no talent at all. Maybe she did, I don't know, but all Kiwis everywhere should salute her for confronting Mr Crowe.

The very talented Azealia Banks can be heard in this embedded YouTube video. If you don't like expletive laden lyrics then I suggest giving this one a swerve:

Kaikoura Earthquake and the South Island

I've been thinking about the recent Kaikoura earthquake and I may have badly underestimated its economic effect. I think the effects are far greater than is being discussed in the media. You don't hear much being said do you, and I'm not struck by the sense of urgency either, but I think the Kaikoura earthquake could be really bad and here's why:

The South Island is the engine that drives the New Zealand economy. I realise Auckland thinks it does, but the South Island is the productive sector and important earner of export dollars. The big earthquake has blocked State Highway 1 (SH1), preventing the efficient movement of freight by road from Christchurch and the rest of the lower South Island through to Picton (and the ferry to Wellington in the North Island). The Lewis Pass route is a serious detour and isn't a long term solution.

Then the rail line is also blocked. The freight from the South Island to Auckland can no longer be moved by rail.

With the road blocked not just points south of the blockage are affected, but also the top of the South Island. The ferry services across Cook Strait must now be in jeopardy as freight is now being moved by coastal shipping from Auckland to Lyttelton (Christchurch). Nelson, the whole Tasman region and Marlborough could become badly isolated if one or both ferry services shuts down.

Then without the rail line through Kaikoura, the whole rail system in the South Island is put in doubt. How many trains run on this system if not running from Christchurch to Picton? Not many is the answer. If the rail system goes bust and shuts down, those industries that do rely on rail (coal exports and milk powder plants) may become uneconomic after having to shift to road. In the case of coal exports, port facilities nearer the mines would take a while to upgrade.

The effects are much wider than just the immediate concern about Kaikoura, its farmers, tourist industry and residents. The whole South Island is going to feel the pinch.

We need to know what is being done and we need to know that the work is being given top priority. Leadership challenges within the government, what buildings they enjoy, cabinet line-ups and all that are a much lower priority. If SH1 and the rail line can't be fixed toot sweet then New Zealand is going to take a serious haircut.

Trump Appointments

It looks like Donald Trump is a disrupter. He seems to be appointing people who will set about making changes. Reference his appointment of so-called renegade generals to his Cabinet, and the appointment of people like Seema Verma to head Medicaid/Medicare.

One appointment I have to say I like and indicates far-sightedness is the appointment of Linda McMahon to head small business. She and her husband Vince came from virtually nothing to head a veritable media and sporting empire. At one stage she was on food stamps. If anyone knows something about small business then it's her.

It is rumoured that Rex Tillerson will get the nod as Secretary of State. Again this is clever thinking by Trump if true. It is well known Putin values personal friendship in his dealings and if the two, Tillerson and Putin, get along then that bodes well for averting war.

Thoughts About Tax

Working on the assumption that less tax is good and more tax is bad, and that the more you fiddle with something the more likely you are to cock it up or break it, I've developed the following ideas to overhaul New Zealand's tax system.

In my Manifesto for NZ I suggested dropping NZ's GST rate to 10%, scrapping Working for Families, doing away with user pays and making government smaller and leaner, by that last remark I'm talking about health care being made closer to the people, and government departments being dispersed, making government cheaper as salaries are lower in the regions (and it means less risk to NZ due to natural disaster). My ideas involve a mix of cutting costs and raising revenue, such as a huge infrastructure spend leading to employment (this includes state housing) and mining which is a solid foreign exchange earner.

If you don't like the sound of all that, how about the following as an alternative; scrap all PAYE.

That's right, just don't collect PAYE. By simplifying the tax system to being indirect only, the cost of collection goes down for employers and government. What would happen is the individual pay packet would only have superannuation deducted, possibly council rates, student loans and any fines and other levies such as court orders and that would be that. What you earn you keep, when you consume you pay.

My thinking is the GST rate would need to be about 22.5% to achieve this aim. I'm interested in anyone who has tumbled the numbers on this. Working for Families - gone. PAYE - gone. User pays - gone. 

Critics will say this is regressive in nature. That's why I went for the 10% GST and less excise on cigarettes, to lower prices for the poor. But I'm putting this as an alternative, what it does is provide incentives to earn more and instead of taking money from the higher earners, it allows them to consume and invest and grow the economy (more employment).

What am I talking about? Higher earners pay most income tax. I think those earning more than $100,000 pay about 98% of all tax in New Zealand directly - correct me if I'm wrong. It's easy then to just say income tax is a waste of time, just take GST and leave it at that.

More controversial would be to look at exemptions from and zero rating of GST. It makes sense to exempt financial transactions but residential rental being zero rated? What about taking something from that, setting GST at say, 10% as opposed to everything else 22.5%. 

Note to Maori Filmmakers

Maori filmmakers are the best New Zealand has to offer I believe. I watched Mt Zion recently and it encapsulates 1979 quite well, with a few quibbles:

The cars. I realise they were probably scrounging round looking for cars to use, the main one being a Holden Kingswood ute; I also saw a 1950's Morris or Wolseley (hard to say), a Jaguar XJ6 and a Bedford van.

About this, thing is, for Maori potato contractors, I don't think the father would be driving such a car as a Holden Kingswood. He'd know anything Holden was unreliable (and a lurch to the left, not politically, they did lurch to the left literally). They were expensive for what you got for the money. More likely he'd be driving a MkIII Zephyr (Ford), or possibly a MkII Zephyr, even a MkI. If he wanted a really good car then it'd be a Chrysler Valiant VH ute, like the one below:

These cars are legendarily reliable and solid, Maori loved them.

I don't know why Pakeha can't make good period movies set in their society, watch the Maori productions and learn I guess.

Yelena Isinbayeva Getting Even?

Yelena Isinbayeva not being able to compete at Rio 2016 has got to be one of the biggest sporting travesties this decade. She's always been clean, and she's the best in her field. Ever thought the Olympics was rigged? Look no further than Rio 2016 Athletics.

Isinbayeva is to now head the Russian anti-doping agency and she's pissed. I hope she socks it to WADA, that group of politically motivated officials (you just know I wanted to say something stronger didn't you!).

http://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/18234462/wada-criticizes-russia-yelena-isinbayeva-role

Where to for Formula 1?

Formula 1 has lost the plot. The cars are too expensive, the number of teams competing too few, the races not competitive enough, just about everything is wrong. Changes are afoot, in 2017 tyres will be wider and the body will be modified, maybe some other things too, to be honest I've lost interest after devouring everything F1 since I was a little kid.

For me the most important thing is the sound of the car. Over the decades the sound has evolved to be more like a sewing machine than a fast car. There is something about the cars of the 1950's, 60's and 70's that hits you in the stomach, and it's the sound that does that. As the speeds rose and the cars became ever more technically complex, the sound changed, and it wasn't better. Finally the fans got sick of it and went looking elsewhere. I could see it coming in the 1990's.

To illustrate I've got two videos to link to, the first is the sound of a BRM V16; they were used from 1947 up to 1955, listen to this monster and tell me it doesn't make you wet yourself:



The next video has the sounds from the 1950's up to 2014, you can see how wimpy the sound has become:



Get the gut wrenching sound back and F1 will scale the heights once more.

Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party

What sort of political party calls itself Opportunities? It's a lame name, what a shame.

I visited their website and I was underwhelmed. They had one policy and that was to change tax, making it fairer. That's it, tax. They didn't have anything else. Note that when I say 'they' I'm pretty sure I'm talking about just one man and his ideas. I don't imagine any room exists for ideas that Mr Morgan doesn't agree with or hasn't thought of himself.

Why do I say that? Well remember when he used to write his columns, the one that appeared regularly in The Press in Christchurch and no doubt other publications? At the foot of each piece was a suggestion to go to Mr Morgan's website to discuss the issues. When I did that and expressed ideas that criticised Mr Morgan, I was summarily banned. I think I lasted one day on his site. Mr Morgan is not in favour of open debate. He's a sensitive soul.

Let's face it with regard to Mr Morgan. He's only notable for having bred someone good, and that good person is Sam Morgan, the founder of Trade Me. Gareth Morgan, who appears to promote himself as some kind of guru, has assailed the New Zealand public with his wackadoodle views, which in short amount to putting a bob each way and then popping up to say 'see I told you so' when whatever it is happens.

What was this latest whiz bang idea? I think it was that total assets should be taxed. A classic example of theory getting in the way of practical reality. Here's why such an idea is stupid:-

1. New Zealanders have been trained since forever to put their life savings into their house. You can't just go shifting the goal posts, people are not good at changing course and do not have the skill sets to make investment decisions apart from which house to buy;

2. What happens when there is yet another collapse? There have been seven major economic crises in NZ in my lifetime (do I need to list them?), and the only constant that has saved me and the rest of NZ from ruin was the safe haven of owning our own home, thank heavens it is not taxed apart from Rates;

3. If the tax is not paid, Inland Revenue will be foreclosing people's homes, the IRD could become the biggest seizer of Kiwis homes;

4. Farmers prices at the gate fluctuate, and farms are valuable immovable assets, if farmers are taxed on their total assets they'll be forced to play the financial markets, or set up businesses in towns where businesses are already closing their doors. This puts NZ's productive base in jeopardy;

5. Property prices go up and down, whereas income tends to rise, albeit slowly. The government tax take would fluctuate and create uncertainty with regard to basic services like defence, health and education;

6. Seeing as Auckland has the most valuable real estate, the policy is highly Auckland-centric;

7. Kiwis would be forced to deal with investment advisers which have a very dubious record.

The policy as developed by Morgan and his Opportunities party would have the opposite effect of that intended, it affords less opportunity for Kiwis. The practical effect would be to move control over many assets to so-called investment professionals, and dodgy shells set up to fleece the masses. The history of New Zealand is littered with shonk after shonk. The only thing Kiwis can do is buy as good a home as they can afford, they don't need people like Gareth Morgan looking to whittle away at what little nest egg they have.

How Terrorism Wins

Terrorists want you to change your behaviour and how you think. They win when their acts of terror, or their threats of terror make you do what they want you to do or think the way they want you to think.

And so terrorists won when the organisers of the Christchurch Santa Parade caved in to threats of terror. Shame on you Santa Parade organisers and where are the police in all this? Why are the police waiting for a complaint to be lodged, when terrorism is involved they don't need to receive a complaint.

Here's the background: http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/87072747/santa-parade-defiant-over-red-face-claims

Christchurch woman Michelle Flores saw the float in last year's parade and emailed the organisers this week to ask them to remove it from this year's event.

"Many people in NZ don't seem to understand how inappropriate it is for white people to dress up in essentially what is 'redface'," she wrote in the email.

"If white Americans or Canadians dressed up as Maori people with brown paint on their faces and in traditional Maori dress and had a float in a Santa parade doing the Haka somewhere in North America, that would be incredibly inappropriate right?"

But Santa Parade manager Pam Morris said she was "offended" by the request.

"If she had a good look at that float, some of it belongs to a tribe that I went to the reservation of in Buffalo. They know about this float and they gave me some headgear to use on this float.

"We have the blessing of that tribe."

Chairwoman of the Santa Parade's trust, Anne Jamieson, said the float would be included because it was a tradition that children enjoyed.

<snip>

Professor of Maori and indigenous studies at Massey University, Rawiri Taonui, said the costumes were only offensive if they mocked First Nations people.

"It is OK if they are dressing up in costume as a way of learning about that culture in a respectful way.

"If that is the intent we should support it. It depends on the intent."

And then when the float was paraded during the Santa Parade the Indian costumes were pulled from the float after threats of violence from a terrorist group:-

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/87194113/emails-threaten-to-set-controversial-parade-float-on-fire

First Nation and Native American costumes were pulled from a Christchurch Santa Parade float after one of the organisers received emails threatening to set it on fire.

Okay, so to recap; this float was approved of by the tribe who provided the Native American dress, but that wasn't good enough for the terrorists who issued threats and the organisers caved.

Well, there we have it, it's easy to intimidate New Zealanders eh. Wow. Just Wow.

John Key Success or Failure?

I believe history will not be that kind to John Key, New Zealand's now retired Prime Minister. When he came into office he had a lot of potential, the previous nine years had been competently led by Helen Clark but her Labour party reign had been typified by Nanny state trying to control Kiwis everyday lives.

John Key promised to reverse that and give Kiwis their lives back. He failed to do it. About the only thing I can recall him doing to stop this creeping intrusiveness was his National party let us have our incandescent light bulbs back. That's about it.

National promised a lot but delivered very little. They were going to get all school children into sport, this was a top priority they said. What happened to that idea? It sank.

Soon after taking office, Key made speeches up and down the country about unleashing NZ's mining potential. They surveyed the country for rare earth elements, it was all go. Then the Pike River mine disaster happened and Key became jumpy, he was like a possum caught in the headlights. So mining was now off the agenda.

Then we had the GFC. He's credited with doing something for NZ there but the reality is the GFC did not impact Kiwiland all that much. So on that score, Key gets a free pass.

Then the earthquakes happened, starting in September 2010. All of a sudden real leadership was needed and Key did not seem to warm to the task. The mayor of Christchurch stood up, as did Gerry Brownlee Minister for earthquake recovery and Roger Sutton, most importantly Roger Sutton who headed CERA, the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority. When it suited the government, they unceremoniously dumped Sutton in what can only be described as an appalling act of betrayal.

Don't forget Key has blood on his hands over Allan Hubbard, the highly reputable, honest businessman, and tireless benefactor who was put into statutory administration by Key's toady, Bill English. Hubbard was an old man forced to defend himself and he died in a car crash while returning to Timaru after seeing his lawyer in Dunedin. The only way to describe this shameful matter is he was treated shabbily. Scales Corp was one of his companies and it is now listed on the NZX in some nightmare scenario.

Then just to confirm how selfish John Key is he's doing a runner before the hard work on rebuilding Kaikoura and the main trunk rail line and State Highway 1 begins. Key is all about window dressing, he can't face Kaikoura as he must be running out of mugs to do his work for him.

Under John Key, New Zealand continued to drift and it's worse off now than when he took over. He's running away, and that has to be considered failure.

John Key Resigns

No-one saw that one coming. John Key, New Zealand Prime Minister, is stepping down and won't seek re-election next year.

He's been an average PM. He muddled along in his jocular style, but there was no substance behind the man. I'd describe his approach as re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.

But now we're going to see true incompetence. Those lining up in the wings are genuine duds, just watch. New Zealand investors have a reason to be very nervous.

It was generally accepted that Key was going after King Dick Seddon's record. Now he won't even surpass Helen Clark. Key must have been offered the job of Chairman of Westpac or something. It's been known he fancied that kind of appointment, just not this soon.

American Football in Cody Wyoming

I've said before that I have a problem with elements of the game of American football. My main gripe is that it is possible to throw the ball out, I believe this play is called an incomplete pass. Quite often when a forward pass is attempted the ball goes out, and the offensive team retains possession.

This conflicts with the term foot-ball. In either Rugby League football, or Rugby Union football, or Australian rules football for that matter, intentionally throwing the ball out is a penalty, and possession is lost. A kick is awarded to the opposing team. This makes perfect sense as a player should not receive a 'free pass' so to speak and should kick the damn ball somewhere, it is called foot-ball after all.

Rant over. I was lucky to actually witness an American football game when in the US recently. The game was on Friday night under lights in Cody, Wyoming. The Cody Broncs were hosting the Worland Warriors.

The Cody Broncs won quite easily, which was kind of strange as I thought the players on the Worland team looked better. It might be that Cody had more players. I don't know and don't pretend to know the game.

It was funny to see Cody miss a kick for the extra point, how could anyone miss a kick that easy? Oh wait, I remember Stacey Jones missing one like that in Wellington. It does happen but shouldn't.

The reaction of the crowd in Cody wasn't hostile. This was quite heartening I thought. Maybe it was because the kick didn't matter. It was good to see cheerleaders and a big brass band too. Bands have disappeared in New Zealand these days. The game was played on an artificial turf, not as good as grass I have to say.

Who was watching this game? There were men and women, and school children, the men often had a jacket on with Cody Broncs emblazoned across the back. Clearly this game was important to them. The cheering was good natured, they clearly wanted their team to win but not at all costs. Sportsmanship was clearly something they valued.

I have stopped going to Rugby games in New Zealand. The equivalent of the game in Cody would be a 1st XV encounter in NZ. The atmosphere at 1st XV games in NZ has become very threatening, the crowd starts out in the stands, but they move down to the sidelines as the game progresses and they start abusing the players on both sides, even their own team. It can be very unpleasant. There's no band, no cheerleaders, just ignorant parents and former students all getting on the players backs.

It was a relief to see a game at long last where everyone has things in context. Clearly competing and winning was important. But more important was comradeship and community. When the game concluded the fans ran onto the field and cheered their heroes. There were no fights, no drunkenness and everyone was behaving themselves in Cody, Wyoming.

Greens Can't Be Trusted

The Greens are almost always wrong about everything and here's why:-

Myth: the world is over-populated.

Wrong: we are not even close to being over-populated. I'll give you this factoid to illustrate; if you took every person on planet earth and sent them to New Zealand's Stewart Island, they'd fit standing up shoulder to shoulder.

Here's a map of Stewart Island:-

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/Stewart_Island_map-en.svg/260px-Stewart_Island_map-en.svg.png

Another way of looking at this, I've flown the Siberian route from Tokyo to London, done it twice in fact. It takes twelve hours or thereabouts and during that flight about nine hours is spent flying over wilderness. The only time it is obvious that you're flying over population is the three hours coming down to London over western Europe.

Or if you don't like that example, try Los Angeles to London, same result, flying over the US and Canada, you look down and struggle to find any evidence of humanity.

Myth: Kyoto agreement and the rest will save the planet

Wrong: these so-called climate change agreements are there to protect Europe's interests and to transfer wealth from the industrialised world to the second and third world.

Why is 1990 the line in the sand with Kyoto? Why not 100 BC or 100 AD or any other year for that matter? The answer to this is simple; Europe knew that they had natural gas supplies coming on stream later in the 1990's and that at 1990 their emissions were unusually large. Hence they'd be able to easily meet their targets because their emissions were going to fall anyway, seeing as natural gas is far friendlier than burning fossil fuels.

I remember Nick Smith, that weaselling Minister for climate nonsense in New Zealand grandstanding around Kiwiland with his doctorate in civil engineering. outright lying to Kiwis about why they needed a new tax to save the planet, as if such a small nation could do anything about it. What Smith said and what was an outright lie, was that Kiwis would never be paying Russia to not cut down trees.

Why was Nick Smith telling a lie? He would have known about the Marrakesh amendment to Kyoto that did contain a provision that amounted to paying Russia to not cut down trees. That is a transfer of wealth from the first world to the second world. Outrageous communist nonsense, from those who have, to those who have never done a day's work in their lives.

Look at this another way if you don't like the above example. Imagine that that good old freedom fighter and consolidator of sensible societies everywhere, Genghis Khan, lived earlier, around the time of Hadrian. He wouldn't have been anywhere near as effective as trees stood in his way. There would have been no sweeping across the steppes as he'd have been dodging the forests, he'd have had to keep to the coastlines of the Black Sea and when he did that the Romans would have picked his armies off. They had a navy and they'd make landings behind him, cutting off his supplies.

Do you see my point? The Black Forest is called that because no light penetrated. It was vast, but now it's just this quaint patch of greenery.

Why the frig are we, new world people, expected to pay for their stupidity, that is, Eurotrash wingnuttery that saw them cut all their trees down. Any climate solution must involve Europe putting their trees back to create a carbon sink of some value.

Myth: Greens are really cute fluffy bunnies.

Wrong: the Greens everywhere are just the communist party re-branded. Back in the 70's and 80's members of the Greens today were often communists and no-one voted for them, ever. When the Berlin Wall fell and communism collapsed, or the regimes just morphed into totalitarian capitalism, these ideologues decided to jump ship and acquire a brand that was saleable. They chose Greens.

It's easy to see they're communists if you look carefully enough; they think the state is always right and the individual should submit to it, they don't like private property and they think profit is bad, and they're generally in favour of loose morals and try to undermine traditional family values. More importantly they oppose western industrialised countries having strong armies. Oh dear, don't be obvious there Greens.

The worrying thing is that Green ideology appears attractive to impressionable young people so it's over the us oldies to put these young people right. My suggestion, and I've done this with my own children, is never let anything Green get a free pass. Ridicule, object, condemn, but do not let Greens have a say in anything as they're the enemy and want to destroy our civilisation and must not be allowed to.

Fixing Zimbabwe

You may have seen that Zimbabwe has introduced a new currency. Back in 2008 they abandoned their worthless currency and adopted the US Dollar instead. Most transactions in Zimbabwe are now in US Dollars or the South African Rand.

In the west we don't get a fair picture of the reasons for the predicament Zimbabwe finds itself in, nor is there any reasonable debate about how to fix things. What we get instead, is a picture created by the British, that Zimbabwe's President, Robert Mugabe, is a fool and that white Zimbaweans are superior to everyone else. Neither picture is accurate.

Mugabe has done some remarkable things in Zimbabwe, when he took office the country was run to serve the white masters and the black community were third class citizens. He built a modern infrastructure which became the envy of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, he educated soundly and the country still has the highest literacy rate in sub-Saharan Africa, and he kept his word in fighting the Lord's Resistance Army and his word with the British.

Let's look at those last two matters. When the illegal white supremacist government of Southern Rhodesia was finally defeated, a meeting was held between the freedom fighting leaders which included Robert Mugabe, and the British. It was pointed out at this meeting that old Cecil Rhodes had carved up the territory, giving the whites huge tracts of fertile land in the high rainfall areas to the north, while blacks had been pushed to the infertile and low rainfall areas to the south (I'm generalising but this is the nub of it).

It was agreed that the British would fund land reform. This would effectively buy out the white farmers, and return those farms to black ownership. Something needs pointing out here, something missed by all western media; those farms are often as big as small European countries. The white owners did not work the land themselves, their farm managers and labourers, who were mostly black, did all the work.

What followed is clearly the fault of, firstly, the white farmers and then, secondly, the British. Mugabe can carry no blame at all, not one ounce of it. Those white farmers refused to sell up, they dug their heels in and became intransigent. Some might say fair enough, but consider this was stolen land to begin with.

These white farmers are prize bigots who talk to their staff like they're six years old. I can tell you now, talk to any farm labourer like that in New Zealand and they'd kill you. So I can safely say that Zimbabweans are a very reasonable bunch, given they've put up with being treated like children for so long.

So we had a situation of the white farmers sitting on valuable land and refusing to budge, Mugabe, quite reasonably, started applying pressure after waiting fifteen long years. When white farmers did budge, the British reneged, informing Mugabe they couldn't afford it. This is a country that could afford to pay back Lend Lease to the USA but not a poor country whose land they stole.

So Mugabe lost the plot and went berserk. Not excusable conduct but understandable. He made a huge mistake in then dividing up these farms amongst his cronies, instead of sensibly distributing the land amongst the farm managers. Smaller holdings of manageable size that one man and a labourer can work. Say, about 400 acres give or take.

The farm managers and labourers became displaced, and moved to the cities and raised shanty towns on the outskirts. They hated Mugabe and joined the MDC (Movement for Democratic Change), which became the opposition to Mugabe's Zanu-PF. Thing is, the MDC are an even bigger bunch of criminals than Zanu-PF and everyone in Zimbabwe knows it.

So everything starts going downhill, but had the British not reneged, everything would be different.

Then we often see the sight of the African Union honouring Mugabe, like why would they honour such a criminal (this is the slant western media take). What they don't mention is that, firstly, they're all aware of what Mugabe has done for his country, it is obvious he loves his country very much, and they all know as they hang their heads, that he's the one and only man there who kept his word with them.

The Lord's Resistance Army are the most vile and evil sick bastards on the planet. They make ISIL look like choir boys. Well, the big talking and big noting African Union talked up how they were going to deal with the Lord's Resistance Army, and bla de bla. Then when push came to shove, they all vanished, leaving Zimbabwe holding the door handle alone. Mugabe then broke his own country while keeping his word. That's why the hyper inflation and the destroyed currency.

Mugabe isn't a bad guy, he's a man of honour and principle, he's a good man, he fights evil and teaches children how to read and to do arithmetic (he's a former teacher after all). The way western media portray this great man is a travesty.

Okay so that said, how to fix this broken country? Answer, you could see this coming I know it, let New Zealand do it.

Zimbabwe doesn't trust its neighbours or they don't have the experience. The most untrustworthy is South Africa.

New Zealand gave Garfield Todd to Southern Rhodesia, their first liberal Prime Minister who came to oppose white minority rule. Mugabe would trust New Zealanders to do a decent job as he worked with Todd in his early years as a teacher.

New Zealand shares common history in overcoming land trouble with Britain, and they share a common interest in the game of cricket. Kiwis love playing cricket in Zimbabwe too, which is a plus.

The deal is this, let NZ's Reserve Bank and Treasury take over the running of the Zimbabwe economy under a management contract. NZ could even promise to have Zimbabwe qualify for a Cricket World Cup Semi-Final.

What NZ would do is have the fertile land properly surveyed and come up with a ballot system to allocate the newly created farms of manageable size. NZ would broker the deal whereby Britain fronts up with the cash to manage the process, they broke it, they can pay for it.

Then fiscal policy would need to be managed with the right commercial partners. This business of looking to North Korea would have to stop, but not involve relying on South Africa either. The Kiwis are best to do this negotiation as they've had Australia to get the better of, something it has been doing for nearly 200 years.

Buzz Aldrin: Get Well Soon

Buzz Aldrin is in our local hospital in Christchurch right now, we all wish him a speedy recovery:-

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/87113101/ailing-buzz-aldrin-second-man-on-moon-medically-evacuated-from-south-pole

I remember walking home from school right after we listened to the radio the teacher had fired up in the classroom. We'd listened to a broadcast of the first men on the moon and on that walk home I looked up into the sky, the moon was visible during daylight at that time and I was just awe struck that two men were there on its surface. Incredible.

Now we have these man-on-the-moon conspiracy theories, they're all loons. I've seen Aldrin interviewed and found his answer to one writer amusing. This writer made a living out of peddling conspiracy bullshit and called Aldrin up. When accused of lying about walking on the moon, Aldrin simply replied, he'd been there and walked around on it, so there.

Then Aldrin has been accosted at places like conventions. On Youtube you can find the moment he punches an accuser, it's wonderful, people like that need to be punched, good on you Buzz Aldrin, they're too stupid for words, just ;punch them right on the mouth.

Manifesto for New Zealand

The following are what I believe to be the critical policies to get New Zealand back on track and leading the world again. Seriously, at one stage little old NZ was top in the OECD, but that was so long ago there are few alive now who remember.

Keys to New Zealand success:-

1. Defence 

The opposite of the problem the United States has, NZ does not spend enough on defence. NZ needs to raise its defence spending to 2% of GDP. I suggest it take the 1.1% of GDP it now spends, take that as a constant and on top of that use the balance to (a) set up a professional Coast Guard service and (b) establish a permanent and full-time disaster relief agency, both bodies to be part of the defence force.

Rationale: think about employment and training, many young people would get the opportunity to learn something and make a contribution. They are denied the chance now. Add to that a readiness to deal with poaching of the fisheries, search and rescue and a better earthquake and tsunami response.

2. Immigration

Freeze immigration until house prices stabilise. The exceptions; marriage and family reunification and refugees.

Rationale: numbers equivalent to the population of New Plymouth arrive every year and many of these new immigrants add very little, they're either too old, over educated or they scarper to Australia at the first opportunity. NZ needs to think very carefully about its immigration policy, to start with, the housing stock has to exist to accommodate them. That isn't the case right now, so Kiwis should put themselves first and halt immigration until housing construction rises.

3. Manufacturing

Back manufacturers in tangible ways and raise the profile of NZ's quality manufactured goods.

Rationale: NZ fools itself into thinking there is such a thing as free trade. Every nation protects its own, it's just that tariff barriers have been lowered.

I'll give you three examples of protectionism; (a) Japan and their vehicle registration which means it's very hard for a car or truck to stay on the road for longer than six years, (b) US defence procurement and the Boeing and Lockheed Martin et al tie ups, (c) Australia and its not letting NZ apples in or bananas from anywhere and its strange requirement for 'lock-out' on industrial machines that means all imported machines must undergo alteration before being put to work - they're all protectionist.

New Zealand has an anaemic economy, with too many service and primary sector businesses and not enough secondary producers.

Industrial sectors NZ should dominate but don't - land clearing, logging, shipping, transport, aircraft.

* Land clearing: NZ was at one time covered with forest but it is now largely farmland with some forest. NZ makes virtually none of the types of machines used to do this work. You'd think that with Africa and South America needing this type of thing that NZ would be there with boots on but it just isn't.

* Logging is huge in NZ. It does make Yarders for pulling logs off hills, and some stuff; wire ropes and the like, but the big brands are from Finland or somewhere else. Why? Oh that's because the Finns and others back their manufacturers.

* NZ has a long coastline and relies on ships to trade, but it doesn't make any cargo ships. Just super-yachts, which don't carry cargo.

* Trailers are made in Kiwiland, but no tractor units or trucks of any kind, name that big Kiwi brand of truck.....Scania, that's Sweden.

* Pacific Aerospace is NZ's only aircraft manufacturer, which is very strange when you consider that NZ invented powered flight and use aircraft extensively (Richard Pearse was the first to fly, not the Wright Brothers, the latter just had the better propaganda machine).

4. Crime

Bring back the death penalty for crimes that have an aggravating factor, like murder with torture, or serial rapists. Bring back hard labour for repeat offenders that are violent.

Rationale: It costs too much to incarcerate these criminals. Execute the bad ones, and work the almost as bad ones. Consider remote locations like building a road from Karamea to Collingwood in the South Island, and a rail line from Gisborne to Whakatane in the North.

5. Education

Take education seriously by making teachers teach.

Rationale: Since the 1970's the system has been skewed toward promoting able teachers out of the classroom and into management. If NZ wants to see better results, it must pay good teachers to stay in the classroom.

6. Social Policy and Full Employment

Anyone registered unemployed should be given a meaningful job.

Rationale: Anyone who wants to work should work. Those not registered or on a sickness benefit clearly either don't want to or cannot. One way of doing this - getting everyone a job - is to take all employers with 10 or more employees and pay them to employ people on the minimum wage, with the government topping up between that amount and a living wage. Rock and hard place approach, each employer would be told how many new hires they have to take, if they decline, any penalty interest on overdue sums to Inland Revenue would double.

7. Oil, Gas and other Minerals

Establish a State mineral exploration company, focussing on New Zealand and the Pacific Islands.

Rationale: NZ should be exploring all the time. There is a lot of oil and gas and other minerals in NZ, just no-one looks very hard. Take the Takaka Hill for instance, it has iron ores, marble, limestone, soap stone, but it is hardly mined. Parliament and the Beehive is made of beautiful marble from Takaka but if you asked at any school, the children would likely guess the marble was from China or Italy.

8. Political reform

Make government a lot smaller, return to first past the post elections and have fewer representatives and fewer state and public servants. Let people get on with their lives without the ever-present government meddling.

Rationale: structure NZ more like a multinational company. It has only 4.5 million people but a bureaucracy more suitable to a country with ten times the existing population.

9. Taxation reform

Reduce GST to the same rate as Australia, reduce the excise tax on cigarettes, scrap tax refunds like Working for Families which favour a certain few.

Rationale: keep it simple with a GST rate that is easy to calculate and apply, and does not act as a disincentive to consume (lower prices). Thresholds could be lowered from the $60,000 now to $30,000, bringing more into the tent who must pay GST.  With cigarettes, the poor have few pleasures and they're increasingly going to more harmful drugs, like meth and alcohol.

Then Working for Families sets poorer families with children apart, they are more favoured than anyone else. The young and childless along with the rich of any kind, subsidise the lower earners with kids. Here's a radical idea, how about not taxing that much to begin with and let people just get on and make their own choices. Hmm? Working for Families simply funds someone's TAB, booze and tobacco budget. It's cynical vote buying and both Labour and National are guilty.

10. Promote NZ 

Establish a 24 hour news service and broadcast on cable television in the USA and Europe. NZ has brilliant documentaries and newscasters, the rest of the world needs to see them, and they then learn and buy our stuff.

Rationale: most of the world forms its opinions from what they see on the TV and the rest of the world sees very little of NZ. The cost of setting this up could be quite cheap, just sell off TV2 as a commercial channel and put TV1, both state owned, onto the news and doco format. Or buy TV3 when they next go bust and do the same with them, sell of the profitable radio stations (or float them on the NZX) and put the TV3 channel over to news and doco. A deal could be struck with the excellent Maori Television for content.

11. Sport 

Get all children into sport, whether cross-country running or chess, what that sport is doesn't matter.

Rationale: When it comes to sporting potential, someone good at something finds the sport fun. NZ needs to find what children are good at and support them. Right now, finding that right sport is a grab bag of wrong-headed thinking.

Take every child from birth, blood test, register them then test at age 6, 9, 12, 15 and 18. Test for everything, then send them to the right class and the right school and the right sport.

NZ has many Steven Adams out there, I know as I played basketball alongside them, they need developing and promoting. Why is NZ not all over this?

12. Infrastructure

Build infrastructure and do not favour one sector over another.

Rationale: the Kaikoura earthquakes remind us how fixated NZ has become on one form of transport, in this case road transport. NZ was caught with its pants down, State Highway 1, the national road is blocked and now how to move stuff? Air is expensive, rail blocked as well and little or no coastal shipping. That is a serious headache for anyone living in the South Island.

But NZ can't just stop there; the sewer pipes will need replacing, bridges right across the nation are in the same boat as the sewer pipes. People may remember that when the rail network last went bust, the government subsequently got it up and running but had to put in a huge amount toward repair or replacement of the rail bridges. That work was due and rail is a lot older than the road network. By my calculation thousands of NZ's road bridges, which are largely managed by often poorly governed local authorities, will be due for major upgrade or replacement in about 20 years. This is an expenditure far more serious than the ballooning retired population. Being brutal about this, at least the oldies like me will one day die. But when those bridges collapse, that's it, NZ will be finished.

The chickens are coming home to roost, get those prisoners to work.

13. Maori

No more handouts via the treaty settlement process. Offer semi-autonomy to certain tribes.

Rationale: bulk fund the noisy tribes. See if they can hack it on their own. Don't allow them to raise taxes, an army, or conduct foreign policy, but let them be like Wales. Wales is part of the U.K. but still a principality.

The benefit for NZ would be winning first, second and third place at the Rugby World Cup. That wouldn't happen of course as the IRB would ban NZ, that kind of thinking is for the 'home' nations only (just joking, NZ'd win first, second, and third of both Rugby World Cups - Union and League). And think about two things, change the national anthem to be only sung in Maori, that way it sounds acceptable, and change the name of NZ to Aotearoa, initially Aotearoa New Zealand or Aotearoa Kiwiland. NZ'd enter the Olympics ahead of Australia, which is key I think.

New Zealand, why call a country New when it isn't, and Zealand when that's a territory in the Netherlands; a country that supposedly 'discovered' NZ but the discoverer didn't set foot on land, he ran away when the Maori killed one of his men for having the temerity to invade. Do you see my point? NZ is not Dutch and does not run away.

Kiwis are not that imaginative with names I know, hence Short Vly (sic) off the road between Blenheim and Nelson, at least the signwriter had a sense of humour. Plus too many Bull Creek, Small Creek, Long Valley, and of course the very imaginative North and South Island because New Ulster and New Munster was too complicated. Don't get me started on all those places called N****r something, usually called that after a black Labrador, which are traditionally called N****r (watch the Dambusters movie from the 50's if you don't believe me). When it comes to naming things, Kiwis are not at all imaginative, so Aotearoa makes a lot of sense as it's easy to use. Like Zimbabwe is better than Southern Rhodesia, though it's the bottom of the alphabet, but at least they dropped the name of a genocidal maniac.

14. Regional Development

Send government departments to the regions - disperse.

Rationale: this protects NZ in case of natural disaster by not concentrating services and spreads incomes, it means government would be cheaper. Along with Maori semi-autonomy, the regions get a boost from the employment and construction.

15. Health

Concentrate on day clinics and reach into schools and workplaces. Take healthcare to the masses, don't sit behind the desk at the hospital. Expand free healthcare to include basic orthodontic for children up to age 18 and dental surgery for adults once every four years. Free teeth cleaning annually.

Rationale: NZ is getting ever bigger hospitals and worse services. Reverse this by going small, locate clinics for same day procedures close to the people.

16. Police

Freeze the existing police budget but create a new force similar to the Federal police in Australia dealing with serious and international crime.

Rationale: drug dealers, precursor shippers, organised crime, internet scammers look out. The existing police do a good job at the lower level but they're out of their depth on the serious stuff. Arm these Federal police officers heavily and give them sweeping powers of arrest and seizure. That'd sort the gangs out, lock em up on sight; this is possible if you create a force with the powers to do so.

17. Retirement

Over the next decade the baby boomers will be retiring and they'll begin drawing on National Superannuation. This is really not a problem as they're investors and enterprising, they'll manage and so will NZ.

There is really nothing that needs to be done, apart from two innovations; look at retirement being on a sliding scale, paying less if retiring from age 60 (you can retire as early as 55 in Australia), or paying more from age 68. By taking bets like this, the government can smooth expenditure, some people who take a later retirement age (and more money) may actually die early and be no cost at all. Those going for early retirement would receive less over the subsequent 15 years, only catching up on those who retire at age 65 when they reach 75, again they may die before getting there.

The other problem is retirees are strongly incentivized to invest in rental housing as the capital gain is not taxed. There are peculiar whiz bang rules that make a genuine international portfolio of shares almost impossible for the small investor. By simply changing the rules to put capital gains from share investment onto the same footing as rental housing, as well as only paying tax on actual income from dividends, would diversify investors into stocks on the NYSE and Nasdaq and make retirement savers more independent and less vulnerable.

******

There you have it, follow this prescription and watch NZ take off. Right now it's sinking, sorry to have to tell you that, but it's true.

Update: Advantages of Investing in Stocks

I have pointed out how investing in stocks or shares can achieve outstanding returns. I tipped Bradken (ASX: BKN) back then, you can read about it here >>>http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/06/advantages-of-investing-in-stocks.html

Check out Bradken now; AUS$3.19

Jan 21 they were AUS$0.38

Jun 9 they were AUS$1.22

As at Nov 30...they are AUS$3.19

That's just one year; AUS$50,000 invested upon my tip on June 10, would have acquired 40,000 shares (rounding and allowing for brokerage and such), and that stake would now be worth AUS$127,600.

Also, check my portfolio tracker, now up 48% this year. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521

My favourites, Oshkosh (NYSE: OSK ) and Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN)  are up 103% and 72% respectively

Kaikoura Earthquake: Dredging the Harbour

Who is paying for dredging Kaikoura harbour?

After the earthquake, which measured 7.8 on the Richter scale, the harbour floor has been raised and now the Whale Watch and Seal Watch businesses cannot take to sea. The floor is solid rock, and dredging will involve cutting, drilling and blasting.

Whale Watch is owned by the Ngai Tahu tribe and their commercial interests are substantial, they own commercial property and many businesses. That said, were they earthquake insured, and was the harbour asset insured by whoever owns it? If not why not? It's not like they didn't have fair warning as there have been thousands of earthquakes a few miles south of them and one of those quakes substantially wrecked the central business district of Christchurch with eastern residential areas a write-off as well.

In relation to the the port of Lyttelton, the port company received a large insurance payout as a result of the 2011 earthquake and those funds are being applied to port redevelopment. Are you with me so far?

The taxpayer should not be paying to dredge the harbour at Kaikoura as that is propping up private interests. If the taxpayer is stumping up, then they should receive a share of the businesses that operate out of that harbour - including Whale Watch.

Now I don't want to sound churlish. Heaven forbid, but I've noticed complete silence on the subject of who is paying for this job of dredging Kaikoura harbour.

NYSE: Harley-Davidson

Is Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) a good buy I keep asking myself.

I enjoyed the book "Growing Up Harley-Davidson" by Jean Davidson. It's the kind of book that grows on you over time. But something that struck me was how much motorcycles were part of everyday life back in the day. Motorcycles were used to get to work, go anywhere, and with sidecar they carried the family too.

Now in most of the developed world, motorcycles are a luxury item for the most part, maybe sport bike at times too, and tourer rarely.

Harley-Davidson sit at the top of the tree, they're big and hardly a sport bike. They're too expensive to be a family get around. They appear to be a status symbol with a loyal following. And that following is getting older all the time. Evidently the average age of people who attend the bike gathering at Sturgis in the northern Black Hills of South Dakota, is 52. All the hotties are professional models and shipped in and paraded around. Many of the riders haul their bikes in, ride them around for the event and then haul them behind their RV back to where they came from. A bit lame eh.

Where are all the young people getting into a Harley? Is the Fast and Furious generation interested in these bikes?

In the developing world the scooter or step-thru is the motorcycle of choice. They do everything on these bikes, but Harley-Davidson does not make anything like that. I read how sales of step-thu's are taking off in China. One example was of a gum boot manufacturer (Wellington's) setting up in China by taking over a bicycle factory. The workforce were all the previous bicycle workers and they duly arrived at work riding their push bikes. Within a year and on higher pay they had all bought a step-thu motorcycle.

If you think about all of Asia being like the above example, Harley-Davidson are missing out completely.

Then there are scrambles (Motocross) and trials bikes. Often they're two-stroke. Harley-Davidson has nothing in this segment either. They got out of Buell, which I understand fitted into the Enduro segment.

But following the Peter Lynch, Beating the Street type of thinking, the Harley-Davidson company may still represent value to an investor. The brand is worth a lot, and perhaps is not fully exploited (have they got a Kardashian on board?).

Currently it is hard to find an NYSE company that is sound and cheap. Harley-Davidson appears to be that at a P/E of less than 16. They also pay a dividend.

I'm of two minds and am interested in what you all think. Does Harley-Davidson need to broaden its offering?

Rugby Quidditch

J.K. Rowling invented the sport of Quidditch in her ripping yarn about Harry Potter and his friends. It's a game that resembles Australian Rules Football, except players ride broomsticks, which I'm sure you'll agree isn't exactly practical in the muggle world.

I have devised rule changes to the game of Rugby Union which incorporates Quidditch. Please refer to the image below for the scoring zones.

Here's how I'd change the game of Rugby to create Rugby Quidditch:-

Scoring:-

As now a try is five points, conversion two, drop kick three and penalty three points.

Then add; four points if scoring in the goal placed between the uprights above the crossbar (shown as yellow in the diagram), scoring is achieved by kicking a goal on the full (a punt) during general play and from beyond the 22 metre line (also a drop kick in certain instances, see note in blue at the foot of this post below). 

Then in the areas shown in pink on the diagram, if a try is scored in that area it counts as a Seek (new scoring term, still five points for the try with the conversion to follow as normal). Further, from beyond the line of the 22, if the ball kicked by the player designated Seeker drops on the full into the area, and lands without being touched in flight by any opposing player, the score is four points and the score also counts as a Seek. 

Three Seeks scored in one game by the same team and the game ends, meaning the Snitch has been caught. If the team that catches the Snitch is ahead on the scoreboard then they win, if behind then they lose.

Note that I've created some new things; a player is designated Seeker (likely the First Five Eighth/Fly Half), and only they can kick to the pink scoring area. If a team is behind on the scoreboard then they wouldn't want to score on the area in pink as it contributes to ending the game (the team would want to catch up). Conversely any team that was ahead would be trying to end the game and score in that area by scoring a try or by their Seeker kicking into it on the full from beyond the 22 metre line. Thus, defence would be paramount.

General rule changes:- 

Penalty kicks to touch could be restarted with a tap kick as in Rugby League, the option would be with the attacking team to choose; tap, lineout or scrum.

Lineouts would have no lifting in them, it would be a contest to jump. 

Scrums would be liberalised and twisting the scrum allowed.

Rucking would return; if a player is on the ground and in the way of the ball, the feet could be used to move them out of the way (as you used to able to do), and the ball moved with the feet, thus speeding up play.

If the ball passes through the yellow goal between the uprights off the kick-off, from a drop kick or penalty kick, this is either worth no points or no extra points (the goal worth four points must be scored off a punt from beyond the 22 metre line during general play).

Have a look at the diagram below, the extra goal and the scoring zones could be adjusted in size:-

Possible variation:-

The introduction of a Bludger; this is complicated so may not work. Bear in mind I've done away with lifting in the lineouts and gone back to rucking to make the game more difficult as I've introduced more ways to score. In effect I've reintroduced elements of the 1970's type of game.

A Bludger would change the game entirely. This would be a round ball that was soft on the outside but very heavy, with a core inside the ball that moved, making it somewhat irregular in flight. The Bludger could be possessed by any team and could only be used to take out a player carrying the oval shaped rugby ball (representing the Quaffle).

The Bludger would be secondary to the rugby ball itself, when play is dead, the Bludger is dead. When play restarts any player may keep the Bludger or challenge for it, the normal rules of offside and no forward pass still applies.

With this variation, I'd think two referees would be needed. If the Bludger goes out the linesman (assistant referee) would throw the Bludger in backwards over his head from where it went out, as in Aussie Rules. If the game is stopped before that can be done, then the Bludger is thrown in after play resumes.

How would it work? Take the Beauden Barrett runaway try for the All Blacks against France last weekend. If the French team possessed the Bludger they could throw it at Barrett to bring him down and prevent him scoring a try. It is most likely the Bludger would be held by the fullback, but it may also have a use with the flankers.

[Update: as a drop kick occurs in general play; then if the kick originates beyond the line of the 22 and passes through the goal marked yellow, then the score counts four points. Also, off a penalty kick or conversion, if the ball hits the goal marked yellow and rebounds into the field, it will count as a score either three or two points, only the uprights and cross bar rebound can prevent a score from a place kick]

New Zealand Government Put Their Own Interests First

What has been the first announcement from the government following the recent earthquakes, the worst of which has left State Highway 1 blocked and Kaikoura township isolated, hmm?

Oh that's right, they've made a major announcement to build themselves new buildings in Wellington. Suck on that Kaikoura, see, they really don't care about you.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/86929531/new-office-block-for-mps-on-the-cards

And that goes for the rest of the lower South Island too, you can just be fodder for the price gouging now going on.

Yes, price gouging, transport operators have lifted prices by as much as 20%, well the extra distance they travel doesn't change their fixed costs, and only adds a marginal increase in variable costs; taken across the whole load there is no way every shipment needs to increase by anywhere near as much (this is a simple arithmetic exercise but I guess if you're an investor then some of the listed transport companies make good buying right now).

C'mon New Zealand, you need to take this country back from these incompetent fools.

New Zealand: Sitting on a Goldmine

New Zealand has an abundance of natural resources, oil and natural gas, coal, agricultural land, you name it. There used to be an oil field up in Murchison, everyone has forgotten about it now. Someone lit a 'living flame' up there not so long ago, from a fissure where gas emits naturally.

If we're talking coal I describe it like this; coal from the Ruhr valley in Germany can power German industry for the next few hundred years (one of the world's biggest industrialised economies). Well, there is more coal on the West Coast of the South Island than in all of the Ruhr, and that's not counting the rest of New Zealand. By that measure, NZ can be powered by coal for the next few thousand years. It's a glut of natural resources. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

But given all these advantages I still think the one big thing New Zealand is sitting on, that I'm sure Americans would exploit fully, is not even this type of resource. The resource that we fail to fully exploit, it's so obvious we look at it every day, is an intellectual one, it's the people of the country itself and what they know.

What am I going on about? Start with soil, there are much more fertile areas out there, much better than anywhere in New Zealand. I swear that there are soils elsewhere so rich that if you were hungry you could eat it. Sow a seed and next day the plant is knee high (okay I made that bit up).

But what this does is develop lazy farmers. New Zealand farmers have to work on their soil, they have to make it work, and the reward is knowledge about how to farm.

Then take Africa, all of sub-Saharan Africa to be precise, and they have soil that needs work, constant management, except wars and arbitrary national boundaries have jiggered their prospects - until recently. But that is about to change, that's right, sub-Saharan Africa is emerging and it is vast, with farmland aplenty and they need the intellectual property to harness that potential.

I'm not talking about New Zealand farming Africa. Africans farm it, what NZ needs to do is license them to use our intellectual property, our computer programs, our systems, our guidance, our technology. You could take NZ's agricultural graduates, all of them, every year and send them to Africa and after two hundred years you'd have not even scratched the surface.

New Zealand should endeavour to be the Microsoft of food production. Why is it not doing this? Then there is Asia and South America, the world is literally NZ's proverbial oyster. But start with Africa first as they're honest and will pay, the rest of the world not so, they'd just rip NZ off, so start with Africa first, learn how to set things up; software engineering, consultancy, farm management, you name it, then roll the whole thing out with embedded security.

Xero I hear you say. No not them, and most of NZ's software companies are headed in the wrong direction, in my opinion (I don't own any Xero shares and likely will never own any), think agriculture and those areas that badly need farm technology to feed their people.