Full conflict has resumed, and the problem for the West is oil has been further depleted. After the MOU was signed, oil flows recovered to about 25% of flows prior to the war. So, global oil reserves have still been used to keep things moving.
I recently saw a video accurately examining Iran's strikes on countries in the Gulf. The extent of damage is much greater than has been disclosed previously.
This is very serious.
The US may go to war against Iran on the ground. This is next level stupidity, but the US appears upset that it lost the war.
Who to believe? The US and its tame media says that it has delivered a stunning blow to Iran. Meanwhile, Iran says it has caused serious damage to US interests in the Persian Gulf. The below report seems to substantiate the latter; US bases in the Persian Gulf have been severely impacted.
The 'deal' between the US and Iran hands Iran a huge win. Key in all this is the next 60 days. Over that time, while the final deal is being drafted, global oil reserves will be run down more and yet only a trickle of oil will leave the Persian Gulf. Moreover, oil that does get out will take time to process when it arrives at refineries. Iran can simply shut down the Strait of Hormuz again and completely crush its enemies.
Iran did not get everything they were after, but they've clearly won the war that the US started. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was open, operating as an international waterway. Now, fees will be paid by commercial vessels transiting, and Israeli vessels can be excluded.
Iran do not get sanctions relief, but half of the money held overseas will be freed up. The Gulf States have guaranteed to pay, thus, if the US do not release the funds, then the Gulf States will pay regardless. Basically, Iran is going to be rolling in cash. That'll make Pakistan, China and Russia very happy as Iran will buy more from them.
A quick scorecard, winners and losers:
Winners
Iran - their oil revenues have increased since the outbreak of the war. According to the Wall Street Journal, they're now selling 985,000 barrels of oil per day to China via the rail corridor that runs through the Stans between Iran and China. The marshalling yards for this traffic sit within Turkmenistan, and that's where loads are taken off standard gauge and placed upon the old Soviet wide gauge track. The trains are about 50 wagons long, 66 tons each wagon, and each oil tank holds about 400-500 barrels. Iran charge China's 'teapot' refiners Brent + $1.50. This compares with volumes of about 1.38m bpd via the Strait of Hormuz before the war. Thus, Iran in revenue terms is raking in about the equivalent of 1.5m bpd levels from before the war. They knew they were going to be attacked. Leading up they were shipping a lot of crude and simply parking it out there on the water. The US then lifted sanctions on this oil and Iran profited. They must have laughed. Iran also has rail links with Russia, Pakistan, and via the Caspian Sea and into Russia's Volga-Don canal system and ultimately the Black Sea. Iran now has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, and it remains shut to those it considers its enemies.
Israel - they are now the US's only remaining ally in the region. They would have noticed the rise of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and in particular, Saudi Arabia. These states have been selling their soft power, with Saudi Arabia using sports promotions like LIV Golf to sell themselves. Israel won't have been happy with this overall, and now they can sit back and watch these states distance themselves from the US.
Russia - they're happy with the high oil prices. They've shut down the pipeline from Kazakhstan to Germany, likely motivated by the incentive of lifting prices.
Losers
USA - their attack has resulted in a massive strategic defeat. They've compromised food security and the world economy generally. American farmers will be livid as the attack on Iran came just before planting - not good timing.
Gulf States - they were mistaken in thinking the US could protect them. Dubai may come back to an extent, but people will never forget, and zero tax doesn't help one bit when a bomb may land on your bonce.
Asia (apart from China) - all Asian countries have been compromised and they'll likely move toward greater independence and away from the US.
China - they'd prefer the Strait of Hormuz to open, for conflict to end. They won't be greatly adversely affected but given their merchant outlook, they'd profit from less conflict, not more.
Oceania - they stand to go out of existence if they don't quickly get their act together.
Africa - famine is possible, and their oil fields and refineries are only just now being built. This war came at a bad time for them.
Europe - deindustrialisation has proven to be a fool's errand. They're badly exposed with high cost structures and with few allies.
North, South and Central America (apart from the US) - they've been compromised, but countries like Canada have gained from their own oil sales to Asia. The picture is patchy, but overall a loss.
The war has benefited very few interests, and harmed most. End the war now.
Some appear to be getting it, finally. With the current oil crisis, we are not talking pricing, we are talking about the complete lack of something.
Is oil moving? No. The politicians do not seem to realise that in situations such as this, where there is a complete lack of something, markets don't really work. Nothing is still nothing.
Look at it like this; if you're dying of thirst in the desert, what the futures market is saying about what a glass of water is worth will do nothing of real value, you will still die of thirst as you have no water.
What has been happening to the crew stuck on ships caught in the Persian Gulf? I've been wondering if some crew may simply abandon ship, and then row to shore while leaving the vessel anchored.
The United States has now put into effect its blockade of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; a blockade of a blockade. For any country importing its oil from the Persian Gulf, this makes things much worse. That's because, with Iran's single blockade, some oil did get through. Take China as an example, they obtain about 40% of their total energy imports from the Gulf. Now, that supply appears shut off, which forces China to start buying from other suppliers, driving up the price of oil generally, but also denying smaller nations like Australia and New Zealand. China's volume demand is so great, they could now soak up everything.
What is astonishing to me is how lightly the Australian and New Zealand governments are taking this. They are like sheep being led into the abattoir. Immediate action is required - this is what the NZ government must do: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-zealand-fuel-crisis-action-required.html
3. Refining Output - Various Products
Diesel could soon run out, and if that happens, food shortages will become very real. Australia is openly talking about it, and New Zealand must wake up.
The governments of Australia and New Zealand are inept, we need to get started with securing diesel supplies NOW.
Interesting initial reaction, I'll check over the next few hours whether the markets react positively or negatively.
I watched it live, but I have to confess I'm none the wiser. President Trump said what he'd already posted on social media, and left a lot up in the air. What, exactly, was that all about?
It does have the appearance of market manipulation. Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline, and the markets fell significantly. Then, with the deadline looming, he came up with a potential deal, and the markets rose significantly. Anyone who knew of these announcements could have made a fortune. What do you think?
