NBA: OKC's Playoff Chances

I'm still not convinced the Oklahoma City Thunder will make the playoffs. They're just barely hanging on to fifth place in the western conference. The Clippers and the Jazz could easily qualify in the top 8, and the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Nuggets are playing well at the business end of the season. I put the patchy form of OKC down to the Carmelo Anthony factor.

Labour Will Not Ban Rodeo

Finally some sense. There has been a concerted campaign in New Zealand these last few months, from groups opposed to rodeo. This worked its way through to the NZ government, but they've put a stop to the idea - rodeo will not be banned.

Phew is all I can say. Rodeo is very popular amongst the rural community in NZ. The only criticism of it from me is that it's an American affectation, rather akin to tractor pulling. NZ has its own traditional activities; eventing (horses), sheep shearing, wood chopping, fencing (of the farm fence kind, not sword fighting though some do this too), ploughing, baking, sheep herding, and so on. But some enjoy rodeo and the events are places for the often isolated rural communities to come together.

This is a classic town vs country debate that has been ongoing for decades. When Labour are in government, town is usually in ascendancy. It looks like the current NZ Labour government want to stay in power for a long time, as any ban of rodeo would have seen a widespread 'nanny state' backlash that would have been disastrous.

Labour Announce Education Shake-up

Okay so New Zealand has a new coalition government, led by Labour. It was needed, a change of government that is, and NZ clearly voted for change despite what National say when bleating about their defeat. A lot of good to talk about in the change; we'll get investment in construction, regional development, primary industry as that's where a lot of Labour voters are. All good.

But the not-so-good we can see starting to happen already. Labour, this may come as a shock so I hope you're sitting down when you read this, are owned by teachers. That's right, teachers in schools own the party that now runs the country.

So they're going to make changes. This could be good or it could be really bad and I'm picking really bad as it's the fox being put in charge of the hen house. Teachers are a lazy bunch you see. If they weren't lazy then they wouldn't be teachers, they'd be doing something that involved hard work (stop right there, I used to be teacher, don't tell me it's hard work, just don't, I stopped teaching to do something that was difficult). Teachers are necessary, very necessary but they're not rocket scientists. If they were rocket scientists then they'd be building rockets but they're not, so they're not.

What will happen is more control being put in the hands of teachers, and what you'll get is even less teaching. The new age of the illiterate and innumerate is about the dawn on the good people of NZ and they don't even know it. I'm just glad my children dodged this bullet.

I've written about this before, you can check some of my posts out here:

http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2014/06/reform-of-nz-education.html

http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2014/06/ncea.html

http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/05/more-nz-education-and-bryan-bruce.html

Winter Olympics 2018

New Zealand has broken the drought with two more medals to add to the one it won 26 years ago in Albertville, France in 1992. That first medal was a silver in the slalom by Annelise Coberger. What this means is that New Zealand is now three times better than Denmark, a country that has still only won one medal. That's right, Denmark won their sole medal, a silver in curling in 1998.

But in 2018 the story of these games must be Norway. A tiny country of only just over 5 million people and they lead on the medal table with only a few days to go. How do they do it? It turns out to be all about money; they're rich and invest in their athletic programmes more broadly. Here's an interested article on the subject.

Oh and Russia has to be called Olympic Athletes from Russia, and they can't use their flag. It's like they're the only country that dopes their athletes. Oh right, pull the other one!! My take on this is very straightforward; the west owns the doping system and keep themselves one step ahead of the agency tasked with detecting abuse. Those outside the loop, like Russia, well they're kept guessing and thus they get busted more often. Just assume all athletes are doped one way or the other and let's move on shall we, I'm sick of the finger being pointed at Russia all the time.

Simon English to step down (finally)

The incompetent Leader of the Opposition, Simon "Bill" English is saying goodbye to the New Zealand Parliament. Finally, we are free of this man who has insisted for so long everyone listen to him. He offered nothing, delivered nothing and led his party to two staggering defeats; the first just about destroyed his party and the second was a magnificent effort in clutching defeat from the jaws of victory.

For me though, with English it was all about the poor people and how much he hated them. Every chance he got he kicked them. It's hard to know why he was like that but he did a lot of social damage to his country. Personally I don't trust a man with the first name Simon, using a name like Bill. What's up with that? And then there was his faux Southland accent.

We can all let out a collective sigh of relief. He's gone, finally.

Third Novel Underway

My readers will be happy to know I'm in the middle of writing my third novel. It's a little bit Sci-Fi, a little bit comedy, tongue in cheek. I will be finishing it up in a couple of months time.

Crash 2018

Only a month ago I said that I was negative for 2018 and I told you why.

>> See Here <<

Now we have a crash across all stock markets. It was to be expected. Too much uncertainty exists in the global arena, and too much wealth concentrated in a few hands. Plus we have not had structurally meaningful reforms to economies. All that happened post the GFC was bail outs and doubling down. Inefficiency and incompetence was rewarded.

For the value investor, right now is a golden opportunity. Have you been a frugal investor and kept your cash in the bank? Yes? The next few weeks is the time to venture out and begin looking for bargains. Study my portfolio from the following site;

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521

My suggestion is to look for companies that everyone else thinks are too boring for words. If your neighbours have never heard of them, then maybe that's a good thing and you should check them out - the company that is, not your neighbours.

[Update @ 03/04/2019 - this portfolio is still ahead 28% despite the 2020 COVID-19 Crisis. That's testament to conservative investment strategy. The real crash wasn't 2018, but 2020, but with my strategy it doesn't matter ]

Sexism Dos and Don'ts

We live in a strange age. An age where this kind of explicit sexuality is deemed fine and dandy...cue leggy models....




But then F1 grid girls are a no go....

Err, hello world, reality check. While personally I've never seen the point in having models displayed at grand prix events (okay so an exception would be hosts at corporate events and the like, hosts of both gender preferably), the above video seems to be celebrated while the girls in the image below are vilified, but in fact I fail to see any difference between them. 

Rocket Lab Launch Satellite

New Zealand has entered the business of space by launching a satellite from its soil. Quite an achievement and this is a commercial scale undertaking with many more launches planned.

See the launch video here (countdown from 10, 9, 8 starts at 14:48):

New Zealand Too Small

A post now about my country of birth, little old New Zealand. NZ has failed but not woken up to that fact yet. How it failed was it did not invest enough in the right areas, it did not grow its population, and it did not listen. But there are exit chutes available and I'll mention them here, in order from the less preferred by me to the most preferred. Here goes, the way I see it NZ has 4 options:

4. Become part of Australia. This is the easiest option, NZ is already a State in fact and can just snap its fingers and voila. However the reason this isn't the answer is to do with business cycles and the way Australia itself functions. NZ already has direct access but Australia treats NZ like branch office, the latter effect would just get worse. Australia just doesn't have enough grunt by itself either, adding NZ doesn't add much to what is itself small (Oz), and in terms of economic cycles Australia is often going in the opposite direction to NZ.  So Kiwiland can give this a swerve.

3. Form an empire of the South Pacific Rim. Not as silly as it seems, join all the South Pacific Islands together with the western seaboard of South America, together with NZ and the eastern seaboard of Australia. This is an empire situated in a basin, from the eastern side of the Great Dividing Range across the ocean to the Andes. The problem with this is legal systems and language.

2. Join the EU. To achieve this, NZ could merge with a small European country, such as Denmark. Denmark has 5.7 million people, NZ 4.5 million. Culturally there is not much separating them, they both hold territory at the extremities, Denmark with Greenland and NZ with the Ross Sea in Antarctica. This could be a match made in heaven. Legally, culturally, economically, and even with language there would not be much to worry about. I like this option a lot. Both countries double in size overnight and both gain.

1. Become a State of the USA. Yes I've said this before and this option is the most fancied. NZ stands to gain a lot, principally in terms of access to capital and in industrial development. The legal systems, culturally, linguistically, there is very little to learn and the US gains resources. I have looked at the pros and cons of this here: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/05/new-zealand-51st-state.html

Long term what cannot continue is the ever growing size of government unmatched by real GDP growth. NZ needs to industrialise, its failure in this respect will see its farmland collapse. Maybe not in my lifetime but almost certainly in the lifetime of my grandchildren and that's a real concern.

Catherine Deneuve

The New Yorker has published a good counter to the open letter signed by Catherine Deneuve and other signatories.

Read it here: https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-did-catherine-deneuve-and-other-prominent-frenchwomen-denounce-metoo

I'd agree that this isn't a case of cultural differences, but add it's a case of the French being wilfully obtuse. I swear they wait to find out what the English speaking world thinks and then say the opposite.

Oprah Winfrey for President

As a result of Oprah Winfrey's outstanding speech at the Golden Globe awards there is a clamour for her to stand for President of the US in 2020. She'd be good in the role and this isn't the first time such a prospect has been mentioned. I remember at one point speculation over her being the first black President.

There are one or two impediments to her candidacy and I won't dwell on these just yet, wait for the bible belt to do that. My concern is why would she? Wouldn't she be more valuable and more of an influencer being an even bigger media mogul? An Oprah IPO would be worth billions and with that she could buy a major player, networks, communications companies, film studios. She could be the next Rupert Murdoch.

Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House

Anyone read Fire and Fury yet? Please share your thoughts about the book if you have, I'm fascinated to hear the gossip.

The book is written by Michael Wolf and been all over the news in case you just arrived back on earth and didn't know: https://www.amazon.com/Fire-Fury-Inside-Trump-White/dp/1250158060

Negative Outlook 2018

Globally I've got a negative outlook for 2018 and I'll tell you why. The way I see it, we have too much uncertainty worldwide, both in terms of national security and commerce. Generally speaking, it isn't wise to worry about this or that government when investing. The rule is find good businesses that are well managed and put your money into them. I'd agree for the most part and I'm aware the Dow Jones is performing well.

But where I go negative is looking at issues with the Middle East, Pakistan, and North Korea. Then we have an at times unhinged President Trump. Then consider that financially all the world did was double down post the Global Financial Crisis, the underlying issues have never been properly addressed.

That last point is the most serious I feel. Wealth is increasingly concentrated in fewer hands within the developed nations. This has got to result in instability, particularly within the EU.

On the plus side we have Africa emerging, and living standards there are rising along with incomes. I often say that sub-Saharan Africa needs to find a Garribaldi. The region badly needs that kind of leader.

My advice therefore is to look for value, and continue to invest in companies that are boring beyond belief. Eschew all the sexy stuff, and by that I mean the latest technology whiz-bang. Tesla cars are at the top of my hit list, who would own such a stuff of nonsense. Keep it boring, keep it simple, don't believe what you are told and never listen to hype.

Happy Saturnalia

A return to our roots in these parts, with a nod to the old Julian calendar, I'm celebrating Saturnalia around December 25. The Romans did things the right way I'd say, so let's get back to basics. A return to making Latin compulsory in schools should soon follow. That is if we had any sense.

Io! Saturnalia

UN Vote

The numbers are in and the UN General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly against President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel. What took my attention was the Israeli Ambassador using a prop, a replica of a 2,000 year old coin from the region:

https://worldisraelnews.com/danon-presents-replica-1st-century-coin-un-stressing-ancient-jewish-ties-jerusalem/

http://www.jewishpress.com/wp-content/uploads/Danon-exhibits-ancient-coin-at-UNGA-218x150.jpg

Isn't this a rather weak argument from Israel? I think that argument must go along the lines, because there were Jews in the region 2,000 years ago, that means the modern state of Israel gets to do whatever it likes with the city today. Which of course is nonsense, there is a thing called International Law you know.

Now Israel might have a claim if they could show an unbroken chain of governance stretching back that far. But wait, they can't, as any student of history will tell you about the first and second Roman-Jewish wars which the Romans won. They sacked Jerusalem and threw out the Jews, most becoming slaves. If we follow Israel's logic the rightful owners of Jerusalem is Italy, as the legitimate descendants of Rome. But wait, there's more, the Romans lost Jerusalem in the 7th century, so that would mean Turkey gets Jerusalem, according to the Israeli logic. Do you see? The argument as put just doesn't hold water.

So what now? Unpalatable as it may sound, my suggestion is for Palestine and the other states that surround Israel to either win some wars, or give up and trade Israel into oblivion. What are Arabs good at? They're traders first and foremost and good ones. But if going to war then make sure you win it as the winner gets to write the history. Oh no? Oh yes, what we know of Carthage and Troy comes only from the victors at the end of the day. Israel for its part could see the writing on the wall, observe the UN Resolutions and stop relying on the US to back it up as the US will just as soon throw them under the bus when it suits.

UFO Investigation

Now we have official recognition of UFO sightings.

http://www.dw.com/en/the-us-pentagons-secret-investigation-into-ufos/a-41830522

The way I see this kind of thing is like this:

1. The Russians must have some scary technology, or
2. There's a lot of things happening in our atmosphere we just don't understand yet, or
3. People can do some clever tricks with cameras, or
4. The USA has some scary technology that it doesn't even tell its own military about, or
5. Some private individual has invented some clever stuff and not told anyone about it, or
6. There really are some unexplained or unexplainable extraterrestrial happenings.

On that last one, how come these extraterrestrials don't make contact? And once detected and they leave Earth, why can't we track them to see which direction they head? And once these intruders are out there and they hit their warp drive (or whatever you want to call it), how come we can't observe that too?

Okay so depressing thought of the day; we need to get over it, right now, as things stand, we're alone in the observable universe. This is not to say that there has never been other intelligent life, or that there won't be after we're gone, but right now we're it. At least that's my guess. But heh, I like to speculate along with everyone else.

Sand Wars

I watched the documentary Sand Wars on al Jazeera recently, it was interesting but ultimately came up short, and that's because the documentary lacked balance and became emotive.

I know something about sand. Some may call me an expert on the subject but I wouldn't go that far, I'd call myself a specialist. That said there are several things to consider about sand and where to find it, how to process it. Sand is critical for construction, the oceans, and our coastlines. We can't have a civilisation without sand and our environment is jeopardised if we extract too much ot it. So what is the answer? That's what I'm going to deal with here:

1. Natural or Man-made?

The above documentary never once considered quarried rock being transformed into sand. They did have someone at an aggregate trade show or conference saying that all the natural deposits of sand and gravel had been taken away. That is nonsense.

There is a rule in the sand business; first find a natural deposit. This can be quite difficult as a lot of factors need to be considered when searching for a suitable extraction pit. Such things as distance to market or end-user, ease with which the resource can be extracted, the physical properties of that resource having a bearing on just how much processing is involved, water sources and so on. But increasingly regulation and the NIMBY effect come into it as well. There is a lot of natural, clean sand out there, you're just not allowed to touch it because of that last factor.

So what now then? You have to manufacture that sand at your already operationally consented rock quarry. This is not an easy exercise and involves complex machinery which can be very expensive. Even when set up the end-product can be of much lesser quality than the natural equivalent. It doesn't have to be, but man is fallible and they don't always get it right.

Is sand running out? The short answer is No.

2. Sand from the Sea or Beach.

This is generally not the answer as salt comes with the sand. Sand dredged from below the sea is not as heavy with salt as beach sand is, but this source of sand still requires further processing, or thorough washing before it can be used in construction. The documentary said that buildings in Tangiers may fall down because they're built with sand from the sea. If the sand is salt ridden then the structures would be weakened over time due to the rusting of the reinforcing steel inside the concrete. The buildings would be fine if that sand had been washed sufficiently or simply came within specification without further processing.

How much sand comes from dredging operations? Much less than you're led to believe. Ships are a pain in the arse and you can't see below the water. Even land based dredging from wet pits or lakes is thwart with difficulty. I've seen the figures on this and sand dredging is still the little bedfellow on the block in terms of the whole.

3. Recycling and Blending.

Not just glass, but concrete can be recycled also. Valuable sand and other aggregates can be re-extracted. This extends the life of existing in-ground resources. But also overlooked is blending the sand. That is, taking some man-made, some natural and maybe some recycled resource and blending them together. A pugmill or similar process can do this most effectively.

4. Concrete

There are few alternatives to this amazing stuff called Portland Cementous Concrete. Our world does not function without it and we have got to learn to manage it. People talking about straw bale houses is not the answer. Yes we can use wood and steel and such but what the Romans knew all along and the rest of the world woke up to in the nineteenth century is that Concrete is the answer. If in doubt concrete it.

If you have a sand deposit and don't know what to do with it, or need help in any way, then please contact me using the contact form on this page. I'm here to help.

Stop Banning Russia

It has to stop. Banning Russia from Olympic competition is a bad idea. Russia and all Russians take sport seriously and they're not going to just lay down. Face facts people, all countries conduct doping of their athletes, all that is being proven right now is that Russia is behind the latest technology. That's all, so bring them up to speed fast and we can all go back to enjoying their talent along with all the other pharmaceutically enhanced specimens from the rest of the industrialised world.

Of course the current ban on Russia from attending the Winter 2019 Olympics is political. It's designed to show Russia who is in charge, payback for countless perceived wrongs whether that be in Syria or the Crimea, the Ukraine, wherever. Of course Russia will retaliate in their own time and in their own way, why stir them up? It makes no sense to me.

America First

I've just thought of a new conspiracy theory. Someone else may have come up with this, sorry if this has been thought of before, but this is my original. Okay? Here goes:

Donald Trump is looking to get himself fired, impeached, stood own; whatever it takes to be deposed. What he then intends doing is setting up a rival party to the GOP called America First or similar, run along far right lines. This would explain his re-tweets of the Britain First deputy leader's tweets. He'd then promote this new party through social media and Fox. A chilling prospect but not inconceivable.
What do you think?