Second Season of Alone

I have to say I was disappointed with the start to the second season of Alone, the TV reality show where people are left in a remote location and have to exist on their own. You all have probably seen it already but I've only just started watching. The first to tap out was a black guy by the name Desmond who wandered around for less than a day, did nothing apart from try to cut some wood, then he was out of there. What? He didn't even try to light a fire? Was he employed to flesh out the numbers was he?

Then in the same episode it ends with a female competitor cutting her hand. Her name is Mary. She couldn't even cut kindling. Give me a break, this is lame so far. The first season, that was interesting. But it was also tarnished by people giving up too easily, like the guy who packed it in just because he lost his Fero rod. Also I got the impression that many got out when they thought they'd done enough to promote themselves and their skills. However so far the so-called experts in the second season appear to be couch potatoes.

There is one woman competitor, the larger lady called Tracy, she looks useful. We'll have to wait and see how they get on, don't tell me the outcome.

Australia Cricket Cheats

Australia have been cheating at cricket for decades. Ban the whole team for a year, that'd sort the problem. Ban them all I say.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/cricket/australia-in-south-africa/smiths-shame-australia-media-slam-rotten-cricket-culture/articleshow/63460950.cms

Why Julie Anne Genter is Wrong (Mostly)

New Zealand Green MP, Julie Anne Genter is causing controversy by calling for old white men to be ditched in favour of others.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/03/old-white-men-should-make-way-for-others-julie-anne-genter.html

Some argument can be made for moving many of them on. Some old white men occupying positions of power are simply there serving time. They offer nothing and achieve little. But you do still need some of those old white men and I'll tell you why - they know where the keys are kept.

That's right, call it administrative memory or what you will. But these old timers know why something is done the way it's done and that can be very valuable information. It's valuable even if you want to challenge that very same information. It's better than stumbling around in the dark.

But I don't like the Greens and this issue is partly the reason why; they're really just socialists re-branded, Green is just a flag of convenience. The more they shoot themselves in the foot the faster voters can learn they're not to be trusted and move them out too.

Shane Jones vs Air NZ

And the winner is...Shane Jones. Air New Zealand, what a dud, how many times have they gone bust...hmm?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102424489/shane-jones-continues-war-of-words-with-air-nz-as-chairman-hits-back 

I've got to applaud Shane Jones for trying.

Why Westbrook Should Have Left OKC

Have a look at the following video from ESPN. It covers the same ground addressed by me in earlier posts to this blog, pointing out that the Thunder have traded and got little back in return. The argument here is that's because the owner is too tight. Westbrook if he had any sense would get himself to the Lakers and a bigger media market - Los Angeles

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=22760850

Sexual Assault Allegations and Labour

Not so good news, Labour are still at it. I'm talking about the latest sexual assault allegations surrounding a 'youth camp' held by the New Zealand Labour Party at Waihi in February of this year. A 20 year old man is alleged to have assaulted at least three teenage girls aged 16.

This is not the first time folks, but it is the first time the matter has gained mainstream media attention, likely because of the current climate which is spotlighting abuse such as this. When I first heard the latest news, I commented, 'I wonder if the person doing this was the son of someone important?'

I say that because Labour tried to keep a lid on it. It appears they put pressure on the girls to not make a police complaint, and not to go public. This kind of pressure is never overt; it is usually implied in statements around doing what the victim wants, and making counselling available. The implication is that any complaint could result in the victim also being labelled or judged.

Not good enough Labour. The 20 year old is a man, not a boy being silly or inappropriate on a school camp and requiring corrective action be taken. He's a sex offender, pure and simple.

Will this sink Labour? No. Should Labour own this and deal with it appropriately? Yes. Will they? Let's wait and see.

Meanwhile Don Brash, libertarian and former National and Act Party serial underachiever has questioned whether this matter is newsworthy; it led the news across NZ yesterday. You're wrong this time Brash; this is a lead item as Labour tried to cover it up. 

Link on this story: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102237347/second-sexual-assault-allegation-surfaces-for-labour-party

NBA: OKC's Playoff Chances

I'm still not convinced the Oklahoma City Thunder will make the playoffs. They're just barely hanging on to fifth place in the western conference. The Clippers and the Jazz could easily qualify in the top 8, and the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Nuggets are playing well at the business end of the season. I put the patchy form of OKC down to the Carmelo Anthony factor.

Labour Will Not Ban Rodeo

Finally some sense. There has been a concerted campaign in New Zealand these last few months, from groups opposed to rodeo. This worked its way through to the NZ government, but they've put a stop to the idea - rodeo will not be banned.

Phew is all I can say. Rodeo is very popular amongst the rural community in NZ. The only criticism of it from me is that it's an American affectation, rather akin to tractor pulling. NZ has its own traditional activities; eventing (horses), sheep shearing, wood chopping, fencing (of the farm fence kind, not sword fighting though some do this too), ploughing, baking, sheep herding, and so on. But some enjoy rodeo and the events are places for the often isolated rural communities to come together.

This is a classic town vs country debate that has been ongoing for decades. When Labour are in government, town is usually in ascendancy. It looks like the current NZ Labour government want to stay in power for a long time, as any ban of rodeo would have seen a widespread 'nanny state' backlash that would have been disastrous.

Labour Announce Education Shake-up

Okay so New Zealand has a new coalition government, led by Labour. It was needed, a change of government that is, and NZ clearly voted for change despite what National say when bleating about their defeat. A lot of good to talk about in the change; we'll get investment in construction, regional development, primary industry as that's where a lot of Labour voters are. All good.

But the not-so-good we can see starting to happen already. Labour, this may come as a shock so I hope you're sitting down when you read this, are owned by teachers. That's right, teachers in schools own the party that now runs the country.

So they're going to make changes. This could be good or it could be really bad and I'm picking really bad as it's the fox being put in charge of the hen house. Teachers are a lazy bunch you see. If they weren't lazy then they wouldn't be teachers, they'd be doing something that involved hard work (stop right there, I used to be teacher, don't tell me it's hard work, just don't, I stopped teaching to do something that was difficult). Teachers are necessary, very necessary but they're not rocket scientists. If they were rocket scientists then they'd be building rockets but they're not, so they're not.

What will happen is more control being put in the hands of teachers, and what you'll get is even less teaching. The new age of the illiterate and innumerate is about the dawn on the good people of NZ and they don't even know it. I'm just glad my children dodged this bullet.

I've written about this before, you can check some of my posts out here:

http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2014/06/reform-of-nz-education.html

http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2014/06/ncea.html

http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/05/more-nz-education-and-bryan-bruce.html

Winter Olympics 2018

New Zealand has broken the drought with two more medals to add to the one it won 26 years ago in Albertville, France in 1992. That first medal was a silver in the slalom by Annelise Coberger. What this means is that New Zealand is now three times better than Denmark, a country that has still only won one medal. That's right, Denmark won their sole medal, a silver in curling in 1998.

But in 2018 the story of these games must be Norway. A tiny country of only just over 5 million people and they lead on the medal table with only a few days to go. How do they do it? It turns out to be all about money; they're rich and invest in their athletic programmes more broadly. Here's an interested article on the subject.

Oh and Russia has to be called Olympic Athletes from Russia, and they can't use their flag. It's like they're the only country that dopes their athletes. Oh right, pull the other one!! My take on this is very straightforward; the west owns the doping system and keep themselves one step ahead of the agency tasked with detecting abuse. Those outside the loop, like Russia, well they're kept guessing and thus they get busted more often. Just assume all athletes are doped one way or the other and let's move on shall we, I'm sick of the finger being pointed at Russia all the time.

Simon English to step down (finally)

The incompetent Leader of the Opposition, Simon "Bill" English is saying goodbye to the New Zealand Parliament. Finally, we are free of this man who has insisted for so long everyone listen to him. He offered nothing, delivered nothing and led his party to two staggering defeats; the first just about destroyed his party and the second was a magnificent effort in clutching defeat from the jaws of victory.

For me though, with English it was all about the poor people and how much he hated them. Every chance he got he kicked them. It's hard to know why he was like that but he did a lot of social damage to his country. Personally I don't trust a man with the first name Simon, using a name like Bill. What's up with that? And then there was his faux Southland accent.

We can all let out a collective sigh of relief. He's gone, finally.

Third Novel Underway

My readers will be happy to know I'm in the middle of writing my third novel. It's a little bit Sci-Fi, a little bit comedy, tongue in cheek. I will be finishing it up in a couple of months time.

Crash 2018

Only a month ago I said that I was negative for 2018 and I told you why.

>> See Here <<

Now we have a crash across all stock markets. It was to be expected. Too much uncertainty exists in the global arena, and too much wealth concentrated in a few hands. Plus we have not had structurally meaningful reforms to economies. All that happened post the GFC was bail outs and doubling down. Inefficiency and incompetence was rewarded.

For the value investor, right now is a golden opportunity. Have you been a frugal investor and kept your cash in the bank? Yes? The next few weeks is the time to venture out and begin looking for bargains. Study my portfolio from the following site;

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521

My suggestion is to look for companies that everyone else thinks are too boring for words. If your neighbours have never heard of them, then maybe that's a good thing and you should check them out - the company that is, not your neighbours.

[Update @ 03/04/2019 - this portfolio is still ahead 28% despite the 2020 COVID-19 Crisis. That's testament to conservative investment strategy. The real crash wasn't 2018, but 2020, but with my strategy it doesn't matter ]

Sexism Dos and Don'ts

We live in a strange age. An age where this kind of explicit sexuality is deemed fine and dandy...cue leggy models....




But then F1 grid girls are a no go....

Err, hello world, reality check. While personally I've never seen the point in having models displayed at grand prix events (okay so an exception would be hosts at corporate events and the like, hosts of both gender preferably), the above video seems to be celebrated while the girls in the image below are vilified, but in fact I fail to see any difference between them. 

Rocket Lab Launch Satellite

New Zealand has entered the business of space by launching a satellite from its soil. Quite an achievement and this is a commercial scale undertaking with many more launches planned.

See the launch video here (countdown from 10, 9, 8 starts at 14:48):

New Zealand Too Small

A post now about my country of birth, little old New Zealand. NZ has failed but not woken up to that fact yet. How it failed was it did not invest enough in the right areas, it did not grow its population, and it did not listen. But there are exit chutes available and I'll mention them here, in order from the less preferred by me to the most preferred. Here goes, the way I see it NZ has 4 options:

4. Become part of Australia. This is the easiest option, NZ is already a State in fact and can just snap its fingers and voila. However the reason this isn't the answer is to do with business cycles and the way Australia itself functions. NZ already has direct access but Australia treats NZ like branch office, the latter effect would just get worse. Australia just doesn't have enough grunt by itself either, adding NZ doesn't add much to what is itself small (Oz), and in terms of economic cycles Australia is often going in the opposite direction to NZ.  So Kiwiland can give this a swerve.

3. Form an empire of the South Pacific Rim. Not as silly as it seems, join all the South Pacific Islands together with the western seaboard of South America, together with NZ and the eastern seaboard of Australia. This is an empire situated in a basin, from the eastern side of the Great Dividing Range across the ocean to the Andes. The problem with this is legal systems and language.

2. Join the EU. To achieve this, NZ could merge with a small European country, such as Denmark. Denmark has 5.7 million people, NZ 4.5 million. Culturally there is not much separating them, they both hold territory at the extremities, Denmark with Greenland and NZ with the Ross Sea in Antarctica. This could be a match made in heaven. Legally, culturally, economically, and even with language there would not be much to worry about. I like this option a lot. Both countries double in size overnight and both gain.

1. Become a State of the USA. Yes I've said this before and this option is the most fancied. NZ stands to gain a lot, principally in terms of access to capital and in industrial development. The legal systems, culturally, linguistically, there is very little to learn and the US gains resources. I have looked at the pros and cons of this here: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/05/new-zealand-51st-state.html

Long term what cannot continue is the ever growing size of government unmatched by real GDP growth. NZ needs to industrialise, its failure in this respect will see its farmland collapse. Maybe not in my lifetime but almost certainly in the lifetime of my grandchildren and that's a real concern.

Catherine Deneuve

The New Yorker has published a good counter to the open letter signed by Catherine Deneuve and other signatories.

Read it here: https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-did-catherine-deneuve-and-other-prominent-frenchwomen-denounce-metoo

I'd agree that this isn't a case of cultural differences, but add it's a case of the French being wilfully obtuse. I swear they wait to find out what the English speaking world thinks and then say the opposite.

Oprah Winfrey for President

As a result of Oprah Winfrey's outstanding speech at the Golden Globe awards there is a clamour for her to stand for President of the US in 2020. She'd be good in the role and this isn't the first time such a prospect has been mentioned. I remember at one point speculation over her being the first black President.

There are one or two impediments to her candidacy and I won't dwell on these just yet, wait for the bible belt to do that. My concern is why would she? Wouldn't she be more valuable and more of an influencer being an even bigger media mogul? An Oprah IPO would be worth billions and with that she could buy a major player, networks, communications companies, film studios. She could be the next Rupert Murdoch.

Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House

Anyone read Fire and Fury yet? Please share your thoughts about the book if you have, I'm fascinated to hear the gossip.

The book is written by Michael Wolf and been all over the news in case you just arrived back on earth and didn't know: https://www.amazon.com/Fire-Fury-Inside-Trump-White/dp/1250158060

Negative Outlook 2018

Globally I've got a negative outlook for 2018 and I'll tell you why. The way I see it, we have too much uncertainty worldwide, both in terms of national security and commerce. Generally speaking, it isn't wise to worry about this or that government when investing. The rule is find good businesses that are well managed and put your money into them. I'd agree for the most part and I'm aware the Dow Jones is performing well.

But where I go negative is looking at issues with the Middle East, Pakistan, and North Korea. Then we have an at times unhinged President Trump. Then consider that financially all the world did was double down post the Global Financial Crisis, the underlying issues have never been properly addressed.

That last point is the most serious I feel. Wealth is increasingly concentrated in fewer hands within the developed nations. This has got to result in instability, particularly within the EU.

On the plus side we have Africa emerging, and living standards there are rising along with incomes. I often say that sub-Saharan Africa needs to find a Garribaldi. The region badly needs that kind of leader.

My advice therefore is to look for value, and continue to invest in companies that are boring beyond belief. Eschew all the sexy stuff, and by that I mean the latest technology whiz-bang. Tesla cars are at the top of my hit list, who would own such a stuff of nonsense. Keep it boring, keep it simple, don't believe what you are told and never listen to hype.