The AM Show is a New Zealand weekday breakfast TV show. It's a lightweight attempt at current affairs, most of the guests are conservative and the views expressed are generally right-of-centre. That said, I think in the run up to the recent General Election and in the weeks after they've crossed the line and become an organ of the National Party. To recap, National are now in opposition as they lost the General Election and are out of office.
How I think the AM Show tried and still tries to support National is in the relentlessly favourable coverage they provide. This support extends to all levels, even right down to captions, with the National party leader Simon "Bill" English being described recently as 'National Leader' instead of Leader of the Opposition. With the former title one could be confused about his actual role.
So what I'm going to do is run a survey just to check if I'm right. I'll listen to three hours of the AM Show, each separate hour chosen randomly on any given day (also chosen randomly). What I'll be listening for is either National being mentioned or the government which could be Labour, NZ First or the Greens. How many times does the AM Show mention either and in what proportion?
Then I'll be listening for generally favourable comments. How I'll determine this will be going by how the commentator leaves the viewer or listener (the show is also simulcast on radio).
For example, imagine a new road is being announced. What I think the AM Show do is boost National but detract from Labour. What they'd say is something like this:
"Labour has announced a new road, 'bout time I'd say, where's the money coming from? (Labour spokesperson comes on and makes sense in pointing out National failed to build the road). Trust Labour to have not done their sums."
Then when National have their say (remember National had planned this road but never built it):
"The very capable Steven Joyce will be all over this, over to the money man, what about this then (Steven Joyce speaks with little interruption). Well that's the final word then, trust National to sort this mess out."
Clearly in such an exchange the intention is to create a generally favourable impression of National, wouldn't you say? I don't know why New Zealand puts up with it, there could be a good argument for having TV3's licence to broadcast suspended.
And a sidebar, the presenters are white and middle class. Duncan Garner is the so-called 'star' who wrote an offensive and deeply racist opinion piece for the Sunday Star Times awhile back, while the sports guy is a former cricket player for NZ. Cricket is largely white and who you know not how good you are largely determines selection. His name is Mark Richardson (you are not expected to recognise the name and few know what he has done despite his repeatedly reminding the audience he once played for NZ's biggest sporting chokers) and he openly endorsed National prior to the election.
When TV3 next goes bust, I suggest the frequencies be allocated to Radio New Zealand and let them run a TV news channel.
October 31, 2017
October 30, 2017
Lies About New Zealand
From time to time I take to task those who peddle misinformation about New Zealand. Be careful I say, as the writers often have an agenda or are just plain stupid.
The latest example of this came to my attention through Twitter of all places. This is the offending website: http://www.nzpensionprotest.com/Home/the-fight/nz-pension-abuse-website
The arguments as put up by these people are confused and incomprehensible. What I was able to discern from them was they want to be able to double-dip in effect, that is, receive an overseas pension AND have their Kiwi partners also receive a single person pension in NZ as well; all the while living in the blissful harmony of Aotearoa New Zealand.
Err, but no you don't get to do that at all. For the record, NZ has one of the most broad and non-discriminatory pension schemes you'll find - anywhere. But one thing you cannot do is get paid more than others. Everyone who qualifies gets paid the same, singles get what other singles get, married the same as other married and so on. If a millionaire and single you get the same as homeless and single.
Now you may debate the sense of doing this and that would be fine, but what will never happen is a retired person getting paid while the pension income from overseas exceeds what is allowable.
[edit to add "who qualifies" after everyone, third line second to last paragraph]
A partner website of the above link with no contactable address and more of the same attacks, all apparently intended to damage New Zealand, can be found here: http://nzpensionabuse.org.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/index.html
[Essentially the above sites are fake news. The websites may sound legalistic in nature but they constitute propaganda and you have to wonder who is paying for it. Funnily enough a robust refutation of all their claims can be found hidden on their own website. This comes from a government official called Iona Holsted: >The Ministry of Social Development Does Not Raid Overseas Pensions<
Of importance in the above guidance from Holsted is the third paragraph starting with the words 'where a person's overseas pension is higher...' (ignore the underlining - the person who does that cannot comprehend what is written all that well).]
[Edit to add: All correspondence on this matter is now closed. Readers may guess that a successful and widely read blog like mine, read in literally every country of the world, receives a few dipsticks. Most of them are selling something. And they're often Asian. Nice try but they're just deleted. But this lot are the exception, they constantly contact with the same entitled bullshit, attacking New Zealand and me, all the while wanting a free lunch. Read the link you bludgers, the one from the Ministry of Social Development, Iona Holsted nails it. Stop looking for a free lunch, and stop attacking New Zealand.]
The latest example of this came to my attention through Twitter of all places. This is the offending website: http://www.nzpensionprotest.com/Home/the-fight/nz-pension-abuse-website
The arguments as put up by these people are confused and incomprehensible. What I was able to discern from them was they want to be able to double-dip in effect, that is, receive an overseas pension AND have their Kiwi partners also receive a single person pension in NZ as well; all the while living in the blissful harmony of Aotearoa New Zealand.
Err, but no you don't get to do that at all. For the record, NZ has one of the most broad and non-discriminatory pension schemes you'll find - anywhere. But one thing you cannot do is get paid more than others. Everyone who qualifies gets paid the same, singles get what other singles get, married the same as other married and so on. If a millionaire and single you get the same as homeless and single.
Now you may debate the sense of doing this and that would be fine, but what will never happen is a retired person getting paid while the pension income from overseas exceeds what is allowable.
[edit to add "who qualifies" after everyone, third line second to last paragraph]
A partner website of the above link with no contactable address and more of the same attacks, all apparently intended to damage New Zealand, can be found here: http://nzpensionabuse.org.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/index.html
[Essentially the above sites are fake news. The websites may sound legalistic in nature but they constitute propaganda and you have to wonder who is paying for it. Funnily enough a robust refutation of all their claims can be found hidden on their own website. This comes from a government official called Iona Holsted: >The Ministry of Social Development Does Not Raid Overseas Pensions<
Of importance in the above guidance from Holsted is the third paragraph starting with the words 'where a person's overseas pension is higher...' (ignore the underlining - the person who does that cannot comprehend what is written all that well).]
[Edit to add: All correspondence on this matter is now closed. Readers may guess that a successful and widely read blog like mine, read in literally every country of the world, receives a few dipsticks. Most of them are selling something. And they're often Asian. Nice try but they're just deleted. But this lot are the exception, they constantly contact with the same entitled bullshit, attacking New Zealand and me, all the while wanting a free lunch. Read the link you bludgers, the one from the Ministry of Social Development, Iona Holsted nails it. Stop looking for a free lunch, and stop attacking New Zealand.]
October 28, 2017
2017-18 NBA Season
The new NBA season is under way and the season promises to be a good one with more close games. The usual easy beats aren't so easy to beat this season. For instance, the Washington Wizards look very promising despite going down to the Golden State Warriors in their latest game. Also looking good are the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Across the league more pressure is being applied by defenses to perimeter shooters, about time I'd say. This kind of pressure was evident from the Golden State/Wizards game, with shot selection being the decider in my opinion. Questions would need to be asked of the Wizards coach too, his was a poor display, allowing his team to give up a considerable lead.
I'm going to predict the OKC Thunder will struggle and may not even make the playoffs. A big call I know but I'll explain my view in two words, Carmelo Anthony.
Across the league more pressure is being applied by defenses to perimeter shooters, about time I'd say. This kind of pressure was evident from the Golden State/Wizards game, with shot selection being the decider in my opinion. Questions would need to be asked of the Wizards coach too, his was a poor display, allowing his team to give up a considerable lead.
I'm going to predict the OKC Thunder will struggle and may not even make the playoffs. A big call I know but I'll explain my view in two words, Carmelo Anthony.
October 26, 2017
Donald Trump - Is He Unhinged?
It has occurred to me that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, may actually be unhinged and should therefore be removed from office. That's not to say he isn't sometimes right. But when he's right it appears to be more a case of a stopped clock being right twice a day rather any Trump wisdom.
Bear in mind he actually inherited his fortune and the company that bears his name employs some capable people. And if Trump had simply invested in a safe Wall Street fund he'd be a lot richer than he is now. He's actually gone backwards on where he was when he took over from his father when taking the S&P indexes into account.
This latest incident where the President took issue with the widow of a US soldier is another example of his unhinged state. I believe the widow's version and that of Congresswoman Frederica Wilson. No doubt the President had the name of the fallen soldier written down in front of him, but Donald Trump is so out of it, he can't even read. Now that is something to think about.
The precedent for taking steps to remove Trump lies in the events of 1987, when senior staff closely observed Ronald Reagan for any evidence of instability. In that case Reagan performed satisfactorily and so stayed on. Perhaps a similar watch needs to be kept of Trump.
Bear in mind he actually inherited his fortune and the company that bears his name employs some capable people. And if Trump had simply invested in a safe Wall Street fund he'd be a lot richer than he is now. He's actually gone backwards on where he was when he took over from his father when taking the S&P indexes into account.
This latest incident where the President took issue with the widow of a US soldier is another example of his unhinged state. I believe the widow's version and that of Congresswoman Frederica Wilson. No doubt the President had the name of the fallen soldier written down in front of him, but Donald Trump is so out of it, he can't even read. Now that is something to think about.
The precedent for taking steps to remove Trump lies in the events of 1987, when senior staff closely observed Ronald Reagan for any evidence of instability. In that case Reagan performed satisfactorily and so stayed on. Perhaps a similar watch needs to be kept of Trump.
October 24, 2017
Get Ready For Boom Times Ahead
The incoming Labour-NZ First government has just announced a one billion dollar regional development initiative. This comes on top of Labour's first big promise, 100,000 new homes. With a Labour government a construction boom always follows. It's as sure as any certainty you can get in business.
So everyone will have to put up with the Greens stomping on mining. We'll all just have to wait to deal with them later, hopefully in three years time at the next election when it becomes obvious even to the few who voted for them that they're just communists re-branded. And New Zealand will have to put up with all the political correctness, like low flow shower heads and long life light bulbs. But that will be a small price to pay really, when you consider how much money and jobs are going to be on offer with all the construction that will be occurring.
And don't feel sorry for National. Don't miss them for a minute. They didn't handle the economy that well, all that happened was they inherited the work done by the very capable Michael Cullen. Then they did stupid things like stopping contributions to the Cullen Fund. They hated poor people and preferred to see them living out of old cars instead of providing them affordable accommodation. The Christchurch rebuild stalled, Auckland got its own way on everything, the army shrivelled to almost nothing. The list goes on and on.
Simon "Bill" English - resign and go and get your first real job.
So everyone will have to put up with the Greens stomping on mining. We'll all just have to wait to deal with them later, hopefully in three years time at the next election when it becomes obvious even to the few who voted for them that they're just communists re-branded. And New Zealand will have to put up with all the political correctness, like low flow shower heads and long life light bulbs. But that will be a small price to pay really, when you consider how much money and jobs are going to be on offer with all the construction that will be occurring.
And don't feel sorry for National. Don't miss them for a minute. They didn't handle the economy that well, all that happened was they inherited the work done by the very capable Michael Cullen. Then they did stupid things like stopping contributions to the Cullen Fund. They hated poor people and preferred to see them living out of old cars instead of providing them affordable accommodation. The Christchurch rebuild stalled, Auckland got its own way on everything, the army shrivelled to almost nothing. The list goes on and on.
Simon "Bill" English - resign and go and get your first real job.
October 19, 2017
Labour - NZ First Coalition Government
The numbers are in and New Zealand is going to have a new government made up of Labour and NZ First in a formal coalition arrangement with the Greens supporting on confidence and supply. National will be the opposition yet be the largest single bloc of votes with 56 seats in the House of Representatives.
How did this happen? Three things to consider, and please note most pundits have got this completely wrong because, quite simply, they don't know what they're talking about.
The first thing to remember is that both Labour and NZ First campaigned on effecting change. National were seeking a fourth term in office and played an undermining of all others strategy without a support brand of their own to help get them over the line. This was doomed to failure from the start. Simon "Bill" English is a grade A loser as I've said all along. What National needed was National Lite, or Labour Right to help them out, not the largely discredited ACT party.
The second part of the equation lies within NZ First. Contrary to many widely held opinions, NZ First is made up of approximately 60% old-school Labour. At NZ First meetings they can be oft heard using terms like 'what about the workers' or some such. These people joined NZ First as they hate the modern Labour party and its membership of teachers, nurses and social workers. When listening to the modern Labour party all the old-school can hear is flub-flub-flub. So they go to NZ First to join others of like mind then after the meeting head to the Pub to play darts and drink beer. Only about 20% of NZ First are old-Nats, and they are there because the new National party is an undemocratic institution that tells its membership what to think all the time. Policy descends from the top with new-Nats. Then lastly 20% of NZ First are new to politics. They are often Asian, Indians mostly, drawn to NZ First policies of regional development and looking after small businesses.
The NZ First membership is not old either, forget that thinking as National has a much older average age of membership by comparison. Winston Peters would be mindful of his party make-up when deciding who to go with.
Then lastly we have what Labour and National are like to deal with. We have to consider past dealings. National are dishonest in their dealings, they give a lot away up front but then look to undermine and stab their partner in the back. However Labour, while hard to get concessions from, are more likely to honour any arrangement. Compare 1996 with 2005 to see my point from Mr Peters perspective.
It's a no-brainer really and I'm glad I got this right. It's going to be funny seeing Paula Bennett on the AM show with Duncan Garner, no more Princess-waiting-to-be-Queen behaviour from her. That is, if she even shows up again.
How did this happen? Three things to consider, and please note most pundits have got this completely wrong because, quite simply, they don't know what they're talking about.
The first thing to remember is that both Labour and NZ First campaigned on effecting change. National were seeking a fourth term in office and played an undermining of all others strategy without a support brand of their own to help get them over the line. This was doomed to failure from the start. Simon "Bill" English is a grade A loser as I've said all along. What National needed was National Lite, or Labour Right to help them out, not the largely discredited ACT party.
The second part of the equation lies within NZ First. Contrary to many widely held opinions, NZ First is made up of approximately 60% old-school Labour. At NZ First meetings they can be oft heard using terms like 'what about the workers' or some such. These people joined NZ First as they hate the modern Labour party and its membership of teachers, nurses and social workers. When listening to the modern Labour party all the old-school can hear is flub-flub-flub. So they go to NZ First to join others of like mind then after the meeting head to the Pub to play darts and drink beer. Only about 20% of NZ First are old-Nats, and they are there because the new National party is an undemocratic institution that tells its membership what to think all the time. Policy descends from the top with new-Nats. Then lastly 20% of NZ First are new to politics. They are often Asian, Indians mostly, drawn to NZ First policies of regional development and looking after small businesses.
The NZ First membership is not old either, forget that thinking as National has a much older average age of membership by comparison. Winston Peters would be mindful of his party make-up when deciding who to go with.
Then lastly we have what Labour and National are like to deal with. We have to consider past dealings. National are dishonest in their dealings, they give a lot away up front but then look to undermine and stab their partner in the back. However Labour, while hard to get concessions from, are more likely to honour any arrangement. Compare 1996 with 2005 to see my point from Mr Peters perspective.
It's a no-brainer really and I'm glad I got this right. It's going to be funny seeing Paula Bennett on the AM show with Duncan Garner, no more Princess-waiting-to-be-Queen behaviour from her. That is, if she even shows up again.
October 14, 2017
DIY Investing
Back in June I picked PACCAR Inc., here: http://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/06/paccar-inc.html
Had my readers taken heed and invested, their investment would be up 16%. Check out my portfolio: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
What I say is this: take your own counsel and buy shares directly through a broker. Do not buy into funds, or funds of funds, and eschew financial advice from so-called professionals. All that happens when following investment advisers and funds is they'll take away most of the gains in fees. Do It Yourself, be conservative and look for value.
Had my readers taken heed and invested, their investment would be up 16%. Check out my portfolio: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio.aspx?fid=521
What I say is this: take your own counsel and buy shares directly through a broker. Do not buy into funds, or funds of funds, and eschew financial advice from so-called professionals. All that happens when following investment advisers and funds is they'll take away most of the gains in fees. Do It Yourself, be conservative and look for value.
October 11, 2017
NZ General Election 2017: The Numbers
This is how things stack up in the House of Representatives in New Zealand following the final count of the General Election 2017.
National: 56 seats, Labour 46, NZ First 9, Greens 8, ACT 1.
Possible coalitions therefore, in order of likelihood (need 61 seats to form a government). Note that ACT has become irrelevant:
National 56 + NZ First 9 = 65
Labour + Greens + NZ First = 63
Labour + NZ First 55 + Greens on Confidence and Supply = 63
National 56 + NZ First on Confidence and Supply = 65
National + Labour = 102
National + Greens = 64
If we take the top three options as being far more likely than the bottom three, then we can see that National are left stranded. Labour are in the box seat with more options for how they form a government. It is worth mentioning that only Labour increased its share of the vote this time round. Everyone else slipped and this must play on the minds of the leaders during negotiations.
National: 56 seats, Labour 46, NZ First 9, Greens 8, ACT 1.
Possible coalitions therefore, in order of likelihood (need 61 seats to form a government). Note that ACT has become irrelevant:
National 56 + NZ First 9 = 65
Labour + Greens + NZ First = 63
Labour + NZ First 55 + Greens on Confidence and Supply = 63
National 56 + NZ First on Confidence and Supply = 65
National + Labour = 102
National + Greens = 64
If we take the top three options as being far more likely than the bottom three, then we can see that National are left stranded. Labour are in the box seat with more options for how they form a government. It is worth mentioning that only Labour increased its share of the vote this time round. Everyone else slipped and this must play on the minds of the leaders during negotiations.
October 10, 2017
Duncan Garner
Duncan Garner's recent rant in a Sunday paper in New Zealand was definitely racist. More telling is that he defended his words on the AM show the next day.
He's all façade. He's also lightweight as he goes on an on and on. Massively. (Yes I'm copying his poor style).
I have found a very good slap down here: https://discrepancie.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/im-not-racist-but-an-open-letter-to-duncan-garner/
I see parallels between Garner's snake imagery and that used by Fritz Hippler in the Nazi propaganda film The Eternal Jew (1940). Hippler depicted rats running in the sewers, a clear reference to the notion of the wandering Jew. Garner doesn't want wandering mobs of the wrong type of person in his queue at Kmart.
He's all façade. He's also lightweight as he goes on an on and on. Massively. (Yes I'm copying his poor style).
I have found a very good slap down here: https://discrepancie.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/im-not-racist-but-an-open-letter-to-duncan-garner/
I see parallels between Garner's snake imagery and that used by Fritz Hippler in the Nazi propaganda film The Eternal Jew (1940). Hippler depicted rats running in the sewers, a clear reference to the notion of the wandering Jew. Garner doesn't want wandering mobs of the wrong type of person in his queue at Kmart.