Entire History of Roman Britain (55 BC - 410 AD)

I thought this was a very good summary of Roman Britain, with all you need to know if you haven't got a few years to read up on the subject:

Getting Greens Below 5% Threshold

New Zealand is saddled with a political party that represents anachronistic political ideologies, a party of wreckers with their snouts in the trough. That party is The Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand (I'll just call them Greens). They offer nothing constructive.

How to get rid of these people? The task will not be an easy one but it is achievable. That's because as the decades have passed, voters have grown up and abandoned the Greens. These days they're perpetually below 10%, stuck close to the all-important 5% threshold which would see them exit parliament if absent an electorate. Currently, they have one electorate seat, that of Auckland Central plus nine other members of parliament off the party list.

Who or what are the Greens? They're communists re-branded; red becomes green. Politically, they like to position themselves as having a monopoly on all things environmental (they don't). In recent years they've started to misrepresent themselves to the public by saying they're in government. They're not in government and never have been. That makes them shameless liars too. 

Before I get to what can be done about the Greens, a little primer on how NZ's Mixed Member Proportional system or MMP works in effect. 

When NZ adopted its electoral system in the mid 1990's it was believed it would solve the recurring problem of minority governments. It didn't do that at all and minority governments became the norm just as they had before. But MMP turned out to be worse than its first-past-the-post predecessor. That's because any party making the 5% threshold could hold the whip hand. A party with tiny support got to dictate the direction of the country. This condition was particularly evident when in 2017, Labour and tiny NZ First formed a minority government that had a smaller proportion of the popular vote than the opposition National party. Labour and NZ First got to govern through the Greens offering their confidence and supply vote in the House of Representatives. What a shambles.

But wait, things are looking up. The Greens are now vulnerable. They're still in opposition but have an understanding with the ruling Labour government. This gives them a couple of ministerial positions outside cabinet, so long as they don't criticise. They're muzzled. Silenced but not in government. Neither Arthur nor Martha. 

The Greens won't see any benefit. Labour will claim credit for anything positive, while Greens won't be able to let rip as any opposition party is expected to do. They'll come across as neutered. Time then to take action against them.

I can imagine people thinking, that's not very nice. Well no, it isn't but that's the way MMP works. It is a negative system, learn how to use it. Yes, a negative system. I'll give you a theoretical example to illustrate.

Let's say one major party has 30% support while another much smaller party has 6% going into an election. Both are safely in parliament because they make the 5% threshold. To be the government, the much larger party must get to at least 40% and then look for a coalition partner to get itself into a winnable position. Why not 50%? That's because of wasted votes which can be as much as 10% of all votes cast (these are votes for parties which fail to make 5% or which cannot win an electorate seat). 

So that 30% party works its butt off and manages to achieve 43%. They then need the 6% party to get itself into government. That 6% party has just sat there and done nothing but it gets rewarded. That's what makes MMP a negative system.

It gets worse. What should the 30% party do knowing its efforts will be coat-tailed by the much smaller party? It is actually more effective to drive that smaller party below the 5% threshold, making votes for it wasted. Then all this large party needs to form a government is find a party with a lone seat or two, with a small voter base. This in effect is what has happened, with the Maori party and ACT both performing this role.

To remind the reader, MMP is a negative system.

How to get rid of these communists, given they offer nothing, coat-tail others efforts and are enemies of civilisation. Three broad approaches appeal:

1. Organise a band of fifth columnists and have them join the Greens to wreck the party from within. Do this by having them promote every wackadoodle and extreme viewpoint the party comes up with. Help elect extremist elements within the Greens to high position within the party, and see the party turned off by the electorate and thus become unelectable. This is quite achievable as the party harbours these extremist elements in any case. It wouldn't be hard to fan the flames.

These fifth columnist elements should operate in semi-autonomous cells and have regular virtual meetings with external controllers to keep them on track with the primary goal, and to ensure these infiltrators do not become seduced by the party they've joined.

2. Separately, establish an alternative party for young people. While the Greens desperately try to attract new first time voters, they are actually a party established by boomers that reeks of privilege. The Greens are hypocrites, selling utopia to gullible people. Of course when these voters get older and enter the workforce, they soon learn that life is not the way the Greens see it and they soon change their support to a more mainstream party. This new party established by and run by young people would cut off the oxygen supply for the Greens.

However, this approach would be expensive to set up, and young voters are unreliable. Think about this then and how to ensure they wouldn't later merge with the Greens. 

3. Harness the conservative conservationist vote. Some within Greens stay within the party even though they're not communists. That's because they do not see a viable environmental alternative. These people realise that capitalism allows for growth, that simply taxing and throttling enterprise won't work in protecting the environment. These voters want markets to work within a framework that protects, not exploits nature. They're somewhat more pragmatic and realise mining, industry and agriculture is necessary to maintain standards of living. 

This approach is workable and could be successful. It'd work better if this new party could win an electorate seat. Boomers would be its core support, along with later generations, it would be able to fund itself and stay focused on its goal of crushing the Greens and replacing them with a better brand. In time, once the Greens are out they could reverse merger and take over the whole environmental ground politically, within a market economic framework.

My approach is part destruction, part construction. Social media marketing needs to be effective, and it has to be said that environment parties have not been good in this area, including the Greens. To be successful the game has got to be played harder and smarter.

What are your ideas?

Snob's Guide to New Zealand Making Comeback

 My book on navigating around New Zealand society is undergoing a resurgence. When first released it was always top 100 on Amazon's Australian and Oceanian Politics category in both the physical and Kindle format. As a Kindle read it also rated highly within travel guides, a subject it does also address. But then it fell away, still selling but not enough to push it back into the limelight.

Recently readers have started borrowing the book from the Kindle Lending Library, which is new for me as in the past people bought the book. I know how much of the book gets read this way as I'm paid by the page through the Kindle Lending Library. My last two books get read completely when borrowed which I'm told is quite rare. Books are generally not read properly, readers skip pages, more than 20% of each book can be skipped through in fact. These readers later claim to have finished the book, when they haven't done that at all. So it's nice to know that my efforts are appreciated or at least hold the reader.

Why the comeback for Snob's Guide to New Zealand? I think the answer is twofold, people in the US are unhappy with the way things are headed there and maybe looking to escape. The other is controversy surrounding NZ's election and the possibility of electoral interference there as well. Readers are interested to know how the NZ system works, and exactly how its electoral system is flawed.

You can read my book by following this link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07J9XRCWK

It's an easy read, written in an accessible way, but it's not endless gush either, if you want to know exactly how NZ operates, this is your first port of call. You get the lowdown, need to know stuff.

Joe Biden 46th President

 A couple of points come to mind with the apparent election of Joe Biden as President of the US. The first is, remember 2016 and the electoral outcome in favour of Donald Trump, it was all about how Russian interference helped him get over the line. Now in 2020, the same group of people are saying election interference is simply not possible. Huh?

Then COVID-19, what's the bet with Joe Biden in office early next year, within a few weeks the US announces the pandemic is over. Daily reporting of cases will end, everything back to normal with travel worldwide starting again. Yeah, I think the chances of this happening are very good, what you think?

I predict a major war will be started by the US within 6 months of Biden being sworn in. I expect all those cheering his election will be fully behind this war and if old enough, volunteer to fight in it. That last sentence, yeah I know that won't happen, those cheering will hide in their universities and send the poor and uneducated to do the fighting. 

And what of Kamala Harris? She's a lot like NZ's Judith Collins, well educated lawyer, worked at the highest levels, a safe pair of hands and tough on crime.

Failure of the Polls

The outcome of the US Election hangs in the balance, Joe Biden has the inside track and may win, while Donald Trump still clings on and he could come through to win. However, in all of this confusion one thing does stand out and that is the failure of the American polling companies to make any prediction. The conclusion must be that the pollsters are now trying to influence outcomes rather than reflect or report which way the wind is blowing. Henceforth, we should never trust these poll results, they're clearly worthless.

UK Minister Destroys BLM

About time this was said by someone in authority. Shut down Black Lives Matter...

The Press Betrayed America

The media is failing the voting public. They've become a danger to democracy, not defenders of it..

The States to Watch

Sean Spicer looks at the battleground States for the upcoming US Elections

Trump or Biden?

The final debate between the US President, Donald Trump and his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden has just concluded. There was no clear winner as both appeared to be talking to those narrower demographics they needed to win over on November 3.

Trump trails Biden in opinion polls across the USA. However, this was also the case back in 2016. Then it was clear to any casual observer that Trump was going to win and I blogged about it at the time. That's because outside of California and New York, Trump was widely popular. There was a mood for change. 

The popular vote doesn't count in presidential elections, rather, candidates must secure the Electoral College and to do that they must receive no fewer than 270 Electoral College votes. Biden could end up in the same position as Hillary Clinton in 2016, safe in California and the north-eastern states, but washed out in the middle of the country. Based on current polling, Biden has a clear advantage, but if Trump pulls in enough toss-up states, he could certainly be reelected.

So, what's my prediction? If I was a gambler I'd pick Biden. However, I'm going with Trump to repeat 2016. I know, this is something of a surprise as I was heavily invested in Hillary Clinton back in 2016, but I correctly called it for Trump back then anyway.

This time I can see the last four years haven't been a disaster and crucially, no wars. Trump is now increasingly popular with African American and Latino men and their numbers could just tip the balance in some toss-up states.

Biden is getting old and sounds disjointed at times. I read somewhere that if he wins he'll become the President who has done least to win. He hasn't been out there doing enough, instead relying on people like Barack Obama and his running mate Kamala Harris. The latter is eminently qualified, but I don't see her resonating with voters. Why? She's from California and worse still, she's from San Francisco. Americans love to hate California and San Franciscans. 

Americans will be aware that Harris could become President given Biden's age. The only President from California was Richard Nixon. I am sure many older voters will remember this and avoid Harris. It's a small point I know, but the challenger has to win, all Trump has to do is repeat his Electoral College success, he's not interested in winning the popular vote.

My record when it comes to making predictions is pretty good although not stellar. I long predicted Brexit, that the referendum would be in favour of leaving the EU. I also predicted Scotland remaining within the UK but didn't see their leaving as a big problem in any case. I predicted Jacinda Ardern's victory in New Zealand in 2017 and Boris Johnson's victory in the UK after remain camp stalling tactics in the Palace at Westminster. However, I have also got things wrong, the most recent being Ardern's reelection and increased majority in 2020 after a prolonged period of economic mismanagement by her.

So, we'll see. My head says Biden based on the polls. But I'm calling it Trump in 2020 based on what happened in 2016 and Biden not working hard enough in the campaign.

Update: looking at the electoral map from 2016, several states narrowly won by Clinton in 2016 may go Trump in 2020. The much talked about critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania may not come into play at all. If Trump loses all three but picks up Nevada and Colorado, he still holds on to the Presidency (assuming other states remain as they were in 2016).

NZ General Election 2020: Was It Rigged?

Update as @ 27/07/2025: we now know that the below blog post was 100% correct. 2020 was the year of stolen elections. In the US, the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard has recently revealed the scale of the treasonous coup launched by the Obama White House, to undermine 2016 President elect, Donald Trump. I believe, the NZ election held just before the US Presidential Election in 2020 was a practice run for the real thing, the rigging of the 2020 US presidential election. Further, that all of the drama during 2020 was an exercise to effect the removal of Donald Trump. We only now know this was the case because Donald Trump was NOT assassinated in 2024, and he was duly re-elected.

I am giving this update prominence as there has been a recent daily lift in visitors to my blog and this post is top of the list. People are starting to connect the dots. I feel vindicated. At the time I wrote the below post, I only had suspicions, but now we know the truth. And my call for a recount cannot be held as all the ballots have been destroyed. Yeah - rigged.

I am surprised by the number of people saying to me that the New Zealand General Election was rigged. For many, the results appear too cute to be real. Almost right across the board, with only one or two exceptions, a majority in each electorate party voted Labour. This includes even safe and solidly 'blue' seats held by National. I'll give you some examples; Judith Collins is the Leader of the Opposition and holds the safe Auckland seat of Papakura for National. She won on the night with a comfortable majority of nearly 6,000. However, the party vote was lost to Labour by 400.  

Selwyn is also interesting. It is a largely rural seat in the South Island, full of rich farmers. It is a safe National seat formerly held by Amy Adams who was standing down. The new candidate for National was Nicola Grigg and she held the seat with a majority of nearly 5,000. For a first time candidate, that's pretty good. However, the party vote was lost to Labour by a whopping 2,385 on the night. That's almost unthinkable in a seat considered very Blue. 

Rangitikei is its equivalent in the North Island. National to the core, the National party candidate won comfortably but the party vote was lost to Labour by 4,583. Do you see the pattern? Even if truly conservative in nature the pattern is almost always the same, National lost to Labour when the party votes are counted. Even Botany in Auckland, being contested for National and won by the high profile former CEO of Air Zealand, lost the party vote to Labour.

Those saying the result is rigged look at the cuteness of all this and then say that this should not be consistent throughout the country. Voting for a candidate different from the party is somewhat difficult. In the polling station you're given a form and it has on the left hand side of the page the parties contesting the election, and then on the right hand side of the page, next to the party name is the candidate for that very same party. If choosing one party, it is highly likely the voter will also tick the name alongside that same party. This didn't happen in so many cases, consistently people voted for Labour and then searched down the list of candidates to find the National electorate candidate. Is this credible?

Epsom is a counter example. For many elections, voters have given their party vote to National but preferred as their local member of parliament, ACT leader David Seymour and many of his predecessors before him. This was a strategic move, ensuring National had a coalition partner. Voters were being tactical and not throwing away their party vote at all. They remained National, but they gained a coalition partner for their party, who was returned to parliament as an electorate member along with others off the party list if ACT received enough party votes.

What can normally be expected to happen? In the past, when the tide was going out for National, Labour held seats went even redder, while National seats moved to the left but still held up, albeit with a smaller majority. The trend tends to be for rock solid National supporters to never vary their party vote, however examples do exist of them changing their less important candidate vote. 

Do you see where I'm going with this? The 2020 result is remarkable because across the entire country, solid National voters ditched and voted for the enemy, but nevertheless had the good sense to vote for their National party electorate candidate. Is this believable?

Clearly, while not proven election interference, close scrutiny must be given to the results. Perhaps a recount could be held in Selwyn and Rangitikei, with independent scrutineers present. If nothing is done, this could lead to further distrust of the process.

Update: it has been pointed out to me that rigging the outcome of the election would be a relatively simple affair. Here was me thinking it was complicated, that data entry operators would have to be in on it. No, ballots could simply be thrown away, or at the very least not counted at all and then thrown away later when the opportunity presented itself. But wouldn't this make the turnout look wrong?

It would, but there were two referendums being held at the same time as the general election, both on very contentious issues, euthanasia and the recreational use of cannabis. What if this led to a high turnout, say, 90% of registered voters? Say 10% of votes, all National were dumped; if included they would shift the outcome to 34% National, 8% ACT. Labour would drop to 43%. The Greens would then be Kingmakers and hold the balance of power.

The fix wouldn't be to shaft National. It would be to prevent Greens holding the whip hand. 

And what of the technological angle? It has been suggested that the most efficient approach would be to have a program running that manipulated the figures as data is entered. This would happen imperceptibly behind the scenes. Support for this view comes from observing how the election night evolved. Results were thoroughly consistent with little variation. The usual ebb and flow as electorates reported was simply absent. 

What do you think?

Important update: Dan Lacey has found out that the anti-malware program the Electoral Commission was running at the time of the election was Windows Defender Antivirus - for real - this is Keystone Cops stuff. Incredible stupidity: 

https://gab.com/danlacey/posts/105745049923598189

[updated 6:23pm 20/1/2020 version from that originally published]

[updated 9:00am 21/10/2020 version from that originally published]

[updated 8:32pm 17/02/2021]

New Zealand Politics: Getting Over That 5% Threshold

Over recent years I have had representatives of minor New Zealand political parties approach me for advice about how to get over the party vote threshold of 5%. Without winning an electorate, a party without 5% of the party vote cannot enter parliament. At first glance this target doesn't sound insurmountable, to be safe it represents about 150,000 party votes. However, in reality it is a huge hurdle and I'm about to explain why that is.

My advice to these minor parties doesn't get far. I should be better at this, as maybe I could turn it into profit for myself, but I just don't have it in me to string them along. The conversation starts out with these hopefuls asking, what does it take to get that all-important 5%? My answer is brief; got $2 million to kick things off? Then $1 million each year thereafter until the election period starts and your spending is statutorily limited. 

There is silence around the room. Err. I never hear from them again.

Okay, so let's back this truck up and load the rig properly. I'm assuming this minor party has no sitting member of parliament able to use the machinery of the institution to help things along. No sweetheart deal with a major party gifting them a seat. And they're not a splinter group of an already established outfit, the way the Greens were when originally part of the Alliance back in the 1990's. 

We start out by gaining party members. The minimum is 500 financial members who are eligible to vote. That's not nearly enough. If we take a conservative approach and say that this party needs to be present in at least 60 electorates, with a minimum 50 members in each to cover for those dying, getting ill or busy in their life; we need a total membership of 3,000 at least.

These 3,000 members have to be supported by a paid party infrastructure, on deck 24/7 dealing with problems as they crop up. Their numbers don't have to be large but they'll be on the road a lot and they must be experienced and discreet. Thus, they'll be well paid.

What I've just described is very expensive. Obtaining those members presents a problem in itself. It costs money just to get members who in return may not have the money to donate back to cover set up costs. It's a bit like an initial public offering of shares to the public that falls over, the stock brokers taking a bath on the exercise.

But assuming these members are found and they're able to financially support operations through subscriptions and donations alone; how then is this party going to win those 150,000 votes from that small base of supporters? This is where it gets tricky, and almost every minor party has failed thus far.

The party must have access to media, both in the traditional and in new media such as YouTube, Instagram, Twitter and Facebook. Personally I recommend online newspapers and YouTube channels. A mixture of paid advertising and simple free promotion and mentions. Sounds good so far, right? Wrong, as there is another huge hurdle and it is bio-chemical, yeah, for real.

Advance NZ and New Conservatives both failed to understand this bio-chemical component of the political process. They thought that by engaging using social media, and let's face it they've been everywhere leading up to the 2020 General Election, they'd break through. Nope, didn't happen.

Why not? When in the polling booth voters revert to type. Bear in mind both Labour and National have been around a long time. They're cross-generational. The trauma of past events has been planted in voters genes, so when they vote, they're using instinct. Even though people may attend meetings of those minor parties, agree about everything and promise to vote for them, they do not. Why? Their genetic inheritance kicks in and they vote as their parents did and their grandparents and so on.

Breaking this cycle is where the money goes in bulk. This new party has to be about as popular as Keeping Up with the Kardashians to break through using social media, or just about own a major news outlet using traditional channels. 

And then lastly, timing. There has to be an appetite for this new brand. Without it that shelf space will disappear quickly as no-one will be buying. On top of that, the organisation has to be kept running smoothly with everyone on topic, every day. You can't force feed a message the electorate doesn't want and neither can you have the right message but it be disjointed or haphazard in application.

Sometimes I'm asked, of all minor parties, which has been most successful? They imagine I'll talk about the MMP era, but I go back farther and look at Social Credit's 20.7% in 1981 and the New Zealand Party backed by Bob Jones in 1984 which achieved 12.25%. The latter is important because that party effectively split the centre/right vote and ensured an easy victory for Labour. Both are interesting as they were successful through different means. Social Credit simply plugged away for decades, while the NZ Party was formed and became active quite swiftly.

So, anyone out there ready to talk? I know how things run, been around a long time.

New Zealand General Election 2020: What Just Happened?

In simple terms, the centre-right of the political spectrum in New Zealand have been slaughtered. That's the polite way of describing the outcome of the 2020 General Election. Labour can govern alone, they gained 49.1% of the party vote and 64 seats in the house.

Before I drill down into some specifics, the way I see Labour achieving their stunning victory was through two significant shifts among voters. The first was the flight of NZ First back to Labour. I'd describe 60% of NZ First as old Labour; retired unionists and blue collar workers. They returned to the fold and NZ First are no longer represented in parliament. Then more significantly, middle class and upper middle class voters ditched the National party and voted Labour for the first time. They voted against their class interests and I believe they'll suffer because of it, but more of how and why below.

Let's examine two formerly safe National seats for a snapshot of what I'm talking about; Ilam in the city of Christchurch and the rural Canterbury seat of Rangitata in the South Island.

Ilam is about as "blue" as it gets. About 20% of houses in Ilam are owned by a family trust and 30% of people there earn more than $100,000 a year. Half the population of Ilam are professionals or managers. They drive cars bought new, not old import secondhand ones. A decent house will cost more than a million dollars. Right, that said, they've now elected a Labour member of parliament, who will enjoy a 2,200 vote majority. The previous incumbent, Gerry Brownlee had held the seat for National its entire existence and last election he had a majority of over 8,000 votes. That's nearly an 11,000 vote turnaround in just three years. If you'd told me this and I didn't know otherwise, I'd say you're dreaming. More like a nightmare actually, that's how bad that result is. And Labour won the all-important party vote in Ilam for the first time, by a stunning 4,800 over National. 

Then to the rich farmlands of Rangitata. Rich, yes, they're not struggling farmers from this rich region in Canterbury. The farmers of Rangitata have got millions in equity in their farms and some are known to buy a brand new tractor every year. The electorate traditionally doesn't know what the Labour party is, well it does now as it has a Labour MP with a 3,400 vote majority. Three years ago National had the majority with 6,300 votes. That's another stunning reversal. Now, it could be said that as this electorate incorporates Timaru and Temuka that it does include working class. And I'd agree but its close neighbours, Waitaki and Selwyn which are far more conservative also lost the party vote to Labour.

To those voters who changed sides, do you realise what you've just done? You've effectively given Labour the right to tax you out of existence. Labour will not protect you. Your business, your house, your income, your property portfolio will no longer be off-limits.

Why did these middle class and upper-middle class voters switch and vote Labour? It has to be the Jacinda Ardern factor. As Labour leader she better reflects the NZ electorate. NZ society has changed and traditional Christian values are no longer paramount. These former National voters have been duped in effect, by niceness and messages of inclusivity. Of course, they'll flip back to the right when their bank accounts are impacted, but by then it may too late.

The Greens polled about where they usually do. In the past they've been as high as 11% with leaders' Russel Norman and Metiria Turei, so their 7.6% of the party vote is middle of the road. They did win the seat of Auckland Central and no doubt the Greens will rejoice, but Auckland Central is a bit flaky and so the result, while surprising, was not beyond the realms of possibility.

ACT are a little more to the right than National and they picked up 8% of the party vote, likely largely from National voters trying to shore up the right. That's good for them and at least we'll have a strong alternative centre/right voice in parliament. This was the best ever result for ACT and they have the opportunity now to push on and increase this further. They'll need discipline and hard work.

Where to from here? National need to do a complete rethink. They need to get back to their rural and affluent suburban base and ask important questions. Why? And don't lurch to the right or go toward evangelical Christians because that'd be a disaster, clearly societal changes mean people are quite happy with the looser morals of Labour (and the Greens for that matter). No knee-jerk reactions, the way forward has to be thought through. But something that is immediately needed, and that is a clean-out of the dead wood, top to bottom. Party organisational hierarchies have been around forever, the National party needs a new broom to sweep the place clean.

General Election Today

New Zealand is about to find out if it will still exist as a sovereign nation in three years time. Today, it goes to the polls in a General Election that will decide its fate. The choice whether to exist or not is not on the ballot paper, but the choice is still there in reality. I never thought I'd see the day.

Baker Tilly Staples Rodway Election Poll

Baker Tilly Staples Rodway (chartered accountants) election poll, key findings:

Top concerns:

Infrastructure top priority (45% of those polled had this 1st or 2nd)

Technology/Innovation

Healthcare/Medical research

Skills/Apprenticeships

What used to be important in these polls? Housing, now no longer dominant. 

Nearly 40% think things getting worse

Only 8.5% think election will have positive impact

56% of businesses have seen revenues decline

This is catastrophic.

What about Tax?

53% in favour of tax cuts

44% in favour of Labour's adjusting top tax rate

72% oppose Greens wealth tax

75% don't want extra sick days and holidays

Message: don't tax assets, income - may be prepared to pay a bit more.

Take this on board you politicians.

Lakers Win Number 17 in 2020

In the year of Kobe Bryant's tragic death, the Los Angeles Lakers of the NBA have won their 17th championship. This places them first in terms of all-time championship wins. First because they've made more finals appearances than the Boston Celtics who held top spot with 17 but have been to the finals fewer times. 

If you're a basketball fan it is a fitting tribute to Bryant. But as a Houston Rockets fan, I didn't want to see the Lakers take the all-time greatest spot. Naturally, I want the Rockets to be there.

The star for the Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler looks to be a great talent. So long as he stays free from injury, we're going to be hearing a lot more of this man.

National Party Up Against It

Found this interesting blog post from experienced journalist, Karl Du Fresne about the bias New Zealand's National Party faces from the media:

http://karldufresne.blogspot.com/2020/10/its-not-just-labour-party-that-collins.html

New Zealand General Election 2020

It's decision time. I've made no secret of it; I think the Labour government are on the way out. Three years ago I called it in their favour. Jacinda Ardern and her Labour party were the only party to receive a swing to it, and it was a massive swing at that.

But things haven't gone well. By any measure Labour have failed. Everything is worse, child poverty, homelessness, house construction, and now they've completely destroyed the NZ economy.

The polls say otherwise, they have Labour about to serve a second three year term. I don't believe it, I think the polls are rigged. The media are bought and paid for. People out there have been kicked in the teeth. Surely they wouldn't go back for more.

I'm predicting a sane and sensible electorate will vote National or ACT. The two will form the next government. If this doesn't happen, it may be all over, NZ may cease to exist. Things are that serious.

The Press Leaders Debate 2020

The Press is Christchurch's daily newspaper. Leading up to general elections they host a town hall type debate between the leaders of the two main political parties. Last night, the showdown was between Jacinda Ardern of Labour and Judith Collins from National.

The debate was streamed online, it was not a television broadcast event. The quality of the feed was very poor and so I could not actually score the debate as I'd not heard all of it. But what I could discern was that the town hall had been stacked with Labour supporters. Following the debate, experts all agreed Jacinda Ardern won it. Sounds good right?

Hang on, competitor NZ Herald ran a straw poll and 23,000 respondents had it 52% Collins, 43% Ardern, 5% a draw. Then a day later the number of respondents had doubled but still Judith Collins led with 49% to 45%, 6% calling it a draw. 

Do you see what I'm getting at? There is a serious disconnect between what the media want to happen, what the so-called experts want to happen, and what the people are actually thinking.

I'm going to make the call now. I'm calling this a groundswell of support for Judith Collins and National. Back in 2017 I called it for Ardern and Labour. Three years on the electorate has flipped back after a disastrous term in office by Labour. They can't get anything done. I believe the 'experts' are in for a shock come the election result on the evening of Oct.,17th.

Donald Trump and the Coronavirus

Donald Trump has caught the nasty virus, COVID-19. What happens if he becomes incapacitated and unable to perform the duties of President? Here's an interesting Bloomberg article on that very subject:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-02/what-happens-if-trump-is-unable-to-govern?

Lakers Cruising to Another NBA Championship?

The 2020 NBA finals look as if they may be a procession for LeBron James and his LA Lakers team. They've just crushed the Miami Heat in the first game of the series. The Heat were the Eastern Conference 5th seed and are suffering injuries amongst key players. So, this series may become a snore fest.

If the Lakers take the title they'll leapfrog the Boston Celtics and take first spot on the list of NBA title winners. That's because they've appeared in more finals than Boston. The way it works, the Lakers tend to win about 50% of their finals appearances, while the Celtics tend to win theirs. A lot of Lakers haters do not want to see that top spot held by the team from Los Angeles.