Trade Deals

Is it believable to think countries are lining up to sign bilateral trade deals with the United States. Wouldn't this turn the World Trade Organisation and all previous free trade deals on their heads? 

Take Australia as an example, they have a free trade deal with the US, but that appears to now be worthless.

New Zealand's prime minister, Christopher Luxon has rushed to London to talk to the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer. No doubt, this is so the pair can get their stories straight. For New Zealand, there is a lot at stake; the UK is NZ's eighth largest trade partner, with much deeper cultural links, while China is NZ's largest trade partner by far. NZ has a large trade surplus with China, meaning China buys more from NZ than it sells to it. A larger trade surplus than exists with the US, and China isn't complaining. 

Those countries NZ has a large trade surplus with are: China, USA, Taiwan, Canada, Indonesia and India. My advice would be to wait out the current Trump administration, they're unlikely to last forever and any trade deals appear whimsical to say the least. Any trade partner has to be reliable, and the US has proven they're unreliable.

What do I think will likely happen? NZ will sit on the fence but buckle to US demands, thus wrecking the entire NZ economy. Australia will buckle sooner and they'll go downhill as a result. The UK will buckle immediately. 

But, what I hope will happen is that countries grow a pair and stand their ground. If they don't stand their ground, the US will be emboldened to make further demands.

China has warned any trade deals with the US which also attack China, will result in retaliation. That would be justified in my opinion. Any country rushing to sign a trade deal with the US, under terms dictated by the US, are taking a huge risk if they have a large share of their trade with China. 

Effect of Tariffs

Law firm, England & Knight have put up the following page summarising the full effect of China's counter-tariffs:

https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/04/chinas-comprehensive-retaliation-against-us-tariffs

Note that Red States will bear the full impact of effective bans on poultry, pork, wheat and soybeans. China can easily replace these supply lines with output from Brazil, Argentina, New Zealand and Australia.

Further, Canada and Mexico are still where they are:

Tariff Pause - Confusing

I'm struggling to keep up with Trump's latest moves, which appear increasingly unhinged. Conflicting reports say that Canada and Mexico are unchanged, I don't know exactly what applies to steel and aluminium, or cars for that matter. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/trump-announces-90-day-tariff-pause-for-at-least-some-countries.html

And then, out of this confusion, is it possible the White House is making money out of it?

JD Vance Calls Chinese Peasants

Oh no, he did what? This is not going to end well. What it openly says to all of Asia is, that's what they really think of us. And they'll react accordingly.

Trump Crashing Global Trade

Here's a YouTube video where the bloke thinks there's not a lot of thought gone into the current trade war, started by the US. If there is any sense to it, then, possibly, it is intended to force a renegotiation of any trade rules and relationships that do exist. The idea being to skew those new deals in favour of the US.

My own idea is that this government of billionaires are intentionally crashing the market. They make money short-selling on the drop, and then buy up entire industries when it bottoms out. They'll end up owning everything this way, and for cents on the dollar. If this is even close to their thinking, that is very dangerous indeed as it may become the French Revolution all over again.

What authorities and elites fail to remember, is that the thin blue line is a very thin line when the proverbial hits the fan. 

Trump Tariff List

Here is a list of what each country faces. Brexit seems to have avoided the worst since it has left the EU. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1jxrnl9xe2o

10% baseline for all countries, with the following only facing that baseline rate (amongst others):

• United Kingdom
• Singapore
• Brazil
• Australia
• New Zealand
• Turkey
• Colombia
• Argentina
• El Salvador
• United Arab Emirates
• Saudi Arabia

Punitive rates, as follows on some countries:

• European Union: 20%
• China: 54%
• Vietnam: 46%
• Thailand: 36%
• Japan: 24%
• Cambodia: 49%
• South Africa: 30%
• Taiwan: 32%

Plus; 25% tariff on all car imports to the US.

Canada and Mexico have nothing added to the measures already introduced against them.

China's Shipbuilding Industry - Problem?

The US Trump administration have announced new measures intended to promote its own domestic shipbuilding industry. One aspect of this, Chinese vessels will be charged extra for berthing at US ports. But, will this have the effect desired, and if it does, what impact will this have on the economy of the US?

Check this out here: https://www.reuters.com/business/trumps-shipbuilding-plan-could-upend-ocean-cargo-industry-companies-warn-2025-03-07/

The main effect will be to load costs onto American consumers. Worldwide, it could lead to lower costs as Chinese vessels may start to avoid US ports, leading to more capacity available elsewhere, resulting in lower rates for shipping to non-US ports. It's so complicated, it is very hard to predict the result, but one thing I can say for certain: it does not make sense to make merchant vessels in the US as they'd be much more expensive and that's even if you can get one built. There aren't enough workers in the sector to supply many more ships being built.

And then, China won't sit around doing nothing about this. Like their recent stopping importing US lumber, they may target other goods, or refuse to export key minerals to the US, further skewing markets. Basically, the US consumer pays, and US workers will lose their jobs, just so a few extra merchant marine ships get built. This would make the real cost of building a US merchant ship, 50 times greater than competitors.

China has also started buying port operations around the world. But, something it hasn't done is open military bases. So, are these civil operations a problem, or is the investment beneficial?

The following are two videos outlining some of the issues. However, given the US is now setting out to alienate its closest neighbours and allies, dealing with China seems sensible as they aren't as capricious.

Who Pays a Tariff?

I've found a useful explanation on how tariffs actually work. I don't talk about myself all that much, but something I can say is that I've done a lot of import and export, with goods heading all over the world. I find myself agreeing with the man from shoemaker, Deer Stags.

I now notice talk of the US soon to impose a worldwide 10% tariff on imports. But, I wonder how much of these moves from Donald Trump are actually targeting those who have criticised him, it's kind of convenient that the leaders of Mexico and Canada are both opponents of Trump. Using that logic, the UK must now be in the crosshairs since the UK Labour party sent activists to the US to actively campaign for Kamala Harris. That may come back to bight Keir Starmer on the arse.

The Problem is Worldwide

Elon Musk has accurately outlined the problem. In a leaked internal email to staff, he said he had a 'super bad feeling' about the economy:

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/428840

Then, on Twitter he has previously stated:

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/428451

"It has been raining money on fools for too long. Some bankruptcies need to happen," ..... "Also, all the Covid stay-at-home stuff has tricked people into thinking that you don't actually need to work hard. Rude awakening inbound!"

I agree with Musk on both counts. I have frequently said the bailouts due to the GFC have entrenched incompetence. Businesses should not be too big to fail. If they fail, let the bargain hunters devour them, and out of the change grow stronger. Yes, this disrupts lives, but look at where we are at right now. Things are going to be worse.

We've been living in a huge government-led Ponzi scheme, created using the taxpayers money. This couldn't be sustained so they manufactured a pandemic, or scamdemic as I like to call it. The response was planned to crash the world economy. They, and by 'they' I'm talking about the 'powers-that-be' for want of a better term, didn't care about how many people were killed, all they cared about was saving their own scrawny necks and the corrupt companies underneath them.

The 'Great Reset' is an arse covering exercise. 

But it didn't work well enough as people didn't 'drink the tea'. Turns out the people are not that stupid. Well, except silly countries like Australia and New Zealand, they're very silly. What to do then? Need for war. So, NATO prods the bear - Russia. Now, famine looms in countries relying on Russian and Ukrainian food, while energy prices soar. Will profits from high oil prices be returned to the people for better healthcare and education? That was me kidding you, you can stop laughing as we know that will never happen.

Basically, what I'm outlining is a massive stitch-up. The only way to correct this is to remove those in power. We need new governments with new ideas. The current crop are trying to destroy you and ultimately kill you if they can. Don't let them.

The War on Food

That's right, the world may starve. This isn't a drill, this is very real:

https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-05-26-global-wheat-war-now-underway.html

As one of the world’s top producers of wheat, Russia in many ways holds the keys to the global food supply. And unless the Biden regime stops its futile crusade against the country, much of the world will end up starving to death.

The corporate-controlled media wants us to believe that Vladimir Putin is the culprit, but the reality is that Joe Biden and his handlers are tearing down global trade in a hissy fit response to Putin’s takedown of the deep state in Ukraine.

Both Ukraine and Russia have cut off most grain exports in order to protect their own people, as has India and Kazakhstan. These protectionist measures are hurting other countries such as Egypt that rely on grain imports from Europe and Russia.