NBA: Steven Adams Trade Rumours

OKC have been knocked out of the 2019 playoffs and once again we have Steven Adams being blamed for the losses. People commenting are mostly keyboard warriors who know little or nothing about the game of basketball.

Firstly, let's deal with why OKC were always going to be eliminated. It's because the team is not stacked with talent, that's why. They only have three top players, Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Steven Adams. You can't go deep in the NBA playoffs so light handed. Teams that win NBA championships are brimming with shooters and top defenders.

If we look at Westbrook, he's been a flop in the post season without Kevin Durant. But who is worse? The coach. Who in their right mind would bench Steven Adams in the final quarter of game 5 against Portland. He's the starting centre, you go to your best players and trust them when it matters. The coach is toast, likely now looking for a new job. If he isn't then the owner is a fool too.

Many people say that players like Adams can't defend the pull up 3, they can't space the floor etc. They're implying that the days of genuine bigs are over. Oh really, then why do Golden State have Andrew Bogut starting at centre, explain that! There is simply no replacing the big nasty man in the middle doing the hard work. Deal with it.

So assuming OKC will trade Adams, given they're a team of losers and wish to remain that way; my suggestion would be to look at the Lakers. They need an Adams and if a championship beckons they're usually happy to pay the luxury tax that applies to exceeding the salary cap. They'll put a team around LeBron James and Adams could be one of the support cast. Or look to other big market teams that can afford Adams on US$25mil annually.

Peter Jackson vs Wellington City Council

Peter Jackson is involved in a running argument with the Mayor of Wellington over plans for the redevelopment of Shelly Bay.

I had to laugh when reading about this. It must be an age related thing as I can relate to Jackson's concerns, and he has asked the Council to open its books:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/112200571/peter-jackson-to-council-open-your-books

Many will say that Peter Jackson is simply pushing his weight around. The way I look at it; finally someone with the weight behind him can hold a council to task. Keep up the good fight Sir Peter.

Christchurch Shooter Theory

Persistent rumours in Christchurch, New Zealand say that there was more than one shooter involved in the terror attack of March 15, 2019 where 50 people were killed and many more wounded. This theory comes about because it seemed that the two mosques were attacked at the same time. Yesterday the Police put out the route the shooter took and so what I then did is drive that route and time it.

What I found is the route disclosed by the Police takes 19 minutes and 10 seconds to complete (19'10"). Therefore, there was only one shooter and the Linwood mosque was attacked 11 minutes after the Deans Ave atrocity.

This was the route I took; Deans, Harper, Bealey, Fitzgerald, Linwood, Aldwins, Ensors and Brougham. Along Brougham to the eventual location of capture on Brougham street just short of Strickland street.

Being a visitor to Christchurch he could have got to the Linwood Ave mosque from Deans Ave quicker by taking an alternative route, but that would only be 30 seconds or so faster. There are several sections of the drive where it is possible to exceed the speed limit easily and they are; Harper, Linwood, Aldwins and Ensors. Taking this into account and that the shooter would likely speed where possible (note there was no damage to his car), my time and the time he took are likely the same when allowing for time of day factors.

So rest easy, the Police have it right, there was one shooter and he covered the distance all by himself. Why then did Christchurch have helicopters in the sky every night for days afterward? I have no idea exactly, but at the time I thought the Police must be tracking the white supremacists dispersing their guns and drugs. 

Kim Kardashian Studying Law

Kim Kardashian is studying law. What? I'm impressed, and she's doing it the hard way, by 'reading the law ' the old-fashioned way. That is where you work in a law office and study as you go. And why are people hating on her doing this? Within the California system, she'll have to sit the 'baby bar' at the completion of her first year, and then complete a further 3 years under supervision which culminates in the full bar exams. It's hard to do this, and I believe by doing things this way more fail than complete. Study hard Ms Kardashian, hit those books and listen to fellow lawyers carefully.

NBA Playoffs 2019

Looking at the brackets for the NBA Playoffs in 2019; in the west the surprise packages could be Houston and Portland. In the east things look pretty even, and less daunting than the west. It looks to be a western conference march to the championship once again, whoever wins the west, wins the prize.

TV: Alone Patagonia

Late comment I know but I've just watched the Alone TV show where individuals try to survive in remote Patagonia. It was all looking good, with the contestants doing really well, and then the show flopped at the end. The last two were a man and a woman and the producers seem to have pulled the plug by disqualifying the woman on the grounds of a low BMI. This handed the victory to the guy who was starting to look shaky. The woman was looking pretty good. Was it rigged?

The show suddenly announced that if a contestant falls to a BMI of 17 they would be pulled as that was life threatening. Really? Then why did the female contestant look so healthy? The whole exercise looked suspect, and it seemed like they wanted to wrap the show up as it had dragged on to 86 days, the point where they disqualified the woman.

I looked this up; the female's BMI of 16.80 is only moderately anorexic. Not life threatening at all. Severe is below 16, extreme below 15 - and then you're in trouble. So the contestant being DQ'd at 16.8 is nonsense. They simply didn't want her to win, the man was looking psychologically weak and physically he'd slowed up a lot while the woman looked healthy.

Across all seasons I've noticed other issues with the show. Some contestants don't appear there to win, they tap out as soon as they've shown off enough. And for some it must be a holiday as they're gone almost immediately with one guy not even spending a night outside. Now finally I think we can see that the whole exercise is flawed. Instead of the contest being a struggle with self, it came down to who could start fat and last the longest. Basically the beefy dude could last longer as he had fat to lose - is that what the show is about? It makes the whole Alone thing pointless.

And are these people really so good at surviving outdoors? How come few can actually catch anything?

Virginia Wins NCAA Basketball, Kiwi Connection

The University of Virginia are the 2019 winners of the United States NCAA men's basketball championship. Turns out there is a Kiwi connection here as New Zealander Jack Salt plays for the team. He came off the bench in the final and put in 4 minutes. Virginia coach Tony Bennett also has a connection with NZ, he played for North Harbour in the NZ National Basketball League and started his coaching career there as well, coaching the team in 1998 and 1999.

The Virginia win affirms the importance of defense. They play a system referred to as the Pack Line D; called Pack Line as the team line up in a pack just inside the three point line when defending. I have no doubt that such a configuration must look intimidating to the team bringing the ball up the court. Apart from that there isn't a lot different to other man-to-man defenses. With the Pack Line they put pressure on the player with the ball and players not guarding the ball-carrier sag off to help out if needed. Then they do not allow any easy looks to the shooter. They double-team any player receiving the ball at the low post, and attach like limpet mines to any cutter. Oh and they prefer to hedge off screens as well. Below I've embedded a useful YouTube description of how Pack Line works. It's a good system, with reservations:

This kind of defense can be exposed if coming up against a team of good perimeter shooters. That double-teaming of the low post leaves an attacker free, the ball can be kicked out to him, and an easy two results. That is if the attacking team has good shooters of course and this is where I think the Pack Line has been so successful. The USA has seen a decline in the accuracy of perimeter shooters, these days players like to drive, cut and take it to the hoop. No doubt the Virginia coach is exploiting this weakness by inviting teams to shoot from outside, and then boxing out to get the rebounds. Virginia then exploit this weakness further at the other end as they have good shooters. It's simple arithmetic.

What could beat Pack Line? Good shooters as said above, as well as wide body post players who are hard to double-team. Maybe a wide body at both low posts. Note I'm talking wide bodies, not just about height. Wide bodies are also hard to deal with in relation to setting screens, making them the key in any team offense (like book ends).

MMP and the Failure of Smaller Political Parties

New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system has been around since 1996. It was meant to be fairer than its predecessor first-past-the-post system where a one vote majority means the winner takes the prize. It turns out nothing much changed, the two main parties, Labour and National have dominated since the Second World War and continued to do so under MMP.

It wasn't meant to be like that under MMP. New Zealanders were promised a plethora of parties vibrantly competing to secure the all-important party vote along with regional candidates contesting local issues for local people in local electorates. Everyone would get two votes when previously they had only one. Can you hear the cheers spontaneously erupting at this good news? 

Except the promises were empty and the people were duped. MMP ushered in an era of even more power for ruling elites. Local people got shafted, and their local issues were totally forgotten unless they happened to be in Auckland, in which case they became sacrosanct must-do's.

What went wrong and why have all attempts to break the Labour-National duopoly failed? There are four key areas to consider:

1. It's about MMP

Check the name again; mixed-member-proportional. It's not only about members and neither is it only about proportionality. All wannabe smaller parties forget this and go hell for leather at either trying to win seats, or building their party vote. To grow into a large third party they must be able to win and hold electorate seats AND hold their party vote across the country. Failure to do both means they wither on the vine and expire.

Examples of failure include; NZ First in 1996, they took all Maori electorates as well as Tauranga which was held by its leader Winston Peters. In total they secured 17 seats. Their failure, they could not hold the Maori seats. Then we have the Maori party which despite winning many Maori electorate seats, could not pick up enough party votes to make an impression beyond that.

2. The Media

Smaller parties struggle to get positive media coverage. If they are in the media then it's likely to be with some kind of spin attached. An example of this is the constant reference to Green list member of parliament, Golriz Ghahraman as an Iranian refugee. Or ACT's sole MP and leader David Seymour being portrayed as a simpleton (for those that don't know - he has a Bachelor of Engineering (Electrical and Electronic) and a BA (Philosophy) from the University of Auckland).

Any smaller party has to be able to infiltrate across the spectrum of news cycles - see 1 above.

3. Political Appointments and Alliances

Labour and National use their connections to maximum effect. National push their connections with farming, business and certain professions such as law and accounting. When in government they appoint their own people to groups and receive reward in favourable decisions and the corresponding coverage. Meanwhile Labour do the same thing, they have established union connections and they have the nurses, teachers and social workers in their hip pockets. 

In this power play smaller parties cannot compete, in effect they're getting squeezed at both ends.

4. Government Departments and Flow of Information

Smaller parties work in a vacuum, they're starved of information and then find themselves walking into ambushes all the time. An example of this is the leaking of the superannuation details of NZ First leader Winston Peters.

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To get beyond small and to become a contender, a political party must bridge the gap between it and the two main parties. It must do this by winning at least 3 electoral seats and more than 10% of the popular vote, and then hold that position or increase it to become established. At that level it can no longer be ignored at the national level and at the local level it would have the reach to also influence voters on the ground. What we are talking about here is economies of scale. Has any smaller party done this? Since the end of the Second World War, only Social Credit came close during the late 70's and early 80's. They held two electorates during this time and their popular support rose to a high of 20% at the 1981 general election. So close and yet so far and that wasn't under MMP, so it can be done, it just requires clever use of resources and effective candidate selection.

Guns, David Tipple and Priorities

Just a thought; if David Tipple, the owner of Gun City stores across New Zealand fails the fit and proper person test to hold a licence to sell firearms, then should Pak'nSave and Countdown lose their licence to sell food? The logic is that Pak'nSave and Countdown kill people by causing obesity, far more people in fact than a David Tipple bought gun ever did. Hmm?

The NZ government plans on buying back guns after the Christchurch Mosques attack. I'm not convinced that is a good use of the estimated $300-700 million cost. Wouldn't it make more sense to ensure gun licence conditions were met, and put the money that would go into a buyback, into NZ schools instead?

Rocket Lab Launches Another Satellite

Looks like Rocket Lab is now fully functional, propelling New Zealand into the space age.

https://spacewatch.global/2019/04/rocket-lab-successfully-launches-darpas-r3d2-satellite-from-new-zealand/

To just see the actual lift-off in the embedded video below, skip to 12:20.