October 27, 2025

Venezuela's Oil

I've been thinking of a reason the US may be about to take Venezuela, and the only explanation I can think of is that they want its oil. Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves by far, yet it only pumps daily about 10% of what it should be pumping. That's because, after decades of economic failure, their oil equipment is broken.

Right then, so what I think the US could do is take control of Venezuelan oil. To do this, they wouldn't need to occupy the whole country. All they'd do is control those areas where the oil fields are located, and also control pipelines and port facilities. Study the map to see where those assets are located.

Venezuela is surrounded by adversaries. Guyana is part of the Commonwealth and a former British colony, and likewise, so is Trinidad and Tobago. Then, to the west is Colombia, which is now fully developed and a member of the OECD. Only Brazil may be an ally of Venezuela, but it's through a jungle and undeveloped areas too far south.

The scenario would be to first crush all of Venezuela's oil exports, then occupy the oil fields. They'd need to take out Venezuela's military assets as well, and leadership in Caracas. But they'd just destroy the government and military assets, not take them on head-to-head.

Why is this a brilliant strategic move? If the US does this, then China is cooked. What has this got to do with China?

China controls the so-called renewables sector, wind and solar energy generation, and it controls EV battery production. If the US starts pumping Venezuelan oil at ten times its daily rate right now, the price of gasoline will halve and wipe out the renewables sector overnight. Why would anyone buy an EV, or install solar panels, or a wind turbine when oil is cheap and limitless?

Venezuela's Oil Assets

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