Seachange in UK Politics

In the latest poll in the UK conducted by Find Out Now, new party Reform UK lead Labour by a whopping 12 points. Here are the published poll numbers - called the headline:

Reform 32%

Labour 20% 

Conservative 16%

Liberal Democrats 12%

Green 9%

Scottish National Party 2%

Plaid Cymru 1%

Others 7%

However, these headline figures 'squeeze' out Don't Know. If you put them back in, this is the result:

Reform UK 22%

Labour 11%

Conservative 10% 

Liberal Democrats 7%

Green 6%

Scottish National Party 1%

Plaid Cymru 1%

Other 7%

Don't Know 35%  

The way I read this; the main political parties are looking at being wiped out by Reform, with other parties also becoming stronger. If this trend continues, I would not be surprised if the Labour government take drastic action. I'll leave you to figure out what that action might be, just use your imagination.

Here's the excel spreadsheet link: https://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2025/08/6th-August-Find-Out-Now-VI.xlsx   

Reform UK Leading

Contrary to what many thought would happen, new political party, Reform UK has now become the most popular party in the UK. This comes off the back of major gains in recent local elections. Personally, I thought they'd implode due to infighting. But while there has been a lot of that, those polled seem to be ignoring it. Voters have had enough, they want a complete change.

The Conservatives are now in serious trouble, with the most recent poll having them in fourth place, behind the LibDems. Reform UK has now become a sort of de facto opposition, even though the Conservatives officially occupy that position.

Some more extreme pundits are saying a revolution is brewing.

Latest Political Poll New Zealand

I don't trust the latest public opinion polls as published by TV3's Newshub. That's not because they have National too low on 29%, but because their results show Advance NZ not registering at all. That I don't believe, right now Advance NZ are everywhere and they're packing halls. It is simply not credible to think they're not registering. And I'm going to stick my neck out and say I don't believe National are so low either. If true, it would be a first as voters always return to National when times are tough and that's right now, with New Zealand's biggest economic crisis in its entire history.

What's going on? The media are rigging things, that's what. 

New Zealand: Clash of Polls

The latest political opinion polls show a completely contrasting picture. TVNZ's 1 News has National ahead of Labour, while TV3's Newshub have National plummeting to new lows. What's going on?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12238789 

Something the two media organisations did agree on; the minor parties are looking shaky. They're both on or just over the 5% threshold, which is good news for both Labour and National, but especially National.

The real story I think is being rarely mentioned, and that is that voters are browsing around looking for someone to support, hence the erosion of support for the minor parties in parliament, and the emergence of new political movements such as the new Christian party and a new Green party called Sustainable New Zealand.