Back in 1996 New Zealand ditched its traditional first-past-the-post electoral system, and put in its place mixed-member proportional (MMP). There can be no doubt; in a year when NZ has its eighth MMP general election, the system has been proven an outstanding failure.
How did this happen? Why did this happen? The answer to that can be found in the way MMP is structured. MMP is based on the system they have in Germany. It was used there to prevent one party coming to power. You may recall Germany's troubled past, and the rise there of a genocidal regime which resulted in the holocaust and WWII. But NZ doesn't have that kind of background, it didn't need a system to prevent what happened in Germany happening in Aotearoa.
It gets worse, given NZ's small size, the type of electoral and regional diversity Germany has, doesn't exist in NZ. Oh, I hear you say, yes it does. Err, I reply, no it doesn't, one region doesn't go to war with another and NZ doesn't have principalities. You get the idea.
So NZ embraces MMP and things...don't change that much. NZ was assured the advantage of MMP was it would deliver majority governments (where the government commands 50% or more of the popular vote). It didn't happen, what happened is NZ still received minority governments, except many of its representatives had never, could never win an electorate seat. That's the reality. And politicians who lose their electorate seat, come back in off the party list, they get to keep their jobs. It's like the cat came back, it wouldn't stay away.
Not only that, but voters never get what they voted for. The election is more like a beauty contest, you vote for whoever takes your fancy and trust them to deliver something in coalition negotiations. And what you do receive is likely to be nothing.
Then in 2017 things turned worse. The coalition between Labour and NZ First actually had fewer votes than the Opposition. Incredible but true, the coalition is propped up by the Greens, who get a pay-off in the form of ministerial positions, but avoid accountability by actually being in the government with their feet under the Cabinet table (putting a bob each way in effect).
Now the latest polling has the Greens on the precipice, just 20,000 votes away from failing to make the 5% threshold as they cannot win an electorate seat. NZ First are polling well under the 5% and they may fail to get a seat (they also have none at present). NZ has in a very short space of time, found itself right back where it was with first-past-the-post, in a close head-to-head contest, Labour vs National.
What may result, and is quite likely in fact, is one of the two will govern NZ alone, no need for a coalition agreement, and after receiving far fewer than 50% support. Where to after that? Over time I predict a splintering of political support after this period of consolidation.
To understand what I'm banging on about, consider the supermarket aisle and the soft drink selection (soda or pop for those in North America). In the early days selection may have been simple and purely price driven. That's where NZ is right now with MMP. Then as tastes change and competition heats up, new brands emerge to compete for shelf space. Now when you head down that aisle the consumer is barraged with choices. This is what I believe will happen under MMP in NZ after the price or value driven phase.
That final stage presents real dangers as we're not really talking about consumer choice. We're talking democracy, freedom Westminster-style and it could be lost. Here's how this could happen, admittedly this is more speculative, there are far too many permutations to be accurate, but read on:
1. Phase one; multiple brands with at least a seat or 5% support are far more valuable. It makes sense to segment the market, by region and political belief; town vs country, christian vs atheist, environmentalists vs industrialists - ripping the country apart - you get the idea.
2. Phase two; fifth columnists are more valuable than consensus builders. Wreckers trump builders. Reverse mergers can occur whereby party faithful from one party join the enemy and wreck the other party from within. (There is no law in NZ saying an individual cannot belong to more than one party, although most parties have their own rules preventing it. It's hard to stop spies, and in time will become impossible).
3. Phase three; secret coalition deals end up with the elite running everything. Voters will not know if a secret deal exists or not. Voters will choose a brand to their taste, but later find that party is loyal to another party altogether. Imagine buying cherry Coke only to find it turned into classic Coke. This is a distinct possibility in this MMP environment.
It's all very undemocratic and I predict it will spell the end of NZ. It will pull itself apart, critical infrastructure will be ignored in order to chase the latest fad, defence will be ignored as it offers no immediate pay-off. In the end NZ will be annexed by Australia as it can't afford to have such a weak southern neighbour.
And how soon will this happen. Originally I thought this would be in the lifetime of my grandchildren. But things are happening so fast now, I think it may be in my lifetime. Not that long then.
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