Recent reports are coming in that indicate Ukraine's forces are collapsing. Russia has made major breakthroughs, destroying Ukrainian strongholds in the process. If this is true, then expect large numbers of Russian troops being funneled through these weak points.
If Zelensky, his mates and army officers suddenly make a bolt for the door, then I think Ukraine would have about a week beyond that.
How did we get to this point?
To begin with, the West lied to itself about this conflict. It believed such a war was winnable, when it could never be. Then the West continued lying about literally everything. I'll run through some of the lies:
- Russia is running out of armour
- Russia cannot get ammunition
- Russian forces are being decimated
- Sanctions are working
- Revolution is imminent within Russia
- Putin does not have a solid grip on power
- and on and on.
The reality is much more complicated. Sanctions had an effect in the first year, but thereafter Russia simply found ways to circumvent the restrictions or substitute with other goods. Russia has suffered significant numbers of casualties, but Ukraine has suffered similarly. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now 43, and women are being sent to the front. Meanwhile, Russia has not even fully mobilised.
Russian equipment appears suited to the task at hand. Their kit isn't flashy or overly techie, but it gets the job done. Meanwhile, NATO gear has proven to be twitchy, unreliable or unfit for the conditions. An example is with the German Leopard 2 main battle tank being withdrawn from frontline service.
The West is guilty of hubris and is being punished for it.
Anyway, here's a video to keep you up to date:
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