Start Pumping Oil

Current so-called renewable energy is now economically viable due to the current oil price. But that oil price is held up by Venezuela's lack of output. They only pump about 900,000 barrels of oil a day, when they should be pumping about nine million barrels. Even at that higher rate, they'd have about 100 years of production left based on existing reserves.

The renewables sector is living in a false economy. The price of oil can only come down. That's because Venezuela won't continue to live in the Dark Ages much longer, plus new oil fields are coming on soon in Africa. As well, there is much oil yet to be discovered.

Study the graph which shows how oil reserves amongst the top five countries have increased. The graph starts in 1980; the year before I studied the oil crisis of the 1970s. I had a lecturer, a colossal fool this person was, an intellectual minnow who opined that oil was finished, nothing new was to be found, and it would all be gone by the year 2000. Back then, in 1979, people actually believed that kind of nonsense. There was also the big ice age about to happen, and it was in all the newspapers and magazines; we were preparing to freeze because oil was running out.

Well, how did that work out? 

You know - science!

Top 5 Oil Reserves 1980-2015

Iran: Who Do They Like?

A bit of prejudice here and huge generalisations, but today I was explaining to someone the situation with Iran. In the last 25 years they've developed a lot. Everyone remembers the 1980's, but that's not Iran today. All those old warmongers are retired or long since passed away. 

I explained it like this: Iran looks at its neighbours, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan can be an exercise in trying to get along at the best of times. Pakistan are OK but a bit of a problem too. Armenia shares very little in common, and Azerbaijan relations are frosty as Iran competes for the Caspian Sea against them. Turkey is distrusted, but Iran has grudging respect and needs them for stuff. Iraq is a cousin, maybe even a half-brother, the border is a colonial invention.

Of the major powers, China is a long way away and a source of nice food and cheap stuff, especially electronics. But they're too far away and too different to be fully trusted. Russians are not liked at all and deeply distrusted. Even more hated are the British, they are despised. How so? Look back at the Great Game played out throughout the 1800's. The two Great Powers competed for the region. Britain came out of it controlling Persia, now known as Iran (Afghanistan was found to be uncontrollable). In the early 20th Century, Britain formed the Anglo-Persian Oil Company and began stealing their oil. That company is today branded as BP - you may have heard of it.

But Americans, Iranians quite like them. They hate their government but they like their people. That's why Iranians when moving overseas head to Los Angeles. See Shahs of Sunset as a reality TV show looking at the phenomenon. It was hilarious, almost as good as the Kardashians.

Basically, Iran would like to be left alone, and then they'd start buying American stuff. That's because Americans tend to make stuff that works and it almost always turns up on time. Think Boeing and Caterpillar tractors. 

Long term, how do Iranians see themselves living? Deep down I believe they desire to be Italy, just not the religion. So, they'd end up living like Istanbul instead. 

Anyway, the better approach for the US is to bring Israel to heel and the US start doing business with Iran.