Was Maduro Betrayed?

A bit obvious, I'd have thought, how else would Delta Force know exactly where Maduro was? He had to have been served up. 

The latest news coming out of Venezuela sounds as if they're going to start fixing their oil infrastructure and start pumping oil. A figure I saw has their output at about 750k barrels per day, down from their usual one million, which is even far worse than their 1990's output of three million barrels per day.

Venezuela has gone from being the richest country on Earth per capita in the seventies, to abject poverty today. If regime change lifts the standard of living, then that's good. I'm fairly sure that behind the scenes the two sides have been talking and the deal was that Maduro has to be given up, and America gets involved once again in their oil industry. 

Venezuela Oil

What I said back in October 2025 is starting to look pretty accurate right now:

I said:

I've been thinking of a reason the US may be about to take Venezuela, and the only explanation I can think of is that they want its oil. Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves by far, yet it only pumps daily about 10% of what it should be pumping. That's because, after decades of economic failure, their oil equipment is broken.

Right then, so what I think the US could do is take control of Venezuelan oil. To do this, they wouldn't need to occupy the whole country. All they'd do is control those areas where the oil fields are located, and also control pipelines and port facilities. Study the map to see where those assets are located.

Venezuela is surrounded by adversaries. Guyana is part of the Commonwealth and a former British colony, and likewise, so is Trinidad and Tobago. Then, to the west is Colombia, which is now fully developed and a member of the OECD. Only Brazil may be an ally of Venezuela, but it's through a jungle and undeveloped areas too far south.

The scenario would be to first crush all of Venezuela's oil exports, then occupy the oil fields. They'd need to take out Venezuela's military assets as well, and leadership in Caracas. But they'd just destroy the government and military assets, not take them on head-to-head.

Why is this a brilliant strategic move? If the US does this, then China is cooked. What has this got to do with China?

China controls the so-called renewables sector, wind and solar energy generation, and it controls EV battery production. If the US starts pumping Venezuelan oil at ten times its daily rate right now, the price of gasoline will halve and wipe out the renewables sector overnight. Why would anyone buy an EV, or install solar panels, or a wind turbine when oil is cheap and limitless?

Venezuela's Oil Assets

Maduro Captured

US President Donald Trump is claiming to have captured Venezuela's President Maduro. This sets a bad precedent. I wonder if the US has thought this through?

Update: it has occurred to me that Maduro's people were so sick of him that they simply gave him up to the US. This allows for regime change, it'll be interesting to see how the story unfolds.

US vs Venezuela

Reports are coming in that the United States has started action against Venezuela.

Oil!

Apologies to the novelist, Upton Sinclair, for my borrowing the title to his book Oil! The book is loosely based off the real-life oilman, Edward L Doheny, a man who knew how to get things done. The movie, There Will Be Blood starring Daniel Day-Lewis, is based on the novel, so in a loose sense, the Daniel Day-Lewis character is a very watered down Doheny. 

Anyhoo...we have an Oil! situation developing in Venezuela and Nigeria. It is clear to me that before war is declared worldwide, the US is securing their supply chains. In the Senate they're closely examining shipbuilding, with Ted Cruz involved, and the White House is securing oil. 

If you are investor in renewables, my advice is to get out of that as it will all collapse as soon as this war goes fully kinetic. Wind and solar relies heavily on China, and China is going to be rubble, so good luck with that. As well, oil will be cheap as Venezuela and Nigeria will go back to pumping as they should, the volume from which will bring down the cost of oil, making renewables uneconomic. 

Anyway, Balkan Mapper has an interesting video up:

And from Donald Trump to Nigeria:

Start Pumping Oil

Current so-called renewable energy is now economically viable due to the current oil price. But that oil price is held up by Venezuela's lack of output. They only pump about 900,000 barrels of oil a day, when they should be pumping about nine million barrels. Even at that higher rate, they'd have about 100 years of production left based on existing reserves.

The renewables sector is living in a false economy. The price of oil can only come down. That's because Venezuela won't continue to live in the Dark Ages much longer, plus new oil fields are coming on soon in Africa. As well, there is much oil yet to be discovered.

Study the graph which shows how oil reserves amongst the top five countries have increased. The graph starts in 1980; the year before I studied the oil crisis of the 1970s. I had a lecturer, a colossal fool this person was, an intellectual minnow who opined that oil was finished, nothing new was to be found, and it would all be gone by the year 2000. Back then, in 1979, people actually believed that kind of nonsense. There was also the big ice age about to happen, and it was in all the newspapers and magazines; we were preparing to freeze because oil was running out.

Well, how did that work out? 

You know - science!

Top 5 Oil Reserves 1980-2015

Venezuela's Oil

I've been thinking of a reason the US may be about to take Venezuela, and the only explanation I can think of is that they want its oil. Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves by far, yet it only pumps daily about 10% of what it should be pumping. That's because, after decades of economic failure, their oil equipment is broken.

Right then, so what I think the US could do is take control of Venezuelan oil. To do this, they wouldn't need to occupy the whole country. All they'd do is control those areas where the oil fields are located, and also control pipelines and port facilities. Study the map to see where those assets are located.

Venezuela is surrounded by adversaries. Guyana is part of the Commonwealth and a former British colony, and likewise, so is Trinidad and Tobago. Then, to the west is Colombia, which is now fully developed and a member of the OECD. Only Brazil may be an ally of Venezuela, but it's through a jungle and undeveloped areas too far south.

The scenario would be to first crush all of Venezuela's oil exports, then occupy the oil fields. They'd need to take out Venezuela's military assets as well, and leadership in Caracas. But they'd just destroy the government and military assets, not take them on head-to-head.

Why is this a brilliant strategic move? If the US does this, then China is cooked. What has this got to do with China?

China controls the so-called renewables sector, wind and solar energy generation, and it controls EV battery production. If the US starts pumping Venezuelan oil at ten times its daily rate right now, the price of gasoline will halve and wipe out the renewables sector overnight. Why would anyone buy an EV, or install solar panels, or a wind turbine when oil is cheap and limitless?

Venezuela's Oil Assets

Venezuela, What Went Wrong?

The US is moving significant assets into the Caribbean, apparently with the intent of tackling Venezuela. There's a lot of speculation going around about what the US has planned; it could just be sabre rattling, or they could be about to bring about regime change. Who knows?

Those who have been around a while will remember that Venezuela used to win Miss Universe titles. I looked it up, and they won seven times. Venezuela was the Riviera of South America. They have the world's largest oil reserves, and at current rates of extraction, almost 900 years left in the ground. And that's proven reserves; there is still much to be discovered.

Basically, Venezuela should be richer than Saudi Arabia. So, what went wrong? They became communist, that's what went wrong. As a result, they slipped into the abyss.

If the US does go into Venezuela, so be it. I'm not going to get bent out of shape over it. Call me consistent, Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine was wrong, but I don't think anyone should get involved in a war within Russia. I know, Ukraine is separate, but it's really part of Russia, depending on how you read the history of the region. With Venezuela, it's in the USA's backyard, they probably think it's about time to free up that oil. 

World War III Kicking Off

North Korea are readying for war. Their leader has just announced that South Korea are to be described as their 'number one enemy'.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/01/16/asia-pacific/politics/north-korea-south-korea-relations/

I find it hard to believe that North Korea just came up with this approach on their own. China and Russia must have agreed with the announcement. 

I see commentators saying that North Korea wants engagement and this is another attempt to seek that. I think this is misguided thinking as North Korea have had a windfall with their arms sales to Russia. It appears likely they're now using this income. 

A brief history lesson: the Korean War kicked off when the Russian and Chinese backed North launched an attack on the US-backed South in June 1950. The war swung back and forth but came to a stalemate by 1953. Today, the two sides sit looking at one another, with the conflict technically still live, there has been no peace treaty.

Add to the mix, China's claim on Taiwan and its push into territory in the South China Sea.

Then in other regions, we have the war in Ukraine, with Russia about to win. We have genocide in Gaza with the US, apparently, tacitly supporting this atrocity. The Red Sea is effectively closed to commercial traffic and the US and UK look ineffectual in trying to keep it open.

China and India are still fighting over their borders, as are Iran and Pakistan.

Venezuela has claimed half of Guyana.

Turkey has no idea which side to take, while the Baltic states must be feeling nervous. Why Sweden gave up its neutral stance is a complete mystery.

This is becoming so complicated, it is hard to keep up. I feel like a ball bearing bouncing around in a pinball machine. Another pandemic must be on the cards.

And where does New Zealand and Australia fit in? Not very comfortably is the immediate answer. Neither has the capacity to supply itself or defend its sea lanes. The way things have been left to atrophy is an utter disgrace. We are led by donkeys.