Doom

I've been a prophet of doom for some time now, mainly because the world economy has just been bumping along the bottom. Now the real slowdown has started, kicked off by this new virus from China, called the Coronavirus.

In NZ this has had the immediate effect of shutting down tourism, but also log exports. That's because there's no-one in China at work ready to handle the shipments. Expect this situation to worsen across a whole range of goods.

Maybe people will wake up and stop relying on China for everything. If we had our own industry, such as milling our own timber, then this kind of event would have a minimal effect.

Australia Bushfire Sun

The sun setting tonight in Christchurch, NZ is tinged with the colour orange, the result of the smoke from the Australia bushfires. I've never seen this before and thought to take a pic:

Sun Setting in Christchurch NZ, coloured orange by smoke from Australia bushfires

Brexit Countdown

BREXIT CountdownCountdown

Brexit Arrived

A timely Brexit song, I can't believe this has happened in my lifetime and at the same time Prince Harry decided to throw his life away and to try and become a Kardashian, the twit.

Kobe Bryant

Just heard that Kobe Bryant and his daughter Gianna have died in a helicopter crash in southern California. Dreadful news.

Update @ 20th Feb 2020: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/27/us/calabasas-helicopter-crash-kobe-bryant-monday/index.html

Nine on board, the victims look to have been travelling to a basketball game on board Kobe's helicopter.

Australian Open

Nick Kyrgios is looking good, I hope he goes deep this time, or even wins the whole show. I like how he plays fast, dictating the pace of the game. I laughed when he mocked Nadal over his pre-serve routines, which are tantamount to poor sportsmanship. How could the chair umpire give Kyrgios a time warning? He plays so fast, it isn't possible for him to be holding the game up. C'mon.

Good to see the back of that monumentally bad sport Serena Williams. This time beaten by the 27th seed Qiang Wang. I'll say it again, it's time for Williams to retire, she's old and slow. The seedings she's receiving are a nonsense, by being seeded so high she's always able to collect enough ranking points by drawing much easier opponents in the early rounds. As soon as she comes up against players of real class, she buckles. That's because players these days have her power, as well as the finesse she lacks. Give it up Serena Williams, for the good of the game.

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle Debacle

The full picture is now emerging and I have to say, I'm not impressed. The deal is the Sussexes will not be using their HRH titles, but they're not being stripped of them either; they won't be taking public funding but they will take funding from Prince Charles' Duchy of Cornwall. They're going to pay back the money spent on Frogmore Cottage, but it's unclear how and when that money will be paid.

I don't think this will work. The reason, too many areas of potential conflicts of interest, real or perceived. The only way for this to work is for Harry to become Harry Mountbatten-Windsor, a normal old Mister. Nothing more than that. 

Why do I say that? Using the Dukedom is a demotion. Harry and his wife become 'Your Grace.' That's got to sting and puts people they deal with in a difficult position, how do they address the pair exactly? Of course stripping away the titles makes the pair far less marketable, but wait, they're not meant to trade off their royal status. So explain, how does this work again?

Looking at the two, I have serious concerns about Harry. Meghan hasn't been part of the royal family for all that long and she's done well on her own, she's a survivor. But Harry has lived in a gilded cage his whole life, he probably thinks he knows what real life is like, but in reality he knows little of it. What is Harry meant to do now he can't be a royal? What can he do? There is nothing in his CV to suggest he can manage outside of the royal family. 

You want evidence of this I hear you say; he inherited a fortune from his mother, Diana, and the Queen Mother. These funds he now has full control of, so why isn't he already financially independent? What's this talk of seeking financial independence, he's only got himself, his wife who is not helpless and one small child. Harry is a fully grown man, what has he been doing with his money all this time?

Then it is reported Harry is considering buying a massively overpriced house in Vancouver, Canada. If he buys such a thing, I'd call that all the evidence anyone needs to prove he's financially illiterate. 

What does Harry know about? Land and horses. That's about it. Sensible is using a large proportion of his money on a farm in England, breeding horses, polo ponies and the like. Buying houses, even thinking about buying houses in Vancouver is simply throwing your money away. Where I see this heading, is in less than 2 years Harry will be back amongst the royals, cutting ribbons but much poorer for the experience of stepping back.

And what of Archie? How is he to be raised and educated? Remember, technically the couple are still HRH, he's seventh in line to the throne right now. When he grows older he may want to work as a royal, in that case he'd start to outrank his father who eschews his HRH status, odd indeed.

The Sussex Royal brand becomes problematic, isn't such a brand effectively trading on royal status? And funding from the Duchy of Cornwall, it's not really private money, this will become a sore point over time and an area where I feel Harry has shown he isn't thinking clearly. He can't be talking about financial independence but still relying on his father for handouts. 

What has been proposed looks rushed. It hasn't been fully thought through.

NBA TV Ratings Down

I'm not surprising to hear that NBA TV ratings are down, and according to the following link those lower ratings are confirmed by general activity on Reddit.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-the-nba-be-worried-about-tv-ratings-reddit-activity-says-so/?addata=espn:nba:teams

I think the reason for that lack of interest, despite the league being incredibly close, is fans have worked out the games are essentially fixed. By that I mean there appears to be a tacit arrangement in the regular season for stars to get open looks. Only when the post season commences are games hotly contested. Compare the NBA with soccer in the English Premier League, there each game is do or die stuff.

Back in 2016 I commented: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2016/04/basketball-nba-games.html

Following this, in 2017 I monitored two games and found them rigged: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/02/golden-state-warriors-v-m and https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2017/02/denver-nuggets-v-cleveland-cavaliers.html

In 2015 I devised a basketball game to make the game more entertaining: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2015/07/new-basketball.html

How to get the ratings back? The NBA has to stop being obsessed with scoring. Proper contests where defense is actually played would be a start.

Gmail Still Rubbish

The most annoying thing with Gmail is how you can't easily get rid of items under the promotions and social tabs. Recently I went in, marked unread items as read, deleted them, then went to the bin and emptied it. All gone then, or so I thought. Two days later I log back in, there they are again, everything back, marked as unread. I've mentioned this to others and they say the same thing happens to them. Gmail is the only free web based email that pulls this trick; they're keeping users on the site longer and forcing them to read emails you just want gone, for whatever reason.

Prince Harry and Meghan Stepping Back

Thing is, you can't be a little bit royal. You're either part of the family firm or you aren't. It's about time Harry and Meghan made their minds up, in or out.

Note the reaction from Buckingham Palace to the recent announcement by the pair: https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/118673807/prince-harry-and-meghan-stepping-back-as-senior-members-of-the-royal-family I like the phrase "these are complicated issues." That's an understatement if ever there was one. Here are a few issues;

Who is going to pick up the cost of security when in the US?

Is Harry actually resigning, he's still in the top 6, an important position within the line of succession. It's once out of the top 6 that things change. If he is resigning, does he keep his titles?

Financial independence: Harry inherited a small fortune from his mother Diana, why is he not already financially independent, he's had long enough to manage that much.

Does Harry know anything about living in the USA, can he even open a cheque account? Reports say he's going to be based in Canada, given their head of state is the Queen, doesn't this look a bit like remaining shackled to the Crown? Hmm?

Branding: will Meghan use her royal status to make money for herself. What are the boundaries, and if she does so, will she have to pay royalties to the Crown?

For their own explanation of what this 'new funding model' means, Harry and Meghan have launched a new website, read the relevant part here: https://sussexroyal.com/funding/

What do I think? It looks rather dodgy to me. Implied is that when they visit or cut a ribbon, they'll be attaching their invoice. That's quite improper and quite frankly, they shouldn't be able to maintain their status. They're simply becoming ordinary celebrities and that's all, just Harry and Meghan under this proposed 'structure.'

I also note they claim they're not currently funded by public money. Technically correct but that's not how the people see it, the Duchy of Cornwall, the Sovereign Grant etc from which the couple are funded, all of it is public money. My reaction to reading their website was 'get off the grass.'

Women in Concrete

I'm talking women in the business of concrete, not women actually in concrete, that would be injurious to their health (for those who don't know; concrete mix burns and can kill you if you get too much of it on your skin). There are many good women in concrete, one I recently read about owns Tec-Crete Transit-Mix Corp of Queens, New York, NY.

http://teccretenyc.com/pages/about-us/

Founded in 1998, owner Ms Linda Gisonda won a Women Business Enterprise (WBE) award in 2013. Yay. 

Tec-Crete have a total of 4 dry batch plants across two locations. As their name suggests, this will be an operation where the ingredients for the concrete are discharged into the truck, water is then added to the agitator on the back of the truck and the mix is completed while the truck drives to the site (alternatively, a dry batch may make its way to the job site with water and the mix completed at the destination). What dry batching allows for is longer delivery distances, however that generally comes at the expense of payload, as a heavier truck is required to do the mixing.

Another way of doing things, very popular this, is to completely mix at the plant, the mix is then discharged into the agitator on the back of the truck. This type of plant is called central mix. The advantage of this is fast batching, and the mix can be discharged into anything, even a dump truck. Another advantage is smaller trucks fitted with lighter agitators can be used to deliver the same or greater payload, however they can only do so over a much shorter distance compared to transit mix. 

So there we have the age-old quandary, tyranny of distance vs capital cost vs operating costs. Which is better? My father always preferred central mix and spoke of its advantages often. Transit mix certainly comes into its own if distance is a factor (or waiting times before discharging loads), which is often the case in Australia for instance.

Like this:

Distance or waiting times, lower cost of batching plant, heavier trucks required (less payload), higher cost of running trucks = Transit Mix.

Short distance or waiting times, higher cost of batching plant, lighter trucks (more payload), lower cost of running trucks - Central Mix.

Australia Bush Fires

The smoke from the bush fires ravaging Australia has reached where I am right now. Last night I couldn't go outside as the air was bad, and get this, I'm in Christchurch on the east coast of New Zealand's South Island. That's 3-4 days by sea, 3-4 hours by air, across the expanse of the Tasman Sea. I'm not young and have seen a bit of this and that, but this is one thing I've never experienced before. Perhaps a little bit of haze in the sky, OK, but not the actual smoke in the air and feeling it is hard to breath. These fires are truly catastrophic.

The Cancelling of J.K. Rowling

People must have gone mad during this year's celebrations of Saturnalia. To a certain extent I agree with the following writer on the subject:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/jk-rowling-cancelled-woke-outrage-mob-saying-biological-sex-real

"Rowling being cancelled is particularly ironic given that she has thrown her weight behind virtually every ludicrous ‘woke’ crusade in recent years, including by claiming that her character Hermione was black despite her being described as having a “white face” in the Harry Potter books."

What was Rowling's crime? Saying this in defense of Maya Forstater who lost her court case, brought by Forstater after losing her job for having alleged transphobic views:

Dress however you please.
Call yourself whatever you like.
Sleep with any consenting adult who’ll have you.
Live your best life in peace and security.
But force women out of their jobs for stating that sex is real?

With any set of views there are bound to be those more extreme than others. Clearly, Rowling was attempting to be more reasonable, and ended up being shouted down by those who took exception. The internet has always been a bit of a shouting match, but often that shouting takes place in a sealed room, with the sound not emitting to the wider world. The result is people end up shouting at one another, with not a single thing being changed as a result. I think this will be one such case.

For Rowling, this will have been an experience she won't forget. But she hasn't destroyed the left, c'mon, that was far more effectively managed by Jeremy Corbyn and his crew of ex student politicians turned Labour fruit-loops. Rowling wrote a ripping yarn and should be celebrated for it, she made a bundle, justly deserved. What she thinks about a subject, well, debate her on it if she's willing to listen, if not, leave her alone. We are all entitled to a bit of peace and civility.

New Zealand's Top 50 Plank list of 2019

The Planks of 2019. What is a plank? Ask yourself when reading the name, plank or not? If yes, they're a plank (this is all NZers apart from two mentions at the bottom).

1. Mike Hosking 2. Helen Clark 3. The Blues 4. Jason Kerrison 5. Iain Lees-Galloway 6. Matthew Hooton 7. Kim Hill 8. John Key 9. Clarke Gayford 10. Fletcher Building

11. Russell Crowe 12. Duncan Garner 13. Tau Henare 14. Mark Richardson 15. Eric Watson 16. Lisa Prager 17. Lianne Dalziel 18. The Breakers 19. Jack Tame 20. Jesse Mulligan

21. Peter Thiel 22. The Warriors 23. Sam Neill 24. Lorde 25. Nick Smith 26. Clare Curran 27. Dan Corbett 28. John Campbell 29. Judith Collins 30. NZRU

31. Russel Norman
32. Auckland City Council
33. NZ Bus 34. Shane Jones 35. Heather du Plessis-Allan 36. Bryce Edwards 37. David Farrar 38. Lizzie Marvelly 39. Chris Trotter 40. Auckland Grammar

41. Justin Lester 42. Colin Craig 43. Trevor Mallard 44. Air NZ 45. David Seymour 46. Simon Barnett 47. Patrick Gower 48. NZ Herald 49. Aussie Banks 50. Guy Williams

Badge of Distinction for non-New Zealander: Scott Morrison
Honourable non-New Zealander mention: Elon Musk

Merry Saturnalia

December 17th is the Roman festival of Saturnalia, today we call it Christmas.

Why is Christmas December 25th? Over time, Saturnalia grew until it occupied most of December. Somehow Christmas was changed into a date closer to the end of the month rather than in the middle of it.

Read about Saturnalia here: https://www.historyextra.com/period/roman/how-did-the-romans-celebrate-christmas/

When did Christmas start to replace Saturnalia? The earliest references to a celebration we'd identify as Christmas, occurred in Rome in the 4th century.

UK Election Result 2019

A stunning win then for the Conservative party in the UK General Election. Surely this must put to rest any doubt over Brexit. Areas that voted Leave in the EU referendum, have swung to Conservative. The Brexit party played a part, taking votes away from Labour and acting the spoiler, making it possible for Conservative to come through the middle.

Jeremy Corbyn is a good campaigner, but his message was too confused for people to digest. Johnson kept it simple and avoided tricky questions. He was pilloried over "Fridgegate" but it hasn't hurt him (this was where he hid in a chiller to avoid a journalist).

Jo Swinson lost her seat so the Liberal Democrats will need a new leader. They'll be soul searching. The Scottish National Party have made gains but they'll largely be irrelevant as the Conservatives can govern alone. The same for parties in Northern Ireland.

Now the UK has to buckle down and get the job done. Leave the EU and sooner rather than later. Labour will learn, under new leadership and with Brexit embraced they can win support for their campaign to save the NHS. Labour will be back but Johnson now has 5 years to enjoy. He'll be a happy man tonight.

Basically Gmail is Rubbish

I mentioned before that gmail became slow when they upgraded last time. Things have improved but only slightly. Another problem I've encountered is that emails that have been read, or marked as read, will still be showing as unread when I next log in. That's annoying. And this problem persists too when I delete the email, it will still be there in my primary inbox, or social or promotions tab when I return. I've even gone into the bin and removed items from there as well, only to have them return on next log in.

I searched around and found various ideas on how to fix this glitch. None of them worked and I think they (gmail) don't want any of it to work, they want you in the site for as long as possible, that's what it's all about. I've mentioned this glitch to people and they've said they have the same issue.

It's bloody dishonest of Google to allow such a thing; Yahoo and Outlook/Hotmail do not stoop this low. As a consequence I rarely use gmail, it is only used for some things.

New Zealand Glaciers Turn Pink

The Australian bushfires have turned New Zealand glaciers red and pink. The dust from the fires has crossed the Tasman sea and settled on the glaciers.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/117907806/how-australias-bushfires-turned-new-zealands-snowcapped-glaciers-red

Clearly as these glaciers are now darker in colour, they'll attract light and so melt faster (white reflects light). GCC is likely to accelerate due to these factors, namely, unforeseen effects causing more change.

Meat-based Meat

Another idea; a lot of talk about plant-based meat. What about meat-based meat. Meat carries with it a lot of energy in a small quantity, that's why humans are omnivores. If they were herbivores they'd spend all day eating plants and have no time left to do anything else. Eating meat is the answer. This is criticised as inefficient but it really isn't, that's why humans domesticated wild animals and started farming.

Lecture over, here's the idea. You have a factory growing beef. It works like a giant sausage factory except the factory grows the meat from basic ingredients. No, I'm not talking about feed lots, this is a factory growing the meat and then you lop off the end product and sell the steaks. When I put this idea to someone they reacted by calling the factory a giant womb, and that's the idea. The brain would be a computer controlling all the inputs. It would also produce fertiliser as a byproduct and it could capture methane (farts and belching) thus preventing greenhouse emissions. What do you think?

Global Climate Change - Carbon Dioxide Sequestration

Here's an idea. Australia has a lot of barren land, otherwise known as desert. Cover the desert in trees or plants and you've got a big carbon sink. So, cover the place in plants.

But wait, I hear you say, the roots would need water. They would and this idea would require some serious engineering. To begin with; plants that take large amounts of carbon dioxide out of the air and deposit it deep in the soil. But at the same time, plants that require minuscule amounts of water.

Then where does the water come from? New Zealand's west coast of the South Island. The coast is the wettest place on planet earth. Then ship that water to Australia and feed it into a trickle irrigation system to keep the plants alive.

See where I'm going with this? Australia has the land, NZ the water. Australia pays NZ for the water, and the earth pays Australia for the carbon sequestration.