October 31, 2020
The Press Betrayed America
October 29, 2020
October 23, 2020
Trump or Biden?
The final debate between the US President, Donald Trump and his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden has just concluded. There was no clear winner as both appeared to be talking to those narrower demographics they needed to win over on November 3.
Trump trails Biden in opinion polls across the USA. However, this was also the case back in 2016. Then it was clear to any casual observer that Trump was going to win and I blogged about it at the time. That's because outside of California and New York, Trump was widely popular. There was a mood for change.
The popular vote doesn't count in presidential elections, rather, candidates must secure the Electoral College and to do that they must receive no fewer than 270 Electoral College votes. Biden could end up in the same position as Hillary Clinton in 2016, safe in California and the north-eastern states, but washed out in the middle of the country. Based on current polling, Biden has a clear advantage, but if Trump pulls in enough toss-up states, he could certainly be reelected.
So, what's my prediction? If I was a gambler I'd pick Biden. However, I'm going with Trump to repeat 2016. I know, this is something of a surprise as I was heavily invested in Hillary Clinton back in 2016, but I correctly called it for Trump back then anyway.
This time I can see the last four years haven't been a disaster and crucially, no wars. Trump is now increasingly popular with African American and Latino men and their numbers could just tip the balance in some toss-up states.
Biden is getting old and sounds disjointed at times. I read somewhere that if he wins he'll become the President who has done least to win. He hasn't been out there doing enough, instead relying on people like Barack Obama and his running mate Kamala Harris. The latter is eminently qualified, but I don't see her resonating with voters. Why? She's from California and worse still, she's from San Francisco. Americans love to hate California and San Franciscans.
Americans will be aware that Harris could become President given Biden's age. The only President from California was Richard Nixon. I am sure many older voters will remember this and avoid Harris. It's a small point I know, but the challenger has to win, all Trump has to do is repeat his Electoral College success, he's not interested in winning the popular vote.
My record when it comes to making predictions is pretty good although not stellar. I long predicted Brexit, that the referendum would be in favour of leaving the EU. I also predicted Scotland remaining within the UK but didn't see their leaving as a big problem in any case. I predicted Jacinda Ardern's victory in New Zealand in 2017 and Boris Johnson's victory in the UK after remain camp stalling tactics in the Palace at Westminster. However, I have also got things wrong, the most recent being Ardern's reelection and increased majority in 2020 after a prolonged period of economic mismanagement by her.
So, we'll see. My head says Biden based on the polls. But I'm calling it Trump in 2020 based on what happened in 2016 and Biden not working hard enough in the campaign.
Update: looking at the electoral map from 2016, several states narrowly won by Clinton in 2016 may go Trump in 2020. The much talked about critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania may not come into play at all. If Trump loses all three but picks up Nevada and Colorado, he still holds on to the Presidency (assuming other states remain as they were in 2016).
October 20, 2020
NZ General Election 2020: Was It Rigged?
I am surprised by the number of people saying to me that the New Zealand General Election was rigged. For many, the results appear too cute to be real. Almost right across the board, with only one or two exceptions, a majority in each electorate party voted Labour. This includes even safe and solidly 'blue' seats held by National. I'll give you some examples; Judith Collins is the Leader of the Opposition and holds the safe Auckland seat of Papakura for National. She won on the night with a comfortable majority of nearly 6,000. However, the party vote was lost to Labour by 400.
Selwyn is also interesting. It is a largely rural seat in the South Island, full of rich farmers. It is a safe National seat formerly held by Amy Adams who was standing down. The new candidate for National was Nicola Grigg and she held the seat with a majority of nearly 5,000. For a first time candidate, that's pretty good. However, the party vote was lost to Labour by a whopping 2,385 on the night. That's almost unthinkable in a seat considered very Blue.
Rangitikei is its equivalent in the North Island. National to the core, the National party candidate won comfortably but the party vote was lost to Labour by 4,583. Do you see the pattern? Even if truly conservative in nature the pattern is almost always the same, National lost to Labour when the party votes are counted. Even Botany in Auckland, being contested for National and won by the high profile former CEO of Air Zealand, lost the party vote to Labour.
Those saying the result is rigged look at the cuteness of all this and then say that this should not be consistent throughout the country. Voting for a candidate different from the party is somewhat difficult. In the polling station you're given a form and it has on the left hand side of the page the parties contesting the election, and then on the right hand side of the page, next to the party name is the candidate for that very same party. If choosing one party, it is highly likely the voter will also tick the name alongside that same party. This didn't happen in so many cases, consistently people voted for Labour and then searched down the list of candidates to find the National electorate candidate. Is this credible?
Epsom is a counter example. For many elections, voters have given their party vote to National but preferred as their local member of parliament, ACT leader David Seymour and many of his predecessors before him. This was a strategic move, ensuring National had a coalition partner. Voters were being tactical and not throwing away their party vote at all. They remained National, but they gained a coalition partner for their party, who was returned to parliament as an electorate member along with others off the party list if ACT received enough party votes.
What can normally be expected to happen? In the past, when the tide was going out for National, Labour held seats went even redder, while National seats moved to the left but still held up, albeit with a smaller majority. The trend tends to be for rock solid National supporters to never vary their party vote, however examples do exist of them changing their less important candidate vote.
Do you see where I'm going with this? The 2020 result is remarkable because across the entire country, solid National voters ditched and voted for the enemy, but nevertheless had the good sense to vote for their National party electorate candidate. Is this believable?
Clearly, while not proven election interference, close scrutiny must be given to the results. Perhaps a recount could be held in Selwyn and Rangitikei, with independent scrutineers present. If nothing is done, this could lead to further distrust of the process.
Update: it has been pointed out to me that rigging the outcome of the election would be a relatively simple affair. Here was me thinking it was complicated, that data entry operators would have to be in on it. No, ballots could simply be thrown away, or at the very least not counted at all and then thrown away later when the opportunity presented itself. But wouldn't this make the turnout look wrong?
It would, but there were two referendums being held at the same time as the general election, both on very contentious issues, euthanasia and the recreational use of cannabis. What if this led to a high turnout, say, 90% of registered voters? Say 10% of votes, all National were dumped; if included they would shift the outcome to 34% National, 8% ACT. Labour would drop to 43%. The Greens would then be Kingmakers and hold the balance of power.
The fix wouldn't be to shaft National. It would be to prevent Greens holding the whip hand.
And what of the technological angle? It has been suggested that the most efficient approach would be to have a program running that manipulated the figures as data is entered. This would happen imperceptibly behind the scenes. Support for this view comes from observing how the election night evolved. Results were thoroughly consistent with little variation. The usual ebb and flow as electorates reported was simply absent.
What do you think?
Important update: Dan Lacey has found out that the anti-malware program the Electoral Commission was running at the time of the election was Windows Defender Antivirus - for real - this is Keystone Cops stuff. Incredible stupidity:
https://gab.com/danlacey/posts/105745049923598189
[updated 6:23pm 20/1/2020 version from that originally published]
[updated 9:00am 21/10/2020 version from that originally published]
[updated 8:32pm 17/02/2021]
October 19, 2020
New Zealand Politics: Getting Over That 5% Threshold
Over recent years I have had representatives of minor New Zealand political parties approach me for advice about how to get over the party vote threshold of 5%. Without winning an electorate, a party without 5% of the party vote cannot enter parliament. At first glance this target doesn't sound insurmountable, to be safe it represents about 150,000 party votes. However, in reality it is a huge hurdle and I'm about to explain why that is.
My advice to these minor parties doesn't get far. I should be better at this, as maybe I could turn it into profit for myself, but I just don't have it in me to string them along. The conversation starts out with these hopefuls asking, what does it take to get that all-important 5%? My answer is brief; got $2 million to kick things off? Then $1 million each year thereafter until the election period starts and your spending is statutorily limited.
There is silence around the room. Err. I never hear from them again.
Okay, so let's back this truck up and load the rig properly. I'm assuming this minor party has no sitting member of parliament able to use the machinery of the institution to help things along. No sweetheart deal with a major party gifting them a seat. And they're not a splinter group of an already established outfit, the way the Greens were when originally part of the Alliance back in the 1990's.
We start out by gaining party members. The minimum is 500 financial members who are eligible to vote. That's not nearly enough. If we take a conservative approach and say that this party needs to be present in at least 60 electorates, with a minimum 50 members in each to cover for those dying, getting ill or busy in their life; we need a total membership of 3,000 at least.
These 3,000 members have to be supported by a paid party infrastructure, on deck 24/7 dealing with problems as they crop up. Their numbers don't have to be large but they'll be on the road a lot and they must be experienced and discreet. Thus, they'll be well paid.
What I've just described is very expensive. Obtaining those members presents a problem in itself. It costs money just to get members who in return may not have the money to donate back to cover set up costs. It's a bit like an initial public offering of shares to the public that falls over, the stock brokers taking a bath on the exercise.
But assuming these members are found and they're able to financially support operations through subscriptions and donations alone; how then is this party going to win those 150,000 votes from that small base of supporters? This is where it gets tricky, and almost every minor party has failed thus far.
The party must have access to media, both in the traditional and in new media such as YouTube, Instagram, Twitter and Facebook. Personally I recommend online newspapers and YouTube channels. A mixture of paid advertising and simple free promotion and mentions. Sounds good so far, right? Wrong, as there is another huge hurdle and it is bio-chemical, yeah, for real.
Advance NZ and New Conservatives both failed to understand this bio-chemical component of the political process. They thought that by engaging using social media, and let's face it they've been everywhere leading up to the 2020 General Election, they'd break through. Nope, didn't happen.
Why not? When in the polling booth voters revert to type. Bear in mind both Labour and National have been around a long time. They're cross-generational. The trauma of past events has been planted in voters genes, so when they vote, they're using instinct. Even though people may attend meetings of those minor parties, agree about everything and promise to vote for them, they do not. Why? Their genetic inheritance kicks in and they vote as their parents did and their grandparents and so on.
Breaking this cycle is where the money goes in bulk. This new party has to be about as popular as Keeping Up with the Kardashians to break through using social media, or just about own a major news outlet using traditional channels.
And then lastly, timing. There has to be an appetite for this new brand. Without it that shelf space will disappear quickly as no-one will be buying. On top of that, the organisation has to be kept running smoothly with everyone on topic, every day. You can't force feed a message the electorate doesn't want and neither can you have the right message but it be disjointed or haphazard in application.
Sometimes I'm asked, of all minor parties, which has been most successful? They imagine I'll talk about the MMP era, but I go back farther and look at Social Credit's 20.7% in 1981 and the New Zealand Party backed by Bob Jones in 1984 which achieved 12.25%. The latter is important because that party effectively split the centre/right vote and ensured an easy victory for Labour. Both are interesting as they were successful through different means. Social Credit simply plugged away for decades, while the NZ Party was formed and became active quite swiftly.
So, anyone out there ready to talk? I know how things run, been around a long time.
October 18, 2020
New Zealand General Election 2020: What Just Happened?
In simple terms, the centre-right of the political spectrum in New Zealand have been slaughtered. That's the polite way of describing the outcome of the 2020 General Election. Labour can govern alone, they gained 49.1% of the party vote and 64 seats in the house.
Before I drill down into some specifics, the way I see Labour achieving their stunning victory was through two significant shifts among voters. The first was the flight of NZ First back to Labour. I'd describe 60% of NZ First as old Labour; retired unionists and blue collar workers. They returned to the fold and NZ First are no longer represented in parliament. Then more significantly, middle class and upper middle class voters ditched the National party and voted Labour for the first time. They voted against their class interests and I believe they'll suffer because of it, but more of how and why below.
Let's examine two formerly safe National seats for a snapshot of what I'm talking about; Ilam in the city of Christchurch and the rural Canterbury seat of Rangitata in the South Island.
Ilam is about as "blue" as it gets. About 20% of houses in Ilam are owned by a family trust and 30% of people there earn more than $100,000 a year. Half the population of Ilam are professionals or managers. They drive cars bought new, not old import secondhand ones. A decent house will cost more than a million dollars. Right, that said, they've now elected a Labour member of parliament, who will enjoy a 2,200 vote majority. The previous incumbent, Gerry Brownlee had held the seat for National its entire existence and last election he had a majority of over 8,000 votes. That's nearly an 11,000 vote turnaround in just three years. If you'd told me this and I didn't know otherwise, I'd say you're dreaming. More like a nightmare actually, that's how bad that result is. And Labour won the all-important party vote in Ilam for the first time, by a stunning 4,800 over National.
Then to the rich farmlands of Rangitata. Rich, yes, they're not struggling farmers from this rich region in Canterbury. The farmers of Rangitata have got millions in equity in their farms and some are known to buy a brand new tractor every year. The electorate traditionally doesn't know what the Labour party is, well it does now as it has a Labour MP with a 3,400 vote majority. Three years ago National had the majority with 6,300 votes. That's another stunning reversal. Now, it could be said that as this electorate incorporates Timaru and Temuka that it does include working class. And I'd agree but its close neighbours, Waitaki and Selwyn which are far more conservative also lost the party vote to Labour.
To those voters who changed sides, do you realise what you've just done? You've effectively given Labour the right to tax you out of existence. Labour will not protect you. Your business, your house, your income, your property portfolio will no longer be off-limits.
Why did these middle class and upper-middle class voters switch and vote Labour? It has to be the Jacinda Ardern factor. As Labour leader she better reflects the NZ electorate. NZ society has changed and traditional Christian values are no longer paramount. These former National voters have been duped in effect, by niceness and messages of inclusivity. Of course, they'll flip back to the right when their bank accounts are impacted, but by then it may too late.
The Greens polled about where they usually do. In the past they've been as high as 11% with leaders' Russel Norman and Metiria Turei, so their 7.6% of the party vote is middle of the road. They did win the seat of Auckland Central and no doubt the Greens will rejoice, but Auckland Central is a bit flaky and so the result, while surprising, was not beyond the realms of possibility.
ACT are a little more to the right than National and they picked up 8% of the party vote, likely largely from National voters trying to shore up the right. That's good for them and at least we'll have a strong alternative centre/right voice in parliament. This was the best ever result for ACT and they have the opportunity now to push on and increase this further. They'll need discipline and hard work.
Where to from here? National need to do a complete rethink. They need to get back to their rural and affluent suburban base and ask important questions. Why? And don't lurch to the right or go toward evangelical Christians because that'd be a disaster, clearly societal changes mean people are quite happy with the looser morals of Labour (and the Greens for that matter). No knee-jerk reactions, the way forward has to be thought through. But something that is immediately needed, and that is a clean-out of the dead wood, top to bottom. Party organisational hierarchies have been around forever, the National party needs a new broom to sweep the place clean.
October 17, 2020
General Election Today
New Zealand is about to find out if it will still exist as a sovereign nation in three years time. Today, it goes to the polls in a General Election that will decide its fate. The choice whether to exist or not is not on the ballot paper, but the choice is still there in reality. I never thought I'd see the day.
October 14, 2020
Baker Tilly Staples Rodway Election Poll
October 12, 2020
Lakers Win Number 17 in 2020
In the year of Kobe Bryant's tragic death, the Los Angeles Lakers of the NBA have won their 17th championship. This places them first in terms of all-time championship wins. First because they've made more finals appearances than the Boston Celtics who held top spot with 17 but have been to the finals fewer times.
If you're a basketball fan it is a fitting tribute to Bryant. But as a Houston Rockets fan, I didn't want to see the Lakers take the all-time greatest spot. Naturally, I want the Rockets to be there.
The star for the Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler looks to be a great talent. So long as he stays free from injury, we're going to be hearing a lot more of this man.
October 10, 2020
National Party Up Against It
Found this interesting blog post from experienced journalist, Karl Du Fresne about the bias New Zealand's National Party faces from the media:
http://karldufresne.blogspot.com/2020/10/its-not-just-labour-party-that-collins.html
October 08, 2020
New Zealand General Election 2020
It's decision time. I've made no secret of it; I think the Labour government are on the way out. Three years ago I called it in their favour. Jacinda Ardern and her Labour party were the only party to receive a swing to it, and it was a massive swing at that.
But things haven't gone well. By any measure Labour have failed. Everything is worse, child poverty, homelessness, house construction, and now they've completely destroyed the NZ economy.
The polls say otherwise, they have Labour about to serve a second three year term. I don't believe it, I think the polls are rigged. The media are bought and paid for. People out there have been kicked in the teeth. Surely they wouldn't go back for more.
I'm predicting a sane and sensible electorate will vote National or ACT. The two will form the next government. If this doesn't happen, it may be all over, NZ may cease to exist. Things are that serious.
October 07, 2020
The Press Leaders Debate 2020
The Press is Christchurch's daily newspaper. Leading up to general elections they host a town hall type debate between the leaders of the two main political parties. Last night, the showdown was between Jacinda Ardern of Labour and Judith Collins from National.
The debate was streamed online, it was not a television broadcast event. The quality of the feed was very poor and so I could not actually score the debate as I'd not heard all of it. But what I could discern was that the town hall had been stacked with Labour supporters. Following the debate, experts all agreed Jacinda Ardern won it. Sounds good right?
Hang on, competitor NZ Herald ran a straw poll and 23,000 respondents had it 52% Collins, 43% Ardern, 5% a draw. Then a day later the number of respondents had doubled but still Judith Collins led with 49% to 45%, 6% calling it a draw.
Do you see what I'm getting at? There is a serious disconnect between what the media want to happen, what the so-called experts want to happen, and what the people are actually thinking.
I'm going to make the call now. I'm calling this a groundswell of support for Judith Collins and National. Back in 2017 I called it for Ardern and Labour. Three years on the electorate has flipped back after a disastrous term in office by Labour. They can't get anything done. I believe the 'experts' are in for a shock come the election result on the evening of Oct.,17th.
October 04, 2020
Donald Trump and the Coronavirus
Donald Trump has caught the nasty virus, COVID-19. What happens if he becomes incapacitated and unable to perform the duties of President? Here's an interesting Bloomberg article on that very subject:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-02/what-happens-if-trump-is-unable-to-govern?
October 02, 2020
Lakers Cruising to Another NBA Championship?
The 2020 NBA finals look as if they may be a procession for LeBron James and his LA Lakers team. They've just crushed the Miami Heat in the first game of the series. The Heat were the Eastern Conference 5th seed and are suffering injuries amongst key players. So, this series may become a snore fest.
If the Lakers take the title they'll leapfrog the Boston Celtics and take first spot on the list of NBA title winners. That's because they've appeared in more finals than Boston. The way it works, the Lakers tend to win about 50% of their finals appearances, while the Celtics tend to win theirs. A lot of Lakers haters do not want to see that top spot held by the team from Los Angeles.