Watch Out World: Philippines Booming

Yes, the Philippines with oil and gas, shipbuilding, high tech, and educated people. The Philippines appears to be the next country to take off:

Teachers Rise

Teachers' Unions have been totally politicised and standing up for what is right is no longer of importance. Nicole Shanahan talks to a teacher at the sharp edge:

The Perfumo Affair

 What's going on with Sir Keir Starmer?

NZ Development: Resource Management Act - Changing the Rules

Finally, after years of talking, New Zealand finally gets some movement in the right direction:

Global Emissions

Global emissions continue to rise, and there is nothing that can be done about it. That's because two regions are developing fast and they're not going to give up their futures for everyone else, and nor should they.

Here's a couple of graphs to illustrate, the first being global emissions of carbon dioxide worldwide:

Emissions have steadily increased, becoming steeper exponentially. The only small downticks are when there is a recession, and other exceptional events.

Then, let's look at how these emissions appear when broken down by region:

If we study these regions carefully, we quickly see that China and the rest of Asia (excluding China and India) account for most of the increase. But, I'd suggest not getting too proud of yourselves in Europe or North America as their reductions I suspect are largely due to offshoring, or moving production to Asia and China. 

So, emitters that matter are: China, Asia (excluding China and India), North America, and Europe.

What can be done? Well, consume less would be a start, and when that's done, use civil engineering, soil science and the like to deal with the changes occurring.

Blaming tourists and giving them a guilt trip over their carbon miles is simply a deflection at best, or at worst it is sending consumers in a direction whereby they're fleeced by unscrupulous businesses. Likewise, greenwashing by companies is all PR, nothing more than that. 

Why can nothing be done? Does any sane individual think more than two billion people will change their behaviour when that behaviour is counter to their own progress? Yeah, give it up, stop with the delusions. 

Feeling Love for Liverpool

Report Card: MAHA's 100 Days

This has been a win for the Trump administration, RFK Jr and team are actually taking on Big Pharma, Big Tech and Big Food. Basically, we are being bombarded with chemicals, bad food and radio waves. Back it off, and people's health will improve. Just look at obesity, back in the 60's and 70's people were skinny compared to today.  

Idea: Lydia Ko and Kai Trump

Listen up drop-kick New Zealand politicians; it is clear that Donald J. Trump sees things on the microeconomic level, rather like a businessman dealing with suppliers and customers. That said, here's a quality idea for free - just give me credit for being the FIRST to think of it:

Idea: ask Lydia Ko, the current LPGA world number 3 golf professional, to play a round of golf with Donald J. Trump's granddaughter, Kai Trump. 

Kai Trump will be on a golf scholarship at the University of Miami soon, while Lydia Ko lives in Orlando, Florida. Maybe Lydia could do nine holes, and maybe let Kai have some tips, like how she does her fading drive, or expert chip onto the green. Donald J. Trump is a golf fanatic and would really appreciate the gesture.

The payoff is to get NZ exports to the US zero-rated from tariffs. This is not to have the baseline 10% removed, the better approach is to seek a concession, suspending the 10%. In customs clearances there are two columns, the first notes the tariff rate, while the next notes whether a concession applies - the goal would be to obtain a concession.

I'm sure Lydia Ko would be on board this, she's a trooper.

Princess Catherine

OK, I get it, the Princess of Wales resembles her mother-in-law as she launched the HMS Glasgow on the River Clyde:

Andrew Gold Interviews Shaun Attwood

Worth listening to, who knows what's going on?

Reform UK Leading

Contrary to what many thought would happen, new political party, Reform UK has now become the most popular party in the UK. This comes off the back of major gains in recent local elections. Personally, I thought they'd implode due to infighting. But while there has been a lot of that, those polled seem to be ignoring it. Voters have had enough, they want a complete change.

The Conservatives are now in serious trouble, with the most recent poll having them in fourth place, behind the LibDems. Reform UK has now become a sort of de facto opposition, even though the Conservatives officially occupy that position.

Some more extreme pundits are saying a revolution is brewing.

James O'Brien's Quality Rant

James O'Brien is an English leftie broadcaster, and this rant of his is an excellent destruction of all modern politicians in the UK, and of its media. 

What O'Brien describes are weak politicians unwilling to do the work; they're uninformed and uninterested in their surroundings. Meanwhile, the media frame the news in a peculiar way, they ignore substantive issues, dismiss facts, and are constantly pushing their own agenda. This has led to the wasteland we see today, right across the developed world. 

O'Brien talks about Brexit, but it really doesn't matter what the issue is as his comments on the quality of politicians is what matters instead, and the way the media work to advance their agenda.

Diddy Trial

I sometimes check in on the trial of P Diddy, the music industry bigwig facing several US federal criminal charges. I embed here, Nate The Lawyer who outlines the charges Diddy faces, and how the trial is progressing.

The short answer: the trial is not going well for Diddy. 

What I want to know is how Diddy managed to make so much money while being so incredibly stupid? All this activity of his was very hard work (excuse the pun), and never going to end well. I saw reports on Cassie Ventura and Dawn Richard's testimony (many may remember, she was one of the two black women in Diddy's 'Coming Home' video) which were very damning. He's facing life in prison when he could be sitting on a beach somewhere, fishing. 

Trump Lowering Prescription Costs

At times I find myself agreeing with some of what Donald Trump is doing, the latest being his announced plan to take action regarding American pharmaceutical prices:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-actions-to-put-american-patients-first-by-lowering-drug-prices-and-stopping-foreign-free-riding-on-american-pharmaceutical-innovation/

REDUCING DRUG PRICES FOR AMERICANS AND TAXPAYERS: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order to bring the prices Americans and taxpayers pay for prescription drugs in line with those paid by similar nations.

Jacinda Ardern @ Yale

America is blessed to be the new home of New Zealand's former prime minister, Jacinda Ardern who recently gave a speech to recent graduates of Yale University.

Of course, being so humble, she talked about her own humility and how empowering it all was, to be so humble, nice and the best person to talk to graduates, seeing as she herself was a graduate with a bachelor of communications from the august institution that is the never talked about University of Waikato. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/561417/jacinda-ardern-talks-imposter-syndrome-at-yale-university-s-graduation

I only have one modest request of Americans. Please be a good friend of NZ and keep her there, in your country. Take one for the team America, you have the resources to keep this one wrapped up in your halls of academia, endlessly pontificating about anything and everything, but ultimately being ignored.

NZ cannot have her back as, she, more than anyone else in recent NZ history, did more to destroy modern post-war New Zealand than any other single individual. Her towering achievement, leaving the country broken, divided and bankrupt ethically and financially. Her campaign promoting her ultimate wonderfulness and saintly perfection has a tiny audience in NZ, and so it is over to the Americans to behold and be amazed, and grow warm from her unctuous glow and her endless kindness, especially of the kind that kindly fills her bank balance.

Mining Ventures West Coast New Zealand

Finally we see some economic development occurring on the mineral rich West Coast of New Zealand.

TiGa is seeking consent to mine ilmenite, or black sand near Greymouth; separating titanium and other heavy minerals, including gold. The output will be sent by rail to Lyttelton or Timaru port on the east coast of the South Island: https://www.tigamm.co.nz/about

Then, already up and running are WMS Group, who are doing much the same thing, but instead are sending their product to the port of Nelson, but in future will be loading bulk carriers off the coast for export to China:  https://www.wmsnz.com/critical-minerals/

NZ has the world's largest resource of black sand, located both onshore and offshore. Finally, the quality of this resource is becoming known.

Just to add, there are natural oil and gas shows in the West Coast region, it is a prime strike zone but no-one is exploratory drilling. It also contains uranium, with commercial concentrations in the Buller district, near Kahurangi National Park. As you drive from Westport to Murchison, uranium ores sit by the roadside.

NBA Failing

The NBA is boring, too many threes. Well, my suggestion is to introduce a three point shot light. If players miss a 3-pointer, the light goes out and the teams cannot score a three again until they make another basket. 

Oh, and police double dribble, carrying the ball and travelling, the players now often double dribble and taking more than two steps seems routine. 

China's Ultra High Speed Trains

Faster than a Boeing 737, China now has Maglev trains under development that travel at 620 mph (997 kph). But their ordinary fast rail network is now 45,000 kms long, with a further 25,000 kms being built. Fast rail is better as trains tend to take the passenger from the centre of cities, to the centre of cities, and they can make several stops along the way. Planes have serious limitations as you have to get to the airport, and get in from the airport and stops along the way are more problematic too.

Maglev has other applications as well. I've long had the idea to use this technology in quarries and mines. 

US Agriculture Challenged

This video is dated but it sums up where US farmers are at right now. The trade war has made things much worse. 

Farmers are the collateral damage, in effect, and China will not be back buying a lot of US output.

Keir Starmer's Island of Strangers

Now the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer has normalised discussion about immigration, the issues can be openly discussed. In a recent speech, Starmer warned of Britain becoming an island of strangers. 

Back in the 1960's prominent Conservative politician, Enoch Powell made his Rivers of Blood speech about issues related to immigration. He has been pilloried for that speech, and was effectively cancelled from polite society, so will the same happen to Starmer?

The question does need to be asked. 

From Enoch Powell's speech (bold added): But while, to the immigrant, entry to this country was admission to privileges and opportunities eagerly sought, the impact upon the existing population was very different. For reasons which they could not comprehend, and in pursuance of a decision by default, on which they were never consulted, they found themselves made strangers in their own country.

From Keir Starmer (bold added): ...these rules become even more important. Without them, we risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.

While the two speeches differ, they are materially the same in that they call for national unity, and both tend to 'other' outsiders or those who come from elsewhere. What do you think?

Here's an interesting response published on the LBC website: Keir Starmer’s ‘island of strangers’ immigration warning is a xenophobic dog whistle

Another critique: https://theconversation.com/keir-starmers-immigration-plans-research-shows-you-dont-beat-the-far-right-by-becoming-them-256499

Scott Bessent Looked Shaken

I've just seen the announcement of the interim trade deal between the US and China. In that deal, they've agreed on a 90 day pause, with tariff rates falling to 10% on the Chinese side, and 30% on the US side. That's down 115 percentage points from the current highs. It also appears other measures have been suspended, such as the refusal to supply rare earth elements.

Looking and listening to Scott Bessent the US Secretary of the Treasury, he appeared shaken, his voice was quavering, and his demeanour weak. What I think has happened is China has read the US the Riot Act and said, in effect, you need us, we don't need you. And the US buckled. 

Now what I think will happen is for negotiations to take forever. And while that happens, China will punish the US. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/12/business/us-china-trade-deal-announcement-intl-hnk

US-China Trade Deal

When I read this kind of thing, I think to myself, do the Americans understand how China is likely to approach this? Firstly, they'll agree on something, and then back at home they'll put the price up for US importers, especially on those critical materials. No way will they just sit back and take a loss. Then, when it comes to opening up, they'll do the opposite by making life very difficult for American companies. They'll use environmental, health and safety compliance to prevent American companies access. Currently, Caterpillar has their Asian base headquartered in China, they moved there from Japan about 20 years ago. They'll begin to make theirs, and other US companies lives difficult.

Shipping will be restricted and de-prioritised. US ships will be loaded last, made to wait at the back of the queue. Lastly, China will shop in the US but never buy as everything is unsuitable - they'll say. This trade war initiated by Trump will be very expensive for the US; US consumers will pay higher prices, receive slower shipments, and US companies hoping to operate within China, or sell them anything at all, will face major hurdles.

And the 10% baseline tariff is unworkable. If the US had made it 2%, likely few would object, but 10% is basically saying go away, we don't want your goods.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/11/us-china-trade-talks-geneva-intended-de-escalate-tensions-lutnick

The White House has announced that a trade deal with China has been struck after two days of talks in Geneva, while Beijing has hailed “important first steps.”

DOGE

Turns out that DOGE probably wasn't about spending cuts, as those cuts have been cancelled. What it may have been about is building a massive database for building a social credit system, basically monitoring and controlling everyone. 

It does make you wonder as US defense spending has increased. Where are the savings?

Diddy Trial

 A key witness in the P Diddy trial cannot be found. 

UK-US Trade Deal

What happened closely reflects what I predicted:

What do I think will likely happen? NZ will sit on the fence but buckle to US demands, thus wrecking the entire NZ economy. Australia will buckle sooner and they'll go downhill as a result. The UK will buckle immediately. 

kenhorlor.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2025-04-30T01:56:00%2B12:00&max-results=15

NZ Beef to US

New Zealand beef exports to the US are booming right now. Sheep and beef farmers are receiving record prices, largely due to a drought in the US affecting stock numbers, and the cost of farming in the US. This news comes off the back of record log exports to China, now that China has stopped buying from the US.

So, not all bad news then. 

https://mia.co.nz/record-month-for-new-zealand-red-meat-exports-for-march/

Beef exports to the US rose by 55 per cent by volume to 23,795 tonnes and the value was up 105 per cent to $285 million.

What we already knew goes mainstream

China Taking Over

I'm from the world of concrete and so I know this to be true: in the last three years China has poured more concrete than the US poured over the hundred years of the twentieth century.

The world is turning on its axis, China is now ascendant.

And when it comes to universities, China rules. We'll all need to start learning Chinese as much of their research is in that language. Heh, I can read a little Japanese so I am at least familiar with Chinese characters. You know the type of thing, Chinese on the page looks like a chicken walked into a pot of ink and then wandered across the page. The good part of knowing this is that at least it's not as hard as English to learn.

Don't Believe A Word

India v Pakistan 2025

Oh dear, predictions of an Indian strike on targets in Pakistan appear to have been correct. I hope they can sort things out. We don't need these two being at war. Is it a proxy conflict? Pakistan is traditionally backed by China, while India has been backed by Russia in the past, but these days they've been buddying up to the US and Israel. 

While India is much larger than Pakistan, on the ground it is usually Pakistan that performs well. If we go back to the days of the British Raj, the British used to recruit heavily from the regions that now include Pakistan, along with the Sikh population. 

Met Gala 2025

I'm not heavily into fashion, but it was good to see two New Zealanders in the spotlight at the Met Gala in New York this year.

Rosé looked lovely https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/gettyimages-2213619226-68196b45b68cd.jpg?crop=0.849xw:0.882xh;0.0731xw,0.118xh&resize=980:* 

Lorde looked the best overall, well done Kiwi: https://api.photon.aremedia.net.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2025/05/gettyimages-2213605542-6819465e68e72-scaled.jpg?fit=650%2C975&resize=650%2C975

Trump Movie Tariff

Now we hear of 100% US tariffs being place on 'foreign made' movies. This begs the question; what exactly is foreign: are we talking about movies in a language other than English, or movies produced by studios outside of US control? 

As I understand it, these days movies are made all over the show, with special effects and various scenes being filmed in multiple locations. The industry is still centred in the US, but these same US capital sources produce the movies everywhere. Is a movie deemed US-made if 50.01% of it is 'made' in the US?

I saw a recent video where bicycle parts from China were shipped to Mexico, assembled into a bicycle there and then imported to the US, thus legally evading China tariffs as the parts had been transformed into something.

Movies may go the same way, with components being made elsewhere, but the movie being assembled in the US. I don't know the industry all that well, but I'm thinking now is not the time to invest in the cinema business.

UK Labour and the Tories Panic

If the UK Labour and Conservative parties aren't panicking, then they should be. Over the weekend, Reform UK led by Nigel Farage has achieved an amazing result across England in local authority elections. Reform now control ten councils, and have a large share of others. Off this base, Reform can now get ready for the next general election. Councillors on the ground, being reported by local media, out there meeting people every day, can drive change and get out the vote.

Nigel Farage is the biggest influence on UK politics in the 21st century. We are witnessing a revolution, and other countries should take note. 

How long has UK prime minister Keir Starmer got? He must be gone, he's the worst prime minister the UK has ever had.

New Zealand Defence Announcement

New Zealand's government announced spending on replacement helicopters today. The announcement comes before the announcement of what will actually be bought, at some point in the future. So, let's see if I've got this right; today, an announcement was made, announcing a plan will be put in place, then that body will announce at some distant point, what it plans to purchase. Then, no doubt, it will then be announced that the purchase is going ahead, followed by an announcement that a contract has been signed. 

What New Zealand has at the moment is government by announcement. Nothing actually gets done. Instead, intentions are announced as if that means something, which of course it doesn't. 

The government today, announced a later announcement, which will announce something in the future, which will then be announced when confirmed. That's what happened today.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/559866/defence-force-maritime-helicopters-to-be-replaced-at-cost-of-over-2-billion

The government has set aside $2 billion from this year's Budget to replace the navy's Seasprite helicopters, boosting their disaster response and aid capabilities.

A further $957 million over four years will be spent on Defence Force activities, personnel and property.

A spokesperson later confirmed this largely operational spending was additional money in the coming Budget, and was separate to the $12b estimated spend over 15 years from the Defence Capability Plan.

Defence Minister Judith Collins announced the spending in a pre-Budget announcement alongside Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, Associate Defence Minister Chris Penk, and top brass from the Defence Force at Whenuapai Air Force base in Auckland.

She confirmed the government would look to purchase five new helicopters, but exactly when they would arrive would depend on a business case being developed before the end of the year.

(bold added)

Local Elections England 2025

Update: We are witnessing a revolution in the UK. Labour could barely get a councillor elected, while the Conservatives lost all their Tory controlled councils. The Liberal Democrats now control three councils, while Reform UK now control ten. There is now a turquoise coloured wall right across the middle of England, providing a launch pad for the Reform party at the next General Election. These councils can, in the immediate sense, start to resist all the Labour lunacy.

Labour are being wiped out in local elections in England. Counting is currently underway and they're in fourth or fifth place in terms of council seats won.

Reform UK are the clear winners, with the Conservatives currently second.

With a result this bad, UK prime minister, Keir Starmer must be gone. Labour always pride themselves on controlling councils, and off that base they launch their campaigns to control the country. But, it appears that will no longer be the case. All this net zero nonsense at the local level can go heave, and not before time.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2025/england/results

Bob Jones Dead at 85

New Zealand's larger than life property investor, writer and raconteur, Bob Jones has died after a short illness, aged 85. A lot will be written about him, and a few may mention he backed the Wellington trans-gender madam, Carmen to run for mayor of Wellington back in 1977. She lost, but people noticed a long delay in announcing the result, they smelt a rat. On the Monday back at work, everyone in Wellington would say they'd voted for Carmen. Jones believed the result was rigged, and no-one doubted it.

I forget the year, but back at about the same time as Carmen ran for mayor, Jones had the side of a building in Wellington painted with the sign; Mat Rata Reads Comics. Mat Rata was a Labour politician at the time, and Jones had seen him reading a comic at the airport. 

Then, leading up to the 1984 general election, Jones formed the New Zealand Party. Broadly speaking, we'd call this party libertarian today. It was established to remove NZ prime minister Robert Muldoon from office. They split the right-wing vote and Labour were elected. With its main goal achieved, and with Labour stealing all of its policies, the party soon folded thereafter.

Since then, Jones established himself as a critic and commentator, sometimes wrong, often right, but always humorous and a good read. He wrote several books, both non-fiction and fiction, but his best book was his first, Jones on Property. (1977).

Jones on Property is about investing in real estate, and it is the best book written on the subject. Key takeaway: there is glamour in industrial. He goes into why investors should avoid residential, and looks at the pros and cons of retail, office and industrial investment. Of all options, he preferred industrial. For any investor, this book is so valuable because he tells the reader why different people in the industry do what they do, and what they're thinking about. He looks at the banker, the investor, the tenant, and the property vendor. His insight is valuable, revealing, for instance, that prospective tenants of an industrial building will check out the office space first, before even checking whether the actual reason for the building existing meets their particular needs. He concludes that new carpet for the office will reward the investor better than anything else done to the building, dollar for dollar. He also wonders why investors insist on checking out the whole building, as he often bought industrial real estate after simply driving past. He commented that he'd yet to find an industrial building selling minus a back wall. 

Another important reason for investing in industrial (and I've found this out myself); the tenants are often very handy types, with hammers and screwdrivers and all the tools. Thus, they clear blocked toilets, fix that leaking roof, and basically never complain. Plus, their factory equipment is often bolted to the floor and so they won't be leaving in a hurry when you put up the rent. 

But of course, he does remind the reader of the three rules of investing in real estate: location, location, location. Thus, multi-level office towers in Upper Hutt are no good. He talks a lot about investing in the type of building surrounded by other similar types of building. Don't invest in an orphan.

Radio New Zealand's website has this short piece on him, I haven't read it carefully, it's probably all lies:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/559715/businessman-and-politician-sir-bob-jones-dead-at-85

 

Do Trade Deficits Matter?

According to Victor Davis Hanson, trade deficits do matter if they're sustained while national debt to GDP is high, like that of the US debt to GDP ratio of 110%.

China's Mayor Economy

I learnt something listening to Prof. Keyu Jin describing how China achieved growth, and how it continues to develop fast. She describes a model centred around mayors, who are not simply time serving politicians, but entrepreneurs competing with one another. Cities and regions are not sitting back living off property or real estate taxes, but instead they promote successful businesses which are then taxed. Business profits come before property tax. 

Basically, the west stifles entrepreneurship, while China rewards it.