An interesting podcast interview of Peter Hitchens on the current COVID-19 crisis:
March 31, 2020
March 30, 2020
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle: Los Angeles
Well, the travelling pair of Royals have arrived in Los Angeles. This is where the two intend making their home. Who'd a thunk, eh.
Anyone seen them in LA? Anywhere? Where are they living with their son Archie? Poor old Harry, in tinsel town and not a friend in sight. No business, just him and his missus. This is not going to end well folks, not well at all.
Anyone seen them in LA? Anywhere? Where are they living with their son Archie? Poor old Harry, in tinsel town and not a friend in sight. No business, just him and his missus. This is not going to end well folks, not well at all.
March 28, 2020
Coronapocalypse
This is an interesting read on how the numbers and possible ways of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic are being bungled at best, and used maliciously at worst:
https://www.therant365.com/post/the-coronapocalypse?fbclid=IwAR2uHCNnTEQQIlweZfgTRJnozTkaFMjrpJwhJ2zgVyiPtu31NdZap4viDs8
https://www.therant365.com/post/the-coronapocalypse?fbclid=IwAR2uHCNnTEQQIlweZfgTRJnozTkaFMjrpJwhJ2zgVyiPtu31NdZap4viDs8
March 27, 2020
COVID-19 and the Third World War
I've been a student of history all my life and I've been a teacher of history as well. Does anyone else see the parallel with what's happening now and the run-up to the Second World War? I certainly do, we have the War on Terror, which is a form of colonial expansion rather like The Great Game between the British and Russian empires. Heck, this war involves Afghanistan just as it did during The Great Game of the nineteenth century.
Then we have the EU pushing its weight around, rather like Italy's unification under Garibaldi and Germany under Bismarck, then later Spain under Franco. Europe has emerged as a super state since the 1990's. Then we have 9/11, which is WWI, and then the GFC which equates to the stock market crash of 1929. This has been followed by the Great Stagnation involving quantitative easing, another version of the Great Depression, except this time it is worse as we now have a global pandemic to conclude things, which is a bit out of sequence, it has come at the end of the Great Stagnation instead of the end of 9/11. For those not aware, the Spanish flu came at the end of First World War not at the outbreak of the Second.
Time scales are a bit off, but what's a decade or two when talking evolutionary scale - hmm? If this is obvious to me, it must be obvious to others, so who is manipulating events? The Third World War cannot be far away.
Then we have the EU pushing its weight around, rather like Italy's unification under Garibaldi and Germany under Bismarck, then later Spain under Franco. Europe has emerged as a super state since the 1990's. Then we have 9/11, which is WWI, and then the GFC which equates to the stock market crash of 1929. This has been followed by the Great Stagnation involving quantitative easing, another version of the Great Depression, except this time it is worse as we now have a global pandemic to conclude things, which is a bit out of sequence, it has come at the end of the Great Stagnation instead of the end of 9/11. For those not aware, the Spanish flu came at the end of First World War not at the outbreak of the Second.
Time scales are a bit off, but what's a decade or two when talking evolutionary scale - hmm? If this is obvious to me, it must be obvious to others, so who is manipulating events? The Third World War cannot be far away.
March 26, 2020
Useful COVID-19 Graph
People wanting to know where different countries fit into the scheme of things have had a difficult time looking for a useful graph. Well now we have it thanks to Dr Don Elder (he's an engineer and professional company director). Check it out...the thick black line is New Zealand
March 24, 2020
Coronavirus Conspiracy Theory
I know this guy who has that annoying habit of seeing things clearer than others, he is able to predict what will happen in the future. One example was when Jeffrey Epstein was arrested and locked up in 2019, he predicted he'd be dead by the end of the year. Boy, was he right.
Now one should assume that being in jail is relatively safe, especially when on suicide watch. What happened? He killed himself of course. My friend thinks this is a nonsense and believes this was staged, largely because Epstein funds have been moved into the bank he owned in the Caribbean. A bank that has never operated.
OK, that's fine, it doesn't mean he escaped though, someone with power of attorney could be doing the transactions, and in so doing removing assets from any potential civil claims. But did Epstein kill himself? Probably not, and that's where my friend nailed it, predicting Epstein's demise so accurately.
Now he's got another idea. That COVID-19 was an attack by the US on China. The tariffs weren't working, so they took the virus to China from the US Army's biological studies at Fort Detrick and planted it during the World Military Games in October 2019.
Since the outbreak the US has been on the front foot pointing the stick at China; their food habits, cleanliness, you name it. The US media has been particularly busy. Maybe too busy.
Iran and Italy are collateral damage. It got out of hand and now the whole thing has blown up in America's face. That's because China's authoritarian regime was able to get on top of the epidemic quickly, and they're first up best dressed. When the world recovers, they will be the one ready to buy everything. China may end up owning the world.
Will the west be ready to accept that? My friend thinks not, and that's why they'll go to war with China. Either that or wrap themselves in knots justifying economic sanctions. If calls for war or sanctions grow in the US and become accepted, my friend believes this will prove the virus originated in the United States. What do you think?
[Update @ 25/03/2020: It has been pointed out that the virus could not be a biological weapon as it has been proven it was not produced in a laboratory. I accept the second part, that it was not manufactured. However, simply saying a virus was not produced in a lab does not mean a virus could not be used for malicious purposes.
Trump: his saying that America must emerge soon from its harsh restrictions is a statement of the way it is really. America must emerge soon or it will wake up and find itself surpassed by China. If we look at the sheer volume of rhetoric emanating from the USA, all directed at China, and measure by that standard alone without looking at the science, it certainly does look as though this theory has legs. That is, the person doing all the finger pointing is often the perpetrator.]
Now one should assume that being in jail is relatively safe, especially when on suicide watch. What happened? He killed himself of course. My friend thinks this is a nonsense and believes this was staged, largely because Epstein funds have been moved into the bank he owned in the Caribbean. A bank that has never operated.
OK, that's fine, it doesn't mean he escaped though, someone with power of attorney could be doing the transactions, and in so doing removing assets from any potential civil claims. But did Epstein kill himself? Probably not, and that's where my friend nailed it, predicting Epstein's demise so accurately.
Now he's got another idea. That COVID-19 was an attack by the US on China. The tariffs weren't working, so they took the virus to China from the US Army's biological studies at Fort Detrick and planted it during the World Military Games in October 2019.
Since the outbreak the US has been on the front foot pointing the stick at China; their food habits, cleanliness, you name it. The US media has been particularly busy. Maybe too busy.
Iran and Italy are collateral damage. It got out of hand and now the whole thing has blown up in America's face. That's because China's authoritarian regime was able to get on top of the epidemic quickly, and they're first up best dressed. When the world recovers, they will be the one ready to buy everything. China may end up owning the world.
Will the west be ready to accept that? My friend thinks not, and that's why they'll go to war with China. Either that or wrap themselves in knots justifying economic sanctions. If calls for war or sanctions grow in the US and become accepted, my friend believes this will prove the virus originated in the United States. What do you think?
[Update @ 25/03/2020: It has been pointed out that the virus could not be a biological weapon as it has been proven it was not produced in a laboratory. I accept the second part, that it was not manufactured. However, simply saying a virus was not produced in a lab does not mean a virus could not be used for malicious purposes.
Trump: his saying that America must emerge soon from its harsh restrictions is a statement of the way it is really. America must emerge soon or it will wake up and find itself surpassed by China. If we look at the sheer volume of rhetoric emanating from the USA, all directed at China, and measure by that standard alone without looking at the science, it certainly does look as though this theory has legs. That is, the person doing all the finger pointing is often the perpetrator.]
[Update @ 21/10/2021: it is now fairly well accepted that the virus did originate in a lab, or at least it leaked from a lab there. What is still being contended is whether the US supplied this virus or funded research on coronaviruses that resulted in catastrophic outcomes. I'm giving my friend another pass mark on this, he's proven to be more right than wrong.]
March 22, 2020
March 19, 2020
Record Transport Spend
Drowned out by the Coronavirus announcements, New Zealand has just announced a massive infrastructure spend; $54 billion over the next 10 years. This is much needed and will act as a stimulus for the economy post the Coronavirus shutdown.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/120386461/phil-tyford-is-promising-a-54-billion-transport-binge-over-the-next-ten-years-with-a-focus-on-safety
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/120386461/phil-tyford-is-promising-a-54-billion-transport-binge-over-the-next-ten-years-with-a-focus-on-safety
March 17, 2020
Recession and the Upside
Due to the coronavirus, oil output, general stupidity on the part of governments regarding their levels of debt, private companies borrowing too much and whatever else; we are now in a worldwide recession. This will likely last the entire year. People are going to lose their jobs, they don't deserve to but companies, especially large companies, will use this event to shed staff. It's going to get worse before it gets better, let's put it that way.
Is there an upside to any of this, apart from the obvious, plenty of bargains for the cashed up investor. The main upside is all of these silly Green initiatives are toast. I'm talking about all those things the taxpayer funds, whether it is kerbside recycling or electric vehicles. Consumers are not going to be spending, they'll have to take the cheapest and most efficient option, out goes so-called Green. Green is not really Green I hope you realise, the whole thing is an exercise in fleecing you, me and everyone else. The only people who win are the crooks coming up with their silly ideas.
In the not too distant future, soon after the airlines get their bailouts (I hate to say it, they likely will get their bailouts), the Green companies will be crying to survive. Don't let them get access to your hard earned dollar.
Is there an upside to any of this, apart from the obvious, plenty of bargains for the cashed up investor. The main upside is all of these silly Green initiatives are toast. I'm talking about all those things the taxpayer funds, whether it is kerbside recycling or electric vehicles. Consumers are not going to be spending, they'll have to take the cheapest and most efficient option, out goes so-called Green. Green is not really Green I hope you realise, the whole thing is an exercise in fleecing you, me and everyone else. The only people who win are the crooks coming up with their silly ideas.
In the not too distant future, soon after the airlines get their bailouts (I hate to say it, they likely will get their bailouts), the Green companies will be crying to survive. Don't let them get access to your hard earned dollar.
March 13, 2020
Coronavirus and New Zealand
So far New Zealand has dodged the bullet. There have been a handful of COVID-19 cases but they seem to have been isolated early and there is no transmission of the virus within the wider community.
That said, calls are being made for NZ to do more, to shut down inbound flights, and for areas to be locked down with proven known cases. Reality check; NZ can't do that as it relies on air freight on passenger services to transport its pharmaceuticals, and without tourism the country would go bust fast. Districts can't be locked down either as NZ has no equivalent force to Italy's Carabinieri, its form of gendarmerie. NZ almost got there, once it had the Ministry of Transport road policing officers, a form of Polizia Di Stato, or civil lower level policing unit. The NZ police were placed over the top of that. But NZ cost-cut and merged the two, creating one large civil force and then underfunded it. NZ cannot now decide to be big bossy boots as it won't work, it is not possible to mobilise the gendarmerie as it completely lacks one. Thus, areas of the country cannot be isolated, the resources do not exist to do it.
And forget the army, those military bases are empty. NZ is so weak it can't pull the skin off a rice pudding.
The answer is to hope and pray. Trust that people will behave and isolate when required to. Wash hands, cover sneezes and coughs etc. That's it, there ain't no more. Good luck Kiwiland.
[ Update@ 14/03/2020 - the NZ government has announced it is requiring all inbound travellers to self-isolate for 14 days. This is voluntary and cannot be rigidly policed (see above as to why not), I expect a bail out of Air New Zealand is on the horizon, it always gets the handouts, hotels and motels will not be so lucky]
[Update @ 09/06/2020 - after several weeks of the most all-encompassing lockdown in the world, NZ has emerged with a broken tourism sector, a national debt level that is at record highs, widespread unemployment, and a closed border. NZ did actually close that border but some flights still occur, possibly to ensure air freight continues. It's a huge mess, but the way NZ's dear leader spins it, she's saved the country from its imminent demise. If you put this in a novel no-one would believe it. Now NZ has no resistance to the virus, and must stay shut away, potentially for years. ]
[ Update@ 14/03/2020 - the NZ government has announced it is requiring all inbound travellers to self-isolate for 14 days. This is voluntary and cannot be rigidly policed (see above as to why not), I expect a bail out of Air New Zealand is on the horizon, it always gets the handouts, hotels and motels will not be so lucky]
[Update @ 09/06/2020 - after several weeks of the most all-encompassing lockdown in the world, NZ has emerged with a broken tourism sector, a national debt level that is at record highs, widespread unemployment, and a closed border. NZ did actually close that border but some flights still occur, possibly to ensure air freight continues. It's a huge mess, but the way NZ's dear leader spins it, she's saved the country from its imminent demise. If you put this in a novel no-one would believe it. Now NZ has no resistance to the virus, and must stay shut away, potentially for years. ]
March 12, 2020
Coronavirus Recession
I'm calling 2020's biggest event, caused by the Coronavirus COVID-19, the Coronavirus Recession. This is a supply-side recession, not a demand-side one, for many that'll be a challenge. For old heads not so much, we remember the oil shocks of the 1970's. The effect will be much the same, you simply won't be able to get some things, learn to live without.
Not every measure will be done for health related reasons. I see the US President's suspending flights from Europe to America as more a political move. Is it punishing European countries for not putting in their fair share of defence spending? Personally, I think this must have something to do with it. After all, Donald Trump exempted the UK, which is in Europe. The UK puts in their full share and they left the EU. The US has sent a message loud and clear right there.
This means airlines will go bust. Airports too, along with hotel chains, restaurants; but not so much fast foods, people will eat at home.
Someone was wondering if this was the biggest single event since the Second World War. No, not yet anyway, the GFC is still ongoing and has had a greater effect, as did the Cold War itself. But this is very serious, no doubt about it. I mean, the NBA season has been suspended. What am I going to do with my free time now?
Not every measure will be done for health related reasons. I see the US President's suspending flights from Europe to America as more a political move. Is it punishing European countries for not putting in their fair share of defence spending? Personally, I think this must have something to do with it. After all, Donald Trump exempted the UK, which is in Europe. The UK puts in their full share and they left the EU. The US has sent a message loud and clear right there.
This means airlines will go bust. Airports too, along with hotel chains, restaurants; but not so much fast foods, people will eat at home.
Someone was wondering if this was the biggest single event since the Second World War. No, not yet anyway, the GFC is still ongoing and has had a greater effect, as did the Cold War itself. But this is very serious, no doubt about it. I mean, the NBA season has been suspended. What am I going to do with my free time now?
March 09, 2020
Oil Price Tumbles
The oil price is tumbling and that's a good thing. Oil feeds into every part of the economy and now the price of goods can come down. Consumers are going to have some hard earned cash in their pockets for a change.
The collapse in oil price is partly due to the Coronavirus and a fall in demand as people stay at home, but also because Russia and Saudi Arabia disagree on oil output and have begun pumping furiously. They can keep that up as far as I'm concerned.
This spells trouble ahead for Wall Street. Many American companies associated with oil have loans maturing soon, and they don't look as good with the price of oil being so low. I explain it like this; if a company is now worth $10 billion and has $6 billion in debt all maturing soon, and the price of oil slips leaving the company now worth $7 billion, it cannot roll over the debt as it doesn't have enough net equity on its balance sheet. It would be able to raise about $4 billion, meaning $2 billion has to be tipped in by shareholders. Across the board that's going to embarrass many investors and some companies will collapse. The message is - don't have too much debt.
The collapse in oil price is partly due to the Coronavirus and a fall in demand as people stay at home, but also because Russia and Saudi Arabia disagree on oil output and have begun pumping furiously. They can keep that up as far as I'm concerned.
This spells trouble ahead for Wall Street. Many American companies associated with oil have loans maturing soon, and they don't look as good with the price of oil being so low. I explain it like this; if a company is now worth $10 billion and has $6 billion in debt all maturing soon, and the price of oil slips leaving the company now worth $7 billion, it cannot roll over the debt as it doesn't have enough net equity on its balance sheet. It would be able to raise about $4 billion, meaning $2 billion has to be tipped in by shareholders. Across the board that's going to embarrass many investors and some companies will collapse. The message is - don't have too much debt.
March 06, 2020
Coronation Street - Issues
I have been following the UK television soap opera, Coronation Street almost from the beginning. It is entertaining but I haven't followed literally every episode, sometimes missing entire years. But I do know the characters and ongoing plots.
These days however, Coronation Street is losing it for me. There are three main issues as I see it. The first is with recycled story lines. They seem to have run out of ideas. An example currently is the Kevin Webster, Abi and evil Ray Crosby story; simply a repeat of the Pat Whelan, Anna Windass story line.
I'm fine with the types that must be in every season. There's the pub owner, usually a woman, the builder bloke, the successful businessperson, the corner shop owner, the community centre person running things and the resident criminal. Of course, the Barlow family must be there too, and there are now places for other businesses and the people around them.
But to stay on the street, all those people have to find reason to stay and this is my second issue. No matter what, everyone gets dragged down, losing money, going to jail, becoming a loser in general. In reality if this was a street that really existed, every time something happened the TV news and every newspaper would announce Britain's worst street is at it again. They'd all be famous or notorious and all be unemployable simply for living in the vicinity. The council would demolish the whole area and put up big box retail outlets.
Which leads me to my final point, flowing on from everyone must be a loser; all strong women must be crushed and become slobbering messes. No doubt a strong man will come to their rescue. Examples of this you demand; OK, Carla once a successful businesswoman, became mentally deranged but was rescued by the alcoholic Peter Barlow. Sally became mayor but went to jail, she ended up being rescued by the illiterate former window cleaner. Yasmeen owns an eaterie but she can't see the abusive nature of Geoff, her new partner as she's dragged into the mire. Who will rescue her, another reformed but very capable man? Hmm? The list is endless with this stuff.
How about stop doing this as Coronation Street has to be shedding viewers. How about someone can be successful and remain so, avert tragedy, suffer a few setbacks but manage their exit adroitly. Where are these people now, they used to be on the street. And what is it with everyone confessing? Everyone confessing their wrong-doing and going to jail. How about stop doing that too, otherwise call the police station Confessions R Us.
These days however, Coronation Street is losing it for me. There are three main issues as I see it. The first is with recycled story lines. They seem to have run out of ideas. An example currently is the Kevin Webster, Abi and evil Ray Crosby story; simply a repeat of the Pat Whelan, Anna Windass story line.
I'm fine with the types that must be in every season. There's the pub owner, usually a woman, the builder bloke, the successful businessperson, the corner shop owner, the community centre person running things and the resident criminal. Of course, the Barlow family must be there too, and there are now places for other businesses and the people around them.
But to stay on the street, all those people have to find reason to stay and this is my second issue. No matter what, everyone gets dragged down, losing money, going to jail, becoming a loser in general. In reality if this was a street that really existed, every time something happened the TV news and every newspaper would announce Britain's worst street is at it again. They'd all be famous or notorious and all be unemployable simply for living in the vicinity. The council would demolish the whole area and put up big box retail outlets.
Which leads me to my final point, flowing on from everyone must be a loser; all strong women must be crushed and become slobbering messes. No doubt a strong man will come to their rescue. Examples of this you demand; OK, Carla once a successful businesswoman, became mentally deranged but was rescued by the alcoholic Peter Barlow. Sally became mayor but went to jail, she ended up being rescued by the illiterate former window cleaner. Yasmeen owns an eaterie but she can't see the abusive nature of Geoff, her new partner as she's dragged into the mire. Who will rescue her, another reformed but very capable man? Hmm? The list is endless with this stuff.
How about stop doing this as Coronation Street has to be shedding viewers. How about someone can be successful and remain so, avert tragedy, suffer a few setbacks but manage their exit adroitly. Where are these people now, they used to be on the street. And what is it with everyone confessing? Everyone confessing their wrong-doing and going to jail. How about stop doing that too, otherwise call the police station Confessions R Us.
March 05, 2020
Coronavirus and the Recession
Recession, that's what the world is now facing and we need to take this seriously. Ignore advice from financial planners and the like, they have a vested interest in saying it is all temporary, the outlook is good, just invest in their particular schemes. Oh right, invest in their proposals. Actually how about not taking that advice.
Now there will be opportunities, bargain buys. If governments have any sense they will allow this to happen, with capitalism you have the freedom to go bust. Back during the GFC, governments rescued certain industries and companies, effectively denying investors those bargains. What that did was prop up ineffective and failing businesses that were poorly managed. They kept going and they're still around and that's bad. The advantage of capitalism - it's by no means a perfect system but it does do some things - is it does weed out the weak.
Then after weeding out the weak, we need to have a serious think about the way forward and away from relying so heavily on countries like China. What this virus exposes is the stupidity of relying on key goods coming from far away. The whole economy is held to ransom because of a shutdown in that far away country. That can't be allowed to continue.
The USA will be fine, they'll address the matter. Their tariffs on goods from China began the process of addressing this vulnerability, but now it will gather pace backed by the resolve to continue. In countries such as Australia and New Zealand, it is highly likely they'll continue to lie to themselves and be less independent, akin to seaworthy vessels adrift on the high seas without a rudder.
Now there will be opportunities, bargain buys. If governments have any sense they will allow this to happen, with capitalism you have the freedom to go bust. Back during the GFC, governments rescued certain industries and companies, effectively denying investors those bargains. What that did was prop up ineffective and failing businesses that were poorly managed. They kept going and they're still around and that's bad. The advantage of capitalism - it's by no means a perfect system but it does do some things - is it does weed out the weak.
Then after weeding out the weak, we need to have a serious think about the way forward and away from relying so heavily on countries like China. What this virus exposes is the stupidity of relying on key goods coming from far away. The whole economy is held to ransom because of a shutdown in that far away country. That can't be allowed to continue.
The USA will be fine, they'll address the matter. Their tariffs on goods from China began the process of addressing this vulnerability, but now it will gather pace backed by the resolve to continue. In countries such as Australia and New Zealand, it is highly likely they'll continue to lie to themselves and be less independent, akin to seaworthy vessels adrift on the high seas without a rudder.
March 03, 2020
LanzaTech
I recently saw a television profile of LanzaTech, the bio fuel company based in Chicago, Illinois. Made for New Zealand TV, much was made of the origins of the company in NZ. I've heard of the company before, I knew they'd moved to Chicago, dumping NZ staff in the process; though the programme maintained much of the Kiwi based staff were relocated to the USA. So far, so good, or at least I thought so until I checked out LanzaTech's website later.
The Lanzatech website rarely mentions NZ. The founder, Dr Sean Simpson is revealed as an Englishman who has lived in a number of countries, but not NZ evidently as his company profile fails to mention it. No mention is made of the company's origins in NZ, and of the NZ taxpayer support they received. Very strange all this, as the reporter for the television piece showed an ebullient Simpson supposedly proud of his Kiwi connection, having children born there and having lived the longest part of his life in the country. You'd think this would at least be mentioned on their website somewhere, but if it was, I couldn't find it.
This looks to be another kick in the teeth for little old New Zealand. Upon further research I find NZ's Heavy Engineering Research Association (HERA) have the same idea:
https://www.hera.org.nz/lanzatech-fish-got-away/
HERA are kinder to LanzaTech though, they think a lack of support from the government led them to leave. A John Key disaster that one then. But I'm not so kind, I think this is a classic example of startups exploiting creativity and invention. The obvious answer is to do the exercise again, creating a competitor to LanzaTech; much of the technology still resides in Kiwi brains, do it again, much the way the British did with nuclear weapons. In the latter example, the British gave their tech to the Manhattan Project, only for the Americans to refuse to give it back, so the British simply did it all again. That's how Britain gets to be a nuclear power (not many people know that).
The Lanzatech website rarely mentions NZ. The founder, Dr Sean Simpson is revealed as an Englishman who has lived in a number of countries, but not NZ evidently as his company profile fails to mention it. No mention is made of the company's origins in NZ, and of the NZ taxpayer support they received. Very strange all this, as the reporter for the television piece showed an ebullient Simpson supposedly proud of his Kiwi connection, having children born there and having lived the longest part of his life in the country. You'd think this would at least be mentioned on their website somewhere, but if it was, I couldn't find it.
This looks to be another kick in the teeth for little old New Zealand. Upon further research I find NZ's Heavy Engineering Research Association (HERA) have the same idea:
https://www.hera.org.nz/lanzatech-fish-got-away/
HERA are kinder to LanzaTech though, they think a lack of support from the government led them to leave. A John Key disaster that one then. But I'm not so kind, I think this is a classic example of startups exploiting creativity and invention. The obvious answer is to do the exercise again, creating a competitor to LanzaTech; much of the technology still resides in Kiwi brains, do it again, much the way the British did with nuclear weapons. In the latter example, the British gave their tech to the Manhattan Project, only for the Americans to refuse to give it back, so the British simply did it all again. That's how Britain gets to be a nuclear power (not many people know that).