Is there anything to fear from having Donald Trump as President?
Probably not. The office of President is balanced by Congress and the Supreme Court. If he were elected, it's likely much the same as happened to Obama would happen to Trump; that is, he'll be sidelined and distracted.
Will Trump be worse or better than Obama? That's more interesting, as the two have similarities and contrasting traits. I'll look at them here:-
Education: They were both solidly educated, with both interrupting their first degrees to complete somewhere else. In both cases they improved in moving. But intellectually they're both bright but not rocket scientists.
In their early years, Trump was subjected to discipline at a military academy while Obama hung out with the choom gang in Hawaii. Both played basketball, but Obama came off the bench, while Trump excelled in all departments athletically, not just basketball.
Trump takes the prize here then, he's more applied intellectually, and better athletically.
Writing: Both have written books. Obama's Dreams From My Father is beautifully written but I stopped half way through as Obama is a bigot, narrow minded and conceited. I didn't like him.
Trump's first book, The Art of the Deal, is entertaining and insightful. It's funny and informative. Trump comes across as a guy you'd like to know. The book contains advice every budding businessman should learn. Better learn from a book than the school of hard knocks.
Score this one for Trump.
Academic Rigour: Obama lectured in law, while Trump has hosted The Apprentice.
Score this one for Obama.
Business: Trump inherited wealth but, along with his siblings, built a major brand and real estate empire. Obama came from much humbler origins, but he did okay financially.
Score this one for Trump.
Parenting and Marriage: Trump has had multiple wives but his children are high achievers, he appears to be a really good father.
Obama's daughters are great kids too, but as yet untested. He's been married the whole time to Michelle but has been dishonest in acknowledging his previous live-in lover, an ethnic Chinese woman. Then there are persistent rumours of him being Gay. Divorce papers circulated between him and Michelle.
Trump appears a straight shooter. He marries but if it doesn't work he gets out. He's a devoted father. Obama is more devious, but he too is a good father. Score this one for Trump on the basis of his honesty.
Ethics: Both are unscrupulous. Trump's handling of the golf course in Scotland is an example. But then Obama has been accused of plagiarism or using a ghost writer.
Score this one even.
Politics: Both are neither right nor left. They tend to be populist and harness the media and social media. Obama's hope and change message was brilliant. He out organised Hillary. But Trump is learning that lesson and he's making waves.
Score this one for Obama.
Race and Sex: They're both racists and sexists. Score this one even.
Who is better? I score Trump 4, Obama 2, Even 2.
So this makes Trump potentially the better President, nothing to fear.
February 25, 2016
February 24, 2016
Britain Leaving EU
The date for a referendum on Britain leaving the EU has been set. Should Britain leave the EU and if it does, what should it do?
You know, if an alien had landed on the planet in 1939 and taken interest in the news, he'd have seen that Britain, along with its allies (most of whom comprised members of the British Empire), had declared war on Germany and the Second World War was under way. Let's say that alien then returned in 2016, he'd think that Germany and its axis won the war. Hmm?
What happened? Several things as it turns out but one in particular stands out; Neville Chamberlain died. This was a disaster for Britain as he was its most capable leader in decades. What Britain got instead was a nut-job by the name of Churchill who set about bankrupting the country.
The USA meanwhile lusted after the British Empire, it wanted one of its own. Plausibly, the entire world.
Power here ladies and gentlemen. Compare the two, 1939 and 2016, Britain and the USA. If we take just warships, minesweeper and bigger and count the numbers alone, then the Royal Navy in 1939 was a lot bigger than the US Navy today. Bear in mind that when these numbers are done, you usually get tonnage figures, and of course ships now are much bigger. So the USA looks the biggest ever, right?
Hang on a minute. A gun back in 1939 was still a gun, so power in hands is relative. What I'm saying is that Britain in 1939, was more powerful than the USA today. Heck, they owned most of the planet worth owning.
Britain won the war but lost the peace. Without Chamberlain leading the Empire, the USA took over and reconstructed Germany and Italy. France was effectively subsumed as well (bear in mind they fought on both sides), while Britain got shafted. The USA got their empire. Just look at Australia if you doubt this for one minute.
What can Britain do about this? It's too late to cry over spilt milk. The empire can't be rekindled. What they could do is look around and consider their options. Who, culturally speaking do they have the most in common with? The USA of course.
I suggest Britain leave the EU and join the USA. In time Canada would join too, as would Australia and NZ. This would bring together English common law countries with similar cultures. The Royal family could remain heads of state of Britain and the dominions, within a structure designed for it. The military, which already share on so many levels would combine.
It makes sense, Britain has more in common with the USA than France or Germany.
You know, if an alien had landed on the planet in 1939 and taken interest in the news, he'd have seen that Britain, along with its allies (most of whom comprised members of the British Empire), had declared war on Germany and the Second World War was under way. Let's say that alien then returned in 2016, he'd think that Germany and its axis won the war. Hmm?
What happened? Several things as it turns out but one in particular stands out; Neville Chamberlain died. This was a disaster for Britain as he was its most capable leader in decades. What Britain got instead was a nut-job by the name of Churchill who set about bankrupting the country.
The USA meanwhile lusted after the British Empire, it wanted one of its own. Plausibly, the entire world.
Power here ladies and gentlemen. Compare the two, 1939 and 2016, Britain and the USA. If we take just warships, minesweeper and bigger and count the numbers alone, then the Royal Navy in 1939 was a lot bigger than the US Navy today. Bear in mind that when these numbers are done, you usually get tonnage figures, and of course ships now are much bigger. So the USA looks the biggest ever, right?
Hang on a minute. A gun back in 1939 was still a gun, so power in hands is relative. What I'm saying is that Britain in 1939, was more powerful than the USA today. Heck, they owned most of the planet worth owning.
Britain won the war but lost the peace. Without Chamberlain leading the Empire, the USA took over and reconstructed Germany and Italy. France was effectively subsumed as well (bear in mind they fought on both sides), while Britain got shafted. The USA got their empire. Just look at Australia if you doubt this for one minute.
What can Britain do about this? It's too late to cry over spilt milk. The empire can't be rekindled. What they could do is look around and consider their options. Who, culturally speaking do they have the most in common with? The USA of course.
I suggest Britain leave the EU and join the USA. In time Canada would join too, as would Australia and NZ. This would bring together English common law countries with similar cultures. The Royal family could remain heads of state of Britain and the dominions, within a structure designed for it. The military, which already share on so many levels would combine.
It makes sense, Britain has more in common with the USA than France or Germany.
February 19, 2016
Apple vs FBI
It can be done. Apple can access the Farook phone.
Here's the tech blog post that outlines how to do it. Farook had an iPhone 5C, which doesn't have a secure enclave, making the task much easier:-
>>CLICK HERE<<
Quotes:
As many jailbreakers are familiar, firmware can be loaded via Device Firmware Upgrade (DFU) Mode. Once an iPhone enters DFU mode, it will accept a new firmware image over a USB cable. Before any firmware image is loaded by an iPhone, the device first checks whether the firmware has a valid signature from Apple. This signature check is why the FBI cannot load new software onto an iPhone on their own — the FBI does not have the secret keys that Apple uses to sign firmware.
<clip>
Even though this 80ms limit is not ideal, it is a massive improvement from guessing only one passcode per hour with unmodified software. After the elimination of passcode delays, it will take a half hour to recover a 4-digit PIN, hours to recover a 6-digit PIN, or years to recover a 6-character alphanumeric password. It has not been reported whether the recovered iPhone uses a 4-digit PIN or a longer, more complicated alphanumeric passcode.
<clip>
I believe it is technically feasible for Apple to comply with all of the FBI’s requests in this case. On the iPhone 5C, the passcode delay and device erasure are implemented in software and Apple can add support for peripheral devices that facilitate PIN code entry. In order to limit the risk of abuse, Apple can lock the customized version of iOS to only work on the specific recovered iPhone and perform all recovery on their own, without sharing the firmware image with the FBI.
The way I read this is, first you get access to the phone in recovery mode using a signature from Apple, then as there is no secure enclave to worry about on this model of phone, you force your way in, but the hardware key query on each attempt slows things down. It could take years without Apple's help in that regard if Farook used a long alphanumeric. If he didn't use an alphanumeric then it would take minutes or possibly hours.
Here's the tech blog post that outlines how to do it. Farook had an iPhone 5C, which doesn't have a secure enclave, making the task much easier:-
>>CLICK HERE<<
Quotes:
As many jailbreakers are familiar, firmware can be loaded via Device Firmware Upgrade (DFU) Mode. Once an iPhone enters DFU mode, it will accept a new firmware image over a USB cable. Before any firmware image is loaded by an iPhone, the device first checks whether the firmware has a valid signature from Apple. This signature check is why the FBI cannot load new software onto an iPhone on their own — the FBI does not have the secret keys that Apple uses to sign firmware.
<clip>
Even though this 80ms limit is not ideal, it is a massive improvement from guessing only one passcode per hour with unmodified software. After the elimination of passcode delays, it will take a half hour to recover a 4-digit PIN, hours to recover a 6-digit PIN, or years to recover a 6-character alphanumeric password. It has not been reported whether the recovered iPhone uses a 4-digit PIN or a longer, more complicated alphanumeric passcode.
<clip>
I believe it is technically feasible for Apple to comply with all of the FBI’s requests in this case. On the iPhone 5C, the passcode delay and device erasure are implemented in software and Apple can add support for peripheral devices that facilitate PIN code entry. In order to limit the risk of abuse, Apple can lock the customized version of iOS to only work on the specific recovered iPhone and perform all recovery on their own, without sharing the firmware image with the FBI.
The way I read this is, first you get access to the phone in recovery mode using a signature from Apple, then as there is no secure enclave to worry about on this model of phone, you force your way in, but the hardware key query on each attempt slows things down. It could take years without Apple's help in that regard if Farook used a long alphanumeric. If he didn't use an alphanumeric then it would take minutes or possibly hours.
February 18, 2016
Apple and the Farook Phone
I find the below embedded BBC article on the issues surrounding the Farook phone compelling. It is a plainly worded article on whether it is technically possible to very simply and speedily hack the Farook iPhone (it is).
This is brilliant marketing by Apple, but is it socially and ethically correct to refuse the FBI's request? I think it is fairly easy to do, won't set a precedent that will impact us all, so do it.
Apple
I won't pretend to understand all the ins and outs, but I have to say I'm impressed with Apple standing up to the FBI. I've never owned an Apple anything, but you know, now I might.
Spark or Telecom NZ
Compared to Apple these jokers are plonkers aren't they?
I've just found out they now charge a 3% surcharge on online credit card payments. Yes I got caught out, paid a monthly bill by credit card, took the embedded link which says PAY NOW. More fool me I suppose, now I'll always remember to send them a cheque by post.
This is a company that provides internet services, like broadband. They're not very clever. Reword that, they're stupid. Whatever you do, don't buy shares in Telecom NZ or Spark or whatever they call themselves.
February 11, 2016
Food
Statement of the obvious, given New Zealand is a major food producer and exporter, how come food is so expensive in this country? Hmm?
A rough back of the envelope calculation on my part to illustrate; if NZ milk producers were to give away the milk they simply throw away, and if every person in the country was to drink their equal share of it, then everyone would die of milk poisoning as they'd be drinking far too much of the stuff (no, I'm not talking about milk that's bad or has gone off).
The point I'm trying to make here is that food should be very cheap, given its limitless quantity.
Why are food retailers also allowed to be wholesalers and so set the prices other competitors must charge (by setting their own wholesale price sometimes higher than they also sell in their own supermarkets)?
I mean, come on New Zealand, wake up.
The first thing this country needs is a food revolution, vote for politicians who are not funded by the big food companies.
A rough back of the envelope calculation on my part to illustrate; if NZ milk producers were to give away the milk they simply throw away, and if every person in the country was to drink their equal share of it, then everyone would die of milk poisoning as they'd be drinking far too much of the stuff (no, I'm not talking about milk that's bad or has gone off).
The point I'm trying to make here is that food should be very cheap, given its limitless quantity.
Why are food retailers also allowed to be wholesalers and so set the prices other competitors must charge (by setting their own wholesale price sometimes higher than they also sell in their own supermarkets)?
I mean, come on New Zealand, wake up.
The first thing this country needs is a food revolution, vote for politicians who are not funded by the big food companies.
February 06, 2016
Top 20 Movies of the 1970's
You hear a lot about which movies were the biggest hits of the 1970's. This was pre Avatar and Titanic, so there is a lot of artistic license exercised when talking about the period.
I looked the figures up and found the gross box office worldwide for each movie. The figures I have are for the twelve months following the year of release. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the order stays the same over time, statistically speaking.
Without further ado, here are the top 20 (click on image to enlarge):-
I looked the figures up and found the gross box office worldwide for each movie. The figures I have are for the twelve months following the year of release. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the order stays the same over time, statistically speaking.
Without further ado, here are the top 20 (click on image to enlarge):-
January 31, 2016
GFC: Why We Are Screwed
I have implied in posts on here, an opinion of where I think things are headed. However, until explaining to one of my children what I am actually on about, I realised I hadn't blogged about my views in full.
Okay, so the GFC, aka the Global Financial Crisis. This started happening straight after the dotcom bubble burst. Things were getting out of hand, banks were lending irresponsibly, blah de blah, you know the rest.
In 2008 things got very bad and the property market crashed, everything came tumbling down. Small businesses were screwed, they had their overdrafts called in, banks could no longer trust one another, the system was broken.
In stepped big mother governments the world over. They ruled that some were too big to fail and bailed those precious few out. Then they started quantitative easing to avoid further collapse. Retired folks saw their incomes plummet. The oldies and small businesses were the biggest casualties globally.
What were the alternatives? Well, a short sharp shock would have worked fine.
What happened is governments rewarded the ineffective, incompetent, stupid and weak. These governments are run by venal and malfeasant cowards who buckled and bailed out their old-school mates. What has resulted from that lame decision-making, has been eight years of bumping along the bottom.
I'll explain this another way. Imagine you break your leg and you are delivered to the hospital by an ambulance that is pedal powered. At the hospital the doctors take a look and decide to not properly knit your bones back together, instead finding it cheaper to have your leg grow back crooked and keep you on painkillers for a few years as their mates own the drug manufacturers and pharmacies.
Get the idea?
Or would it be better for the doctor to say, 'this is going to hurt,' AHHHH, fix your leg properly and have you walking again free of pain in three months?
Hmm? Well the crooked leg and painkiller example is what we got.
What does all this mean? It means we are royally screwed. Governments throughout the Western world are telling us they avoided another Great Depression (they say). How about, what they actually did was put us on a path to extinction. That's what I think.
I've had people tell me that technology cannot be lost. Oh yeah? Tell that to the people living through the Dark Ages, just after the end of the Roman empire. That's where we're headed. I won't live to see this happen, and neither will you, but I think it is inevitable. Crazed loons like ISIL are going to be running the world and they'll destroy everything. This will happen because we promoted stupid and dishonest people and gave up being vigilant and prepared to protect our hard fought freedoms.
What we have now is not capitalism. In a capitalist system you have the absolute right to go bust. No-one is too big to fail. If you promote stupid and dishonest people and entrench them in power, you end up with complete devastation.
Okay, so the GFC, aka the Global Financial Crisis. This started happening straight after the dotcom bubble burst. Things were getting out of hand, banks were lending irresponsibly, blah de blah, you know the rest.
In 2008 things got very bad and the property market crashed, everything came tumbling down. Small businesses were screwed, they had their overdrafts called in, banks could no longer trust one another, the system was broken.
In stepped big mother governments the world over. They ruled that some were too big to fail and bailed those precious few out. Then they started quantitative easing to avoid further collapse. Retired folks saw their incomes plummet. The oldies and small businesses were the biggest casualties globally.
What were the alternatives? Well, a short sharp shock would have worked fine.
What happened is governments rewarded the ineffective, incompetent, stupid and weak. These governments are run by venal and malfeasant cowards who buckled and bailed out their old-school mates. What has resulted from that lame decision-making, has been eight years of bumping along the bottom.
I'll explain this another way. Imagine you break your leg and you are delivered to the hospital by an ambulance that is pedal powered. At the hospital the doctors take a look and decide to not properly knit your bones back together, instead finding it cheaper to have your leg grow back crooked and keep you on painkillers for a few years as their mates own the drug manufacturers and pharmacies.
Get the idea?
Or would it be better for the doctor to say, 'this is going to hurt,' AHHHH, fix your leg properly and have you walking again free of pain in three months?
Hmm? Well the crooked leg and painkiller example is what we got.
What does all this mean? It means we are royally screwed. Governments throughout the Western world are telling us they avoided another Great Depression (they say). How about, what they actually did was put us on a path to extinction. That's what I think.
I've had people tell me that technology cannot be lost. Oh yeah? Tell that to the people living through the Dark Ages, just after the end of the Roman empire. That's where we're headed. I won't live to see this happen, and neither will you, but I think it is inevitable. Crazed loons like ISIL are going to be running the world and they'll destroy everything. This will happen because we promoted stupid and dishonest people and gave up being vigilant and prepared to protect our hard fought freedoms.
What we have now is not capitalism. In a capitalist system you have the absolute right to go bust. No-one is too big to fail. If you promote stupid and dishonest people and entrench them in power, you end up with complete devastation.
January 28, 2016
Cook Strait Tunnel
How about this idea for a New Zealand Cook Strait road tunnel:-
The route: in the below illustration, the approach over land from the South Island is from Picton to just before West Head (subject to survey ).
Possible methods of construction:-
My idea would differ from the above illustration. I would both tether the tube to the bottom and where this is not feasible, due to depth, use submerged buoys; the tube would then hang below.
Power for the tunnel could be generated by tides both ways, turbines could be mounted on top of the main tubes carrying services. I would have three tubes; one dedicated northbound, the other dedicated southbound, with a service tube carrying maintenance, power and cabling.
There is no rail tube, sorry, there just isn't enough rail freight for it to be viable. Rail could use skeletal trailers to bring their freight by road, maybe allowing road trains, they'd then transfer their loads back to rail.
The service tunnel, however, could replace the main inter-island power cable, carry fibre optics, along with the tidal electric generation turbines.
The big cost is in the engineering of the tunnel tubes, and the approaches by road through the Marlborough Sounds and in the North Island. There I'd have the road going north, coming out at Porirua, and another coming in the back of Wellington at about Karori. The Porirua link would speed traffic north to Auckland faster.
Think of the efficiency gains this would generate for the New Zealand economy and the employment it would create.
The route: in the below illustration, the approach over land from the South Island is from Picton to just before West Head (subject to survey ).
My idea would differ from the above illustration. I would both tether the tube to the bottom and where this is not feasible, due to depth, use submerged buoys; the tube would then hang below.
Power for the tunnel could be generated by tides both ways, turbines could be mounted on top of the main tubes carrying services. I would have three tubes; one dedicated northbound, the other dedicated southbound, with a service tube carrying maintenance, power and cabling.
There is no rail tube, sorry, there just isn't enough rail freight for it to be viable. Rail could use skeletal trailers to bring their freight by road, maybe allowing road trains, they'd then transfer their loads back to rail.
The service tunnel, however, could replace the main inter-island power cable, carry fibre optics, along with the tidal electric generation turbines.
The big cost is in the engineering of the tunnel tubes, and the approaches by road through the Marlborough Sounds and in the North Island. There I'd have the road going north, coming out at Porirua, and another coming in the back of Wellington at about Karori. The Porirua link would speed traffic north to Auckland faster.
Think of the efficiency gains this would generate for the New Zealand economy and the employment it would create.
January 22, 2016
Tesla Cars Bad Customer Service
Ever wondered what it would be like to deal with the people at Tesla? Wonder no more as I've just read a horror story.
>>You Just Knew Tesla Was Crap<<
Some excerpts....
Elon Musk, get out of that car and let the man buy the damn thing.
>>You Just Knew Tesla Was Crap<<
Some excerpts....
On the evening of January 7, the day before I was to receive my car, Kevin called me to explain he had a call in with the Office of the CEO at Tesla and was working with his team in Tesla to resolve a problem that had come up — their CEO, Elon Musk, had taken my car and was using it as his personal vehicle to test a new version of autopilot. Even worse, he said he could see all the calls I had made into the Orlando delivery center this past week, and no one was taking my calls because no one knew what to do.
......
Tesla has a strange way of communicating with customers I think is best described as customer service vaporware. That is, they spend more time trying to create the illusion of customer service, rather than actually providing it. There is no mechanism for them to get feedback, as I tried to provide, so its difficult to see how they can improve if they don’t know where they are going wrong.
Elon Musk, get out of that car and let the man buy the damn thing.
January 21, 2016
Ninth Planet Discovered
In the truth being stranger than fiction department, or truth finally catches up with fiction, a ninth planet beyond Neptune appears highly likely....
>>Click Here<<
The solar system appears to have a new ninth planet. Today, two scientists announced evidence that a body nearly the size of Neptune—but as yet unseen—orbits the sun every 15,000 years. During the solar system’s infancy 4.5 billion years ago, they say, the giant planet was knocked out of the planet-forming region near the sun. Slowed down by gas, the planet settled into a distant elliptical orbit, where it still lurks today.
Have you read Jules Verne's short story In The Year 2889? In this story the planet orbits the sun every 1,311 years. Written a long time ago, it's starting to look prescient.
>>Click Here<<
The solar system appears to have a new ninth planet. Today, two scientists announced evidence that a body nearly the size of Neptune—but as yet unseen—orbits the sun every 15,000 years. During the solar system’s infancy 4.5 billion years ago, they say, the giant planet was knocked out of the planet-forming region near the sun. Slowed down by gas, the planet settled into a distant elliptical orbit, where it still lurks today.
Have you read Jules Verne's short story In The Year 2889? In this story the planet orbits the sun every 1,311 years. Written a long time ago, it's starting to look prescient.
January 20, 2016
Azealia Banks On Cultural Smudging
Interesting interview here of Azealia Banks. She rips into Iggy Azalea which is funny in itself, but also; she very intelligently describes cultural smudging. Another way of looking at it would be to describe cultural appropriation.
Her music is worth checking out. It's beautiful, confronting, brilliant. The interview is quite long, give it a chance though, you have to just listen to how the interview unfolds. The DJ on the mic, wow he's a good interviewer, they should teach his technique at broadcasting school.
But will her career implode or stall? I hope not, she's good.
Her music is worth checking out. It's beautiful, confronting, brilliant. The interview is quite long, give it a chance though, you have to just listen to how the interview unfolds. The DJ on the mic, wow he's a good interviewer, they should teach his technique at broadcasting school.
But will her career implode or stall? I hope not, she's good.
January 19, 2016
Three Industrials Compared
I'm usually loath to do any stock picking publicly as it could be construed as some kind of investment advice, which I never provide. Never. Not even when I'm in a good mood.
Anyway, that said, I thought it useful to compare three industrials. Some you may have heard of, others you may not have. They're all great companies but any investor had better have their eyes wide open when buying shares in them.
1. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)
They're a good dividend payer but sales have been lagging which may impact their ability to buy back shares and pay dividends in future. The sector is undergoing a recession, and CAT have begun restructuring - long overdue.
They're the main brand of construction equipment worldwide, with loyal customers, often said to have CAT yellow coloured blood in their veins. They're strong in infrastructure, so if you think your government is going to spend on roads and bridges, then these guys win from that activity.
Currently their share price is falling, and getting cheaper by the day. They're now in the buy category. You buy and hold these shares, never sell them. Why would you?
2. Joy Global (NYSE:JOY)
I often see Joy Global mentioned alongside CAT. Don't be fooled though, they're not nearly as big and rarely a direct competitor. Joy's main line is underground mining equipment and surface mining equipment such as face shovels and draglines, along with breakers, blast hole drills and assorted items.
They're losing money right now. If you're a risk taker then they're worth a look. Problem is though they're exposed to industries that are cyclical and right now those industries are in the doldrums. This company will take a while to come right.
3. John Deere - Deere & Company (NYSE:DE)
A competitor for CAT and also into Agriculture and Turf. A solid performer but without quite the loyalty of CAT customers, the reputation or the global reach. They're no longer as cheap relative to earnings as CAT which is kind of interesting. They're not as big a dividend payer. Like the other two, sales and earnings are declining. They're a solid company though, it's hard to imagine you losing your money.
(Note: These opinions constitute information only and do not constitute investment advice. If you need investment advice on these stocks or anything else for that matter, talk to your recognised and professional investment adviser. Better still, do your own research and act on it confident in your own ability.)
Anyway, that said, I thought it useful to compare three industrials. Some you may have heard of, others you may not have. They're all great companies but any investor had better have their eyes wide open when buying shares in them.
1. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)
They're a good dividend payer but sales have been lagging which may impact their ability to buy back shares and pay dividends in future. The sector is undergoing a recession, and CAT have begun restructuring - long overdue.
They're the main brand of construction equipment worldwide, with loyal customers, often said to have CAT yellow coloured blood in their veins. They're strong in infrastructure, so if you think your government is going to spend on roads and bridges, then these guys win from that activity.
Currently their share price is falling, and getting cheaper by the day. They're now in the buy category. You buy and hold these shares, never sell them. Why would you?
2. Joy Global (NYSE:JOY)
I often see Joy Global mentioned alongside CAT. Don't be fooled though, they're not nearly as big and rarely a direct competitor. Joy's main line is underground mining equipment and surface mining equipment such as face shovels and draglines, along with breakers, blast hole drills and assorted items.
They're losing money right now. If you're a risk taker then they're worth a look. Problem is though they're exposed to industries that are cyclical and right now those industries are in the doldrums. This company will take a while to come right.
3. John Deere - Deere & Company (NYSE:DE)
A competitor for CAT and also into Agriculture and Turf. A solid performer but without quite the loyalty of CAT customers, the reputation or the global reach. They're no longer as cheap relative to earnings as CAT which is kind of interesting. They're not as big a dividend payer. Like the other two, sales and earnings are declining. They're a solid company though, it's hard to imagine you losing your money.
(Note: These opinions constitute information only and do not constitute investment advice. If you need investment advice on these stocks or anything else for that matter, talk to your recognised and professional investment adviser. Better still, do your own research and act on it confident in your own ability.)
January 17, 2016
The Big Short
I went to see the movie, The Big Short, today and I liked it. It's been nominated for an Academy Award for best picture and you know what? It might just win it.
The best performance is by Steve Carell playing a punctilious fund manager called Mark Baum, a character based on the real Steve Eisman. What I really like about this guy is he doesn't trust anything or anyone. He interviews people about the impending collapse and sends his staff to check out houses to find them empty and in arrears. It's all good fun, though I'm left scratching my head a little with the film's message; that strippers shouldn't be allowed to own five houses. I dunno, their money is as good as anyone's I would have thought, but hey, with 5% down, that's maybe not so good.
I'm rambling. Anyway there are other characters, such as Michael Burry of Silicon Investor (SI) message board fame. He's a contrarian, who I think fancies himself as a value investor. I've seen him post on SI recommending John Deere, so I suppose he is, but he most certainly is contrarian. The thinking of a contrarian goes that, if everyone thinks something is a good idea, then it almost certainly isn't and you should be doing the opposite.
Then these two young guns who operate a boutique 'garage band' fund team up with an old-timer played by Brad Pitt. The young guns invest in options on anything that predicts bad things will happen. Mostly these options are cheap and so when bad does happen, they clean up. Risky I'd say. But heh. They're backed into the big leagues by Brad Pitt's character, a New Age capitalist cum philosopher.
Last but by no means least is the person who narrates the movie. This guy is an operator out to make the bucks, driven by the main chance.
What's interesting is that the only people who meet and do business together are the young guns with Brad Pitt, and in another group the Steve Carell camp working with the main chancer. Other than that they all operate alone and often against the grain.
Of course the lovely Marisa Tomei pops in which is always pleasing. She's hot. For the younger members of the audience the cute Selena Gomez turns up to explain what a synthetic CDO is.
I fully recommend The Big Short.
The best performance is by Steve Carell playing a punctilious fund manager called Mark Baum, a character based on the real Steve Eisman. What I really like about this guy is he doesn't trust anything or anyone. He interviews people about the impending collapse and sends his staff to check out houses to find them empty and in arrears. It's all good fun, though I'm left scratching my head a little with the film's message; that strippers shouldn't be allowed to own five houses. I dunno, their money is as good as anyone's I would have thought, but hey, with 5% down, that's maybe not so good.
I'm rambling. Anyway there are other characters, such as Michael Burry of Silicon Investor (SI) message board fame. He's a contrarian, who I think fancies himself as a value investor. I've seen him post on SI recommending John Deere, so I suppose he is, but he most certainly is contrarian. The thinking of a contrarian goes that, if everyone thinks something is a good idea, then it almost certainly isn't and you should be doing the opposite.
Then these two young guns who operate a boutique 'garage band' fund team up with an old-timer played by Brad Pitt. The young guns invest in options on anything that predicts bad things will happen. Mostly these options are cheap and so when bad does happen, they clean up. Risky I'd say. But heh. They're backed into the big leagues by Brad Pitt's character, a New Age capitalist cum philosopher.
Last but by no means least is the person who narrates the movie. This guy is an operator out to make the bucks, driven by the main chance.
What's interesting is that the only people who meet and do business together are the young guns with Brad Pitt, and in another group the Steve Carell camp working with the main chancer. Other than that they all operate alone and often against the grain.
Of course the lovely Marisa Tomei pops in which is always pleasing. She's hot. For the younger members of the audience the cute Selena Gomez turns up to explain what a synthetic CDO is.
I fully recommend The Big Short.
January 11, 2016
American Football
I know next to to nothing about it. I couldn't tell you who the current Super Bowl champion is. That said I've been watching a few games, trying to understand the game. It appears to have several limitations which means it will never gain wide acceptance internationally. It can be entertaining though, I enjoyed watching the Bengals choke the other day. These NFL players seem to lack the ability to protect the ball when in possession of it, you'd think these highly paid athletes would be able to do that, but they cannot.
The game is similar to Rugby Union, but more similar to Rugby League.
Where do I think American football goes wrong? There doesn't appear any incentive to keep the ball in play or to make play continuous. This has me scratching my head.
I've come up with some rule changes to address this. I've not tried to change the rules too much, instead tweaking to make playing the ball, and playing the ball with the foot important - hence foot-ball.
Rule changes, in order of importance:-
1. The Quarterback cannot intentionally throw the ball out. The ball must be kicked or run out or passed to another player or kept in hand. This makes skill a component of Quarterback play.
2. The ball must be touched down when a touchdown is scored. If the ball simply crosses the plain the score is worth 4 points.
3. Play does not end when a knee goes down. This has to be the silliest thing I've seen. Play only ends when the ball touches the ground (fairer). This way, both players can contest the ball, and tacklers must hold the player and get him down, while if not held the player with the ball can commence running again (so long as the ball did not touch the ground).
If a player is held up and is not advancing then it can be called ball grounded.
I wouldn't allow intentional ball grounding unless a touchdown. Intentional grounding - the equivalent of taking a knee - would be a penalty and loss of possession.
In fact a lot of penalties would result in loss of possession; such as, time wasting, foul play, and so on.
4. Punts must always be returned until a tackle is made or the ball is kicked out. No running out or taking a knee (see 3 above too) or fair catch stuff. The receiver can kick the ball out though, if he chooses. Play resumes from where the kick was made. (I would not scrap the fair catch as it could still happen from a kick in general play, just not from a punt directly following a snap).
6. Only skull caps may be worn, no helmets.
The game is similar to Rugby Union, but more similar to Rugby League.
Where do I think American football goes wrong? There doesn't appear any incentive to keep the ball in play or to make play continuous. This has me scratching my head.
I've come up with some rule changes to address this. I've not tried to change the rules too much, instead tweaking to make playing the ball, and playing the ball with the foot important - hence foot-ball.
Rule changes, in order of importance:-
1. The Quarterback cannot intentionally throw the ball out. The ball must be kicked or run out or passed to another player or kept in hand. This makes skill a component of Quarterback play.
2. The ball must be touched down when a touchdown is scored. If the ball simply crosses the plain the score is worth 4 points.
3. Play does not end when a knee goes down. This has to be the silliest thing I've seen. Play only ends when the ball touches the ground (fairer). This way, both players can contest the ball, and tacklers must hold the player and get him down, while if not held the player with the ball can commence running again (so long as the ball did not touch the ground).
If a player is held up and is not advancing then it can be called ball grounded.
I wouldn't allow intentional ball grounding unless a touchdown. Intentional grounding - the equivalent of taking a knee - would be a penalty and loss of possession.
In fact a lot of penalties would result in loss of possession; such as, time wasting, foul play, and so on.
4. Punts must always be returned until a tackle is made or the ball is kicked out. No running out or taking a knee (see 3 above too) or fair catch stuff. The receiver can kick the ball out though, if he chooses. Play resumes from where the kick was made. (I would not scrap the fair catch as it could still happen from a kick in general play, just not from a punt directly following a snap).
6. Only skull caps may be worn, no helmets.
January 09, 2016
George Soros On Current Collapse
I was waiting for the current market correction all 2015, looks like I was out by a month or so (don't worry, I don't try to predict the market, I just get on with things and have this idea in the back of my head). The current problem is just 2008 revisited, read about George Soros and what he thinks...
>>Click Here<<
>>Click Here<<
Speaking at an economic forum in Sri Lanka's capital, Colombo, he told an audience that China is struggling to find a new growth model and its currency devaluation is transferring problems to the rest of the world, according to media. He added that a return to rising interest rates was proving difficult for the developing world.
The current environment reminded him of the "crisis we had in 2008," The Sunday Times in Sri Lanka reported on Thursday morning. "China has a major adjustment problem," he added, according to Bloomberg. "I would say it amounts to a crisis."
China is going to fall apart. It's a case of when not if. For the rest of the world that's a real problem as China makes so much of the shit we now consume. But the problems don't end there, government has propped up failing industries and prevented bargain hunters from picking over the spoils.
What we now have, throughout the OECD, is a form of state capitalism much like the USSR form of socialism. Yes, you heard that right. Big government decides who succeeds, some are too big to fail (General Motors) and main street small business gets screwed.
2016 is going to be the year of the stock picker. To succeed as an investor, it's going to be necessary to pick the companies that will do well, and my pick is only the most boring and old-fashioned are any good. Businesses that are relatively cheap, ignored for the most part, not considered at all 'sexy.' Anything even remotely speculative or fly-by-night will be duds.
January 06, 2016
Business Ideas
Hey, this an ideas thread. Ideas I've had for some time and done nothing about myself. I've taken note though, as time has gone by, that no-one has done them, or anything similar. Maybe there are good reasons for this. Hmm.
1. Baby Boomers Retiring:-
New Zealand this, not talking in the USA etc., where private equity is well established....
No, I'm not talking about retirement homes, or farming oldies. I'm thinking all those baby boomers are retiring and what happens to their businesses? Like Auckland house prices, the amount of capital needed to buy these businesses has gone beyond the reach of younger investors.
Baby boomers also inherit their parents business and want the cash out. Or the baby boomers don't have children capable of taking over, or the children are not interested, or the children have taken over and want to cash out. Whatever, you get the idea.
Simple idea really, a private fund buys these good businesses and runs them under management. They're either directly governed or brought together into industry groups which can be floated off onto a stock exchange, or sold to management later, maybe being split up before doing so.
I'm not aware of any consultant or investment banker in NZ operating in the space where the businesses are smaller, but not the corner shop either - let's not get carried away here; I'm thinking 20-50 employees and under $50 million worth.
It could even be handled like a reverse mortgage, the retiring owner stays in place in a senior governance role and is paid out over time. Nothing really new in that angle I guess though, but where I think I'm different is that the group buying these businesses packages or bundles them up.
I can think of literally dozens of businesses where the owner is older, nearing retirement and carrying on regardless. Some I personally know and they say they have to carry on as no-one can buy their business.
So that's an opportunity for an enterprising investor.
2. Search by thought and eyes:-
The next Google is a search engine that processes your thinking. Reads your mind. Maybe through your webcam it reads your eye movement. Touch screens yes, but if you can touch the screen why can't the screen touch you?
3. HorlorVision:-
This is an implant, far beyond Google glasses. It's in your brain and you can see any movie or TV show ever made, right inside your head.
Or driving along you can see Google street view in part of your brain.
Or the military application - you can implant all the necessary steps for being an excellent soldier. Correctly configured, the soldier can work with satellites and drones, seeing behind targets ( who's hiding behind the wall?).
4. Basketball Jumping Shoes
Intelligent clothing. The rules of basketball say you're not allowed to get an advantage by jumping off or being held by someone else (technical foul). So no riding on someone's shoulders or jumping off something (such as jumping off a body crouching like a stool, or a hand off or climbing onto the backboard). But shoes have some leeway, and have improved over the years. I think Adidas put out a shoe they said allowed a higher jump, and the sole looked good.
But I'm talking a sole that applies leverage but never changes shape. This avoids the charge that the shoes are like someone standing on stilts. The interior of the shoe would use leverage to propel the player higher (the foot inside the shoe would need room).
In the next development the sole itself would have a memory that equates to a spring like a lever spring, but no actual large spring. The sole is flat but when activated by toe reflex, springs the player upward. Look at these Rosta bearings, the unit on the far right is what I'm talking about miniaturising, get the idea? This could be inside the sole and would provide massive lift...
These elements pictured work in industrial applications, inside a shoe they'd provide maybe two and a half feet of lift for the average size person - BOOM - every competent player is a dunker.
5. Water Driven Car
People go on about electric vs petrol vs fuel cell.
Well woop de doo. I'd get excited if one day you can get the garden hose and fill your tank with water and drive along using that.
Two ways this could be possible, c'mon engineers do it...
(a) the first is you have a uranium using nuclear plant in your car and it turns the water to steam, which then drives your car. The advantage of this is that when at home the same plant can power your house with electricity and feed the national grid, or;
(b) The water is fed through a cracker which splits the water into hydrogen and oxygen. Most talk about hydrogen, but the oxygen is useful here I think, bring the elements back together and boom, ignition. The nuclear unit would crack the water.
The idea is that you fit the nuclear unit to the car and it goes for the life of the car without replacement uranium, the car being disposed of when dead after 20 years or so. I haven't costed the uranium and the quantity available on planet earth. The idea falls over if there isn't enough uranium to go around.
1. Baby Boomers Retiring:-
New Zealand this, not talking in the USA etc., where private equity is well established....
No, I'm not talking about retirement homes, or farming oldies. I'm thinking all those baby boomers are retiring and what happens to their businesses? Like Auckland house prices, the amount of capital needed to buy these businesses has gone beyond the reach of younger investors.
Baby boomers also inherit their parents business and want the cash out. Or the baby boomers don't have children capable of taking over, or the children are not interested, or the children have taken over and want to cash out. Whatever, you get the idea.
Simple idea really, a private fund buys these good businesses and runs them under management. They're either directly governed or brought together into industry groups which can be floated off onto a stock exchange, or sold to management later, maybe being split up before doing so.
I'm not aware of any consultant or investment banker in NZ operating in the space where the businesses are smaller, but not the corner shop either - let's not get carried away here; I'm thinking 20-50 employees and under $50 million worth.
It could even be handled like a reverse mortgage, the retiring owner stays in place in a senior governance role and is paid out over time. Nothing really new in that angle I guess though, but where I think I'm different is that the group buying these businesses packages or bundles them up.
I can think of literally dozens of businesses where the owner is older, nearing retirement and carrying on regardless. Some I personally know and they say they have to carry on as no-one can buy their business.
So that's an opportunity for an enterprising investor.
2. Search by thought and eyes:-
The next Google is a search engine that processes your thinking. Reads your mind. Maybe through your webcam it reads your eye movement. Touch screens yes, but if you can touch the screen why can't the screen touch you?
3. HorlorVision:-
This is an implant, far beyond Google glasses. It's in your brain and you can see any movie or TV show ever made, right inside your head.
Or driving along you can see Google street view in part of your brain.
Or the military application - you can implant all the necessary steps for being an excellent soldier. Correctly configured, the soldier can work with satellites and drones, seeing behind targets ( who's hiding behind the wall?).
4. Basketball Jumping Shoes
Intelligent clothing. The rules of basketball say you're not allowed to get an advantage by jumping off or being held by someone else (technical foul). So no riding on someone's shoulders or jumping off something (such as jumping off a body crouching like a stool, or a hand off or climbing onto the backboard). But shoes have some leeway, and have improved over the years. I think Adidas put out a shoe they said allowed a higher jump, and the sole looked good.
But I'm talking a sole that applies leverage but never changes shape. This avoids the charge that the shoes are like someone standing on stilts. The interior of the shoe would use leverage to propel the player higher (the foot inside the shoe would need room).
In the next development the sole itself would have a memory that equates to a spring like a lever spring, but no actual large spring. The sole is flat but when activated by toe reflex, springs the player upward. Look at these Rosta bearings, the unit on the far right is what I'm talking about miniaturising, get the idea? This could be inside the sole and would provide massive lift...
These elements pictured work in industrial applications, inside a shoe they'd provide maybe two and a half feet of lift for the average size person - BOOM - every competent player is a dunker.
5. Water Driven Car
People go on about electric vs petrol vs fuel cell.
Well woop de doo. I'd get excited if one day you can get the garden hose and fill your tank with water and drive along using that.
Two ways this could be possible, c'mon engineers do it...
(a) the first is you have a uranium using nuclear plant in your car and it turns the water to steam, which then drives your car. The advantage of this is that when at home the same plant can power your house with electricity and feed the national grid, or;
(b) The water is fed through a cracker which splits the water into hydrogen and oxygen. Most talk about hydrogen, but the oxygen is useful here I think, bring the elements back together and boom, ignition. The nuclear unit would crack the water.
The idea is that you fit the nuclear unit to the car and it goes for the life of the car without replacement uranium, the car being disposed of when dead after 20 years or so. I haven't costed the uranium and the quantity available on planet earth. The idea falls over if there isn't enough uranium to go around.
January 03, 2016
Great Books Never Mentioned
Found this page >>Click Here<< which lists great books you never hear about. From the list I've read two of them and flicked through a third, so I'm going to trust the list and say they're all good.
A fantastic read is The Sidelong Glances of a Pigeon Kicker by David Boyer. I found it in a secondhand bookshop and bought it for a few cents. What a bargain. It's right up there with the best.
Cassell's Dictionary of Slang is the other one I've read and it's good too.
The Black Book by Lawrence Durell, I now regret simply skimming through this while visiting a friend. He's dead now so I won't be able to go around to his place to borrow it. Look out for this one.
One book missing from the list but worth a mention is The Red House by Else Jerusalem. It was published in Vienna about 1907/08 and translated into English in the 1930's. Good luck finding a copy, but it too needs to be credited.
A fantastic read is The Sidelong Glances of a Pigeon Kicker by David Boyer. I found it in a secondhand bookshop and bought it for a few cents. What a bargain. It's right up there with the best.
Cassell's Dictionary of Slang is the other one I've read and it's good too.
The Black Book by Lawrence Durell, I now regret simply skimming through this while visiting a friend. He's dead now so I won't be able to go around to his place to borrow it. Look out for this one.
One book missing from the list but worth a mention is The Red House by Else Jerusalem. It was published in Vienna about 1907/08 and translated into English in the 1930's. Good luck finding a copy, but it too needs to be credited.
