Ukraine: Russia's Phase 2

I don't believe any of it. The other day, Russia said its phase 1 of the invasion of Ukraine was over and phase 2 would begin. Its focus would be on the Donbass region of the east.

I think this announcement was an obvious distraction. Here are my four phases of the Russia invasion of Ukraine; I may be wrong here, it's just how I see things panning out:

Phase 1: invade and encircle cities. Use special forces to secure critical areas, conscripts do the rest, the key being to bypass areas of most resistance. Get west of the Dnieper river and hold.

Phase 2: ramp up the use of more sophisticated air and sea launched missiles, targeting fuel and ammunition supplies. Wrap up encircled cities and when done, take those forces and push west. The goal here is to not leave pockets of resistance behind and to leave nothing mobile moving.

Phase 3: From Kyiv head south, and from Kherson head north. This closes the trap. From the east, punch through. Amphibious landing south of Odessa, push north-east. Supply Transnistria and they join in and push north.

Phase 4: Belarus may enter the war and cut off the border with Poland. Russian forces once fully securing the Dnieper river, push west to join Belarus. If Belarus has not entered the war, Russia just does this on its own.

Result: All of Ukraine is now under effective control. Transnistria is recognised and connected. All of the Donbass are merged into Russia. The rest of Ukraine is de-militarised and a puppet regime is installed. 

Edit to add @ 29/3/2022; I notice reports of Russia giving up ground around Kyiv and Kherson. This is consistent with my thinking. Russia appear to be pulling out some regiments and I expect they'll send them east. When Mariupol falls, that will also free up about 20,000 battle hardened troops. Russia in having this many fronts is splitting the Ukraine defenses. Ukraine must defend each attack or they lose quickly. Russia will now punch through from the east. If they do this right, almost all of the Ukraine army will be defeated in less than a month from hereon. With attacks on fuel and ammunition storage, Ukraine will simply run out of fuel and bullets.