Iran: Who Do They Like?

A bit of prejudice here and huge generalisations, but today I was explaining to someone the situation with Iran. In the last 25 years they've developed a lot. Everyone remembers the 1980's, but that's not Iran today. All those old warmongers are retired or long since passed away. 

I explained it like this: Iran looks at its neighbours, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan can be an exercise in trying to get along at the best of times. Pakistan are OK but a bit of a problem too. Armenia shares very little in common, and Azerbaijan relations are frosty as Iran competes for the Caspian Sea against them. Turkey is distrusted, but Iran has grudging respect and needs them for stuff. Iraq is a cousin, maybe even a half-brother, the border is a colonial invention.

Of the major powers, China is a long way away and a source of nice food and cheap stuff, especially electronics. But they're too far away and too different to be fully trusted. Russians are not liked at all and deeply distrusted. Even more hated are the British, they are despised. How so? Look back at the Great Game played out throughout the 1800's. The two Great Powers competed for the region. Britain came out of it controlling Persia, now known as Iran (Afghanistan was found to be uncontrollable). In the early 20th Century, Britain formed the Anglo-Persian Oil Company and began stealing their oil. That company is today branded as BP - you may have heard of it.

But Americans, Iranians quite like them. They hate their government but they like their people. That's why Iranians when moving overseas head to Los Angeles. See Shahs of Sunset as a reality TV show looking at the phenomenon. It was hilarious, almost as good as the Kardashians.

Basically, Iran would like to be left alone, and then they'd start buying American stuff. That's because Americans tend to make stuff that works and it almost always turns up on time. Think Boeing and Caterpillar tractors. 

Long term, how do Iranians see themselves living? Deep down I believe they desire to be Italy, just not the religion. So, they'd end up living like Istanbul instead. 

Anyway, the better approach for the US is to bring Israel to heel and the US start doing business with Iran. 

Syria - Deals Were Done

The best explanation I've seen of recent events in Syria, is it was about the natural gas resources of the Persian Gulf. There were two proposals for pipelines to Europe; one was to take gas from Iran, through Iraq, then Syria, and then under the sea to Greece. The other was to establish a pipeline from Qatar, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and then to Bulgaria. 

Assad favoured the Iranian pipeline, while his adversaries backed that from Qatar. Clearly, Assad chose the wrong option. From a business standpoint, both proposals lower the cost of gas in Europe as they avoid using tankers, and cut out Russia as a source of supply. 

Meanwhile, Russia has won in Ukraine, so they give up Syria and take a large chunk of the former. Zelensky will be fuming. Russia has been working on building up in Libya, and so they'll presumably move their presence in the Med to that country, and gain a better location, being able to effectively cut the sea in half, rather the way Britain did when it controlled Malta. 

I have noticed the propaganda news pieces coming out of Syria, they are laughable; al Jazeera are particularly bad, anyone would think the new regime in Syria were choir boys and everything is sweetness and light.

Joe Biden: Simpleton

The Biden administration is out of its depth, they've released a statement on the Armenian genocide. You can read it here. 

Why is this a stupid thing to do? The Ottoman Empire was behind the atrocities. They have long since been discarded into the dustbin of history. The sick man of Europe lost the First World War and ceased to exist. 

What rose in its place were several states, amongst them modern day Turkey. Implicit in this Biden statement is an attack on Turkey which took no part in the events described. Took no part because they didn't even exist. 

Armenia may rejoice now, but they're jammed between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia. They've just lost a war with Azerbaijan, and have tense relations with Turkey. This cannot end well for Armenia; Azerbaijan will likely intensify pressure to regain territory it lost at the end of the USSR, supported even more by Turkey. 

I wonder if Biden looks at the map. Turkey is a NATO member and effectively controls access to the Black Sea. It has its own tense relationship with Russia. Russia is clearly wanting to reclaim the Ukraine and to this end is amassing troops along its border and will close the Sea of Azov for naval vessels for the next six months. If things kick off, will Turkey care, or will they support Russia and close the Black Sea? Basically, if all that happens, the Ukraine is jiggered. 

When Biden was elected I warned he was a warmonger, and it turns out a very foolish one at that. I cannot see how the US can come out of this ahead. The Armenian community in California may be satisfied, but that's about it. Armenia itself could well be on its way to receiving a hiding and the Ukraine may well lose its fully independent status. All of these outcomes fuelled by such a stupid statement by Joe Biden.

NZ v Turkey @ FIBA World Cup 2019

Classification rounds: New Zealand beat Turkey 102-101. Does NZ understand how huge that is? Turkey are really good and NZ just beat them. This NZ team can score, only three players failed to get on the score sheet. C'mon NZ government, fund some proper development for these guys, NZ can be top 10 in the world at this rate.

Turkey vs Holland

Turkey and the Netherlands (aka Holland) can't go to war because they don't share a boundary and otherwise have no real ability to attack each other. So their recent spat is just that, or is it electioneering on both sides. Want to bet the Dutch PM and the Turkish President have actually had a talk on the phone and concocted the dispute to help one another out? Hmm, at the very least they're probably seeing the need to keep kicking the can down the road.