Election: Prediction

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a Labour landslide in this years general election in New Zealand. I went to vote early yesterday and the booths were busy. When people can't wait to vote and good weather leads up to the polling day it usually means Labour win. And there is a buzz, people are talking politics and this hasn't been the case for 20 or so years. National win when there is no debate and everyone is bored, the blue rinse set who are National's core support put their rents up and then sneak down to the polling booth in their Lexus or Audi and don't talk to anyone. Okay, so I'm being prejudiced, but there is truth in what I'm saying. Labour would have to stone cold drop the ball to lose from here.

Polls: National or Labour in Front?

There are conflicting poll results leading up to this years general election in New Zealand. TV1 has Labour in front while TV3 say National has extended its lead in front. They can't both be right. To find what the problem is I'd suggest looking at the sample sizes and methodology behind each poll. My guess is that TV1 is biased toward the large metropolitan areas while TV3 is biased toward the regions. Considering there are far more people living in cities, I'd pay more attention to the TV1 poll results.

Something else to think about, NZ First usually does better on election day. A myriad of reasons for this, including when asked people won't admit to supporting NZ First, or they're older people and always leave the answer-phone on and so can't be polled.

My money is still on a Labour/NZ First coalition. Labour on 40% plus NZ First's 9%, = 49% and with lost or wasted votes a majority in parliament. This MMP is a stupid system foisted on us by the Greens way back in the day, it's brilliant that same system is going to dump on them. Ha ha you bunch of naysayers.

Turn Sunlight into Liquid Fuel

This is good news, finally a technology that really turns things on its head. Please read the following link:

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/06/bionic-leaf-turns-sunlight-into-liquid-fuel/

The Rise of Labour and the NZ General Election 2017

Never underestimate NZ Prime Minister Simon "Bill" English's ability to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. I have no idea how competent the Labour leader Jacinda Ardern is, but voters can see she's at least human. By comparison Bill English you know is just lying every time he speaks. Now I realise both are lying most of the time, but English comes across as particularly disingenuous. It looks like Labour are romping to victory. A week, as they say, is a long time in politics.

The Greens Demise

It's about time the Greens got their comeuppance. These professional naysayers and avoiders of all responsibility have plunged in recent polls. On current trends they'll be out of the Nee Zealand Parliament all together. It turns out their support base was mostly Labour voters and now Labour has a viable leader, traditional Labour support is flocking back, abandoning the Greens in so doing.

Basketball Obsession and The Crushing Son

The Kindle versions of my two novels are available right now for free. For a limited time only as they say. Please download your free copy and read on your computer using Amazon's free Kindle reader software or buy a Kindle device and really cut loose.

If you like the stories then please review the books on Amazon. Despite being widely read, actually getting reviews seems more difficult than it looks, that is real reviews, I don't pay people to review my work.

You can also buy a paperback copy. I have a good conversion rate, meaning people who read the stories in Kindle format then often buy the book. I make more money this way, the royalties on the actual physical book are better than those from the electronic version.

The two books can be downloaded for free here:

Basketball Obsession

The Crushing Son

Time Travel

I may have mentioned this before but here I go again, time travel and not the type for science fiction fans.

Is it possible to travel in time? Probably not physically but I think you can see the past and future and I'll tell you how. Let's deal with looking back in time first. We all travel in time when we look at the stars at night. When we do that we see the light as it was when that light left the star. That's not what you might see nearby the same star. Even light from the sun to earth takes 8 minutes and 20 seconds to reach us. That light illuminates our world and we live in 'real time' but the light is actually old and we sunbathe while enjoying the past.

Taking this idea a step further, imagine a world farther away and light from our sun takes 2,000 years to reach them. They see our world as it was under the Romans, not in the 21st Century.

See a map of the Orion arm of the Milky Way to get an idea of where the Roman world can be viewed from: http://www.atlasoftheuniverse.com/2000lys.html

The technical problem is being able to see earth from the vantage point of 2,000 light years away right here on earth. Solve that then learn how to fine tune it, like seeing earth from a spy satellite. See how Julius Caesar really died and potentially what he actually said which almost certainly was not 'Et tu Brute', as Brutus was not even there.

To see ahead in time the answer is chemical. We need to speed ourselves up (but not to the point we disintegrate or die) to see ahead in time. Call it prediction with chemical clarity. Can drug users see into the future? I don't think so as they're probably taking the wrong pharmaceutical drugs.

How could it be safe? It'd be hard to make safe or to even get permission to experiment, but I think seeing ahead in time is a chemical problem not a physical one. How far ahead? My thinking is 12 to 24 hours ahead, not much more than that. Has this ever happened naturally? The reported experience of soldiers fighting in battle suggests so. I've read accounts where they say they see the future, and I believe this could be chemical, produced by the stress of their surroundings.

War Looming in the Far East

I have already posted about the massive military build up occurring in Japan right now. You'll remember the US warship that ran into a cargo ship in Tokyo Bay. That likely happened because the US are starting to fall over one another. Also extremely busy are the Kanagawa area US Naval Air Facilities.

Now with President Trump issuing stark warnings to North Korea, I'm predicting war will result. Somewhere along the line the US made the decision and pushed the 'go' button.

This was my post in April 2017:

I've got friends living in Yokohama, Japan and they tell me the US Navy base at Yokosuka is the busiest they've ever seen it. Also extremely busy are the Kanagawa area US Naval Air Facilities. Planes are flying in 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Locals are complaining of the noise. Bear in mind all the various crises over the decades, but they say the bases have always just been ticking along despite that. Not now, now they're really ramping up. Based on this evidence I'd say the US is preparing for war and not just talking tough. Who will that war be with? North Korea is my suggestion and anyone else who takes their side.

Picks from Downunder

Three companies to look for, they're financial and construction.

The first represents good value for money at the moment. Westpac is a major Australian bank, the largest in terms of branch network. They're down right now and therefore cheap. The Australian government would never let Westpac go bust. Never ever. So this is a safe bet. They're not a bad income earning investment either.

Snapshot of Westpac: https://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:WBC

For the retired folks looking at yield. consider Kiwibank capital notes, at current prices yielding 6.9%. Kiwibank are essentially New Zealand government owned and would never be allowed to fail. Any government that did let them fail would not be the government come the next election.

The capital notes here: https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX/hybrids/KCFHA

And lastly we have Fletcher Building. They're NZ's largest construction company and experiencing some speed wobbles. Fletcher own both Laminex and Formica (you know those - right?) and the only cement factory in NZ, Golden Bay Cement at Whangarei. They're everywhere and do anything including build houses. They have a lot of political clout and so I'd consider them a safe bet too.

Fletcher Building: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NZE:FBU

Labour Party Antics

Today could see a new leader for the New Zealand Labour Party just weeks out from a General Election. While that may seem amusing I wouldn't be so quick to write them off just yet. Consider all the surprising election results we've seen the last couple of years. Then we have Greens co-leader Metiria Turei admitting to benefit fraud and actually rising in the polls. Of course the thought has occurred to me that she did no such thing and is simply politicking.

Basketball Obsession

My first novel Basketball Obsession is free today and tomorrow on Kindle.

https://www.amazon.com/Basketball-Obsession-Ken-Horlor-ebook/dp/B00VIEZ51G/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8

Automobile Innovation

Here's an idea I've had concerning electric cars. This has probably been thought of before, but my version goes like this: the problem with electric cars is range. Fine for around town stuff, but between cities the electric cars run out of juice.

What about cars that run on roads with an electrical supply reticulated into the road itself. Steam trains used to have water towers for refuelling, then a trough came along placed beside the track, a scoop picks up the water and the train never has to stop. Well, how about zones on highways where there is a live rail and the car lowers a wand to charge the batteries as the car drives along. Solar and wind could be added as a source of power as well as the surface also generating power from the wheels rolling across the surface.

Then what about nuclear cars. I currently have a car sitting in the garage with a full fuel tank. If invented today the set-up would probably be illegal. So what about a safe steam car, the heat coming from an on-board reactor. Within the useful life of the car it would never need refuelling. Think like a watch on the wrist glowing in the dark. As safe as that watch would be the design brief.

Garbine Muguruza

Watching Wimbledon, I admire the mental toughness of Gabine Muguruza. When down or things are not working out she has the capacity to self-correct and get back on track. She did this against both Angelique Kerber and Svetlana Kuznetsova. She is clearly playing to a game plan and it's good she keeps to that plan.

[Phew, she won Wimbledon, I'm back to predicting well after my failure in picking the Cavs to win the NBA Playoffs]

All Blacks 15 Lions 15

I've said it before and this is a timely moment to repeat myself; I predict that in the not too distant future, the All Blacks will be banned for being too good. How it happens will be through the referees blowing the whistle every time an All Blacks player touches the ball. And then a new competition will evolve which excludes the world's top Rugby team altogether.

With the drawn match between the All Blacks and Lions at Eden Park I think we can see the beginning of the trend. Near the end of this game we saw the referee consult and change his mind in making an obvious political decision in not allowing an All Blacks series victory. The referee, Frenchman Romain Poite, to put it bluntly, was 100% right to award the penalty near the end for an offside by the Lions, then 100% wrong to change his mind.

Watch this space as more of this will continue. For decades the northern hemisphere have changed the rules annually in an attempt to nullify All Blacks dominance. The result has seen the All Blacks get ever better. Now a new approach will emerge and that will be to blow the whistle and in so doing, blow the All Blacks off the park.

Make East Cape Monaco

Here's an idea for developing East Cape in the North Island of New Zealand; turn it into another Monaco.

Monaco is a principality on the Mediterranean and alongside France. It has no natural resources to speak of and occupies about 2 square kilometres. Despite this it is one of the richest countries on earth, if not the richest. What makes it so is zero taxation. It's a magnet to those wishing to minimise the amount of tax they pay.

France tolerates this but does not allow its own citizens to participate. If you're French and living in Monaco, you still pay tax at the rate that applies in France.

This is my idea - create East Cape as some form of self governing autonomous region, with no personal or company taxation. But this does not extend to New Zealanders or Australians.

As I understand it, to be a permanent resident in Monaco requires some hoops to be jumped through. There is a minimum amount of time you need to be in residence each year and it takes upwards of 12 years to gain permanent permanent status. Up to then any resident is subject to annual or three-yearly checks.

For East Cape I'm talking about all that area from Ruatoria to Hicks Bay. Turn it into Monaco.

Greenbrier Companies Inc (NYSE: GBX)

My latest stock pick is railcar and marine manufacturer Greenbrier Companies Inc., based in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

Check them out here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBX?p=GBX

I make no secret if my liking for solid industrials like these. But one thing to note is many pundits are picking them to collapse. I don't see that happening and expect them to do well.

[Update @ 20/11/2019: now solidly in the buy range for bargain hunters ]

PACCAR Inc

My latest stock tip is PACCAR Inc., (Nasdaq PCAR) They're a truck manufacturer and a pretty good one at that. Brands under their roof include Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF.

They also own Leyland and Foden. Why they retired these brands is a matter of conjecture and a mistake in my opinion. The Leyland plant in England is still producing but the trucks coming out the door are branded DAF. This seems strange as Leyland is a well respected premium truck brand right across the former British Empire. Foden also has a respected name, particularly its tippers. Maybe the Americans don't understand the depth and breadth of the brands.

But that aside, PACCAR is cheap right now. Since I adjusted my portfolio they're up 4%. By the way, for those following my tips, back in January 2016 I tipped Joy Global which was about $10 at the time. Later that year when Komatsu America bought them out, the price was just north of $28. I did say at the time that it was a pick for the not so risk averse as it could go either way. For those of you that are risk takers, you made a lot of money.

Is PACCAR in the Joy Global camp? No way. Can you imagine a world without Kenworth? I can't and that's why they won't disappear any time soon.

Forgotten Companies

I found this link interesting http://contractormag.co.nz/classic-machines/hough/ It tells the story of Hough, the US manufacturer of good Wheel Loaders. Depending on which story you believe. Hough invented the fully hydraulic pivot steer loader (while others say that was the Moore Scoopmobile). On my trip to the US last year I saw many Hough loaders still in their original paint.

That got me to thinking, what about those brands that are still hanging on somewhere, anywhere.

How about Gradall These telescopic boom excavators are innovative but never found widespread support.

Smalley is the inventor of the mini excavator. Made in the UK, they were, I believe, originally grave diggers. Then they put out a dredger for clearing canals, and these were exported to India. The company still exists.

One brand that doesn't appear around anymore is the Halitrax skid steer loader. Made in New Zealand they were the inventor of the rubber track skid steer loader and subsequently copied worldwide. They were sold mostly in Auckland and the upper North Island and in the Sydney and New South Wales market. In Australia an earthmover will still advertise having ' a Drott, a Tipper and a Halitrax,' the terms being industry standard.

The Bedford J5 and J6 is no longer made but they live on in Pakistan where the trucks have gained legend status. That's because they're simple, powerful and tough. Pakistan still import used J5/J6's and fit wooden bodies to the chassis. On their rough roads wooden bodies hold up better. Many will be familiar with the decorated site of these trucks: http://s3.amazonaws.com/mbc_actionha/uploads/56997/original.jpg

Why isn't the venerable Bedford J5/J6 still being made? It seems a no-brainer for certain conditions.

Team New Zealand Win 35th America's Cup

New Zealand have won the America's cup for the second time as challenger. It's been four long years since their massive choke in San Francisco.

Listen to Peter Montgomery's iconic call of the final race http://www.radiosport.co.nz/on-demand/audio/pj-montgomery-calling-the-americas-cup-win/

Larry Ellison of Oracle got this one wrong. It may have been a mistake taking the competition to Bermuda. But stand in Ellison's shoes for a minute and see things from his perspective. He's one man and his billions up against the combined mass of the oil rich United Arab Emirates and the world's biggest milk products exporter (New Zealand). He probably sees himself as the little guy. Okay, stop feeling sorry for him now as he pretty much stole the Cup from Alinghi after the Swiss stole the cup from New Zealand. I say stole as all the aforementioned teams survive by buying Kiwis.

A relief then as the NZ government are going to have to spend money and that'll be good for the economy. It'll be good to see the Italians back in Auckland as the challenger of record. When they were last in town they made themselves almost as popular as the home team.

Afterthought: Will someone make the NZ skipper Glenn Ashby Prime Minister. Thank you. He's the type of guy NZ needs leading. Men would even follow the man into battle.

That Weak New Zealand Prime Minister

The events over the last few days illustrate what I've been saying for a long time, the New Zealand Prime Minister Simon "Bill" English is weak. He can't even get his story straight over the Todd Barclay matter. Who cares about what Todd Barclay did? No-one is the answer, but it does matter that the PM lacks a spine and can't stand straight. Do we have to put up with him for another three years? Please National Party caucus, overthrow him and let's move on.