Sensible or a scam? I've received an email from someone wanting to know, does it make sense to invest in a shipping container, managed offshore by some company with a dubious reputation.
The short answer is, it makes no sense at all. But not for the reason you may be thinking, that it's all a scam and whoever is selling you the idea is going to run off with your money (but they might, you have to be careful). Container transportation has been around for a while and these containers do have numbers and they can be insured. Large companies do own fleets of them and they do manage containers as well. If you buy one or many, this container will disappear into the fleet and become just another number, being hired out to house cargo travelling the world.
But what happens to that container when no longer needed or the management company goes bust? At worst you'll lose the container all together, but the best that may happen is you'll have to pay for it to be delivered to you and then what will you do with it? It gets worse if you own several.
There are many angles, claiming depreciation on the container, whether the container is leased long term to a shipping company, what condition it is maintained in, how it is handled and what kind of container exactly; high cube, flat rack, 20 foot, 40 foot, open sided, open topped, all these have a demand and risk factor attached and differing returns.
Why do this to yourself when you can simply invest in a container company? For the purpose of illustration, consider Royal Wolf who are listed on the Australian Securities Exchange:
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=8109809
Currently they sit on a dividend yield of 3.70%, with a market capitalisation of AUS$135 million. They're active selling and hiring out containers and with a P/E of 18.33 are not expensive by any means. I'd suggest that investing in this company would be safer and provide returns that are better than directly owning the container itself. Think capital gains. But heh, I'm not pumping this stock, just pointing out there are safer ways to go that would be more financially rewarding.
May 25, 2017
May 24, 2017
Rocket Lab Launch
New Zealand is about to enter the space age with the launch of Rocket Lab's vehicle into orbit:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92884290/rocket-lab-test-launch-postponed-a-second-time
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92884290/rocket-lab-test-launch-postponed-a-second-time
May 18, 2017
Ethical Fund or Not?
What is an ethical fund and does anyone really care? An ethical fund is a pool of money taken from many individual investors, the fund then invests in so-called ethical companies. According to this model, tobacco is out but alcohol may be okay because it can be consumed safely if done so within limits.
Then weapons manufacturers are off limits too, because they make products that can kill. Also off-limits is the gaming industry. It's a vice don't you know.
But hang on, does such a fund do any good? What about all those liquor and off-licence vendors being robbed and killed, shouldn't alcohol be on the banned list? For some funds it is, but not others. Strange I'd say, alcohol should be off the list if the fund manager is being consistent.
Tobacco has become the evil of the modern age. But if we ban tobacco and its cultivation, what happens to African countries relying on income from that one crop? Malawi is an example.
And weapons, does anyone really think for one second that because you don't invest in companies that manufacture weapons, that your neighbour who hates you, wants to kill you or take your property won't use those same weapons you eschewed against you? You're not paranoid if the gun is pointing at your head.
Gaming, it's a vice, but what about people who eat meat? They kill animals and consume them, is that any more excusable considering that to live healthy and fruitful lives (see what I did there?) we don't need any meat? And what about pest eradication businesses, don't all living things have a right to live peacefully (channelling Over The Hedge and weapons of mass destruction illegal in every state except Texas).
The point I'm making is that any business model that invents a moral compass based on poor logic, will ultimately fail. It must. I say, invest in good, legal businesses, that are boring, old-fashioned, dominant in their market, deliver quality not too expensively; and if they make nuclear weapons then it's all good, nuclear deterrent works fine by me. Get off your high horse.
According to the Ken Horlor Law of Investment Choices (patent pending), if everyone was right then they'd all be rich but they aren't so they must mostly be wrong most of the time. And given they're nearly always wrong, not doing what they do must be a good idea. So according to this logic, tobacco, hard liquor, nuclear weapons, handguns, casinos and brothels must be the way to go. I'm just pointing out you won't find many bankrupt casino owning nuclear weapons manufacturers. But you'll find a lot of investors tapped out by the latest whizz-bang fund management scheme.
Then weapons manufacturers are off limits too, because they make products that can kill. Also off-limits is the gaming industry. It's a vice don't you know.
But hang on, does such a fund do any good? What about all those liquor and off-licence vendors being robbed and killed, shouldn't alcohol be on the banned list? For some funds it is, but not others. Strange I'd say, alcohol should be off the list if the fund manager is being consistent.
Tobacco has become the evil of the modern age. But if we ban tobacco and its cultivation, what happens to African countries relying on income from that one crop? Malawi is an example.
And weapons, does anyone really think for one second that because you don't invest in companies that manufacture weapons, that your neighbour who hates you, wants to kill you or take your property won't use those same weapons you eschewed against you? You're not paranoid if the gun is pointing at your head.
Gaming, it's a vice, but what about people who eat meat? They kill animals and consume them, is that any more excusable considering that to live healthy and fruitful lives (see what I did there?) we don't need any meat? And what about pest eradication businesses, don't all living things have a right to live peacefully (channelling Over The Hedge and weapons of mass destruction illegal in every state except Texas).
The point I'm making is that any business model that invents a moral compass based on poor logic, will ultimately fail. It must. I say, invest in good, legal businesses, that are boring, old-fashioned, dominant in their market, deliver quality not too expensively; and if they make nuclear weapons then it's all good, nuclear deterrent works fine by me. Get off your high horse.
According to the Ken Horlor Law of Investment Choices (patent pending), if everyone was right then they'd all be rich but they aren't so they must mostly be wrong most of the time. And given they're nearly always wrong, not doing what they do must be a good idea. So according to this logic, tobacco, hard liquor, nuclear weapons, handguns, casinos and brothels must be the way to go. I'm just pointing out you won't find many bankrupt casino owning nuclear weapons manufacturers. But you'll find a lot of investors tapped out by the latest whizz-bang fund management scheme.
May 15, 2017
Predictions
Here are my three main predictions for what will happen technologically within the next 40 or so years. Of course country borders will change, most likely in Africa, but also Europe and North America. If there is a new Dark Age then all bets are off, the Dark Ages were very real and we must guard our knowledge well, Knowledge can be destroyed and often is. Okay, so here goes:
1. We'll be able to fly anywhere very quickly. That is rapid passenger transport. How this will be done is by planes flying very high, out into space before descending to their destination. I've seen the International Space Station racing across the sky and it's an incredible sight, this speed of travel will become commonplace.
2. Communications and entertainment will advance so we can actually experience the movie or have our relatives in the room visiting without them actually being there for real. This could be an experience delivered chemically if not using telecommunications or some such (chemical rather than electronic engineering).
3. Freight will be transported rapidly using ground effects shipping. These will be very large ships that hover rather than sit in the water. Being fast, they'll displace air freight and most container cargo vessels.
What do you think?
In sport, the All Blacks will become so dominant they'll be banned and continue on as a Rugby version of the Harlem Globetrotters (just joking).
1. We'll be able to fly anywhere very quickly. That is rapid passenger transport. How this will be done is by planes flying very high, out into space before descending to their destination. I've seen the International Space Station racing across the sky and it's an incredible sight, this speed of travel will become commonplace.
2. Communications and entertainment will advance so we can actually experience the movie or have our relatives in the room visiting without them actually being there for real. This could be an experience delivered chemically if not using telecommunications or some such (chemical rather than electronic engineering).
3. Freight will be transported rapidly using ground effects shipping. These will be very large ships that hover rather than sit in the water. Being fast, they'll displace air freight and most container cargo vessels.
What do you think?
In sport, the All Blacks will become so dominant they'll be banned and continue on as a Rugby version of the Harlem Globetrotters (just joking).
May 08, 2017
Fix or Float?
It's been mentioned again, should New Zealand's exchange rate be fixed or float as it does now? Comparison has been made with Singapore. There is no doubt that Singapore has done an excellent job, Lee Kuan Yew is one of the great men of the modern age. But whether New Zealand should copy Singapore is open to debate. The NZ Treasury discuss this here: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2011/11-01/10.htm
Those with a long memory will remember NZ had the crawling peg model, which sounds similar to Singapore's basket of currencies.
But what about fixing? For me the advantage of fixing the exchange rate is it provides certainty. Businesses can plan effectively. The problem NZ has, and this has been the case since it floated its currency, is the exchange rate is volatile and the Kiwi dollar is often grossly overvalued. A consistently overvalued currency hurts exporters and leads to cheap imports which hurt local manufacturers producing for the domestic market. Fixing the exchange rate and linking its value to infrastructure spend, or possibly a balance of gold and silver prices, infrastructure and the five major currencies (US, Euro, Yen, Sterling and Swiss Franc) provides certainty, industry can forecast.
Doing a rough back of the envelope calculation; the NZ Dollar should be worth about US$0.62, but today it's quoted at US$0.69; more than 10% overvalued in other words. That's my point, this pattern of overvaluing seriously undermines economic potential, stifling local production and exporters.
Doing a rough back of the envelope calculation; the NZ Dollar should be worth about US$0.62, but today it's quoted at US$0.69; more than 10% overvalued in other words. That's my point, this pattern of overvaluing seriously undermines economic potential, stifling local production and exporters.
May 04, 2017
Australia Kicks New Zealand Again
It's time to say goodbye to Australia. The latest outrage is they've stopped Kiwis at Australian universities from receiving domestic fees, the same fees Australians face.
Many don't know that New Zealanders in Australia generally earn much more than Australians. They're the go-getters, while Australians are shiftless. Think about this; Kiwis in Australia pay more tax, a lot more, but receive few if any services in return.
My answer is it's about time NZ pointed out to Australia that they're surrounded, their only ally is NZ. Why would they constantly blame Kiwis for every ill in their stagnant country?
The answer to this is very basic and may even shock. Winston Peters, leader of NZ First, has it wrong. He says that because NZ allowed a back door into Australia for decades (this is where people gained NZ citizenship solely for the purpose of getting into Australia), that Australia is paying the favour back. No, that's not it. What has happened is that Australians have got used to Kiwis beating them up all the time. In Australia, the boss is often a Kiwi. And then on the sports field, the All Blacks always beat Australia. Well not always but of the last 20 games played, NZ has won 15, Australia 4 with 2 drawn encounters. It must suck to live in a country where draws are your closest rival. And it is likely no coincidence that in the same year as the rug was pulled on these fees, that it is also a year when no Australia team has beaten a NZ rugby franchise is Super Rugby. If any Australian team does win a game against a NZ team the Australians will likely hold a street parade, that's how bad they are.
The NZ Prime Minister, the weak and ineffective Simon English, of course he will kowtow. He's such a horrible little man.
Many don't know that New Zealanders in Australia generally earn much more than Australians. They're the go-getters, while Australians are shiftless. Think about this; Kiwis in Australia pay more tax, a lot more, but receive few if any services in return.
My answer is it's about time NZ pointed out to Australia that they're surrounded, their only ally is NZ. Why would they constantly blame Kiwis for every ill in their stagnant country?
The answer to this is very basic and may even shock. Winston Peters, leader of NZ First, has it wrong. He says that because NZ allowed a back door into Australia for decades (this is where people gained NZ citizenship solely for the purpose of getting into Australia), that Australia is paying the favour back. No, that's not it. What has happened is that Australians have got used to Kiwis beating them up all the time. In Australia, the boss is often a Kiwi. And then on the sports field, the All Blacks always beat Australia. Well not always but of the last 20 games played, NZ has won 15, Australia 4 with 2 drawn encounters. It must suck to live in a country where draws are your closest rival. And it is likely no coincidence that in the same year as the rug was pulled on these fees, that it is also a year when no Australia team has beaten a NZ rugby franchise is Super Rugby. If any Australian team does win a game against a NZ team the Australians will likely hold a street parade, that's how bad they are.
The NZ Prime Minister, the weak and ineffective Simon English, of course he will kowtow. He's such a horrible little man.
May 03, 2017
New Zealand Environment and MMP
New Zealand has a major flaw with its economy and that is it has an anaemic secondary manufacturing sector. NZ does make some things, but not enough of its national income derives from secondary industry. This has a major impact on the environment. To maintain its position as a fully developed OECD economy NZ finds itself having to do two things in the absence of manufacturing; it must flog the land to exhaustion and pollute the rivers.
The intensification of agriculture has got to the breaking point. You will find commentators saying the answer is the service sector and Kiwis doing things smarter. Yes, fine, but NZ is small and isolated, it's hard to get noticed. Its all very well trying to be the next Microsoft or Google but how realistic is that? Not very realistic is my reply, and NZ does not have really big global scale service sectors and I'm thinking banking and insurance. NZ relies on overseas funds from banking and overseas owned insurance companies.
For little NZ, the answer is to extract mineral ores and transform them into metals. Then take those metals and make products from them. Then sell those products worldwide. And if feasible, make those same products in other countries with the design aspect handled in Kiwiland. You may think of Toyota when I say this but I'm thinking Scania. Scania are Swedish heavy trucks and made in factories around the world. But Sweden only has a population of 9 and a bit million. Less than twice the size of NZ. And they have Volvo construction equipment to boot, and on and on. NZ should try to emulate their example.
Will this happen with the current political set-up? Never. The German style of Mixed-member Proportional (MMP) voting introduced in the mid 1990's ensures NZ is stuck with the way it is. The country has professional naysayers in the Greens, refusing to lead or take any responsibility, hogging positions that could be occupied by more able parliamentarians. And contrary to what NZ was promised, the country has rarely had majority governments, instead being led by minority governments hanging on by pleasing the myopic middle ground in order to survive in office. NZ has ended up with the worst of all worlds.
And it will get worse. The day could come where MMP delivers tyranny. One example is where a party receives, say, 60% of the vote but all others fail to get to the 5% threshold. This means all Parliamentary seats would go to the one party making the threshold (in theory but with some seats being won without many party votes, there would be one hell of an overhang in that Parliament). Or how about the ultimate minority party, say one with 35% but the rest unable to garner much more than 10% each, with a large number of votes wasted on parties not making the 5% threshold; meaning the government would rule a country where the overwhelming majority had not voted for it. Incredible, it could actually happen. Who were the fools that foisted this system on the NZ people.
The intensification of agriculture has got to the breaking point. You will find commentators saying the answer is the service sector and Kiwis doing things smarter. Yes, fine, but NZ is small and isolated, it's hard to get noticed. Its all very well trying to be the next Microsoft or Google but how realistic is that? Not very realistic is my reply, and NZ does not have really big global scale service sectors and I'm thinking banking and insurance. NZ relies on overseas funds from banking and overseas owned insurance companies.
For little NZ, the answer is to extract mineral ores and transform them into metals. Then take those metals and make products from them. Then sell those products worldwide. And if feasible, make those same products in other countries with the design aspect handled in Kiwiland. You may think of Toyota when I say this but I'm thinking Scania. Scania are Swedish heavy trucks and made in factories around the world. But Sweden only has a population of 9 and a bit million. Less than twice the size of NZ. And they have Volvo construction equipment to boot, and on and on. NZ should try to emulate their example.
Will this happen with the current political set-up? Never. The German style of Mixed-member Proportional (MMP) voting introduced in the mid 1990's ensures NZ is stuck with the way it is. The country has professional naysayers in the Greens, refusing to lead or take any responsibility, hogging positions that could be occupied by more able parliamentarians. And contrary to what NZ was promised, the country has rarely had majority governments, instead being led by minority governments hanging on by pleasing the myopic middle ground in order to survive in office. NZ has ended up with the worst of all worlds.
And it will get worse. The day could come where MMP delivers tyranny. One example is where a party receives, say, 60% of the vote but all others fail to get to the 5% threshold. This means all Parliamentary seats would go to the one party making the threshold (in theory but with some seats being won without many party votes, there would be one hell of an overhang in that Parliament). Or how about the ultimate minority party, say one with 35% but the rest unable to garner much more than 10% each, with a large number of votes wasted on parties not making the 5% threshold; meaning the government would rule a country where the overwhelming majority had not voted for it. Incredible, it could actually happen. Who were the fools that foisted this system on the NZ people.
May 01, 2017
John Key and Pike River
Now we know why John Key suddenly resigned. The Pike River mine disaster victims families have 30 hours of video footage from inside the access tunnel to the mine. This footage was kept from the inquiry and the New Zealand public until now. The National Party government have been lying to the NZ public all this time. The mine is safe to enter, so what has the government got to hide?
April 30, 2017
War in the Pacific
I've got friends living in Yokohama, Japan and they tell me the US Navy base at Yokosuka is the busiest they've ever seen it. Also extremely busy are the Kanagawa area US Naval Air Facilities. Planes are flying in 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Locals are complaining of the noise. Bear in mind all the various crises over the decades, but they say the bases have always just been ticking along despite that. Not now, now they're really ramping up. Based on this evidence I'd say the US is preparing for war and not just talking tough. Who will that war be with? North Korea is my suggestion and anyone else who takes their side.
April 28, 2017
Portfolio Performance
It's been a year since I posted my portfolio on this blog. As a whole the portfolio is up 54%, with Oshkosh up 107%. Two other favourites of mine, Trinity Industries and Caterpillar are also up more than 70%. If you want more picks like these then I suggest my readers subscribe to the Stock Tip Hotline.
Check out the portfolio here http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
Stock Tip Hotline explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/stock-tip-hotline_18.html
We are investing now as well, so if you've got a good business to sell, let me know. Even if it doesn't meet our strict requirements, we may offer the business on our blog to our very wide readership.
Investing now explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/investment.html
Check out the portfolio here http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
Stock Tip Hotline explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/stock-tip-hotline_18.html
We are investing now as well, so if you've got a good business to sell, let me know. Even if it doesn't meet our strict requirements, we may offer the business on our blog to our very wide readership.
Investing now explained here http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/investment.html
April 25, 2017
Have The French Gone Mad
It looks like the French have gone mad, or have they? They're going to have a new President and for the first time in a long while not from one of the old established parties. Will they go for a right-wing woman in Marine Le Pen or the centrist Emmanuel Macron? Who knows, but the future of the EU is at stake as Le Pen wants a Frexit. That's a French Brexit.
April 20, 2017
Update Market Report UK
Just a note pointing out Breedon are on a bit of slide, now at a P/E ratio of 26.52, down from the 31 they were on when I last mentioned them. Breedon has been a standout performer in the aggregates sector, the value of their shares having almost doubled in value in the last three years. Given their performance and market domimance with room still to grow, Breedon now represent a "buy".
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=6216709
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=6216709
April 19, 2017
Prime Ministers Make Moves
As if acting in concert the Prime Ministers of three Commonwealth countries have made moves designed to ensure re-election.
The most significant is the UK's Theresa May calling of a snap General Election. A brave move and we'll soon see if it pays off. No doubt May is hoping for an affirmation of her Brexit negotiations and 'hard' exit. I think she'll get it. Whether UKIP can build will be also of interest. The Tories are after their share of the vote.
A side bar is which way Scotland will go. Will they vote SNP or Labour? The debate over Scottish independence I'm ambivalent about, have they not checked out New Zealand? Technically part of Australia, it goes its own way, with its own currency, but on trade and immigration has a flexible relationship with Aussie. There is no reason why Scotland couldn't do a similar thing with England and the rest of the UK. The world does not come to an end, trust me, NZ has been doing its own thing for over 170 years.
Talking of downunder, the PM's of Australia and NZ must have been talking on the phone, as they've both introduced immigration reforms at about the same time. They're both thinking of the electorate. NZ PM Simon English has been even more cynical in also raising pay rates for women working in the care industry. It's an election year bribe, if the National Party wins, they'll take the pay increase away with tax hikes next year, maybe putting GST up.
The most significant is the UK's Theresa May calling of a snap General Election. A brave move and we'll soon see if it pays off. No doubt May is hoping for an affirmation of her Brexit negotiations and 'hard' exit. I think she'll get it. Whether UKIP can build will be also of interest. The Tories are after their share of the vote.
A side bar is which way Scotland will go. Will they vote SNP or Labour? The debate over Scottish independence I'm ambivalent about, have they not checked out New Zealand? Technically part of Australia, it goes its own way, with its own currency, but on trade and immigration has a flexible relationship with Aussie. There is no reason why Scotland couldn't do a similar thing with England and the rest of the UK. The world does not come to an end, trust me, NZ has been doing its own thing for over 170 years.
Talking of downunder, the PM's of Australia and NZ must have been talking on the phone, as they've both introduced immigration reforms at about the same time. They're both thinking of the electorate. NZ PM Simon English has been even more cynical in also raising pay rates for women working in the care industry. It's an election year bribe, if the National Party wins, they'll take the pay increase away with tax hikes next year, maybe putting GST up.
April 14, 2017
Greens Naysaying Again
Why do young people vote Green? They've got to be the most negative political party I've seen. Their latest opposition is against the water export scheme from South Westland in the South Island of New Zealand. First they opposed non-renewable, now they oppose renewable as well, when will this end, when homo sapiens are back living in caves?
I wrote about the scheme here: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/01/innovative-water-export-scheme.html
I notice the campaign to stop this project are completely misrepresenting where the water is to be taken from and what impact it will have on the environment. The water is not being taken from a national park, and it will have absolutely no effect on the environment.
The impact on global climate change will be positive and schemes like this should get widespread support from environmentalists. One of the problems of climate change is the lack of cloud formation and thus precipitation from the areas where it is most needed. As an example, the Sahara desert is spreading south because of this, but the problem is global. Greening areas impacted by a lack of water holds back the tide. Water from South Westland is literally a drop in the bucket for that region but a vital resource for those that need the water.
Greens, a message, stop being silly and get behind something that helps the environment and which is renewable.
I wrote about the scheme here: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/01/innovative-water-export-scheme.html
I notice the campaign to stop this project are completely misrepresenting where the water is to be taken from and what impact it will have on the environment. The water is not being taken from a national park, and it will have absolutely no effect on the environment.
The impact on global climate change will be positive and schemes like this should get widespread support from environmentalists. One of the problems of climate change is the lack of cloud formation and thus precipitation from the areas where it is most needed. As an example, the Sahara desert is spreading south because of this, but the problem is global. Greening areas impacted by a lack of water holds back the tide. Water from South Westland is literally a drop in the bucket for that region but a vital resource for those that need the water.
Greens, a message, stop being silly and get behind something that helps the environment and which is renewable.
April 13, 2017
Pyne Gould Corporation: Free Advice
I am a shareholder in PGC (NZX PGC) and have been so for quite a long time. It is my worst stock and I'm not afraid to say it, I don't always get things right.
What are PGC up to now? They're into distressed assets these days and currently own land which they're developing and selling for house construction. When I invested they were mainly a lender and owned Marac Finance (now part of Heartland Bank).
Here's my advice: get out of property development. There are many good reasons for not becoming a land developer but the most important can be summed up in two words - cash flow. That's right, cash flow is king and developers regularly have little of it. Hence the saying, always an investor never a developer be.
PGC have got cash, don't plough it back into real estate that may never sell. Invest that cash in good solid businesses instead. Will they listen? Unlikely, but heh, we all live in hope.
What are PGC up to now? They're into distressed assets these days and currently own land which they're developing and selling for house construction. When I invested they were mainly a lender and owned Marac Finance (now part of Heartland Bank).
Here's my advice: get out of property development. There are many good reasons for not becoming a land developer but the most important can be summed up in two words - cash flow. That's right, cash flow is king and developers regularly have little of it. Hence the saying, always an investor never a developer be.
PGC have got cash, don't plough it back into real estate that may never sell. Invest that cash in good solid businesses instead. Will they listen? Unlikely, but heh, we all live in hope.
April 12, 2017
NZ School Funding: Predictive Risk Modelling
New Zealand society is about to change forever, it will mean an end to the 'give everyone a fair go' Kiwi concept and a new darker future where Kiwis will be ranked according to their familial surroundings and social status. What I'm talking about is Predictive Risk Modelling and linking that to funding of NZ schools. >>Link explaining the issue here<<
Why is this a bad idea? It stigmatises. Consider a child with no criminal record, doing okay at school, well behaved, gets along with others. But she comes from a broken home, father is in jail and a brother in jail as well. Mother was raped in the past, sister the victim of sex abuse. That child who is doing okay will be tagged a risk. Extra funding is made available to any school that takes her. The child carries a code that attracts funding and extra attention. But why? She is not a victim apart from being in a difficult family, and has committed no crime.
The incompetent Prime Minister of NZ, Simon English is behind this. He hates the poor and wants to see all disadvantaged persecuted. NZ is on a very slippery slope, one where some will be tagged for life, while others receive a free pass. It is a very dangerous precedent.
Stop obsessing over whether NZ has surpluses and instead work toward fully funding all schools in NZ, so parents don't have to put their hands in their pockets. That'd solve the issue. Educate, educate and then educate some more. Stop with this find someone to blame nonsense and rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Why is this a bad idea? It stigmatises. Consider a child with no criminal record, doing okay at school, well behaved, gets along with others. But she comes from a broken home, father is in jail and a brother in jail as well. Mother was raped in the past, sister the victim of sex abuse. That child who is doing okay will be tagged a risk. Extra funding is made available to any school that takes her. The child carries a code that attracts funding and extra attention. But why? She is not a victim apart from being in a difficult family, and has committed no crime.
The incompetent Prime Minister of NZ, Simon English is behind this. He hates the poor and wants to see all disadvantaged persecuted. NZ is on a very slippery slope, one where some will be tagged for life, while others receive a free pass. It is a very dangerous precedent.
Stop obsessing over whether NZ has surpluses and instead work toward fully funding all schools in NZ, so parents don't have to put their hands in their pockets. That'd solve the issue. Educate, educate and then educate some more. Stop with this find someone to blame nonsense and rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
April 07, 2017
Trump: The Turning Point
US President Donald Trump, according to news reports, is at an all-time low approval rating for US Presidents. But this could change if he manages to achieve a satisfactory resolution to the three items currently on the agenda.
1. Syria and their War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
We've all seen the horrific images on the television, civilian communities being gassed. Children amongst the victims. Syria has lost the plot and stepped over the line.
The USA will likely intervene in some way, and the whole world should support them if they do. Done right, decisively, with weight behind the punch, President Trump will surely be saluted.
2. Trade and China
China has the playing field tilted toward it. Everyone else is running uphill. They write the rules, interpret those rules, and then cry foul when anyone questions them. This approach has seen China accumulate massive wealth. But it has to stop, it must, or the US and the rest of the western industrialised world will be pushing handcarts. President Trump seems to grasp this and his approach with the Chinese President will be interesting to observe. Is President Trump the great negotiator? We are about to find out.
3. North Korea
Then we have the unstable and, quite frankly, loony North Korean state. It appears they only listen to China, and China entered the Korean war to support them just as they were on the brink of losing. So there is history as they say. How President Trump juggles this and trade with China will be crucial. He must be strong with China on trade but also diplomatic in getting China to rein in North Korea.
The stakes for President Trump are high, get at least two of the three sorted in his first term and he'll soar in the ratings and be re-elected. If he falls over and can't seem to deal with things, he may not even get to the end of his first term. Interesting times as they say.
1. Syria and their War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
We've all seen the horrific images on the television, civilian communities being gassed. Children amongst the victims. Syria has lost the plot and stepped over the line.
The USA will likely intervene in some way, and the whole world should support them if they do. Done right, decisively, with weight behind the punch, President Trump will surely be saluted.
2. Trade and China
China has the playing field tilted toward it. Everyone else is running uphill. They write the rules, interpret those rules, and then cry foul when anyone questions them. This approach has seen China accumulate massive wealth. But it has to stop, it must, or the US and the rest of the western industrialised world will be pushing handcarts. President Trump seems to grasp this and his approach with the Chinese President will be interesting to observe. Is President Trump the great negotiator? We are about to find out.
3. North Korea
Then we have the unstable and, quite frankly, loony North Korean state. It appears they only listen to China, and China entered the Korean war to support them just as they were on the brink of losing. So there is history as they say. How President Trump juggles this and trade with China will be crucial. He must be strong with China on trade but also diplomatic in getting China to rein in North Korea.
The stakes for President Trump are high, get at least two of the three sorted in his first term and he'll soar in the ratings and be re-elected. If he falls over and can't seem to deal with things, he may not even get to the end of his first term. Interesting times as they say.
April 05, 2017
Lotto Changes
The popular Lotto game in New Zealand is changing and not before time. Lotto has become unpopular and the changes look to revive the game. Will the changes have any effect? My prediction is it will have a short-term effect, but long-term the game is a dud and here's why:
Gamers, rightly or wrongly, have come to see the game as being rigged. Incredible I know, how could a game like that be rigged? But they still think that and that's a major problem. Let's look at why gamers think the game is a put up job. Kiwis travel overseas a lot and have established contacts in the UK. There has been many controversies in Britain surrounding their Camelot lottery and word filters back.
Then there are the very few instances of statistical cuteness or anomaly. What I'm talking about is there are few draws where there are many winners of division 1 off a cute number selection. For instance, if the six winning numbers in division 1 are 1,2,3,4,5,6 then the top prize would be shared by tens of thousands of people. But very few cute number sequences drop out of the barrel. People see one or two winners of division 1 each week, then invariably off the Powerball jackpot, one winner after a cosy time period and reasonable multiplying effect.
Note, I'm not saying Lotto is rigged, just that as the game has developed it has taken on the appearance of being rigged, The two are not the same thing but they look one and the same.
How could the game be rigged? The only way to rig the game is to change the weight of the balls. Thus, balls should be weighed individually when going in and when coming out (this covers different chemical composition or gas filling the inside void of the ball). They could have several sets of balls and a random stranger used to choose each ball going in, say, individually select one ball from any set; 40 ball Lotto game, 40 sets of balls, one ball from each set. You get the idea. No chance of choosing the favoured balls with that type of arrangement. What do the Lotto people do in reality? I'm not sure, but I don't think they weigh each ball individually in and out.
The changes as announced (see the changes here) do not address the level of mistrust gamers now feel. Putting the price up and making a few changes won't rebuild that trust.
Gamers, rightly or wrongly, have come to see the game as being rigged. Incredible I know, how could a game like that be rigged? But they still think that and that's a major problem. Let's look at why gamers think the game is a put up job. Kiwis travel overseas a lot and have established contacts in the UK. There has been many controversies in Britain surrounding their Camelot lottery and word filters back.
Then there are the very few instances of statistical cuteness or anomaly. What I'm talking about is there are few draws where there are many winners of division 1 off a cute number selection. For instance, if the six winning numbers in division 1 are 1,2,3,4,5,6 then the top prize would be shared by tens of thousands of people. But very few cute number sequences drop out of the barrel. People see one or two winners of division 1 each week, then invariably off the Powerball jackpot, one winner after a cosy time period and reasonable multiplying effect.
Note, I'm not saying Lotto is rigged, just that as the game has developed it has taken on the appearance of being rigged, The two are not the same thing but they look one and the same.
How could the game be rigged? The only way to rig the game is to change the weight of the balls. Thus, balls should be weighed individually when going in and when coming out (this covers different chemical composition or gas filling the inside void of the ball). They could have several sets of balls and a random stranger used to choose each ball going in, say, individually select one ball from any set; 40 ball Lotto game, 40 sets of balls, one ball from each set. You get the idea. No chance of choosing the favoured balls with that type of arrangement. What do the Lotto people do in reality? I'm not sure, but I don't think they weigh each ball individually in and out.
The changes as announced (see the changes here) do not address the level of mistrust gamers now feel. Putting the price up and making a few changes won't rebuild that trust.
April 04, 2017
Lexi Thompson and that Golf Ball
Lexi Thompson was penalised at the recent ANA Inspiration golf tournament. She moved her ball and for that she received a 2-shot penalty followed by a further 2-shots for signing an incorrect scorecard.
We are hearing sympathy from fellow players and a call to change the rules. I don't agree, the rules should stay exactly the way they are. I say this carefully, and here's why: golfers score themselves. So with that luxury and in order to balance things up, anyone can call foul on a shot. That's fair. Golfers honour the code.
Think about the the possible repercussions of a rule change. If only a select few can challenge, then self-scoring may lead to collusion between groups of players. Not every player is closely scrutinised, the game relies on their honesty. Consider situations where you're doing a round together with a friend on the tour, he's about to miss the cut, while you may challenge for the lead. On the back nine you may agree to cheat, so you can gain on the leaders and your mate may miss the cut. See?
If you're going to restrict who may challenge, then you need all scoring in the professional game to be refereed and scored, with only the referee able to say what the score was; then challenges may be restricted to rival players and other referees. That's like tennis, where they have an umpire, and linesmen, overall tournament referee and challenges from players.
So long as the golfers score themselves, then I say no way to professional golfers being scrutinised less. There is too much at stake for that to happen.
We are hearing sympathy from fellow players and a call to change the rules. I don't agree, the rules should stay exactly the way they are. I say this carefully, and here's why: golfers score themselves. So with that luxury and in order to balance things up, anyone can call foul on a shot. That's fair. Golfers honour the code.
Think about the the possible repercussions of a rule change. If only a select few can challenge, then self-scoring may lead to collusion between groups of players. Not every player is closely scrutinised, the game relies on their honesty. Consider situations where you're doing a round together with a friend on the tour, he's about to miss the cut, while you may challenge for the lead. On the back nine you may agree to cheat, so you can gain on the leaders and your mate may miss the cut. See?
If you're going to restrict who may challenge, then you need all scoring in the professional game to be refereed and scored, with only the referee able to say what the score was; then challenges may be restricted to rival players and other referees. That's like tennis, where they have an umpire, and linesmen, overall tournament referee and challenges from players.
So long as the golfers score themselves, then I say no way to professional golfers being scrutinised less. There is too much at stake for that to happen.
April 03, 2017
Most read posts from the last month
Why would anyone be interested in reading about which of my posts gets read the most? Actually quite a few as a blog post on that very subject makes my top 10 list from last month. Here are the most read posts in order from March, a strange mixture I have to say:
1. Did Prince Charles and Camilla Have a Child (this is an oldie but a goodie, regularly top since I first posted on the topic.)
2. The Retirement Income Problem (oldies and their money, a real vote grabber, politicians take not)
3. Labour Panic
4. Innovative Payroll Service and it's a Charity
5. Most Read Posts - Last Month
6. Controversy at the Academy Awards
7. Adrian Orr is worth it
8. John Key
9. Dance Moms
10. Was Super Bowl 51 Rigged?
My page on The Brothers BBC TV series from the seventies is also a perennial favorite, even though I don't link to it any more. Here it is in case you're interested, they really need to come out with another drama like this: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/the-brothers-bbc-tv.html
1. Did Prince Charles and Camilla Have a Child (this is an oldie but a goodie, regularly top since I first posted on the topic.)
2. The Retirement Income Problem (oldies and their money, a real vote grabber, politicians take not)
3. Labour Panic
4. Innovative Payroll Service and it's a Charity
5. Most Read Posts - Last Month
6. Controversy at the Academy Awards
7. Adrian Orr is worth it
8. John Key
9. Dance Moms
10. Was Super Bowl 51 Rigged?
My page on The Brothers BBC TV series from the seventies is also a perennial favorite, even though I don't link to it any more. Here it is in case you're interested, they really need to come out with another drama like this: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/p/the-brothers-bbc-tv.html