Critical Shortages Loom As War Continues

Lack of urea and sulphur, not just diesel, are about to cause massive reductions in farm output. Governments across the world appear to be living in denial. This is very serious.

Will the US Actually Buy Iran Diesel?

Ben Meiselis of Meidas Touch media claims that, due to Ukraine's successful attacks on Russian refineries, the US will really be buying Iranian diesel, rather than Russian diesel in the much publicised deal Donald Trump has been boasting about.

Has anyone noticed that since Ukraine attacked Yandex data centres, that the prevalence of bots on the internet has dried up?

Diesel Crisis

The shortage of diesel has started in the US, not long now New Zealand, this shortage is very real.

Oil Crisis Arrives

The New Zealand government failed to heed the warnings and here we are, diesel could run out. The government has had months to secure the physical supply, but instead they talked, muddled, got assurances, accords, understandings, pricing mechanisms up the wazoo. 

Lesson: the complete lack of something is nothing. No amount of talking about it creates something. You've either got something or you don't; wishing, hoping and praying isn't action.

What I am talking about is NZ lacking any refining capability, while also having limitless quantities of lignite coal it could turn into diesel, but no efforts have been taken to put any plans into action.

Meanwhile, the world oil supply is now severely restricted following the Houthis taking control of the Red Sea, Iraqi-based militia blowing up Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, and Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz. 

The NZ government needs to take immediate action, take tangible steps to produce diesel, or the whole country will fail, and by that I mean starve - literally.

Fuel Crisis Real

With war going fully regional in the Middle East, we are now looking at the possibility of diesel running out. This is not a pricing exercise, it is a have nothing at all crisis. I put it like this; if you have no water you're dead two and a half days later. It doesn't matter that a bottle of water hundreds of miles away is only a dollar, you can't reach it, so you die.

When it comes to diesel, it is like that complete lack of water. No diesel, no economy. It doesn't matter that diesel in some other part of the world is cheap, or whatever.

Thing is, both the Australia and New Zealand governments have had months to solve this, but they played politics, happy feelings, sing kumbaya, hope and pray.

Volkswagen Software Glitches

This is partly the reason I don't trust German software. It comes with bugs, because Germans always do things inhouse, instead of hiring the best. I've experienced this first hand with Lufthansa and so I had to laugh when I heard about it with Volkswagen. 

I remember back in the late 90s and early 2000s, hearing about their diesel engines, how clean they were. I thought to myself, they're probably faking it. That turned out to be true!

(Excuse the AI voice, these narrations are becoming somewhat irritating)

Emergency Planning for New Zealand

Forget raindrops, diesel is running low. New Zealand has 21 days onshore, in tanks, right now. Three weeks and if any of the ships inbound don't arrive, the country runs out and the economy fails.

I looked things up and found the country can survive, kind of. NZ has about 100 steam locomotives, 20 of which are in regular use and ready to go. These operate on heritage lines and do tourist excursions. They may have to go back to work. Likewise, traction engine operators may be called upon.

The central section of the North Island main trunk railway line is electrified, thanks to Rob Muldoon's Think Big scheme, and another Think Big was NZ's conversion of LPG to urea fertiliser, which supplies a third of urea required by farmers. 

So, NZ will not come to a complete standstill, and farms will still be able to operate, but farmers may need to get back on the horse. Coal is still plentiful, it may come in handy.

NZ has a lot of wood waste, and this can be converted to biodiesel. However, the problem with biodiesel is it has a higher freezing point, so cannot be used in colder areas; think central North Island and the South Island's alpine areas and Otago and Southland. 

When food arrives in cities, electric vehicles will be needed to pick goods up and move them to warehouses and shops. Some electric buses could have their seats removed and be used as vans.

Given how stretched things will be, the country will need to work 24/7. To move around within cities, people will have to ride bicycles and electric vehicles. Many buses are now electric and they will still be working. However, as diesel vehicles are needed to maintain the electrical infrastructure, there will be more frequent outages, and people will die as back-up generators in hospitals will have nothing in the tank, or only 3 hours with refueling delayed beyond that. Fire engines may be unavailable if the country runs out of diesel. There are countless ways NZ will be adversely affected by the loss of diesel, these are just a few examples.

NZ needs to start taking this seriously. I have a plan and this should have been done already: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Update: The NZ government is incompetent. To think they're the party of the farmers! And yet they've kicked farmers in the teeth. Will farmers realise they're in an abusive relationship, or will they, as always, go back to their abuser, believing this time will be different?

Update: Reuters is reporting that Russia, from the 1st of May, is going to stop the transfer of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via a pipeline that runs through their territory. This will put more pressure on existing fuel supplies as Germany looks to replace this lost supply with other sources of crude being imported by ship. NZ is at the end of the supply chain and has no leverage due to the small quantities required, thus, it is likely to be further squeezed. The NZ government appears oblivious.

Oil - Lots of It

What does a barrel of oil contain, what products are derived from it, and what are the different types of crude oil?

1. Types of Crude

2. Refining Process - Like Making Moonshine

 

3. Refining Output - Various Products

Australia's Military Compromised

I wondered how long it would take for the penny to drop. Without fuel, Australia won't be able to defend itself.

Asian Countries Introduce Fuel Restrictions

Here's a quick outline of what some Asian countries are doing to ration fuel. 

How Much in the Tank?

Australia has less than a month of fuel in reserve. Watch as it implodes as the conflict in the Middle East worsens. I made only one prediction for this year and that was - Australia will collapse in 2026.

EV vs Diesel Challenge - Who Wins?

Two well known YouTube channels went head to head, driving their cars from John o' Groats to Lands End in the UK, to see who would get there first and which was cheaper.

The outcome is quite surprising - watch the embedded video to discover the result.

US Diesel Stocks Running Low

Just putting this here for you to ponder. It is reported that the US is down to 25 days of diesel left in the system. If stocks become depleted, nothing moves, farming stops, diesel is that critical to everything. Places like New Zealand will really suffer as the US has huge buying power and they'll bid up the price, meaning NZ will be left with nothing.

From the US:

US is running out of diesel