General Election 2020: Bruce Crocombe

I received the following in my inbox today. It is a complaint laid before the Ombudsman about the General Election 2020.

Post: The Ombudsman, PO Box 10152, Wellington 6143

Summary of Actions required to satisfy my complaint regarding the 2020 Elections:

Stop the election 2020 Ballots, and all associated documents, being destroyed in April 2021.

The “Certificate of Results” forms should be made available to the Voting Place Managers, Justice of the Peace and Returning Officers to validate their signatures. The “Certificate of Results” should posted on the Electoral commission website for public scrutiny (alongside the other two already available, computer generated documents).

Reasons for my concern:

I was a Convener for the 2020 elections. The polling station I voted in was set up in a way to promote Maori views and promote the Labour party narrative that “this is a COVID election”. I laid a complaint to the returning officer who forwarded it to the electoral commission. That complaint was not even answered. Due to this lack of action I furthered my investigations. I became aware that the election process has many failures which led to these elections being illegal. In my discussions with others I was concerned that their observations also questioned the integrity of the election.

Who is affected by my observations and concerns?

This affects me personally as I now consider that this election win was gained by fraudulent activity. My faith in democracy is crushed! This affects the integrity of the people working in the voting places, Justice of the peace and scrutineers. It also affects all voters who may have had their vote ignored, swapped or never had it counted. It affects all New Zealand who did not vote for this Government.

My Complaint: There is no way to check that the vote count in the electorate polling place on 17th of October 2020 is reflected in the final results published on 5th November 2020.

My observations have covered the entire voting arena however am focusing my complaint on what I consider to be the most critical flaw. There is no way to check that the vote count in the electorate polling place on 17th October 2020 is reflected in the final results published on 5th November 2020. The integrity of the process, from voting to publishing results, does not allow a manual audit trail. It appears to be designed to impede any audit, stop observational assessments to be made on voting trends and allow easy access (at many stages) for fraudulent activity.

Actions I wish to be taken in the interests of this being an open, auditable, government Election:

1st

Stop the Ballots, and all associated documents, being destroyed. [As per section 189 of the Electoral Act 1993 - “Despite subsection (2), a packet or parcel may not be destroyed so long as the packet or parcel is, or may reasonably be expected to be, required for the purposes of an investigation into, or a prosecution of, an offence against this Act”].

An “Execution of stay” should be imposed on the ballots, and all associated documents, as they are legally allowed to be destroyed six months after the election. Ie. 3rd of April 2021 if they (sneakily) take it from the original election date. 17th April 2021 if from the actual date of the election.

These forms should be made available to the Voting Place Managers, Justice of the Peace and Returning Officers to validate their signatures, then posted (alongside the other two already available documents) on the Electoral commission website for public scrutiny.

I wish the public to view and copy for analysis all of the preliminary vote counts done by the Polling Place Managers and recorded by hand on the “certificate of results” forms.

2nd

I wish to firmly establish that this is not a request for a recount! It does not follow any existing pre described procedure. The objective is not to correlate the ballot count to the “Certificate of results” The object is to manually compare the many “Certificate of results” counts generated by the polling places to the “spread sheet” compiled electronically and printed of from the “Election Management System” (CATALYST). Then to compare the totals calculated from the “Certificate of results” to the “Official results certificate” for each electorate.

The information on each electorate’s forms should match that recorded on the computer generated spreadsheet. If not, a forensic audit of the actual ballots should be undertaken by an agency independent from any Government pressure as this would be a case of Government sponsored election fraud!

3rd

This is an investigation into a part of the electoral process. It should be done independently from any electoral commission interference, under the scrutiny of well briefed Conservative and Labour Party scrutineers. An independent party must manage the procedure (outlined in the 2nd part) to be followed. Do not allow the Electoral Commission to redirect or change the focus the process.

There is absolutely no reason that this additional document cannot made public.

The information (“Certificate of Results” form) represents ‘open Government’, is part of the election process and does not in any way compromise the publics privacy. The scrutineer’s handbook states that the results of the early count can be disclosed after 7 pm on Election Day (if you can get a copy of it). This information is not deemed sensitive after this time. The very same information, all be it printed from a computer data base, is available on the Government web site.

Evaluation Brief:

1) Compartmentalisation of vote counting – That is, the votes are handled in parcels, which will not allow tabulation of these parcels with other parcels during the preliminary count, Official count or recounts. Votes are counted, recorded then all information secured for that count. I understand the electoral process and am clear that counting the votes is deliberately compartmentalised in this way to control the availability of information. This was further compounded when additional voting places were set up. This stops people working in the process from observing more than one count and forming an opinion on voting trends. It means that any observations made in one voting place cannot be shared to get an overall electorate assessment. There is no way to get an evidence based assessment of results in one voting place (two counts and specials), or a total for the electorate. All people are forced to accept the computer controlled data without audit.

2) Confusing and illogical ‘access to information’ requirements – Photography is allowed to copy voter sensitive data, yet no photography is allowed of the “Certificate of Results”? The only way to get these results would be to copy them by hand from the “Certificate of Results” form. No mention is made that this can be done however it is previously stated that you cannot touch forms. They need to be presented to you. They are locked away ensuring the tabulation of results is only done by computer. A manual audit trail is made impossible. The Electoral Act 1993 provides for results to be challenged through recounts and petitions on certain grounds. It does not allow for manual tabulation of electorate count totals! It does not provide for auditing a sample of votes. There is also no mandate for forensic audits of samples of ballots (if the name and address is correct they are accepted). When the Electoral Commission is questioned they include confusing references to the naming of forms and redirect your attention to the computer generated data. When comparing the Electoral Act with the procedures outlined in the Electoral Commission web site gives actions happening differently and out of chronological sequence.

3) The “Election Management System” i.e. the vote tabulation software, is supplied by CATALYST. NET LIMITED, NZ Company Number 952897. Its program is “open source” meaning that the programming can be changed by the owner. Catalyst is also on the internet for the duration of the election hence open to hacking or nefarious access. There is nothing secure with this system and the assurances of security, given by the electoral commission, are not backed up with any tangible evidence of security or audit trail.

4) Performing an Audit. Vote counting is compartmentalized so no voter trends can be observed. The only opportunity to audit the integrity of the election results being keyed into the “Electoral Management System” and the numbers being presented to the public as “Election Results” is blocked. Access to the “Certificate of Results” form is restricted as no photographic copy can be made. There is no allowance for a manual tabulation of numbers independent from a computer. Official counts and recounts are also compartmentalized and strictly controlled to stop the totaling of all votes so no integrity audit can be done.

5) The Electoral Act 1993 is written without any references to manual or computer handling of data. There are also no references to a means to audit tabulated election data. This is a very concerning failure of process. An evaluation of the Act is included with this complaint.

6) The Electoral Commission Web site. An evaluation of the Electoral Commission Web site is included with this complaint.

7) The Scrutineers hand book. An evaluation of The Scrutineers hand book is included with this complaint.

Definitions (from the Electoral Act 1993) of the three forms completed during the course of elections.

1) “Certificate of results” is the form filled manually to record the count done on Election Day for either advance votes, counted after 9 am, or for votes cast on polling day, counted after 7pm.

These votes are (generally) counted in the polling place, and each certificate signed off by the Polling Place Manager and a Justice of the peace.

The “certificate of results” forms are lodged with the Clerk of the House in accordance with section 189 of the Electoral Act 1993 and are not available.

2) “Official results certificate” is the certificate “EMS82-FINAL Official Results Notification Form 2020 General Election and Referendums” that is printed from the “Election Management System” Catalyst, on completion of the final count on November 5th 2020. Each certificate shows the result totals for each electorate.

The “Official Results Certificates” can all be found on the Electoral Commission Web Site How are general election votes counted? | Elections 2020 certificates of results (ZIP, 26MB)

3) Two spread sheets breaking down the Candidate and Party vote count can also be generated from the “Election Management System” Votes Recorded at each Voting Place (electionresults.govt.nz)

Publishing all three forms is perfectly feasible as none of these forms in any way compromises the voter information or the vote cast. They report only vote placement statistics.

Evaluation – full

Assessment of relative correspondence:

1) Compartmentalisation of vote counting –

2) Confusing and illogical ‘access to information’ requirements –

3) The “Election Management System”

4) Performing an Audit.

5) Comparison between the Electoral Act 1993 and Electoral Commission Interpretation

6) The Electoral Commission Web site.

7) The Scrutineers hand book.

Copies of relevant forms are available (via links in the document) on the internet.

Copies of relevant correspondence available:

E mail trail to returning officer, forwarded to Electoral commission.

E mails to/from electoral commission.

Foot note - Other incidental observations:

Ballot boxes, though sealed on the top, can be accessed through the base.

One security company is hired for the whole country. Total control of security allowing for strategic placement of personnel (for both security and nefarious purposes).

Some voting centers took ballot boxes home ‘for security reasons’.

Colmar Brunton polling results were not reflected in Nation Party and other privately undertaken polls.

Massive media bias throughout the build up to the election by Government “financially bailed out” compliant (all major) media outlets.

Many electorates had election results which were contrary to the observational assessments. Not “a bad looser syndrome”, more like a betrayal of observational trend analysis. I.e. South Island going red, Auckland Central going Green, Upper Harbour going Labour….. All difficult to explain “wild card” results.

New Zealand Election 2020

Still have faith in the security of the New Zealand General Election 2020? How would you feel knowing the Electoral Commission was connected to the internet during the election and the only malware protection they were using was Windows Defender Antivirus - the free software that comes with every Windows software sold. Unbelievable. Someone needs to be sacked.

https://gab.com/danlacey/posts/105745049923598189

NZ General Election 2020: Was It Rigged?

Update as @ 27/07/2025: we now know that the below blog post was 100% correct. 2020 was the year of stolen elections. In the US, the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard has recently revealed the scale of the treasonous coup launched by the Obama White House, to undermine 2016 President elect, Donald Trump. I believe, the NZ election held just before the US Presidential Election in 2020 was a practice run for the real thing, the rigging of the 2020 US presidential election. Further, that all of the drama during 2020 was an exercise to effect the removal of Donald Trump. We only now know this was the case because Donald Trump was NOT assassinated in 2024, and he was duly re-elected.

I am giving this update prominence as there has been a recent daily lift in visitors to my blog and this post is top of the list. People are starting to connect the dots. I feel vindicated. At the time I wrote the below post, I only had suspicions, but now we know the truth. And my call for a recount cannot be held as all the ballots have been destroyed. Yeah - rigged.

I am surprised by the number of people saying to me that the New Zealand General Election was rigged. For many, the results appear too cute to be real. Almost right across the board, with only one or two exceptions, a majority in each electorate party voted Labour. This includes even safe and solidly 'blue' seats held by National. I'll give you some examples; Judith Collins is the Leader of the Opposition and holds the safe Auckland seat of Papakura for National. She won on the night with a comfortable majority of nearly 6,000. However, the party vote was lost to Labour by 400.  

Selwyn is also interesting. It is a largely rural seat in the South Island, full of rich farmers. It is a safe National seat formerly held by Amy Adams who was standing down. The new candidate for National was Nicola Grigg and she held the seat with a majority of nearly 5,000. For a first time candidate, that's pretty good. However, the party vote was lost to Labour by a whopping 2,385 on the night. That's almost unthinkable in a seat considered very Blue. 

Rangitikei is its equivalent in the North Island. National to the core, the National party candidate won comfortably but the party vote was lost to Labour by 4,583. Do you see the pattern? Even if truly conservative in nature the pattern is almost always the same, National lost to Labour when the party votes are counted. Even Botany in Auckland, being contested for National and won by the high profile former CEO of Air Zealand, lost the party vote to Labour.

Those saying the result is rigged look at the cuteness of all this and then say that this should not be consistent throughout the country. Voting for a candidate different from the party is somewhat difficult. In the polling station you're given a form and it has on the left hand side of the page the parties contesting the election, and then on the right hand side of the page, next to the party name is the candidate for that very same party. If choosing one party, it is highly likely the voter will also tick the name alongside that same party. This didn't happen in so many cases, consistently people voted for Labour and then searched down the list of candidates to find the National electorate candidate. Is this credible?

Epsom is a counter example. For many elections, voters have given their party vote to National but preferred as their local member of parliament, ACT leader David Seymour and many of his predecessors before him. This was a strategic move, ensuring National had a coalition partner. Voters were being tactical and not throwing away their party vote at all. They remained National, but they gained a coalition partner for their party, who was returned to parliament as an electorate member along with others off the party list if ACT received enough party votes.

What can normally be expected to happen? In the past, when the tide was going out for National, Labour held seats went even redder, while National seats moved to the left but still held up, albeit with a smaller majority. The trend tends to be for rock solid National supporters to never vary their party vote, however examples do exist of them changing their less important candidate vote. 

Do you see where I'm going with this? The 2020 result is remarkable because across the entire country, solid National voters ditched and voted for the enemy, but nevertheless had the good sense to vote for their National party electorate candidate. Is this believable?

Clearly, while not proven election interference, close scrutiny must be given to the results. Perhaps a recount could be held in Selwyn and Rangitikei, with independent scrutineers present. If nothing is done, this could lead to further distrust of the process.

Update: it has been pointed out to me that rigging the outcome of the election would be a relatively simple affair. Here was me thinking it was complicated, that data entry operators would have to be in on it. No, ballots could simply be thrown away, or at the very least not counted at all and then thrown away later when the opportunity presented itself. But wouldn't this make the turnout look wrong?

It would, but there were two referendums being held at the same time as the general election, both on very contentious issues, euthanasia and the recreational use of cannabis. What if this led to a high turnout, say, 90% of registered voters? Say 10% of votes, all National were dumped; if included they would shift the outcome to 34% National, 8% ACT. Labour would drop to 43%. The Greens would then be Kingmakers and hold the balance of power.

The fix wouldn't be to shaft National. It would be to prevent Greens holding the whip hand. 

And what of the technological angle? It has been suggested that the most efficient approach would be to have a program running that manipulated the figures as data is entered. This would happen imperceptibly behind the scenes. Support for this view comes from observing how the election night evolved. Results were thoroughly consistent with little variation. The usual ebb and flow as electorates reported was simply absent. 

What do you think?

Important update: Dan Lacey has found out that the anti-malware program the Electoral Commission was running at the time of the election was Windows Defender Antivirus - for real - this is Keystone Cops stuff. Incredible stupidity: 

https://gab.com/danlacey/posts/105745049923598189

[updated 6:23pm 20/1/2020 version from that originally published]

[updated 9:00am 21/10/2020 version from that originally published]

[updated 8:32pm 17/02/2021]

New Zealand General Election 2020: What Just Happened?

In simple terms, the centre-right of the political spectrum in New Zealand have been slaughtered. That's the polite way of describing the outcome of the 2020 General Election. Labour can govern alone, they gained 49.1% of the party vote and 64 seats in the house.

Before I drill down into some specifics, the way I see Labour achieving their stunning victory was through two significant shifts among voters. The first was the flight of NZ First back to Labour. I'd describe 60% of NZ First as old Labour; retired unionists and blue collar workers. They returned to the fold and NZ First are no longer represented in parliament. Then more significantly, middle class and upper middle class voters ditched the National party and voted Labour for the first time. They voted against their class interests and I believe they'll suffer because of it, but more of how and why below.

Let's examine two formerly safe National seats for a snapshot of what I'm talking about; Ilam in the city of Christchurch and the rural Canterbury seat of Rangitata in the South Island.

Ilam is about as "blue" as it gets. About 20% of houses in Ilam are owned by a family trust and 30% of people there earn more than $100,000 a year. Half the population of Ilam are professionals or managers. They drive cars bought new, not old import secondhand ones. A decent house will cost more than a million dollars. Right, that said, they've now elected a Labour member of parliament, who will enjoy a 2,200 vote majority. The previous incumbent, Gerry Brownlee had held the seat for National its entire existence and last election he had a majority of over 8,000 votes. That's nearly an 11,000 vote turnaround in just three years. If you'd told me this and I didn't know otherwise, I'd say you're dreaming. More like a nightmare actually, that's how bad that result is. And Labour won the all-important party vote in Ilam for the first time, by a stunning 4,800 over National. 

Then to the rich farmlands of Rangitata. Rich, yes, they're not struggling farmers from this rich region in Canterbury. The farmers of Rangitata have got millions in equity in their farms and some are known to buy a brand new tractor every year. The electorate traditionally doesn't know what the Labour party is, well it does now as it has a Labour MP with a 3,400 vote majority. Three years ago National had the majority with 6,300 votes. That's another stunning reversal. Now, it could be said that as this electorate incorporates Timaru and Temuka that it does include working class. And I'd agree but its close neighbours, Waitaki and Selwyn which are far more conservative also lost the party vote to Labour.

To those voters who changed sides, do you realise what you've just done? You've effectively given Labour the right to tax you out of existence. Labour will not protect you. Your business, your house, your income, your property portfolio will no longer be off-limits.

Why did these middle class and upper-middle class voters switch and vote Labour? It has to be the Jacinda Ardern factor. As Labour leader she better reflects the NZ electorate. NZ society has changed and traditional Christian values are no longer paramount. These former National voters have been duped in effect, by niceness and messages of inclusivity. Of course, they'll flip back to the right when their bank accounts are impacted, but by then it may too late.

The Greens polled about where they usually do. In the past they've been as high as 11% with leaders' Russel Norman and Metiria Turei, so their 7.6% of the party vote is middle of the road. They did win the seat of Auckland Central and no doubt the Greens will rejoice, but Auckland Central is a bit flaky and so the result, while surprising, was not beyond the realms of possibility.

ACT are a little more to the right than National and they picked up 8% of the party vote, likely largely from National voters trying to shore up the right. That's good for them and at least we'll have a strong alternative centre/right voice in parliament. This was the best ever result for ACT and they have the opportunity now to push on and increase this further. They'll need discipline and hard work.

Where to from here? National need to do a complete rethink. They need to get back to their rural and affluent suburban base and ask important questions. Why? And don't lurch to the right or go toward evangelical Christians because that'd be a disaster, clearly societal changes mean people are quite happy with the looser morals of Labour (and the Greens for that matter). No knee-jerk reactions, the way forward has to be thought through. But something that is immediately needed, and that is a clean-out of the dead wood, top to bottom. Party organisational hierarchies have been around forever, the National party needs a new broom to sweep the place clean.

General Election Today

New Zealand is about to find out if it will still exist as a sovereign nation in three years time. Today, it goes to the polls in a General Election that will decide its fate. The choice whether to exist or not is not on the ballot paper, but the choice is still there in reality. I never thought I'd see the day.

Baker Tilly Staples Rodway Election Poll

Baker Tilly Staples Rodway (chartered accountants) election poll, key findings:

Top concerns:

Infrastructure top priority (45% of those polled had this 1st or 2nd)

Technology/Innovation

Healthcare/Medical research

Skills/Apprenticeships

What used to be important in these polls? Housing, now no longer dominant. 

Nearly 40% think things getting worse

Only 8.5% think election will have positive impact

56% of businesses have seen revenues decline

This is catastrophic.

What about Tax?

53% in favour of tax cuts

44% in favour of Labour's adjusting top tax rate

72% oppose Greens wealth tax

75% don't want extra sick days and holidays

Message: don't tax assets, income - may be prepared to pay a bit more.

Take this on board you politicians.

New Zealand General Election 2020

It's decision time. I've made no secret of it; I think the Labour government are on the way out. Three years ago I called it in their favour. Jacinda Ardern and her Labour party were the only party to receive a swing to it, and it was a massive swing at that.

But things haven't gone well. By any measure Labour have failed. Everything is worse, child poverty, homelessness, house construction, and now they've completely destroyed the NZ economy.

The polls say otherwise, they have Labour about to serve a second three year term. I don't believe it, I think the polls are rigged. The media are bought and paid for. People out there have been kicked in the teeth. Surely they wouldn't go back for more.

I'm predicting a sane and sensible electorate will vote National or ACT. The two will form the next government. If this doesn't happen, it may be all over, NZ may cease to exist. Things are that serious.

The Press Leaders Debate 2020

The Press is Christchurch's daily newspaper. Leading up to general elections they host a town hall type debate between the leaders of the two main political parties. Last night, the showdown was between Jacinda Ardern of Labour and Judith Collins from National.

The debate was streamed online, it was not a television broadcast event. The quality of the feed was very poor and so I could not actually score the debate as I'd not heard all of it. But what I could discern was that the town hall had been stacked with Labour supporters. Following the debate, experts all agreed Jacinda Ardern won it. Sounds good right?

Hang on, competitor NZ Herald ran a straw poll and 23,000 respondents had it 52% Collins, 43% Ardern, 5% a draw. Then a day later the number of respondents had doubled but still Judith Collins led with 49% to 45%, 6% calling it a draw. 

Do you see what I'm getting at? There is a serious disconnect between what the media want to happen, what the so-called experts want to happen, and what the people are actually thinking.

I'm going to make the call now. I'm calling this a groundswell of support for Judith Collins and National. Back in 2017 I called it for Ardern and Labour. Three years on the electorate has flipped back after a disastrous term in office by Labour. They can't get anything done. I believe the 'experts' are in for a shock come the election result on the evening of Oct.,17th.

Latest Political Poll New Zealand

I don't trust the latest public opinion polls as published by TV3's Newshub. That's not because they have National too low on 29%, but because their results show Advance NZ not registering at all. That I don't believe, right now Advance NZ are everywhere and they're packing halls. It is simply not credible to think they're not registering. And I'm going to stick my neck out and say I don't believe National are so low either. If true, it would be a first as voters always return to National when times are tough and that's right now, with New Zealand's biggest economic crisis in its entire history.

What's going on? The media are rigging things, that's what. 

Judith Collins Wins Debate

The odds were against her; TVNZ had stacked the deck by having current public opinion polling released an hour before the leaders debate itself, but Judith Collins pulled off a stunning victory. She did all the right things, said the right things, and looked like a prime minister in waiting. Meanwhile, her opponent Jacinda Ardern looked as if she wanted to be somewhere else. Maybe her mind was somewhere else, we'll never know. She was average, lacklustre and considering this is 2020 and global economic shambles time, we expect more of our leaders. 

Currently National are trailing in the polls, but I don't trust them, they've got to be rigged. National are doing fine and I'm picking a change of government will be the result on election day. Remember, I called it the other way back in 2017.

Auckland Harbour Bridge Falling Down

It's a minor example of the decay and lack of investment in New Zealand's infrastructure; Auckland Harbour Bridge was hit by a truck crossing the bridge and now several lanes will be out of action for weeks while repairs are underway. For decades a second option for crossing the harbour has been touted but nothing has ever been done about it. Successive governments have sat on their hands. So commuters have to queue for hours, instead of using a viable alternative.

But this is only the start. Bridges across NZ are chronically underfunded and their maintenance and upgrade has long since been abandoned. With an election just weeks away, hopefully the issues can be kept in focus leading up to polling day, and hopefully voters will bear the lack of investment in mind when they cast their ballot.

Advance NZ

There's a small political tsunami occurring in New Zealand right now; they're called Advance NZ. This new political party was created by ex-National MP Jamie-Lee Ross but where it found its feet was when they joined forces with the New Zealand Public Party. The latter group merged with Advance NZ so they could be on the ballot for the 2020 general election.

Musician Billy TK Jr is behind NZPP. They're an odd bunch, often holding what may be called fringe beliefs; opposing vaccinations and the 1080 poisoning of pests and so on.

Why the tsunami? COVID-19 and the associated lengthy and damaging lockdowns have fuelled support for this group. People already alienated by the existing power structures and the lockdown has led to a feeling of powerlessness. Into this void strode Advance NZ. Combined with an effective social media campaign, numbers attending meetings, protests, rare but well handled appearances on television, Advance NZ are gaining traction. They could make the 5% threshold, while the Greens and NZ First may be out altogether. If this happens, it'll be a major shift in the NZ political landscape.

The next few weeks will be interesting to watch. 

Gerry Brownlee Shut Down

New Zealand deputy leader of the Opposition, Gerry Brownlee has had to distance himself from his earlier remarks about the NZ government's handling of the latest outbreak of COVID-19. What he originally said was quite valid; he pointed out two facts, that NZ prime minister, Jacinda Ardern was visiting a mask factory and that the Director-General of Health, Ashley Bloomfield was publicly filmed giving a sample for COVID-19 testing, just prior to NZ going into another lockdown. Coincidence? I think not.

What the NZ Labour government have done is very cynical, I believe. They had their campaign launch over the weekend, then came back to work and shut down every other party's campaign activities, but crucially the National party campaign launch this weekend in Auckland. It's dirty politics.

Gerry Brownlee implied foul play. I think the implication is real and as plain as day. If the election isn't delayed, then the suspicion is confirmed in my opinion, the election will have been stolen.

New Zealand Back Into Lockdown

New Zealand has been touting itself as having the answer on how to deal with COVID-19. Well they don't, I couldn't put it more bluntly than that.

At the start of the Coronavirus pandemic, NZ was somewhat reluctant to close its borders. It did close to China reasonably early, but remained open to the rest of the World. So the Coronavirus arrived on its shores from Iran and Italy. Then what followed was the most drastic lockdown anywhere. This wrecked the local economy, wiping out all inbound tourism which accounted for almost 20% of export revenue.

Not that clever New Zealand and did this approach work? Not on your life; COVID-19 is back and now NZ goes into Level 2 lockdown across the country and Level 3 in Auckland. The authorities say for a few days, we'll see, I'm not holding my breath.

So what's been going on? I can only give my own opinion about this; I believe community transmission has been around the whole time. This may even extend in some form, right back into last year - 2019. Why do I think this? One of the early casualties was an older person from a remote part of the country, someone who had not come into contact with many people, especially tourists. She was initially diagnosed with pneumonia and this was put down as the cause of death, only to have that revised and updated. It's highly likely there have been many cases like this that have gone unnoticed.

Then recently NZers have gone overseas, and were found to be carrying the virus when they arrived. How did they catch it? At least some of those must have caught the virus when in NZ, meaning community transmission was occurring, something NZers were told no longer existed.

NZ is going into an election campaign that will decide the country's future. It seems NZ's inexperienced and somewhat shallow Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is using the Coronavirus to ensure reelection. That is being done through the timing of these lockdowns to coincide with the election campaign. NZers had a fairly clear indication this was coming; as soon as electioneering began in earnest, the government COVID-19 television advertisements began again. Then a few days before the latest lockdown announcement, talk of requiring the wearing of masks was all over the media. This, despite there being no community transmission according to official sources. In other words, NZers were being softened up.

Rather than announce policy, and debate the direction of the country, Ardern is using a fear campaign to ensure victory. This comes after she effectively bankrupted the country. 

Will people see sense and realise a change of government is needed? Maybe, but if they do not and NZ experiences another three years of Jacinda Ardern at the helm, that may spell the end of the country. It really is that serious. On the plus side, this Coronavirus does not appear that bad after all. You wouldn't want to catch it, but if you do, there is every chance you'll recover. But the panic associated with it is being used by politicians to further their own agendas.

COVID-19 could be Election Decider

New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is allowing students from China into the country to start their studies for 2020. This is a big mistake in my opinion, as the virus is just beginning to spread uncontrollably. It looks as if the NZ government has buckled under pressure from China. Letting in so many students all at once is almost a guarantee someone will bring the virus with them.

With a general election due in a few months; if NZ gets the virus as a result of the PM's decision, that'll be it, she'll be the former prime minister of New Zealand, of that I have no doubt.

Complete Failure of NZ's Electoral System

Back in 1996 New Zealand ditched its traditional first-past-the-post electoral system, and put in its place mixed-member proportional (MMP). There can be no doubt; in a year when NZ has its eighth MMP general election, the system has been proven an outstanding failure.

How did this happen? Why did this happen? The answer to that can be found in the way MMP is structured. MMP is based on the system they have in Germany. It was used there to prevent one party coming to power. You may recall Germany's troubled past, and the rise there of a genocidal regime which resulted in the holocaust and WWII. But NZ doesn't have that kind of background, it didn't need a system to prevent what happened in Germany happening in Aotearoa.

It gets worse, given NZ's small size, the type of electoral and regional diversity Germany has, doesn't exist in NZ. Oh, I hear you say, yes it does. Err, I reply, no it doesn't, one region doesn't go to war with another and NZ doesn't have principalities. You get the idea.

So NZ embraces MMP and things...don't change that much. NZ was assured the advantage of MMP was it would deliver majority governments (where the government commands 50% or more of the popular vote). It didn't happen, what happened is NZ still received minority governments, except many of its representatives had never, could never win an electorate seat. That's the reality. And politicians who lose their electorate seat, come back in off the party list, they get to keep their jobs. It's like the cat came back, it wouldn't stay away.

Not only that, but voters never get what they voted for. The election is more like a beauty contest, you vote for whoever takes your fancy and trust them to deliver something in coalition negotiations. And what you do receive is likely to be nothing.

Then in 2017 things turned worse. The coalition between Labour and NZ First actually had fewer votes than the Opposition. Incredible but true, the coalition is propped up by the Greens, who get a pay-off in the form of ministerial positions, but avoid accountability by actually being in the government with their feet under the Cabinet table (putting a bob each way in effect).

Now the latest polling has the Greens on the precipice, just 20,000 votes away from failing to make the 5% threshold as they cannot win an electorate seat. NZ First are polling well under the 5% and they may fail to get a seat (they also have none at present). NZ has in a very short space of time, found itself right back where it was with first-past-the-post, in a close head-to-head contest, Labour vs National.

What may result, and is quite likely in fact, is one of the two will govern NZ alone, no need for a coalition agreement, and after receiving far fewer than 50% support. Where to after that? Over time I predict a splintering of political support after this period of consolidation.

To understand what I'm banging on about, consider the supermarket aisle and the soft drink selection (soda or pop for those in North America). In the early days selection may have been simple and purely price driven. That's where NZ is right now with MMP. Then as tastes change and competition heats up, new brands emerge to compete for shelf space. Now when you head down that aisle the consumer is barraged with choices. This is what I believe will happen under MMP in NZ after the price or value driven phase.

That final stage presents real dangers as we're not really talking about consumer choice. We're talking democracy, freedom Westminster-style and it could be lost. Here's how this could happen, admittedly this is more speculative, there are far too many permutations to be accurate, but read on:

1. Phase one; multiple brands with at least a seat or 5% support are far more valuable. It makes sense to segment the market, by region and political belief; town vs country, christian vs atheist, environmentalists vs industrialists - ripping the country apart - you get the idea.

2. Phase two; fifth columnists are more valuable than consensus builders. Wreckers trump builders. Reverse mergers can occur whereby party faithful from one party join the enemy and wreck the other party from within. (There is no law in NZ saying an individual cannot belong to more than one party, although most parties have their own rules preventing it. It's hard to stop spies, and in time will become impossible).

3. Phase three; secret coalition deals end up with the elite running everything. Voters will not know if a secret deal exists or not. Voters will choose a brand to their taste, but later find that party is loyal to another party altogether. Imagine buying cherry Coke only to find it turned into classic Coke. This is a distinct possibility in this MMP environment.

It's all very undemocratic and I predict it will spell the end of NZ. It will pull itself apart, critical infrastructure will be ignored in order to chase the latest fad, defence will be ignored as it offers no immediate pay-off. In the end NZ will be annexed by Australia as it can't afford to have such a weak southern neighbour.

And how soon will this happen. Originally I thought this would be in the lifetime of my grandchildren. But things are happening so fast now, I think it may be in my lifetime. Not that long then.