Drowned out by the Coronavirus announcements, New Zealand has just announced a massive infrastructure spend; $54 billion over the next 10 years. This is much needed and will act as a stimulus for the economy post the Coronavirus shutdown.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/120386461/phil-tyford-is-promising-a-54-billion-transport-binge-over-the-next-ten-years-with-a-focus-on-safety
March 19, 2020
March 17, 2020
Recession and the Upside
Due to the coronavirus, oil output, general stupidity on the part of governments regarding their levels of debt, private companies borrowing too much and whatever else; we are now in a worldwide recession. This will likely last the entire year. People are going to lose their jobs, they don't deserve to but companies, especially large companies, will use this event to shed staff. It's going to get worse before it gets better, let's put it that way.
Is there an upside to any of this, apart from the obvious, plenty of bargains for the cashed up investor. The main upside is all of these silly Green initiatives are toast. I'm talking about all those things the taxpayer funds, whether it is kerbside recycling or electric vehicles. Consumers are not going to be spending, they'll have to take the cheapest and most efficient option, out goes so-called Green. Green is not really Green I hope you realise, the whole thing is an exercise in fleecing you, me and everyone else. The only people who win are the crooks coming up with their silly ideas.
In the not too distant future, soon after the airlines get their bailouts (I hate to say it, they likely will get their bailouts), the Green companies will be crying to survive. Don't let them get access to your hard earned dollar.
Is there an upside to any of this, apart from the obvious, plenty of bargains for the cashed up investor. The main upside is all of these silly Green initiatives are toast. I'm talking about all those things the taxpayer funds, whether it is kerbside recycling or electric vehicles. Consumers are not going to be spending, they'll have to take the cheapest and most efficient option, out goes so-called Green. Green is not really Green I hope you realise, the whole thing is an exercise in fleecing you, me and everyone else. The only people who win are the crooks coming up with their silly ideas.
In the not too distant future, soon after the airlines get their bailouts (I hate to say it, they likely will get their bailouts), the Green companies will be crying to survive. Don't let them get access to your hard earned dollar.
March 13, 2020
Coronavirus and New Zealand
So far New Zealand has dodged the bullet. There have been a handful of COVID-19 cases but they seem to have been isolated early and there is no transmission of the virus within the wider community.
That said, calls are being made for NZ to do more, to shut down inbound flights, and for areas to be locked down with proven known cases. Reality check; NZ can't do that as it relies on air freight on passenger services to transport its pharmaceuticals, and without tourism the country would go bust fast. Districts can't be locked down either as NZ has no equivalent force to Italy's Carabinieri, its form of gendarmerie. NZ almost got there, once it had the Ministry of Transport road policing officers, a form of Polizia Di Stato, or civil lower level policing unit. The NZ police were placed over the top of that. But NZ cost-cut and merged the two, creating one large civil force and then underfunded it. NZ cannot now decide to be big bossy boots as it won't work, it is not possible to mobilise the gendarmerie as it completely lacks one. Thus, areas of the country cannot be isolated, the resources do not exist to do it.
And forget the army, those military bases are empty. NZ is so weak it can't pull the skin off a rice pudding.
The answer is to hope and pray. Trust that people will behave and isolate when required to. Wash hands, cover sneezes and coughs etc. That's it, there ain't no more. Good luck Kiwiland.
[ Update@ 14/03/2020 - the NZ government has announced it is requiring all inbound travellers to self-isolate for 14 days. This is voluntary and cannot be rigidly policed (see above as to why not), I expect a bail out of Air New Zealand is on the horizon, it always gets the handouts, hotels and motels will not be so lucky]
[Update @ 09/06/2020 - after several weeks of the most all-encompassing lockdown in the world, NZ has emerged with a broken tourism sector, a national debt level that is at record highs, widespread unemployment, and a closed border. NZ did actually close that border but some flights still occur, possibly to ensure air freight continues. It's a huge mess, but the way NZ's dear leader spins it, she's saved the country from its imminent demise. If you put this in a novel no-one would believe it. Now NZ has no resistance to the virus, and must stay shut away, potentially for years. ]
[ Update@ 14/03/2020 - the NZ government has announced it is requiring all inbound travellers to self-isolate for 14 days. This is voluntary and cannot be rigidly policed (see above as to why not), I expect a bail out of Air New Zealand is on the horizon, it always gets the handouts, hotels and motels will not be so lucky]
[Update @ 09/06/2020 - after several weeks of the most all-encompassing lockdown in the world, NZ has emerged with a broken tourism sector, a national debt level that is at record highs, widespread unemployment, and a closed border. NZ did actually close that border but some flights still occur, possibly to ensure air freight continues. It's a huge mess, but the way NZ's dear leader spins it, she's saved the country from its imminent demise. If you put this in a novel no-one would believe it. Now NZ has no resistance to the virus, and must stay shut away, potentially for years. ]
March 12, 2020
Coronavirus Recession
I'm calling 2020's biggest event, caused by the Coronavirus COVID-19, the Coronavirus Recession. This is a supply-side recession, not a demand-side one, for many that'll be a challenge. For old heads not so much, we remember the oil shocks of the 1970's. The effect will be much the same, you simply won't be able to get some things, learn to live without.
Not every measure will be done for health related reasons. I see the US President's suspending flights from Europe to America as more a political move. Is it punishing European countries for not putting in their fair share of defence spending? Personally, I think this must have something to do with it. After all, Donald Trump exempted the UK, which is in Europe. The UK puts in their full share and they left the EU. The US has sent a message loud and clear right there.
This means airlines will go bust. Airports too, along with hotel chains, restaurants; but not so much fast foods, people will eat at home.
Someone was wondering if this was the biggest single event since the Second World War. No, not yet anyway, the GFC is still ongoing and has had a greater effect, as did the Cold War itself. But this is very serious, no doubt about it. I mean, the NBA season has been suspended. What am I going to do with my free time now?
Not every measure will be done for health related reasons. I see the US President's suspending flights from Europe to America as more a political move. Is it punishing European countries for not putting in their fair share of defence spending? Personally, I think this must have something to do with it. After all, Donald Trump exempted the UK, which is in Europe. The UK puts in their full share and they left the EU. The US has sent a message loud and clear right there.
This means airlines will go bust. Airports too, along with hotel chains, restaurants; but not so much fast foods, people will eat at home.
Someone was wondering if this was the biggest single event since the Second World War. No, not yet anyway, the GFC is still ongoing and has had a greater effect, as did the Cold War itself. But this is very serious, no doubt about it. I mean, the NBA season has been suspended. What am I going to do with my free time now?
March 09, 2020
Oil Price Tumbles
The oil price is tumbling and that's a good thing. Oil feeds into every part of the economy and now the price of goods can come down. Consumers are going to have some hard earned cash in their pockets for a change.
The collapse in oil price is partly due to the Coronavirus and a fall in demand as people stay at home, but also because Russia and Saudi Arabia disagree on oil output and have begun pumping furiously. They can keep that up as far as I'm concerned.
This spells trouble ahead for Wall Street. Many American companies associated with oil have loans maturing soon, and they don't look as good with the price of oil being so low. I explain it like this; if a company is now worth $10 billion and has $6 billion in debt all maturing soon, and the price of oil slips leaving the company now worth $7 billion, it cannot roll over the debt as it doesn't have enough net equity on its balance sheet. It would be able to raise about $4 billion, meaning $2 billion has to be tipped in by shareholders. Across the board that's going to embarrass many investors and some companies will collapse. The message is - don't have too much debt.
The collapse in oil price is partly due to the Coronavirus and a fall in demand as people stay at home, but also because Russia and Saudi Arabia disagree on oil output and have begun pumping furiously. They can keep that up as far as I'm concerned.
This spells trouble ahead for Wall Street. Many American companies associated with oil have loans maturing soon, and they don't look as good with the price of oil being so low. I explain it like this; if a company is now worth $10 billion and has $6 billion in debt all maturing soon, and the price of oil slips leaving the company now worth $7 billion, it cannot roll over the debt as it doesn't have enough net equity on its balance sheet. It would be able to raise about $4 billion, meaning $2 billion has to be tipped in by shareholders. Across the board that's going to embarrass many investors and some companies will collapse. The message is - don't have too much debt.
March 06, 2020
Coronation Street - Issues
I have been following the UK television soap opera, Coronation Street almost from the beginning. It is entertaining but I haven't followed literally every episode, sometimes missing entire years. But I do know the characters and ongoing plots.
These days however, Coronation Street is losing it for me. There are three main issues as I see it. The first is with recycled story lines. They seem to have run out of ideas. An example currently is the Kevin Webster, Abi and evil Ray Crosby story; simply a repeat of the Pat Whelan, Anna Windass story line.
I'm fine with the types that must be in every season. There's the pub owner, usually a woman, the builder bloke, the successful businessperson, the corner shop owner, the community centre person running things and the resident criminal. Of course, the Barlow family must be there too, and there are now places for other businesses and the people around them.
But to stay on the street, all those people have to find reason to stay and this is my second issue. No matter what, everyone gets dragged down, losing money, going to jail, becoming a loser in general. In reality if this was a street that really existed, every time something happened the TV news and every newspaper would announce Britain's worst street is at it again. They'd all be famous or notorious and all be unemployable simply for living in the vicinity. The council would demolish the whole area and put up big box retail outlets.
Which leads me to my final point, flowing on from everyone must be a loser; all strong women must be crushed and become slobbering messes. No doubt a strong man will come to their rescue. Examples of this you demand; OK, Carla once a successful businesswoman, became mentally deranged but was rescued by the alcoholic Peter Barlow. Sally became mayor but went to jail, she ended up being rescued by the illiterate former window cleaner. Yasmeen owns an eaterie but she can't see the abusive nature of Geoff, her new partner as she's dragged into the mire. Who will rescue her, another reformed but very capable man? Hmm? The list is endless with this stuff.
How about stop doing this as Coronation Street has to be shedding viewers. How about someone can be successful and remain so, avert tragedy, suffer a few setbacks but manage their exit adroitly. Where are these people now, they used to be on the street. And what is it with everyone confessing? Everyone confessing their wrong-doing and going to jail. How about stop doing that too, otherwise call the police station Confessions R Us.
These days however, Coronation Street is losing it for me. There are three main issues as I see it. The first is with recycled story lines. They seem to have run out of ideas. An example currently is the Kevin Webster, Abi and evil Ray Crosby story; simply a repeat of the Pat Whelan, Anna Windass story line.
I'm fine with the types that must be in every season. There's the pub owner, usually a woman, the builder bloke, the successful businessperson, the corner shop owner, the community centre person running things and the resident criminal. Of course, the Barlow family must be there too, and there are now places for other businesses and the people around them.
But to stay on the street, all those people have to find reason to stay and this is my second issue. No matter what, everyone gets dragged down, losing money, going to jail, becoming a loser in general. In reality if this was a street that really existed, every time something happened the TV news and every newspaper would announce Britain's worst street is at it again. They'd all be famous or notorious and all be unemployable simply for living in the vicinity. The council would demolish the whole area and put up big box retail outlets.
Which leads me to my final point, flowing on from everyone must be a loser; all strong women must be crushed and become slobbering messes. No doubt a strong man will come to their rescue. Examples of this you demand; OK, Carla once a successful businesswoman, became mentally deranged but was rescued by the alcoholic Peter Barlow. Sally became mayor but went to jail, she ended up being rescued by the illiterate former window cleaner. Yasmeen owns an eaterie but she can't see the abusive nature of Geoff, her new partner as she's dragged into the mire. Who will rescue her, another reformed but very capable man? Hmm? The list is endless with this stuff.
How about stop doing this as Coronation Street has to be shedding viewers. How about someone can be successful and remain so, avert tragedy, suffer a few setbacks but manage their exit adroitly. Where are these people now, they used to be on the street. And what is it with everyone confessing? Everyone confessing their wrong-doing and going to jail. How about stop doing that too, otherwise call the police station Confessions R Us.
March 05, 2020
Coronavirus and the Recession
Recession, that's what the world is now facing and we need to take this seriously. Ignore advice from financial planners and the like, they have a vested interest in saying it is all temporary, the outlook is good, just invest in their particular schemes. Oh right, invest in their proposals. Actually how about not taking that advice.
Now there will be opportunities, bargain buys. If governments have any sense they will allow this to happen, with capitalism you have the freedom to go bust. Back during the GFC, governments rescued certain industries and companies, effectively denying investors those bargains. What that did was prop up ineffective and failing businesses that were poorly managed. They kept going and they're still around and that's bad. The advantage of capitalism - it's by no means a perfect system but it does do some things - is it does weed out the weak.
Then after weeding out the weak, we need to have a serious think about the way forward and away from relying so heavily on countries like China. What this virus exposes is the stupidity of relying on key goods coming from far away. The whole economy is held to ransom because of a shutdown in that far away country. That can't be allowed to continue.
The USA will be fine, they'll address the matter. Their tariffs on goods from China began the process of addressing this vulnerability, but now it will gather pace backed by the resolve to continue. In countries such as Australia and New Zealand, it is highly likely they'll continue to lie to themselves and be less independent, akin to seaworthy vessels adrift on the high seas without a rudder.
Now there will be opportunities, bargain buys. If governments have any sense they will allow this to happen, with capitalism you have the freedom to go bust. Back during the GFC, governments rescued certain industries and companies, effectively denying investors those bargains. What that did was prop up ineffective and failing businesses that were poorly managed. They kept going and they're still around and that's bad. The advantage of capitalism - it's by no means a perfect system but it does do some things - is it does weed out the weak.
Then after weeding out the weak, we need to have a serious think about the way forward and away from relying so heavily on countries like China. What this virus exposes is the stupidity of relying on key goods coming from far away. The whole economy is held to ransom because of a shutdown in that far away country. That can't be allowed to continue.
The USA will be fine, they'll address the matter. Their tariffs on goods from China began the process of addressing this vulnerability, but now it will gather pace backed by the resolve to continue. In countries such as Australia and New Zealand, it is highly likely they'll continue to lie to themselves and be less independent, akin to seaworthy vessels adrift on the high seas without a rudder.
March 03, 2020
LanzaTech
I recently saw a television profile of LanzaTech, the bio fuel company based in Chicago, Illinois. Made for New Zealand TV, much was made of the origins of the company in NZ. I've heard of the company before, I knew they'd moved to Chicago, dumping NZ staff in the process; though the programme maintained much of the Kiwi based staff were relocated to the USA. So far, so good, or at least I thought so until I checked out LanzaTech's website later.
The Lanzatech website rarely mentions NZ. The founder, Dr Sean Simpson is revealed as an Englishman who has lived in a number of countries, but not NZ evidently as his company profile fails to mention it. No mention is made of the company's origins in NZ, and of the NZ taxpayer support they received. Very strange all this, as the reporter for the television piece showed an ebullient Simpson supposedly proud of his Kiwi connection, having children born there and having lived the longest part of his life in the country. You'd think this would at least be mentioned on their website somewhere, but if it was, I couldn't find it.
This looks to be another kick in the teeth for little old New Zealand. Upon further research I find NZ's Heavy Engineering Research Association (HERA) have the same idea:
https://www.hera.org.nz/lanzatech-fish-got-away/
HERA are kinder to LanzaTech though, they think a lack of support from the government led them to leave. A John Key disaster that one then. But I'm not so kind, I think this is a classic example of startups exploiting creativity and invention. The obvious answer is to do the exercise again, creating a competitor to LanzaTech; much of the technology still resides in Kiwi brains, do it again, much the way the British did with nuclear weapons. In the latter example, the British gave their tech to the Manhattan Project, only for the Americans to refuse to give it back, so the British simply did it all again. That's how Britain gets to be a nuclear power (not many people know that).
The Lanzatech website rarely mentions NZ. The founder, Dr Sean Simpson is revealed as an Englishman who has lived in a number of countries, but not NZ evidently as his company profile fails to mention it. No mention is made of the company's origins in NZ, and of the NZ taxpayer support they received. Very strange all this, as the reporter for the television piece showed an ebullient Simpson supposedly proud of his Kiwi connection, having children born there and having lived the longest part of his life in the country. You'd think this would at least be mentioned on their website somewhere, but if it was, I couldn't find it.
This looks to be another kick in the teeth for little old New Zealand. Upon further research I find NZ's Heavy Engineering Research Association (HERA) have the same idea:
https://www.hera.org.nz/lanzatech-fish-got-away/
HERA are kinder to LanzaTech though, they think a lack of support from the government led them to leave. A John Key disaster that one then. But I'm not so kind, I think this is a classic example of startups exploiting creativity and invention. The obvious answer is to do the exercise again, creating a competitor to LanzaTech; much of the technology still resides in Kiwi brains, do it again, much the way the British did with nuclear weapons. In the latter example, the British gave their tech to the Manhattan Project, only for the Americans to refuse to give it back, so the British simply did it all again. That's how Britain gets to be a nuclear power (not many people know that).
March 02, 2020
February 28, 2020
Jacinda Ardern to Scott Morrison
About time a leader in New Zealand called out Australia on their despicable practise of exporting its criminals to NZ.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119916746/jacinda-arderns-confrontation-of-scomo-is-a-turning-point-in-transtasman-relations
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119916746/jacinda-arderns-confrontation-of-scomo-is-a-turning-point-in-transtasman-relations
February 27, 2020
Olympics 2020
Spare a thought for those athletes preparing for the Olympics in Tokyo. At this stage it looks like the Olympics may need to be postponed due to COVID-19, or perhaps a decentralised model introduced. I hope it doesn't come to that, but it is a watch and wait at this stage. Previously, the Olympics has only been called off due to war.
February 24, 2020
COVID-19 could be Election Decider
New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is allowing students from China into the country to start their studies for 2020. This is a big mistake in my opinion, as the virus is just beginning to spread uncontrollably. It looks as if the NZ government has buckled under pressure from China. Letting in so many students all at once is almost a guarantee someone will bring the virus with them.
With a general election due in a few months; if NZ gets the virus as a result of the PM's decision, that'll be it, she'll be the former prime minister of New Zealand, of that I have no doubt.
With a general election due in a few months; if NZ gets the virus as a result of the PM's decision, that'll be it, she'll be the former prime minister of New Zealand, of that I have no doubt.
February 23, 2020
Harry and Meghan - Who Do They Think They Are?
The latest statement from the Sussex Royals can be found here: https://sussexroyal.com/spring-2020-transition/
This has the hand of Meghan Markle all over it, I don't believe for a minute that Harry would agree to put out such a statement. It sounds slightly argumentative or adversarial. If you want to get yourself offside with the Queen, then this is the way to go about it.
Where will this end? Who knows, but it can't end well. This isn't Hollywood, the Queen is above the law, and we're talking sovereignty here, not who gets to play the starring role in a movie. This is certainly going to heat up, watch this space.
This has the hand of Meghan Markle all over it, I don't believe for a minute that Harry would agree to put out such a statement. It sounds slightly argumentative or adversarial. If you want to get yourself offside with the Queen, then this is the way to go about it.
Where will this end? Who knows, but it can't end well. This isn't Hollywood, the Queen is above the law, and we're talking sovereignty here, not who gets to play the starring role in a movie. This is certainly going to heat up, watch this space.
February 16, 2020
Harry and Meghan - The Odds
Here we go, my odds quoted on how long it will take for Harry Mountbatten-Windsor (known or styled as the Duke of Sussex) to break up with the actress known as Meghan Markle (styled these days as the Duchess of Sussex):
The above returns are based on $1.00 dollar going in, (eg) if the couple stay together more than 4 years but less than 5, the return on $1 would be $100. I haven't quoted a figure on the 3-4 year range as I figure if they get that far from the date of this post then they'll likely make the 4 year mark. And yes the clock starts ticking from the date of this post. See how right I am. And my readers will have noticed I've got this wrong before.
- Less than 5 years but more than 4: $100.00
- Less than 3 years but more than 2: $ 5.00
- Less than 2 years but more than 1: $ 1.10
- Less than 1 year $ 1.50
The above returns are based on $1.00 dollar going in, (eg) if the couple stay together more than 4 years but less than 5, the return on $1 would be $100. I haven't quoted a figure on the 3-4 year range as I figure if they get that far from the date of this post then they'll likely make the 4 year mark. And yes the clock starts ticking from the date of this post. See how right I am. And my readers will have noticed I've got this wrong before.
February 14, 2020
Coronavirus COVID-19
A surprising number of people around town are saying this new virus is the result of a mistake or leak at a Chinese biological weapons lab. It kind of resonates, strange that this thing just popped up. What do you think?
February 12, 2020
Complete Failure of NZ's Electoral System
Back in 1996 New Zealand ditched its traditional first-past-the-post electoral system, and put in its place mixed-member proportional (MMP). There can be no doubt; in a year when NZ has its eighth MMP general election, the system has been proven an outstanding failure.
How did this happen? Why did this happen? The answer to that can be found in the way MMP is structured. MMP is based on the system they have in Germany. It was used there to prevent one party coming to power. You may recall Germany's troubled past, and the rise there of a genocidal regime which resulted in the holocaust and WWII. But NZ doesn't have that kind of background, it didn't need a system to prevent what happened in Germany happening in Aotearoa.
It gets worse, given NZ's small size, the type of electoral and regional diversity Germany has, doesn't exist in NZ. Oh, I hear you say, yes it does. Err, I reply, no it doesn't, one region doesn't go to war with another and NZ doesn't have principalities. You get the idea.
So NZ embraces MMP and things...don't change that much. NZ was assured the advantage of MMP was it would deliver majority governments (where the government commands 50% or more of the popular vote). It didn't happen, what happened is NZ still received minority governments, except many of its representatives had never, could never win an electorate seat. That's the reality. And politicians who lose their electorate seat, come back in off the party list, they get to keep their jobs. It's like the cat came back, it wouldn't stay away.
Not only that, but voters never get what they voted for. The election is more like a beauty contest, you vote for whoever takes your fancy and trust them to deliver something in coalition negotiations. And what you do receive is likely to be nothing.
Then in 2017 things turned worse. The coalition between Labour and NZ First actually had fewer votes than the Opposition. Incredible but true, the coalition is propped up by the Greens, who get a pay-off in the form of ministerial positions, but avoid accountability by actually being in the government with their feet under the Cabinet table (putting a bob each way in effect).
Now the latest polling has the Greens on the precipice, just 20,000 votes away from failing to make the 5% threshold as they cannot win an electorate seat. NZ First are polling well under the 5% and they may fail to get a seat (they also have none at present). NZ has in a very short space of time, found itself right back where it was with first-past-the-post, in a close head-to-head contest, Labour vs National.
What may result, and is quite likely in fact, is one of the two will govern NZ alone, no need for a coalition agreement, and after receiving far fewer than 50% support. Where to after that? Over time I predict a splintering of political support after this period of consolidation.
To understand what I'm banging on about, consider the supermarket aisle and the soft drink selection (soda or pop for those in North America). In the early days selection may have been simple and purely price driven. That's where NZ is right now with MMP. Then as tastes change and competition heats up, new brands emerge to compete for shelf space. Now when you head down that aisle the consumer is barraged with choices. This is what I believe will happen under MMP in NZ after the price or value driven phase.
That final stage presents real dangers as we're not really talking about consumer choice. We're talking democracy, freedom Westminster-style and it could be lost. Here's how this could happen, admittedly this is more speculative, there are far too many permutations to be accurate, but read on:
1. Phase one; multiple brands with at least a seat or 5% support are far more valuable. It makes sense to segment the market, by region and political belief; town vs country, christian vs atheist, environmentalists vs industrialists - ripping the country apart - you get the idea.
2. Phase two; fifth columnists are more valuable than consensus builders. Wreckers trump builders. Reverse mergers can occur whereby party faithful from one party join the enemy and wreck the other party from within. (There is no law in NZ saying an individual cannot belong to more than one party, although most parties have their own rules preventing it. It's hard to stop spies, and in time will become impossible).
3. Phase three; secret coalition deals end up with the elite running everything. Voters will not know if a secret deal exists or not. Voters will choose a brand to their taste, but later find that party is loyal to another party altogether. Imagine buying cherry Coke only to find it turned into classic Coke. This is a distinct possibility in this MMP environment.
It's all very undemocratic and I predict it will spell the end of NZ. It will pull itself apart, critical infrastructure will be ignored in order to chase the latest fad, defence will be ignored as it offers no immediate pay-off. In the end NZ will be annexed by Australia as it can't afford to have such a weak southern neighbour.
And how soon will this happen. Originally I thought this would be in the lifetime of my grandchildren. But things are happening so fast now, I think it may be in my lifetime. Not that long then.
How did this happen? Why did this happen? The answer to that can be found in the way MMP is structured. MMP is based on the system they have in Germany. It was used there to prevent one party coming to power. You may recall Germany's troubled past, and the rise there of a genocidal regime which resulted in the holocaust and WWII. But NZ doesn't have that kind of background, it didn't need a system to prevent what happened in Germany happening in Aotearoa.
It gets worse, given NZ's small size, the type of electoral and regional diversity Germany has, doesn't exist in NZ. Oh, I hear you say, yes it does. Err, I reply, no it doesn't, one region doesn't go to war with another and NZ doesn't have principalities. You get the idea.
So NZ embraces MMP and things...don't change that much. NZ was assured the advantage of MMP was it would deliver majority governments (where the government commands 50% or more of the popular vote). It didn't happen, what happened is NZ still received minority governments, except many of its representatives had never, could never win an electorate seat. That's the reality. And politicians who lose their electorate seat, come back in off the party list, they get to keep their jobs. It's like the cat came back, it wouldn't stay away.
Not only that, but voters never get what they voted for. The election is more like a beauty contest, you vote for whoever takes your fancy and trust them to deliver something in coalition negotiations. And what you do receive is likely to be nothing.
Then in 2017 things turned worse. The coalition between Labour and NZ First actually had fewer votes than the Opposition. Incredible but true, the coalition is propped up by the Greens, who get a pay-off in the form of ministerial positions, but avoid accountability by actually being in the government with their feet under the Cabinet table (putting a bob each way in effect).
Now the latest polling has the Greens on the precipice, just 20,000 votes away from failing to make the 5% threshold as they cannot win an electorate seat. NZ First are polling well under the 5% and they may fail to get a seat (they also have none at present). NZ has in a very short space of time, found itself right back where it was with first-past-the-post, in a close head-to-head contest, Labour vs National.
What may result, and is quite likely in fact, is one of the two will govern NZ alone, no need for a coalition agreement, and after receiving far fewer than 50% support. Where to after that? Over time I predict a splintering of political support after this period of consolidation.
To understand what I'm banging on about, consider the supermarket aisle and the soft drink selection (soda or pop for those in North America). In the early days selection may have been simple and purely price driven. That's where NZ is right now with MMP. Then as tastes change and competition heats up, new brands emerge to compete for shelf space. Now when you head down that aisle the consumer is barraged with choices. This is what I believe will happen under MMP in NZ after the price or value driven phase.
That final stage presents real dangers as we're not really talking about consumer choice. We're talking democracy, freedom Westminster-style and it could be lost. Here's how this could happen, admittedly this is more speculative, there are far too many permutations to be accurate, but read on:
1. Phase one; multiple brands with at least a seat or 5% support are far more valuable. It makes sense to segment the market, by region and political belief; town vs country, christian vs atheist, environmentalists vs industrialists - ripping the country apart - you get the idea.
2. Phase two; fifth columnists are more valuable than consensus builders. Wreckers trump builders. Reverse mergers can occur whereby party faithful from one party join the enemy and wreck the other party from within. (There is no law in NZ saying an individual cannot belong to more than one party, although most parties have their own rules preventing it. It's hard to stop spies, and in time will become impossible).
3. Phase three; secret coalition deals end up with the elite running everything. Voters will not know if a secret deal exists or not. Voters will choose a brand to their taste, but later find that party is loyal to another party altogether. Imagine buying cherry Coke only to find it turned into classic Coke. This is a distinct possibility in this MMP environment.
It's all very undemocratic and I predict it will spell the end of NZ. It will pull itself apart, critical infrastructure will be ignored in order to chase the latest fad, defence will be ignored as it offers no immediate pay-off. In the end NZ will be annexed by Australia as it can't afford to have such a weak southern neighbour.
And how soon will this happen. Originally I thought this would be in the lifetime of my grandchildren. But things are happening so fast now, I think it may be in my lifetime. Not that long then.
Low-scoring NBA Game
Finally, we have seen a regular season NBA game where the result seems to reflect a genuine basketball score. Charlotte Hornets beat the Detroit Pistons 87-76. I'm assuming that defense took precedence, as it should. These type of games are rare these days, with shooters, and the referees that protect them, holding sway.
February 05, 2020
More Gloom
Adding to my previous post, New Zealand is now impacted in the education sector. Up to a half of all international full fees paying students in the country come from China. For now that has all stopped with many students stranded, having paid for courses and accommodation but unable to travel. I think we can safely say that NZ will be experiencing a recession very soon, as well as the rest of the world.
February 04, 2020
Doom
I've been a prophet of doom for some time now, mainly because the world economy has just been bumping along the bottom. Now the real slowdown has started, kicked off by this new virus from China, called the Coronavirus.
In NZ this has had the immediate effect of shutting down tourism, but also log exports. That's because there's no-one in China at work ready to handle the shipments. Expect this situation to worsen across a whole range of goods.
Maybe people will wake up and stop relying on China for everything. If we had our own industry, such as milling our own timber, then this kind of event would have a minimal effect.
In NZ this has had the immediate effect of shutting down tourism, but also log exports. That's because there's no-one in China at work ready to handle the shipments. Expect this situation to worsen across a whole range of goods.
Maybe people will wake up and stop relying on China for everything. If we had our own industry, such as milling our own timber, then this kind of event would have a minimal effect.
February 02, 2020
Australia Bushfire Sun
The sun setting tonight in Christchurch, NZ is tinged with the colour orange, the result of the smoke from the Australia bushfires. I've never seen this before and thought to take a pic:
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| Sun Setting in Christchurch NZ, coloured orange by smoke from Australia bushfires |