End of the Lucky Country

Australia is going down. I called this 16 years ago, now it's a reality. Last year, I pulled out the last bit of money I had in Australia. 

Iran Opens Strait, For Now

Good news, Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz so long as the ceasefire in Lebanon holds. Ships must still go through their tollgate though, which limits the speed with which ships can exit the Gulf. I checked on Marine Traffic's website and there isn't a flood of vessels underway, but expect this number to increase significantly. 

Now, Australia and NZ governments, don't sit back and claim credit for everything while doing precisely nothing. Now is the window of opportunity to come up with distillation solutions for your own oil. How long do you need just sitting around on your hands, you clowns!

Here's what to do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Massive Oil Downunder

The corrupt politicians will tell everyone there is no oil in Australia or New Zealand. Quite the contrary, both contain massive resources of oil that are almost diesel coming up out of the ground.

Blockade of a Blockade Restricts Supply

The United States has now put into effect its blockade of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; a blockade of a blockade. For any country importing its oil from the Persian Gulf, this makes things much worse. That's because, with Iran's single blockade, some oil did get through. Take China as an example, they obtain about 40% of their total energy imports from the Gulf. Now, that supply appears shut off, which forces China to start buying from other suppliers, driving up the price of oil generally, but also denying smaller nations like Australia and New Zealand. China's volume demand is so great, they could now soak up everything. 

What is astonishing to me is how lightly the Australian and New Zealand governments are taking this. They are like sheep being led into the abattoir. Immediate action is required - this is what the NZ government must do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

Why the Strait of Hormuz Is So Important to Australia and New Zealand

A bit of simple arithmetic is needed to explain why the closing of the Strait of Hormuz could destroy the economies of Australia and New Zealand.

Both countries rely on imported refined product from Asia. New Zealand is wholly dependent while Australia is about 90% dependent. China has ceased exporting product, so cross them off the list. That leaves, for the most part; South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia as suppliers.

South Korea processes up to 3.4m bpd (million barrels per day), 2.5m of which is consumed domestically. 70% of their supply comes from the Middle East.

Singapore processes about 1.5m bpd, and they import 70% of their oil from the Middle East.

Malaysia processes about 900,000 bpb, and they import about 40% of that oil from the Middle East as they have their own oil wells. Domestically, they consume about 77% of the total and export the rest.

I trust you may begin to see the problem. With a huge amount of Middle Eastern oil coming through the Strait, but now shut off, these Asian economies will need to prioritise their own market first, and even then they'll come up short.

South Korea has begun buying oil from Canada, about 800,000 barrels per day. That's well short of the 2.4m bpd needed. They can only just supply themselves, leaving nothing to export. 

Singapore looks set to lose 1.0m bpd, and that equates to the daily consumption of Australia. Forget NZ, they'll just be left to fail.

Malaysia, just to supply its own needs, will have to import from other sources, just as South Korea is doing.

All of this adds up to a very serious predicament Downunder. I see the Philippines has declared a state of emergency, and that is a wise thing to do. Australia and New Zealand need to follow suit as this war in the Middle East could drag on for a long time, that much is obvious. 

Another link - what to do NOW https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html

What's Going On in Australia?

 Is a full fuel lockdown coming?

Update: Strait of Hormuz

The amount of oil and gas being carried through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, from an average of over a hundred tankers daily during February, down to an average of six tankers daily in March. However, there is a trend of some tankers running the strait by sticking close to the Omani shore, while others are paying the toll to Iran and going through the toll gate they've set up between Larak Island and Qeshm Island (not a literal toll gate, but a passage through which ships must travel).

Russian oil is back in the mix, too, and Southeast Asian refineries appear to be using this oil as additional feedstock.

What may happen is that the world gets to a point where the price of fuel is simply high all the time, with a new normal being that Iran has control of a huge chunk of global supply. 

Countries like Australia and New Zealand will have to suck this up, for now, but then move swiftly to self-sufficiency, as they both have the resources. They both lack the ability to process these resources, and so they must move to fully industrialise.

Australia's Military Compromised

I wondered how long it would take for the penny to drop. Without fuel, Australia won't be able to defend itself.

Australia Fuel Crisis, Food Shortages Loom?

With 25 million mouths to feed, how will Australia feed its people affordably if the diesel and fertiliser costs soar?

Australia and New Zealand Get Roasted

Deserved shellacking this:

For New Zealand, a whole series of decisions amounted to sabotage.

Fuel Crisis Needs Urgent Action

Both Australia's and New Zealand's governments refuse to take action. It is as if they want the countries to fail.

Can you ride a horse? I can.

Australia to Underwrite Extra Fuel Imports

Getting the idea New Zealand? Do something. 

No idea if this measure will help, but at least it's an attempt.

Australia's Fuel Crisis Is Real

Australia and New Zealand are so cooked. The people running things are morons on an epic scale. 

Collapse of Australia Looms

Founder and CEO of Clime Investment Management, John Abernethy, explains where Australia is headed, given the course they're on. You might as well add New Zealand to the list, everything he says applies to that country as well.

Oil Crisis

Iran has clearly prepared for this and are setting about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. They're being successful at it, and are now attacking tankers and oil transfer facilities in the region.

For Australia and New Zealand, this is becoming an existential crisis. Already, farms in remote rural locations in Australia are finding they cannot obtain diesel. Hardware stores have sold out of jerry cans as people stock up. 

New Zealand is steadfastly blundering onward, their heads firmly in the sand. The country's leaders are woefully incompetent, it's like leaving a bunch of ten year-olds in charge. Here are some things to think about, diesel is essential to the nation, thus:

• Fuel oil is required for ships and all of NZ's fuel oil comes out of the Persian Gulf. If fuel oil runs out, there will be no Cook Strait ferries running, and no coastal shipping either. Forget imports and exports, as ships will not visit if they cannot fill up when they arrive.
• People will die as hospital back-up generators will have no fuel to run.
• Trains will not run, apart from electric commuter rail (the main trunk line in the North Island is partly electric).
• Farms will stop working.
• Mines will stop working and so no coal as a substitute.
• No trucks delivering goods to supermarkets.
• No factories processing food as parts of all operations require something diesel powered - we all start to starve in a country containing enough food to feed 50 million people. Crops will rot in the field.
• Natural disasters, how are we going to clear roads blocked by landslips?

Can you ride a horse? I can, but I guess they'll be in strong demand, so will be hard to find.

What is worse is that NZ does have oil, gas and coal, but it threw its refining capacity away - literally. EV's are not the answer either as the Gulf is the source of 90%+ of the industrial supplies of sulphur required to produce batteries - oh dear - rainbow hugs and moonbeams won't do it.

Instead of talking about it, get on with powering up some ability to produce diesel, bio-diesel, anything. 

Australia and New Zealand Fertiliser and Hormuz

New Zealand and Australia rely on fertiliser coming out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict goes on much longer, their respective economies will be severely impacted.

Prediction 2026

I've got just the one prediction for 2026, and that is, Australia is going to fail. That's because they're heavily indebted and faced with a slowdown in China. That means less coal and iron ore sales to China and less exports of food there as well. 

The mortgage market in Australia will suffer serious reversals in all the major cities, wiping out homeowner equity. Smaller banks may fail. Unemployment will skyrocket.

Remember, you read it here first.

Australian Banks Ripping Off Customers

In New Zealand, Westpac Bank has gone in the opposite direction in response to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowering its Official Cash Rate or OCR.

There have been a lot of excuses given by the bank and economists about why this move. That's because one would expect banks to lower mortgage interest rates when the Reserve Bank lowers the OCR. I think Westpac has raised interest rates to prop up Australia. New Zealanders are subsidising the Australians.

Here's my thinking: Australia has a major problem. China is slowing up and will not be buying the same volume of coal and iron ore, simply because it won't be making as much stuff and won't need the amount of steel it has previously. Australia needs this business as it lacks its own industry. Australia has always thought it a good idea to rip raw materials out of the ground, export, then take the money and buy flat screen TV's with the proceeds.

Australia is also faced with higher inflationary expectations. They've mismanaged their economy, and expect Kiwis to pay. It's as simple as that.

NZ should stay the course. Inflation does appear under control and confidence has returned. Kiwis should think carefully about whether moving to Australia is a good idea as there is a real risk of being stranded without a job. 

As a side note, Australia is currently heavily promoting itself to Kiwis. They're using positive and negative campaigns. The positive ones mention better quality of life and higher pay. The negative campaign says NZ is falling apart (it isn't), and that everyone is leaving (they aren't). This kind of advertising can have real consequences. I recently saw a young doctor originally from Christchurch, on YouTube describing her life on the Sunshine Coast now she's moved to Australia. She described how she'd gone from receiving free meals at Christchurch Public Hospital, and all learning materials being paid for, to Australia where she has to pay for meals and pay for everything else. Then, she described trying to get onto her speciality course, and not being able to. Well, no shit Sherlock, the Australians will always prefer their own, the immigrant is there to work, not to get ahead. And based on the Sunshine Coast, a swamp two hours from Brisbane. She gave up living in the most positive city with a wonderful buzz, to go to the Sunshine Coast to be eaten by mosquitoes. And despite the negatives, she remained positive about her move; all I can to that is a fool and her money are soon parted. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/581436/finance-minister-advises-mortgage-holders-to-shop-around-as-westpac-increases-rates

China Collapsing?

This could be propaganda, but if there is any truth to it, then the world is going into a serious downturn. The below report says that migrant workers in China are going home early, well before the Chinese New Year as there is no work. These workers are itinerant day workers, they work in places like restaurants and construction sites. They drive the Chinese economy.

Migrant workers come from the rural areas into the cities. Their incomes keep their families back in the villages alive. Their early return is a serious problem as they boost the population in rural areas, and they must be fed. This leaves less food crops to be sold. 

Seeing this, I thought Australia is in serious trouble too as they rely on China buying their mine output. Currently, Australia is desperately promoting itself to try and keep immigrants coming in, bringing their skills and money with them. New Zealanders should think very carefully about whether going to Australia is a good idea because if their economy does collapse, there will be no lifeline for them, and the NZ government will not pay for them to come home.

Propaganda Australia

I've noticed Australia is going full-on promoting its lies about how great its country is. For those who do not know, Australia is going down, sooner rather than later. They're living on borrowed time. 

Some of their propaganda relentlessly attacks New Zealand. They do this to try and brainwash Kiwis into moving there. Australia needs Kiwis to sell up and take their money to that fly blown country, and prop it up with their superior skills. Australia is a Ponzi scheme. 

I stopped posting answers to Quora because of these unfair attacks on NZ. The propagandists would put up a bunny question: which country is better, Australia or New Zealand, based on the following criteria (insert random criteria here), and then the answers had to conclude Australia, of course. When I proved, based on objective data, that NZ wins the prize, my answers were removed. 

Now, on YouTube, the same sort of thing is happening. Bunches of videos are put out at the same time, all effectively attacking Kiwiland. Given the way these videos are produced and their timing, I've concluded the Australian government is promoting this nonsense.

Australia is getting desperate. China has started buying Soybeans from the US again, and they no longer need Australian iron ore. Not only that, Australia came 15th at the Athletics World Championships this year, New Zealand was fifth - suck on my big left one, Australia. 

Oh, and Australia has an inflation rate higher than New Zealand.

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi/news/496897

Australia’s annual inflation rate jumped to 3.2% in Q3 2025 from 2.1% in Q2, marking the highest figure since Q2 2024 and surpassing market estimates of 3.0%.