New Zealand General Election 2020: What Just Happened?

In simple terms, the centre-right of the political spectrum in New Zealand have been slaughtered. That's the polite way of describing the outcome of the 2020 General Election. Labour can govern alone, they gained 49.1% of the party vote and 64 seats in the house.

Before I drill down into some specifics, the way I see Labour achieving their stunning victory was through two significant shifts among voters. The first was the flight of NZ First back to Labour. I'd describe 60% of NZ First as old Labour; retired unionists and blue collar workers. They returned to the fold and NZ First are no longer represented in parliament. Then more significantly, middle class and upper middle class voters ditched the National party and voted Labour for the first time. They voted against their class interests and I believe they'll suffer because of it, but more of how and why below.

Let's examine two formerly safe National seats for a snapshot of what I'm talking about; Ilam in the city of Christchurch and the rural Canterbury seat of Rangitata in the South Island.

Ilam is about as "blue" as it gets. About 20% of houses in Ilam are owned by a family trust and 30% of people there earn more than $100,000 a year. Half the population of Ilam are professionals or managers. They drive cars bought new, not old import secondhand ones. A decent house will cost more than a million dollars. Right, that said, they've now elected a Labour member of parliament, who will enjoy a 2,200 vote majority. The previous incumbent, Gerry Brownlee had held the seat for National its entire existence and last election he had a majority of over 8,000 votes. That's nearly an 11,000 vote turnaround in just three years. If you'd told me this and I didn't know otherwise, I'd say you're dreaming. More like a nightmare actually, that's how bad that result is. And Labour won the all-important party vote in Ilam for the first time, by a stunning 4,800 over National. 

Then to the rich farmlands of Rangitata. Rich, yes, they're not struggling farmers from this rich region in Canterbury. The farmers of Rangitata have got millions in equity in their farms and some are known to buy a brand new tractor every year. The electorate traditionally doesn't know what the Labour party is, well it does now as it has a Labour MP with a 3,400 vote majority. Three years ago National had the majority with 6,300 votes. That's another stunning reversal. Now, it could be said that as this electorate incorporates Timaru and Temuka that it does include working class. And I'd agree but its close neighbours, Waitaki and Selwyn which are far more conservative also lost the party vote to Labour.

To those voters who changed sides, do you realise what you've just done? You've effectively given Labour the right to tax you out of existence. Labour will not protect you. Your business, your house, your income, your property portfolio will no longer be off-limits.

Why did these middle class and upper-middle class voters switch and vote Labour? It has to be the Jacinda Ardern factor. As Labour leader she better reflects the NZ electorate. NZ society has changed and traditional Christian values are no longer paramount. These former National voters have been duped in effect, by niceness and messages of inclusivity. Of course, they'll flip back to the right when their bank accounts are impacted, but by then it may too late.

The Greens polled about where they usually do. In the past they've been as high as 11% with leaders' Russel Norman and Metiria Turei, so their 7.6% of the party vote is middle of the road. They did win the seat of Auckland Central and no doubt the Greens will rejoice, but Auckland Central is a bit flaky and so the result, while surprising, was not beyond the realms of possibility.

ACT are a little more to the right than National and they picked up 8% of the party vote, likely largely from National voters trying to shore up the right. That's good for them and at least we'll have a strong alternative centre/right voice in parliament. This was the best ever result for ACT and they have the opportunity now to push on and increase this further. They'll need discipline and hard work.

Where to from here? National need to do a complete rethink. They need to get back to their rural and affluent suburban base and ask important questions. Why? And don't lurch to the right or go toward evangelical Christians because that'd be a disaster, clearly societal changes mean people are quite happy with the looser morals of Labour (and the Greens for that matter). No knee-jerk reactions, the way forward has to be thought through. But something that is immediately needed, and that is a clean-out of the dead wood, top to bottom. Party organisational hierarchies have been around forever, the National party needs a new broom to sweep the place clean.