Trump or Biden?

The final debate between the US President, Donald Trump and his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden has just concluded. There was no clear winner as both appeared to be talking to those narrower demographics they needed to win over on November 3.

Trump trails Biden in opinion polls across the USA. However, this was also the case back in 2016. Then it was clear to any casual observer that Trump was going to win and I blogged about it at the time. That's because outside of California and New York, Trump was widely popular. There was a mood for change. 

The popular vote doesn't count in presidential elections, rather, candidates must secure the Electoral College and to do that they must receive no fewer than 270 Electoral College votes. Biden could end up in the same position as Hillary Clinton in 2016, safe in California and the north-eastern states, but washed out in the middle of the country. Based on current polling, Biden has a clear advantage, but if Trump pulls in enough toss-up states, he could certainly be reelected.

So, what's my prediction? If I was a gambler I'd pick Biden. However, I'm going with Trump to repeat 2016. I know, this is something of a surprise as I was heavily invested in Hillary Clinton back in 2016, but I correctly called it for Trump back then anyway.

This time I can see the last four years haven't been a disaster and crucially, no wars. Trump is now increasingly popular with African American and Latino men and their numbers could just tip the balance in some toss-up states.

Biden is getting old and sounds disjointed at times. I read somewhere that if he wins he'll become the President who has done least to win. He hasn't been out there doing enough, instead relying on people like Barack Obama and his running mate Kamala Harris. The latter is eminently qualified, but I don't see her resonating with voters. Why? She's from California and worse still, she's from San Francisco. Americans love to hate California and San Franciscans. 

Americans will be aware that Harris could become President given Biden's age. The only President from California was Richard Nixon. I am sure many older voters will remember this and avoid Harris. It's a small point I know, but the challenger has to win, all Trump has to do is repeat his Electoral College success, he's not interested in winning the popular vote.

My record when it comes to making predictions is pretty good although not stellar. I long predicted Brexit, that the referendum would be in favour of leaving the EU. I also predicted Scotland remaining within the UK but didn't see their leaving as a big problem in any case. I predicted Jacinda Ardern's victory in New Zealand in 2017 and Boris Johnson's victory in the UK after remain camp stalling tactics in the Palace at Westminster. However, I have also got things wrong, the most recent being Ardern's reelection and increased majority in 2020 after a prolonged period of economic mismanagement by her.

So, we'll see. My head says Biden based on the polls. But I'm calling it Trump in 2020 based on what happened in 2016 and Biden not working hard enough in the campaign.

Update: looking at the electoral map from 2016, several states narrowly won by Clinton in 2016 may go Trump in 2020. The much talked about critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania may not come into play at all. If Trump loses all three but picks up Nevada and Colorado, he still holds on to the Presidency (assuming other states remain as they were in 2016).