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March 12, 2020

Coronavirus Recession

I'm calling 2020's biggest event, caused by the Coronavirus COVID-19, the Coronavirus Recession. This is a supply-side recession, not a demand-side one, for many that'll be a challenge. For old heads not so much, we remember the oil shocks of the 1970's. The effect will be much the same, you simply won't be able to get some things, learn to live without.

Not every measure will be done for health related reasons. I see the US President's suspending flights from Europe to America as more a political move. Is it punishing European countries for not putting in their fair share of defence spending? Personally, I think this must have something to do with it. After all, Donald Trump exempted the UK, which is in Europe. The UK puts in their full share and they left the EU. The US has sent a message loud and clear right there.

This means airlines will go bust. Airports too, along with hotel chains, restaurants; but not so much fast foods, people will eat at home.

Someone was wondering if this was the biggest single event since the Second World War. No, not yet anyway, the GFC is still ongoing and has had a greater effect, as did the Cold War itself. But this is very serious, no doubt about it. I mean, the NBA season has been suspended. What am I going to do with my free time now?

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