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March 05, 2020

Coronavirus and the Recession

Recession, that's what the world is now facing and we need to take this seriously. Ignore advice from financial planners and the like, they have a vested interest in saying it is all temporary, the outlook is good, just invest in their particular schemes. Oh right, invest in their proposals. Actually how about not taking that advice.

Now there will be opportunities, bargain buys. If governments have any sense they will allow this to happen, with capitalism you have the freedom to go bust. Back during the GFC, governments rescued certain industries and companies, effectively denying investors those bargains. What that did was prop up ineffective and failing businesses that were poorly managed. They kept going and they're still around and that's bad. The advantage of capitalism - it's by no means a perfect system but it does do some things - is it does weed out the weak.

Then after weeding out the weak, we need to have a serious think about the way forward and away from relying so heavily on countries like China. What this virus exposes is the stupidity of relying on key goods coming from far away. The whole economy is held to ransom because of a shutdown in that far away country. That can't be allowed to continue.

The USA will be fine, they'll address the matter. Their tariffs on goods from China began the process of addressing this vulnerability, but now it will gather pace backed by the resolve to continue. In countries such as Australia and New Zealand, it is highly likely they'll continue to lie to themselves and be less independent, akin to seaworthy vessels adrift on the high seas without a rudder.

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