March 13, 2020

Coronavirus and New Zealand

So far New Zealand has dodged the bullet. There have been a handful of COVID-19 cases but they seem to have been isolated early and there is no transmission of the virus within the wider community.

That said, calls are being made for NZ to do more, to shut down inbound flights, and for areas to be locked down with proven known cases. Reality check; NZ can't do that as it relies on air freight on passenger services to transport its pharmaceuticals, and without tourism the country would go bust fast. Districts can't be locked down either as NZ has no equivalent force to Italy's Carabinieri, its form of gendarmerie. NZ almost got there, once it had the Ministry of Transport road policing officers, a form of Polizia Di Stato, or civil lower level policing unit. The NZ police were placed over the top of that. But NZ cost-cut and merged the two, creating one large civil force and then underfunded it. NZ cannot now decide to be big bossy boots as it won't work, it is not possible to mobilise the gendarmerie as it completely lacks one. Thus, areas of the country cannot be isolated, the resources do not exist to do it.

And forget the army, those military bases are empty. NZ is so weak it can't pull the skin off a rice pudding. 

The answer is to hope and pray. Trust that people will behave and isolate when required to. Wash hands, cover sneezes and coughs etc. That's it, there ain't no more. Good luck Kiwiland.

[ Update@ 14/03/2020 - the NZ government has announced it is requiring all inbound travellers to self-isolate for 14 days. This is voluntary and cannot be rigidly policed (see above as to why not), I expect a bail out of Air New Zealand is on the horizon, it always gets the handouts, hotels and motels will not be so lucky]

[Update @ 09/06/2020 - after several weeks of the most all-encompassing lockdown in the world, NZ has emerged with a broken tourism sector, a national debt level that is at record highs, widespread unemployment, and a closed border. NZ did actually close that border but some flights still occur, possibly to ensure air freight continues. It's a huge mess, but the way NZ's dear leader spins it, she's saved the country from its imminent demise. If you put this in a novel no-one would believe it. Now NZ has no resistance to the virus, and must stay shut away, potentially for years. ]

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