Trump at Davos 2026

Donald Trump will be speaking at Davos, Switzerland, this Wednesday. No doubt he'll put the cat among the pigeons, but this got me thinking; is Donald J Trump really in charge, and if not, who is running the US?

Consider December 3, 2019, the date Kamala Harris announced she was withdrawing from the 2020 presidential election. According to official figures, she raised more than $40 million toward her campaign. That's a lot of money, and easily enough to continue into the Democratic Party primaries held in 2020. Personally, I believe that date in 2019 is a signpost to the fix being in, Joe Biden was to be the next president, and the most likely challenger, Bernie Sanders, was derailed, marginalised, and dismissed at every turn. Despite that, Sanders did rather well in the primaries, winning the largest state, California. 

Then, with Joe Biden installed and his running mate announced, in the form of Kamala Harris no less, he campaigned from his basement and won a clearly rigged election to become the 46th President of the US. The following four years were chaotic, and it was clear that Joe Biden was not in charge. He couldn't be, as he was clearly suffering from dementia. 

Then, leading into the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump experienced several attempts on his life, one of which was nearly successful. This happened in Butler, Pennsylvania, and yet do you ever hear about this today? It is as if a cone of silence has descended over the issue; it is never to be discussed. However, Trump survived and became the 47th President. Is it clear that Donald J Trump is in charge? It isn't clear to me at all. Rather like Joe Biden, he appears to be managed too, with others making decisions on his behalf.

I'll cut to the chase: over the last few years, I believe we've been witnessing a power struggle between factions that actually run the US. The faction that now runs things was ultimately successful. What that means for the rest of the world is more disruption and change to the accepted rules. 

Liberation Day

April 2nd., 2025 is almost here and we will soon find out what effect Trump's tariff regime will have on world trade. While I think it unlikely, I wouldn't be surprised if some overseas based manufacturers pull out of the US market altogether, just to make doing business simpler. 

https://apnews.com/article/trump-new-tariffs-liberation-day-import-taxes-118d73f50e5133ef3d9598aed6661a6c

As he announced 25% auto tariffs last week, he alleged that America has been ripped off because it imports more goods than it exports.

“This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America,” Trump said. “We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe.”

<snip>

The Republican president plans to tax imported pharmaceutical drugs, copper and lumber. He has put forth a 25% tariff on any country that imports oil from Venezuela, even though the United States also does so. Imports from China are being charged an additional 20% tax because of its role in fentanyl production. Trump has imposed separate tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico for the stated reason of stopping drug smuggling and illegal immigration. Trump also expanded his 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% on all imports.

US Trade War Economics Lesson

A useful lesson in how tariffs and uncertainty in business ends up wrecking the economy. Everyone should take note - be careful what you wish for. 

I have embedded a video below which covers some important areas. Caleb Ragland at the end makes good points, but I think he's misguided, it appears the Trump administration intends harm on the US economy and to international trade. 

Mr Ragland is president of the American Soybean Association. He's from Kentucky, a US state very similar to New Zealand, agriculture is important to both, although NZ has the greater GDP. Ragland's soybean crop is exported to China. China alone imports 60% of all exported soybean. So, a trade war could wreck the livelihoods of soybean growers, as China may substitute US exports with those of other countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay or even Australia. 

Early in the video CBS look at dairy farming in the US. Lack of clarity with regard immigration policies, leads to uncertainty. The claim is made that dairy farms in the US cannot function without using undocumented workers. That sounds unusual to my ears, as NZ is the world's largest dairy exporter and it too has labour shortages, but the country brings in farm labour from places like the Philippines. They're in the country legally and have a path to citizenship and eventually farm ownership (or as sharemilkers). Tariffs will not help as input costs rise, giving the dairy farmer an added burden.

What I'm describing is a perfect storm: the US economy could be brought to its knees. Warren Buffett always cautions; never bet against the US economy. Well, this time he may be wrong. 

Tucker Carlson: Big Government Will Always Save Wall Street

Tucker Carlson describes how easy money ends up being the opposite. The fall will be very hard.

 

The De-Population Bomb

An intelligent interview on what happens when the population declines. Give this time to digest, it contains a lot of information that must be addressed at some point:

US Diesel Stocks Running Low

Just putting this here for you to ponder. It is reported that the US is down to 25 days of diesel left in the system. If stocks become depleted, nothing moves, farming stops, diesel is that critical to everything. Places like New Zealand will really suffer as the US has huge buying power and they'll bid up the price, meaning NZ will be left with nothing.

From the US:

US is running out of diesel

Priorities are Wrong

Study the map:

CF Industries Announces Fertiliser Delays

Farmers in the US are facing delays or non-delivery of critical fertiliser supplies just as the planting season begins. This could lead to serious food shortages in a few months when harvesting begins and crop yields fall.

See this link from CF Industries: https://www.cfindustries.com/newsroom/2022/union-pacific-shipping-restrictions

Then, we have the restriction of exports from China due to the Shanghai lockdowns, and war in the Ukraine leading to no crops being planted at all.

For New Zealand, it gets worse too. The closure of its one oil refinery means: if the supply chain cannot deliver finished fuels, farmers cannot produce as they need diesel to run their tractors. We are sitting on the precipice and are about to fall off the cliff.

Global Supply Chain Stressed

This is what happens when you interfere with the supply chain - chaos. Back when the lockdowns started I predicted shortages and ultimately this will result in hunger, potentially riots (a few already, Chile being an example), and in some parts of the world, famine. 

What I'm talking about are actions that stop the conveyor. I have quite a bit of experience with logistics, raw material processing being my top skill. I can tell you this very easily: when the conveyor stops, you lose a lot. 

The global supply chain is one very large conveyor. It is slowly breaking down. The port of Los Angeles/Long Beach is one of the largest ports in the world. It is a vast contiguous port mass where they handle 20+ ships at any one time, and where they stack road trailers on top of one another over acres of staging areas, ready for attaching to the truck prime movers that haul loads out of the port to anywhere in the western United States. From there cargo also moves under bond into Mexico, through inland entry points as far away as El Paso in Texas. 

What's going on? The USA is experiencing shortages on shelves right now and things are not getting any better. With a lack of ships and COVID restrictions, ships are waiting to enter port for as long as it takes to transit the Pacific. Bear in mind this is trade of the largest economy in the world being affected. 

Little New Zealand is going to be hit really hard, you've only seen the start of this. NZ may find itself unable to export. Yes, unable to export. What you need to do is scream (yes, scream) to your local member of parliament about this. They're too stupid to realise the extent of the problem. The-global-supply-chain-is-breaking-down. 

Please study the link: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-video-shows-massive-scope-of-california-box-ship-traffic-jam?utm_source=wnd&utm_medium=wnd&utm_campaign=syndicated

Recession and the Upside

Due to the coronavirus, oil output, general stupidity on the part of governments regarding their levels of debt, private companies borrowing too much and whatever else; we are now in a worldwide recession. This will likely last the entire year. People are going to lose their jobs, they don't deserve to but companies, especially large companies, will use this event to shed staff. It's going to get worse before it gets better, let's put it that way.

Is there an upside to any of this, apart from the obvious, plenty of bargains for the cashed up investor. The main upside is all of these silly Green initiatives are toast. I'm talking about all those things the taxpayer funds, whether it is kerbside recycling or electric vehicles. Consumers are not going to be spending, they'll have to take the cheapest and most efficient option, out goes so-called Green. Green is not really Green I hope you realise, the whole thing is an exercise in fleecing you, me and everyone else. The only people who win are the crooks coming up with their silly ideas.

In the not too distant future, soon after the airlines get their bailouts (I hate to say it, they likely will get their bailouts), the Green companies will be crying to survive. Don't let them get access to your hard earned dollar.

Oil Price Tumbles

The oil price is tumbling and that's a good thing. Oil feeds into every part of the economy and now the price of goods can come down. Consumers are going to have some hard earned cash in their pockets for a change.

The collapse in oil price is partly due to the Coronavirus and a fall in demand as people stay at home, but also because Russia and Saudi Arabia disagree on oil output and have begun pumping furiously. They can keep that up as far as I'm concerned.

This spells trouble ahead for Wall Street. Many American companies associated with oil have loans maturing soon, and they don't look as good with the price of oil being so low. I explain it like this; if a company is now worth $10 billion and has $6 billion in debt all maturing soon, and the price of oil slips leaving the company now worth $7 billion, it cannot roll over the debt as it doesn't have enough net equity on its balance sheet. It would be able to raise about $4 billion, meaning $2 billion has to be tipped in by shareholders. Across the board that's going to embarrass many investors and some companies will collapse. The message is - don't have too much debt.

Coronavirus and the Recession

Recession, that's what the world is now facing and we need to take this seriously. Ignore advice from financial planners and the like, they have a vested interest in saying it is all temporary, the outlook is good, just invest in their particular schemes. Oh right, invest in their proposals. Actually how about not taking that advice.

Now there will be opportunities, bargain buys. If governments have any sense they will allow this to happen, with capitalism you have the freedom to go bust. Back during the GFC, governments rescued certain industries and companies, effectively denying investors those bargains. What that did was prop up ineffective and failing businesses that were poorly managed. They kept going and they're still around and that's bad. The advantage of capitalism - it's by no means a perfect system but it does do some things - is it does weed out the weak.

Then after weeding out the weak, we need to have a serious think about the way forward and away from relying so heavily on countries like China. What this virus exposes is the stupidity of relying on key goods coming from far away. The whole economy is held to ransom because of a shutdown in that far away country. That can't be allowed to continue.

The USA will be fine, they'll address the matter. Their tariffs on goods from China began the process of addressing this vulnerability, but now it will gather pace backed by the resolve to continue. In countries such as Australia and New Zealand, it is highly likely they'll continue to lie to themselves and be less independent, akin to seaworthy vessels adrift on the high seas without a rudder.

Peter Thiel

Welcome to New Zealand, Peter Thiel. I hope you like the clear air in Wanaka.

In case you hadn't noticed already, New Zealand has something called the great Kiwi clobbering machine. Being a recent Kiwi, just finding your feet so to speak, you may not know how this works exactly.

This is how it works; some minor politicians and assorted instant experts on everything will say what they like about you, most of which will be wrong, all of which will be based on information taken out of context or will be just completely made up shit. None of this will matter as they just get to make things up as they go along and this has been the way of things since time began.

What you are expected to do in response is genuflect and suck everyone's dick. I'm sure you won't want to do this and this is where it gets interesting - personally I like interesting stuff so I hope you don't do as you're told - you are best to hit back and hit back hard. Think like Rugby, if you don't tackle then you'll get beaten by lots. So tackle and it's always best if you tackle hard.

How you approach this is entirely over to you. I've got no idea exactly what you should do as I'm not in your shoes. But heh, you're a tech guru who backed Facebook and Paypal, neither of which do I fully understand as I live anchored in the real world of nuts and bolts, but I'm sure given this tech savvy nature of yours that you can get even. Be imaginative.

Anyway nice to see a fellow Kiwi doing well, give old Donald Trump my warm regards. How about a nice trade deal between the US and Kiwiland, one that gives NZ unlimited access to the USA for its agricultural output. Call me an optimist.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/88756668/politicians-demand-answers-on-peter-thiels-new-zealand-citizenship

Blog changes in 2017

Thank you to all my readers, you've all helped contribute to making this blog highly successful. I don't want to blow my own trumpet or anything, but right now I could be the most read New Zealand based blogger worldwide. I've got tens of thousands of readers, starting with the greatest number in the USA, then New Zealand, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, Canada, Indonesia, Australia and Ireland - in that order.

Just recently I've started gaining readers in Portugal, Poland, Spain, Latvia, Iraq and Morocco.

In the early days, people read about new trucks for the New Zealand army the most, but then I reported on the Australian who claims to be the first son of Prince Charles and his current wife Camilla. It went ballistic and my blog was reported in the overseas press.

But then something happened; people also started reading my Snob's Guide on moving to New Zealand (for those Americans thinking about this since Donald Trump has been elected) and about New Zealand and my plans for making it better. Those blog posts took over from the ones about the army trucks and Prince Charles. We are talking a lot of page views each day and rising.

I'm going to continue writing in a similar vein through 2017. I'll try to keep things somewhat eclectic, not just the same old same old. I plan on writing a third book, non-fiction, a Snob's Guide to Everything New Zealand and anything else interesting, and I'll keep you all updated on when it's due for publication. It shouldn't take all that long, I'll just rant at my middle child and then write these rants down soon after.

Forum

I plan on starting a forum. Any advice about which forum provider is best is much appreciated, I don't want to make a bad choice as it'll be hard to switch and keep the data once up and running. It'll be a free forum, with a link to it at the top of the blog alongside the other links.

The other thing to consider is the structure of the forum, the categories to use, making navigation easy. If you have a preference please let me know. There is a contact form >>> to the right which sends straight to my gmail. I check it several times a day.

Prizes

As an innovation I may offer prizes to readers (guess what the prizes will be...anyone?). These prizes may not be easy to win, and could involve hard quizzes on history, politics, economics, sport and general wingnuttery.

Contributors 

At the moment only I write for this blog. But if you think you're up to it and can write a thousand words of cogent argument about something sensible (and if not sensible then it must be funny) then send it to me and if acceptable then I'll publish it with you getting credit. There will be no payment, but you do get credit. Think comment pieces, any original research or investigative work would be better placed in the forum.

To be a contributor you must use your real name, no aliases. I use my real name, and finding me is pretty easy, my details are in the NZ Yellow Pages online. So write away and submit to me, if you're hard to find I may ask to ring you up to check that you exist. If things go well and you become trusted, then you may get to register as a site user and post directly. This will not be that common as I'm a stickler for correctness, spelling and such, and try to eliminate errors. So to get the right to post directly on this site, you'd have to be very clean.

I've decided not to monetise the site at this stage, advertisements are annoying. But you can buy my books, that's always welcome: https://www.amazon.com/Ken-Horlor/e/B00VQEETJW/ref=dp_byline_cont_ebooks_1

Anyone who contributes a piece that is published can have a link to their work too, no problem at all. Whether you provide a product or service, or you're promoting your talent or selling a book, it's all good but just remember, not too much shameless self promotion.

Why contribute? I've spent years on my little blog and have just broken through, by all means start your own blog but get ready for a long lead time. If you write and publish here, you'll get noticed much faster as you're going to be read a lot right from the word go. If you're a competitor, that is another blogger, then we may co-operate, that is we provide reciprocal pieces, together with links and credit both ways.

That's all folks, have a nice Christmas and great New Year, let's hope 2017 proves to be an interesting year. I'm sure it will.

NYSE: Harley-Davidson

Is Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) a good buy I keep asking myself.

I enjoyed the book "Growing Up Harley-Davidson" by Jean Davidson. It's the kind of book that grows on you over time. But something that struck me was how much motorcycles were part of everyday life back in the day. Motorcycles were used to get to work, go anywhere, and with sidecar they carried the family too.

Now in most of the developed world, motorcycles are a luxury item for the most part, maybe sport bike at times too, and tourer rarely.

Harley-Davidson sit at the top of the tree, they're big and hardly a sport bike. They're too expensive to be a family get around. They appear to be a status symbol with a loyal following. And that following is getting older all the time. Evidently the average age of people who attend the bike gathering at Sturgis in the northern Black Hills of South Dakota, is 52. All the hotties are professional models and shipped in and paraded around. Many of the riders haul their bikes in, ride them around for the event and then haul them behind their RV back to where they came from. A bit lame eh.

Where are all the young people getting into a Harley? Is the Fast and Furious generation interested in these bikes?

In the developing world the scooter or step-thru is the motorcycle of choice. They do everything on these bikes, but Harley-Davidson does not make anything like that. I read how sales of step-thu's are taking off in China. One example was of a gum boot manufacturer (Wellington's) setting up in China by taking over a bicycle factory. The workforce were all the previous bicycle workers and they duly arrived at work riding their push bikes. Within a year and on higher pay they had all bought a step-thu motorcycle.

If you think about all of Asia being like the above example, Harley-Davidson are missing out completely.

Then there are scrambles (Motocross) and trials bikes. Often they're two-stroke. Harley-Davidson has nothing in this segment either. They got out of Buell, which I understand fitted into the Enduro segment.

But following the Peter Lynch, Beating the Street type of thinking, the Harley-Davidson company may still represent value to an investor. The brand is worth a lot, and perhaps is not fully exploited (have they got a Kardashian on board?).

Currently it is hard to find an NYSE company that is sound and cheap. Harley-Davidson appears to be that at a P/E of less than 16. They also pay a dividend.

I'm of two minds and am interested in what you all think. Does Harley-Davidson need to broaden its offering?

Trump to Double Growth?

While Donald Trump said enough during the campaign to cancel himself out as any kind of decent human being, we have to now deal with four years of his administration. Will it be good for business and investment, or not?

My guess is there will be growth in construction jobs, that's Trump's thing. Overall the following link appears very bullish, read on and consider if any of it comes to pass:-

How President Trump will double growth and jobs

Trump off to a Good Start

Never judge a book by its cover, or so they say. Those protesting Donald Trump likely do not hold with that view. 

But let's keep an open mind shall we. His appointment of Reince Priebus as chief of staff and Stephen Bannon as chief strategist and chief counsellor has the look of a man who intends to effect change. On the one hand Priebus is there to keep the ship on course, while Bannon is there to shake things up. 

https://www.ft.com/content/704a2dfc-a9ca-11e6-a0bb-97f42551dbf4

The voters expect something to be done about their falling standard of living and job security. If things continue to go downhill, expect an even firmer backlash. My guess is the GOP know it and they're looking over their shoulders.