Rhetoric for War

I've noticed that as the Russo-Ukraine War goes into its fifth week, the level of rhetoric from NATO and the rest of the West has amplified. It seems the West is itching for a war with Russia. We need cool heads here, a war with Russia would not go the way people think, principally because it would bring in Belarus and the Stans on the side of Russia. This is a formidable lineup and it's not as though they have to go far to get involved.

Ukraine cannot win this war. What is winning exactly? In this context, for Ukraine winning is not losing. But if we look at the map it becomes easy to see why they cannot avoid losing. That's because they cannot get supply, or relieve pressure on besieged cities.

Here are my three main reasons explaining why Ukraine loses:

1. The relative losses matter NOT absolute losses of equipment

I swear watching the western MSM talk you'd think Ukraine was conquering all. You need something to compare things with and Russia starts with a much larger stock. It doesn't matter if Russia loses two pieces of equipment or even five pieces of equipment for every one Ukraine loses. Over time, what happens is Ukraine runs out and Russia is left standing. I noticed Zelensky is now asking for planes and tanks. That tells me a lot, Ukraine are running out.

2. Fuel and ammunition

Russia are targeting fuel and ammunition depots. Earlier in the conflict, they were taking vehicles out when they found them, but now by using drones they track military vehicles back to the refueling depots often hidden in forest or industrial buildings, and then take that target out. Ukraine must start running out of fuel. There is some evidence to support this view as it is not hard to find abandoned Ukrainian equipment.

3. Food

Crops need to be planted about now. This won't happen on such a wide scale and so food will become scarce. An army marches on its stomach. 

These three critical areas mean Ukraine cannot win. I'll give it six months and Russia will control Ukraine.

Rather than talk up war, diplomatic efforts must be made to bring the hostilities to an end. This should have been happening before the invasion began. Why did UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres not visit Putin? Why did NATO not visit Putin? This seems to be a massive failure of diplomacy.