Kaikoura Earthquake and the South Island

I've been thinking about the recent Kaikoura earthquake and I may have badly underestimated its economic effect. I think the effects are far greater than is being discussed in the media. You don't hear much being said do you, and I'm not struck by the sense of urgency either, but I think the Kaikoura earthquake could be really bad and here's why:

The South Island is the engine that drives the New Zealand economy. I realise Auckland thinks it does, but the South Island is the productive sector and important earner of export dollars. The big earthquake has blocked State Highway 1 (SH1), preventing the efficient movement of freight by road from Christchurch and the rest of the lower South Island through to Picton (and the ferry to Wellington in the North Island). The Lewis Pass route is a serious detour and isn't a long term solution.

Then the rail line is also blocked. The freight from the South Island to Auckland can no longer be moved by rail.

With the road blocked not just points south of the blockage are affected, but also the top of the South Island. The ferry services across Cook Strait must now be in jeopardy as freight is now being moved by coastal shipping from Auckland to Lyttelton (Christchurch). Nelson, the whole Tasman region and Marlborough could become badly isolated if one or both ferry services shuts down.

Then without the rail line through Kaikoura, the whole rail system in the South Island is put in doubt. How many trains run on this system if not running from Christchurch to Picton? Not many is the answer. If the rail system goes bust and shuts down, those industries that do rely on rail (coal exports and milk powder plants) may become uneconomic after having to shift to road. In the case of coal exports, port facilities nearer the mines would take a while to upgrade.

The effects are much wider than just the immediate concern about Kaikoura, its farmers, tourist industry and residents. The whole South Island is going to feel the pinch.

We need to know what is being done and we need to know that the work is being given top priority. Leadership challenges within the government, what buildings they enjoy, cabinet line-ups and all that are a much lower priority. If SH1 and the rail line can't be fixed toot sweet then New Zealand is going to take a serious haircut.