Slow Decline of New Zealand

New Zealand is going backwards slowly, inexorably. The latest example of this comes with the news that the country's only rail enabled Cook Strait ferry is to be shut down, with no replacement in sight. Of course, that's not what the incompetent politicians in Wellington are saying, they're spinning it as saving the taxpayer money (of course they would). 

By doing away with the last rail enabled ferry, the rail link from one end of the country to the other will be broken for the first time since the Cook Strait ferries were introduced in 1962. Before then, rail freight could not be transported on the same wagon right through the country. Instead, coastal shipping was used; for instance from Nelson to Wellington, the journey was by overnight vessel via French Pass, or from Lyttelton (Christchurch) to Wellington. Or we can go farther back, getting from Wellington to Auckland meant taking a ship to New Plymouth and then rail from there to Auckland. 

When the Cook Strait ferries came along, for the first time a rail journey could start in Invercargill at one end of the country in the deep south, and end at Whangarei in the far north, the whole journey could take place with the same wagon taking the entire trip. 

But now, this is all too difficult. The government owned rail company want to replace the ferries they currently run. Those new ferries are intended to be rail enabled, except they're at least four years away and no contract has been signed for their construction. Do you smell bullshit at this stage? I certainly do.

These new ferries won't match the existing infrastructure, so new facilities must be built. The usual way to do this would be to build the new facilities alongside the old, and continue using the old until the new ships arrive. Given this is the most sensible approach, my thinking is the country is being lied to, no rail enabled ferries will arrive.

Future governments will, likely, simply cancel the whole idea of a rail connected country, effectively taking NZ back in time to an age when everything was much more difficult to do. I see this approach happen all the time, and this is largely driven by the North Island who see no point in connecting the whole country as they live in their North Island bubble.

This is another reason to say goodbye to the North Island, the South Island needs to go it alone and achieve independence. If it does not become independent then the South Island will be destroyed by the idiots in the North, mark my words. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/559509/aratere-interislander-s-only-rail-enabled-ferry-to-retire

Not Really American Things

Hah, I knew this; baseball evolved from the English game of rounders and cricket. Little known fact: the first game of international cricket was played in 1844 between Canada and the United States. Canada won, of course. Stick that up your jumper, Donald Trump.

Merger of Hino and Mitsubishi Fuso

I may be drawing a rather long bow here, but I think the proposed merger of truck manufacturers, Hino Motors and Mitsubishi Fuso is a reaction to the growth of China. Their output of trucks and buses have really gathered pace, and this merger of two of the big three truck brands in Japan appears to be a defensive move.

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15720057

A new entity will be formed which will be listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Hino parent, Toyota and Mitsubishi Fuso parent, Daimler Truck of Germany will each have an equal share.

Piers Morgan Interviews Virginia Giuffre's Lawyer

Piers Morgan has conducted quite a sensitive but still somewhat searching interview of Virginia Giuffre's lawyer, David Boies. I found it interesting that he had a senior partner with his firm, spend almost all of their time for years working on the case. They were very thorough, and proved Ms Giuffre's claims.

Mysterious Deaths

I had no idea, but it appears there is a long list of those associated with Jeffrey Epstein who wound up dead. What are the odds?

Virginia Giuffre

It was upsetting to hear of the passing of Virginia Giuffre (nee Roberts), the woman trafficked and abused by Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. 

In 2022 she received a substantial out of court settlement from Prince Andrew. But since, the personal attacks on her became even more unhinged. 

Were these attacks coordinated? Clearly, some believe so, here's a screenshot from one of the biggest conservative commentators on Twitter:

Catturd on Giuffre

The Luxury Products Grift

Who'd a thunk!

China 'will fight to the end'

China appears ready to go the distance, they're not going to buckle.

New Zealand in 1959

A piece of modern social history from New Zealand's National Film Unit, shows what life was like in NZ during the 1950's and 60's. It's fairly accurate, and a lot of what is covered still holds true today. 

However, what stands out for me is just how far NZ has fallen. It is now seemingly incapable of doing anything at all. In this film you can see ships loading at ports, and at the time NZ had the largest fleet of merchant ships in the Southern Hemisphere. You can see it had a military, but what is not mentioned is that NZ maintained a permanent presence in Singapore, defending the region from communist insurgency. Singapore and Malaysia are partly the creation of NZ, not only did they defend them, but NZ brought their brightest to NZ and educated them in its universities. They learnt well and went home to put those lessons into effect.

However, NZ lost its way. What went wrong? It became complacent and allowed weak people to take charge. From 1984 onward, NZ has been in gradual decline. There are signs of improvement, more so in the South Island, but overall things have gone backward. If you doubt this, consider some of the statements made in the commentary; unions were compulsory and workers experienced high rates of pay and low cost of living. Now, households on two incomes can barely manage. Homelessness was virtually unknown because anyone who lacked accommodation was given it, and often a complete house at that. They'd pay rent, but that was in proportion to how much they earned. 

What happened to the National Film Unit? It was sold to Television New Zealand for a derisory sum. That tells the story of NZ right there.

Yes, I'm a stuck record on the subject, but the only way I see any semblance of NZ surviving is if the South Island goes it alone. The North Island in its madness will sink the whole ship otherwise. 

Kyle Kulinski Accuses Trump Regime

Could this be happening? Kyle Kulinski is claiming that children are being denied lawyers and are being forced to represent themselves in deportation hearings in the US. 

Kemi Badenoch at PMQ's

Kemi Badenoch performs well during Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons:

Where's the Gold?

The price of gold is rising and buyers are taking physical delivery, and not trusting Western banks to store it:

Trade Deals

Is it believable to think countries are lining up to sign bilateral trade deals with the United States. Wouldn't this turn the World Trade Organisation and all previous free trade deals on their heads? 

Take Australia as an example, they have a free trade deal with the US, but that appears to now be worthless.

New Zealand's prime minister, Christopher Luxon has rushed to London to talk to the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer. No doubt, this is so the pair can get their stories straight. For New Zealand, there is a lot at stake; the UK is NZ's eighth largest trade partner, with much deeper cultural links, while China is NZ's largest trade partner by far. NZ has a large trade surplus with China, meaning China buys more from NZ than it sells to it. A larger trade surplus than exists with the US, and China isn't complaining. 

Those countries NZ has a large trade surplus with are: China, USA, Taiwan, Canada, Indonesia and India. My advice would be to wait out the current Trump administration, they're unlikely to last forever and any trade deals appear whimsical to say the least. Any trade partner has to be reliable, and the US has proven they're unreliable.

What do I think will likely happen? NZ will sit on the fence but buckle to US demands, thus wrecking the entire NZ economy. Australia will buckle sooner and they'll go downhill as a result. The UK will buckle immediately. 

But, what I hope will happen is that countries grow a pair and stand their ground. If they don't stand their ground, the US will be emboldened to make further demands.

China has warned any trade deals with the US which also attack China, will result in retaliation. That would be justified in my opinion. Any country rushing to sign a trade deal with the US, under terms dictated by the US, are taking a huge risk if they have a large share of their trade with China. 

Cybertruck Junk

 The Cybertruck is probably the worst car ever made.

United States and India

If they've got any brains, India would be wise to not choose sides in the current trade war between China and the United States. 

Pope Francis

Pope Francis has died, aged 88. He had a good innings, and the thing I liked about him was he lived in a modest sized apartment in the Vatican. Reportedly, he also cooked for himself. The next step is the choice of a new Pope, through the process of a convocation of the Cardinals. I wonder who will emerge from the pack?

Someone on the TV said that when the Pope died, they'd hit his forehead with a hammer three times to confirm he's dead. Imagine sleeping soundly, and then whack - ouch. However, this time it was just the doctor signing off and issuing a death certificate.

Chinese Trump

This guy does Donald Trump well, but he has better hair...just saying:

How Will Caterpillar Handle Change?

 A bit of a case study: I remember when Caterpillar moved its head office in Asia from Japan to China. They saw the future and moved from the fast growing market that was Japan, to an even faster growing one in China.

Caterpillar has manufacturing facilities across the globe, several in China. Other main plants exist in Japan, Thailand, Mexico, Brazil and the UK. The very large dozers, off-highway trucks and such are still made in the USA, but that's it. If you're driving along and see a Caterpillar, it's highly unlikely to be a machine made in the USA. To see those, you have to be on a mine site, or very large construction site, well away from the gaze of ordinary folk.

Given the direction things are headed, how is Caterpillar going to service its customers in the US? All of the main manufacturing bases are now behind Donald Trump's paywall. And it gets worse, all of the parts supply comes from China as I understand it. No matter where the machine is made, parts come from China. With huge tariffs in place, it will become impossible for American contractors to repair their equipment. They'll be forced to use after-market knock-off parts suppliers.

Here's a list of Caterpillar locations: https://www.caterpillar.com/en/company/global-footprint.html

These facilities cannot be relocated easily. And why would Caterpillar even want to, seeing as most of their machines exist outside of the US?

And this problem isn't just reserved for the one brand. Imagine the scale of the problem across all industry in America. Basically, the task of relocating is so big, it could wreck the economy.

[ Edit: Caterpillar has applied for various waivers, we'll have to see how this develops]

Italy's Meloni Representing EU?

Italy's Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni is in Washington meeting with US President, Donald Trump. Hang on, is Meloni representing the EU here, or advancing Italy alone, or even her own agenda? It appears to be a lot of the latter, and less of the former.

All trade deals must go through Brussels. There's no flexibility on the issue, so perhaps Donald Trump is trying to divide and conquer.

Privately, I've been joking that Europe in six months time will have convinced itself that China is wrong, and the US is right. They'll go back to their abuser, all the while saying it will be different this time, they really do love us.

Meanwhile, in Asia they can see this play out and they'll be grouping together, they'll just deal with one another and cut off links with the US. It'll be interesting to see what Japan and South Korea do, but I feel fairly certain that the ASEAN countries will 'choose' China. They have to deal with China day-to-day on all sorts of issues, I cannot see them siding with the US or Europe.

Putin must be laughing his tits off about now. 

245% Tariffs

This is now getting ridiculous. The US has increased its tariff on imports from China to 245%. But electronics such as smart phones and laptop computers are exempt, so what effect will these tariffs have on China? Not much, is my estimation.

Looking into this, I find that clothing, along with toys and sporting goods make up over a quarter of all US imports from China. Going into the summer therefore, the US will be missing out on cheap baseball bats and balls. And the price of clothing at Walmart will skyrocket as even alternative suppliers such as Vietnam and Bangladesh have had high tariffs placed on them (although now paused for 90 days).

On the other side of the equation, China has stopped supplying rare earth minerals, which it has a market share globally of 95%. Plus, China has stopped buying logs, beef and soybeans from the US. It can obtain all these from other suppliers; soybeans from Brazil, beef from Argentina, logs from New Zealand and so on. 

Also, I see that China has stopped dealing with Boeing, including buying spare parts. Little known is that Airbus has an assembly facility in China, so they'll be gaining there, and China has its own airplanes, an industry it put effort into since Trump 1.0. They could see where things were headed and planned ahead.

Factor in also, China is building fast rail links, it does not rely on air travel as much as other countries do, it is similar to Japan in that respect.

China's president, Xi Jinping is visiting ASEAN countries right now, shoring up relationships. The ASEAN region is China's biggest trading partner. Something I think the US has got badly wrong, it singled out this region for punitive tariffs, effectively driving China and the ASEAN countries together.

In short, I don't see China backing down as it can do without the US. Anything it finds it really does need, it can afford to do without until a substitute is found. Reportedly, the US has asked Europe to decide, them or China. I'm assuming Europe will buckle and choose the US. But any country watching this would be wise to observe and do nothing. What we are witnessing is a huge act of self-harm and Europe may be about to jump onto a sinking ship.